tv BBC News at Five BBC News November 13, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm GMT
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today at 5, the details of a brexit deal have been agreed, the bbc is told that the cabinet will hold a full meeting tomorrow, and asked to approve the deal. ministers met earlier today to be given the latest progress, but since then officials have apparently agreed the final outline of a deal. the moment of truth for the prime minister, can she get the cabinet to back it? but even if the cabinet approved the deal, there's still no guarantee that mps will back it in parliament. the other main stories on bbc news at 5. fires continue to rage across parts of california, 44 people are now known to have died, and hundreds more are missing. after a pregnant women is shot through the stomach with a crossbow, her baby survived, now a man
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is charged with murder. the trial of one of the world's most powerful drug traffickers begins in new york, el chapo is accused of smuggling narcotics from mexico to the united states. and, a warm welcome for wayne rooney. he says it's great to be back ahead of england's friendly with the united states on thursday. it's 5 o'clock. our main story is that two and a half years after the eu referendum, officials have finally agreed the technical details of a brexit deal, between theresa may's government and the european union. the bbc understands that cabinet ministers are being called in to downing street individually this evening, ahead of an emergency cabinet meeting tomorrow afternoon, when they'll be asked to approve the deal. but even if they do, there is still no guarantee that mps will vote for it when they get their opportunity in a parliamentary vote.
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for the latest, let's join our chief political correspondent vicki young at westminster. just to say that is no longer speculation, we can confirm, the latest from downing street, the cabinet will meet at tpm tomorrow to consider thejob cabinet will meet at tpm tomorrow to consider the job agreement the negotiating team have agreed in brussels and to agree on next steps. cabinet ministers have been invited to read the documentation ahead of the meeting. the documents is the d raft the meeting. the documents is the draft agreement, the so—called divorce deal. theresa may has said it many times, 95% of that was done. ministers have read most of that. it is the final part, the 5% that was the sticking point for so long about what would happen to avoid border checks between ireland and northern
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ireland. it seems there is text that will be shown to cabinet ministers. the question for them, does it have the safeguards they want? some are concerned about the uk being trapped, as they would see it, in an ongoing customs union which the uk cannot get out of ulster how has the negotiating team got around that? —— cannot get out of. can the uk leave without the say—so of the european court ofjustice for instance? these details the ministers are going to be looking at. many have voiced their criticisms, fears over the direction of the brexit talks. now it's time for them to decide when they seen the detail, can they back it, can they back the prime minister oi’ it, can they back the prime minister or will they be forced to resign because they can't go along with what she wants them to do? essential to underline at this page, when we have headline saying a deal
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has been agreed, albeit between officials on a technical level, that should lead people to think that this is the final deal because frankly there are many obstacles ahead. it is a huge moment, let's not downplay it. the fact that even the technical teams have got to a position where they have a document, they've completed a document and feel it is the compromise they can live with, that is a very significant moment after all these months and the difficulties there have been four theresa may. as you say, it is up to the cabinet and many have deep concerns. can she ta ke many have deep concerns. can she take them with her and if she can... people aren't ruling out resignations. fachie carry on, will she put it to a vote here and if she does, what will happen? —— can she carry on. there have been problems, not just those who are
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carry on. there have been problems, notjust those who are pro—brexit who have concerns, that britain will be too closely aligned to the eu, not able to come up with any of the benefits from being free of the eu, as they would see ed. then you have the likes of jo as they would see ed. then you have the likes ofjo johnson, as they would see ed. then you have the likes ofjojohnson, who resigned as transport minister, who feels it is such a compromise that it goes too far and it is the worst of all worlds. some other conservatives feel that way. a very difficult way for the prime minister, even if the cabinet backs it. the next 24 hours, as we understand it there will be individual meetings this evening, is that right, and a full meeting tomorrow. downing street have confirmed in the last few minutes that cabinet ministers are being called in this evening, i think the first is matt hancock, the health secretary, he has gone in. they are being called in and invited to read documentation ahead of the meeting. they haven't said it is individual
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meetings, there may be more than one ata time meetings, there may be more than one at a time to read it. of course theresa may must know from them what they think of what is before them because she will want to know before the cabinet meeting tomorrow which way this is likely to go, who is happy and who isn't with what is going on. finally, what happens if there is no agreement in cabinet? what is the step that is facing theresa may? the issue then is who is not willing to go along with it? let's be blunt, if there were a couple of resignations, if they were less senior, she could wear that, given that david davies, the brexit secretary, went, and so did foreign secretary borisjohnson. if it is a large number of them who decide they can't live with it then she is in
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deep difficulty and the talk of a no deal scenario ramps up. we'll see where we get to by the end of the night and then the full cabinet meeting tomorrow. she would be in a desperate place if she can't get her cabinet to back it. but it doesn't necessarily have to be all of them. thank you forjoining us. let's go to our europe correspondent, damian grammaticas. this is a text agreement, i think it's important to say that it is an agreement on text, not a deal, which isa agreement on text, not a deal, which is a clear distinction. what is the reading there? absolutely, and a very important distinction because this is the text of the legal withdrawal agreement, the divorce agreement that the sides have been working on now for 12 months, since they focused way back last december, particularly on the irish border issue. what we now have is a
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document that's been produced, huge, 500 pages, of dense text which we'll wait to see the detail of. that is moving from the hands of the negotiators, the legal teams, the drafting teams, into the hands of the politicians. we enter a new phase but in many ways a much more difficult and treacherous phase, as micky young was indicating. there could be many things which may be an issue. that is one of the concerns from the eu. they know that getting to this point has been very difficult. whether theresa may can get this through cabinet and parliament is another very big question. on the eu side, the eu 27 countries will wait to see. their ambassadors have a meeting in brussels tomorrow evening at about
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this time when they will get their full briefing from michel barnier‘s negotiating team. if this appears an a cce pta ble negotiating team. if this appears an acceptable in london it will pass to the eu 27 capitals for their comments. a lot of toing and froing to go. a point about the last few days of negotiations, pretty intense as we've reported. has there been any hint about how these issues have been resolved, notably the irish border? what's interesting here is that all the talk on this has been that all the talk on this has been that the focus had moved on to the uk's idea of a customs union arrangement for the whole of the uk asa arrangement for the whole of the uk as a way of avoiding that border in ireland between ireland and northern ireland. what the irish broadcaster rte has been saying over the last hour is that the understanding is that that has worked its way into
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this exit agreement, the idea of a customs union. that could be in there. the crucial questions are, how broad is it? what are the conditions attached? the eu have said that if the uk wanted that, there would need to be a level playing field provision, the uk signing up to quite a lot of eu legislation and rules on things like state aid, environment, workers' rights so that uk companies couldn't undercut the eu. that's one of the things, how much has the uk had to sign up to? how can the uk exit from that? is it time—limited? it appears it has some kind of exit mechanism where the uk can say it once to leave and then there is a review. but then, buried within the text, underneath all of that, it appears
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there is probably still that original irish border solution envisaged by the eu, in case the situation arises, to keep that borderfree, which would keep northern ireland aligned to the rules and regulations of the eu, the single market and customs union rules. that's difficult political thing that theresa may said she wouldn't accept, could that still be there? it appears it is, so that's a crucial question. thank you for joining us. our reality check correspondent chris morris is with me. what do we know about the issue we've mentioned? what do we know about the issue we've mentioned ? you what do we know about the issue we've mentioned? you can tell us something about the irish perspective. obviously it's going to bea perspective. obviously it's going to be a fairly feed while political atmosphere in —— febrile political atmosphere in —— febrile political atmosphere here and in europe. we've
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had a statement, negotiations between the eu and the uk on the withdrawal agreement are ongoing. negotiators are still engaged in a number of issues which are outstanding, saying that they will not be commenting on media leaks in the future. there may be aspects that the irish are not happy about. a lot of it has to do with the exact wording of the review mechanism, how an all uk temporary customs union might end, what it might mean for the hard border in ireland. we can speculate but until we see the text, we can't tell. that statement gives you a flavour. we know that there is a cabinet meeting at 2pm tomorrow but there are issues at stake, not just in dublin but 26 other capitals. that's the point, if
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dublin are being cautious, even from london's point of view, the draft text may be in decent shape but clearly there are areas which may be open to negotiation. negotiations have taken place in what they call the tunnel, this tight group in brussels, the idea being that not much information is given out so that not much information has leaked out. obviously michel barnier and his team have been keeping other governments closely informed. there are regular meetings at ministerial level but in those last key hours when the details are completed there will be lawyers in other capitals who wants to go over them as well. that's why part of the process is going to be, in other capitals, time for other countries to say, hang on, what does this bit say? not
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necessarily about the provisional text of the withdrawal agreement. alongside that there will be a short text of an outline of a political declaration on the future relationship. what we are talking about is the terms on which the uk leaves the eu. there is a lot on what the future relationship will look like. initially that will be a document of no more than five or six pages. the idea is that it will get expanded with input from other countries and that forms the basis ofa countries and that forms the basis of a negotiating mandate for the next big negotiation which will start once we leave on march 29, on what the future looks like for security, foreign policy and most importantly, trade. a final point on the timescale. this draft agreement is there. let's say the cabinet approves, there may be some division
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but then it goes to parliament. clearly that's a big milestone but it isn't the only parliamentary vote that will take place because there will be others? if agreement emerges, a provisional agreement this week, that's with the intention of having a special eu summit towards the end of the month, the 25th, 27 november, which can nail this down. there's another eu summit scheduled for the middle of december which will be part of the process. the idea for the government is that you can push it through, the meaningful vote in parliament before christmas. no one can tell you what the agreement is and whether it will go through the commons. the numbers are very complex and i don't think anyone really knows. if that happens it must also be ratified in the european parliament, it must be agreed by what is called a qualified majority, a supermajority of the eu
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states, roughly 20 out of 27. there are several steps to go. roadblocks could emerge at any time. the other critical date, if we have no deal by the 21st of january next year, it sounds like a long way but only a couple of months, that's when the government have to go to parliament and say, this is what we're going to do next. that's when mps potentially could become much more involved in deciding how to possibly affect and change the brexit process. that's why there's a lot at stake this week. thank you forjoining us. let's cross back to our chief political correspondent vicki young at westminster. in terms of the read you see there, some of the details emerging, interesting that we have the textual agreement but we aren't sure what it is. talking to conservative mps they
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feel the same because they won't see it for a while. cabinet ministers are being invited to downing street, matt hancock has gone in, he's the first. they will get to see the text and it is up to them to decide whether they can back what theresa may is putting in front of them. let's get reaction. we don't know many details. sammy wilson from the dup. what will you be looking out for when you get to see the document? we looking for three things. firstly that whatever the arrangements that are put in place, that they do not treat northern ireland differently from the rest of the uk. the rumours so far indicate that isn't going to be the case, that isn't going to be the case, that northern ireland will have different arrangements in terms of customs and having to adhere to eu rules. secondly, any arrangements are purely temporary. birtley, that
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the ability to get out of those arrangements will left solely with the uk government —— thirdly. they should not be determined by the eu or some independent body. the uk government in westminster will have the ability to say that enough is enough, we are now leaving whatever agreement is put in place. you as a party would be prepared to vote against a withdrawal agreement that treats northern ireland differently and then presumably you would be happy that no deal...? and then presumably you would be happy that no deal. . . ? that's up to the prime minister, whether she brings a deal that makes the requirements that are set out, not just by ourselves. these are promises that she made. she recognised that the integrity of the uk was important. she has made them time and time again in the house and do us privately. secondly, it's not
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just an issue for us. many of our owi'i just an issue for us. many of our own backbenchers from scotland are concerned about separate treatment for northern ireland, the impact it would have on scotland and demands for independence, and many of our owi'i for independence, and many of our own backbenchers who do not want to be tied into some kind of customs arrangements for ever but want to know that if we do have to have a transition period until we get arrangements in place to facilitate trade, that we have the ability to walk out of those and that we make the decision. if the uk can walk away, it isn't really a fallback, it is no insurance. if we can walk away at any is no insurance. if we can walk away atany time is no insurance. if we can walk away at any time that doesn't help those who want to have confirmation that there will be no border check. either you believe people are negotiating a good faith or you don't. we want a harmonious relationship with the rest of the eu. up to date we have seen a lack
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of good faith on the eu side because they've used every mechanism to try and keep the uk tied to the eu. if both sides act in good faith there is no reason the eu should be afraid ofa is no reason the eu should be afraid of a backstop, to use the term, which allows the eu to say that we have negotiated honestly with you, we believe we've taken it as far as we believe we've taken it as far as we carl. we believe we've taken it as far as we can. we've got a relationship that we believe can secure harmonious relationships in the future, and now we want out of whatever backstop arrangement. when would you expect to be briefed about what is in the document?” would you expect to be briefed about what is in the document? i hope very sooi'i. what is in the document? i hope very soon. we haven't had the call. we aren't part of the cabinet so we expect the prime minister to tell the cabinet first but we would hope
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that since she has always said that we would be kept informed of where the direction of travel, we would be called in soon. thank you. conservative mp, simon hart. there's going to be some issues ahead. we don't know what's in the text but listening to samuel wilson, cabinet ministers going into night will have concerns about the direction this is going. i listened carefully to what he said, his wii points, and that is reflected across the conservative party. —— his three points. we have to compare this with alternative outcomes. we are at the rent of the road, we can't keep ducking the issue is, we have to make a decision, a national interest edition based on the deal versus the alternatives, which won't be easy for everyone. in your view, is the
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alternative no deal or are there other options? at the moment there are popular noises about no deal, we can't do this and we will default to that. that underestimate the amount of the position there is in the building to no deal. mps of the position there is in the building to no deal. mp5 from all parties are now making sure that there is some kind of plan to block i'io there is some kind of plan to block no deal, which poses some interesting dilemmas because if that isn't the default position, then what is the outcome? suddenly the second referendum comes back into the running. there is huge opposition to that and one of the reasons is the idea that this place can deal with it but we would be handling it back to the voters, something we would —— many would wa nt something we would —— many would want to avoid. a difficult few days for the prime minister, a long road
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to get even a draft agreement ready. what is your message to the cabinet ministers? people are ceiling out theresa may and saying it is difficult for her but it is difficult for her but it is difficult for her but it is difficult for everyone —— singling out theresa may. this is notjust about the prime minister and her career about the prime minister and her careerand herfuture. about the prime minister and her career and her future. this actually isa career and her future. this actually is a serious moment for the cabinet, it isn't a moment to be making overdue is about your leadership ambitions or flouncing off in a fit of pique. this is the moment where we see if the cabinet is up to the task, to resolve this really difficult problem, in the national interest. that does not mean in clothing just when we need calm, careful, measured competence. jacob rees—mogg hasjoined us. what is your message to cabinet ministers going to be the document this
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evening, the draft text? what would you be looking for? if what we have heard is true, this fails to meet the conservative party's manifesto and many of the commitments the prime minister makes. it would keep us prime minister makes. it would keep us in the customs union and de facto in the single market. it is a failure of the government negotiating position, a failure to deliver an brexit and attention the divining the uk. it is hard to see any reason why the cabinet should support northern ireland the ruling —— are being ruled from dublin. support northern ireland the ruling -- are being ruled from dublin. the feel that cabinet ministers should tell her and walk away? they should feel they do not agree if the text that has been leaked is correct. the text on the future of the uk is given to the irish tv station first and not to the british broadcasting corporation. that seems rather the kiryu, we don't even get hold our own future first, it is given out
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abroad. that is discourteous to the nation. theresa may would say that it has been difficult negotiations, it has been difficult negotiations, it was always going to be a compromise and no side will get what they want and you will not get what you want. theresa may has said many things, she said that brexit would mean brexit and that no deal was better than a bad deal and that no prime minister with agree to separating northern ireland from the re st of separating northern ireland from the rest of the uk. sometimes what she says and does do not match. what should she do now? you feel that no deal is the most likely option? she should stick to her promises and manifesto commitments and speeches, which what we've heard of this agreement fails to do. trust is important in politics. if the document is accurate, then it will be difficult to say anything —— trust anything coming from downing street. some would say that when she lost her majority in the election,
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which was about brexit, that was a lwa ys which was about brexit, that was always going to be a much more difficult compromise than if she had a victory. the prime ministers said only a few weeks ago she said she would not separate northern ireland from the rest of the uk. it isn't since the election that things have changed, it is very recently, post—checkers, that we've seen a change in the government approach and the white flags have gone up all over whitehall. some say that northern ireland already have likely different regulatory checks, they have a different relationship with ireland from the rest of the uk. couldn't they accept some small differences? no, these differences have been agreed between us as a nation. there are some differences in the devolved agreements with wales and scotland also. this isn't a foreign organisation telling us what the relationship should be between great britain and northern ireland. the issue here is that some
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aspects of the single market may apply in northern ireland and they will be more controlled by dublin than they will be by belfast. it is improper to allow dublin to make the rules in northern ireland, it is a betrayal of the union. what arrangement would you have liked to see her negotiate? talk of canada plus, which wouldn't have necessarily resolve the border. there are many competing issues which is why we have ended up here. it is bizarre to get into a situation of the customs union where asa situation of the customs union where as a full member of the european union we had a straightforward mechanism for reading it, the exercise of article 50. now it appears we have to get permission of the european union to lead the customs union. a very eccentric way to negotiate. free trade is what i'd be in favour of, if you want it all its canada plus, that's a good way of phrasing it. do you agree with borisjohnson of phrasing it. do you agree with boris johnson that the of phrasing it. do you agree with borisjohnson that the deal, the
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d raft borisjohnson that the deal, the draft agreement as it looked, would mean that it would be better to stay in the eu because we would have some control over the rules?” in the eu because we would have some control over the rules? i can hear the great man's dulcet tones about three yards away at a competitive station and you can follow the ask him ina station and you can follow the ask him in a moment but i think what the government is negotiating isn't delivering an era friend and results to leave the european union. remaining in the eu isn't on the cards because that would be abandoning a democratic vote, reinforced by a general election where the labour party and conservative party said that the result of the referendum would be expected and the lib dems, who wanted to overturn it, saw their vote share decline. do you agree with some in the cabinet that leaving the eu is the most important thing, in march, we must leave and we can sort out the future relationship then? the backstop doesn't allow us to leave the customs union without the permission of the eu. it is a less ability to leave under these arrangements than
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we currently have, which doesn't seem to be wise or meet the requirements of what you're suggesting, leaving in any form and then settling the details. what next? i hope the cabinet will block it, if not, parliament. the deal is deeply unsatisfactory. is it the feeling among your colleagues that there are enough of them to block there are enough of them to block the deal if it is in these terms? they are only leaks, given to the irish broadcaster, as i've mentioned. there is growing opposition to these proposals. thank you. that is the reaction here and we must stress that these are not details that we have seen in this d raft details that we have seen in this draft text but as it is filtering out you can see a lot of activity behind me. these briefings from people like jacob rees—mogg, from a grouping within parliament, a
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conservative grouping who are very much from the eurosceptic wing and not happy with any sense that the uk would be closely aligned with the eu. he does not feel that is a true brexit. people have talked about brexit. people have talked about brexit in name only, some will think thatis brexit in name only, some will think that is the case that northern ireland is treated differently. we heard from sammy wilson already clearly appeals from what he has seen that there are issues that are a problem for his party and of course the dup, a party with ten mps who mean that theresa may has a majority. without them she does not. the former foreign secretary boris johnson is here. we arejust at the former foreign secretary boris johnson is here. we are just at the stage where we are seeing some links details. that is right so we have to be careful but this has been well trailed for some months now and effectively a think it is pretty
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much what was agreed a few weeks back anyway. we are going to stay in the customs union, effectively stay in large parts of the single market and that means it is basso state stuff. for the first time in a thousand years this place, this parliament, will not have a say over the laws that govern this country. it isa the laws that govern this country. it is a quite incredible state of affairs. it will mean that we're having to accept rules and regulations from brussels over which we have no say ourselves. it is utterly u na cce pta ble to we have no say ourselves. it is utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy. it is not the right way forward. and the kicker is that not only do we remain in the customs union and in large parts of the single market but also we will not have protected our precious union occurs if you look at what they agreed today, and again there is the caveat, look at the reports,
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thenit is the caveat, look at the reports, then it is also accepted that the most then it is also accepted that the m ost rea d then it is also accepted that the most read customs and regulatory checks down the irish sea between great britain and northern ireland which currently do not exist for first time since partition, dublin under these proposals would have more say in some aspects of the government of northern ireland than london. so i do not see how you could support, democratic point of view, i do not see how unionists could support it or if you believe in the political and economic freedom of this country. so yes i'm going to vote against it. what about the rest of your former cabinet colleagues? i hope they consider it carefully a nd colleagues? i hope they consider it carefully and we will have to see exactly what it is and look at the terms. but it has been extensively trailed and i think the right thing for them to do would be to advise the prime minister that this would not be acceptable either to the
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house of commons or the british people because it fails to fulfil the mandate given by the british people in june 2016. the mandate given by the british people injune 2016. i think there is still lots of time. what is the alternative? that has been well set out by plenty of people in the last couple of years, not least the prime minister herself. as lancaster house onjanuary minister herself. as lancaster house on january the 17th 2017 she set minister herself. as lancaster house onjanuary the 17th 2017 she set out at very attractive vision for a free—trade deal, canada style free—trade deal, canada style free—trade deal, canada style free—trade deal coupled with all kinds of other intergovernmental partnerships which i think would be incredibly attractive to the people in this country and our friends and partners in the eu and that is the way forward. but people have said that does not solve this issue of ordered checks. i think as you will have heard people say many times before, i think the issue of the border in northern ireland has been
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escalated quite deliberately in order to produce this perverse result of the whole of the uk ends up result of the whole of the uk ends up remaining within the customs union and the single market thereby effectively frustrating the result of the referendum. and basically making nonsense of brexit. so i hope the cabinet will do the right thing andi the cabinet will do the right thing and i hope that they chuck it out. what happens next, if parliament rejects it, are you relaxed about as going out without a deal?|j rejects it, are you relaxed about as going out without a deal? i don't think anyone on either side of the channel would want a known deal. i do not think it is remotely necessary for the i think by the way that the negative consequences of known deal has been exaggerated, i think there would be effects and they would have to be managed, of course. but i do not think it is anything like as bad as people currently returned. but no one wants
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no dealjust as no one wants a hard border in northern ireland. it is possible to fix these problems put up possible to fix these problems put up people talk about difficulties in the short but talking aboutjobs and the short but talking aboutjobs and the economy. we have abundant time between now and the end of the limitation period, the end of 2020, to get this right and we can get it right. what we should do now is to scrap the current backstop arrangements in the current withdrawal agreement, and we have time to do that. and then have a withdrawal agreement which both sides say simply they do not want to have a hard order in northern ireland. the european commission joins with that ambition that no one wa nts a joins with that ambition that no one wants a hard order, you have withdrawal agreement setting that out. setting up all the other terms that need to be established. and then you go forward over the next
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couple of years to do the free—trade deal. that is what we should do. thank you very much. as you can see the reaction here, initial reaction a nyway the reaction here, initial reaction anyway from a certain group of those in the conservative party not happy with those leaks but they have seen and we have not seen the full text, cabinet ministers might now i'm getting to see that. so right now you spoke to several people in the past 45 minutes or so. what is your sense of people take before they actually see the full text as agreed, what is your sense of their expectations? as boris johnson said the direction of travel has been clear for some the direction of travel has been clearfor some time the direction of travel has been clear for some time and that is why we have had talk and mutterings from those in the cabinet now, not those who resigned like russjohnson, that they are unhappy with the direction of travel. but some decided to stay in the cabinet to see the detail which is what they are doing right now. that is such a difficult moment
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for the prime minister because for the first time those people are going to see the details and decide whether they back her or not. it is clear from people like jacob rees—mogg and boris johnson clear from people like jacob rees—mogg and borisjohnson that they will not be happy, sammy wilson as well, several mps now and then you have to go to those on the other side, the other wing of this argument, people like joe johnson resigning from a very different point of view because he feels we might as well to stay in the eu than have this agreement. it has always been the problem with the prime minister that you compromised so much that you do not please anyone at all. but then there are dozens of people who are loyal to the prime minister and do not want to see no deal scenario. that might just focus their minds enough to back care if that vote comes. -- back her. and we will be back at westminster for more details shortly. as we heard boris
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johnson and jacob rees—mogg and others pretty confident that they know what the shape of the deal is. a spokesman for michel barnierjust released a statement saying the latest in negotiations have been set up latest in negotiations have been set up by latest in negotiations have been set up by the commission vice president hu said that while the talks were making progress, they are not there yet. this reflecting the line from dublin a short time ago, uk cabinet will meet tomorrow according to michel barnier, and they will take. at the midday news conference. —— ta ke at the midday news conference. —— take stock. not the first time that we've heard that formulation of words today, not there yet. emma is in belfast. we heard from sammy wilson earlier and we've had a statement from nigel dodds about how ha rd statement from nigel dodds about how hard the deal will be for the what is your reading of it there? the dup
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have not yet had the chance to scrutinise the small print so we are all being cautious at the moment. of course the dup have been firing some very clear warning shots across the bow was over the last few weeks. a couple of weeks ago there was the threat to vote against the budget they did not like what was finally agreed, what pushy was going to be in the backstop text. do not forget this is all about the dup and their desire not to have northern ireland somehow pulled away from the rest of the uk, to be made a kind of different case where there is a border down the irish sea for the bat has been an absolute red line for the dup so they will look at this text carefully to see whether those red lines have been cross. but just a bit of a hint perhaps we had nigel dodds saying in the last hour or so that he thinks it will be a ha rd or so that he thinks it will be a hard sell for parliament. so i think what you might take from that is perhaps theresa may has managed to avoid the dup red lines are agreeing
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this uk wide customs agreement rather than any specific thing for northern ireland but that may be a step too farfor northern ireland but that may be a step too far for many brexiteers. it may keep the uk as a whole more closely tied to the uk than many brexiteers and the dup would like to see. thank you. david henning is a former uk government negotiator. thank you for waiting patiently. lots of stuff happening this afternoon. the shape of this deal, are you confident that it is as has been trailed in the last few weeks? it would be a great surprise if it was not, that there would be a large pa rt was not, that there would be a large part which is the uk wide element of the backstop, some review period to see if we are on track to replace this at some point, something to try to address the concerns of jacob
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rees mogg about being a vassal state. do not know, maybe there is more wiggle room that has allowed the prime ministers to say i'm going for this now. i know it is difficult but do you sense that to get to this point there may have been a bit more room than maybe some people had expected? i feel that to do this now and in the way that the irish and michel barnier have said not quite done, there may be something that the uk could do, get one final thing to get enough of the cabinet onside to get enough of the cabinet onside to support this. it is all speculation without seeing the text but the commission are very experienced negotiators put up and i think uk negotiators have been learning as well. this division between northern ireland, the republic and the rest of the uk, how do you think that that is meant to
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work and why do you think that formulation might get around the concerns of pretty much everyone? because until recently that seemed to be an impossible thing to set out. it will soon -- it will still be difficult. so the whole of the uk stays in the customs union for a period at least and in terms of regulations pertaining to trade, some of this was already specific to northern ireland in terms of for example animal welfare and this remains the case. that takes up a lot of the checks. in terms of other regulation what we may see is that the uk says we are going to voluntarily maintain the same regulatory levels as the eu at least for a period of a certain number of yea rs for a period of a certain number of years so for a period of a certain number of yea rs so we for a period of a certain number of years so we get over that. and then discuss the next stage. and then something to say that we will discuss intensely how we can make technology work. it would not surprise me to see some references in there to the technology solutions that boris johnson and in there to the technology solutions
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that borisjohnson and others have talked about. to try to develop those as fast as possible so this is not an open—ended check. we can see how this comes to an end. on the broader principle, we had boris johnson earlier repeating the point he's made several times, that we become under this proposed deal, rule takers. we have to obey the rules in many areas where we have no influence in areas where would now we do have influence. is that principled point is correct or a valid one? there was always going to bea valid one? there was always going to be a problem for the uk the future on how we handle rules made in the eu because they do affect our businesses. this is to a degree inevitable but to a degree it is exaggerated. there will be more scope of the uk in the future to set of rules in different areas so i think we're seeing a lot of exaggeration and certain amounts of truth but coded for the political
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leanings of whoever is saying it. thank you so much for coming in today. earlier we heard from the palace of westminster from boris johnson and sammy wilson of the dup and others. they included jacob rees—mogg as well who was the key figure is far as the main probe exit group is concerned. earlier our chief political correspondent got reaction from the chairman of that group and this is what he had to say. theresa may said many things, she said brexit would mean brexit and no deal was better than a bad deal and no prime minister would agree to separating northern ireland from the rest of the uk. sometimes what she says and what she does do not match. what you think she should do you think that no deal is now the most likely option? she should stick
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to her promises and manifesto commitments in her various speeches. which one we're proud of this agreement fails to do. trust in politics is important and if this document turns out to be accurate thenit document turns out to be accurate then it would be difficult to trust anything that comes out of downing street. some would say once the general election result meant that she lost her majority, a general election that was about brexit, that meant it was always going to be a more difficult compromise than it would have been if she had resounding victory. the prime ministers that long after the election result that she would not do anything that would separate northern ireland and the rest of the uk. things have changed a lot since the election but just uk. things have changed a lot since the election butjust very recently that we found a complete change in the government approach and basically white flags have gone up all over whitehall. that was jacob rees—mogg just a short time ago. and we also had contributions from some of the other parties at westminster.
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the shadow brexit secretary keir starmer included. given the shambolic nature of the negotiations this is likely to bid the deal for the country. we will wait to see the details but we've made it clear on a number of occasions if it does not meet our tests we will not vote for it. what would you be voting for, no deal? will wait to see the detail but we would never accept that the choice between whatever is cobbled together and no deal, that is not the outcome and will not be the outcome but wait to see the details. people will be looking to the labour party as the opposition to come forward with your proposals and so far you have said all options are on the table. but you need to be more specific than that? we seem, we said the number of occasions that we need customs union and i believe there is a majority for that position. but the prime minister has not been negotiating in the national interests but for what she thinks
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she can get faster cabinet. given the shambolic nature of negotiations this is unlikely to be the right dealfor the uk. this is unlikely to be the right deal for the uk. that was keir starmer a short time ago. well to discuss this further, the director—general of the british irish chamber of commerce is with me. if this follows what people have been widely trailing and we have a uk wide customs arrangements, with that for you be a valid answer to some of the concerns that have been raised? let's be careful, as has already been said we're not there yet but fingers crossed we are further along than we have been. and some people have worked extremely ha rd some people have worked extremely hard behind the scenes to get us to this stage. we need to see the details. the trailers coming out, it sounds like the basis for getting
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business done and certainly a basis for ensuring no border on the island of ireland which has been a long—held mission. but also trade openness as well. the trade between ireland and the uk, the uk is easily the biggest trading partnerfor ireland. so it matters a lot. we need to see the greatest possible openness. what has been talked about in terms of the new form of custom partnership with the necessary accoutrements for that, is definitely the basis, subject to the details. what would it mean in practical terms for those doing trade today, what could be the practical implications? for a start if you just think about the sheer volume of north south trade today, recognising that northern ireland is pa rt recognising that northern ireland is part of the uk as a whole, so a lot of their trade rose to the uk. the
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greater part of the rest goes to or through the republic of ireland and for ireland the greater part of their exploits go through the uk or to the uk. so all of those shipments and people movements back and forth are at the base of ensuring that we deliver the daily needs of people. people in britain consuming irish food exports, and other exports. so those are the things that are at issue here and we need to see the details of the we're talking about a customs partnership which could take ca re of customs partnership which could take care of goods but we also need people based services accommodated in any dealas people based services accommodated in any deal as well. we underlined that this is a draft text, and it needs approval as parliamentary level. if that does not work out, if you get to know deal scenario, just
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speu you get to know deal scenario, just spell out the implications of that. no deal would be disastrous and eve ryo ne no deal would be disastrous and everyone is realising that that is what is at stake here so a huge amount turns on what can be agreed in the next couple of days or weeks. no deal woody to the dismantling of a thoroughly open state of affairs that has been in place for 40 years. it has enabled things that we take for granted, travel for business, for granted, travel for business, for leisure, for learning, the development of products that are composite of raw materials made on either or both islands. no deal would threaten all of that, adding delays and costs and uncertainty and businesses are already in a deeply uncertain place and that is why people are saying that this is threatening jobs in the uk and elsewhere. we need to reduce the level of uncertainty and restore the ability of business and job makers
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to start investing again and do what the eu membership of both jurisdictions has enabled while respecting the back that the uk will still leave the eu as it stands today. thank you very much. cabinet members are in fact going into downing street this evening. going in to individual meetings and being talked through things with the prime minister. david mundell of scotland secretary is one of them and he spoke to us a short time ago.|j think it is encouraging tourism potential agreement. numbers of cabinet will have the chance to look backin cabinet will have the chance to look back in detail this evening and there will be a special cabinet meeting tomorrow to reflect in what in that document. and encouraged but we need to look at the detail and see what is there and hopefully be ina see what is there and hopefully be in a position to take forward the deal. that is what the government
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has been looking for all the time to get the deal, negotiators have worked incredibly hard to get to this point. but we need to consider that in cabinet tomorrow. we also spoke to the dup sammy wilson. that in cabinet tomorrow. we also spoke to the dup sammy wilsonm that in cabinet tomorrow. we also spoke to the dup sammy wilson. it is up spoke to the dup sammy wilson. it is up to the prime minister as to whether or not she brings a deal which meets the requirements which have been set out notjust by ourselves and this is important, these are promises which she made because she recognised that the integrity of the uk was important and she has made them time and again. in the house and to us privately and to the public. and it is not just an privately and to the public. and it is notjust an issue for us, there are many of our own backbenchers from scotland concerned about separate treatment for northern ireland and the impact that would have on scotland and the demand for independence there and also many roman backbenchers who do not want
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to be tied into some kind of customs arrangements for ever, but want to know that if we do have to have a transition period until we get things, properarrangements transition period until we get things, proper arrangements put in place to facilitate trade, that we have the ability to walk out of those and we are the ones that make the decision. chris morris is back with me. a lot has happened since we last spoke. what is your take on things right now? we need to see a text, neither sammy wilson lord jacob rees—mogg nor you or i have seen that. that is one thing. secondly it is just a provisional agreement and there are as we've seen 20 of hurdles ahead. also worth remembering it will be a very long document, a lot of that we already know that things like the £39 billion plus divorce bill agreed several months ago. the basic agreement on citizens right agreed
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several months ago, it is the key paragraphs and keep its about the difficult parts, the irish backstop that i think people are going to be poring over once they see that. alongside this chunky document, it is significant that we will see this outline political declaration. people talk in terms of a blind brexit, that is the document that is supposed to persuade people both in cabinet and more broadly in the house of commons, that we will get some idea of where we are going. people argued that we are still at least fairly foggy because it will be sufficiently broad but no one can guarantee a definitive outcome. but it will set the terms for another big negotiation to come in the next few years if we leave the eu on schedule. we are talking about textual analysis, the details of the textual analysis, the details of the text when it emerges but one boris johnson appeared earlier he was
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talking in terms of the broad principles, the big ideas that clearly he thinks will appeal to the public at large. he says it is not a good deal goes we have to obey rules that we have no influence over. that is not what we voted for. and that ina way is not what we voted for. and that in a way is is not what we voted for. and that inawayisa is not what we voted for. and that in a way is a much clearer argument and above and beyond the kind of detail we're talking about. and i think a big challenge for the government not to frame this in terms of the legal details. we need to know what they are but what is the big picture and the selling point. and people i think on the remaining side will be asking how this deal is better than the relationship we have now. i think that will be quite a difficult question to answer. but part of the a nswer question to answer. but part of the answer will be if you like in the fudge of this outline political declaration because you can read into that what you will. there will bea into that what you will. there will be a brighter future contained into that what you will. there will be a brighterfuture contained in that, trust us, we're going to move
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forward. so politically think it will be difficult, the cabinet will be difficult but in particular getting any agreement through the house of commons will be extremely tricky. we mentioned boris johnson, here is what he had to say earlier. we are going to stay in the customs union on the steel and effectively in large parts of the single market and that means that it is bad for state stuff. for the first time in a thousand years this parliament will not have a say over the laws that govern this country. it is a quite incredible state of affairs. it will mean we're having to accept rules and regulations from brussels over which we have no say ourselves. it is utterly unacceptable to anybody who believes in democracy, it is not right way forward. and the kicker is not only are we going to remain in the customs union and large parts of the customs union and large parts of the single market, but also we will
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not have protected our precious union. the cost if you look at what they have agreed today, and again they have agreed today, and again the caveat is look at the report, it is also accepted that they must beat customs and regulatory checks down the irish sea between great britain and northern ireland which currently do not exist for the first since partition dublin under these proposals would have more say in some aspects of the government of northern ireland than london. i do not see how you can support that from democratic point of view, i do not see how unionists can support it andi not see how unionists can support it and i do not see how you could support it if you believe in the political and economic freedom of this country. so i will vote against it. boris johnson there a short time ago. more on this on bbc news at six coming up injust a few minutes. but before that i look at the
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we have a lot of sunshine today across the uk, quite different to yesterday when we had so many showers. now we have this low— pressure showers. now we have this low—pressure bringing some further rain through the course of this evening and tonight. but for many it isa dry evening and tonight. but for many it is a dry rush—hour and to the south and east it stays dry through the night. but wales getting some heavy downpours through the small hours. another mild might, temperatures in double figures for many, just a bit colder in the far north—east of scotland. wednesday morning we start with sunshine to the south and progressively through the day the drier weather pushes further north of the skies clearing, sunshine for wales and the north of england through the afternoon. more cloud around for northern ireland and
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parts of scotland and again temperatures favourable for the time of year. the brexit divorce — british and eu negotiators finally agree on proposals for how the uk should leave the european union. do you think you'll be able to accept this deal? the prime minister is calling in cabinet ministers one by one tonight to discuss the text before a full cabinet meeting tomrrow afternoon. after months of doubts and difficulties, theresa may's top team seems finally poised to agree a d raft seems finally poised to agree a draft deal of how we leave the eu. we'll have all the latest reaction from westminster and brussels. also tonight: more than 200 people are still missing after the deadliest wildfires in california's history — at least 44 people are known to have died. a sharp rise in the number of children being excluded from school — and most are coming from schools in poorer areas — we have a special report.
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