doughnuts for voters. thank you. i am running for senate. vote. you're watching a bbc news special — us election day 2018 — from washington. i'm katty kay. and i'm christian fraser. the first polls have closed here in the us midterm elections, with control of both the senate and the house of representatives the big prize. donald trump is not up for election — he is only half way through his term — but the vote is being seen as a referendum on his presidency. we have correspondents spread out across the us — watching the results in florida, newjersey, pennsylvania, and arizona. iam i am ross atkins in our virtual c0 ng ress i am ross atkins in our virtual congress explaining how the elections were, who is most likely to be taking these seats, and what it all means for president trump. there's enormous interest notjust in the us but around the world. we'll bring you the best analysis of the night — here in the studio. the bbc‘s coverage of election 2018 starts now. welcome to this bbc

news election special. 1000 candidates have campaigned for months, billions have been spent, now american voters get their turn. what they have decided we will learn during the course of tonight. the stakes are enormous — both the house of representatives and the us senate are up for grabs. at the moment republicans control both of those and the white house. will democrats now be able to seize back some power? or will republicans increase their majorities in congress? the answer will have a big impact on president trump. he isn't on the ballot, but you wouldn't know it by his campaign schedule these past few days. in a moment, we'll break down the numbers for you, but first let's have a look at why

these elections are so important. every four years, americans vote in what are called mid—term elections to choose their members of congress. these elections don't usually get a lot of globally can —— attention. this time is different. the world really is watching. and the reason is clear, it is all about donald trump. i'm not on the ballot, but in a certain way i am on the ballot, so please go out and vote. americans are choosing whether they want to give this unusual president a mandate to continue his conservative agenda for the next two greves or whether they want to put a halt on that. they know if they have a good note donald trump can do a number of things they will like. maybe more tax and —— cuts, the regulation of the end of energy industry, and tax

laws. he will give a boost to populist leaders around the world. if democrats have a good night they will be able to stop him doing those things. they may also launch a slew of investigations into what they call the most corrupt administration in history, as even the prospect, slim, admittedly, that a democratic house could move to impeach the president. what happens tonight will also have a direct impact on how long mrtrump also have a direct impact on how long mr trump occupies the white house. if republicans do well they will have barely get a bank and they will have barely get a bank and they will rally around him —— they will have a leader to thank. expect those who do not really approve of the president to keep quiet for the next two g reves. donald president to keep quiet for the next two greves. donald trump himself a republican victory will be seen as a vindication of his recent incendiary rhetoric on issues like immigration and national is. seek an expected 2020 campaign with more of the same. —— nationalism. but if a blue wave does come, the picture changes.

republican politicians may decide that donald trump is not so useful to them after all and start distancing themselves from him. and democrats will have choices of their own, do they spend the next two yea rs own, do they spend the next two years investigating mr trump and obstructing everything he proposes 01’ obstructing everything he proposes or do they work with him? does the party tackler will stick to the centre heading into the next presidential election? they are decisions that for now must wait until the final votes are tallied. polls have just closed in the states of georgia, south carolina, vermont and virginia. they closed an hour ago in kentucky and indiana. ok, let's introduce the panel — our political analyst and former advisor to george w bush, ron christie will be with us throughout the night, democratic supporter neera tanden — president of the center for american progress. and for a few hours we have the bbc‘s north america editorjon sopel. ron christie, the one big thing you

are watching fortnights? the suburban vote. it is tevin kok we have just had the polls closed in virginia. pre— close races, one is that virginia beach. if republicans have a chance of holding on, how do they do in the seats? if they go down the democrats could have a good night. if they republicans hold on it might give them optimism heading into some of the other seats. ron is looking into those. neera, what are you looking for? i am looking at the turnout of groups that have not traditionally voted in the midterms, millennials, new voters coming in, we have seen in early voting that it isa we have seen in early voting that it is a much younger electorate than past midterms. jon sopel, what with the election result tell us about the election result tell us about the state of america right now? christian, i think we know that america is divided. has it changed at all since 2016 went donald trump one? i think we will be looking at all sorts of key segments. this is a momentous election. midterms are

often met with a stifled yawn. i don't think this time around. there is huge interest. if the democrats can take control of the house then that will affect the way that donald trump can govern, the decisions he can make. and if donald trump holds on then who is going to say no, you can't do that, are you sure that is a wise decision? huge energy among the voters we have seen over the past few days. turn—out will be crucial. let's just remind you about what the picture looks like in congress right now. who's up for election? and how important are these votes when it comes to the president's agenda going forward? a reminder, blue is democrat and red is republican — the colours are the opposite of the uk. ros atkins is in our virtual congress looking at the key issues. donald trump isn't on the ballot, but his presidency route looms large over these you's mid—term elections. voters will be choosing to delay senators and all 435 members of the house of representatives. there are also thousands of other officials on the ballot. currently the

republicans control both chambers of congress, but can they hold onto them? this is the current make—up of them? this is the current make—up of the house of representatives. the democrats need to take these 25 seats to the majority, and they are confident they can. remember, us voters have a track record of checking their present‘s power. what about the senate? it is the upper house of congress. as you can see, it is tight. but remember, not all of these seats are up for election. it is just these 35. 24 democrats and the two independence that vote with them are defending their seats, nine republicans are in the same position. so to win the senate democrats would need to win every race that they are defending. these ten states will be the hardest for the democrats to retain. two years ago they voted for donald trump in the presidential election. winning them, though, would only give the democrats 49 seats. they would still need to take at least two others currently held by the republicans. and just four are serious targets.

it isa and just four are serious targets. it is a sign of how much momentum the democrats have this year that traditionally republican states like tennessee and texas are in play, but the odds are against them. make no mistake though, if the democrats ta ke mistake though, if the democrats take the house the senate or both, that will have serious implications for the next two years of donald trump's presidency. ros atkins. we are eight minutes into the programme and we can give you one race to call. that is the senate race in vermont where bernie sanders, technically an independent, a lwa ys sanders, technically an independent, always caucus to a democrat, he ran in the 2016 election campaign, he has held onto his seat. that is one hole for the democrats in the senate. no big surprise. he is popular there. —— hold. senate. no big surprise. he is popularthere. —— hold. let us senate. no big surprise. he is popular there. —— hold. let us go live to the southern end of the eastern seaboard. let's go live now to florida and the bbc‘s rajini vaidyanathan. the race in florida, very exciting, very consequential. both the

governor's race and the senate race and a bunch of house races. florida in play tonight. exactly. it really is. i think one thing that is worth noting, this election cycle is just how the demographics in this state really are changing. you have now got more than half of the state of florida under the age of 54. this is a state that was always famous for welcoming retirees. you 110w famous for welcoming retirees. you now have a much and more diverse demographic voting in these elections. what we are hearing from across the state of florida this evening is that turnout is, in some places, at record levels. so far we are hearing that turn out today is favouring the republicans. in early voting, which concluded last week, turnout favour the democratic editor. in 2016 hillary clinton won in early voting. it could come down to how many people turn out today.

we have seen and regular, with his family, if he became the first african—american governor in florida snye, he would be the governor of the third biggest date in the united states, why would that be imported when we look forward to the 2020 elections? -- state. in a way, the governor's race here represent some of the divisions in today's american politics. 0n of the divisions in today's american politics. on one hand you have, as you mentioned there, andrew gillon, he is the mayor of tallahassee, a liberal, progressive politician, believes in a lot of progressive agendas when it comes to healthcare and the economy. and he is the polar opposites, you could say, of his republican candidate, ron de santos who sits on the opposite end of the political spectrum. in many ways that reflects the divide across the country. offered in florida politics can do is try to move more to be sent to try to pick up some of those

floating voters. what we have seen in this particular governor's race is now divided this state has become will stop so that is why the results are so will stop so that is why the results are so consequential when we look ahead to 2020, christian. florida is also interesting because it is a state that donald trump won narrowly. barack state that donald trump won narrowly. ba rack obama state that donald trump won narrowly. barack obama won it as well. it is one of the state that can swing. it has 27 districts. in terms of house races it is also critical as to whether the democrats can take back the house. there are fourin can take back the house. there are four in particular we are watching down there. yeah. i am looking at maybe 6—8 races, because there are some others that are also quite competitive. i will group them for you. there are a couple, including the one in the district in miami, florida's 27th, which are crucial because of the changing demographics. in that race here you have got a hispanic tv anchor running for the republican party and donatell allah running for the

democratic party who is a former member of the clinton campaign. that looks quite close. another race, the 26th district are looking at changing demographics. can the democratic party win in seats that the republicans hold but that have a changing and diverse population? there are other seat in other parts of the state, including rhonda sent us's best grondal sent us's seat where the white woman could be important. they had three women running for the democratic party, pa rt running for the democratic party, part of that circle pink wave up against republican men who are trying to defend their seats. thank you for the moment. we will be back with you through the evening. when we look at these governors because races they become crucially important. in 2020, 2020 won a start to look at the districts of these states. they can have a huge impact. it is worth exponent. we have told you that the house of

representatives and the senate but there are governors because races up there are governors because races up tonight. the centres in america is taken tonight. the centres in america is ta ke n every tonight. the centres in america is taken every ten years. it is taken in 2020, after that the district of your state gets drawn. if you are the governing you get a veto over those districts or you to accept those districts or you to accept those districts or you to accept those district so you can effectively lee newell state either democratic or republican. —— lee newell state. it is a big advantage to president trump into the 2020 election. we are looking at some of the results from a spot that have closed. let's talk to genevieve wood — she's a senior communications advisor at the heritage foundation and is here in washington. good to have you with us. we have had some exit poll data from cbs. two thirds of those who voted today said that donald trump was a factor. the point that really interested me was the most important issue for them was held, 43%, as opposed to immigration, which came second, 23% —— health. does the fact suggest in

the early stages of this evening that donald trump got it wrong with the message he went to the campaign with? i think it depends on who you are trying to motivate. i think the president was very right in thinking a big part of his base, republican base,is a big part of his base, republican base, is very motivated and concerned about immigration. but when you look at healthcare, that is an issue that both republicans and democratic voters are concerned about, maybe for different reasons and they want to see different outcomes. but an away a lot of republicans who are very upset that obamacare is republicans who are very upset that obamaca re is still republicans who are very upset that obamacare is still in place. both of thoseissues obamacare is still in place. both of those issues are playing very well for many on both sides. when christian and i were at a trump rally on friday night, he tried to appeal to women voters in particular, i am looking at the gender gap in georgia and indiana, for example, and clearly women are favouring the democratic party. if that carries on throughout the

course of the night, does the party have a problem? it will depend on how many of those women oppose republicans actually turn out and whether they are looking at the president and would be sent a message to him or if they are looking at specific candidates, with the senate or house, and making decisions there. i don't think there is any doubt that some of the polls show that suburban women are coming out to vote for democratic candidates, yes, that will be a problem for republicans, in specific races. i think when you look at a ball state it has less impact. but it can have real impact when you look at individual congressional districts where these house races are going on and you have more of those folks clustered together. i think that is where you can see bigger impact. what would be a good result, do you think, tonight, for the republicans? looking at the centre in the house, what would be a result that would relieve the white house? —— looking at the senate. picking up seats in

the senate and holding the house. that would be the biggest gift to look for. but if you look at the house in particular, i mean, all the historical evidence would say that the republicans a dolby house, if you look at what the victims do historically. i think three times in the past 100 years, the president in office in theirfirst the past 100 years, the president in office in their first mid—term election has picked up or held seats. so most of the time you lose. the question will be even if democrats take the house, by how much, because a very small majority means it is to be very difficult to move a lot of legislation, or to do things like put forward impeachment trials, if they want to do that, because, you know, house members will be up again in 2020, and their democratic house members that are in very red areas and red states that will not want to go along, it necessarily cover with nancy pelosi's agenda, issues elected speaker. if they have a big win and they have a large majority, there will be able to do a lot more, but i

think with a smaller majority, republicans would look at that and say that was a hold, even if they lost, it would still mean that they did well, because the numbers are so stacked against them. thank you for that. we have one of the result that we can bring you, and that is kentucky's six congressional district. it has been held by republicans. we only have 9% of the precincts reporting at the moment. but 51% have gone to republican, 47 to democrat. but a caveat, looking at those percentages that are in. make a difference whether the 9% of those have come from rural areas of kentucky, all from urban areas, because there is an urban— rural split when it comes to party favourability. more urban areas tend to be more democratic, more rural areas to do more republican. is too early to make a call on kentucky's

six district, but will be watching us to see if the republicans have a chance to take back the house of representatives. jon sopel, looking at the results in the early stages of the evening, what we look at to see whether there is this much talked about blue wave? we get all sorts of figures broken down quite quickly with exit poll data on what percentage of minorities, young people, millennials, women, and we have had a brief world about the role women will play in it. —— word. ifigure could be role women will play in it. —— word. i figure could be critical. from what we are seeing, 2015, when donald trump 152% of white college educated women, which was kind of a huge disappointment to the democrats, i have seen some polls in the past few weeks putting the number of women who are going to vote democrat at 30 points above the republicans. i do believe that for a second big apple the as wide as that. but look so there will be wiped out. a huge number of women

and are switching sides supporting donald trump to supporting the democrats will stop at the telly last night that in donald trump's final rally, there were serious —— there were serious on this, there was ivanka. i think the republicans have suddenly realised that actually theircampaign have suddenly realised that actually their campaign with any of women voters. the medicine to look at. one of the polls gave a 33%, at —— 32 point advantage. what you are democratic colleagues on the ground? others is realistic and democratic party? | others is realistic and democratic party? i think is given in the last week donald trump's broderick around immigration, particularly after the shooting in pittsburgh, and other violence was seen, a unit was truly repellent to a lot of college educated people. only one of the

most interesting things about the bowl so far can and will see if they continue this. but even on colledge why women that by the seller to donald trump seems to be having second thoughts about this, and the gap with the republicans is very much lower than it used to be. a big issue here is that they are voting more democratic than they voted in 2016. or that is what they have been saying in early voting if the polls. the question then is how much more right than because the vote would democratic by five points is one thing, 20 point is another. and how much do what the centres they are of the electorate. right. an educated white college white women, when you are so what is important to them on the issues, they put in pretty high. the economy in the united states is booming. gb is at 2.5%. unemployment is as low as level since 1969, and wages are picking up. if you're a

couege wages are picking up. if you're a college and to get a woman for whom the economy is important, why would you not vote to donald trump? they have express what they are just is, and healthcare have express what they are just is, and healthca re is have express what they are just is, and healthcare is their number one, number two, number three concern. what is true about donald trump is that despite as well as the economy is doing, it is bolasie major resista nce is doing, it is bolasie major resistance in the united states. resistance is fuelled by colledge gen y women. these are women who are going to town halls and we will see tonight in the special elections there have been voting a very high proportion. the big question tonight is whether they vote at the level they are voted before. the truth is, you know, this is a group of people who used to be republican until very recently. they voted with large majorities of republicans. this is why there are so many republican districts. they were known as the security mums in 2014 campaign because they counted george w bush. i think what bothers about donald trump, and you see this polling, is the manner by the tax —— the manner

in which he attacked other people, and isa in which he attacked other people, and is a bad role model. what we also know is how many will compartmentalise their display without the president as the state to the last two years, and whether they vote on matters that are important to them. there is a new group of voters that came out 2016 to donald trump, the pollsters found it so hard to detect. they are a little bit elusive. and this is one to looking at me, as we get more towns coming in. the economy is greatly by 7%. you have afghan american unemployment at the lowest levels yet seen in recorded history, the same with hispanic americans. so a lot of people are looking at the last two years, and they say things are not just last two years, and they say things are notjust going pretty well, covered by wealth me, and why would i want to change course? this limit is hard to bowling quantify. as evening goes on, you have the opportunity to see whether or not thejob opportunity to see whether or not the job bounce is opportunity to see whether or not thejob bounce is real and republicans retain a majority. given the point is made, you surprise,

then, the donald trump didn't spend more time through the campaign trumpeting the state of the us economy, given that you have a story to tell come and every politician says that started when i took over. and that is the other politics. donald trump has a story. several republicans will say please, mr president, could you just talk about... yes, he will be sent to focus on the numbers. donald trump ran on immigration. he ran the wall. he ran on very red meat issues, if you will, that is at his base. there are public is that when it returned are public is that when it returned a majority because of this rhetoric can is good for the republican brand, it is good for the republican party? a lot would say no. and so john, i think the reason that he has not been trumpeting the economy, if you will, is that he would rather focus on these issues. we have crossed once all over the country. nick bryant is in philadelphia in the state of pennsylvania.

—— correspondants. would loom at some women voters, and to some extent, trinity doesn't it campaign, and during this campaign, the summers of philadelphia, where you are, now, at ground zero on each issue of which way to subvert women, aged women, want to vote. kelly times have you and i spoken about this bellwether county in the sewers of philadelphia where you find the soccer mums in the 1980s, the security mums after 2001. in this election can we have in finding a lot of mums who have province with thejob administration. lot of mums who have province with the job administration. i was there today, with thought were stuck in commuter traffic, there were 70 cars bumper to bumper. what it actually was as ca rs bumper to bumper. what it actually was as cars going into the polling station. we haven't seen lions at

the folley station like that in ten yea rs. the folley station like that in ten years. all were striking about those lines was the number of women in those lines during to vote, and the number of women that wanted to vote democrat. brian fitzpatrick is up against a democrat, scott wallace. and a lot of those women are planning to vote democrat. these would have been problems for the clinton in 2016. she didn't get is white college and get women to support her intervention numbers. they chew might be because they add realise they are on television. but that might not be a problem this yearfor that might not be a problem this year for the democrats. that might not be a problem this yearfor the democrats. its india mobilisation of women. it was noticeable thing volunteers doing some last—minute canvassing. so many of them were mothers. they are cheery because they're on the television, not because the result has come in, or because the bride is there. we'll have to come back to

his friends all through the night. nick kommer why we have got you, what struck me that this campaign is this rollercoaster element of it. first of all we had, of course, brett kavanaugh, and then be murder ofjamal brett kavanaugh, and then be murder of jamal khashoggi. and brett kavanaugh, and then be murder ofjamal khashoggi. and there in pennsylvania, we have the shooting at the pittsburgh synagogue. how much is that had an effect, do you think, on the vote there in pennsylvania? remember, with the election was then to be about eric kavanagh. election was then to be about eric kava nagh. but cavenagh election was then to be about eric kavanagh. but cavenagh says that last year. not last month. and similarly, will want to you left out there was the pipe—bomb is. they that such an eventful mid—term election. i was in pittsburgh for those shootings. but this has been a disturbing election for many people. it has been an ugly election for many people. i feel like a visit to a butternut because i been typecast. the more noble son a character

thinks i'm a student of history were in the cradle of democracy at the moment. one wonders what the founding fathers would have made of the past few weeks. this was not the american democracy they envisage va nessa american democracy they envisage vanessa the system. they didn't envisage is hyper partisanship. we send partisanship that we have not seenin send partisanship that we have not seen in the desert floor. we'll come back to you during the course evening, nick bryant. keep the crowd jill so that we can keep hearing you. that is your brett kavanaugh, which we focused on so much three or four weeks ago, it dominated political coverage in the united states, and around the world, as well. those hearings were covered in the united kingdom excessively. a deployed from cbs from indiana is showing that people who voted their, half of them said thatjoe donnelly, the democrat senator restraint to hang on to his seat, but half of

them said thatjoe donnelly public vote against brett kavanaugh was important to them. those that bode ill for the democratic candidate, if they voted against brett kavanaugh? to the real issue here is around the country. indiana is a state that donald trump carried by 20 points. the fact that democrats are competing and joe donnelly is competing and joe donnelly is competing much better than 20 points is an important factor. the most important thing to look at is how the entire electorate is looking these issues. there is a false ceiling that show a majority of people, majority of americans, had voted, were inspired against the welcome party and brett kavanaugh by a 4—6 point level. it is an important issue in the senate races and one that donald trump has rarely talked about. but the truth is that theissue talked about. but the truth is that the issue that is the most important donald trump of last week has been immigration. the health department has helped them in some places but that in other places, like nevada and arizona. what has been

particularly difficult for the more moderate centrist democrats is to play in the red states were donald trump has been visiting the likes of north dakota, perhaps even up in montana, as well. what does it say for democrats if they can't be centrist in these newly divided red states ? centrist in these newly divided red states? i would say these are states that were not competitive at all in 2016. these are states donald trump won by 20 points. i bigger question is, donald trump won majorities in michigan, in ohio, these are states he may well lose his candidates may well lose. the midwest as had a resurgent move to the democrats. well lose. the midwest as had a resurgent move to the democratsm is 730, -10 resurgent move to the democratsm is 730, —10 seconds here in the us. we do have polls that are closing at 730. we have ohio, that is one of

those that is close and west virginia and north carolina. there are house races in ohio and although states that uighur do watching, and governor's races and some of the states as well. jon sopel, this issue of a divided country, as we go into this results from tonight, how much more are we going to see that america is divided, and what are the chances that we can at least mid—term elections with even more divisions in america? politics were so simple when it was a marxist class definition and there was the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. in america today we have divisions between men and women, young and old, black and white, and the list goes on and on. and we have seen it brought up starkly by what happened in pittsburgh, by what happened, a shooting that got barely any coverage in kentucky which was a hate crime as well. and the pipe

bombers and the people... i thought the pipe—bomb in thing was really extraordinaire, where people were immediately thinking, well known people who should know better, for suggesting that is all very convenient for the democrats that this should happen now, and in brackets it is a conspiracy. people are always thinking the worst of the other side. american politics, as someone who has spent most of his career covering politics in europe, american politics is particularly brutal. i think the lack of a cce pta nce brutal. i think the lack of acceptance of another viewpoint at the moment is something that is very, very striking, and potentially very, very striking, and potentially very alarming in america at the moment. it seems to me, ron, people don'tjust disagree on what the solutions are, they disagree on what deep problems. for me they are donald trump has to lose. i think he wa nts to donald trump has to lose. i think he wants to be the winners —— winner. it doesn't want to back down copper isil stop one other point as it relates to the brett kavanaugh factor, it is important when you look at west virginia, does joe

manchin hold on, joe manchin who voted with the president on the brett kava naugh factor voted with the president on the brett kavanaugh factor hold we see, because a loss of his voter said i am pleased you voted for him. that a lot of toppie lot of people looked at how brett kavanaugh was treated and said if this happens and democrats are rewarded with a majority are they going to do this with every republican nominee. those who have to decide which way to go, the centre—back, is that shrinking? i think it is. if you look at someone like me and, like neera, which you might call the establishment or more traditionalist wing, it is now a loss of identity politics, it is by eight gender, race, by so many other factors than iama race, by so many other factors than i am a republican or democrat. race, by so many other factors than i am a republican or democratlj think i am a republican or democrat.” think this will be determined a lot tonight. i think the big question in american politics is not how democrats and republicans are betting that how independent voting. ina betting that how independent voting. in a loss of the analysis we have seen leading up to the election, independence were breaking towards the democrats —— lot of. that is

fuelled by an interest and having a sta ble fuelled by an interest and having a stable politics. people say they don't like the hateful, what i would consider basically hateful chaos that happens every day in american politics, and a rejection of that. we go to texas. there is an important senate race going on. senator ted cruz, you will remember, ran as a republican candidate in 2016. he lost to donald trump. he is trying to hold onto his republican seat down in texas, but he is challenged by that o'rourke who is a democrat. some intimate darling of the democratic party. it looks like ted cruz is going to hold on, but this is one that democrats have long to ta ke this is one that democrats have long to take texas for a long time. gary o'donoghue is down there in texas for ours. gary, going into the polling day, what's did it look like for the democrats' chances of unseating a republican senator in texas? well, the average of the

polls going into today was about giving ted cruz a lead of six or seven percentage points. all things being equal, that was being a reasonably comfortable margin. the fa ct reasonably comfortable margin. the fact that no one has really taken account of quite properly or can't ta ke account of quite properly or can't take into account because you don't know how it will break down, is these huge numbers of early vote that were cast in texas. vast numbers of young people voting early. something like five times as many as voted last time. that on the face of it would play well for democrats. that would give them some hope. there was also early voting amongst older people. they typically vote republican. there are a number of extra parameters that have been fed into this race that lead to that level of uncertainty. i spoke to ted cruz yesterday at an event in a church, one of his last events before today. he said we are happy with the place we are in. there was

a quiet confidence that, i think the x factor in this election is the money. usually the democrats raise far more than the republicans. that was particularly the case in texas, where battle o'rourke almost outraced ted cruz 2—2 one. where battle o'rourke almost outraced ted cruz 2-2 one. $70 million. when you think about it, thatis million. when you think about it, that is a huge amount of money for one rates. that was a sign of the kind of candidates that the democratic establishment thinks he is. here's a bit of a rock star. it is. here's a bit of a rock star. it is the closest thing they have got to celebrity at the moment. there was a current and serving politician. if you go to his rallies and we went to one yesterday. he really is very engaging on stage. very relaxed. walks about, sexy crowd with him in a very compelling way. so they believe that even if he doesn't do it this time around, that he will have some sort of national future. i will tell you one thing,

which is an interesting thing for tonight's count. we are being told that harris county, which is where we are, around houston, a big urban co, they have extended voting until eight p.m.. it was due to finish in about 20 minutes, but it has been extended by an hour because of the length of the lines. another indication that turnout will be up and that will interest and infuse the whole race for the loss more certainty, which means when i walked into this room a moment ago and it said ted cruz victory party on a sign at the door, you had a moment where you thought, maybe a little premature, but who knows? ok. gary o'donoghue in texas. i was reading the other day, the early turnout, the other day, the early turnout, the postal ballot and the early turnout, was big at this time than the vote was in the last mid—term election. it tells you the energy he has generated. it is not even larger, it is larger byi million votes. four other states. where the

numbers that have gone to vote in early voting, you know, it eclipses the total number of votes cast four yea rs the total number of votes cast four years ago. that is extraordinary. let us talk about the money. $70 million on once in a race. i have tried to make the comparison between american and uk elections before. it is like apples and pears. by my estimate, something like 75 million 100 million spent on a general election. semi 5 million is about the cost of a british election. the important thing, the way he is raising money, different from other candidates, and a new wave in democratic politics at least, it is all small at no corporate tax, no large donations. —— semi 5 million. it is all individual donations, mostly from texas. you are saying earlierfrom a mostly from texas. you are saying earlier from a democrat's strategic

perspective, you have all that money in texas and you have north dakota, they pulled funding from. there are democrats at beto o'rourke tonight. he spent $60 million. is sitting by nearly $10 million that could have gone to other democrats running for office. a lot of these donations for beto o'rourke are coming from out of state. ted cruz has raised a significant portion of his money from in the state of texas, saying this is a texas election not a national democratic... what does the amount of money raised for a mid—term election when the president is not even on the ballot say to you about the kind of money that is going to be sloshing around the electoral process for the 2020 presidential election? well, it will be astronomical. there is this thing called citizens united, a case heard in the supreme court. it is an arms race. there are no limits on what you can spend on any time. in britain it is almost quaint by comparison in terms of the rules

concerning spending, to buy television advertising, there are set slots. and so the money that is spent isjust on set slots. and so the money that is spent is just on a different scale. it means that you have to race fortunes. but i will say this about donald trump. in 2016 he did not need to raise anything like the sums of money. you look at whatjeb bush spent in iowa to try to make progress in the iowa caucus. his money bought him nothing. it is about the candidates still. it is about the candidates still. it is about the candidates still. it is about the messaging still. it is not just that money automatically buys you success. there is no automatic causal relationship. american electoral history in the past 12 yea rs electoral history in the past 12 years is electoral history in the past 12 yea rs is replete electoral history in the past 12 years is replete with examples people who have spent a huge amount of their own fortunes a race and not one. yeah. i would love to meet these clearly wealthy people who clearly do not know what to do with it. i would graciously and write a lovely thank you letter.” it. i would graciously and write a lovely thank you letter. i think it will be in in trend. an important trend is being able to raise money

from small donors. beto o'rourke has raised money from small donors. ted cruz has had large superpacs come in and write only negative ads. so what. this is american democracy. if you are allowed to raise money that way, then the democrats are able to say that is bad. unions are now allowed to spend unknown amounts of money. i do think an issue with democrats and independents is where the money comes from. one thing i was struck by, this person, like la quinta, is perpetually in, continually in campaign mode. —— bill clinton. he is a always in campaign mode. you can buy baseball caps and t—shirts. campaign mode. you can buy baseball caps and t-shirts. isn't that a feature of american politics that you spend far more of your time if you spend far more of your time if you are a congressman and you are facing election every cue years, what you're doing is raising money the whole to fight the campaign. one thing we can be absolutely sure of

is that whatever happens, whoever holds on to the house of representatives, however well the democrats do or they do in the senate, the presidential election campaignfor senate, the presidential election campaign for 2020, which are still two years away, will start on wednesday morning here in the united states. we will be in presidential election mode already. these mid—term elections will have a huge impact on donald trump's chances of being re—elected to the white house for a second term, which is what the democrats are watching very closely tonight. you are watching a bbc news election special, america 2018. it just joining itjustjoining us. welcome to the bbc‘s itjustjoining us. welcome to the bbc‘s results coverage of the mid—term elections. this is our panel, along with me and christian fraser we have political analyst and former advisor to george w bush, ron christie, he will be with us throughout the night, we also have

democratic supporter neera tanden. and we have north america editorjon sopel and we have north america editorjon sopel. at the moment we do not have enough results to tell you which way these mid—term elections are going to go. we have started to have some trickle in and some states have closed and we will be getting more of those results, hopefully, in next few hours. we will bring them to you as soon as we get them. some important ones in the east coast, virginia coming up, kentucky and india as well. as we get the results we will ring them to —— indiana. there were 70 toss up states. 25 of the house districts that the democrats need to win are in areas where hillary clinton won in 2016. they need to cleavers up to take the house. yes. they need to mop those at —— house. yes. they need to mop those at — — clea house. yes. they need to mop those at —— clea boezaart. one of the ones that i went to recently was a few miles from here. it is the. on the washington suburbs. i'm sure the

democrats are looking very closely at that —— virgina. i looking at loudoun county where they have performed exceptionally well. it is also cumulative. it is not like we get one result and that tells you everything that will happen. yes, you are right, there are two vacant democrat seats. that they would expect to hold. they need to gain 23. there are a number of those that hillary clinton did very well in into the 16. there are others where they believe that the demographic changes, the increased turnout, could augur well for the democrats. i saw one of the people, one of the net —— i saw one of the people, one of the net — — may i saw one of the people, one of the net —— may number crunchers saying 85% probability that the democrats will retake the house. i remember being in new york on the day brexit and it was an 85% probability that britain would remain in the european union. laughter. we will pause and take a breath and see what happens. we will not call this for you by the way into we have

result that come in. i promise you, you can trust us on that. we know the polls can be wrong. we have never taught peak in newjersey. there are several close house races. newjersey, traditionally a democratic state. for our viewers around the world they will be scratching their heads and wonder why at a state like newjersey is in play. yeah. absolutely. ithink why at a state like newjersey is in play. yeah. absolutely. i think it was interesting when christian mentioned the 25 house districts that went for hillary clinton that democrats are hoping to get. we have one of those in newjersey. the seventh district. you have leonard lance, who has served several terms asa lance, who has served several terms as a republican in newjersey. a heavily democratic state. it was seen as a moderate. so many people split their ticket to vote for him. this time around he is really facing that anti—trump a backlash will stop even though he did not vote with

republicans on the health—care bill, even though he opposed the tax bill, which is very unpopular here in new jersey, because it hit voters here negatively. he is still really fighting for his seat. it is a close race. that really underscores, i think, president trump us might affect newjersey. think, president trump us might affect new jersey. at think, president trump us might affect newjersey. at the same time, you have women in this suburban areas who are more energised than ever. newjersey areas who are more energised than ever. new jersey has areas who are more energised than ever. newjersey has made national headlines in terms of how energised women are here and how they are confronting their representatives. at one town hall in newjersey‘s the district, the southern coastal parts of newjersey, there was a town hall where they shouted "down, tom macarthur! " where they shouted "down, tom macarthur!" and other republican for his support of the health—care bill in the house. he was pivotal in getting that pass in the house. the pass was just one vote. it found

that in the senate. voters here were absolutely outraged, because the affordable care act has really helped people here get insured and lower their premiums. that is another race that we are looking at. that is an area that actually supported president trump. he is a republican. he is seeking his third term. the key issues, healthcare, the tax bill, that is what is making people rethink support for republicans in the state. to think there. the early exit polls. this is looking very good for the democratic candidate, jennifer weston. it was bumper costa's seat. she was labelled as the person who donald trump called bharat trumpstock. what are these

particular district is it has to breaches of hold foods. this is a supermarket chain that well—to—do middle classes use. —— whole. that is something about the affluence of the summer that may be affluent people with their breaches of whole foods may be to, and this is not flippant. this is serious point. so burn america, well—to—do, this is properly feeling a little cuddle with the current president. some of these areas in corporate areas at a suburban that could be leading towards the whole foods vote, and other places stretch out into virginia colebee on the shenandoah river, that is more conservative. we need to look at the results from the whole estate coke as you could get a mystery difficult to one air of the state. we go to gaskill, flying right over to the west to the united states, to the bbc‘s can score, who is in colorado for us. sorry, he is in arizona. also visible part of the

country. he's in arizona for us where there is a very interesting senate race taking place. yes. that is right. martin mcallister i think cu rzon is right. martin mcallister i think curzon cinema here, and this is essentially a dead heat. martin italia, former fighter pilot, taken a democrat in curzon cinema, who was way out of the latter one stage, but asa memberof way out of the latter one stage, but as a member of the house of representatives, both of these two women representatives, both of these two women of members of the house of representatives, and she has tapped into the centre ground. she is trained to avoid talking about the president. she is tried to focus on issues, particularly healthcare, an issues, particularly healthcare, an issue of great concern for people here in arizona. of course, the policy known as obamacare, is centred healthcare policy known as obamacare, is centred healthca re coverage policy known as obamacare, is centred healthcare coverage of america's cup has 20 million, but in many areas like arizona, it led to a

dramatic rise in the price that people pay for their health insurance. that has certainly being a campaigning issue for the democrats. but i was the martha mcsally rally just democrats. but i was the martha mcsally rallyjust the other day with donald trump jr there mcsally rallyjust the other day with donald trumer there is, the president's son. and at that rally, there was no mention at all of healthcare. the focus was remote and immigration and understated of the economy. ok, james cook in arizona. we'll be back with you. they give a much indeed. but we tell you a little about indiana, with the democrat senatorjoe donnelly is under some real pressure tonight. he's up against mike braun, the republican. these early results. we should stress the votes the votes are in. as can be securely, defence with the boats are being counted. in rural areas indiana, or you would expect them to be that way, but it is places like indianapolis in indiana, thatjoe donnelly needs to win and win big. and you can set the moment that he is trailing. donald trump campaign barramundi. three

states. the presidents have both been there. talk about arizona, which is one that many the democrats would hope to recover. we talked about how big the middle is there. they think that a third of the elections in allah ‘s owner is independent. at invesco is from earlier of republicans and democrats getting their cancer getting their bases. what is going to dry the electric as the independent vote. this is a state where is the independence go out and vote either one of these two candidates, they are likely to prevail. might miceli, you would think being a former military pilot, being in arizona, would a little of republicans, but is the independence, and how they will come down this. we'll talk about this a lot to me whether democrats have to get out the hispanic vote. and there has been evidence, actually, today, throughout the day, the turnout in arizona and texas of latinos has actually surged, particularly last few days, where they have had early

voting. you are utterly right. the big question to me in the evening is does the focus on immigration, which was so much tied to be president's base, actually buring with latina vote rs base, actually buring with latina voters in importance states like florida, nevada, arizona, and texas. there are a number of congressional races in texas that if they also could really get to 35 seats, 36 seats, instead of just could really get to 35 seats, 36 seats, instead ofjust 23. to some extend that is the big picture but denied. does donald trump in his message on the way that he delivers a message excite the base and get them to turn out more than it depresses opponents and goes on to turnout? against him. i think will we watching that throughout the night, because this is a referendum on donald trump. will talk about this during the course of the night. this is not just this during the course of the night. this is notjust a referendum on donald trump robert will have a huge impact on donald trump and how he ru ns impact on donald trump and how he runs in 2020 and if you get the chances of being president again. we go to anthony zurcher, who has his updates on what you have the watching for the last 51 minutes and

what you'll be watching to the next hour as well. i think what is remarkable is that when the polls closed here at the junior at seven o'clock, how quickly tim kaine won his election to the senate. he was the vice presidential and 92 years ago. but virginia did not used to be always such an easily held state by the democrats. back in 2006, was an upset when a democrat one of the senate. this is to be a fairly reliably republican state. it has shifted remarkably. it looks a lot more like a mid—atlantic urban state thanit more like a mid—atlantic urban state than it does the old south, which is kind of order was lifted before. as question pointed out, there are some key seats that in the house of representatives, they will be a play here. barbora comstock's sea, the ones around richmond and elsewhere. junior's in dressing, looking to have eye is on indiana. if he loses

this race, it really makes it a much more uphill climb for democrats to ta ke more uphill climb for democrats to take the senate. you need to remember donald trump one indiana by 60%. there are four other states where democrats are trying to win re—election in the senate that donald trump won by double digits. this could be a real tale going forward. i will say that indianapolis, which is a heavy democratic district in indiana, although the results still having come in from there. so donnelly could beat this amount up. he could for his way back. but he will have to rely on really high, really super levels of urban turnout. just to tantalise our viewers levels of urban turnout. just to ta ntalise our viewers around levels of urban turnout. just to tantalise our viewers around the world, maybe wobbling it is the early hours in the morning, tell us what they need to stay for next hour? we need to give our eyes on florida. i think they'll be fascinating. also disclose there, but they traditionally they go off their votes to come through, typically to disclose. what i am looking it together is this governor 's race, because that you have a

case where it is to polar opposites. you have a trump conservative, against geylang, eight prominent letters. you get much more different than that. anthony zurcher, thank you forjoining us. john kyle briefly, you wanted to pick up on something? the virginia point that anthony wasjust something? the virginia point that anthony was just making there about how easy it looks like tim kaine one, potentially the democrat and made an important gain in virginia. what was barack obama doing yesterday? i mean come barack obama made the final campaign stop in virginia. which suggest to me, unless they have had to declare good threats we say, because at a very sore throat, and that is the reason he went, he would normally go somewhere where he felt support needed shoring up the virus because of the last moment. and it was an anti—drug rally as well. we will lose you at the top of the cell. thank you for journeys lose you at the top of the cell. thank you forjourneys here on our bbc election special unit to 2018.

you will be watching which race coming up? the senate race matters a lot. i really going to be looking at peter woods race. i do get a fighting chance. what are you thinking about the indiana senate race at the moment? i think it went indianapolis, the close suburbs, and gary davies. he is buying. it is deftly behind. suburbs have been surging across the country. if you make indiana, he can make that. since he announced yesterday that he will not be a candidate... i think the answer is no. laughter. there will be a lot of democrats tomorrow if that what wins in texas. people will be talking about him as a twe nty20 will be talking about him as a twenty20 is urgent candidate. you're watching a bbc news election special. —— 2020. we'll bring you all the results during this exciting night. hello there. although staying

relatively mild to the rest of this week and indeed into the weekend, there will be turning a lot more u nsettled. there will be turning a lot more unsettled. that is because of this area of low pressure which will be very slowly moving its way eastwards across our shores, bringing in a series of weather fronts. very slowly. there will be bumping into that area of high pressure over the near continent. either way, it that area of high pressure over the near continent. eitherway, it will bring some of them again from the south the south—west for the next few days. this morning is starting off on few days. this morning is starting offona few days. this morning is starting off on a pretty grotty note. a lot off on a pretty grotty note. a lot of heavy rain around, particularly, western areas. northern ireland concede mist bob and light winds for equal start. elsewhere breezy, a mild start. through the morning, it looks at the heavies of the rain will remain in western areas, but perhaps pushing into eastern northern ireland. elsewhere some sunshine. but a whole fresh of pretty heavy or thundery showers pushing into southern and western

areas. there will be a blustery day away from northern ireland. despite that, it is still fairly mild. temperatures were used to it in such an addition sheltered east ridge in the mid— decency is. the rain continues through the evening and then pushes away northwards. a little bit dry with lighter winds moving up from the south—west. a very brief ridge of high pressure. heading into thursday, will looking at this weather front that will bring in further wet weather, initially to that south—west corner, then push them into wales, sliding into the irish sea to north—west england, and then into southern scotla nd england, and then into southern scotland later on in the day. after that. though many areas should actually have a bright day to the north—west into the south—east of this weather front, with temperatures reaching 14 or 15 degrees in the south—east. looking to the west in the next area of low pressure, which will bring us when and witty when the fraught friday. this could potentially be disruptive. there will be very slowly moving in. it look a much a central and eastern areas, but on

showers, should start dry, then the rain will pop up across south—western areas in towards wales and across many western area is pretty heavily and persistent in the south, with strong winds that could cause some disruptions. stay tuned to the forecast for friday. again it could be pretty mild, especially in the east, where we have some sunshine with 13 or 14 celsius. the left of alinta the weekend as well with blustery showers, some sunshine, and remaining mild with south—westerly winds. welcome back to the bbc‘s coverage of these midterm elections — we'll be with you throughout the night waiting for the results to come in. polls have just closed in a number of key states, including tennessee, pennsylvania, florida, missouri, newjersey, and that high profile senate race in texas between republican senator ted cruz and the democratic candidate beto o'rourke. let me introduce you to the panel

where does. ron christie, former advisor to george w bush is worse for the whole of eating. jon sopel is with us for the next hour. joining us,j newton small. the author of a very good book on politics and women in politics. women, the story perhaps to night of the mid—term elections. women, the story perhaps to night of the mid-term elections. very excited. we will see what happens when women reach critical in congress. wyatt there are more women running tonight, 260 women running in the senate. we have republican women as well. there could be more women as well. there could be more women than they have ever been. we may have over 100 women by the end of the night in the house of representatives stipulate that would bea representatives stipulate that would be a stunning game for the house representatives. particularly because this has happened in the senate before wei yu have had critical mass and women have control things, but we have never seen it in the house before. when the women

control the house and the committees and everything else, it will be interesting to see what happens. the president said that he had regrets, a few, and when he appeared on the stage in a missouri, i think was last night, he brought kellyanne conway and is sarah sands onto the stage, perhaps an acknowledgement that they have a problem. -- sarah sands is. they had more than 40% of women in barack obama's senate. to see the backtrack in this administration of high—level women has been really striking. in kellyanne conway, this is a big i have discussed with her. she was one of the main characters in my book. she is one of the people who really felt, she always said to republicans, for decades she has said that their main achilles heel that they are appealing to women as at special interest politics. when you make up the majority of the

electorate you are not special interest. you are the majority and you should appeal to women straight up. we will see what happens. as we wait for the results to come in there are some key firsts. some breaking ground happening in these mid—term elections. we mentioned women. 260 women are running for the house and the senate. there are currently 84 women in the us house of representatives. 23 in the senate. there are women running in governors races as well. here is another big group of people and those up military veterans. there are 200 military veterans running in the house in the senate. ron christie, why we suddenly seeing this surge of military. we used to have a lot of people who have served in the house in the senate. that has died down and now we have a new generation of military veterans, on both sides of the aisle. jimmy carter was elected president in 1976. and ronald reagan succeeded

him. we have not seen a military person until george w bush. america has been at war for nearly two decades now. there are a lot of military veterans who were saying i am not being well represented in the congress, i am am not being well represented in the congress, lam not am not being well represented in the congress, i am not well represented in the senate, you know what, i will run myself. because these people in washington have no idea what it means to commit troops to battle and go to war. think we have had 42 retirements of republican house members, incumbents tend to do better in elections, does that set the republican party back. of course it makes it more difficult. if you have new people who have no track record or relationship, particularly, with the local community they are serving. that is pa rt community they are serving. that is part of it. maybe people are making decisions about their retirement, because they think they are going to lose the election, but also maybe because they think they might face a primary race. because you don'tjust get to be the candidate, you have to fight the primary, which is often the key battle. if you think you are

going to face an opponent in a primary who is going to be able to outspend you, has muscle from all sorts of different groups and different support groups, then maybe you just think, you know what, i am calling it quits. i might lose the seat anyway in the mid—term election. therefore i will go quietly now. i think that that makes itan quietly now. i think that that makes it an even steeper uphill climb for the republicans in these elections. we can bring is the result that have come in. none of them big surprises. for the senate, in the ginia, tim kaine has held his seat. it will be the next senator. he was hillary clinton ‘s running mate in 2016. in merrylands, the democrat senator has held onto his seat no surprise. and an massachusetts, elizabeth warren, she has held on to her seat. the

darling of the progressive win of the party. a woman who took a dna test the other wycheproof she was native american —— progressive win. we go back to pennsylvania. nick brya nt we go back to pennsylvania. nick bryant is in the barfor us. we go back to pennsylvania. nick bryant is in the bar for us. still in the noisy bar. i know you le berre in pennsylvania focusing on pennsylvania. no one has spent as much time in steel mill and factories in the rust belt as you have. these are all states in the midwest that donald trump did well in. surprisingly well in into the 16. will be governor races, which a state wide in those rust belt states, will they tell us a little about the pattern of the evening? yeah, they may well. pennsylvania has already been called for the incumbent governor, the democrat tom wolfe. which was to be expected. you

are right. i spent an awful lot of time in the rust belt states during 2016. cheering. i almost felt like the rust belt corresponded at times. donald trump was incredibly strong there. it is one of the reasons he won pennsylvania — — one of the reasons he won pennsylvania —— corresponded. the democrats thought pennsylvania was safe. it was part of the famed blue or they disintegrated on the night of 2016. he did well in the rust belt towns. one of the key races we are looking at night in christian, is in allentown and bethlehem. the seventh congressional district. there is a democrat, susan walsh, she is up against a former olympic gold—medallist with the republican candidate. the democrats think they candidate. the democrats think they can pick up there. that would be really significant if they could win that kind of seat in allentown in bethlehem. one of those old steel towns were donald trump did so well

in the 2016 election. that is one of the key races we will be looking at. also just shut the key races we will be looking at. alsojust shut in pennsylvania and the votes are starting to be counted. as you say, the polls have just shut in pennsylvania. it is one of those swing states. it can go either way. it went for donald trump last time around. what impact will it have if, in the seven house district that are toss up is in pennsylvania that we are watching tonight to see whether democrats have a good night were the republicans are they good night, what impact does it have on donald trump which way pennsylvania goes tonight? you remember, katty, the 2016 election night, it was pennsylvania. when it went republican we just knew that hillary clinton could not win. it was impossible for her to win if she did not win pennsylvania. it was the key brick in the famed blue walled the democrat spoke of, which they

believed would see hillary clinton home. if you suffered badly in pennsylvania it would be a big setback to donald trump —— if he. we we re setback to donald trump —— if he. we were to give up box katty. if there is going to be a pink way to help generate a democratic blue wave, it will be amongst some of the women. i mentioned that seat in allentown. i have been there many times. so many people they are supportive of donald trump. a key seat in the suburbs of pittsburgh. it is a place where donald trump won by 20 points. at a special election early in the year it was won by the democrat konnor lamb. it would be a major setback for donald trump if he did badly in pennsylvania. bill clinton did very badly in 1994. ronald reagan did not do well in the congressional midterms in 1982. barack obama —— barack obama did did badly in 2010.

they all rebounder. the role 2—term presidents. even if a president doesn't suffer in the midterms, as most do, they can come back and win two years later. ok. nick bright, for the moment, thank you very much. if you want to know the details and the memory of presidential history, there are few better people to ask than nick bright to have a ph.d. in american presidential political history and seems to know more about mid—term races than anybody probably should. he will know that 35 out of 38 midterms have gone against the sitting president. we would not be surprised if the democrats.” sitting president. we would not be surprised if the democrats. i will throw those facts out. we had better ration. we have a long night ahead of us. we have some result in the senate races and how they are going. this is an interesting one. chris murphy. should be a halt. chris murphy, first elected in 1992 to the

senate. an outspoken senator on gun control. the school, sandy hook, is in his state. he has been re—elected. also delaware they are calling it for the democrat. he was elected in 2000. alongside chris coombs who we have on the programme quite a lot. a big spokesman on cyber security. and the senator for rhode island, sheldon whitehouse, also a hold for the democrats. we should remind our audience, don't get overwhelmed by a slew of holes coming in. those are not the toss up once we are watching. the key is the tight races route could go either way. those three we have given you we fully expected to go democratic. they unlikely to change. they have to keep those as well if they are to ta ke to keep those as well if they are to take the majority in the senate. so about florida 27? just to pick up on bits and pieces. this was one of

this is that the democrats were hoping to pick up. it looks that they are doing very well there. it is an interesting big one, because the democratic candidate was thought to have run a lacklustre campaign. it isa to have run a lacklustre campaign. it is a hugely hispanic electoral campaign. and she doesn't. that was one of the ones you thought that is going to be very difficult. that is one again with the democrats look like they are going to take that particular seat. that will be another one notched up as they hope to was that target of 23 net gains. cbs, our partner network in the united states, has estimated that donna shalala has taken it. i know thatis donna shalala has taken it. i know that is a surprise. speaking to democrats over the past few weeks, this was a race they were concerned about. they did not think of the tight races, e7 tight races we are watching down in florida that perhaps this was one that was going to go their way. so they will be

pleased if that result holds. we go to florida. that is one of the races you are watching. democrats will be happy with that news. happy and also, as you touched on, katty, perhaps a touch surprised as well. i was speaking to democratic strategists earlier in the day who have been working on the campaign down here in florida who were not really netting on doing brilliantly here, although they pinned a lot of their hopes on the andrew gillum governor race. but certainly this will be a pleasant surprise, the news of the 27th district, the district i am standing in right now. i was at district i am standing in right now. iwas ata district i am standing in right now. i was at a polling station earlier today in that district and i think turn—out has definitely been on the democratic party's side. and demographics, although the republicans fielded a young candidate, real vira salazar, who

was a former tv reporter, a well— known presence in was a former tv reporter, a well—known presence in this area —— maria elvira salazar. it was all about the hispanic vote. the republicans felt she might have the advantage in them hanging on to this seat. also, next door, florida's 26th, the southernmost seat in these congressional races that we are looking at, which includes the everglades, that is another race but certainly when we are looking at it at the moment is looking increased —— incredibly close. carlos carvalhal the —— incredibly close. carlos ca rvalhal the republican —— incredibly close. carlos carvalhal the republican in there. he has pumped in record amounts of cash into the race. is about 2000 votes behind the democratic candidate. another key demographic. another close race. this is good news for the democratic party. and as they say. i think it is a bit of as they say. i think it is a bit of a surprise for them. that one is an

interesting. he is a republican candidate who has had to pull away from donald trump quite markedly about things like climate change and immigration. yes. exactly. in some of the house raises what we have seenis of the house raises what we have seen is quite different to what we have seen when it comes to be governors' have seen when it comes to be governorsi race have seen when it comes to be governors' race and the senate race. i will come to those. the polls have closed in now. we are getting the first reports of results on those two big races. the races being talked about nationally. at the moment, in terms of the governors' race, the districts that have so far are putting the republican candidate slightly ahead. bear in mind very is the transfers are mostly republican districts. i decided to look at the return so far in hillsborough county, which is a reliably swing

district which includes on the other side of the state from where i am. the returns from hillsborough when it comes to the governors' race are 49%, 49%. excruciatingly close. when we 49%, 49%. excruciatingly close. when we look at richards in the senate race so far the democratic candidate, bill nelson, is edging ahead. and when i spoke to some democrats earlier today they did not rate bill nelson's chances of hanging onto this seat for a fourth term. however, they may believe that the momentum around and regular's candidacy for governor could have helped them vote down ticket for other democrats which could help bill nelson. 0k. other democrats which could help bill nelson. ok. i am clear. thank you very much forjoining us. can i give you a contract about florida? how many house districts are there in florida? 27. and why is florida so important a part from the fact that it so important a part from the fact thatitis so important a part from the fact that it is the third most populous state in the country? because if the democrats get the governors major

denied they will be able to engineer those house districts and they will help lene the state over towards the democrats or the republicans —— governor's mansion. we haven't talked about the governor's race in georgia. i think people around the world will look at this and think it cannot be. the secretary of state, the person who runs the election, in british terms, the returning officer, is also the candidate you think to recuse himself. you think to recuse himselfm you think to recuse himself. it is not the only one, kansas also has a race. . . not the only one, kansas also has a race... how is it possible that you can take it is ethically right that you don't recuse yourself? it makes you don't recuse yourself? it makes you wonder. in this instance, georgia, traditionally a red state, he should figure i should win this and this could be a surprise race. the governor 's mansion in georgia and florida. another state that perhaps the democrats are looking at

and thinking as the demographics of the united states change, and in 2044, didn't united states becomes a minority white country. there are states in the south like georgia, like texas, that democrats are looking at and thinking if we can keep those minority voters in the democratic camp, things are looking better for the party going forward. we can bring you more results now. virginia seventh, the seventh district of virginia is still close to call. 79% of the preset in, 49 .9%, 49.9%. this is an interesting race because dave brat, who is the republican trying to hang on to his seat there, and seated eric kantor, who was the republican house leader, backin who was the republican house leader, back in 2014. he is now being challenged by abigail spanberger, she is a former cia officer.

interestingly, dave brat during the course of this campaign, mentioned nancy polusik‘s name a one—time. that tells you, as the woman has written a lot about her, how toxic she is seemed to be by republican candidates and how they feel they candidates and how they feel they can use it to dry up turnout. she absolutely is the strawman, the bogeyman, the person who represents every liberal nightmare for republican voters. definitely in dave brat's district. the fact of the matter is, she is actually, if you look at her voting record, her re cord you look at her voting record, her record as leader when she was not just minority leader, but also speaker, she is a huge compromise. she has had protesters in front of her house in san francisco for years because they view her as not practical enough. she gets it from both sides and that is interesting. by both sides and that is interesting. by the way, it was nancy pelosi who got obamacare, by the way, it was nancy pelosi who got obamaca re, healthca re by the way, it was nancy pelosi who got obamacare, healthcare reform through the house. i think barack

obama owes nancy pelosi flowers probably for the rest of her life. she is a formidable democratic operator. why do you think she has been so confident? they must have terror filled been so confident? they must have terrorfilled nightmares, been so confident? they must have terror filled nightmares, the democrats, after 2016 and yet she is the one out front saying we will win this. i have got to say, it is projected optimism, that is herjob, supposed to do as a leader. let's give one more race that she can feel optimistic about, this is the junior ten, between barbara comstock, the sitting republican congresswoman, being challenged byjennifer wexton from the democrats, with 60% of it precincts, 60% —— 58% democrats, 42% republicans. again, all of the ones in virginia that the democrats had to pick up, this is probably the one they were most optimistic about. is

to be the kind of result that barbara comstock would be in. would it the one of those where you are looking at whether suburban white women come out to vote for a democratic woman? absolutely. this is one of the races where it really matters. the college—educated vote versus the non— college—educated vote for white women is absolutely key. in this district have been trending a long time away from barbara comstock towards jennifer wexton. the interesting thing for me is non— college—educated white women we re is non— college—educated white women were the only democratic 16 that swung. they swung away from donald trump after the goldstar scandal, this one away from him after the whole, sort of, entertainment tonight grabbing audio. they swung really ha rd tonight grabbing audio. they swung really hard towards him in the end, with the whole james comey investigation and he ended up winning them by a historic 28 percentage point. this is a group that his tour % more energised than

they were in 2014 and the big question for me is will they vote republican or democratic? they are a really big swing in the donald trump world. ron christie, we are talking about white women because there is a different —— difference between the 2016 election between the pattern of voting between white women and non——— african—american women. only 23% of which voted for donald trump. i have had democrats say me if things go well tonight, it will be about the high turnout of african—american women.” about the high turnout of african-american women. i think that is right and another thing i am looking at is that donald trump was a approval rating among african—americans is nearly 40%. they must be men... looking at it by race. if we look at racial demographic, everybody thinks that black voters will vote for the democrats and republicans, this could be an area where every demographic goes out to support republicans. laughter. iwonder

whether the story will will be telling this evening is not one story, but two stories. there will be the story of the senate, which will be a distinguished different story to the story of the house of. we have seen it is going well for that contract in—house races. i looking at figures for florida, the senate race, bill nelson is the incumbent and indiana. is looking very, very tight indeed. —— it is. if you get a situation where the republicans are able to pick up senate seats, it is virtually possible to see a path by which the democrats retake the test to be fair, florida vote always come in earlier for rural than they do urban. on the 2016 election, florida came in an ever thought trump was going to win it and it came in at the end the other way. bits go to new york and speak to ciobo rally. —— let's go to new york. —— joe

borelli. we understand the main man is sitting at the white house watching the results. what will it be like tonight? what are you hearing from people you talk to in the administration? look, ithink it will be tense. the present and welcome party set out to defy history. we have barack obama losing 63 seats in the house in his first mid—term, we had bill clinton lose 30 something. if we go with the average number of seats lost in the house, we would lose the majority. it will be a tight race. i think we are seeing optimistic things coming out of indiana, i thinkjoe donnelly is for all intents and purposes, done the. rick scott race is razorthin right now. i am sure there is some nailbiting but this is not the blue wave that we were promised, this is not the blue wave we were expecting and this is not the blue wave that pollsters told us would be a surefire thing to happen.”

wave that pollsters told us would be a surefire thing to happen. i don't wa nt to a surefire thing to happen. i don't want tojump ahead, but if a surefire thing to happen. i don't want to jump ahead, but if the house goes the democrat lady, as some are predicting, what would be the president's strategy with regards to dealing with the democrats who would have the majority? it would certainly be a lot more difficult, but the president hasn't always been the biggest supporter of republicans in the house of representatives when he disagrees with them. the president has a certain style. i think what the republicans are more fea rful of think what the republicans are more fearful of is that a democratic house takeover means the democratic chairman will have the power to subpoena, we will have more robert mueller type investigations, intercessions into brett kavanaugh, investigations into everyone of the president's businesses and tax returns and sadly, that would stag nate returns and sadly, that would stagnate the country and hopefully not, but it might undo all of the economic gains we have made in the past two years. if this is a good night for democrats in terms of taking back the house, but they

don't get very far in the senate, calculation does donald trump make in terms of his rhetoric and his tone, for the 2020 presidential campaign? does he think, the red meat worked well, we come onto the senate, or does he think we lost the house, i do to turn it down a bit. -- i'd house, i do to turn it down a bit. —— i'd better turn house, i do to turn it down a bit. —— i'd betterturn it house, i do to turn it down a bit. —— i'd better turn it down. house, i do to turn it down a bit. -- i'd better turn it down. by any estimation he hasn't changed the rhetoric at all, even though people predicted he would. i am not sure, even as they will support, wishing he would change his rhetoric from time to time, that any result tonight might change his tone and substance. i think for the majority of republicans, even when you don't like the style, the tone, you don't like the style, the tone, you don't like him on style point. we are ultimately happy with the direction the country is going. republicans have promised cutting taxes, pointing conservative supreme court judges for the last two, three generations and we have just not

seeing that until we have resident donald trump. i don't think you going to see many republicans jumping ship. so if republicans lose the house of representatives tonight and they lose it why a reasonable number, are you suggesting that going into the 2020 presidential election, there is nothing donald trump is to change? no, i think you'll need to change strategy in the sense of legislation. it won't be the same as having the majority of republicans, he will not be able to pass a lot of things that he is trying to pass. as far as the rhetoric and tone, it is that changing much. i do want to get ahead of ourselves because we can get back to 2016 and what would a real after blooper reel of people like me on tv talking about the results of before they were really in. you are quite right. wise words from joe borelli, which is why we will keep you with us. we will keep coming back to you. let's show you a projection for ohio, sherritt round

was with hillary clinton, campaigned for her and then went over to bernie sanders side and that is one we would expect to come. we were warning you about which precincts we have, whether they come from rural areas, at which you might say hold on, there are only 2% in the. brown isa on, there are only 2% in the. brown is a favourite, i think it will be an upset. i think brown is an interesting candidate because he says something interesting about the state of the democratic party in the midwest. we have talked a lot about the erosion of the democratic party in the midwest and then you talk about someone like brown and there was no question that he would keep his seat, why not? shouldn't this be? it is ohio, one of the key swing state. this is still a rustbelt state. this is still a rustbelt state. i was listening to the head of one of the biggest labour unions of one of the biggest labour unions of the us say that brown is our

friend, he is for us and cares about the working class people. so much of the working class people. so much of the identity politics usage of the democrats, be it based on race or gender, brown has been an unapologetic liberal and someone who has stayed true to his roots and i think that is why it he won this race. is a counterfactual to anything we are talking about, which is that democrats who are in states who might be leaning more republican have to attack centre and brown hasn't. and union vote is, actually, the democrats do not have a stronger hold as they did 20 years ago.” would agree with ron. if you look at the governor 's race to replace basic, you have rob cordery... the consumer protection, financial bureau. he is a superb liberal. but it isa bureau. he is a superb liberal. but it is a very tight race. it is against a former senator, but he has

gone superb left. he has gone the sherrod brown route,. authenticity and genuine this is what is speaking to voters and want to see somebody who is go to stick out and be critical of trump on the democratic side, be critical of the current administration and really big bombastic about it and that is why you see these candidates. what sherrod brown —— ciobo rally was talking about and the way he deals with the house in the days ahead. —— joe borelli. of easily he will have to make a strategic decision in response to the democrats, what about house numbers on the republican side who have been bullied in the last two years but has to with him because he was good for their base. will be reassessed tomorrow? i think we are too early in the night to make judgements.“ i think we are too early in the night to make judgements. if they lose the house? if they lose the house, obviously i would expect the trump white house would be going after paul ryan and saying you

failed on this, you failed on that, you can find race properly, you didn't have support is enough where we didn't have support is enough where we wanted to make progress on certain issues, and it wouldn't surprise me, with paul ryan giving up surprise me, with paul ryan giving up the speakership, that he would fight back as well. maybe that will be the debate that takes place tomorrow if they lose the house. but they haven't lost the house yet and if they hold on to it, donald trump reigns supreme. we have a long night ahead of us. the only reason it tilts that way is because when you weigh the weight —— watch leahy campaigns up and down the country, he focused on the senate and not the house because he didn't want to be associated with the house because maybe he believed what the polls we re maybe he believed what the polls were telling him. as he told those rally —goers in west virginia with him this is about donald trump and if we win this is about donald trump. if we lose, it is on you, eu voters, because you didn't turn out. donald trump will be trying to make sure that if it is

success it is down to me. and look at the states where he has campaigned, if you look at west virginia, if you look at michigan, the states he held — and he is making this in large measure by saying i am not on the ballot, but he is in the ballot and he is looking at the senate rather than the house. try to explain this for viewers around the world. we have religiously told that donald trump is not on the ballot. he is president for two years. and then donald trump says i am on the ballot. it was the same thing with barack obama in 2010. barack obama saidi barack obama in 2010. barack obama said i am not on the ballot and then he went out and said i am on the ballot. i have to disagree with my friend here and say it is absolutely not at all like 2010 in this case. and to a degree that is much larger than anything barack obama ever did, donald trump has to be the baby at

every christening, the brighter every christening, the brighter every wedding, and it is all about him. going back to obama, he made obamacare the issue for 2010. he didn't make obama, he made it a obamacare. it was policy. he still lost three seats. one state where the affordable care act is very much on the agenda is in california, let's head to peter bowes, congressional house racers going on in california, where hillary clinton won districts, but there are republicans are sitting in those seats. yes, which is why very late at night we have two and a half hours of voting to go here, but late at night when the results come in, it could be in those seats, around six seats currently held by republicans, as you say, where hillary clinton won the voter couple of years ago, they could go from republican to the democrats, and when you are looking at the magic

23, it is quite unusual that, at the end of the evening, california could be in play, people could look to the west coast to see if they get to that magic number because of these six seats, spread throughout the state, some towards the south, the south—east of adelaide, in orange county, traditionally conservative area of course, to the seats further north in the central valley. and as you say, healthcare, as far as democrats are concerned, has been a key issue. it has certainly been the issue that democrats have been pushing stronger, the issues of immigration, which is a constant issue here in california.” immigration, which is a constant issue here in california. i do apologise, peter, i have only known him for 20 years, and i introduced him for 20 years, and i introduced him as james cook, then i look at the screen and james cook is in arizona and dear old peter in california. my sincere apologies. that is quite all right.” california. my sincere apologies. that is quite all right. i was going to dump him in it much more had he

not pull himself out of that one so iam glad not pull himself out of that one so i am glad he got to it first. let's talk about one of the california races talk about one of the california ra ces you talk about one of the california races you will remind me which one it is, it is where duncan hunter is running, and he is interesting because there are two members of congress who are running in this election who have actually already been indicted, and one of them is mr hunter and he's polling ahead, so we have a member of congress who has been indicted, and yet he could still win. exactly, yes, and the polling has tightened considerably in recent days and he has as you say been indicted for allegedly stealing something like a quarter of $1 million from campaign funds for his personal use. he has served a number of terms, he has been a popular character, and had it not been for this indictment he would have been a shoo—in to win once again but of

course things have changed. and what's extraordinary to a lot of people is perhaps this isn't bigger news, that this is an front—page news, that this is an front—page news that we have someone in a position like this who has been indicted and seems to be still getting considerable amount of support. this is in the northern san diego area. so support. this is in the northern san diego area. 50 towards the south of the state. by the way, peter bowes, thank you, we will come back to you, and you will be with us as you start to flag, we will rely on you to keep usjko to flag, we will rely on you to keep us jolly here as we get to the results. get him angry. quick comment about the race which has been one of the most ugly in terms of racial overtones in the course of these mid—term elections. duncan hunter running against a democrat by —— and mr hunter's father came out at one point and link the man to terrorism and suggested that he was a muslim and an extremist and that he had links to terrorism, which he has none of, he was brought up by

his mexican mother and raise as a catholic, not as a muslim, and it has been a race that has become big because of the tight race, the tone of the race has now gone to dick lee nasty. let's head over tojennifer weston, the district we were just talking about —— decidedly nasty. to make signs, to write postcards, to protest on the streets — you made it happen when you gave your time and your treasure and your passion to this campaign. and that is why i stand before you tonight as your congresswoman to stand before you tonight as your congresswoman to let. cheering and applause. —— elect. when we work together we accomplish

great things. because we work together we have sent a message that we together we have sent a message that we want a better nation. applause. we demand a better nation, a nation where we treat each other with dignity and with respect. cheering and applause. because we don't have to live in a nation where people are stripped of their healthcare. we don't have to live in a nation where our kids go to schools that are crumbling. we don't have to live in a nation where children are torn away from their parents at the border. cheering and applause. and we don't have to live in a nation where people live in fear of being gunned down in synagogues, churches, workplaces, movie theatres or anywhere in churches, workplaces, movie theatres oranywhere in their churches, workplaces, movie theatres or anywhere in their communities. cheering and applause. so the democratjennifer weston defeating the republican, who had

tried to run as an independent, but asjohn told you earlier, they try to ensure that a democratic vote knew that she voted with them 98% of the time and... you know, the funny thing is i have done some filming in her constituency, in the district, and normally you cannot stop a candidate coming before a camera to talk to you because they want to get their message across, but barbara comstock had a problem trying to run independent from donald trump at the same time as voting lot with donald trump soho —— so her approach was to keep things down, there were private events we couldn't access, we sought her here and there and we didn't get very close at all. so, joe bareilly, up very close at all. so, joe bareilly, up in new york for us, this race is indicative of the kind of problems that republicans who have been close

to donald trump might have if they are running in suburban areas? know, for example, where i come from in staten island, the suburban part of new york city we have a very strong republican candidate who is running with the backing of donald trump, a very vocal supporter of donald trump. when you start getting down to the house races you've got to start picking up at how each race has its own unique merits. i don't think any republican candidate is trying to wholeheartedly distanced themselves from president trump because frankly i don't think they can if they tried anyway. that makes me really sad — sorry, about barbara comstock's loss is that you have 23 republican women in the house which is already only 8% of the republican conference, it is tiny relative to the democrats, which have more than 60 women i thing in the house, 61 women, 60 women i thing in the house, 61 women, you 60 women i thing in the house, 61 women, you know, they have nine

seats that two women have retired, two are running for higher up office and five, like barbara comstock seats, are endangered and you could see a retreat of republican women in the house which could be contrary. joe, why is it that there are so many fewer women running as republicans than there are running as democrats? look, we have mata sally in arizona... you know the numbers. 80%. .. 75% sally in arizona... you know the numbers. 80%... 75% of women are running as democrats.” numbers. 80%... 75% of women are running as democrats. i certainly know the numbers. i am running as democrats. i certainly know the numbers. lam much running as democrats. i certainly know the numbers. i am much more of a partisan and ideologue, who votes simply based on gender. i would love to see more women in simply based on gender. i would love to see more women in congress. i would prefer to see more people that i agree with ideological ea and who are members of the republican party.

i think we done a good job of this. but that said when the rubber meets the road we have to choose between two candidates in any given race and foremost voters it is more about the ideology and the party of the candidate and the gender. is it, joe, or the rhetoric of the president who, let's face it, hasn't got a good record on women, he picked on women who marched at the beginning of his presidency and certainly when you poll women that are like this president. look, i think the president was the first president to win an election race with a female campaign manager, his spokesperson, the person that is the visible voice and the image of the white house is a woman, i do think this president has not gone out of

his way to demean any woman. i will concede that the republican party could do a betterjob of recruiting and getting women candidates. i don't think that's a reflection on the president himself. the way that he dealt with doctor ford in the brett kava naugh confirmation, he dealt with doctor ford in the brett kavanaugh confirmation, first of all he said she had to be heard, then he dismissed, and a lot of women didn't like that. it is not that he dismissed her, there was no corroborating evidence to support herclaim. a lot corroborating evidence to support her claim. a lot of republicans were motivated by the speech from lindsey graham. when you look at the evidence laid out before brett kavanaugh and you realise that nothing doctor ford was saving had any corroborating witness statement or physical evidence — granted, it was 30 years earlier — republican women were was 30 years earlier — republican women were to was 30 years earlier — republican women were to some degree was 30 years earlier — republican women were to some degree motivated by it. the latest nbc polls had donald trump at the highest of any of the nbc polls and that was before

kavanaugh. joe borelli, thank you for making time, it was great to have you on the programme. let's go to missouri and speak with cbs news's dean reynolds. we haven't spoken much about missouri, but it is perhaps the most critical senate race from the democratic point of view. how is it looking going into this election for claire mcaskill, democratic senator hoping to hold onto the seat in the rather red state of missouri? they are both expressing, both candidates, express a great deal of confidence but the confidence is grounded in no particular reality because this race isa particular reality because this race is a tossup, it has been that way for months, apparently both sides are locked in. even repeated trips by president trump on behalf of the state attorney general and republican candidate josh hawley,

has not really moved the needle that much, in fact, senator claire mccaskill has said of mr trump ausmat repeated visits here that it" shows how much he wants to get rid of me". —— mr trump's repeated visits here. while they are as i say expressing confidence no one here is an early night. it is interesting that it an early night. it is interesting thatitis an early night. it is interesting that it is so close, because when you look at recent presidential elections, obama didn't win missouri and donald trump took it by nearly 20 points, so you would think that josh hawley would be in with a really good shout. well, you would, thatis really good shout. well, you would, that is true — claire mccaskill is sort of, i don't know, she is an exception to the rule. when she ran for re—election six years ago she ran againsta for re—election six years ago she ran against a terribly flawed republican candidate who got all

scrambled up on things like what was a legitimate rape and all sorts of staff that led to her overwhelming victory — josh hawley, the state attorney general, is another kettle of fish, and he's had this big boost from mr trump. he also enjoys, according to our latest polling, a considerable advantage among evangelical voters in this state and they made up a third of the electorate in 2016. how does she stay afloat? well, she's unknown figure, she was a state auditor before she became a senator and she is popular. she has also kind of walked a tight rope between being a democrat and occasionally supporting the president. this last week she has talked about how she supports its immigration policy, she wants

the caravan of migrants stopped at the caravan of migrants stopped at the border etc, now it's a question over whether those middle voters will see that as a recipe for compromise, maybe, maybe progress in congress, or some sort of unsavoury positioning by herjust to win votes. dean reynolds in misery for us. thank you. i spoke to claire mccaskill just as the us. thank you. i spoke to claire mccaskilljust as the brett kavanaugh mccaskilljust as the brett kava naugh news and mccaskilljust as the brett kavanaugh news and the news of the letter first came out and she said to me that she felt she said she could survive voting no on brett kavanaugh, but could survive voting no on brett kava naugh, but could could survive voting no on brett kavanaugh, but could not survive a no vote if it was in anyway seem be unfair, messy, tampered with or politicised. we will watch and see if that is happened. that go to florida, there is an interesting situation in florida at the moment, where the senate race between bill nelson, the sitting democratic senator, and the republican governor

rick scott, who is trying to set a post in. 82% of the vote in —— precinct in, too close to call. 49.6% for bill nelson, 50.4% for john so. it —— sopel. it will be a squeaker overnight. it is. as he said, we have to wait what counties can't inform florida. that is 82%, and awful lot. an awful lot are in, we are getting this suggestion from indiana that it is going to republicans way and thatjoe donnelly is likely to lose. in which case, we have not talked about north kota —— talked about nd, which is a democratic state with heidi heitkamp in there. i was up there recently and they don't have much at all. we are talking already about two republican gains so far in the senate race. it makes it very

difficult to see. it also vindicates donald trump. yes, he was in indiana four times, donald trump. yes, he was in indiana fourtimes, in donald trump. yes, he was in indiana four times, in florida a lot. he has targeted, people have said he sacrificed a house for the senate andi sacrificed a house for the senate and i think that probably it was just too much, given how many days he had to do this campaigning. it was easier to do a number of states that it was to do to each individual house race. one other race, i want to get to this one, kentucky's sick congressional district, of course a very republican state —— state itself, that has been held by the republican andy barr, it is close, but andy barr has held it, the republicans will be happy about that. it is early, are we starting to look at the idea that the big blue wave is a small blue wave if there is one at all? if it relates

to the senate, guest. there was no doubt that the republicans were —— the democrats are going to do well in the senate, it is the house of representatives that is worrying. hillary clinton. this by 47% but look at the amount of money spent. the republican candidates spent nearly $70 million in this race to deal with an incumbent who only spent 33. it indicates to me how important it is if you are able to raise money and spend money on what was that say about the state of our politics? i worry about this, $68 million or one senate race. there are 29 electoral vote is in florida and he spent more time with the governor in florida and he did with rick scott, who was going for the senate, which tells you everything about that district efforts which will go on in florida in 2020. as we have said so often tonight, the

governor 's mansion, so many looking ata governor 's mansion, so many looking at a house in the senate, governor mentions that will determine where the congressional lines are drawn and whether the emigrants or the republicans have that big event it. claire mcaskill has been on cable television asking how things have been going, and she said i have no flipping idea how it will go. —— claire mccaskill. that is claire mccaskill for you. anthony, let's checkin mccaskill for you. anthony, let's check in with you again, it has been an hoursince we check in with you again, it has been an hour since we last spoke, how has it gone and what are you looking at tonight, what does the rest look like at this early stage of the evening? it is still very early. one of the races i have been watching over the past hour in particular is in florida, south florida seek to lay a republican, who was retiring, that has been picked up by a democrat, a young republican, spanish—language television host who had runa spanish—language television host who had run a very strong race, but clinton carried that district about

20 percentage points, so it was not that surprising that donna shalala won that surprising that donna shalala won it. that is the only one that democrats can feel good about, there are other seats that could have falle n are other seats that could have fallen to the democrats and didn't. the governor 's race is very close, the senate race is very close, at least so far, democrats appear to be getting that a minimum they have to do to stay on track to win the house of representatives, but there is a long way to go. and quickly, what are you looking forward, the next power we have coming up, the states closing, what are you looking at? eye and keeping an eye on pennsylvania, returns are coming in and it attracts penthouse, the keystone state could be the key. there are several districts that they could pick up, so pennsylvania could be blue, very important for democrats hoped. thank you, we will check back with you in an hours.

jodie, before we lose you for the evening, the senate race, if indiana has drawn in the republicans direction and they have takenjoe donnelly‘s sit there, it is pretty much for the democrats to take the senate, or too early to say? it is too early to say but they would almost have two win apathy game. -- almost have two win apathy game. -- a perfect game. the polls today looked slightly better for joe donnelly today. they would have to get arizona, very tough get for them, partly arizona. they really have to run through it. 35 senate seats, a third voting red, 26 of them were democratic seats. ten of those seats are in areas that donald trump had won the. democrats always thought this would be a major losing

here for them, they never dreamt that they would be within striking distance. one thing i am interested in watching is nd, everybody has written her off and heidi heitkamp knows nd very well. she raised $30 million for the brett kavanaugh boat and everybody thought it would kill her but she taught convincingly about her mother being a victim of sexual assault and that is an interesting race, to see how that was played out. i was there and in bismarck with her and we travelled around. she is clearly a very popular, very easy, down to earth, there is no battle bus, she just arrived in someone's little old car at this event where i went to with her. immensely popular with ordinary people. she has also had some terrible missteps in her campaign and one of them was naming without consent, a whole pile of women who had been victims of sexual assault, which was a catastrophe.” had been victims of sexual assault, which was a catastrophe. i will use this word only once tonight, soya

beans. the sweeping trade in north kota. that is another thing, we don't know whether the farmers, a lot of them have been very hard, most of the soya beans in nd and up in china and are not there are any more as a result of the tariffs in retaliation to what donald trump has done on tony's products. sweeping sales down by about 70%. —— china's products. john, we will lose you too, you do present the today programme. we will be watching. you said that very unconvincingly! what are you looking forward to? we have to see more of these house races in urging. it is hard to see a path towards the taking the senate, i think we have got to look at these house races. what we have seen at florida 27 and virginia ten, out

liars, all will this be a part of someone else? i think it will be a very mixed result and you will have politicians from both sides tried to claim theirown politicians from both sides tried to claim their own little victories and ignoring their losses. john, we will let you go, you will stay with us because we have much more to come and we will be back with the election special at the top of the hours. hello there. although it is being relatively mild for the rest of this week and in the into the weekend, it will be turning a lot more unsettled and that is because of this area of low pressure, which will be very slowly moving its way eastwards across our shores, bringing in a series of weather fronts. very slowly because they hit that area of high pressure of the nick compton. either way, it will bring mild air from the south or the south—west for the next few days. this morning is starting off on a pretty grotty

note, heavy rain through western areas, for northern ireland we could seek mist and fog, light winds and a cool start, elsewhere, breezy and a light start. through the morning, the heaviest of the rain will remain across western areas, pushing back into eastern northern ireland. elsewhere we should see sunshine but a whole rash of henbury, —— heavy, thundery showers in western areas and it will be a blustery day away from northern ireland, despite that, fairly mild, temperatures where you get sunshine, reaching the midteens, either ten or 11 further west. the rain continuous and through this evening and pushes northwards. something dry with light wind moving from the south—west, very brief regional high—pressure. as we had on into thursday looking at this next weather front, bringing into thursday looking at this next weatherfront, bringing further into thursday looking at this next weather front, bringing further wet weather, initially to the south—west corner, pushing up into wales, sliding into the irish sea into northwest england and into southern scotla nd northwest england and into southern scotland later on in the day. after that calls out, many areas have a

bright day to the north—west and the south—east of this weather front, temperatures reaching 14 or 15 degrees in the south—east. looking to the west and the next very low pressure bringing a spell of very wet and windy weather for friday. this one could eventually be disruptive. is slowly moving in, it looks at much of central and eastern areas, bar the odd shower, should the driver sunshine and the rain will pack up across south—western areas in towards wales and across many other western areas. predicate and persistent rain in the south coming back, very strong wind, which could cause disruption. stay tuned to the forecast for friday. again, it could be pretty mild, especially in the east where we have sunshine, 13, 14 celsius. in the east where we have sunshine, 13,14 celsius. philip and in the east where we have sunshine, 13, 14 celsius. philip and settled into the weekend, blustery showers, some sunshine and remaining mild with south—west heavy wind. welcome back to the bbc‘s coverage of these 2018 american mid—term elections. results are coming across the country. we can take a look at the

state of the race so far in both the house of representatives and the senate. there you can see. democrats in the senate have 32, the republicans have 42. in the house of representatives, the democrats have 40. the republicans have 50. in the senate, and rearrange it, there are 100 seats. the house of representatives there are 135. at the moment it is far too early to say which party has taken control of either the house or the senate. as the numbers have come in and as some of the races have started to come in is looking more positive democrats in the house of representatives than it is in the senate. the democrats need a net gain of 23 in the house of representatives, the lower house. the republicans have a majority of just two. they will be looking to pick up. we have already talked about missouri and indiana where things are going pretty well so far, it would seem, for the republicans. also closed in a number of states,

including arizona, colorado, new mexico, north dakota, and new york. we are certainly going to be watching that senator rate in arizona. one thing we will definitely know by the end of the night, it is a certainty that there will be a first female senator in arizona. two women. that is another free fun fact for you. it is 9pm on the east coast of the united states will stop 6pm in california, where they will be voting still for several hours. —— of the united states. ron christie is with us. you will be with us throughout the night. howard dean is the former democratic governor of vermont, and emily maitlis. howard dean, how big is that blue wave, is there a way that all? there is somewhat of a

wave. we lost one in kentucky that i thought if mcgrath had one then that clearly would have signalled something very bad for the republicans. but she didn't. it was very close. i think we are in for a long night, as we often are in the midterms. have the democrats picked up midterms. have the democrats picked up any seats in the house of representatives, any districts that have surprised you that you thought they would not? there was donna shalala, she did dispatch the younger hispanic woman who was running as a republican. that was a pickup for us. nobody knew for sure that would happen. donna was very confident about that. a lot of observers were confident about that. a lot of observe rs we re not. confident about that. a lot of observers were not. donna was right. emily. what is interesting about what governor dean is saying. he is saying there are lot of not traditional looking democrats. they are veterans, military, you look at

mcgrath, a fighter pilot, she was a marine, one of the first of her kind. jones, the candidate in texas 23, from a philippine background. also military background. you don't expect to see, she is gay, she is military, she is a democrat, and she is female. it is a totally different look. the other person we are keeping a close eye on his abigail spanbroek, virgina seven. she is very close. she is running against david brat. she is former cia. as you talk to her, and they said were cheap flight deck espionage or politics, she said i am a suburban mum, so somewhere between trying to sell people cookies as a school fete and asking them despite their country is asking for the vote. she is wearing is very lightly. a democrat credentials. reminding people of security. you are fresh

back from george. speaking to stacey abrahams. she is not typical either. in georgia. that is a very confiscated race for another series of questions. they are mainly to do with a real question of whether the secretary of state for georgia should also be running as a candidate right now. there are allegations of voter suppression. it is particularly hitting the black community, african—american is a very red state. a red meat state of georgia. imagine trying to run against a candidate who also controls the party apparatus of the state as well. we have had some results come in. they are on the senate side. in wyoming there is a hold for the republican candidate. he is somebody who is senior in the republican leadership, close to donald trump. we expected him to

hold onto his senate seat. in pennsylvania we have bob casey, the democrat, he has held onto seat. no surprise. these are not toss up is. one that was a bit of a toss up, perhaps newjersey, bob menendez. he has held onto seat as well. there has held onto seat as well. there has been some speculation that bob menendez, who has had a cloud of investigation over him, he might lose those going into the final polling day. he was ahead in the polls. he has held onto that. something the democrats will be happy about. we go to newjersey. nada tawfik is there. this good news for the democrats, perhaps not totally unexpected. but a sigh of relief for democrats up there in new jersey. yeah. absolutely. a huge sigh of relief. remember, caddick, that democrats were forced to pour millions of dollars in two new jersey, a seat that hillary clinton won by 14 points and it should have

been safe —— katty. it is because he is merely an opponent poured in $30 million in ads, reminding voters about that trial on criminal charges of bribery against bob menendez. he was severely admonished. those ads by bob hewden reminded people about that. bob menendez is not that popular in newjersey. he has been in his seat for more than a decade, really. voters said they had to hold their nose when they were going to be ballot box. we have spoken a lot about this. it is because of president trump and they know that what is at stake is notjust whether a corrupt politician, in their view, the debate as to whether or not somebody is corrupt or not, it is about how they see the direction of this country going and how they wa nted this country going and how they wanted to possibly change. we saw ray loss of democrats saying that

they were just ray loss of democrats saying that they werejust going ray loss of democrats saying that they were just going to go in, voted democrat downey ballot, vote for bob menendez to try to make sure that the democrats have the best chance going in —— democrat down the ballot. i would think the republicans in newjersey would be crying foul and sheer hypocrisy, because they will point to the democratic outcry when republicans we re democratic outcry when republicans were trying to get roy moore in alabama into that special election seat. and every body said you cannot pour money into that seat to elect a man like that. that is exactly what they have done by a man who has been admonished by the senate.” they have done by a man who has been admonished by the senate. i am not sure many people would equate roy moore with bob menendez. that might be going too far. howls of outrage. even ron christie is saying it might be pushing it a little bit. let me help you out here. laughter. let me help you out here. one of the

things that is important to look at, and a nerdy spirit of what you were trying to say, is that the republicans bought $30 million in this race —— know what she was dying to say. menendez spent less than 10 million. what is that tell you? the republicans thought this was a genuine opportunity for a pickup. republicans thought this was a genuine opportunity for a pickupm was his money though. he was the head of a very successful drug company. he was very wealthy. i'm not sure how much... their hypocrisy there has been. we have taken it away. —— the hypocrisy. don't try. but menendez as healthy as. we are watching some house races in new jersey. —— has held his. it could be important if the blue wave is more than we think it will be. the democrats will have to hold those. yeah. absolutely. they need to pick up yeah. absolutely. they need to pick up those four seat that they could ta ke up those four seat that they could take away from republicans. these

will be key determinants from our democrats will do in the future. you have for example, seven districts, leonard lands. he is one of the republicans that is in danger —— leather gloves. democrats had to pick that up. voters are not satisfied he has gone to washington and reined in the president enough. you have an interesting race in the 11th district. we talked a lot about women 11th district. we talked a lot about women in the suburban areas and how they could make the difference for democrats. one was motivated enough to win, to run, mikey cheryl. she is a former navy pilot and prosecutor. she is trying to take over a seat that was in republican hands for decades. several interesting house races. we go to nancy pelosi, the woman who would like to be next

speaker of the house, the democratic leader. he she is in washington. the democratic record for the people. democrats will lower healthcare costs a nd democrats will lower healthcare costs and drug costs for seniors and families across america. instead, mr conneu families across america. instead, mr connell and the republicans have put medicare and medicaid on the chopping block and will continue their call assault on the projections for people with pre—existing conditions. democrats will raise workers wages with strong economic growth by rebuilding america. instead republicans stacked the economy further against working men and women and more toward big corporations and the wealthiest 1%. democrats will clean up corruption to make washington work for the american people. republicans will only continue the toxic gop culture of cronyism, incompetence, and corruption that grows more brazen everyday. we have seen washington

republicans work relentlessly to distract, divide, and cover up anything, to shift the focus from the gop's tax scam for the rich and their call —— rule campaign to take away america's healthcare. but we don't agonise, we organise. cheering. many of you across the country our volu nteers many of you across the country our volunteers in politics, our vips. women and men mobilised in historic numbers. you and they saw that this gop congress was doing and they refused to stand silent. —— whoppers. i tell them and tell you every step he took, every door you not, every text you sent every conversation you have, it made the difference between winning and losing in this election. thanks to you we have owned the ground. these volu nteers you we have owned the ground. these volunteers and you were attracted an

inspired by an incredible generation, new of democratic candidates who have connected their vision and their values with those of the american people. their constituents. nancy pelosi they're speaking in washington. i ahead this morning, howard dean, she sounded extremely confident —— i spoke to nancy pelosi this morning. she seemed to think there was a chance of holding the numbers in the senate about speaking of one footer she was very confident about the house. she has ever got it in public as well. has he overplayed that? it is hard to say. i do think we have a shot at the house. a shot? excuse me. at the senate. i would give it 50—50. i think o'rourke will win in texas. but we had a much better opponent thani but we had a much better opponent than i thought we would have in arizona. north dakota is very tough for us. we have to win missouri and indiana to have a shot at the

senate. does nancy pelosi wake up torah morning as the speaker of the house of representatives? -- wake up tomorrow morning. there are a number of new candidates running that have said they would not vote for her. nancy is extraordinarily talented. and we do need new much younger leadership for the party. that is where the bases. my guess is she works out some sort of deal, she remains the speaker or she becomes the speaker... is. if we win the majority was that she has a much younger leadership. as an interim leader. she has talked about herself as transitional leader. there has been a focus on nancy pelosi in republican areas. that has more to do with republicans aiming at people. i don't know why she is an easy target but apparently she is. she has become this sort of bogeyman. that is free to use. in the way her name is used to conjure

up the way her name is used to conjure up sort of west coast, as if you don't understand the place you are from, as if you are a liberal who would be totally irresponsible of money and all the rest of it, how has that come to be? how had she come to be this person doesn't represent, she is mistakenly plated hillary clinton now, hasn't she? that is an easy one to answer. she represents what the republicans look at as the coastal elites. we don't ca re at as the coastal elites. we don't care about people imply the country, people who are part of in our raval to be can go down the list and she is very easy for republicans to demonise and fundraiser gains. the question is will that be enough to get republicans are the line in some of these swing districts? looking at newjersey, rick of these swing districts? looking at new jersey, rick zabel, of these swing districts? looking at newjersey, rick zabel, republicans are in deep trouble in newjersey. if you're looking at a democratic wave if you're looking at a democratic wave of where they might break and pick up ground in the 23 seats, it is suburban philadelphia and the suburban new york markets that have republicans worried. where four races in newjersey. if

we ta ke where four races in newjersey. if we take three of them, we are under way. if we take for them, the republicans will have a tough night. deveson is now in jeopardy. republicans will have a tough night. deveson is now injeopardy. as republicans will have a tough night. deveson is now in jeopardy. as the donald trump supporter in the region in newjersey more conservative than others. we have a great candidate there. if we would got all four in newjersey, italy over for the night. the average age of the top three leaders of the democratic party in the house of representatives is about 74. it may now become 75. the average age of the top three leaders of the republican party is 48. they could you send to the democrat problem. maybe they are hoping that they are going to find it down texas. ted cruz‘s campaign party. when another will be a party or awake. we do now will be a party or awake. we do now will go yet. —— a wake. what is your

breed there, gary o'donoghue? we're starting to see some of the numbers indicating the early votes. these are not the votes counted today they would —— these are not the votes cast today. but these are the numbers. there was about a point or appointed a half advantage while the count was going on. just over 51% to ted cruz‘s 48. it does confirm this idea that amongst early voters, there are a lot of young people amongst the early voters that would have tended towards the democratic party. things are still far too early to give any sort of general view about what is good to happen here. but definitely i don't think that you are looking at a whitewash here or anything like that. that has been borne out in the polling as well in recent days. even though ted

cruz has had a six or seven point lead pretty consistently over the last month. and whatever happens in texas, i mean, he has really lit up the democratic side of the campaign. he would be seen potentially as a 2020 candidate, wouldn't he?” he would be seen potentially as a 2020 candidate, wouldn't he? i think thatis 2020 candidate, wouldn't he? i think that is absolute right. this is one of the issues that parties in this country have got parties in opposition. had you create the next generation that recognisable on a national stage, you know, in the sense that you don't really have leaders of the opposition in the traditional way that you might have in britain and in other places in europe. so it is very difficult for the democrats to get their stars of the democrats to get their stars of the future exposed in this way. i think they have done a large extent. the dearly because the amount of money that has been spent here in texas. they remind this is an uphill struggle for any democrat, still. no democrat has won a senate seat here

since the days of lloyd benson back in 1888. no democrat has held statewide office since the early 19905. statewide office since the early 1990s. this is a pretty conservative state. that feeling has always been that it state. that feeling has always been thatitis state. that feeling has always been that it is about to turn, about to turn democrat. it is or has been about to do it, but perhaps if a raucous but do it this time, he will be part of the think that galvanises democrats to organise a recruit in texasin democrats to organise a recruit in texas in a way that creates a real challenges. gary o'donoghue there. done at ted cruz‘s event in taxes. we'll keep our eye a one, thanks. we go to another result that we can bring to you. this is our cbs news which is predicting that in west virginia, where christian and i were last week of the democrat senator there, sitting senator, has held to seek 51% to 45%. this is an interesting one because you imagine

has run as a conservative democrat ina very has run as a conservative democrat in a very pro— donald trump seat. he won by 70% of the vote in 2016. was there ever a real question whether john major would lose in west virginia, dipping?” john major would lose in west virginia, dipping? i don't think so. he isa virginia, dipping? i don't think so. he is a popular senator. he votes very strongly fought his state. —— mansion. when you look at trying to knock off a sitting governor, as you know from having served, if you take ca re of know from having served, if you take care of your constituents and they think that you are doing the right thing for them, they will do the right thing and put you back in office. —— the president hardly talked at all about healthcare at all. this is been a big thing for joe manchin. the image of about a third of the state. west virginia is one of the poor estates in the country, very conservative culturally. for a long time it was worth democratic because of the

labour issues. but you could say a lot about the joe manchin and the democrats, but he is a great politician. he has his pulse on the finger of his constituents. he did note in which he was seen holding a gun. a very pro— gun rights candidate. but an interesting thing aboutjoe manchin, he is so pro— gun rights, that are featured in the sandy hook school, it was joe manchin on the democrat side who could partner with the republican senator to try to bring about going control laws in the country. it did not pass, and it didn't pass because it was voted down north dakota... donald trump actually has a bit of a soft spot forjoe manchin. any that seat. but he quite likes him. they love joe manchin, seat. but he quite likes him. they lovejoe manchin, they love donald trump in west virginia because he

has done some astute deregulates energy, and they are hoping that if he wins another four years he will do more to deregulate the energy industry. but the long—term future as even a donald trump supporter said to us in west virginia, is not coal. it is not. that train has left the station. it is not coal. certainly there have been a lot of jobs in the coal energy business at a comeback, but that is not the future of west virginia. then one of the reasons i think thatjoe manchin was so successful in their elected tonight if these numbers hold up is that he's going to try to say to them that he understands the democratic change, and they understand that the focus of the industry has changed a bit they will lead the change, and all politics is local. i believe that he believed that he is with them. look at the senate, because we had ten or 11 close seats, joe donnelly going down. what about arizona, because

over there you have martha mcsally, the republican, versus christian cinema. they are fighting for the open seat ofjeff flake. what are you picking up? peoples because the 22 minutes. are we getting any scientist to which way that race is going? that is right. the short answer to that is no we're not. it is too close to call this race. and it has been too close to call or weeks. it is not a surprise that it still remains too close to call. it really has been a fiercely contested battle between martha mcsally, a former fighter pilot of the republicans, and custom cinema for the democrats. this cinema painted asa the democrats. this cinema painted as a radical leftist. but she had arguably pushed into the centre. a lot of people are saying it is not with you do here, but people here are saying we might not have a result of night and i go on for a

day or two before the cat is done. it is too early to say that the sure at this moment. i think we have lost james cook there. as soon as we get that feedback again we do have one other. we keep our eye on florida. we've been keeping our ayia napa because of the evening. we 92% in. still too close to call. 49.6% to the democrat bill nelson, 50.4 to the democrat bill nelson, 50.4 to the republican. bill nelson had got an 8—point lead in that race, and thatis an 8—point lead in that race, and that is tighter than we thought. so we ta ke that is tighter than we thought. so we take a quick look at the way the senate looks overall, because we have at these bunch of races coming in. the democrats at the moment are on 34. the democrats, let us remind you again, in america, they are blue, and the republicans are red. it is the opposite from what it is in the uk. the democrats are at 34, the republicans are at 44. at the

moment, emily maitlis, looking better for the republicans to moment, emily maitlis, looking betterfor the republicans to night. not because they are at 34 versus 44, but because they've had begun so they will be happy with. yes, and one of the interesting things, picking up on joe one of the interesting things, picking up onjoe manchin, is the way the democrats are red states are acting, the way they are fighting theircampaigns. acting, the way they are fighting their campaigns. you saw phil brotherson, hoping to take on the sea. it is now being confirmed that he has lost, or that he did not mention tibet from the republicans. but the former governor, very well done, if anyone had a chance in that state of taking tenancy for the democrats, this is that he was well— known and who kept his cards quite close to his chat to make chest. he said if i were you senator in this particular moment, i would back cavanagh. if he lost in tennessee, he has lost to 70 who has tied hotel is closely to donald trump. that's quickly flatter one up. we can bring in a result. it has

been confirmed. penycae 61%. not even close. go into it, marsha blackburn, close to donald trump, we have interviewed her several times in our programme. she was one of the first female republicans to come out in congress, a congresswoman to come out in support of donald trump. he has always presented a support because of that. all because during the actors hollywood time, when he was having a difficult time with the voters, marsha blackburn was a list stuck with them. it depends whether these pressings are from rural areas orfrom urban these pressings are from rural areas or from urban areas. these pressings are from rural areas orfrom urban areas. they'll these pressings are from rural areas or from urban areas. they'll make a difference. phil brotherson, and christie, one when he was running for his second term as governor. he won for his second term as governor. he w0 n every for his second term as governor. he won every single county in tennessee. usually popular. we have talked so much about the donald trump effect of night. additionally holds that the republicans win. it could be that the job affect help

the republicans. he is still seen as very popular in tennessee. don't forget the taylor swift effect. his best lovechild came out and said vote democrat, and every were digested, oh, taylor swift.“ vote democrat, and every were digested, oh, taylor swift. if this is gone to the republicans, if this is gone to the republicans, if this is gone to march blackburn, this senate seat, how much of a blow is that? this is an open sea with no encumbered advantage. taylor swift had an effect, though. 98,000 young people voted early opposed to 12,000 in the mid— jazz. people voted early opposed to 12,000 in the mid- jazz. and she made by the weight... and she was backing the weight... and she was backing the day, he said, go ahead with kavanagh. taylor swift's reaches even bigger than christian and minor

thing. clearly yes. at this moment i am watching in vienna. we cannot lose in and have a shot at the senate. i was believing that it would have a shot at the senate, we needed to take texas, arizona, nevada, and lose one seat. i was a cat in tennessee, but if we lose two seats, which we can easily do, and losers... 50% of the votes in, the caveat is we do know about indianapolis, the big urban area, but this is quite a client that he has to make, and other 12 percentage points. and we do know what it is a nemecz or the difference. on that note, i think kellyanne conway and a couple of others of the trump team we re couple of others of the trump team were on the ground in indianapolis, right there. this was the place that matters. let's call that. we can

call indiana. it has been taken by the republicans. this is to the republicans. mike braun takes indiana, doesn't hold indiana, but ta kes indiana, doesn't hold indiana, but takes it from the democrat howard dean. i would now say that is there to say that the delegates will not figure in the senate to know. it would be assured if we did. they would be assured if we did. they would have to take that much everything else and hold everything else. i think that is an important point to make but also one that is worth repeating. this is a breach of cycle per democrats who have a third of the seats are. ten of these districts are areas that daughter and carried. you put the viewers realise the democrats had a very difficult and when facing them. and just to throw forward to follow on from that, in 2020, at the map favours democrats in a way that it is favouring republicans this time around. in light of all we've been through with brett kavanagh and the importance of numbers in the senate, he will think that he can maybe get

someone else in the supreme court within the next 18 months. i'm sure he will. that will change america in a seismic wave. it is and it isn't. there is an awful lot exaggeration in this business, as you know, and unnecessary breathlessness. let's not talk about newjersey. unnecessary breathlessness. let's not talk about new jersey. we unnecessary breathlessness. let's not talk about newjersey. we wake backin not talk about newjersey. we wake back in newjersey. i still smiling. this rule in politics, that if you are ina this rule in politics, that if you are in a whole, stopped eating, as they say. now i have lost the thought. there is a lot of hyperbole about the supreme court. this will change everything for a generation. clarence thomas is in his 70s. there are others in their 60s. this is not going to change everything for a generation. but it is going to make a difference. we have yet to see, there is a lot of speculation thatjohn

have yet to see, there is a lot of speculation that john roberts have yet to see, there is a lot of speculation thatjohn roberts maybe the swing vote. the court is very far out of step where most americans are on social issues in particular. the other thing is most people believe the court is simply a political body. respect for the supreme court has dropped dramatically because of the staff. starting with caution. —— bush. this will not serve as a prisoner for any other case. they made it up. a good chiefjustice would never do that. you would never have a case of that magnitude and the chiefjustice would make sure it was 90. the supreme court, with the chief justice voting with the majority, said obamacare was legal. they thought the supreme court injected themselves. i think they did. i think it was a political percolation only part ofjohn roberts two not

further alienate the public from court. before we get into the biography of the supreme court emily maitlis. if democrats have not taken the senate. what impact does that have on donald trump for the next two years. there were so many negatives stop if they haven't taken the senate... we are going to assume that they are not going to take the senate. with republicans hold the senate. with republicans hold the senate what impact does that have on property next two years?“ senate what impact does that have on property next two years? if they ta ke property next two years? if they take the house, if they take the house than they have a chance to start investigations. they have the chance to start impeachment. one of the interesting flipside of this was the interesting flipside of this was the democrats could gain the house, feel resurgent and energised than the rest of it. and then going into the rest of it. and then going into the next two years, of course, if things go wrong, they are part of the problem. as soon as things don't go according to plan the electorate remembers that actually the democrats now control the house and

maybe their return donald trump to the white house with more energy. the dilemma is how much to push on the subpoenas and we can mention the word impeachment, it probably won't go there. how far will they go? i was told back in april or may, by a close confident of donald trump, that they were desperate for the democrats to fight the midterms on impeachment. right. nothing could have been better than to make the whole thing a referendum. that is why if you listen to the democrats they have hardly mentioned it. certainly in the past few weeks. they wanted about healthcare will stop more they talk about health get the more they think they are reminding people that that is the premiership. theyjust don't want to talk about immigration. you hear what you want to hear. they lie through their teeth. martha mcsally, she went up with mike pence and said i support existing conditions. at no time did she support protection

against pre—existing conditions. she voted against it about 50 times when she was in the house. even i is a veteran of american politics looked at that and that how is this possible that she could get away with it? the health-care issue almost doesn't make sense. it almost makes as little sense as the gun issue. we just makes as little sense as the gun issue. wejust don't makes as little sense as the gun issue. we just don't get it. we don't get why you wouldn't want the whole country to be utterly protected by the health service. what you wouldn't necessarily get is that for the elections the republicans fought on repeal and replace for obamacare. now it is a rallying cry for the democrats. they said if you give us the honour and the privilege to govern again we will repeal obamacare. the privilege to govern again we will repeal obamaca re. they the privilege to govern again we will repeal obamacare. they run —— several cycles on this. the democrats have very shrewdly, i think, overtaken healthcare as the issue and are using that as a weapon against republicans. if we look at what happened in virginia tech this evening, but racon stop going down. they thought republicans won't go dr

wei. this is a congressional race for the house of representatives in florida. florida is 15. a republican hold. this had been one of those once that was seen as something of a tossup. but the state representative, ross banner, the republican candidate has held that. we need more of these house races to come in before we can say which way the house is going. howard dean, the same question to you. if the status quo exists in the senate, does it mean, does it change anything in terms of donald trump. it easier? if you are running for re—election and you are running for re—election and you have a republican as a senator ina you have a republican as a senator in a state that is a tossup state, you will be happier than if you have a democrat, writes? not necessarily. i would disagree with what emily said about being able to blame the

house for not getting anything done. gigg lane always ends up in the present's lab, no matter which party the president is. if things don't go well be president takes the hit. which is what newt gingrich brisbane genius was. he threw a spanner wrench into everything. he managed to wriggle out of it. i agree with what you said about impeachment. you cannot get a republican senate to convince the president of the united states unless there is something really dreadful that has gone on. the results are not coming in thick and fast. we will focus on the tossu p and fast. we will focus on the tossup districts in the house races tonight. we said there were around 6o tonight. we said there were around 60 or70. tonight. we said there were around 60 or 70. these are the early results. at the moment we are not seeing any evidence of this blue wave. some people on twitter are seeing a blue wave, more like a blue ripple. what do you make of those results ? ripple. what do you make of those results? these are the ones that have been called so far. they were

republican. they have both become democrat. they are seeds that the democrats have picked up. the republicans have managed to hold onto two races that were seen as tossup. florida's 15 in kentucky's sixth. but the bottom two are the ones they were hoping to take, particularly in kentucky six. the notion that if you are going to have a democratic way this evening you had to run all four of those districts you have there. —— away either. the duck is a blow to that. democrats may very well taken of the house this evening. at thisjuncture the republicans are holding on the line a lot better than when many thought we would be at this juncture of the evening. 9:37pm on the east coast, ron christie, you are not saying there is a blue wave.” coast, ron christie, you are not saying there is a blue wave. i would saying there is a blue wave. i would say a blue ripple. his high dollar bill is on the table. it has been on the table all week. how are you

going, howard dean?” the table all week. how are you going, howard dean? ithink it is too early to say. there were always going to be very tough. but pulled himself together and have a ton of money. they wanted to save this seat and they did. there are other seats that i think a much more important in trying to figure out how much of a wave in trying to figure out how much of a wave there is. there is a seat in upstate new york, westchester, really critical. in the four in new jersey. california, the polls haven't closed yet. there are four out there, if we don't get some of those... out there, if we don't get some of those. . . and out there, if we don't get some of those... and pennsylvania. pennsylvania is a special case. we had better get a whole bunch of those. the gerrymandering being taken those. the gerrymandering being ta ken away should those. the gerrymandering being taken away should benefit us. those. the gerrymandering being taken away should benefit us! those. the gerrymandering being taken away should benefit us. a lot of you are watching florida. this is the senate race, still too close to call. 93% of the precinct in, the republican governor, rick scott, is a head, 50.5, that is ahead of the sitting senator bill nelson. this

will be a blow to democrats if they don't keep their senate seat in florida. we still have a 7% of pre—16. i imagine there are going to be some pretty nervous democrats around to this evening.” be some pretty nervous democrats around to this evening. i was talking to a democrat source early in the night. she said this is giving her a bad in the night. she said this is giving hera bad memory in the night. she said this is giving her a bad memory of 2016 were earlier in the night democrats were looking at the results and feeling extremely excited. they thought change was coming. around 9pm in 2016, she takes me at around nine o'clock 2018. she said that is when they realised they were not going to get the success that they had hoped for. she said that maybe they were too excited about their chances. she was pretty downbeat. of course, there are some democrats are saying wait, it is very close. we are

talking about percentage points, less tha n talking about percentage points, less than a percentage point in the big races, for governor and senate that you mentioned, but it does not look good for the democratic party here. the people i have been speaking to are pretty downbeat. here. the people i have been speaking to are pretty downbeatm rick scott wins that race, do you think it is because he kept some distance from donald trump, particularly when it came to climate change and perhaps an immigration as well? i think it is a tricky one. one of the things that probably went in rick scott's favour, assuming he goes on to win the race tonight, is that he is a very well—known person in this state. we talk a lot about the voters down the middle, those of suburban white women who perhaps don't like donald trump so much but may be held their nose and voted for him in 2016, delivering him the state of florida back then by a very

close margin. but those sort of women, i have spoken to some, rick scott would appeal to them. they know him. he has been a governing here. he is a known entity. he is seen as someone who fly —— fights for the state of florida on a range of issues and put them on the national map. at times of tragedy like the labour shooting as all the people of florida really feel that he was someone who fought for their state. orlando shooting. whether or not you pin yourself to donald trump or not, i think the name recognition could go a long way. this is interesting on the flipside, if you spoke to many people five hours ago on both sides of the political aisle, they would say that in the governors' race andrew gillum had a much better chance of running away with that than in the senate race his democratic counterpart bill nelson. at the moment it looks like bill nelson has a better chance of the two democratic evidence. that might be that perhaps florida is not ready to elect an african—american

governor. race has been an undertone ofa governor. race has been an undertone of a lot of this campaign will stop going back to that known entity thing, bill nelson may have appealed to some republicans swing voters, because, again, he is a known entity and has served three terms in the senate. ok, rajini vaidyanathan. florida has on local issues that have been important in the course of this campaign. one is climate change. the waters are rising in florida. and floridians know it. the republican candidates have distanced themselves from donald trump osmo positions on climate change. one of them in the house districts, rick scott is another of them, trying to square the circle on the issue of rising water tides. this strange thing of red line coming up on to the beaches that has been a killer for the tourist industry down there, because it smells bad, it looks bad, that has been a huge driver. another thing linked to climate change. and governor rick scott has been known as red tide rickard during the

course of this campaign. that was a random fact —— rick. course of this campaign. that was a random fact -- rick. this will be familiar to many of our view was after the brett kava naugh confirmation. she sits on the justice committee. that is one we would expect to hold. they are calling it, ithink would expect to hold. they are calling it, i think for a would expect to hold. they are calling it, ithink for a new would expect to hold. they are calling it, i think for a new clover shoah. we talk about the present going down to florida as many times as you see will stop the fact that he had no relationship with him. bill nelson has always been a not terribly strong campaigner. i am a little surprised because scott is a strong campaigner. probably had more recognition and bill nelson even though bill nelson was a senator. run for his fourth term, i think. if andrew gillum doesn't win, that will bea andrew gillum doesn't win, that will be a blow. he was up in the polls. the progressive part of the

democratic party thought he was just great. there is something in politics called the tom bradley effect. he was a very successful mayor of los angeles, the first african—american man. he ran for governor, he was a shoo—in until he wasn't on election day. it would say they were voting for tom bradley because they wouldn't admit that they would not vote for somebody who was african—american. if andrew gillum doesn't win there is clearly a bradley effect going on here. that is the blow. andrew gillum was a hero to the progressive end of the party. do you think that could be going on in florida? it could be. it could be that allegedly gillum is under investigation. for those who have been in politics for so long there is nothing can take for granted until election night. the other thing i would say is that ron desantis has been a tireless campaigner. the president has gone their lot on his behalf. i would

think that race is part of any election... the andrew gillum thing. the allegation that the president threw at him is pretty tenuous. the pressing yes. but whether or not he accepted gifts, whether or not he accepted gifts, whether or not he accepted plane tickets, whether or not he accepted bribes, candidly, that were illegal and not permitted for him as the merel tallahassee, there are a lot of allegations that have been put forth. but certainly hurt his campaign —— mayor tallahassee. when you hear donald trump saying things like andrew gillum is not qualified for the job, that stacey abra hams gillum is not qualified for the job, that stacey abrahams is not qualified for thejob, that stacey abrahams is not qualified for the job, they know that, they know they are not up for it. he is going straight for that wea k it. he is going straight for that weak kneed racist crutch of don't bother. we've talked about this so often, the laing was the users, and often don't like it, because it is nothing more than a dog whistle, and allows from supporters to allow people to believe that that is for the president has seven. we go to west

virginia. joe manchin has just won his election did in the us senate and speaking now. never happen. never happened. this is a win for west virginia. this is truly a win for west virginia. i would like to think my family, gail, my children, we have had are, just appear. we are brought here. we have all of our spouses, they are all of our children are really. we have traced, and where is marshal? and we have all of our grandkids will stop and what want to say something special about this election. i want to thank him. and we had matty fleming. and then i had jack come and do the door

knock on the last few days. the just have the kids involved really is special. and you do now special that is. but to all of my family, i have my brothers and sisters with me as well. i have janet, janet, my sister janet. i have paul o'connell rockey, brother rockey. all of their spouses. donald trump down there in huntington on friday for a rally that caseinate added. joe manchin, very popular west virginia, as i see. and very hoarse. what is it about democrats and their voices? joe biden lost his voice the other day. penicton lozenges. it is appalling, running from an american election, as you've seen. it is utterly gruelling. we go back to our alley pickup on anthony, would you be watching the last hour, what you're watching the next hour. let's start with how things are looking since we lost the queue.” start with how things are looking since we lost the queue. i been it my eye on in particular a house race

around the denver area of colorado. michael flynn is the encumbered. is running asjason michael flynn is the encumbered. is running as jason crowe the democrat. this is another one of those seats thatis this is another one of those seats that is the path of least resistance for the democrats to take the house. it isa for the democrats to take the house. it is a suburban educated picture —— educated district. with sina weibo where they will pick up republican seats, the victories they could get knocked over in a delicate installed. but they are picking up republican seats, the victories they could get knocked over in a delicate installed. but they are pick—ups they together a slim majority at lease. we look into some others rest to come up in the next or so. but that is, i think marginally good news for the democrats. what about the midwest states, anthony. we'll start seeing the results coming in there. those are the areas that

donald trump did particularly well in in 2016. what will the democrats need to see there? well, talk about pennsylvania the last hour. there are some obvious pickup opportunities there. there are seats at ohio, in illinois to me in michigan, that they could possibly pick up. what they have to do is they have to start winning back some of those working class white voters in those areas. we are still waiting to see final results from those states, but a lot of what they need it is the low hanging fruit, the suburban district. there are a couple in texas, one of the outskirts of dallas, one on the outskirts of dallas, one on the outskirts of dallas, one on the outskirts of houston one that runs from san antonio to the border. there is also obvious targets that may be helped a be because banner rock in the senate race in texas, he is doing well and is neck and neck with ted cruz. ok. anthony zurcher, thank you very much were joining us. the other thing that we should talk about is the governors races. we

sport a lot about the house of representatives and senate. but if democrats really want to have a really big impact on the 2020 of donald trump, his chances of winning on weaning, taking some of those governors races is there to be key. we have with somebody who was a governor. you know how important is governors races are. remind our view is exactly what changes if democrats managed to take several of these tight governors races tonight. virginia is an excellent example of this which we did take in 2017. what that does is have a democrat at the table when the gerrymandering in the district is going on. several picking up a higher or even iowa, that would be the legislature they couldn't just draw these that would be the legislature they couldn'tjust draw these districts ina couldn'tjust draw these districts in a peculiar way. which is why andrew dillon, if it is a win in florida, which is 27 of the congress, and 27 districts, they

would be a rob lowe, would muhammadu buhari probably you can't fix that but you can't get much worse, because it is bad as you can get. so governors are really critical. northern force the legislature to ta ke northern force the legislature to take medicare, medicaid, to do the medicaid expansion. this is all position which republican senators whichever brain—dead. —— which had a brain dead. that is politics. a governor can go in and say fine, i will sign this bill, but you will ta ke will sign this bill, but you will take medicaid expansion. a lot of matters to the public. hold that thought, because i want to tell you about one of the candidates in your state. this could be one of the first transgender governors. indeed the first. we collected pennsylvania

speak to nick bryant there. he was just telling you this results in the russell states, particularly important to note. what is seen their pennsylvania, nick? pennsylvania, we have just had to democratic pick—ups in the house. the fifth district, which is a suburban seat here in philadelphia, the then they can do they look so she has won re—election. certainly thatis she has won re—election. certainly that is the project. we were also took at the pittsburgh seven. a guy called, lamb. this is the only race in the country were unencumbered is up in the country were unencumbered is up against unencumbered. the projection there is that, lab will win that seat in the suburbs of pittsburgh. that is another democratic pickup. so here in pennsylvania the democrats do seem to picking up the seats they need to

win back the house. it's worth pointing out that fox news is now projecting that the democrats will re nt projecting that the democrats will rent control of the house of representatives. we'll see a network thatis representatives. we'll see a network that is very close to the white house. those other traps on that front. other networks are being a bit more circumspect at the moment. fox news is projecting that the democrats will win the house and here in pennsylvania the democrats are getting bigger and so they need. or in states like florida they be disappointed by some of the results down there. but in the suburbs of these big cities in pennsylvania, pittsburgh and philadelphia, they do seem to be making big as they need. that is to be on track to regain control of the house of representatives. down in florida, they have a big or two that they will be happy with. florida's 26 district looks that it is going the democrat way. only fault is as calling it, but fox news close the

president. it would be interesting if it was that network in the together because this early. how many more are we looking for, then, nick, in pennsylvania? this is one ofa nick, in pennsylvania? this is one of a scanty that we are very interested in seeing. it is the one that i was at earlier today. again the democrats tried to get a pickup there. there is no proceed in summer there. there is no proceed in summer the big steel towns. this is the place that donald trump was so strong. the ducats are hoping for a pickup there as well. still a lot of us be counted in pennsylvania, but they have got a lot of pick—ups there are already, as they say, any sellers of philadelphia, and the sellers of philadelphia, and the sellers of philadelphia, and the sellers of pittsburgh. ok. nick brya nt sellers of pittsburgh. ok. nick bryant in pennsylvania. we will return due to the evening. we want to show you before we go to the break the tweet from lindsey graham, the senator from north carolina, close to the president, of course.

the gop remains control of the train and it will keep running. i will look at some of the comments from the greens night and he is concerned about that race in texas.” the greens night and he is concerned about that race in texas. i think it'll be very close. we talked about the amount of money that is being spent here. they raise $70 million and spent $60 million on this. there should be a reliable read texas state for ted cruz to hold. it seems to indicate to me that the notion that it to indicate to me that the notion thatitis to indicate to me that the notion that it is as close, this great in the evening, the republicans have a reason to worry. that practice lead in the evening. 70 billion is about what a british general inaction owes. “— what a british general inaction owes. —— 70 million. welcome to very big money politics. i can tell you one thing... but it was all raising small donation. mopac money, no corporate money. we will have more

results coming in, including the one in texas. we have that we hope we have florida is as the you. do stay with us. hello there. although it's staying relatively mild for the rest of this week and indeed into the weekend, it will be turning a lot more unsettled and that is because of this area of low pressure which will be very slowly moving its way eastwards across our shores, bringing in a series of weather fronts — but very slowly, because they will be bumping up against that area of high pressure over the near continent. either way, it will bring some mild air up again from the south or the south—west for the next few days. this morning is starting off on a pretty grotty note.

a lot of heavy rain around, particularly through western areas. although for northern ireland we could see some mist, fog and light winds for a cool start. elsewhere breezy, a very mild start. through the morning, it looks at the heaviest of the rain will remain in western areas, but perhaps pushing into eastern northern ireland. elsewhere we should see some sunshine. but a whole rash of pretty heavy or thundery showers pushing into southern and western areas. it will be a blustery day away from northern ireland. despite that, it is still fairly mild. temperatures in sunshine in the sheltered east ridge in the mid—teens celsius. the rain continues through the evening and then pushes away northwards. certainly a little bit drier with lighter winds moving up from the south—west. a very brief ridge of high pressure. but as we head on into thursday, we will be looking at this weather front that will bring in further wet weather, initially to that south—west corner, then push them into wales, sliding into the irish sea to north—west england, and then into southern scotland later on in the day. after that cool start,

many areas should actually have a bright day to the north—west into the south—east of this weather front, again with temperatures reaching 14 or 15 degrees in the south—east. looking to the west and the next area of low pressure, which will bring us wet and windy weather for friday. this could potentially be disruptive. there will be very slowly moving in. it looks like much of central and eastern areas, bar the odd shower, should start dry, then the rain will pop up across south—western areas in towards wales and across many western areas. pretty heavy and persistent in the south, with strong winds that could cause some disruptions. stay tuned to the forecast for friday. again it could be pretty mild, especially in the east, where we have some sunshine with 13 or 14 celsius. stays unsettled into the weekend as well with blustery showers, some sunshine, and remaining mild with south—westerly winds. welcome back to the bbc‘s coverage to these mid—term election results. they are pouring in from right across the country. we will look at the current state of the races in both the house of representatives and the us senate. in the house we have the democrats with 85. the

republicans have 100. as you can see. 280. that is the magic number you are watching for the night. it looks like everybody is still a long way off. —— 218. democrats are feeling more confident about the house of representatives than they are the senate, where they are down one. you can see they are on 38. the republicans are up one. they are on 45. things certainly starting to ta ke 45. things certainly starting to take shape in the senate. we are moving from east to west this evening as the polls close. they have closed in a number of states including iowa, montana, nevada, and utah. if you'rejustjoining us, let's introduce our panel — the republican strategist mica mosbacher is with us. as is howard dean, the former governor of vermont and former chair of the democratic national committee. and we're alsojoined by emily maitlis from the bbc‘s newsnight programme. mica, how is it looking to you so

far? i am cautiously optimistic about the house. traditionally we have lost one or both chambers in the house. if we do it would certainly be reminiscent of what happened to clinton as well as what happened to clinton as well as what happened to clinton as well as what happened to obama. it would be what you expect to happen at this stage i would normally say that winning the majority and keeping it in the congress would be as tough as putting socks on a rooster.” congress would be as tough as putting socks on a rooster. i like that phrase. you say it is typical of what goes on in house races and yes it is. we said 35 of the last 38 mid—term elections have gone against the person that is in the white house. traditionally it does not do well for president. however, when you look at those economic numbers in the job records this week, another 250,000 jobs put on,

shouldn't they be doing a lot better in the house? well, as you know, james corbett, a democratic strategist, it's the economy, stupid, a famous line. and certainly why bush senior lost his second term in1992, and it why bush senior lost his second term in 1992, and it is a reason whyjohn mccain lost, because they have a recession going on during both those times. here is donald trump with this amazing jobs report number, over 250,000 in october. the whether mr done it to does make unemployment. growth. whati mr done it to does make unemployment. growth. what i think this is if it is a referendum in this is if it is a referendum in this country on donald trump. either you are for him and his policies or against it. a little bit like nancy pelosi. donald trump is, to some degree a polarising factor.m pelosi. donald trump is, to some degree a polarising factor. it is an indication with unemployment at its lowest level since 1969, of the degree to which some people do not like donald trump, the fact that the republicans are even struggling to

night. these are some results that have come in. in the senate we have a hold for the democrats, that is bob casey has held in pennsylvania. we have a hold in wisconsin, tammy baldwin, military veteran. we have a hieron the programme, a hold in wisconsin. martin heinrich as well in the senate —— had her on. another hold for the democrats. and in utah, a hold for the republicans. no surprise there. mitt romney has taken the... someone who has had a dalliance with the trump administration. people are wondering whether he might challenge the president in 2020 if donald trump is not doing well. i would not be surprised if mitt romney did that. he now has the senate seat in utah. what we were talking about with the economy being at the top of the republican agenda or, or should have been, given those amazing numbers... to some extent it is. people are

voting on the economy at the moment. the exit poll suggest it is 39 in terms of important issues. it is surprising. immigrationjust terms of important issues. it is surprising. immigration just above it. because people don't vote if they are happy. asuna something is going well you forget about it. if you haven't got a job you are angry “ as soon as you haven't got a job you are angry —— as soon as lamichael stop if your job is there, if you are seeing your pay cheques increase, you forget about it. if you are donald trump you have to move immigration to be dull. if you are republicans didn't wa nt dull. if you are republicans didn't want to talk about immigration want to remind people it is all about healthcare. he has filled his promises on the economy. when it comes to immigration, building the wall, immigration reform, he hasn't done anything. he started with prototypes. you want to focus people on what you have done, not what you haven't done. he has separated children from their parents. that may have been a major mistake. it didn't play well with the women in this country. are very important block of the electorate. that make

women are very important. also we are now debating, in this country, are now debating, in this country, are we a are now debating, in this country, are we a sovereign nation of laws or are we a sovereign nation of laws or are we open are we a sovereign nation of laws or are we open borders? are we going to allow individuals to come in through asylu m allow individuals to come in through asylum and take advantage of this catch and release loophole or are we going to ask people to come in and wait in line and be admitted into this country on merit? ok, let us go to texas where the race is too close to texas where the race is too close to call and too early to call between the democratic candidate for the senate, that o'rourke and republican candidate ted cruz, the sitting senator down there. gary o'donoghue is down there —— bateau o'rourke. 15% of the precinct is now in. you could not call this one either way. it is pretty much neck and neck as we stand. excitement has gone up a couple of notches and

since we last spoke. they feel that a loss of the areas that are still to count they will perform very strongly in some of those areas that are already in where beto o'rourke did not do quite as well as he needed to. still early days. some interesting data coming from some of the exit polling. we are seeming to see a pretty big bump upwards in the number of hispanic voters compared to last time. several percentage points upwards. and that they seem to have been breaking more for the democrats than they did before. that will give beto o'rourke's some good news to think about. the other part of those exit polls. this could change, they are in their final that make the final date is not enforced at the number of white voters seems to have dropped a little bit. that would concern ted cruz‘s campaign. some very interesting back up to the whole argument that the demographics of taxes might be changing, it might

be becoming a more purple or trendy blue state —— texas. too early to tell for sure. some of those indications of some of those theories are being played out in the numbers. what about the fundraising we have talked about through the evening, gary, he raised an extraordinary amount of money, from small donations, from the people he campaigned alongside. is that money, some of that money, is that going to be used going forward, perhaps, to build a presidential campaign for beto o'rourke? he has been asked about that. he has been a little cagey about that. there are rules around that sort of thing. they have to be slightly careful. he has raised an astonishing amount of money. just in the past three months he raced —— raced $38 million. it is a big state. it cost a lot to run

here. it is stated 28 million people. 254 counties, all of which beto o'rourke, a democrat, says he has visited. those sorts of numbers are impressive, even so. and they far outweigh what ted cruz was able to do. ted cruz, of course, benefits from being an incumbent, obviously, but i think i also benefits from that presidential run in the primary in 2016. he built up a really, really professional and high—quality grassroots campaign, not just really professional and high—quality grassroots campaign, notjust in texas, but across the country as well. i think that has helped him as well. i think that has helped him as well this time around to motivate and get out his voters. it has an active grassroots network, is what i am trying to say. that may help into night to squeeze through, if that is what he actually does. gary o'donoghue that. who is at ted cruz‘s event, where it looks sub dude and traditional and like a political event. at the other side

is beto o'rourke's rock concert. —— sub dude. literally, this looks like they rock concert. mica mosbacher, you come from texas, you are steeped in texas, what is going on in texas? it is interesting to watch for me. beto o'rourke raced over $69 million. lot of people have raised a lot of money and not one. in texas we had 500,000 new voters registered, according to the secretary of state. and all ready we had double the vote compared to 2014. that tells me many times new voters are millennials. we do have very democratic pockets in texas outside of dallas, as well as harris county, houston. that is why we are seeing culbertson, for example, as well speed sessions —— pete

sessions, as honourable. texas is a ru by sessions, as honourable. texas is a ruby red state. it is conservative, pro gun rights, for example. it is steeped with evangelicals will stop i would be very surprised if beto o'rourke takes it. he has certainly been a very lively candidate. he has skate boarded across the state that one of his rallies. he had a video showing himself cooking bacon on the barrel of a shotgun. so he certainly isa barrel of a shotgun. so he certainly is a lively figure. ted cruz, i used to say during 2016, is not everyone's favourite drinking buddy... laughter. that is fantastically diplomatic. buddy... laughter. that is fantastically diplomaticm is hard to see a democrat winning texas. larry said it would not go blue tonight. it will eventually though. and yet there are 500 races or more tonight. and yet, i will use this monster night, beto o'rourke

has somehow become a totemic figure for the democrats that make use this phrase once denied. he is the one they really want to give their party hope and a kick into the next two years will stop i flatly pity him. the hopes of the entire party tonight feel like they are resting on his shoulders —— i somewhat pity him. people who don't live in texas who had never been to texas are saying if only i could vote in texas i would. he saying if only i could vote in texas iwould. he has saying if only i could vote in texas i would. he has become this figure for the whole election, for the party. he is a little bit of a barack obama figure. or even kennedy. there will be rock concert is down there. if he wins there will be time. we go to tennessee. because of marsha blackburn who has taken the senate seat that in tennessee. she is a close trump ally. properly not going to be a beto o'rourke type

of event. there is music. she is very conservative, very close to donald trump. you can see she is the woman in the raid, and the blonde woman. this is the kerevi foreign relations committee who has stood down. in a sense, it is a holds for the republicans —— it is the chair of. it is somebody who would have taken as for the democrats, very popular himself in tennessee. we have such a soft focus their i have no idea... i have been looking at this while we have been focusing. taylor swift did not help. looking at these pictures of marsha blackburn. i want to focus on new jersey 11. we are looking for patterns and pick—ups and of the night. a number of competitive races in newjersey this evening. this one, newjersey11, has been in republican hands since 1984. they are saying that is going democrat. nbc is an tonight it will go

democrat. quite interesting. this may be why fox news is the one up front on this. they are suggesting that the house may have gone to the democrats. let me ask you one more thing about texas, while we are here. this is the holy grail of democratic politics. at one point hillary clinton. would win texas as well, they started putting money in there, they will polling, i suspect from now on until the date when america becomes a minority white country in the middle of the 20 40s they are going to think they will ta ke texas they are going to think they will take texas and they will start putting, the democratic party will putting, the democratic party will put more and more money into texas. at some point, mica i may become purple and blue, correct? it could. traditionally we were a democratic state. even our very popular governor and now secretary, rick perry, was originally a democrat. but the kind of democratic my become is not the kind of democratic was. exactly. it will be because hispanic

start voting in huge numbers and start voting in huge numbers and start voting in huge numbers and start voting democrat. more diversified. it is also because of the wild card, the millennial population. i think the whole democratic party is redefining itself. clearly, when you see beto o'rourke as the face of the democratic party, for example, and they don't really have anyone else, if you think about it, and he is exciting and he is promising was in many older people's mines is a socialism. you know. not in the mind of millennials. particularly on the issue of healthcare. used to say to americans, a couple of election cycles a g o, americans, a couple of election cycles ago, that a candidate was proposing the idea of universal healthcare for everybody and they would have been slammed as a socialist. they would not have had the chance of getting elected. and now this mid—term election, for the first time, really, we have several candidates who are proposing exactly that. healthcare was a big topic. there is an element to this. beto

o'rourke says it is not that we are not a democratic state, it is they don't vote state. the early postal votes were bigger this time then the votes were bigger this time then the vote in texas. we can bring some good news to me to lose with cbs news predicting ted cruz has taken texas. come and take it. laughter. but this was not his might finally. we should look is done ballot. a lot of the seats will have found he held by being at the top of the ticket. he may not win texas, obviously we are going be cbs addiction covered if you look at some of the other races, the house races, they may yet benefit by having him to get people out.” think he is a done ballot. i think you see face of tomorrow that the democratic party needed. hillary is

the face of yesterday. it is not quite there yet. it is not quite there yet. but i think that he, and if you remember obama came out of nowhere... this is a story of harbour for the democrats, nowhere... this is a story of harbourfor the democrats, because the same done ballot effect could be there in florida. that is not appear to have happened. but anything goes because he was embroiled in scandal. he is apparently being investigated by the fbi. as we are looking now, it is quarter past ten on these ki rsty it is quarter past ten on these kirsty brown asian states. it is looking like the democrats are going to look up worse than when they started. i would not be surprised by that at all. the interesting thing is that we saw the heidi hate camp when she decided to go with the principles, there was almost a sense

that she could do with english and bloodshed. heidi hate has come back from —10 points and could do it again tonight. that is the equation for the most thicker deceit. they call this the buckle of the bible belt, misery are pretty solid republican senator it. definitely jump republican senator it. definitely jump camp. she straight to run a clever political campaign. the two issues that republicans will not like other shares is cautiously dead. she took herfamily planning, conception. she will never mention being afan conception. she will never mention being a fan of abortion outright, because she news has yesterday that race. ben carson celsis interests. that necessarily follow the democratic line. is there a problem for the senior democratic women that

they are seen as too liberal even though they are not, because they are women? adieu boils down to the cavenagh kapitis hearings, and the need to movement. we saw that the need to movement. we saw that the need to movement. we saw that the need to live that did not empower women. democrats as was republican. —— #metoo. but on the other hand you sort brett kava naugh —— #metoo. but on the other hand you sort brett kavanaugh where it appeared that an innocent man was smeared by a mere accusation without following due process of law. smeared by a mere accusation without following due process of lawm appeared to half the country like that, but not to the other. exactly. so that has in my opinion galvanised women voters on both sides to get out and vote. it is interesting because some women have absolutely distanced themselves from donald trump, as have other candidates. that is where donald trump has been helpful, but he's also been a hindrance, depending on where you are in the country. in the twenty20

camp at karine icher do well. rememberjeff flake was a moderate and he was an avid donald trump supporter. john mccain was independent. and this is with chris and similar. i think nobody is be happy with marsha blackburn winning in tennessee, because as a woman closer donald trump, somebody who had always been closer donald trump, this was a move not encumbered advantage, as properties you can get isa advantage, as properties you can get is a democrat in a conservative state. and she still won. we go ride over to the other side of the country, where the polls are still open for another three or four hours in california. it is only 20 past seven in the evening in california. it opposes there for us. we are going to be looking at you to bring through the final results of the

night on the california site. while i will do my best. the polls are open for another 40 minutes, closing at eight o'clock local time. i am of at eight o'clock local time. i am of a bipartisan during party right now, and the mood is kind of quite subdued, actually, on both sides. in about 40 minutes, it will be taken of the democrats. this is their main party downtown. they simply cautiously optimistic that they are going to take the house. by no means celebrating yet. they will look at those five or ten seats in the house that could turn from the providers of the democrats here mostly in orange county. further north and the state in the central valleys. it as they say, they are not in the mood to celebrate just yet. what you seen a couple of the seats on that so the country out of millennials coming in

to campaign. degree there is one in california, is in there, somebody who is just 30 taking california, is in there, somebody who isjust 30 taking on california, is in there, somebody who is just 30 taking on a police officer on the republican side. the former police officer. yes. that is, yes, former lapd officer. this is he just to the north of los angeles. this is one of the seats that one of the level democrats are looking at if they can take that seat. they believe that there will be doing very well. that is the newcomer. she ru ns very well. that is the newcomer. she runs a homeless charity at the moment against a seasoned politician, as you say, former police officer there. different characters. a millennial taking on, as they say, taking on a seasoned politician. a different attitude. this is one of the half—dozen or so seats there could well switch. as in

the millennials have had a significant impact here in california, perhaps more so if you look further south into the east. some of the coastal areas, pcs have been traditionally conservative for many years. there is a certain disillusionment with donald trump and this is a big reason why some of those republicans about is drifting towards the democrats, and they tend towards the democrats, and they tend to be the republicans. ok, peter bowes therefore is in california. thank you forjoining us. we should the governors races, because some interesting results have come in and they are looking more favourable at they are looking more favourable at the moment for the democrats than the moment for the democrats than the senate seems to be looking. it looks like gretchen widmer has won the state of michigan for the governor ‘s mansion. this could have

an effect in 2020 in the presidential campaign. if the democrats do well, what does that mean? backing we have to look at state—by—state. in states like texas, certainly the governor of texas, certainly the governor of texas individual candidates running for the house and senate as well. in other states very simple, the legislature is not necessarily that intellectual in national voting statistics. i really not as concerned about the governor is back at this point coburg as they would affect policy. having a republican governor in wisconsin, and having a republican governor in michigan, surely that help donald trump in 2016. it can't hurt him. so michigan has gone to the democratic side, thatis has gone to the democratic side, that is there to help everybody else, i imagine. conventional

wisdom, that should help the democrats. yes. the governor's houses that they took back in 2009 and ten, that really help is at the base for what came afterwards.” think the governor has played a critical role in what happens constitutionally in the state, how people vote, what legislatively... who can see and where the pollie bruce ah, what a showdown, who is allowed on the register, who is not. this we get these real conflict of interest which is the person in charge as the governor getting to decide who gets to vote next time round. and if they decide to narrow those boundaries, they keeping themselves in power and changing the feel the state. this is a huge problem. this is an issue that is of any ready. that sydney is — it is things like exact match policies, who is to vote on the ballot, whose

registrations are rejected, these are things that the governor will ultimately control. events in the states, because the most powerful individual in texas is the lieutenant governor. we bring you breaking news, because cbs news is projecting the republicans have held the senate. we have been suggesting is through because of the evening. it is now confirmed. is devious news projecting the republicans hold the senate. we the finals in a result yet because there are still some races that have become in, one of them is arizona. but it now looks is not possible for the democrats to ta ke not possible for the democrats to take control of the senate. by my calculation on these races. there is a factor here. a lot of estates, the democrats will not be unhappy. they will not be unhappy and this will help with fundraising. they're

calling for the democrats, because they felt that the high to hang camp has lost. it becomes impossible them to the democrats. we talk about the governors and drop royalists through the night. he was running to over in kansas. and a close friend of donald trump. very big supporter. he has lost. kansas has elected a democratic governor in laura kelly, which is huge. it'll be interesting to look the state—by—state to how many people voted. possibly by the donald trump actor. one thing i wa nted donald trump actor. one thing i wanted to bring up his donald trump said yesterday it in a very rare moment of self reflection that he thought that maybe he should reconsider his tone. and maybe thought that his toe should be softened. i would argue strongly

that had he done that in 2016, he might not have one, because people we re might not have one, because people were looking for somebody who is a disruptor, and would go against the system. it is interesting. it is the city council. he didn't listen to paul ryan at the weekend who want to talk about the economy. so that makes yourjob talk about the economy. so that makes your job and talk about the economy. so that makes yourjob and your committee's job very difficult. what would you say to the president when you were on the committee for his re—election put 2020 is that while your council bdm in terms of time, given tonight's results. i would probably recommend — although i doubt he changes so says that he softens his tone of it. especially when a customer 's issues that do affect women emotionally. and what it has to do with the separation of children in the water. i think that really bothered by the republican women as well. i see his passionate

side. as it would help if he shows it more. then you agree that he would only have set i regret the time it hadn't been on the same day at that the advert there that was banned from almost every network for its racist i am? that since energising again. you do with one any given the other. he said the politician, even though he is a businessman he has the best political instinct they seem. there have been a lot of nasty ads that have been a lot of nasty ads that have been a lot of nasty ads that have been on the air and then the shock value and share value in these ads, a lot of us discount this. the senior republicans that have been very close to donald trump for the last two years, they would not want to criticise president, dc

republicans they hold on a second, the president is not as useful as teflon as we thought he was currently we need to do ourselves from them? backing the ones who are distancing themselves are people like paul ryan, who is retiring, jeff flake, who is retiring. i think that those individuals realise that if they are not there to support the president bosman policies whether they agree not, are going to be vulnerable again in another two yea rs. vulnerable again in another two years. i think they may cautiously this is the cells of it. many did in their states in terms of immigration. they talked about the economy and donald trump did not go on his prospects. i think he knew that he went into this particular districts, he might have hurt those particular candidates. some of the midwest states, for example. there is lots more to come from this election special programme. we have

the results coming through the evening. polls are open on the west coast. we will cover those races as well. at the moment cbs news said the republicans have held onto the senate here. we are seeing democratic pick—ups on the governors' side, democratic pick—ups on the house, no one has called the house of representatives, it will be a close night, with key races, florida, for example, the governor and the senate race haven't been called, democrats haven't conceded either of those, there is the news happening around the world. we will have more in a moment, at first an update from mike embley. just a round—up for you, democrats are confident of taking control of the lower house of congress, the house of representatives, in the closely fought us mid—term is, they have picked up 13 seats from the republicans, but democratic hopes of taking control of the senate appear to have vanished. he isjon donnison. this is a moment of truth for donald

trump. it is congress that is up for grabs. but these elections are widely seen as a referendum on his presidency. democrats had hoped for a blue wave. so far it is perhaps more of a ripple. but with polls closed in much of the country, they are optimistic of winning back control of the house of representatives. are you ready to ta ke representatives. are you ready to take back the house for working men and women? are you ready to help more democratic candidates win? are you ready for a great, democratic victory? since early morning, long queues have been forming at polling stations. this is in pennsylvania. many are predicting a record turnout for mid—term elections. love him or hate him, it is the president who

has brought out the vote. sometimes i don't agree with some of his antics, andi i don't agree with some of his antics, and i don't agree with his text in or twittering but other than that the country is in a better place than it was two years ago. donald trump and the whole republican party needs to go. we need to be done with them. we are ready for a change. some feel the high turnout might favour the democrats, but the night is still young. this is the one thing that i'm looking at tonight as we get some of the returns coming in. at a economy is growing at 3.7%, african american employment at the lowest levels in history, the same with hispanic americans, so people look at the last two years and say not only are things going pretty well, they are going quite well for me and why would i want to change course? this has been a fiery election campaign exposing america's deep divides. in the next few hours it should become clear which way the country has turned. let's get some of the day's other news: the bbc understands that the british government has drawn up a timetable to sell a deal on the country's

departure from the european union to the public, even though no agreement has yet been reached. this would include messages of support from world leaders, and a visit by prime minister theresa may to northern ireland. it's the border across the island of ireland that remains the outstanding issue. six people have been arrested in france on suspicion of planning to carry out a violent attack on president emmanuel macron, officials say. the individuals, reported to be five men and a woman, were picked up by the french security services in brittany, north—east and south—east france. details of the suspects and the alleged plot have not yet been released. a criminal investigation is under way after 21 people, including children as young as 12, were found in a refrigerated lorry at the port of newhaven in east sussex. the group, who were hidden behind bottles of sparkling water, said they were vietnamese. a man suspected of driving the vehicle, who's believed to be from romania, has been charged with assisting unlawful entry to the uk. more news in one hour. now, back to

the mid—term elections special. welcome back to the special coverage of the us mid—term elections. if you're just joining of the us mid—term elections. if you'rejustjoining us, partner organisation cbs in america is projecting republicans have retained control of the senate. let's bring in our panel. mika is on the trump re—election campaign, and the newsnight programme joins us re—election campaign, and the newsnight programmejoins us now. as many have projected, if we assume the house will go to the democrats, how does president trump deal with them? he is going to have to reach

across the aisle, something we haven't seen since probably george bush senior, so otherwise we will be com pletely bush senior, so otherwise we will be completely gridlocked in the house and nothing will be passed. so for the good of america especially in terms of healthcare, which is the number—1 issue according to exit polls for many americans, and also immigration, which is a big factor for republicans, those systems are broken and they are going to have to come together and compromise and i don't know where that is. obviously even donald trump has pledged that he would be all for making sure those individuals with pre—existing conditions are protected, in any kind of repeal and replaced for the affordable care act, by the way, that was a false narrative that the democrats used, and it looks like they might have used it successfully. and that was because there were members of the house who

did vote against pre—existing conditions. to be fair there were a few false narratives, that the ca rava n few false narratives, that the caravan of migrants is on america's doorstep when it is one of two months away, and there might be much fewer than we thought. so the campaign has been full of some false narratives on both sides, that is the nature of politics. donald trump is capable of doing a total bait and switch and deciding he wakes up tomorrow morning and what he wants tomorrow morning and what he wants to be is the president who compromises and reaches across the aisle. he came to office in 2016 and there were discussions about how conservative donald trump is, he has changed his position for example on abortion, gun control, capable of saving on something like infrastructure, ok, iwill work saving on something like infrastructure, ok, i will work with the democrats and get something done. i agree, he is not an ideologue, we know that, there are too many different thought patterns going on at the same time for there to be one clear line of vision. but i don't think... i don't share

mika's vision that he will say let's work with the democrats. he knows his power comes from chaos, from dissent, from splitting things up, not bringing them together and one of the questions which is most interesting, if the house is one way and the senate goes another way, the house is more representative of the us population in terms of the number of people. the senate represents more of the smaller, rural, republican states, more equally, so the question is at what point you say the house actually should have more of the power to stop making —— start making the decisions. the senate, because each senate has two senators... we will hold you there. we have a five minute window with a line to nevada and we want to go there. we will speak with cbs news, our partner organisation, jamie yukka in nevada, things haven't done

well for the democrats so far, how is it looking in nevada?” well for the democrats so far, how is it looking in nevada? i can tell you i'm at the democratic headquarters in nevada, polls closed 40 minutes ago and you can see the room is empty, this was a strategy to keep as many volunteers out at the polls as possible because even though polls close, as long as people were in line at the 172 statewide precincts they will get to vote if they were in line at closing time. so it is anybody‘s guess as to how that will turn. it has been a very contentious race here. one that people across america have been watching very closely. democrat jackie rosen is the democrat here who has been out campaigning, the last couple of days she has been on a non—stop tear trying to get the youth vote, the union vote, taking on the incumbent senator dean heller. the interesting part about that senator dean heller is that

just a few years ago he said that he didn't like president donald trump's policies, he wasn't gonna go in lockstep with him, he even gave back a campaign contribution at one point, and now when it comes to the affordable care act he actually flip—flopped and originally said he wasn't gonna voter appeal the affordable care act and then he did —— vote to repeal. since then he has had president donald trump and their children come to campaign with him in the state. so we've seen more low— key in the state. so we've seen more low—key kind of shaking hands, kissing babies type of campaigning from the republican dean heller over the last couple of days on top of those big rallies with the president and really he has aligned himself with that. so here we are watching at the democratic headquarters to see what happens. what happens with jackie rosen's campaign. we know from visiting the university of nevada las vegas campus the liberal "get out the vote" group were very

popular, they had young voter turnout on campus after having a polling place open for three days in early voting. students had to leave campus today by the organisations we re campus today by the organisations were organising rides. also here in this country 3% of voters said in the last election that they didn't make it to the polls because they didn't have transportation, so here in nevada there was a push from uber and lyft to get people to the polls to make sure everyone's vote counted. after visiting a number of polling places today, voting to go very smoothly in nevada. they had two weeks of early voting. 30% of voters got their votes in either by absentee or early votes. that is in comparison to 2014 when only 20% of statewide votes were in at that point in time. and today those 172 precincts, the bigger cities here in nevada, las vegas and reno, the counties that housed those larger cities, people could vote at any of the voting centres that were opened there. so things ran very smoothly.

we are now just there. so things ran very smoothly. we are nowjust waiting to see how the results come in. and people are very curious to see even though the republicans will likely remain in control of the senate if the demens can flip this seat with jackie rosen in nevada. thank you very much. interesting. dean heller the only republican running in the state. which clinton won. polling as a very vulnerable candidate. plus one in the studio. we have the director of skd. democratic strategist. welcome. since you're here, your timing is great, because nevada — there has been talk of the california —— californation of nevada. you can go back to when harry reid ran for re—election think that was in 6—8 years ago which was supposed to be tough for him. he was able to win that. it is always a state that is

decided by one or two or three points, so it's a very close — it is always a close state, i think we will see that withjackie always a close state, i think we will see that with jackie rosen and dean heller. i expect at the end, though, that rosen will pull it out. it is one of those states as well, and we haven't talked a lot about the hispanic vote, where the hispanic vote is really important. i read a fact in the new york times, 60% of hispanics in the us haven't been contacted by at campaign and if you look at nevada it is one of the states where if you have arrived in the hispanic vote from 14 to 17% it would make all of the difference for jackie rosen. i know people who worked on the campaign and that was a big part of their campaign which was to communicate, organise, mobilise and turn out the hispanic vote in nevada. and so that doesn't

necessarily mean that's going to decide the outcome for them. but that was a huge part jackie rosen's campaign and a huge part of what the was investing in and what the democratic party was investing in. mccain two years ago, one of the salient factors repeated was he was a fluent spanish speaker who worked asa a fluent spanish speaker who worked as a missionary and it was exactly to get the latinos and the hispanic vote, people might be more religious than the traditional progressives that hillary represented, that was his usp as the running mate. the poll numbers from 2016 are a little confusing on this. some people have suggested that hispanics voted 30% of hispanics voted for president trump, other people said it's more like 18 to 20% who voted for president trump, hispanic groups haveit president trump, hispanic groups have it at the lower end of that,

but certainly there is a possibility, and george bush knew this, from your state, he knew there isa this, from your state, he knew there is a possibility for republicans not just important to get to the polls, but to vote republican. absolutely. and that has been an issue. and i would agree with you. it was on the lower end. would agree with you. it was on the lowerend. i would agree with you. it was on the lower end. i have heard between 22% and 25% for 2016. i will say that the republican party has failed in the republican party has failed in the past to reach out to hispanic voters. apart from george bush. he was the exception. exactly. because john mccain... there are many factors why he lost. one was he failed to reach out to the hispanic vote and my husband, general german of the mccain campaign at the time, was pushing for the campaign chairman and other strategists to reach out to the hispanics and they failed to do it so they are an important and often overlooked voting for. is and the biggest

minority in the united dates. demonised, don't forget about that. whenever donald trump is tried to mexicans, the people coming in, that is not great way to get the latina vote on your site. —— latinio. is not great way to get the latina vote on yoursite. —— latinio. —— latino. surprisingly, i am working ona latino. surprisingly, i am working on a race in florida or, if you look at rick scott and how his campaign has been running, it is outreach to hispanics has been predicting prescient. i generally don't give a lot of credit to republicans, but i will say that he was running advertisers to start —— advertisers from the start in spanish. —— advertise on —— advertisements. obviously they do well with cuban. at the end of the day, i don't know if they have called florida's

senator race or governor 's race yet, i think florida in particular will be one of the states that the democrats it had had —— need to take a hard look at and figure out what they needed to be better. i think they needed to be better. i think the hispanic vote will go, probably the hispanic vote will go, probably the democrats can win that, but not by the margins they needed. let's go to someone who knows a lot about the hispanic vote, the governor general of california joins us now from los angeles. mr attorney general, thank you, we have spoken many times on our programmes and it is great to have you back to night. digging up on that conversation you been listening to at hispanic vote. how much of an issue is it in those districts of california that we will be watching, where we have republican candidates in office but in districts that hillary clinton one. how much is the hispanic vote one. how much is the hispanic vote on issue that? —— and issued there? —— an issued there? it can be decisive in those

districts. the question is can we get them animated and out to vote the! you have to make this appealing and make them understand that this could be consequential could their lives because so often the impact of the politician has never read —— reached home. is a matter of convincing folks that it is in interest. if we do that, we win big. i have been hearing this from democrats for, i think now, three or four election cycles, basically ever since george w bush in 2004 and john kerry. this democrats keep saying this, we will get the hispanic vote, our party will have an immeasurable majority and it still doesn't happen. what is so difficult for the democrats about reaching out to hispanic voters? why are they failing to do it in a way that gets them to the polls? so, let's clear them to the polls? so, let's clear the decks and understand the latino vote and what we are facing. one,

nearly a third of latinos in this country and not yet eligible to vote, either because they are too young or i'd not us citizens. —— or are not. out to discount a large box and —— percentage of the latino population before you talk about eligible voters. secondly, remember that democrats have been getting 70— 75% of the vote already, a good portion, wejust 75% of the vote already, a good portion, we just have to make 75% of the vote already, a good portion, wejust have to make it 75% of the vote already, a good portion, we just have to make it 75% of the majority of those who are latino and eligible to vote, not 50% of those who can vote. that is our task, to communicate to latinos that it is in their interest to vote, they may not be wealthy but it is precious and it is their voice. while we have got you we should plug into what is going on in california. when do the polls" back in about

another 15 minutes probably? what do you expect out of those tightly fought congressional districts tonight? i think california will put its weight when it comes to getting good, talented leaders to washington, dc in the house. will have a legislator which is very blue. strong governor in gavin newson. down —— up and down california and you will see that in the crates have convinced our population of more than 40 million people that we will go forward. you do not want to backslide the way we see in washington, dc and so while california, they seem like it is sometimes going on its own, at the end of the day what california does, the rest of the nation, and in many respects, the rest of the world, will follow. tomorrow morning the focus will be on the californian announcement, who is in washington

because she was in a hairdresser this morning. why is she here and will she be the speaker of the house? nancy pilosi is being nancy pilosi. she is preparing, nancy pilosi. she is preparing, nancy pilosi prepares for everything. she is looking at an opportunity to once again be the speaker of the house, we'd majority of democrats and the house, to finally get work done and finally provide the check and balance that our founders of our nation expected out of congress when it came to the excesses of an executive that runs are mark. so i think nancy pilosi is getting ready to get work right after this election. ——,. —— amok. they give a joining us. —— thank you to an interesting number of first, of the 14 house seats, this is cnn calling this, ten of those are women. it is quite interesting. we

knew there was this record number coming, you would talk about the figure earlier, 260, 261 women standing, a record number. of their successes to night for the democrats, ten out of 14 are women. that may well be the story that we are looking at going forward, whether it is women voting for women, whether it is women standing in house races that are attracting the kind of women that did want to go for trump the kind of women that did want to go fortrump any the kind of women that did want to go for trump any more. we are nearly at the top of the hour and it is time to check in with anthony. i can't believe an hour as corn by, it feels like five minutes. what have you been watching over the last hour, how have things changed? things seem to be breaking the way we things seem to be breaking the way we thought they would as far as the house goes, the leading cracks seats go to the democrats, republicans go republican. there is one that has defied expectations, staten island in new york, the republican has won that seat several times now. it looks like he may lose to max rose,

that's a surprise, people thought he would hang in, staten island a trump friendly area of york. that is a bit ofa friendly area of york. that is a bit of a shock in the house of representatives so far. and new jersey 11 they are saying, that has beenin jersey 11 they are saying, that has been in republican hands for a long time. right, although people thought that would be spinning. this one, donovan, he is a survivor, people had a target on his back into a 16 and he managed to prevail. not a lot has been truly shocking, if that holds up, it would be one of them. thank you anthony. we will check backin thank you anthony. we will check back in with you in another hours. it is nearly 11pm on the east coast of the united states, that means it is again in the evening in california. polls are starting to ) across the country. what is your takeaway? —— close a cross. across the country. what is your takeaway? -- close a cross. good night for democrats. this will be the hour when it will be likely official that democrats win back the

house. any sense of the margin? you know, i thought we were going to get around 230, 232, know, i thought we were going to get around 230,232, in terms of the numberof around 230,232, in terms of the number of seats we would represent. i think that there were some disappointing outcomes for us in the senate in governor toure ill races, but overall democrats have had to feel good about this. we walked into this election on the senate side, this election on the senate side, this was a killing field for democrats in terms of the overall senate map. it was a terrible map for us, it is a map that, going into 2020, we will not have to deal with. we had to defend a bunch of races in red districts, trump districts. we will probably walk out there with a -1' will probably walk out there with a -1, -2. will probably walk out there with a —1, —2. quite frankly, in the house committee you are coming months ago that we were having an opportunity to win the house, i would have said

ok, to win the house, i would have said 0k, what are you smoking? to win the house, i would have said ok, what are you smoking? you will be all bit equally as happy tonight. yes, and we are looking to see if we pick upa yes, and we are looking to see if we pick up a couple of seats, which would be historical. we have not picked up an extra seat in the senate since 1962. gigabit you that donald trump will claim it really. —— you can bet. donald trump will claim it really. -- you can bet. he will ultimately lose, 23— 30 house seat. that is not insignificant. crosstalk. the one thing i learnt, and this takes us briefly back to 2016. 2016, anyone on the campaign had to learn to listen to the noise. you start off with two candidates and you let you listen to the noise. this time, the thing i have that it is not

always the noise to give proper picture. when we talk to women in very closed, suburban basis, sometimes it is what they are not saying rather than what a us sense. women keep it quiet but they have an impact! thank you very much for joining us. stay with us, much more to come, coming back at the top of the hours. hello there. although it's staying relatively mild for the rest of this week and indeed into the weekend, it will be turning a lot more unsettled and that is because of this area of low pressure which will be very slowly moving its way eastwards across our shores, bringing in a series of weather fronts — but very slowly, because they will be bumping up against that area of high pressure over the near continent. either way, it will bring some mild air up again from the south or the south—west for the next few days. this morning is starting off on a pretty grotty note.

a lot of heavy rain around, particularly through western areas. although for northern ireland we could see some mist, fog and light winds for a cool start. elsewhere breezy, a very mild start. through the morning, it looks at the heaviest of the rain will remain in western areas, but perhaps pushing into eastern northern ireland. elsewhere we should see some sunshine. but a whole rash of pretty heavy or thundery showers pushing into southern and western areas. it will be a blustery day away from northern ireland. despite that, it is still fairly mild. temperatures in sunshine in the sheltered east ridge in the mid—teens celsius. the rain continues through the evening and then pushes away northwards. certainly a little bit drier with lighter winds moving up from the south—west. a very brief ridge of high pressure. but as we head on into thursday,

we will be looking at this weather front that will bring in further wet weather, initially to that south—west corner, then push them into wales, sliding into the irish sea to north—west england, and then into southern scotland later on in the day. after that cool start, many areas should actually have a bright day to the north—west into the south—east of this weather front, again with temperatures reaching 14 or 15 degrees in the south—east. looking to the west and the next area of low pressure, which will bring us wet and windy weather for friday. this could potentially be disruptive. there will be very slowly moving in. it looks like much of central and eastern areas, bar the odd shower, should start dry, then the rain will pop up across south—western areas in towards wales and across many western areas. pretty heavy and persistent rain in the south, with strong winds that could cause some disruptions. stay tuned to the forecast for friday. again it could be pretty mild, especially in the east, where we have some sunshine with 13 or 14 celsius. stays unsettled into the weekend as well with blustery showers, some sunshine, and remaining mild with south—westerly winds. welcome back to the bbc coverage of the 2018 mid—term elections in america. results are coming in across the country. republicans have

retained control of the senate. we are going to update you on the state of play in the races. in the house of play in the races. in the house of representatives, the democrats picked up 16 seats. they are at 133. they need 218 to take control of the house. several american networks suggesting they will head in that direction. on the senate side, the republicans have kept control. they are up two at 50 seats. it has not been very good for the democrats in the senate. we still have polls closing. yes. some tight governors' races around the country as well which tend to be going better for the democrats. we will keep an eye. polls are closing in hawaii and in the west of the country including california, oregon and washington state — we will take you there through the next hour. and some breaking news, cbs news has now

projected the democrats take control of the house of representatives — those races are not in, but that is the prediction and they are joining other american networks, which would meana other american networks, which would mean a good night for the republicans in the senate, a good night for the democrats in the house of representatives, which is a chance to put a check on donald trump, for the first time after two yea rs of trump, for the first time after two years of the presidency, to turn the widespread anger of the caucus into some kind of action and they will use that advantage to stop donald trump doing some of the things he might have wanted to do — to stop him pushing ahead with the conservative agenda in the us. if you arejoining us, let's introduce the panel. ron christie, former adviser to george bush. tim gilmore, former governor of virginia and chairman of the republican national committee. and stanley joso chairman of the republican national committee. and stanleyjoso is yet editor of the hill newspaper, jim gilmore. the republicans have lost the house. that will impact the

trump presidency. explain the impact. it is not helpful that the democrats have taken the house of representatives. but the republicans held onto the senate. most importantly there was really a real desire on the part of the left in the us in the us that this become a repudiation of donald trump. it is not. there is no blue wave. there is not. there is no blue wave. there is no great repudiation. as a matter of fa ct no great repudiation. as a matter of fact this is not a bad night for donald trump. the senate is still in republican hands. the big blue rate —— wave hasn't materialised. republican hands. the big blue rate -- wave hasn't materialised. we don't know what the margin the democrats have taken in the house to be fair. if you look at the last 21 mid—term elections, that party does not control the white house, they usually pick up 30 seats on average. asa usually pick up 30 seats on average. as a matter of fact in the obama midterms he lost 63 seats in that

time. the bottom line is this is a normal mid—term election, not some kind of repudiation. the governor might be right in the white house writing the point saying it is a good night for the republicans. writing the point saying it is a good night for the republicansm was a night with the republicans on the defensive, ten in the seats donald trump won in 2016, so it was odds on that the republicans would hold the senate. losing the house, though, by whatever margin, that is what will make the headlines tomorrow. i believe it is a victory for the democrats to take the house of representatives, without any question. now we have the same issues we need to deal with. how are we issues we need to deal with. how are we going to improve the economy, how to get wages going up, how can we do something about national defence in facing the challenges with the internationally? the democrats can certainly joined internationally? the democrats can certainlyjoined the internationally? the democrats can certainly joined the team internationally? the democrats can certainlyjoined the team and help to do that. what sort of things will

donald trump not be able to push through that he might have hoped?m more that there will be a large roadblock that the voters have pulled in to block his legislative agenda generally speaking. it is more about what he can do, around infrastructure, which has been talked up as as subject on which they can have agreement, but there is no reason to work with him. the grassroots of the democratic party is fervently against donald trump. the idea that a democratic control house will be looking for common ground with the president is not feasible. do you agree there is no repudiation of donald trump, and this is what was to be respected?” disagree with the governor, we have differences, with the governor and me as differences, with the governor and measa differences, with the governor and me as a reporter, but there is an element of repudiation. this is not

as bad for donald trump wore the republicans as it might have been. the bottom line is that it looks like the democrats have made solid gains in the house. it looks like they have the ability to not merely block his legislative agenda, but to begin impeachment proceedings. crucially this is about subpoenas as much a seats, they can compel testimony, that's big problems for donald trump. explain for viewers around the world what happens now in the house of representatives, now that democrats are in control, all of the committees viewers have heard about over the last few years, what happens to them? the first thing that happens when congress is empanelled next january is the vote is for the speaker of the house. so if the democrats pick up the majority, the first vote will be the election of nancy pelosi presumptively as speaker of the house. then you get into the legislative mechanisms. it is

committee ratios, house judiciary committee, banking committee, the committee is the republicans have had for the last eight years now shift to the democrats and they do to your point? what will they do in relation to the subpoenas power to swipe some of those committee has —— power? some have defended the president. yes, looking at the alleged improprieties of the president, the financial services committee looking at the president's taxes, many committees that could look at donald trump and his administration that the republicans for several years haven't done. better news for the republicans in florida. rajini is there for us. andrew gillum, the man who hoped he'd become florida's first african—american governor, the democrat running down there, he's just been at the podium conceding the governor's race in florida, that means rhonda senderos, a close trump

ally, the next governor of florida. this is the third most populous state in the us, there are 27 congressional districts in play, so big win for them in florida —— ron desantis. absolutely, and also a ringing endorsement of the donald trump presidency because as you know ron desantis was a key ally of donald trump, he continues to be someone defending the president time after time, so donald trump came to florida on a number of occasions to campaign for ron desantis. ijust watched andrew gillum's concession speech. he cried towards the end. he was ve ry speech. he cried towards the end. he was very emotional. in parts he talked about how he would continue to be involved. he said we've got to be willing to make sure our voices are heard. he said i am not going

anywhere, we are going to fight. he said the progressive platform on wanting to increase teachers' pay for example, wanting to expand healthcare and medicaid provisions for people. but he made some subtle references to raise. one thing that stuck out for me most was when he said in his concession speech we have to keep our voices, we have to keep our seat at the table and he said if there is not a chair at the table let's bring a folding chair, that was a quote spoken by shirley chisholm you might remember in democratic history, the first african—american woman to win the democratic nomination for her party. all become a nominee, or a contender, shall i say. so he was invoking some of the party's racial past because, as you know, this race in florida, well, a lot of race came into it. there was a lot of dog

whistling from ron desantis, saying that if you voted for andrew gillum, the state would monkey up, so he was criticised for that. a lot of disappointment because hopes were resting on andrew gillum for a key victory here and he didn't get that. thank you very much, rajini. let's show you the florida senate race. 99% of precincts are in and it is still too close to call. bill nelson against rick scott. rick scott narrowly ahead. but as rajini has said, it is a split vote. some of the house races have gone for the democrats, but not the key races they were looking for, andrew gillum and the senate seat of bill nelson, maybe going to the republicans. governor gilmore, how does it work, how do we get such mixed results from one state? a lot of the house races stand on their own feet, you

saw that in virginia, it depends on the candidacies, and the demographics of any district and how they are drawn, the senate race is much broader in terms of the state speaking on behalf of a candidate, but the crown jewel for the speaking on behalf of a candidate, but the crownjewel for the dems tonight was flora. it was assumed florida would go to the democrats in the senate race and it doesn't appear to be that way. i watched one of the left—wing cable news shows tonight and they started off cocky about that race. and then they grew concerned. and then they grew desperate. and now they are talking for a recount. sol desperate. and now they are talking for a recount. so i think what is going on is some repudiation. wires that important to what happens in 2020? -- why is that important to what happens in 2020? the governor is very influential in the politics of the state, so to have that,

gillum, the governor of florida, would have been pivotal in a state that has so many electoral votes, and of course people across the world who followed the bbc understands away the system works — we understands away the system works — we americans vote by state, we have electors and electoral votes based on population. florida is an enormously populated states with many votes, a key part of the republican coalition, if it could shift to the democrats it could shift to the democrats it could shift the presidency, but now i don't think that's going to happen. what are you making of the senate so far, because there have been several honourable democrats who have lost, iam not honourable democrats who have lost, i am not seeing any vulnerable republicans who have lost, the democrats haven't managed to slip any of the seats from republican to democrat — it looks like the republicans will expand their majority in the senate. not a very good night for the democrats in the senate. just to pick up on governor's point, one thing we are almost certain to hear from the

white house is the correlation between the states in which republicans are doing well and the states that president trump visited in the final stretch. if you look at the state he visited twice in the us it is florida, indiana, missouri, three state the republicans are doing well in and they have already knocked off the incumbent democrat in clare mcneil accrued on indiana, claire mccaskill is in difficulty and they will be under a lot of stress —— claire mccaskill appears to have lost in indiana. to the democrats have the ability to lock any legislation? and having the ability, do the republicans need fewer democrats to come to their site to get to 60, the majority you need to pass bills in the senate?” think that will still be something ofan think that will still be something of an uphill climb. because the democrats have the house? exactly, and there is a flipside to what we just said about the president visiting those states, sometimes

what is important that can be illuminating, we haven't talked about the rustbelt, that hasn't been pa rt of about the rustbelt, that hasn't been part of the conversation, and it was peter —— part of the conversation, and it was peter — — pivotal part of the conversation, and it was peter —— pivotal in the election. it was comfortable for democrats in pennsylvania, wisconsin, in michigan, in ohio, so that... and picking up the governor seats. so thatis picking up the governor seats. so that is more a simple president trump's perspective. if we look from an outsider‘s point of view. a lot of people around the world... this is the most watched mid—term from people outside the us.” is the most watched mid—term from people outside the us. i am going in any history. yes, no question. and people were looking at whether this would be a repudiation of trump. people were looking at whether this would be a repudiation of trumpm doesn't look as though it is. so how doesn't look as though it is. so how do they look at it in the way they deal with trump, do they have to re—engage and get on board? deal with trump, do they have to re-engage and get on board? they

will look at what happen in the us and say this wasn't a huge repudiation that the democrats have been promising for so long, they said they would be a check on donald trump, it didn't happen tonight. yes the republicans lost the house but we the republicans lost the house but we have divided government and they will look at different capitals in different countries in europe and say america is divided and they remain so. this brand of politics, it is proving popular around the world, we have seen them in europe and recently down in brazil, and the new brazilian president pointing firmly at donald trump.” new brazilian president pointing firmly at donald trump. i think the people of the world can take heart with the united states. i have read the president's speeches on international relations going closely. while i think he wants the us people to be thought about and taken us people to be thought about and ta ken care of us people to be thought about and taken care of and we don't want to surrender sovereignty, america first doesn't mean america alone and strengthening the military, in gauging internationally will

continue and the people of the world can take heart in the fact that the us and its democracy is very vibrant — the most vibrant democracy you could imagine and that's why we are having this conversation right now. could i do in briefly to point you mentioned? there is a possibility that there will be increasing focus on foreign affairs because democrats now have the house. it is in domestic affairs that they can really correct that roadblock to resident trump. any president has more leeway in international affairs and making foreign policy, and so dislike necessarily... but they have to rubberstamp the new nafta deal? talk to congressional committees about tariffs putting on chinese goods? there is no question it will have an effect, what i am saying is that in an era of dividing government, the president has greater leeway in international affairs. you can run through a string of things that the president has said he would quite like to do and some conservatives have

suggested they would like to do. has been talk of another tax cut, more deregulation of the energy industry, some have talked about rolling back some have talked about rolling back some of america's social safety net, rolling back social security, any care, all of those things will now not happened. —— medicare. care, all of those things will now not happened. -- medicare. there is a possibility the president could negotiates with the middle—class to get tax cut i also believe infrastructure progress is possible working with with republicans and democrats, but the rest of the trump agenda as it relates to deregulation, energy, those are off the table. i have my phone set to donald trump's tweets, most evenings i cannot get sleep. he hasjust weakened and here is what he said: so, as brit did... what ever pretty much the result was going to be we would probably have this anyway. this could have been very bad

tonight. it is not bad. let's go to california again, we will cross now to democratic congressman brad sherman in california with some reaction from there. you have now heard, congressmen, that york party is about to take control of the house of representatives, putting you in the majority. what does that mean you can do without power for the next two years? —— with that power. first of all it means that no motions passed on as the democrats vote for it. secondly, we can try to investigate and is a control —— act asa investigate and is a control —— act as a control on trump and his administration. those are the big things that the house of representatives can do, even with a republican senate. congressmen, we have just been talking about the

committees and the power that the committees and the power that the committees will have, 13 committees in the house that will now be under democratic control. you to be a little bit careful in how you deal with the subpoenas and investigations that democrats are promising? well, one thing the republicans did is they changed the rules so that the chairman of the committee usually doesn't need to go to the membership of the committee, or go to the minority party, and sick consent to issue a kit —— issue a subpoenas. the chairman themselves can do that. that is a change the republicans have made that i think will rue. i expect that we will issue subpoenas, at the same time we have to be at least putting forward a very positive agenda for the country is that people think we are just there —— the people think we arejust just there —— the people think we are just there to subpoenas and investigate and we don't have a plan if we had control of a democratic government, they will think we are

not interested in their lives. we have got to be talking about reducing drug prices, pharmaceutical prices. we have to talk about controlling the big banks. we have to be talking about what we can do to be talking about what we can do to improve healthca re, to be talking about what we can do to improve healthcare, not to dismantle it, as the republicans are trying to do. if we do that, if we have a positive agenda, then people will also expect us to act as a check on trump. but we are notjust there to investigate. congressmen, are you prepared to work with the president if he comes to democrats and says, for example, let's do and infrastructure built together, would you be happy to work with resident trump? absolutely. —— resident trump. when he comes forward with policies that are good for the country, the democrats are there and we will help him. —— president trump. some of these trade issues, it has been democrats that are sceptical of

his international trade agreements and very focused on trying to do something with the trade deficit that our country has. if he could be a little bit more reasonable in how he tries to address that problem, he might have democratic support there as well. brad sherman, congressmen from california, and graduations on taking the majority in the house of representatives. let the talk about the first, we have the first openly 93v the first, we have the first openly gay governor has been elected to the state house in colorado, and the first muslim women —— woman has been elected to congress. you and i interviewed her a little while ago. the house of representative ‘s will be more diverse after tonight. the house of representative ‘s will be more diverse after tonightm is. and i think that is a broad demographic change that is happening in the united states and one that shows how they are changing. not

long i was talking —— watching ronald reagan's inauguration and they said he was a dull divorcee into the country. that it shows how far it has come, greater diversity. a lot of these are on the democratic side, does the republican party have to get up to speed with this government? i will say this. to get up to speed with this government? iwill say this. my thinking has always been that the republican party needs to be broad and diverse, i have always done that, idid and diverse, i have always done that, i did that as governor and rick attorney general and i still believe in that. i think the republicans can and will do that. i was ve ry republicans can and will do that. i was very heartened by the comments from the congress and from california. the democrats, ithink, have not done quite as well this year that they expected to do with this mythical blue wave they were going to have. they encouraged people to attack their opponents in book stores and restaurants, they attacked brett kavanaugh viciously, which i think they are probably now

sorry they did. they have two offer ata sorry they did. they have two offer at a constructive, forward way of thinking about things and i think they would be foreign. your point is correct. i believe the republican party ought to be broad and diverse, it ought to reach into all of these communities, in particular the hispanic community, who is full of people who are entrepreneurs and business people looking to a brighter future. how does the republican party do that, which is the 2012 playbook on that was the autopsy of the republican party when collea g u es autopsy of the republican party when colleagues of your throat up a list and said these are the things we need to do and basically said you need to do and basically said you need to do what you said, reach out to hispanics, african americans and women. how do they do that with donald trump and his rhetoric at the top of the ticket, if he comes out of this thinking i have had a great success tonight, i will carry on as i have done for the last few weeks. one of the things i have repeatedly said is the republicans need to stop

treating black people like white people and treating people of colour like people of colour. totalled about prison reform and justice reform, talk about the issues that americans care about. strong national defence, strong economy, strong job market. if you do that, starting to treat them as individual citizens, that is the way to do it. we have had a terrible track record of recruiting people of colour to join republican ranks. let's go back to florida because the new governor is speaking. people company and say sirwe are is speaking. people company and say sir we are behind you, we understand you. i appreciate the job you do to keep floridians safe and we will stand by you 100%. as a veteran, floridians can count on me to stand up floridians can count on me to stand upfor floridians can count on me to stand up for active—duty military missions in the state of florida and for our great koreans who have done so much to help... floridians can also count

on me toa to help... floridians can also count on me to a point solid constitutionalist to our state supreme court and other courts. so that we can end itjudicial activism and restore the constitutional order. we have got an awful lot to do. we have a lot of opportunities andi do. we have a lot of opportunities and i believe you have to turn the page on a political campaign and you have got to be willing to work with floridians from all walks of life. i don't care if you're against me in the campaign, i want to work with you to advance our common priorities. if we think that way, i don't think there will be limits to the amount of good we can do. so it is an honour to be here tonight as the governor elect to the state of florida, we are looking forward to getting going very, very quickly as wejuggle two kids getting going very, very quickly as we juggle two kids and a too... just there, the new governor of florida. that is one for donald trump because

he chose him, he wanted that men and campaignfor him. he chose him, he wanted that men and campaign for him. and he got it. this is somebody who has been arm start with all trump, locked at the hip with him and this is important, heading into 2020, heading into redistricting and the census, this isa redistricting and the census, this is a big win for republicans. redistricting and the census, this is a big win for republicansm redistricting and the census, this is a big win for republicans. it was a very tight race, but a welcome win for republicans, an important one heading into the 2020 election campaign. there is a tweet that has come up from a senior republican senator who is pointing out, from senatorjohn korn on. —— cornyn. of course the one who voted for brett kava naugh has of course the one who voted for brett kavanaugh has kept busy. is it too simple to draw that correlation?

if others, if they had voted for kavanagh, if others, if they had voted for kava nagh, the if others, if they had voted for kavanagh, the democrats would be in a different position tonight? difficult to completely prove that point, but i do think that those of us in the media mostly used the fact that the brett kavanaugh controversy did rebound to public and —— republican advantage. i was at a future rallies in the end of the campaign and! future rallies in the end of the campaign and i found more interesting to watch the crowd to see what is resonating with people at the sections in which he lambasted the democrats for their conduct during the brett kavanaugh hearings that with an absolutely fe rve ntly hearings that with an absolutely fervently positive reaction from that base. i think that was important in energising republican vote rs important in energising republican voters who may not have shown up for the midterms, who may have some perspective —— dissatisfaction, but came forward. is it also, we heard about the congressmen from california what they want to do with the house, but they are not entirely

sure what the national policy of the democratic party is. right. that is afair point. democratic party is. right. that is a fair point. it is the policy of the democratic party, get dropped out, or is it something to do with economic policy, economic fairness, changing immigration policy. what is the central organising principle for the central organising principle for the democratic party? you could have argued, for example, when then senator obama ran for the first time it was healthcare and stop the wars. that is how he ran. i don't think there is a bumper sticker slogan other then stopped trump. or resist. there is no democratic equivalent to make america great again, which means different things to different people, but has the virtue of being very simple. florida, this is so interesting, the senate race in florida between bill nelson and scott on the republican side, 100% of the precincts have reported, but

it is too close to call it that is within margin of error. what is happening in florida? we have to talk about florida like this every single election? what is happening in florida again? how many times have i said that an election programmes. x lane. you got to get to the big stage. —— explained. programmes. x lane. you got to get to the big stage. -- explained. the big states have the most electoral vote is because they are the biggest population. you have to focus on swing major states. does this mean recou nts swing major states. does this mean recounts need to take place in certain districts? ifi recounts need to take place in certain districts? if i was losing i would certainly ask for a recount andi would certainly ask for a recount and i expect that would happen and thatis and i expect that would happen and that is all right. it depends on the state. depends on the percentage of the vote, would imagine this close, it would automatically trigger a recount. so we may not know it tonight. no. i would like recount. so we may not know it tonight. no. iwould like to recount. so we may not know it tonight. no. i would like to set up into your viewership is worldwide,

they are really viewing the most vibrant democracy that you can possibly imagine. there are countries around the world, citizens looking at the bbc tonight and wishing that they have this kind of democracy at work. and america remainsa democracy at work. and america remains a beacon of democracy in the world and i am actually rather proud of what we are doing, even if the opposition party did win the lower house. i would be interested to see on that point what the turnout was because that is a critical component ofa because that is a critical component of a vibrant democracy. will have more ina of a vibrant democracy. will have more in a few moments with more results from this us election special. first, let's get news from around the world from other countries from mike emily in london. thank you very much. the democrats are projected to win the lower house of congress, the house of representatives, from the republicans in the us mid—term elections. that would have a major impact on anything president trump hopes to do in his next two years in office. but his republican party has retained control of the upper house, the senate. here'sjon donnison with the latest. this is a moment of truth for donald trump.

it's congress that's up for grabs, but these elections are widely seen as a referendum on his presidency. democrats had hoped for a blue wave. so far it's perhaps more of a ripple. but with polls closed in much of the country, they're optimistic of winning back control of the house of representatives. are you ready to take back the house for working men and women? are you ready to help more democratic candidates win? are you ready for a great democratic victory? in the senate it is republicans who have a victory, keeping their majority. among those celebrating, supporters of senator ted cruz who

held his seat in texas. and in utah former republican presidential candidate mitt romney is back with a senate seat. it is also a call for action, action on items that are long past due. action to finally get us on the path to a balanced budget, action to reform our immigration system so that legal immigration welcomes people and in legal immigration is ended. an action to push back against the heavy hand of the federal government, because utah knows best what is right for utah. turnout is reported to have been high. love him or hate him, president trump seems to have brought out the vote. this has been a fiery election campaign, exposing america's deep divides. a democratic house and a republican senate will likely see those divisions only intensify. let's get some of

the day's other news: the bbc understands that the british government has drawn up a timetable to sell a deal on the country's departure from the european union to the public, even though no agreement has yet been reached. this would include messages of support from world leaders, and a visit by prime minister theresa may to northern ireland. it's the border across the island of ireland that remains the outstanding issue. six people have been arrested in france on suspicion of planning to carry out a violent attack on president emmanuel macron, officials say. the individuals, reported to be five men and a woman, were picked up by the french security services in brittany, north—east and south—east france. details of the suspects and the alleged plot have not yet been released. the girl scouts of the united states of america is suing the boy scouts of america for dropping boy from the organisation's name. the boy scouts announced in may that they were renaming their programme scouts bsa as they prepare to allow girls tojoin. however, the girl scout group says the change could erode their brand. more news in about an hour. now,

back to the mid—term election special with katy. welcome back to this bbc election special 2018, the midterms here, we have results through the night, and the update is the republicans have held the senate here in the united states and the democrats have held the house, what you are seeing on the house, what you are seeing on the board does not yet reflect the final numbers. let's start with the senate, bottom upwards, the republicans have 50, gaining two seat so far, maybe more by the end of the night, the democrats have 42, the house is the one we are waiting for the final numbers, although it has been called by american tv networks, the republicans have 155,

the democrats have 153, the republicans have lost 19. some interesting results to bring you, the newjersey seventh district tombola —— tom molinowski has won the seat, ted cochrane has sat down in mississippi, and the governor is ina run—off in mississippi, and the governor is in a run—off later this month with a member who served under bill clinton. the agriculture minister. you can expect donald trump to be fighting for that one. what we are hearing is that the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has spoken with president trump tonight and thank him for his help. they had a great conversation. i bet he did. let's go back to nick bryant in pennsylvania, he is still keeping the burrow them for us in the suburbs of philadelphia. he is the last man standing. laughter as a

student of american politics and history, i want you... we are having a back and forth off their, just about how much of a repudiation this is to donald trump, what is your reading of the national results so far? —— back and forth off air. a divided country has produced a divided result. the house has been retained by the democrat —— regained by the democrats for the first time in eight years. and we are seeing the reinforcement, a realignment in american politics, which has been going on for a number of years, where democratic strength is in the cities and suburbs and donald trump's america lies beyond. a divided country has produced a divided result and maybe those divisions are intensifying even further. can we pick up any clues as

to where... as katy has said, the race for the white house begins tomorrow, the 2020 race will begin. so can we take any clues from what we have seen in the rustbelt and the midwest tonight? it is interesting what we have seen in pennsylvania. a lot of the democratic seats in the suburbs that they needed to flip they did flip, allentown for instance, the democrats have flipped that, the old steel belt town that donald trump did well in two years ago which has gone to the democrats. these results are so uneven, which makes extrapolation quite difficult. for instance, the republicans gained in pittsburgh's, —— pittsburgh and bucs county, so people have projected a lot of different meaning. what is significant is how

many moderate democrats have done well, people like mikey cheryl, a democrat in newjersey, former navy helicopter pilot, the lesson might be the democrats have to field moderate candidates in the presidential election, there are a lot of millennial is in this part tonight who were cheering those on the left of the party so it is difficult. i think they will be worried about florida as well. that looks like it is becoming more of a republican state at the moment. that makes life difficult when you're trying to assemble an electoral couege trying to assemble an electoral college victory. you don't need florida to win the presidency but it certainly helps. nick bryant, so interesting. on the other side of the screen you have nancy pelosi, she has a victory rally here in washington after regaining the house. let's listen in. thanks to you, tomorrow will be a new day in america. cheering and applause.

remember this feeling, and know the power to win, remember this feeling, and know the powerto win, and remember this feeling, and know the power to win, and almost all the congratulations to those dynamic and incredible candidates who have taken back the house for the american people, let us salute all of our candidates. all of our candidates! cheering and applause. todayis cheering and applause. today is more about democrats and republicans, it is about restoring the constitution's checks and balances to the trump administration. it is about stopping the gop and mitch mcconnell's assault on medicare, medicaid, the afforda ble assault on medicare, medicaid, the affordable care act and the healthcare of 130 million americans living with pre—existing medical conditions. let's hear for pre—existing medical conditions. cheering and applause. it is about ending wealthy special

interest free rein over washington. but more than anything, it is about what the new democratic majority will mean in the lives of hard—working americans. will mean in the lives of hard-working americans. applause. that's what it's about. democrats pledge a congress that works for the people — for the people — lowering the cost of healthcare, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, strong economic growth, rebuilding infrastructure in america, clean up corruption to nate washington work for all americans. cheering and applause. —— to make washington work for all americans. we will take strong action to legislate to negotiate down the price of prescription drugs thatis down the price of prescription drugs that is burdening seniors and american families around america, we will deliver a change in america's infrastructure to rebuild roads,

bridges, schools, water systems, broadband networks, schools and housing and beyond, we will drain the swamp of dark interest money. cheering and applause. when we do, americans have greater confidence in everything their congress works on, from healthcare to taxes, guns, clean air and water for our children, when they know that the people's interest will prevail, not the dark, special interest. cheering and applause. in stark contrast to the gop congress the democratic congress will be led with transparency and openness. applause. so the public can see what's happening and how it affects them and that they can weigh in with the members of congress and with the president of the united states. we will have accountability and we will strive for bipartisanship. fairness on all sides, we will have a responsibility

to find common ground where we can, stand our ground where we can't, but we stand our ground where we can't, but we must try. we have a bipartisan marketplace of ideas that makes our democracy strong. democratic congress will work for solutions that bring us together because we have all had enough of division. cheering and applause. the american people want peace, they wa nt the american people want peace, they want results, they want us to work for a positive result for their lives. our founders believed in principle that then you must guide our nation, first in the declaration they promised life, and the pursuit of happiness, but they gave us guidance, the founders could never have imagined how vast the country would become, how many we would be, how different we would be from each other, but they knew we had to be

one, unity, unity for our country. today the american people have spoken to restore that vision with this new democratic majority. we will honour the vision of our founders for a country, having legitimate debate, but remembering that we are one country. we will honour the sacrifices of men and women in uniform and their families who have made us the land of the free and the home of the brave. cheering and applause. to build a better future worthy of their sacrifice. and we must honour and respect the aspirations of our children. elections are about the future and what we do for our children's future. so thank you all for making the future better for all of america's children. god bless

you! god bless america! thank you all very much. so nancy pelosi, former speaker of the house, many expected to become the speaker again, witha expected to become the speaker again, with a laserlike focus on the republican side on nancy pelosi, donald trump mentioned it at every rally he has been to in the last week. she is a divisive character. she delivered for the democrats in the way that they couldn't do in the senate. she hasjust thrown her coat over the speakership with that pc note and not in washington. it is good to have you with us, shannon. what do you make of what you have seen tonight. i will tell you what, resolve an argument for me, we have debated whether this is a repudiation of donald trump or not. as your correspondent was saying earlier, it continues to show we are

a divided country. yes, the democrats had some good wins, and the republicans also did. the white house and donald trump will be pleased with the republicans in the senate. they will write off the losses in the house as the typical thing that happens when the party is in control in the mid—term elections. there were some big u psets elections. there were some big upsets for the republicans in the house as well. and as well as in governors' races. when you get to the end of the day, despite the turmoil and the controversy there has been over the last two years, we really end as a pretty divided country, and red states are still pretty much red and blue states are blue and you will have pockets here and there that you will see the ships, in the suburbs, in the western states, with a large hispanic population, immigration is a big issue, you will start to see some shifts, but it is still the red

and blue america that we saw almost two years ago to the day. the president, we saw his tweet earlier, already calling this a tremendous night and celebrating victory. you cover the white house and know how he responds to things, will there be an internal debate in the white house and any handwringing about the house loss? this has pretty much corn as everyone in the white house expected at the go. they have given up hope on republicans maintaining control of the house months ago. there was a little bit of glamour after they saw a lot of enthusiasm amongst republicans bubble up in the last few weeks around immigration and after this controversy around the supreme court nomination. but there was definitely a sense of resigning at the democrats would take control of the house and that had been there for months. they will be very pleased with the senate and i think that is going to be a feather in the president ‘s cap because the

candidates that he campaigned the ha rd est candidates that he campaigned the hardest fought in the senate in places like indiana, misery, florida, that is where they had victories for republicans. —— missouri. i think the president will use this to say that he is the republican party and any thought that republic —— moderate republicans were not go to come out and vote for democrats on a statewide level, has been proven not true. that the president can still turn out vote is for republican candidates. when you get to the house and break it down into smaller districts, suburban areas or modern areas, that is where you saw the president damage candidates in districts that have a republican house member but one fall hillary clinton, those republicans are no longer here. a lot of losses in that area. ona longer here. a lot of losses in that area. on a big chatarea, the president still is able to carry weight, to get republicans over the finish line in tight races. it is

still two years out, but how does to was not impact the president chances of winning a second term in the white house. it does show that the republicans are solidly behind him. it shows a shift in the democratic party. it is not necessarily the blue wave that democrat is hoped, but we are seeing a lot of women did, what of candidates who are minorities getting elected. and some democratic candidates who have more progressive views are getting elected. while it is not a sea change overnight, i think it is a move in the direction of the democratic party being more represented way women, minorities, further to the left, not so much in the centre. when it comes to the democrats tried to figure out who their candidates will be in 2020, i think we are starting to get a sense of what they can do is go to look like. it might not necessarily look

like. it might not necessarily look like the older, white establishment may all. it may be a female, an african american, it may be someone with further to the left, west centric views from the democratic party. —— less centric. centric views from the democratic party. -- less centric. shannon, thank you very much for that. let's go to newjersey, where there has been a race that has been declared, thatis been a race that has been declared, that is new jersey's been a race that has been declared, that is newjersey‘s seventh district, which pitted leonid lantz against tom malinowski, what does that tell us? does it tell us more about the party or the district?” think it tell us a little bit about resident trump in this state. we will see, still two more competitive

races. but certainly, leonard lance has tried to say it throughout this race that he is bipartisan, an independent. but thatjust race that he is bipartisan, an independent. but that just wouldn't work. we saw that newjersey voters we re work. we saw that newjersey voters were angry that he didn't take on resident trump more during his time in office. —— president from. so now leonard lance has lost the seat to tom malinowski, who served in the obama administration. i think is really interesting that he didn't necessarily support resident trump's policies, at tom malinowski during this race successfully tried to argue that democrats were trying to save the nation, in a way, saying that the politics were getting so did visit, the rhetoric so do visit, that that really helped him against leonard lance. iwant that that really helped him against leonard lance. i want to add that there has been another race called in newjersey in the 11th stripped and this had a lot of energy around it and now sees newjersey having more than one woman representative.

that, of course is mikie sherrill who won that seat, raising more than any other newjersey congressional candidate in history. she was a moderate who really got people out to vote, particularly women, who led this grassroots effort to sweep her into success here. it is time you went to bed seeking get up tomorrow morning to carry on reporting. thank you very much for that reporting from newjersey. you very much for that reporting from new jersey. it you very much for that reporting from newjersey. it is interesting because the candidate there voted against donald trump's tax cuts, which would have made him immensely unpopular. that seat has been held since 1980, a big win for the democrats. let's look at missuori, they have lost, but it is a sizeable

margin. i wonder if we will have questions about the polls on the senate side, montana looked close, missuori looked close, they have both born to republicans, as we went into arizona, that was neck and neck, we don't know where that will go but master sallie seems to be having a good run of it. are we going to have questions about some of these senate race polls? we will and we should. these pollsters are in the business of making money, of forecasting how they believe a race will go. my question is are they talking to registered voters or likely voters? likely voters are the ones more likely than not to go to the polls and vote. the methodologies adopted for some of these polls will come into sharp contrast as to whether they gave a very good snapchat at what the race looks like. —— snap shot. very good snapchat at what the race looks like. -- snap shot. there are

two things to say about that, maybe donald trump did the business and shifted some of those polls, particularly in missuori and florida. other thing to say is that we don't know an awful lot about this group that came out for donald trump in 2016, who they are, where they are and which way they vote. what group that the? —— group would that be. there seems to be a group of trouble voters that the pollsters cannot find and they are not reflected. there are a lot of people who do not enter polls. i don't. —— answer. i who do not enter polls. i don't. —— answer. lam who do not enter polls. i don't. —— answer. i am a bit more ambivalent about polling then the three of you are. experience is that if you have eight different polls and yet the same result that is probably what you are going to see. actually, by your definition, both in indiana and missuori, the polls were out because they were tighter than the actual result and that is the average...”

do think anybody should think that the poll is an actual water glass measure of what is to happen in the election. is more indication of about where you are in the politics and what you have to do to try to influence that change when the actual election comes about. to christian's point, it is absolutely true that there are a lot of people that are angry in the united states about the dominant culture of the left in this country. let's be real here. the left wing in this country has tried to dominate and define the american culture as based on race and culture, lot of anger that creates a reaction. that will be shown up now at the polls in very large measure. does it create a reaction that divides men and women? when you look at the polling in our programme, you have college—educated white woman going one way and non— couege white woman going one way and non— college educated white men going com pletely college educated white men going completely the other way. most of the history shows that white women,

for example, primarily vote republican. barbara who lost an eye was woman, master mix hourly in arizona, was a woman. in modern culture with into place everything on genderand culture with into place everything on gender and race and i think we'll would be a healthier democracy if we dealt with the issues. —— martha mcsally. had he get people working, increase wages, make people safer through national security? these are theissues through national security? these are the issues which i think crosscut races and genders and should, in my opinion. marsha blackman, another one. so when we look tonight at the electoral map, what you see? icy republicans doing well in republican state. i see democrats holding on in democratic state. what i find most surprising as i said at the beginning of the night, is what is go to happen in the suburbs of our major cities? what we have seen tonight is the cracks have done really well at gaining the house of

representatives by gaining the seat. thank you both for being with us. we will have more results coming up, still california and other results and we will have more of a sense of how much of a march on the democrats have got in the house of representatives and where it ends up in terms of majority for republicans. stay with us, much more to come at the top of the hour. hello there. although it's staying relatively mild for the rest of this week and indeed into the weekend, it will be turning a lot more unsettled and that is because of this area of low pressure which will be very slowly moving its way eastwards across our shores, bringing in a series of weather fronts — but very slowly, because they will be bumping up against that area of high pressure over the near continent. either way, it will bring some mild air up again from the south or the south—west for the next few days. this morning is starting off on a pretty grotty note. a lot of heavy rain around, particularly through western areas. although for northern ireland

we could see some mist, fog and light winds for a cool start. elsewhere breezy, a very mild start. through the morning, it looks at the heaviest of the rain will remain in western areas, but perhaps pushing into eastern northern ireland. elsewhere we should see some sunshine. but a whole rash of pretty heavy or thundery showers pushing into southern and western areas. it will be a blustery day away from northern ireland. despite that, it is still fairly mild. temperatures in sunshine in the sheltered east ridge in the mid—teens celsius. the rain continues through the evening and then pushes away northwards. certainly a little bit drier with lighter winds moving up from the south—west. a very brief ridge of high pressure. but as we head on into thursday, we will be looking at this weather front that will bring in further wet weather, initially to that south—west corner, then push them into wales, sliding into the irish sea to north—west england, and then into southern scotland later on in the day. after that cool start, many areas should actually have a bright day to the north—west into the south—east of this weather front, again with temperatures reaching 14 or 15 degrees in the south—east. looking to the west and the next

area of low pressure, which will bring us wet and windy weather for friday. this could potentially be disruptive. there will be very slowly moving in. it looks like much of central and eastern areas, bar the odd shower, should start dry, then the rain will pop up across south—western areas in towards wales and across many western areas. pretty heavy and persistent rain in the south, with strong winds that could cause some disruptions. stay tuned to the forecast for friday. again it could be pretty mild, especially in the east, where we have some sunshine with 13 or 14 celsius. stays unsettled into the weekend as well with blustery showers, some sunshine, and remaining mild with south—westerly winds. welcome back to the bbc‘s coverage of the 2018 american mid—term elections. results have been coming in from right across the country and the overall picture has become clear. the republicans have retained

control of the us senate. our partner organisation cbs news has projected that the democrats have gained control of the house of representatives. let us look at the current state of the race, as it looks now. you see that the senate, we will start there, is in the hands of the republicans and, in fact, they have increased their majority plus three this evening in the senate. but look at that at the top, the house. now in the hands of the democrats. there are still a number of seats to come in. we are going from east to west. it is 218 four majority. several of the networks calling the house for the democrats. that will put a check on the legislative agenda for the president. the reason only 169 have been called and the networks are calling for the democrats is because there are substantial numbers that are safe democratic races. they know that the democrats will windows and that the democrats will windows and that will push them over the magical

218 seats. these are the senate races that we are still waiting for. we can pull those up. we have arizona, florida, that one very close. 100% of the precinct have reported in florida and they still don't have a result. we are back in florida, florida, florida country. for those of us who don't follow politics. there is one that donald trump is watching closely, montana. jon tester is the chair of the vetera ns' affairs committee. jon tester is the chair of the veterans' affairs committee. he is the ranking member on that committee in the senate. he opposed the nominee for the veterans' affairs secretary. doctor ronniejackson that the president had put forward and he has forgiven him there. 27% of the votes in. the democrat who is truly from 1—timer. of the votes in. the democrat who is truly from 1-timer. seven fingers. —— montana. truly from 1-timer. seven fingers. -- montana. a big and burly guy. let

us introduce you to a final panel for the last hour of the election special. we have ron christie who have stuck with us the whole time. former advisor to george w bush. we now have peter pan, democratic strategist. thank you forjoining the programme. we have had a couple of republicans for the last hour of the programme. we are very glad that you arejoining us. they were the programme. we are very glad that you are joining us. they were saying that this was not a repudiation of donald trump. what say you? not as big a repudiation as i would have liked. when you have these elections, the average over the past 100 years is 30 seats in the house of four sits in the senate, we would have liked to have gotten those four senate seats. the electoral map was pretty well set. the couple discuss,

26 seats we had to defend —— as you have all discussed. very tough races. indiana was called, north da kota wa s races. indiana was called, north dakota was always a very hard race. and missouri two. i think the important thing for democrats is to have the house, to have a check, to have the house, to have a check, to have an alternative voice, to have a place for people to go on the democratic side. do we know what the margin is yet in the house? do we know how many seats the democrats have ta ken? know how many seats the democrats have taken? not yet. if you look at california. this is the big kahuna all the way. there are 45 seats that the democrats could pick up in addition. some of the projections i have seen are in that 30—40 seat category. in other words, this is not going to squeak by. when you see

some of the ones in the midwest, actually, a couple in kansas, we even see utah with two races in play, iowa, some of those places where we did not expect it, and three in virginia, which is at the top. and a democratic governor in kansas as well. we are just showing you on your screen, this is beto o'rourke at his zero victory rally. i guess this is his concession speech. he has come onstage with the whole rock band scenario. very different to how beto o'rourke was hoping this would end. i wanted to speak to you about beto o'rourke, do you see this as a defeat or do you see this as a man you can see the democratic party being rebuilt around? i don't think it will go quietly into the good night. i think it will be around. how it works out in terms of elected office, i don't know. this was a guy who not only electrified liberal and progressive

democrats, but he had a lot of folks around the country talking about him asa around the country talking about him as a possible presidential candidate, if he had won best rates. star quality in veloso state. -- lodestar state. he starts off as a favourite among the democrats. he raised $70 million. he got a lot of money across the country for a race in texas which democrats traditionally would not have had a chance at. you could not have more ofa chance at. you could not have more of a difference. joe biden, he would be as old taking over as a president as ronald reagan was when he finished, or this guy when he xscape that skateboards. i am not sure he even owns a tie. he is the ideal millennial candidate. what can we read from the house races that have gone from the democrats and those that did not. the democrats seem to have done better with moderate centrist candidates than they have

more progressive candidates. what you read about the democrats because choices for 2020? let us check to virginia. some of the races that we re virginia. some of the races that were lost there. you found a lot of college—educated women voting for democrats. you saw younger people voting for democrats will stop as i look to 2020 and what the democrats are going to do and look for any nominee is who can energise a loss of the traditional democratic base. —— lot of. i will let peter talk about the democrats but to get the young people, people of colour, and women energise for democrats. young people, people of colour, and women energise for democratsm young people, people of colour, and women energise for democrats. in the texas 32nd there is a democratic gain, colleen alred. we were talking about the down ballot. to get someone like beto o'rourke he gives money to the other candidates, you get them to go out and vote. in that

race, the one who did the incredible video of the doors, it was done by one of my colleagues who worked for me. i thought it was brilliant. she was nowhere. a woman veteran. people thought she would not win. she went in behind in the polls. she writes a harley. —— in behind in the polls. she writes a harley. — — writes. in behind in the polls. she writes a harley. -- writes. this is texas. this is going to be the different face of the congress. the recruiting of some of these candidates who were in the military and two had credibility had reason to run, females, by and large a couple of them lost, but by and large they did pretty well stop what i will hold to their pretty for a second. peter, we say to you at the beginning of the night, would you be the person we

came to to decide what would happen in the house of the senate. you are not the person who will decide, i think it will be your state, california, that will give us the final word on the margin for the democrats. i think you are writes, katty. it has already been decided and it is relatively early days in terms of getting the results in terms of getting the results in terms of getting the results in terms of the california poll. i don't know if there are any significant house easier. there are about half a dozen that the democrats have high hopes of taking stock still in the early stages of counting those. as you can see around me, this is now a democratic party. it is a party in will swing. some very happy faces a round here it in the knowledge that the democrats have taken control of the house. one result, one projection that i can tell you about is that diane feinstein iron, the veteran democratic senator is projected to win her seat and return for a sixth

term. this is interesting. she was opposing another democrat. an unusual situation. it is a top two system. the top two candidates with the most votes goes through to the general election today. so we had two democrats vying for the senator's seat. she has been in the news quite a lot recently for her role during the process of brett kavanaugh and the controversy over what she knew about the allegations against him. she has been returned once again. ok, peter bowes in california. i was looking at a film about the california 25th. you have about the california 25th. you have a 31—year—old girl. this 31—year—old woman, you are talking about

millennials, she is hanging off a cliff face speaking to the voters. she is taking on a policeman who is the republican congressmen in the 25th. it was one of the most expensive house races this year. $15.5 million spent on that. she was a bit like beto o'rourke, able to get these small ticket donations from young people interstate. that, surely, has to be the way forward for the democrats. i think it is. a lot of us have talked, especially those of us with grey hair. maybe it is time for some of us to step aside and let the younger folks come in. that is so true of the leadership. i think nancy pelosi understands. they need to make room for younger people in this party, for real serious leadership roles. if they don't do it they are going to pay a price. she is not going to do it after tonight, is she? and the nancy pelosi. .. my

tonight, is she? and the nancy pelosi... my point is, when you tonight, is she? and the nancy pelosi. .. my point is, when you deal with people on those committees and give them real power, when you put people into the with positions and leadership positions you choose those no faces. the next generation. absolutely. when you have nancy pelosi in her 70s, when the absolutely. when you have nancy pelosi in her70s, when the number two is in his 70s. the number three is in his 70s. your point is absolutely right. what about somebody younger like a tim ryan in his 40s. the republican leadership, they are all in their 40s. the democrats are rawlinna 70s. there is a big generational shift. there will be hours spent analysing the finer points of this election results, but if they start looking at, there are millennial democrats who have one who are centrist and millennial then it -- who are centrist and millennial then it —— democrats who were one who are on the left of the party. is the future more centre for the democrats? i think, future more centre for the democrats? ithink, generally future more centre for the democrats? i think, generally in statewide races and presidential races, it definitely is. i think

when you are looking at districts like the joke rally district in new york or in boston, both of whom lost in their primary is... how about this one, new york 14, democrat holds. alexandria ocasio—cortez. she isa holds. alexandria ocasio—cortez. she is a progressive. she has notjust one. laughter. that is a shellacking. this was never a tossup. this was not a tossup. that is, more than any other reflects the battle in the democratic party. the primary, absolutely. the old guard and the new. i do think that this is less about ideology than it is about style and approach. i think one of the things that happens when 58% of the things that happens when 58% of the people over 60 vote in these off your elections and last election, 16% of those 18— 30 votes, then,

people just sort of ignore you. well, now they are voting. now their voices are being heard. and they are running for office. what might be exciting is that we may see knock—on effect in terms of millennial engagement in elections, on both sides of the aisle. because they have not voted tradition in big numbers. it is possible after this that it millennials have won seats in congress, will that galvanise a whole new wave of millennials? yes! i tell my students at georgetown that they are now the largest voting bloc in the united states. it is no longer be senior citizens, it is the millennials. if they register and vote in getting gauge they can make a difference. let us go to texas to someone who has won. gary o'donoghue has won. the ted cruz campaign headquarters. they have all gone home. they have taken down the posters. the music is gone. gary o'donoghue is still there. nobody wa nted o'donoghue is still there. nobody wanted to party with ted cruz. shouldn't this be a celebration down

there still? the party is over. they had a little bit of a jig for about half an hour. but they have all gone home to bed now. that may reflect the demographic of ted cruz‘s voted down here. but they are pleased, obviously. we will see what the final numbers. it is probably edging up final numbers. it is probably edging up towards the margin we were expecting. you are mentioning the knock—on effects of these things. there are a couple of things that the democrats will take away from tonight. you have talked about the sessions with a seat in dallas, dallas, texas 32. an incredible powerful middle of the road republican who has lost when formal football player. there is another seat, texas seven, not far from football player. there is another seat, texas seven, not farfrom here thatis seat, texas seven, not farfrom here that is looking good for the democrats as well. they may pick up a couple of districts in texas. that would edge them up, getting up towards 13, 14 seats in this state.

and it's 36 electoral college votes and all that for the long—term. they will take some way from that. the other thing the democrats will take away is the creation of beto o'rourke. the elevation of him to the national stage. it has cost them a lot of money, but he is now a very energising nationalfigure. and he clearly will have a big future in democratic politics. talking about the millennials, going to see him perform yesterday, i call it a performance, because that is exactly what it was, he took that audience with him. they were very young, i was a two thirds young female, young women in that audience, very much that kind of generation you have been talking about. and if he can keep that going and they can keep their grassroots network in place and keep that energised for the next two years, and other two use, et cetera, then they have for me to go back to. as things stand, texas is still deep red in terms of statewide

races. 30 years since a democrat won a senate sepia. it is going to be another heave —— senate sepia. quick word on ted cruz, because he is an odd relationship with the president, doesn't he, to say the least? laughter. he does. you remember back in 2016 the vitriol between the two was extraordinary. it got notjust personal between them, but you'll remember that the president also had a go at ted cruz‘s white, about the way she looked. —— wife. ted cruz refused to ta ke looked. —— wife. ted cruz refused to take the stage and give public endorsement. but ted cruz has really had to nail his colours to donald trump's mast. with saw that in the run—up to this day, because ted cruz

had to ask the president to come down here for him. he did a rally in houston. that was a sign, i think, that they felt they needed that extra kind of boost in the run—up to polling day. ted cruz has had to swallow his bride, i think when it comes to the president. therefore the ted cruz gig, i think we are calling it. texas seven, that it is coming in. this was a tossup and it has now gone to the democrats. this was a district that had been seen as something of a possible blue wave indicator, in the suburbs of houston. it is now gone from republican tipping democratic. this analysis is going to carry on. we still don't know the size of the democratic margin in the house. we know the president will be happy with the senate, happy with the fact that the senate as he campaigned for seem to have done well in the state

that he campaigned in. but the size of the democratic margin as can give us some indication of whether the ripple was actually more of a small gulf coast way. i think you know especially when you have a special of the states which were gerrymandered, you know, virginia is a perfect case for the republicans. they did what they do when they recharge them and the democrats when they are in charge. ordinarily it is ha rd to they are in charge. ordinarily it is hard to win those kinds of seeds. texas was a perfect case that as well. but a couple of things happening. i think if air nz is the suburban ex— urban areas that are moving. but also in texas people can't forget that hillary clinton did better in texas and barack obama did better in texas and barack obama did four years earlier. it was like 16 points lost for obama and like it

or nine for hillary. and you seen this demographic shift in a steadily texas. this is one of the that george w bush said hague, i know we need immigration reform and we need to do so this, and when he ran for governor, 45% of the hispanic vote in texas, that is happening with many republicans. we're still waiting for the result in the georgia governor's race. it has been closed between the republican and stacey abrams. as a get that, we will bring that to you. but bring that up because it is another stay where hillary clinton did better than barack obama how does suggest that they have a democratic shift in the country. the cheeky nature of america of terms of suburbanisation of the country. that all tells you what about where the country is heading in the democratic party is heading? —— the cheeky nature. heading in the democratic party is heading? -- the cheeky nature. they are calling this the revenge of the

suburbs and they think that is exactly what we're seeing tonight. let's look at georgia. traditionally high american turnout and a high african american population in georgia. if you find in the suburbs of atlantic old people coming out, women coming out, with an african american coming out, the democrats now have hope and optimism heading into 2020. but they are not there yet and at the moment the white house is celebrating, speaking to the media in the last hour we heard from kellyanne conway. donald trump said his mood was buoyant. reporters asked whether he should be fearing impeachment. we're not really talking about that. he said yesterday they will do what they wa nt yesterday they will do what they want to do and he will do what he needs to do. i do know that they'll be too much of an appetite across this country, some of these democratic districts among constituents, that is. we factor in

the time investigating, trying to bijan subpoenaed people, that is a decision they will lead to me, but we decision they will lead to me, but we have two really did the voters what they want. as can tell, there are not many voters out there saying, you know, i'm there to give you an affirmative vote today, because you promised to investigate everybody or impedes the president. they seem to be little appetite that. i have hardly had the words rushing pollution tonight. and i think that. people are talking about the economy, about healthcare, about immigration, they are talking about national security of the world. —— russian collusion. they are not talking about russian collusion. while. -- talking about russian collusion. while. —— well. he rightly tell you bit louder about it in the next 2—3 weeks, because we don't know what we don't know about that investigation. some people... that is one otherwise the things that you have several leading. i am six hours down and

getting into my stride. —— said all evening. newjersey getting into my stride. —— said all evening. new jersey was getting into my stride. —— said all evening. newjersey was a blip. let's talk about the impeachment word. obviously some democrats want to talk about impeachment, particularly in the progressive left. do you think we need to go there? happy we should have a year and a half investigation of benghazi and a half investigation of benghazi and start right away. look, the fact is that the president and kellyanne conway at should be very concerned about what is going to happen in terms of investigations. not impeachment. i would stay away from it. but you have, you have more corruption in this administration in two years then you had in a with barack obama, which was basically zero. barack obama, which was basically zero. ryan zinke is in trouble. this stuff which was able to just kind of particulate and go on, that won't happen. absolute they will go after

this. he said that he would go public. remember? attic at the same time, and this goes to the heart of the constituencies, what we are talking about, you need to convince the merit of people you want to do so that infrastructure. you have to convince the american people that a you are going to even improve their afforda ble you are going to even improve their affordable care act. you need to convince the american people that you have a message, that you will make life better for them. one of the problem is the democrats is that, they in 2016, we were treating individual groups as, you know, in our metrics, and we were not speaking to the whole country as well as the republicans were. but you have a standardbearer who will do that right now? i don't think so. no. but we have 30 people, and they think out of that 30 will come, one of them. a lot of folks are disturbed when i said this, but, you

know, when i think of us have a better role, and i am old enough — i think of robert kennedy. i think as you can speak to inner—city blacks and rural poor whites. i think somebody who can craft a message and an approach which is inclusive. if we an approach which is inclusive. if we don't have that kind of a candidate in 2020, we will lose. what is the message? the message is if you think this guy is doing something so great view, but let me, you're right. 83% of something so great view, but let me, you're right. 8396 of that tax cut went to the top 1%. that is why they did not talk much about it. the kind of policies that hear engaging in a not helping the folks who want to make america great again. and a highly disagree with that.” make america great again. and a highly disagree with that. i am sure you do. but the notion that we have the lowest level of the rate at 3.7%

—iwas the lowest level of the rate at 3.7% — i was born in 1969. the lowest at an american unemployment rates, wages are rising, there is good economic news they can save— that you could say was delivered by the republicans are donald trump. added by2020 republicans are donald trump. added by 2020 better still the case and there are talks about deficits, and are spending more on national debt than defence, issues like that — that you are right. what happens of these things as we go back and we say barack these things as we go back and we say ba rack obama these things as we go back and we say barack obama did this. he greeted the economy. he put the stuff together. jeannot at that gets us? nothing. even if it is true to say, he started the recovery, donald trump continued the recovery. let's give you a quick list of the districts for those who are watching the race closely that have just gone from the republicans to the democrats. this is where the democrats. this is where the democrats are taking the house denied because they are taking

districts away from republicans. new york 19, texas seven, we mention that one, we spoke a bit earlier. aiello three as well. they didn't do not just win the aiello three as well. they didn't do notjust win the race is that they are ready had, they needed to pick up are ready had, they needed to pick up in the republicans, and they are doing that. we'll have those races that come in later on. it is not just eat question of the messages but also the question of the standardbearer. the person you are describing sounds likejoe biden of 30 years ago. a younger version of joe biden, so who has crossed racial, it crossed urban rural appeal, can appeal to female voters in male voters, have that — i don't see any 30 people that you might be thinking of in the democratic side, it isa thinking of in the democratic side, it is a little bit obvious. the senator from minnesota it is a little bit obvious. the senatorfrom minnesota is very capable, very, you know,

charismatic. you have the governor of montana, who was a very interesting guy, out of the heartland. i think, interesting guy, out of the heartland. ithink, look, here i comment in go sky, but i am not in favour of repeating the past m ista kes favour of repeating the past mistakes that we have made, and certainly a bernie sanders — sort of thing. that makes whoever gets the broadest appeal, that person has to go broadest appeal, that person has to 9° up broadest appeal, that person has to go up against donald trump, unusual candour that, and askjeb bush, marco rubio, ted cruz, what that is like. to me, the 2020 nation presence looks a lot like 1992. of the 30 or so people do with it will run to the democratic nomination, i think your —— i think you are right. so he will sneak in. we are not

talking about if there is going to bea talking about if there is going to be a republic in the covers and challenges donald trump. john kasich, my former boss, but the one lam kasich, my former boss, but the one i am watching today is the senator of utah, the romney. what happens when he takes his seat and comes up against, of course, mitch mcconnell, majority leader. who will be the brightest star in the senate? and will he take some of the dissatisfied republicans with him out a challenge to the president? a very interesting question. but the senators who want a republican, who can speak out against donald trump, who are missing john mccain, and you will missjeff flake and bob corker in the senate, mitt romney is the person who can come in and has nothing to lose. he can read a lot of money, and as we ascended nancy pelosi tonight, the ability to come out and generate funds for candour

is ready for will have a lot republicans hold on to mitt romney. we wa nt republicans hold on to mitt romney. we want to the moments that the results came in was going to be starting. that is why we talk about tonight. you cannot underestimate american elections. take another break! will be back with more results are just a moment. first of all, a round—up of the dave's news. hello. president trump has boasted of what he calls a "tremendous success" for his party in tuesday's mid—term elections. the republican party retained control of the upper house, the senate. but the democrats have regained control of the house of representatives. this will have a major impact on anything president trump hopes to do in his next two years in office. jon donnison has the latest. the cbs evening news, from the decision desk. this is a moment of

truth for donald trump. it is congress that is up for grabs, but these elections are widely seen as a referendum on his presidency. democrats had hoped for a blue wave. it's perhaps be more of a ripple. but ina it's perhaps be more of a ripple. but in a blow to the president, they have won back control of the house of representatives. applause. today it is about more than about democrats and republicans. it is about restoring the constitution's checks and balances to the trump administration. but in the senate it is republicans who have a victory, keeping their majority. among those celebrating, supporters of senator ted cruz, who held his seat in texas . tonight is a victory for the people of texas. tonight is a victory for all the men and women in this room and all the men and women across this state that port your

hearts, your passion, your time, your energy to rising to defend texas. turn-out is reported to have been high. love him or hate him, president trump seems to have brought out the vote. in each week he declared the evening a tremendous success. but a democrat controlled house could make the president's life difficult. after a fiery election campaign america's bitter divisions seem unlikely to heal. jon donnison, bbc news. let's get some of the day's other news: the bbc understands that the british government has drawn up a timetable to sell a deal on the country's departure from the european union to the public, even though no agreement has yet been reached. this would include messages of support from world leaders, and a visit by prime minister theresa may to northern ireland. it's the border across the island of ireland that remains the outstanding issue. six people have been arrested in france on suspicion of planning

to carry out a "violent" attack on president emmanuel macron, officials say. the individuals, reported to be five men and a woman, were picked up by the french security services in brittany, north—east and south—east france. details of the suspects and the alleged plot have not yet been released. the girl scouts of the united states of america is suing the boy scouts of america for dropping ‘boy‘ from the organisation's name. the boy scouts announced in may they were renaming their programme ‘scouts bsa' as they prepare to allow girls to join. however, the girl scout group says the change could erode their brand. more news in an hour, now back to the mid term election special. welcome back to our coverage of the

us mid—term elections in 2018. we have been here for hours and hours. we do have a lot of results now. we are still waiting for some results to come in from the west coast of the country. it has been a fascinating night with the democrats taking the house, the republicans holding on to the senate and expanding their march —— margins that. we will look at some of the governors races there. democrats 186 in the house. the democrats have picked up the 23 that they needed. you can see that that they are 26. this takes them into the majority. it will do by the time we count the california races which will go democratic. on the senate side, republicans 51, democrats 42. if you arejust republicans 51, democrats 42. if you are just joining republicans 51, democrats 42. if you arejustjoining us we have peter fenn, democratic strategist, ron christie, former advisor to george w bushis christie, former advisor to george w bush is also with is, and we can go

to florida, where rajini vaidyanathan to florida, where rajini vaidya nathan has to florida, where rajini vaidyanathan has been with us. thank you for staying up all night, write to the end, because we need you now, because governor rick scott has declared victory in the senate race. it has just been speaking. that is another huge thing that the republicans are going to be happy about. indeed, katty. according to the tampa bay times, this is the first time for more than a century that the republican party have held both senate seats here in florida. you might be able to confirm whether thatis you might be able to confirm whether that is true. the last time a party held both seats for the democrats bill nelson, whojust held both seats for the democrats bill nelson, who just lost an eye, served alongside bob graham. i think that was between 2000 and 2004 —— who just lost tonight. they also held on to the governorship as well. it was a big defeat for the democratic party, who had pinned a

lot of hopes on andrew gillum becoming florida's first african—american governor. is this a ringing endorsement of the trump presidency here in florida? well, maybe not quite. in both these big the margin of victory was less than a percentage point, which is why i was furiously clicking refresh on the florida state elections website all night. and, finally, we have those concessions. in a way it reflects the deep divisions notjust in florida, but across america. almost half of the people who voted in these races who really do believe in donald trump's agenda. as we have seenin in donald trump's agenda. as we have seen in these results, not too far behind you have almost the same number of people saying that they rejected them. and this is so important to the 2020 election, which, as we have been saying all night, starts tomorrow, or to daily. there are 27 from —— congressional

district that will stop both senate seats. and they are both in republican hands. what is that mean for donald trump? certainly having the governor of his state continue to be republican is important in terms of the way that florida goes forward. but it is those two senate seats that are important. joining marco rubio we now have rick scott in the senate as well. this is a really important in the senate as well. this is a really im porta nt state in the senate as well. this is a really important state to donald trump personally. he has a property here, mar—a—lago. the campaigns he himself, he comes here all the time. even after he won the election he regularly held rallies to thank his supporters here. this means a lot to him. it is so crucial, because the changing demographics in florida, you talked a lot in the programme about the young vote, the millennial vote, and the changing demographics, but what we have seen tonight is that despite that you have still got

a core base of largely older white voters here in florida who are willing to turn out for him. that is key as we go into 2020. if he can get those people to vote again for him, well, he is looking very safely ata him, well, he is looking very safely at a second term. ok. rajini vaidyanathan at a second term. ok. rajini vaidya nathan there are at a second term. ok. rajini vaidyanathan there are in florida. thank you very much. what is going to be interesting tomorrow, peter, is where the independents have gone in this race. the people standing in the middle deciding which way to go. for the first time since 2008 they have gone the democrat way. yeah. the polls show that. i think that one of the things that is pretty clear is that both sides got out their vote on this one. anybody who would say that donald trump's supporters were not energised was smoking something that was probably on the ballot in several states.

laughter. i think one of the things that is important is that sometimes we get into these it'sjust important is that sometimes we get into these it's just the base that matters or you forget the middle, forget the independent voters will stop that is not really a very wise poetical strategy. i think florida will be a battleground state next time, no question. these were pretty even races. the demographics are changing. you know, you had scott who could just keep writing cheques for his campaign, it was unbelievable. and he did. and he did. and gillum. ithink the investigation in tallahassee, it did not go right at the heart of him, but it sure worked around him and was not helpful for him at the end of the campaign. 50 was not helpful for him at the end of the campaign. sol was not helpful for him at the end of the campaign. 50 i think that this situation, if someone says that puts florida in the republican

column, i would love them to say that, because taken for granted, that, because taken for granted, thatis that, because taken for granted, that is fine. but i think it will big... just going through twitter and social media tonight. there is quite a lot of handwringing among democrats. is that democrats who like to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to some extent? there is a history of this. the lowest unemployment rate since 1969, the economy is booming, wages are ticking up in the country, and donald trump is a formidable candidate when it comes to getting out his base. he may not reach much beyond its banks, and what is not in the picture, i wonder how much things change and whether democrats should not be taking more solace —— his base. before this started i said if we get the house i am a happy camper. idid if we get the house i am a happy camper. i did not expect by any stretch. talking about governance. we are picking up governors, quite a few of them. let us look at the

state legislatures when these things finally shake down as well. we just got another one in maine. has defeated the republican shawn moody. there is a lot going on out there. james carrville said it best in 1992, the big sign at the clinton headquarters, it is the economy, stupid. i kept telling my friends, this is going to be really hard. you heard it in interviews. you folks are out there all the time. i don't like the guy very much, he is not my cup of tea, but things are going pretty well... and because you are the president, you are not thinking about why or how, you are thinking about... and some of the senate seats they have want a night in the red states, they have cut metalliser that will stop if they don't like donald trump they like what he's doing for. can i ask you, now that the house is in the hands of the democrats, people will be waking up around the world looking at this result. what does it mean for some

of the more controversial policies that this administration has been following particularly on tariffs, on nafta, for instance, is the sort of things that congressional committees can stop in their tracks? i don't think they can stop them in their tracks, but they can certainly have hearings in iowa on soy beans, those problems. if you look at some of the states, the trade issues played well. you also have the chamber of commerce, you have a lot of folks and you will have a lot of members of congress on the republican side, mitt romney being one, republican side, mitt romney being one , saying republican side, mitt romney being one, saying back off you. because you are hurting americans. this is not going to work. but do they have the power to stop in? more on domestic things. the way our constitution is structured the president has more power when you look at foreign affairs matters. this is going to be the critical thing for the president moving forward that i don't think he has

realised. his gravy train days are over of having the house republicans do his bidding for him. now to your point. you will have the gables in the hands of these democrats and they will subpoena, they will investigate, they will have staff digging into any number of issues that the white house which they are right now not thinking about which could tie the hands of this administration for the next two years. democrats will tell you repeatedly that they believe this is one of the most corrupt administrations in history. they now have the possibility to subpoena documents, witnesses, and they will investigate. they will have to be careful with that. if you push that too far... there are already reports tonight saying they will use the democrats as a foil. here is the other side of this, if i can throw it out, i shouldn't, probably... go—ahead. please. it out, i shouldn't, probably... go-ahead. please. in one sense you might have a president trump that is a happy guy because he has got the foil... he has someone to fight

against. he will attack them mercilessly. but to your point, you know, if we back off, if we are intimidated as democrats, we ought to have our heads examined.” intimidated as democrats, we ought to have our heads examined. i don't think nancy pelosi, first of all, nancy pelosi is not somebody easily intimidated, but she is also somebody who in this situation, i think, has enough leadership experience with the democratic party to make a decision as to where an investigation is a good idea and is not a good idea for the democratic party. i've had democrats who are not legally fond of nancy pelosi saying in this situation she might be the right woman for the job —— not overly fond. she is the one person he can look at all these committee chairs and say no. i don't wa nt committee chairs and say no. i don't want to doing this. what an end to it before it starts. let us bring you that arizona race. martha mcsally, the republican, ex— air force up against kersten cinema, the democrat. 29% of the precinct in ——

used in cinema. this is too close to call. only 29% of the precinct are in. we have been saying how important it is until they are in. one third of the electorate in arizona is an independent. we have been saying the independents are tilting to the democrats. we don't know which votes are being counted. whether they are rural area is also burban. this would be a democratic pickup. so far in the senate the democrats have not had a pick up all night long. now it is up to nevada and arizona. there are a lot of veterans in nevada. gives a rundown of her cv. she has run as the air force vetera n. she has run as the air force veteran. she has made a point of painting custom cinema as the anti— wall pass. so if you are of that, then there is that. you utterly

right. this goes back to the notion of the independent. arizona has a lot of veterans who have moved there, and they view themselves as republicans or democrats, but veterans. i think the arizona electorate, and i'm pretty surprised that it electorate, and i'm pretty surprised thatitis electorate, and i'm pretty surprised that it is this close. i am not. i was to debate the other night. we also did some spots for curzon cinema. we will disclose that. but the interesting thing is that mick sally has some rural problems. not only in the pre—existing condition issue, but she also talked about vouchers for medicare and privatising social security. not goodin privatising social security. not good ina privatising social security. not good in a senior population in a state like that. and so that— atb question is where the independents will go. because the rapunzel stay with her no question. they'll be the most fascinating thing tomorrow, how the map has been withdrawn

overnight. —— redrawn. so we'll look at some of these swings against republicans. kansas three. new jersey two. oklahoma fired. new york 11. il-1. that is jersey two. oklahoma fired. new york 11. il—1. that is one in iowa which is interesting. —— iowa. he was a long way ahead and there was an pretty unsavoury comments that got him intoa pretty unsavoury comments that got him into a lot of hot water with his backers. they thought he might lose. speaking has had a long history of inventory comments that have been controversial. so let's see inventory comments that have been controversial. so let‘s see whether— it looks like he has been to pull off iowa fourth. antony, where getting to the end of the special action programme. i would you sum up how you are seeing things at the current state of play. you know, i think what is remarkable about this mid—term election is that in past

wave mid—term election is that in past wave elections, everything seems to have moved in one direction. all of that also is, they all tended to go one way or the other. this doesn't ended up being a tossup. some broke for republicans, suffer democrats. they wait any huge surprises. imagine that staten island earlier. there is one in our koroma. —— oklahoma. that she may end up being the biggest congressional house upset of the night. other than that, there are a lot of datapoints breaking a lot of different ways. one of the things that i was kind of interested in that gets overlooked a lot is what is happening in state legislative races. these are very important to people who live in states who control the legislature and in colorado, the senate that from republican to democrat, in new york the senate did as well. in minnesota the house that from

democrat — from democrat to republican. —— from republican to democrat. during the democratic years, that 800 seats which from democrat to. that disrupted the democrat to. that disrupted the democrat base. these are the people governor farm system, come through the ranks, and are being murmurs of congress and governors. now it is never there are pledging some those seats. the race to the governor 's houses was almost a direct opposite to the rest of the senate. there we re to the rest of the senate. there were 36 governors ‘s position is open to night for re—election and 26 of them were republican. the people outside america, sometimes governors have more effect on people ‘s lives in the states than the presence. how important are they and what sort of frenzy seeing? you're absolutely right. governors have a lot of power over the individual states. it is looking like democrat or go to do well in governors races and ended up

doing pretty well. obviously losing the florida race was a big blow to democrats. they really hope they can and would prevail. it has been 20 years since the democrat held the governor's mansion in that state and now it is good to be in republican hands for another four years, in the hands for another four years, in the hands of somebody who is a very conservative pro— donald trump republican. george is another big loss. losing iowa, dirrellthe rest of the quebec. that debate michigan, they took back illinois, car deal is a real dogfight in one in wisconsin. they could go either way. scott walker as one real action twice, including one that was to recall election. he is trailing byjust a handful of thousands of votes. democrats picked up new mexico. it looks could dogfight in nevada. the playing field for the state governor 's mansion is, there was a lot more even than the senate race. 50 yes the senate to the lot towards the republicans. they picked up

someone's hair. but the republican— the governor's races, that is some ways the democrats do better. making a very wise whether we've been focusing on the senate and the house and the governors races. the democratic party was religious medicare and the united states on another server could be picking up again. anthony zurcher, thank you for joining again. anthony zurcher, thank you forjoining us again. this gives me a little bit of a chuckle. there are two people running in this race who have been indicted. one of them was arrested in august. to republican, as men who have been indicted. one campaign fraud and the other on insider trading. it looks that they have both won their seats.” insider trading. it looks that they have both won their seats. i think they will both be re—elected, and that goes to show how quirky our syste m that goes to show how quirky our system is, that on election night, people say through the bums out, but mine is not as bad as yours. even if

these men could be found guilty.- what point is a stub their congressmen? exactly. you would think that the republican leadership at the junction where they were indicted should have said get done, the rivalry election, and that assures you that our leadership, particularly in the house, was more concerned about preserving the house that expelling members who are allegedly do bad things. so, as we can to the end of our coverage, tell me what the democratic party will be doing in the morning.” me what the democratic party will be doing in the morning. i think there will be organising like crazy for the house of representatives. i think it is governors races, which it looks like me if i six, we will see how many we are not taking it into the night, there will be taking on putting together, and then selling the state legislative races. people forget that when barack obama was elected in 2008 to the democrats control two thirds. when donald trump was elected, the republicans

controlled two thirds. and a lot of that was because of the debacle with the democrats in the 2010. there is could be a lot of discussion about that and how to use some of the advantages that we got to night. and what would be republicans be doing tomorrow morning? tiin themselves cause of the donald trump?” tomorrow morning? tiin themselves cause of the donald trump? i don't think so. i think assuming he doesn't get a leadership challenge, he will be wondering how we function in the house without donald trump the next two years, and what we do to rebuild. this will be a stinging defeat for house republicans, and they will not get much help. now that the mid—term elections are out of the way, do we see another reshuffle in the car? with thejeff sessions, it looks a key is on his way out. the is little reggie

mattan. that there is then talk aboutjim mattis. mattan. that there is then talk about jim mattis. it would be normal. i think the attorney general is dead man walking. i think you're looking at the interior secretary under investigation. severino is of the current cabinet that we have not focused on my phone sells out of a job due to ethical considerations. the guru of polling a strategy and reporting and predictions here in the united states hasjust reporting and predictions here in the united states has just tweeted this. there is one thing you can say about donald trump. he has brought interest to politics. this is to be boring. it is 114 million, itv

turnout in a presidential election la st turnout in a presidential election last time was about 135, one 30. this is not far short of that. that is the donald trump impact on the republican side, and the democratic side, galvanising. was california comes in, my father, 94, called me and said somebody ought to take a look at how many voted democratic and how many voted republican on the total electorate. we with 2 million vote rs have total electorate. we with 2 million voters have risen california. thank you for being with us for the last how many hours here. the last six hours that we have been more — palomo would be on television? a long time. you have been with us for hours and hours. when you are kept pressure light. thank you for joining here. questions can stay with me in washington for another few days. will be back tomorrow today just the results few days. will be back tomorrow todayjust the results give given a response. no doubt there will be

more from donald trump, but the white house will be celebrating their vote in the senate. democrats will be voting the vote in hours. a divider country has given us a divided result. hello there. set to turn unsettled the suite was in wet and windy weather moving in off the atlantic. with winds continuing to come in from the south or the south—west, it should remain on the mild side. this morning is going to be a wet start across many southern and western areas. in the rain will become confined to western areas with blustery showers moving into the afternoon. best sunshine in north—east england and scotland. the

way from northern ireland, a witty day. mild especially in the central and eastern parts, 14 or 15 celsius. ten or 11 for belfast. into thursday, this next weatherfront brings in wet weather to central portions of the country. on either side, it could be dry with sunshine. anti— good friday, we could see a speu anti— good friday, we could see a spell of wet and windy weather, particularly across western areas. but it will be remaining very mild. good morning. welcome to breakfast, with dan walker and louise minchin. our headlines today: a blow for donald trump, as the democrats take back control of the house of representatives. but mr trump hails the night a tremendous success, as the republicans hold onto the senate. passengers flying in and out of heathrow face disruption because of a fault with the runway lights. uncovering the forgotten stories of the 1.3 million indian soldiers who fought in world war one. can local people determine the future of their high street?

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