hello and welcome to bbc news. i'm lewis vaughan jones. a report from the us government says climate change will likely cost the country hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century, shrinking the size of the us economy by 10%, if action isn't taken. the report is at odds with president trump's policies. he has repeatedly cast doubt on the fact that man—made climate change is real, despite overwhelming scientific evidence. james cook reports. this, say many scientists, is what climate change looks like. in recent years, california has seen bigger, deadlier and more destructive wildfires than ever before. during a cold snap in washington this week, president trump tweeted, whatever happened to global warming? now, his own government experts have answered the question. it is here, they say. its effects are serious, and without dramatic change, they will be catastrophic. already, says the report, more frequent and intense storms like hurricane harvey, which ravaged houston and texas,

are destroying property and may damage critical infrastructure such as bridges, power plants and oil refineries. crop yields and labour productivity will decline. there will be a rise in the spread of tropical disease. the poorest americans will be ha rdest—hit. one of the things that's quite striking about the report, for example, is that we could see a future where the south—eastern parts of the united states experience forest fire seasons that look like what happens in the west right now. and the real harm of a forest fire is notjust a conflagration. it's how people — whether they know how to respond to them. you know how to respond to them if you've been through the seasons again and again and again, but it's something that people in the south—east haven't experienced before, so we know that it could potentially have even greater impact. the scientists say substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are essential, and they do report some progress. but president trump has taken a sharply different approach to his predecessor, barack obama, championing coal, oil and gas and rolling back environmental regulations. without major, urgent action, says the report, the impacts

of climate change will soon cascade into every corner of american life. the spanish prime minister, pedro sanchez, says he still hasn't been given the guarantees he wants from britain on gibraltar, suggesting that a summit in brussels on sunday to approve the brexit deal could be called off. spain wants a greater say in the territory at its southern tip after the uk leaves the european union. our correspondent adam fleming says the issue could prove a real stumbling block. the last few days, the spanish government has been looking for written guarantees about how the final brexit deal will apply in gibraltar. in the last couple of hours, the spanish prime minister has done a news conference in havana, in cuba, where he says he has not yet received those guarantees, and if he doesn't get them, he does not think sunday's planned

brexit summit should go ahead. translation: regarding gibraltar, let me tell you, i insist that the guarantees are not enough. therefore, spain maintains its veto on the brexit deal. if there is no deal, it's obvious that what will happen is that the european council will most likely not take place. now, behind the scenes, solutions are being sought. some eu diplomats are getting quite annoyed with madrid, because they think they're making a mountain out of a molehill for domestic political reasons. and, having said all that, the eu is pushing ahead with all the preparations you would expect for a summit taking place. for example, donald tusk, the president of the european council, who will chair it, has invited theresa may for a last—minute pre—summit meeting tomorrow night. talking to diplomats and texting them in brussels tonight, the sense is that this will be solved, but this last—minute hurdle being thrown up by the spanish government was not in anyone's plan. let's get some of

the day's other news: china says the militant attack on its consulate in karachi will not deter its investment in infrastructure projects in pakistan. no consular staff were hurt in the attack, but two pakistani police officers, two locals and the three gunmen were killed. a separatist group, the balochistan liberation army, which opposes chinese influence in pakistan, said it carried out the assault. hundreds of people have attended the funeral of the well—known syrian radio host and activist raed fares, who was killed by gunmen in the rebel—held province of idlib. he died along with a fellow activist, hammoud juneid, in the north—western town of kafranbel. he and his radio station had been targeted byjihadist groups in the past. real madrid have denied

that their captain, sergio ramos, broke anti—doping rules after the 2017 champions league final. the german news magazine der spiegel claims the spain international tested positive for the anti—inflammatory drug dexamethasone, which is only banned if testers are not informed of its use. uefa accepted an apology from ramos, who blamed the club's doctor for the mix—up. the national crime agency has issued a strongly worded warning to the organised gangs which it says are behind the recent surge in attempts to cross the channel to britain. so far this month, close to 100 would—be migrants have been stopped trying to enter the uk along the south coast. jon hunt has this report. eight men claiming to be iranian

we re eight men claiming to be iranian were brought ashore at dover by border force officials. a border force coastal patrol boat intercepted them across the six miles south—east of dover in a dinky. the home office said the men we re dinky. the home office said the men were medically well and will now be interviewed by immigration staff. immigration from official sources is scarce, and they don't actively release information about these operations. —— information from. but we are told that searches continued throughout the day with the reports of other vessels in the english channel. we need to see the home 0ffice channel. we need to see the home office and the french authorities work together to put a stop to this trafficking network. nearly 100 refugees have been coming across the channel in recent weeks. it is only a matter of time before there is a tragedy and that is why the home 0ffice tragedy and that is why the home office in particular needs to get a grip and have a plan. yesterday, 13 men and one woman were intercepted in two dinghies of the dover coast in two dinghies of the dover coast in two separate incidents. and the french authorities pursued 11 people

ina dingy french authorities pursued 11 people in a dingy whose engine had broken down in the early hours. the french brett hundley said the recent surge in attempts by migrants is due to the weather and increased port security. but departure from the eu next year is also playing a part. translation: in our working hypotheses, the impending brexit has made us think it is possible that migrants believe borders are going to be tougher with brexit. so it is rather a working theory that we think brexit could be pushing them to cross now. the national crime agency was working with the border force in dover today and said these incidents are in the main fuelled by organised reality. the home office as it up patrols along the south—east coast. jon hunt, bbc news. police in london say new tactics designed to stop moped crime — including deliberately knocking offenders off their bikes — have led to a sharp fall in recorded offences. scotland yard says moped robberies have dropped by over a third since specialist teams were set up to tackle the problem. you may find some footage in tom symonds' report disturbing.

as a crime, it can be lightning fast or deeply intimidating. for the met, the scooter gangs have become a big problem. the response? a new specialist team with high—powered, slimline motorbikes. and a stinger system which punctures the tyres of scooter criminals, then retracts to let police cars pass. but it's also about this. yes, that's a police car driving into a scooter rider, deliberately. they are trained to do it at as low a speed as possible, but it is risky. it's a high impact tactic and therefore our riders and our drivers will be considering the risk to the rider they're pursuing, the risk to the public and the risk to themselves before deciding upon that course of action. but, in more cases than not,

it is safer to bring that pursuit to a close than it is to continue to allow that rider driving dangerously through london. this specialist team has made 63 stops like this without serious injury. he gets up. but the police watchdog is now investigating three other incidents elsewhere in the met. right, right, right. officers have to justify their decision to continue a pursuit in real time over the radio. contrary to what some criminals believe, whether or not they are wearing a helmet is not necessarily a reason to stop the chase. well, this is an absolute myth. if they take their crash helmet off, they think we won't pursue. they need to know that we will. it is for their safety. crime is always changing and the police believe that this one has been increasing because we are walking around with expensive things like phones, which are very valuable to thieves. but you can add to that the fact that it's an efficient crime to carry out. one scooter can be used for a string of offences. these tactics are not entirely

new but they are now being used regularly and the met says they have helped cut scooter crime by 36%. tom symonds, bbc news, at new scotland yard. care for people who arrive in a and e departments with a mental health crisis can vary widely across the country, resulting — in some cases — in vulnerable patients slipping through the net — with disastrous consequences. that's according to a new report by government advisors, who say that official guidance is not applied consistently. alison holt has been to birmingham to look at how a&e and mental health services are working there. hello, rapid assessment team? james cawley is a psychiatric nurse based at the heartlands hospital in birmingham. so, it sounds like he's having hallucinations. audio—visual hallucinations. the call is from accident and emergency, where a young man has been brought in because he appears to be having a mental health crisis. james needs to see him quickly to work out how to help him. today's report says in too many

places, this sort of rapid response simply doesn't happen. is he under arrest under order 136? no. they don't have any records for the patient brought in by police. in the packed emergency department, james has to now build up a picture of what is going on. hi, i'mjames, i'm from the rapid response team. how often is it you are coming down here having to assess someone quickly? what, per day? it can be basically up to 12, 13, 1a times a day. it varies day to day, but it can be very, very busy. people come to a&e because they need that immediate help and support and sometimes people are not sure where to go so a&e is always one of the first port of calls. but the healthcare safety investigation branch says whether you get support like this depends on where you live. according to this report, nearly two thirds of people arriving at emergency departments with an urgent mental health problem don't get the help they need. and even when there is a psychiatric liaison team,

they are not always called. that's him at my mum's house. painfully familiar forjacob knox—hook. his 22—year—old brotherjosh was taken to their local a&e after cutting his wrists. he told staff he was suicidal, but the psychiatric team was not called, and he was able to walk out unchallenged. his body was found a month later. i know that it's a very busy place. but i still feel like, if someone was presenting in the way that my brother was, that is the biggest red flag ever to say, quickly, i need to call the psychiatric liaison, get someone to come and see him now. there is not time to waste in that kind of situation. back at heartlands hospital, the psychiatrist has arrived to see the young man who is hallucinating. he has become increasingly unsettled. he was getting quite agitated. his behaviour escalated quickly. all right, 0k. it's decided to move him to a mental health unit. hopefully a good assessment in the place of safety,

followed by admission for a period of time. it was professor george tadross who pioneered the idea of a&e—based psychiatric teams. he says it is vital that someone in a crisis sees the right specialist. if someone comes with a heart attack or broken legs, you expect nothing, but they be assessed by the people who are fully trained in this. in mental health, wejust need to have exactly the same. a quick decision should help the young man with his recovery. the government says more money is being put into ensuring mental health is placed on an equalfooting with physical health. alison holt, bbc news, birmingham. this is bbc news, the headlines: a us government report warns that climate change will cost the country hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century. questions from spain over gibraltar‘s status throws doubt over sunday's meeting on britain's proposed eu—brexit deal. let's stay with that story now —

and theresa may heads to brussels on saturday with her brexit deal under threat at home and abroad. not only is she facing a continuing challenge from spain over gibraltar, but she may still be struggling to sell her plans to the british public. with that in mind, she took to the airwaves on friday, telling a bbc radio phone—in that if parliament votes against her, there will only be "more division and uncertainty". here's our deputy political editorjohn pienaar. a warning his report contains flashing images. her rebellious mps won't listen to her message on brexit. time to talk to the country. a 5live news special, with emma barnett and theresa may. i think for most people out there, actually, theyjust want us to get on with it. mrs may is talking now over the heads of political opponents and tory mutineers, trying to tune in to public impatience with the point—scoring,

with a political game she may well lose. i'm going to be explaining the deal to people up and down the country, because i think this is important. it's not just about the mp5 in westminster looking at the deal. it's about people across the country understanding what the deal is about. so that's my focus. so no plans to resign? my focus is on getting this deal through. then, this blunt warning to parliament, to brexiteer mps and ministers — no point defeating her brexit plan in hope of getting a better one. if we were to go back to the european union and say, "well, we didn't — people didn't like that deal, can we have another one?" we won't get — i don't think they're going to come to us and say, "we'll give you a better deal." for the former remainer, michael had a tough question. without any political waffle or convoluted answer, just between the two of us, what, in your honest opinion, is betterfor the uk — your deal, or the deal we had if we'd stayed in the eu?

you say are we better off, better off... actually, it's a different sort of environment, and a different approach that we'll be taking to things. so not quite yes, and not quite no. brexiteers know what they don't like. on air, too, the former brexit secretary who quit negotiations and the cabinet, convinced nothing is worse than mrs may's deal. well, i'm not going to advocate staying in the eu, but if you just presented me terms, this deal or eu membership, because we'd effectively be bound by the same rules but without the control or voice over them, yes, i think this would be even worse than that. the chancellor is in belfast tonight, charming the democratic unionists who shore up the government in the commons. they are threatening to tear up that deal, because they see mrs may's plan as treating britain and northern ireland differently, and a threat to the union. if she is successful in parliament, and there's no evidence that she is going to be successful in parliament, then of course we will have to revisit the confidence and supply agreement.

that agreement was about giving national stability. it was acting in the national interest and delivering on brexit. i declare this brexit mini—mart open. a stunt to suggest brexit could come at a cost. more on the labour side are buying into the idea of a fresh referendum. what i'd like to do ideally, of course, is have a general election so we can vote this shower out. i speak as a labour politician. if we can't have that option, i think, you know, the british public for the first time, for the first time, should have a say whether they accept the outcome of these negotiations, with the option of staying in the eu. the odds are that a large number of mps on all sides are stacked up against theresa may's brexit plan. today she is insisting, if her plan is defeated in the commons, there is no chance of getting a better one. but tory brexiteers, including some in cabinet, disagree. they may not want a leader who is convinced they have no chance of success. as it is, we're all watching and waiting to find out. will this historic plan be pulled up short, stopped in its tracks? it's looking like it. but until then, mrs may will try to make it work. downing tools is

simply not an option. john pienaar, bbc news, westminster. all of vauxhall‘s 1,100 unionised workers at its ellesmere port car plant have gone on strike to protest against planned job cuts. the company is planning to cut 241 posts at the site in cheshire in 2019. the unions say workers are frustrated after three previous rounds of job closures in recent years. i'm shopping is changing our shopping traditions and it may not be good news for the hyde street but many small and medium—size firms are spotting an opportunity. the black friday orders are flying off the shelves. it's a small warehouse but boy, do they do big business. this firm in colchester specialises

in selling excess stock online and they did £6 million worth of sales last year. well, we are growing at about 20% per annum, which is terrific. you know, we've got this chance of the smaller players, as such, being able to compete with those bigger players because of the ubiquity and democratisation that the internet offers. would you ever open a shop? no. ian doesn't need one, when we are doing so much more shopping online, wherever we are. it is a huge shift, driven by technology, which isn't just empowering us customers. thousands of new businesses have also been springing up and are thriving. hi, emma. i'm andy from dock & bay. we sell these quick—dry beach towels. we've been going just three years. we are hoping to sell over £4 million worth of these this year. we are the mo bros and we sell premium beard care products.

we started four years ago and this year our revenue hit {1.6 million. hi, we are tillyanna from the valleys in monmouthshire. we sold over £1 million worth of products last year and we are going like the clappers for black friday. there are more than 100,000 small and medium—sized businesses trading on ebay, amazon and not on the high street. amazon's uk sellers exported more than £2.3 billion worth of goods last year, an increase of nearly a third on the previous 12 months. ebay has more than 1,000 businesses doing sales of more than £1 million a year. in just a few years, a whole new way of retailing has emerged. the boss of ebay has picked his top

sellers and says why small on line terms of force to be with. these brands you might not have heard of but fundamentally, they are big concerns, they are employing people, they are creative, agile and great trading businesses and is a great example of british ingenuity and business building that's happening despite all the headlines of what is happening on the high street. there were some queues today. guess who this is? amazon, a pop—up shop. online players still think the high street has a role to play in pulling shoppers in. emma simpson, bbc news. the tv adventurer, bear grylls has set himself another challenge — as a volunteer. having worked with the uk scout association for a number of years, he's now teaming up with the united nations and the world scout organisation to interest young people in sustainable development. the bbc‘s nada tawfik spoke to him at the un in new york. the scouts is driven by the young

people, that alonso munsch. this is reacting the young people all over every corner of the world, saying we wa nt to every corner of the world, saying we want to help, but to do something good. we want to do something about these sustainable development goals but we are just saying, let's promote peace and protect our planet and help people prosper and try and reduce poverty and young people are going to be the people who drive those things, it is not going to be us, it's going to be the young people, all we do is try and scout leaders and facilitate them and say who is going to do this together? what are some of those projects and where do you think you can make an impact in sustainable development goals? it's notjust a few projects, there are millions of these local scout groups making a difference in oui’ scout groups making a difference in our communities. i was looking at some of the stories coming in, scouts and some the most violent areas of colombia providing a positive alternative to kids joining gangs to nowjoin the scouts. there

is another great one in sue dann we re is another great one in sue dann were scouts were teaching schools how to make their water able to be drunk. —— the sue dann. the scouts have delivered a billion hours of services. it's hard to believe. we ta ke services. it's hard to believe. we take that and put another 3 billion hours to it. that's actually how you change the world, at a local level but on a massive scale.|j change the world, at a local level but on a massive scale. i know the scouts has put emphasis notjust on physical health but also mental health. recently, you are open about your own battles against anxiety. i'm not fearless. i have many fears and anxieties but i've also learned the best way over our fears is one, held people who really love you and a lwa ys held people who really love you and always move towards them, don't want oui’ always move towards them, don't want our fears. scouts, you always move towards them, don't want ourfears. scouts, you train always move towards them, don't want our fears. scouts, you train from a young age to know that together we are stronger and brave and it's all

about facing the difficult things and doing it. scouts, always shining and doing it. scouts, always shining a light around the world that sense of courage and kindness and never giving up. the prime minister's paid tribute to a man from surrey man who's thought to be the oldest campanologist in the world. dennis brock — who turns 100 next week — has been ringing the bells at st. mary's church in sunbury—on—thames for 87 years. victoria cook went to meet him. keep going. this is the moment they've all been waiting. being able to accompany dennis brock as he rings in his 100th birthday. thank you all. so what's the secret? keeping active and i suppose, i'm really blessed with fairly good health. i get aches and pains, of

course, but i just health. i get aches and pains, of course, but ijust think if i have a ringing of the night, i get rid of it. dennis remember cycling to his bellringing duties as a young man. his all in daschle is being based at st mary ‘s in sunbury—on—thames, a commitment of 90 years but he never thought it would be possible. so many dangerous things happen in my life. wartime, of course. i didn't think i'd live another hour. and i was very ill as a boy. i was very delicate. the doctor said, that boy is not going to make old bones. i'm 100. old bones that can still managed a tricky stares from the bell tower. he is at the heart of the community. he is one of the old est the community. he is one of the oldest men left ear. he is a great blessing to us all. he is much loved and we would be lost without him.

dennis's postman has also been busy today. i've not had a hundredth birthday before. happy birthday to you. this is in the early celebration to dennis this weekend. tomorrow, the bells will ring out here for three hours and will be run by people that dennis is taught over the years and on sunday, a full—service and celebration in his honour. bellringing isn'tjust a hobby for dennis. he says he is made friends for life. it is a close community and it is very, very nice and it's very warm and age doesn't seem and it's very warm and age doesn't seem to matter. happy birthday to you. victoria cook, bbc news. happy birthday to him. hello. the week ended on a pretty gloomy note for many, and i'm not expecting things to brighten up spectacularly through the weekends.

yes, some of us will see sunshine but many more will be stuck with cloud, it will feel chilly and for some areas, a bit of rain in the forecast. the satellite shows quite a lot of cloud streaming towards urban areas, this cloud is ready bringing some heavy downpours of rain across the south—west of england, even the odd flash of lightning and thunder, and we keep potential for wet weather across the south—west but perhaps across other southern counties of england as well as we go through saturday. uncertainty about how far north that rain will get. it looks most likely that it will say to the south of the m4 corridor. so if you are in the london area, the south midlands, you may see a little bit of rain, on balance it should stay just about dry, temperatures around nine degrees. some rain could fringe into south wales but for the midlands, north—west england, south—west scotland and for a time across northern ireland a chance of seeing breaks in the cloud and some sunny spells. for north—east england and the eastern side of scotland we will keep cloud and some showery rain and with that easterly breeze across the country, top temperatures no better

than 7—10 degrees. some rain is likely to continue across southern counties of england across saturday evening, elsewhere dry weather, some rain in drizzle coming into eastern areas, we keep that easterly breeze feeding in cloud, the best of the clear skies in the west. if it does stay clear where you are there may be a touch of frost, most areas will stay frost free. for sunday high pressure in charge, but this frontal system threatens to throw a bit of a spanner in the works across the south—east corner. uncertainty about this but clipping into kent and sussex, we could see a little bit of rain. it may come a touch further north and west, but for many sunday is largely dry. a lot of cloud in the east, the best of the brightness further west, but fairly chilly. on monday we keep our weather coming in from the east, not an especially strong breeze but a cool one bringing lots of cloud, patchy rain in the east, some sunshine to the west and those temperatures stuck in single digits for all of us. and then a bit of a change as we had deeper into the new week because high—pressure retreats and the low pressure in the atlantic

starts to wind itself up, a lot of white lines, a lot of isobars on the chart, that means it will be windy and at times wet. so tuesday another cool day, turning wet and windy on wednesday but also turning a bit milder.