fame and celebrity. in case you want to what it, we will not mention who has won. with me is andrew tuck, editor of monocle, a global news and business magazine. it is good to have you back. let's talk about politico, interesting read, the staggering number of people who will turn out to vote and make their decision, make their voice heard in these mid—term elections. yes, not the numbers you get ina elections. yes, not the numbers you get in a presidential election but they are saying roughly 45% of the people who could vote in an election are going to turn out and that is up about 30 million on last time there we re about 30 million on last time there were mid—term elections, so all of the pollsters have been having to hedge their bets a little bit because they were working on a lower number, now they are trying to work out what it means if so many people turn out. it has transformed expectations in terms of what the results might be, so those who are in the business of predicting are having to rethink that. we have learnt from experience here that the polls can often get it wrong. that is the funny thing. there is

nervousness around the pollsters. they are saying if it all goes to plan this is what we think will happen. they are hedging their bets a little bit. it does seem most people believe that the democrats will regain the house of representatives. so make silver is one of these successful pollsters and put the chance at 87%, but even he is hedging his bets —— nate silva. he says you don't know what will happen on the day. the higher than expected turnout that some argue helps the democrats in terms of who does get out to vote that might not have done so. of course as i have mentioned we will be a cross it all and we will have special programming for you this time tomorrow. in terms of your thoughts on how these mid—term election has gone, i don't know if you have been watching it, some of the rallies that the president has done and the former president barack 0bama, it has been an interesting race, and you can see how the politicians really realise how much is riding on this, certainly donald trump

realises. not only does the rest of his administration rest on this vote but many people feel that the identity of america is up for grabs, and whether you are on the right or kind of liberal, democratic view of america, both camps feel that something is going to be decided today that will set the course of america notjust for the next couple of years, but maybe for a decade or so in the outlook of what you want america to be and that is why people have got so riled up about this on both sides. and actually we will see if the democrats don't do very well tomorrow as the results are out, that party is going to question its future, should it go to the left, should it remain a liberal, middle party? huge amounts of things will be decided in the next 2a hours. party? huge amounts of things will be decided in the next 24 hoursm is not long until the next election in terms of parties who are thinking about who their candidates are, how they will go ahead with their

campaigning etc, two years is nothing. and for the democrats especially, until the dust settles after tomorrow, we haven't really seen anyone come to the front of the democratic party. there isn't a new hillary clinton barack 0bama. and it depends how the voters vote tomorrow. so if they go for the more left candidates, maybe there will be a seismic change in the party. 0therwise, if it stays centre ground with corrie barker, they will be likely to come to the fore. interesting times for sure. the front of the south china morning post has front and centre china's opening up here to stay, quoting president xi as he opened this event, china international import expos to the world, this is an event thatis expos to the world, this is an event that is happening now and they say it will become an annual event, where people will come to china to hear what the message is an

basically to trade with china. this is piece of window dressing and reality as well. the windowdressing is that china realises that this battle with donald trump over trade, they are not looking very good and they are not looking very good and they need to prove that they are willing to open up the country. so yesterday president xi said that if you look at education, healthcare, all of the sectors, telecommunications, we will throw open the door and bring in more people. you heard the story about lego and that's interesting as well because they have also set around intellectual property, if companies come here and trade and set up business and are caught out by people stealing their ideas, we will come down heavily on those. but it is not quite enough. there was no kind of detail around this. many think that he is waiting until he meets donald trump at the 620 in argentina to reveal his hand and try to get over this terrible divide between the countries. to get over this terrible divide between the countriesli to get over this terrible divide between the countries. i was speaking with sha nti between the countries. i was speaking with shanti earlier about the situation between the us and

china on trade, and she was saying she hopes and believes after this week that we might see more of a conciliatory tone from the white house with regards to trade. what is your thinking on that?” house with regards to trade. what is your thinking on that? i did see an infamous trump tweet last week where he said he was speaking with president xi and he said there was a movement around these tricky point. and again you see here in the midterms if he does badly tomorrow thatis midterms if he does badly tomorrow that is partly seen because farmers are suffering and it is having an impact on his grassroots. again there might be some movement. they need to move on. guardian australia, really interesting article about how virgin australia had to rethink its policies with regards to veterans. so on flights they were going to give priority boarding to veterans, that kind of thing. in a similar vein to what goes on in the united

states. but in australia they are saying you are out of touch with our values and culture. this must have been seen as an easy win from virgin australia with a campaign in the media to start to recognise what service men and women do for the country. one of the ideas was, as you say, to recognise troops as they came on board. as soon as this was announced, the associations that represent those men and women said, many of these people are concerned about mental health issues following being in combat for example, they don't want to be called out. they would rather get on the plane and sit quietly and have a quiet journey. please, don't do this. don't highlight who they are. and also saying it goes against the nature of australians who feel that they should be able to serve and keep quiet about what they have done and actually the other airline in australia, qantas, has said we find it tricky because we admire what these people do, but in the end,

what about paramedics, people who drive ambulances. many other unsung heroes. usa today say they have good news about the environment, the ozone layer could be healed in decades because of the worldwide cooperation, the line from the united nations. so nice to hear something positive about the environment, progress being made, it would seem, the news so lately has been very negative. completely and many people latch onto something here which is really interesting which is you take a simple piece of action and you get countries together, you sign up to an agreement, which they did in montreal many years ago and suddenly we are at a point a few decades later where the holes in the ozone are healing both north and south, so above the arctic they believe it will be patched up by 2030, the correct scientific terminology, you will have to excuse me, and over the antarctic by 2060. talking about the

iand antarctic by 2060. talking about the i and the end of big brother, how it changed the face of television, it began in 2000, it ended last night, and big brother, for those who are unfamiliar, is where normal members of the public are in the house together, they lived together for weeks and weeks and viewers vote out ona weeks and weeks and viewers vote out on a weekly basis a member of the household. do you feel it has changed the face of tv, big brother? it has, and you have in the uk and other countries, successors to that, so love island has a similarformat. this was interesting because it put ordinary people together and interesting because i imagine many people around the world would have seen a version of it because it was the beginning of selling these formats heavily. it is all about these reality tv programmes where members of the public can beat with one another and as viewers we are voting on whether they continue or not. -- compete. reality tv you are

right has its roots here and the problem with these shows is that to maintain interest in them you have to ramp up the personalities and the kinds of people. and the extreme behaviour. and in the end people saw it less as a chance to see how an unusual group of people would hold together and more as a freak show. have you done your christmas shopping? i haven't done a single thing. have you thought about it? i intend to think about it on 23 december. goodness me, i am glad you don't buy anything for me. i have seen what is left. it doesn't look good. thank you for coming in. it has been great to have you with us. thank you for your comments and your company. have a really good day. i was see you soon. 6oodbye. —— i will see you soon. hello there. the pressure patterns set up across the uk for the next few days will be crucial to how the weather is going to look and certainly feel. we've got a big area of high pressure over the continent, spinning clockwise, and a big area of low pressure over the atlantic, to the west of us,

spinning anti—clockwise. and this is driving up southerly winds right across the country, this mild air moving up from the mediterranean, through france, and across our shores. but as we go through the next few days, this area of low pressure across the west will slowly encroach into our shore, so although it's going to be mild, it will start to turn windier, and there will be outbreaks of rain pushing in from the west. now, early this morning, it's going to be a largely dry start. some mist and murk around from the bonfires and fireworks from the previous evening. but there will be some splashes of rain pushing into some western areas, but generally light at this stage. and a very mild start to the day, no lower than 8—ii degrees. so for tuesday morning, we start off on a largely dry note for much of england, wales and scotland. there will be some spells of sunshine around, but quite a bit of cloud too. but, as we head on in towards the afternoon, this more active weather front will start to throw in some pretty heavy rain at times to parts of cornwall, devon, in towards western wales as well. could even be a rumble of thunder with this rain as it moves in. could also be pushing into irish sea coastal areas, maybe the far west of north—west england, in towards northern ireland,

certainly be turning wetter here, and then eventually western scotland. and it will be a blustery day for all, but certainly across western areas. temperature—wise, pretty good. further east, where we have the dry and the bright conditions, 17 or 18 degrees. but even further west, with the cloud, the rain and the wind, 13 or 14 degrees. and then through tuesday night, that rain will continue to edge its way eastwards, perhaps not reaching the far east of scotland and england until we head into wednesday morning. but we've got a secondary area of low pressure developing out of this as it moves across our shore, so wednesday is looking particularly unsettled — very windy, cloudy, some heavy rain pretty much anywhere through the morning. maybe a rumble of thunder or two, particularly in these showers, these blustery, heavy showers, which will arrive across southern areas into the afternoon. temperature—wise, not quite as high as monday and tuesday, looking at 12—14 celsius. and it will be a windy day, with gales in exposure, certainly around coasts and over hills. and then as we end the week, well, we maintain a south or south—westerly wind, with low pressure still out

towards the west. but because low pressure will still be close by, it's going to remain unsettled, with sunshine and showers, even longer spells of rain. but again, with the winds coming in from the south, it should be pretty mild for the time of year. good morning. welcome to breakfast with louise minchin and dan walker. 0ur headlines today: american voters deliver their verdict on two years of president trump. i'm not on the ballot, but in a certain way i am on the ballot, so please go out and vote. five men are arrested after a video showing a model of 6renfell tower being burned on a bonfire emerged online. a bbc investigation reveals patients are facing long waits for nhs tests, as hospitals struggle with staff shortages. stocking up. christmas has come early for more than a fifth of us, who have bought the gifts already. i'll be asking if it is just festive excitement or financial necessity. huddersfield will remember

the 5th of november.