you're watching beyond one hundred days... in less than 2a hours polls open here in america for the critical mid term vote. across the country politicians are up for election — and for donald trump who today is campaigining in three different states, there is much at stake. in these closing days republicans and democrats have sent their biggest stars on to the campaign trail. democrats want to invite caravan after caravan of illegal aliens. the character of this country is on the ballot. who we are is on the ballot. and christian and i have been to west virginia, one of donald trump's favourite states to find out what matters to voters there. guns, god and coal, that's west virginia. i will throw in another one, and that is donald trump. also on the programme... winter is coming — and so are sanctions — as the us reimposes measures ta rgetting iran's energy, banking and shipping sectors.

and katty‘s new neighbour — wayne rooney — is to return to the uk and the england squad for a friendly against the us — despite having retired from international football several years ago. hello and welcome — i'm katty kay, with me is christian fraser in washington. midterm elections don't usually get alot of attention — this one is very different. the energy is intense, the mood here is feverish — on both sides. and it is all about donald trump — the man who is campaigning today at a frenetic pace with 3 big rallies across the country today — ohio, then indiana ending tonight in missouri. for his supporters this is a chance to show they really like this unusual presidency and a short time ago he spoke before seetting off. i don't know if you report it that way, but there is a great electricity in the air, like we haven't seen, in my opinion, since the 16 election. so something's happening. we'll see, but i think we are going to do very well, and you're going to have

three very excited stops. for democrats its their first chance to translate their anger into action and today president obama was pressing their case. you're going out there. you're going to make sure people don't start making things better. you're going out there. you're going to make sure people vote to start making things better. cheering and when you do that then the spirit of america's going to shine, all right? not sure about the leather jacket. a reminder — the phrase mid term applies to the elections that are held here every 4 years, in between the presidential elections, to elect members of congress. so all 435 seats of the lower house of representatives are up for election, and remember house members only serve 2 years. they will also be voting tomorrow for a third of the seats in the upper chamber, the senate. senators serve six year term. now that we have got the public service announcement out of the way, we can get on with a packed programme. joining us from capitol hill is our political analyst ron christie who served as an advisor to george w bush.

the one big thing you are watching for as the results come in? turnout, who is actually going to show up to the polls. trump voters who are enthusiastic about the economy and the way things are going, will they show up in droves, or are the democrats, those who believe donald trump and the republicans are taking the country in the wrong direction, will they show up in droves and try to put a limit to some of donald trump pass to ability to legislate in washington. this isn't the weather channel but whether always matters. tomorrow threatens to be a big day of storms. it will affect florida, tennessee, west virginia, how much are those storms going to affect turnout and which way could not play? it has a potential to have a dampening effect on people going to the polls. nothing worse than

going out in a thunderstorm and say, you know what, i'm going to stay at home, rather than going out of the election. in northern virginia, right outside washington, dc, the airwaves are being flooded with radio adverts, commercials, trying to get people enthusiastic to go out and vote. i think loyalists on both sides, regardless of the weather, will bow out. it is a question of how many independents and those not inclined to show up are actually going to go out and cast their ballot. we talked about the governors. i want to focus tomorrow night on those races in the midwest. those states donald trump took in 2016, the likes of ohio, iowa, wisconsin, those are state—wide elections. the democrats are running the republicans quite close. they are, ohio is a clear bellwether state, the republicans are fighting very ha rd

state, the republicans are fighting very hard to hold on there. look at michigan, and wisconsin, these were the battle ground for donald trump taking victory in 2016. it seems like a lot of the momentum is on the side of the democrats. but i must say, look further down, look at florida and georgia, there are a lot of governor florida and georgia, there are a lot of governor races. florida and georgia, there are a lot of governor races. so florida and georgia, there are a lot of governor races. so much of the attention is on trump. but i'm looking at who will control the governors' mansions. because they will be in charge of the consensus, in charge of putting people in congress, in that building behind me, which is very important and is often overlooked. thanks very much. we will be focusing on the governors races tomorrow night because they have a chance to tilt their state in their political direction. they can institute legislation which is either pro—democrat or pro republican. and in 2020 in america there will be a census. that is when all of the districts are drawn up.

if you are the governor it is not like the uk where it is done by the civil service, it is political in america. if you are the governor you can control the drawing up of the districts, therefore you have an influence on how your state will vote in the next elections. yes, the former governor of newjersey said you don't understand the power we have in those positions. we picked the people who count the votes and how the districts are drawn up. it's an important one to watch, even though it won't be the main fare. after two years of donald trump in the white house, you can view these mid terms as the first report card we have had on the president's performance so far. he is not on the ballot but he's put himself front and centre of the republican campaign — criss—crossing america, in fact it feels like the final days of a presidential campaign. and since christian's here covering the election with us, we couldn't resist the chance to introduce him to a trump rally. we took him — and his itunes playlist — on a road trip to the state of west virginia, to see how the president's message is going down with the voters. # to the place i belong # west virginia #. you know, west virginia is one of donald trump's favourite states.

back in 2016 he won the election here. he got almost 70% of the vote. and you know why? because it's coal country, you land in charleston, you see the rolling hills, and i guess they believe the energy policies he's putting in place are reviving this state. which may be why donald trump has been to this state eight times since he got elected, and why he is here again in the final days of the mid term campaign. at the bottom of this hill is huntington. and we're going to go and see tom roten, a radio host, do you remember him when we had him on the show? he's from wvhu. yeah, that's a conservative talk radio host, right? we had him on a while ago. yes. is that something people are at all concerned about? they are concerned about three things, really, coal, guns, and god. tom has a daily morning show and gets a lot tom has a daily morning show and gets a lot of callers, so he's a pretty good barometer

of the republican mood. guns, god, and coal. that's it. that's west virginia. but i'm going to throw another one in there, as well, and that's donald trump. yes, he's quickly moved into at least the top four, and maybe the top three. and i think it's because what he says resonates with all of those other three. he talks about those things, he has talked about religious freedom, he's talked about protecting our second amendment rights, and certainly you can ask any west virginian, particularly down at coal country, we are seeing the coal trains rolling in. there is such a fierce debate about immigration. i've just come from washington where they are appalled by some of the things he's said. but i listen to the radio here and it's a different story. yes. why? well, i think because we want to see west virginians taken care of. so, tom was good, but i'm still confused. are they voting in west virginia for party, policy, orforthe person? there's a bus—load of supporters here, let's go and ask them. what's the most important issue for you in this election? what's the thing that matters most?

to me it is about one, jobs in our country. americans working again. what is the most important thing in this election for you? the economy. the economy, i agree. and is donald trump the only one that can breathe new life into the economy? he is the only one who's tried to fix it, for 60 years. you know? they've been working on it for years and years and years and couldn't get it done. he's done it in six months. donald trump has set a frenetic pace this week, and this one reminds me more of his presidential election campaign rallies. here we are in a small hangar. air force one is going to pull up behind the stage, he's going to get out to a rock star's welcome. i mean, this is made for television. and you can see why he loves it, because he arrives to these adoring crowds. you are right, west virginia is a state where he's very comfortable, they love him, he shows up and everybody cheers. # proud to be an american #.

he has flown into huntington to try and make a difference in a number of close races in the state. after years of rebuilding other countries we are finally rebuilding our country. cheering we've ended the war on beautiful, clean coal, and we're putting our coal miners back to work. we love you, president trump. that's right. if they win here trump will claim the credit. but if republicans lose... if that's what you end up with, it's your fault, not mine. remember that. good drama. i mean, you've been to a lot of these, what do you think? well, closing days of the campaign he hits the big three things here, coal, it's west virginia, immigration, and then of course appeals to women voters because they know they've got a problem with women. so, their instincts, jobs, immigration, coal. but he needs them

to go out and vote. he needs them to vote for republicans on tuesday. take me home to west virginia. i cannot get rid of that song since we went. interesting going to west virginia, wasn't it? derrey. there is nothing in politics like a trump rally. —— varies. i took a lot of pictures. it interesting to see politicians at that level, in person, and how they hold a crowd. he does hold a crowd. the drama of air force one. we don't have that over here. i'm sure theresa may would give her right arm to have something like that. not a piece of velcro insight. a reminder that our special election programme starts at 7 eastern tomorrow night, which is midnight gmt. and what a night we have ahead of us. we will be following the results as they come in from east to west coast.

let's remind you where president trump's approval rating is right now. 46% approve of the job he is doing. 52% disapprove. those are the lowest ratings going into a mid term since harry truman in 19116. when the economy is doing so well, as well. they say a record 3a million people have already made their choice nationwide in postal ballots and early voting. to put that in perspective — in 2014, 27.5 million people turned up for early voting. to put that in perspective — in 2014, 27.5 million people turned up for early voting. in texas, the number of early votes has exceeded the entire turnout in 2014. so can we glean anything from those votes as to which way the senate and the house races might go? with us is the republican pollster and political analyst kristen soltis. thank you for coming in, kristen? the issue of the president's approval ratings, how many americans think the country is going on the right direction? 74%. if his big achievement is the state of the american economy, why isn't he out

in every single rally talking about that, talking about the economy, talking aboutjobs, that, talking about the economy, talking about jobs, which that, talking about the economy, talking aboutjobs, which is what paul ryan apparently called him on sunday to say, please, mr president, talk about the economy but he's talking about immigration. they would rather that because the economy is where his numbers are the best in polling. hisjob approval on the economy is much higher overall. when you ask which party do you trust more to handle various issues, republicans do poorly on things like health care, which is what democrats wa nt health care, which is what democrats want to talk about, but the economy isa want to talk about, but the economy is a republican strong suit. my suspicion is that the president first of all emotionally believes the immigration issue is what is based once to hear. secondly, voters don't turn up to say thank you, thank you the something you've already given us, but instead, what is coming in the future. that's why when the president talks about jobs he is also talking about jobs, not mobs, tapping into the emotional fear argument to contrast with the economic argument. you are right.

paul ryan is saying this is the conventional wisdom. but as we know donald trump is a politician who has a lwa ys donald trump is a politician who has always said, take it, shove it in the trash, because it has never worked for me before. you republican leaders have always told me how to run my campaign but i know best. is his got right on this one? one interesting data point suggests the president is may be onto something, and that is the level of an choosy as we are seeing in the polls and republican voters. when you have these wave elections, one party's vote rs these wave elections, one party's voters are excited, and the others are depressed. in 2006, democratic vote rs are depressed. in 2006, democratic voters were excited, republicans stayed home. 2010 it was the opposite, republicans were infused, democrats stayed at home. this time, both parties excited, and i think thatis both parties excited, and i think that is because of the president. let's have a look at some statistics. those who intend to vote, looking at which way they will vote... the majority say they will vote... the majority say they will

vote for the democrats. is that worrying to trump? that suggests a pretty good but not necessarily wave kind of night for them. it depends geographically where that 7% is coming from. the races in the us senate tends to be in the states where the president is popular. a lot of races that will decide who is in the house of representatives will be in the suburbs, particularly in blue states, many places like new jersey and california. that is really where control of the house of representatives is. i keep seeing this graphic. it talks about the two americans who will be voting tomorrow. white women with bachelors degrees to the left towards democrats. ben white men without bachelors degree is going the opposite way. that —— and white men without bachelors degrees going opposite way. trump tapped into

this. he really put together that coalition in the former blue wall states. states were a lot ofjobs had gone away because of the decline of manufacturing. trump could make that sort of altman. that isn't necessarily the battle ground for the house of representatives where it is going to be educated women playing a big role. —— trump could make that sort of argument. there is an advantage amongst white educated women, apparently, is that true?|j think women, apparently, is that true?” think it will be a sizeable advantage, definitely into the double digits. thanks very much. really interesting. in other news... turkish authorities say saudi arabia sent a toxicologist and a chemical expert to istanbul days after the dissidentjournalist, jamal khashoggi, was killed at the saudi consulate there. a turkish official says ankara believes the aim was to clean the premises before local police were admitted. meanwhile, the white house says president trump had a briefing this morning from cia director

gina haspel, after her return from turkey. in myanmar, aung san suu kyi's party, the national league for democracy, has suffered a setback in the latest set of by—elections. it lost a number of ethnic minority constituencies that it had previously held. in 2015, her party ended decades of outright military rule in myanmar, winning more than eighty per cent of available seats. but now, analysts say ms suu kyi has alienated minority voters by failing to end regional conflicts. the empty moat around the tower of london has been filled with ten—thousand flames, to mark the end of the first world war. beefeaters lit them one—by—one — in an installation by tom piper, who filled the moat with ceramic poppies four years ago. the ceremony will be repeated each night until remembrance sunday next weekend. that looks so great. the spice girls have announced their first tour for

a decade with tour dates next year. they revealed details of the reunion tourin they revealed details of the reunion tour ina they revealed details of the reunion tour in a social media video on monday and suggested the possibility ofa monday and suggested the possibility of a world tour. victoria beckham will not be taking part because she says she has other business commitments. so glad we got that in! well one of the most heated races in the country is that one in texas — where the senate race pits republican incumbent ted cruz against democratic challenger beto o'rourke. millions of dollars have been poured into this contest that has grabbed national headlines. the bbc‘s gary o'donoghue is in houston for us and we can cross to him now. what is remarkable about beto o'rourke is the way he has energised grassroot voters and the money he has got along the way. completely dwarfed spending by the ted cruz campaign. outspent by multiple factors. i was at a rally he had this morning. i was at a nightclub

at eight o'clock this morning in houston. i wasn't there from the night before, you will be pleased to hear, but he had a rally there this morning. it was full of young people, largely female, to serve would say, but very young and very energised. very up for it. he is quite a performer. he struts about the stage. he really gets them in the stage. he really gets them in the palm of his hand very much. and it was an interesting contrast between that and an hour later at a church we went to where ted cruz was having one of his gatherings. much, much older. much, much more male dominated audience, if you like. you could really see the demographic the feel of the two campaigns within that short time of one another. —— demographic feel. ted cruz is slightly ahead. but it has widened in the last month. what beto o'rourke says about that is that

they are not polling the people who are supporting me, these are new, young, independent voters and the pollsters are not to them. the media and the democratic party sees something in him, something of a saviour, the youth, the energy, his ability with crowds, it reminds me of 2008. but is it too soon for democrats to really think they can flip texas? it has been the holy grail for years, flip texas? it has been the holy grailfor years, is this flip texas? it has been the holy grail for years, is this the moment texas turns from more republican to more democratic? we are all board about that story, board of the story which says texas is about to flip democratic. that the demographics will change it. more people in the urban areas will change it? he has managed to get a significant amount of people out for early voting. the

numbers are extraordinary in texas, we are talking a five fold increase amongst young people. if you take 30 most populous counties here, their turnout has already exceeded the total turnout from 2014 in the midterms. the question is, how many of those will vote —— would have voted tomorrow anyway, but the issue here is, ithink, texas is voted tomorrow anyway, but the issue here is, i think, texas is still very red, it is still somewhere with a lot of conservative voters. if you look at hispanic voters, a good chunk of those are still social conservatives. you stay out of those nig htclu bs conservatives. you stay out of those nightclubs because we want to talk to you about that race tomorrow night. chuckles well earlier we heard the republican perspective — now it's time to hear from the democrats about what they expect from these elections. sabrina singh is a spokeswoman for the democratic national committee and shejoins us now. welcome. when i heard nancy paleaaesina interview this week i heard her say that not that she thought the democrats would win, but

they definitely would. —— nancy pelosi. we are competing and fielding candidates across the country. we have 25 districts hillary clinton won, and we have the opportunity to flip some of those. the point is that the battle ground, we are looking at 100 seats and we are competing in. we're putting republicans on defence. we are talking about health care, protecting people with pre—existing conditions. the republicans are touting donald trump smacker divisive rhetoric and we have put them on their heels. —— donald trump's divisive rhetoric. my feeling is that donald trump is campaigning on the senate. you need tomorrow night a net gain of two. 26 of the 35 senate seats are not

democrat. ten of those are in state donald trump won. you are on the defensive when it comes to the senate. yes, we certainly have the complete everywhere up and down the ticket. do you still think it is in play? i do. i said the same thing about the house, i am consciously optimistic about the senate. do not count anybody out. i think nate silver predicted everything correctly apart from heidi. we have incredible candidates from tennessee to jackie rosen in nevada, and our arizona candidate. the big thing we are talking about is health care. if republicans were so proud of what they did in congress, which was try to repeal and sabotage the law, they are not talking about that, they are talking about campaigning for people with pre—existing conditions. in missouri we are running an ad on that. he is leading the lawsuit to gut pedometer banana macro —— to gut

obamacare! the gut pedometer banana macro —— to gut obamaca re! the republicans gut pedometer banana macro —— to gut obamacare! the republicans are not talking about the tax cuts to the elite. there has certainly been a lot about the flip on obamacare. people in the uk look at donald trump, they see this as a referendum on donald trump. they see the problems with the language the president has used. and they cannot understand why this race is as close as it is, surely the democrats should have taken it because ofjust that. we have the momentum on our side. look at what we saw after trump's inauguration, from the women's marches, the protests that happened in march and april of this year, to the brett kavanaugh issue. things will always be close. trump's people are engaged, but so are we.

thank you very much. interesting, cannot wait until tomorrow night. so many seats are in play. we will talk plenty more in the rest of the programme. this is beyond 100 days from the bbc. coming up for viewers on the bbc news channel and bbc world news — iran vows to defy new us sanctions on its oil and banking sectors, while the us insist they'll continue to exert relentless pressure on iran. and we'll be dusting off the crystal ball — to get a prediction from an expert who's been crunching the numbers on how the mid—term elections will turn out. that's still to come. and we will be watching the governor races. they are all in play. this is a critical midterm election. that is all still to come on the programme. . . good evening. no real need to wrap up too much

against the cold this bonfire night. it has been pretty mild out there. quite cloudy, the odd spot of rain, you can see this cloud feeding in from the south on the satellite picture. there is another area of cloud moving in from the west, we'll feel the effects of that during tomorrow. but with this sort of weather setup, we bring in a southerly wind and that is what has been introducing the mild air across the country. it stays relatively mild by day and night through the next few days. often quite windy, the wettest of the weather to be found in the west. that's not to say there won't be any rain further east, in fact, to this evening and tonight central and eastern areas could just catch the odd spot of rain, the odd drizzly shower here and there. but equally, there will be clear spells and perhaps the odd mist and fog patch. further west, northern ireland, west wales, the south—west, also the western side of scotland, a greater chance of seeing the odd spot of rain. so we go into tomorrow, maybe a few fog patches first thing, and for central and eastern areas, a lot of dry weather, some sunny spells, equally,

just one or two light showers drifting through at times. further west, a greater chance of seeing some patchy rain through the morning and by the afternoon, into cornwall and the western side of wales, we're likely to see some heavier rain starting together. this could even provide the odd flash of lightning and rumble of thunder. and things will start to turn wet across northern ireland as we go through the afternoon as well. it will be quite windy day, particularly for western coasts, where we could see gusts of 40—50 mph. but that wind still coming from the south or the south—east, wafting that mild air in our direction. so particularly across a south—eastern corner, if you get some sunshine, maybe 17, maybe 18 degrees. and it stays largely dry in eastern areas for tuesday evening. out west, this rain makes a bit more progress, some of it heavy, possibly thundery. as they go into wednesday morning, we will see a bit of rain in eastern areas at this stage. this warm front here will make for a soggy start across the south—east of england. but for a good part of the day, we will see rain clipping into the south—west, parts of wales, northern ireland particularly and the western side of scotland. further south and east, some blustery and potentially

thundery showers blowing in as the afternoon wears on. temperatures down a little bit but not bad for this time of year, 12 or 13 degrees. we keep a relatively mild feel as we head towards the end of the week, it will often be windy and there will be rain at times. this is beyond one hundred days. i'm katty kay in washington and christian fraser is with me. our top stories: in a frenzied last day of campaigning before the us mid—term elections, donald trump will address rallies in three states this evening as his presidency is put to the test for the first time. with the democrats hoping to take control of the house of representatives, their star campaigner, barack obama, steps up the rhetoric in virginia. coming up in the next half hour: iran's president vows to defy sanctions imposed once again by the us, declaring that his country is in a state of "economic war". and back on the campaign trail, we've been to arizona to meet the people voting on a single issue — health care. here's a tweet president trump sent out on friday.

it is an image taken from the game of thrones. a play on their theme, winter is coming. well, those sanctions have arrived. today, the united states reimposed all the sanctions on iran it had lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement with some temporary exemptions. president trump says they are "the strongest sanctions that our country has ever issued." in a letter to the un chief, antonio guterres, iran said the sanctions were "irresponsible conduct, brazenly, boldly and blatantly" defying a un security council resolution. the bbc‘s global affairs correspondent, naomi grimley, has more. death to america, shout these protesters in tehran. burning the american flag is a yearly ritual on the anniversary of the seizure of the us embassy in 1979. this week, though, extra antagonism as america reimpose as its oil

and financial sanctions on iran. the trump administration wants to reverse a deal brokered by barack obama. the new sanctions target key pillars of the iranian economy, including oil, shipping and banking, with more than 700 entities being targeted. but eight major importers of iranian oil, including india and japan, have been granted temporary waivers. at the centre of this effort, and there are multiple lines of effort, but at the centre of it is an unprecedented campaign of economic pressure. our objective is to starve the iranian regime, our ultimate goal to convince the regime to abandon its current revolutionary course. european powers remain committed to the original iran nuclear deal.

they object to the sanctions, but that puts them at loggerheads with the us. ordinary iranians are bracing themselves for a rocky time ahead. the economy has had a tricky year with oil sales already dropping. the impact will be felt in many ways. people are having less access to food, medicine, jobs are being cut, and rising prices, so there is a lot of anxiety and uncertainty. but iran's president says his country won't be cowed. translation: the americans should be punished forever, they are bullying a great nation with an old cultural heritage, it is unacceptable to our state. president trump says he wants a new dealfor the iranians, which will see them stop there nuclear programme and abandon proxy wars in the middle east. so far, though, there seems little sign of that happening.

naomi grimley, bbc news. well, for more on the decision to slap sanctions back on iran, we are joined now by former us defense secretary, william cohen. i'm in the presence of secretary cohen, finally! let's talk about the sanctions and what they might do. the administration says they bought around the table last time, did the? i take it back. i think they did bring them to the table because you had not only the united states but many of our allies joining with that along with russia and china. the difference may be quite separate this time with china and russia not being as willing to join this time with china and russia not being as willing tojoin i run. so i think they did bring them to the table. iam not think they did bring them to the table. i am not sure they will bring them to the table this time. what president trump is seeking to do is to bend around to his will and, if they cannot bend them to his will,

to break the economy, that is what he is seeking to do at this point, either agree to renegotiate this on my terms or we will impose such sanction to make it so difficult to do business that you'll economy will not be worth having. where does this leave the country is on my side of the pond, the europeans were trying to keep this deal alive? it will separate the united states from the europeans even more. most european countries believe that varane complied with the agreement made. whether you agreed whether it was tough for restrictive enough, nonetheless they signed up to it. the belief that i run had complied with it and therefore i really upset with it and therefore i really upset with the president's take on this, but whether or not they will join because they fear the us will respond against them with more sanctions, they might even demand that the financial transactions that

go to the swift system will be imposed to break iran even further and will drive a bigger wedge between the eu and us. the first two yea rs of between the eu and us. the first two years of the trump presidency saw america pull out of thejcp o a, now hours were going to the midterms, where do you see america's relationship and response to iran going over the next two years of the trump presidency, and is impacted by this midterm elections tomorrow?” think it will be impacted. if the democrats want to take over the house of representatives they will try to alter the president's policies to the extent that they can. it will be divided at best so how much power they will have to put pressure on the president to alter his course of action remains to be seen by not sure the democrats will be up front in trying to restore these relations with iran. does iran

become a flash point of this administration over the course of the next two years? not only, we have to do with china on a larger scale because number one we have something of a trade war taking place. it could erupt into a conflict depending on what happens and how we treat taiwan, how the chinese look at our treatment of taiwan and whether we are supplying aggressive or offensive weapons that would be a red line for them, we also have problems with the south china sea in terms of whether or not that could end up in a confrontation. see you think that is more of a likely conflict area? the consequences of that greater than iran. iran are limited in what they can do. they threatened to send ships to the golf which could impede the shipment of oil coming in which would spike oil prices, i'm not sure they will do that, they could increase acts of terrorism that could against them by the world

community, it could succeed in solidifying iranians support for the regime and iranian hatred for the united states which will not bode well for the future, the options are limited, they could invite russia in to help provide for the security in the event that these tensions get ratcheted up to the point where they feel that we might launch an attack, they may ask for russian help. thank you forjoining us. i get the feeling that tomorrow this will be the most watched midterm election outside the united states, not only because countries will want to watch whether they have the re—engage with the trump administration but also gives circuit to those countries like brazilfor gives circuit to those countries like brazil for the gives circuit to those countries like brazilfor the on gives circuit to those countries like brazil for the on the gives circuit to those countries like brazilfor the on the right track if he wins tomorrow night, if he wins the house, that would be an extraordinary development. and there is so much global interest in this particular american president. let's face it — we all wish we had a crystal ball going into the mid—term elections, and now we get to speak to a man who does.

or at least that's the name of his forecast. larry sabato from the university of virginia's center for politics has been crunching the numbers for months and joins us now. lowry, good to have you on the programme. when you and i spoke in charlottesville, virginia, back in the spring you told me this would be a much tighter midterm election than perhaps democrats thought it would be back then, you are right, it is a tight election. why is it so tight? it is tight because donald trump has the dedicated loyalty of millions of people in a way that few politicians have. they all have big constituencies, president obama certainly had a large one, but they would not necessarily vote in elections just because president obama told them to. trump's follows are different, they appeared to turn up are different, they appeared to turn up in large numbers in many of the

key states were conveniently for republicans they have democratic senators they can defeat. there are over 40 republicans are not standing again in the house. when we talk about incumbents, in the uk elections, if you are the incumbent, you have an advantage, does that set the republicans back a little, that they are defending so many open seats? yes, that is part of it, and you are right. an incumbent has an advantage, but you have to ask, why did so many republican incumbents choose to retire this year? the a nswer choose to retire this year? the answer is they have excellent political instincts or they would not be there and they realised earlier on the disproportionately republican incumbents would lose, thatis republican incumbents would lose, that is what will happen tomorrow. president trump is doing this final swing, he's down in cleveland, ohio, thatis swing, he's down in cleveland, ohio, that is the first of three rallies,

look at the crowd size! it is phenomenal. mr trump always manages to get these big crowds out. these are his die—hard supporters with 74% of americans telling pollsters they believe the country is heading in the right direction, this... you could make the argument the other way, this should be a slam dunk for republicans, shouldn't it? you could make that argument, and look at the economy. usually that should help an incumbent party. this is the donald trump midterm, though, he is the reason why republicans are not going to do nearly as well as the world too. he is highly controversial, he generates a kind of difficulties, to himself and his party, an ohio is a good example, the incumbent democratic senator by all accounts will win easily re—election tomorrow and the democrats are probably going to ta ke and the democrats are probably going to take over the ohio governorship in the great swing state of ohio. we

have got some very smart view was that watch our programme, and i hope the chilling with us tomorrow night from midnight gmt! not nearly as slum at as larry, though. when they look tomorrow, where do they have the look to see if this blue wave that we have talked about is a real thing? as smart. you have to look at different states for different kinds of contests. the house of representatives will be determined by competitive districts that are not red or blue in suburban areas across the country. you cannot look ata across the country. you cannot look at a state, it would be too confusing to block 435 districts. for the senate where republicans are tentatively favoured to take control and add a seat or two, you can look at florida in particular immediately. if the democrats lose the seat they currently have in florida, it will be a long night for

them at the senate. and there are other states as well. what about tennessee? i was speaking to a democrat six months ago who told me he was watching tennessee because florida has local issues, climate change issues, hurricanes, this could change the result in florida. one smart democrat suggested to me tennessee was the state to watch. yes, they made that argument to me and, on our website at least, we have never had tennessee in any other category but republican. it is a deeply red state and that's the kind of state that president trump can send in the gop's direction and thatis can send in the gop's direction and that is exactly what will happen tomorrow, at least for the governorship and senate seat. thank you so much forjoining the programme. i enjoyed it, thank you. this is beyond one hundred days. still to come: affordable access to health care — the issue that's at the top of voters' concerns in the mid—term elections.

hundreds more police officers are being deployed on the streets of london after four murders in five days. the metropolitan police say it's been a terrible few days in the capital. the total number of killings in london so far this year is 118. here's richard galpin. this is where15—year—old jay hughes was fatally stabbed here in lewisham last thursday. there are reports that two men who had been following him in a taxi jumped out and attacked him as he went to get some takeaway food. on the 2nd of november, another 17—year—old was fatally stabbed in clapham, and yesterday a 22—year—old man was found with fatal stab wounds

in bromley. of the 118 murders in london so far this year, police say a significant number were stabbings and today there have been renewed calls for the police to have more funding. it is really important we have all public agencies, councils, the nhs, social services, education, the police, working with central government to solve this problem, but ultimately it means the government has to invest in policing and preventative services too. in a statement today, the metropolitan police described the violence as senseless, but played down the issue of funding. it's notjust a question of funding, you know, we as the police have a big role to play, but this is a collective responsibility. we are always prioritising the work that we do, violence, tackling violence, is an absolute priority for the metropolitan police. but according to some politicians, this wave of violent crime in which many young people have been killed could persist for a generation before it is brought under control. richard galpin, bbc news

in south—east london. in the elections that will take place here in the us tomorrow, there is one issue that stands out over all others, and that's affordable access to health care. in every poll, it comes out near — if not at the top of voters' concerns — and the airwaves are full of competing ads. the bbc‘s james cook reports from sedon, arizona, on how it is playing there. the desert state of arizona hasn't sent a democrat to the us senate for 30 years. but the party hopes its drought here will end tomorrow. do you now know a lot more about health care policy than you did to begin with? yeah, and it's all been pretty much self—taught. if it does, jeffjeans, a throat cancer survivor, will be delighted. a big change for him. iwasa... extremely right—wing, conservative

republican slash libertarian. jeff says he would have died without the health law known as obamacare because no insurance company was prepared to pay for his treatment. well, if somebody is poor and they're diagnosed with cancer without health insurance... they'll die. imean... people that were swindled byjunk health insurance plans, you don't hear them talking about their experience because they're dead. but it's notjust the economy. think about it. look at foreign policy. in sun city, republicans are campaigning on other issues. the speakers here did not mention their botched attempt to repeal obamacare. even the president's son was ignoring the question. sir, what's your message on health care for people here? obamacare extended health coverage to some 20 million americans, but esther albertus is not a fan. it was expensive, she says,

and didn't deliver the care she needed. how much has it cost you overall, being hit by that car? i'm probably into the $300,000 right now. how much? 300,000. $300,000?! mm—hmm. and all i did was go to walmart to pick up a prescription. and so what's your view about obamacare? i hope they repeal all of it. it's horrible. you know, they're calling this a potential swing state for the presidential election. this expert says the law has led to much higher health insurance premiums, but it has risen in popularity despite republican attempts to undermine it. there's been a lot of cuts to obamacare. it's kind of like, you know, dying by1,000 cuts, i mean, is that what happening? what's interesting is it hasn't died yet. at the end of the day, whether or not you like the affordable care act, whether or not you liked president obama, we have thousands, millions,

of people in the us thatneed comprehensive health insurance. and at the end of the day, i think that is what is most important for them. and millions more have it as a result of that law. absolutely. across this spectacular state, and across the country, voters are now making their minds up. nationally, the campaign may have been dominated by the economy and immigration but, for millions of americans, the most pressing, most personal issue, is health care. and how they feel about it may yet reshape the political landscape. was that a film set? stupendous! i wa nt to was that a film set? stupendous! i want to show our viewers ohio while we talk about health care, look at some of these big crowds to date, but i noticed in west virginia he did not talk about health care at all during the hour will be listened to him and that may be because those

pre—existing conditions which james was talking about, the highest number of pre—existing conditions on west virginia where the republicans are ina west virginia where the republicans are in a tight race for the senate seat. the republican shift on the whole issue of health care has been so interesting. in 2016, republicans ran lock stock and barrel against obamacare, the bill that gave americans or access to health care. this time around, a whole load of republicans who voted to get rid of the obamaca re republicans who voted to get rid of the obamacare bill are on the back foot, they are on the defensive on this very issue, on the votes to get rid of obamacare because as james was just saying it is at its highest levels of popularity, this whole thing of pre—existing conditions has been one of the most popular things about obamaca re before been one of the most popular things about obamacare before obamacare, if you had cancer or you had leg problems all you had heart problems or you were pregnant and you wanted

to try and buy health care, the insurance companies could say, i will not give it to you, you are too expensive because you have got this pre—existing condition, that was done away with and people loved it. they love the idea they can go and buy it and at least get insurance. republicans are on the defensive across the country, they say, we will not take your pre—existing conditions, where does the fear factor come from? because they have been repeated republican efforts to repeal obamacare and there are laws going on, 19 different republican parties have joined together to launch a suit in order to repeal that bit of obamacare, yes, it is seen as under threat by voters and they do not want that taken away from them, so i think that is why you have got republicans who have supported in the past repealing obamacare. you remember 2016, supported in the past repealing obamacare. you remember2016, repeal and replace? it was a chance to

rallies like this one. it was all about getting rid of obamacare, you would never hear that today because it has proved to be popular. and joining us again now from capitol hill is ron christie. let me put the question to you that i put the people in west virginia, do you think tomorrow when people go out, they are voting for policy like health care, party all the man that is about to get on the stage in clevela nd ? is about to get on the stage in cleveland? naturally, iwill is about to get on the stage in cleveland? naturally, i will say is about to get on the stage in cleveland? naturally, iwill say all three. many americans will go out and say, is the economy doing right? doi and say, is the economy doing right? do i have a child? do my friends and neighbours feel more comfortably about the economy? and of course donald trump, there will be so many people who will go out motivated to repeated what he has done as well as go out to support what he has done. on that issue of health care, flicking through the briefing booklet, it is staggering the number of races in which democrats are

hitting republicans on that issue of health care, would you have said that was the case four years ago when obamacare that was the case four years ago when obamaca re was that was the case four years ago when obamacare was unpopular... we have lost run in the dark! whatever lighting you look fabulous. have lost run in the dark! whatever lighting you look fabulousm astounds me. eight years ago, where republicans were, we were running aduu republicans were, we were running adult add talking about repealing obamacare are now republicans are running 100% of the other direction and the democrats are the ones with ads are here in the suburbs of washington in swing states saying, the republicans will take your health care away, so it is amazing the transformation we have seen and with the democrats are this is the issue the belief in them. which by the way some smart people predicted would happen. one last question, the house of representatives who had been bullied over the last two yea rs, been bullied over the last two years, they have gone along with donald trump because he is popular in the base, if the house tomorrow,

how are treat him going forward? in the base, if the house tomorrow, how are treat him going forward7m they lose the house tomorrow, republicans will say, we have had it with the tweets and his rants and now we will go it alone, we will do what it takes to get back a majority status, the president has proven he wa nts to status, the president has proven he wants to go out for himself so will be very interesting to see what happens 24 hours from now. you could been a very different america. which is why the mid—term elections are important in themselves and also have a direct impact on the 2020 presidential elections. for the moment, thank you very much for being up there on capitol hill in the cold, rainy weather. wayne rooney, now settling in to life here in washington, is to come out of international retirement to make a farewell appearance for england against the us later this month. it's a friendly match aimed at raising money for his foundation. although some have complained the move sends the wrong messageand that rooney should have been invited to the game as a guest.

former england footballer alan shearer puts it fairly bluntly, "it is an honour to play for england. england should not have to honour you." i don't know... why not? it is a charity as well! yes, sticking with the football theme, a new sculpture of the liverpool football star mohamed salah has also caused quite a stir. the artwork — as seen here — was unveiled on sunday in sharm al—sheikh, egpyt. but many people on twitter have suggested it looks more like the singer leo sayer. it does look like him! or perhaps marv the burglar from the classic film home alone. what is it with sculpture of football players that are slightly odd? i feel now is the perfect moment to remind you of this. the famous — or is it infamous — bust of cristiano ronaldo, unveiled at madeira's airport in march this year. they have replaced that, give no. ——

you know. and before we go, a reminder christian and i will be bringing you special coverage of the us mid—term elections with you — all you need to know about the hotly—contested race from 1900 eastern, that's midnight gmt. we look forward to you joining us, bye for now. no real need to wrap up too much against the cold this bonfire night, it has been pretty mild at the. quite cloudy, the odd spot of rain, all this cloud feeds and from the south, another area of cloud moving in from the west, we will feel those effects tomorrow, but with this weather setup, we bring in a southerly wind and that is what has introduced the milder air across the country. it stays relatively mild by day and night, often windy, the wettest of the weather to be found in the west, not to say there will not be any rain, through this evening until it is central and eastern areas could catch the odd drizzly shower here and there, but

equally clear spells and the odd mist and fog patch. further west in northern ireland, also the western side of scotland, the greater chance of seeing the odd spot of rain. tomorrow, a few fog patches first thing and for central and eastern areas, dry weather, sunny spells, one or two light showers drifting through at times. further west, the greater chance of patchy rain to the morning and by the afternoon, the western side of wales and cornwall likely to see heavier rain, even providing the odd flash of lightning thunder. it will be quite a windy day, particularly for western coast, where we could see gus a 40—50 mph but that wind coming from the south or south east, wafting that mild air in art direction so across the south—eastern corner, if you get sunshine, maybe 18 celsius and it stays largely dry in eastern areas

on tuesday evening. out west, this rain makes more progress, some of the heavy and thundery. on wednesday morning, more rain in eastern areas at this stage. this warm front will make the soggy start across the south—east of england but, for a good part of the day, rain clips into the south—west, northern ireland in particular and western side of scotland. further south and east, blustery and potentially thundery showers, temperatures down a little bit but not bad for this time of year, 12 or 13 celsius, and a relatively mild feel as we head towards the end of the week, windy and rain at times. this is bbc news, i'm clive myrie. the headlines at 8... after four stabbings in five days in london, police say they'll step up patrols, but the mayor warns, there's no quick fix. actually focus on the generation of the realities that a generation before we get the levels of violent crime that are acceptable to our society.

east sussex becomes the latest council, to cut key services to avoid a budget crisis. also coming up, americans prepare to give their verdict on president trump. on the eve of the crucial mid term elections, the republicans and democrats send their big hitters, onto the campaign trail. and, torches are lit around the tower of london, to mark a hundred years since the end of the first world war.