the social network admitted to widespread interference from moscow. that's according to private emails seized by the uk parliament. the front page of the independent carries a warning from the united nations that countries throughout the world must slash emissions by five times their planned amount in the next 11 years if they are to avert disastrous global warming. the un says vanishing islands, widespread species extinctions and extreme weather have all been predicted under even the most optimistic climate predictions. and, finally, on the bbc news website two swedish mums have persuaded 10,000 people to commit to not taking any flights in 2019 in an effort to tackle climate change. direct emissions from aviation account for about 3% of the eu's total greenhouse gas emissions, according to the european commission. so let's begin.

with me is rebecca harding, who's chief execitive of coriolis, a data services provider. —— executive. if i can say that exactly. 0k. and one area you are an expert in, you are the biggest morning, geopolitical risk, gauging that, something you research for your clients, and these stories are about that this morning. let's start with the financial times, this is a story we were talking about yesterday, donald trump's comments talking of increased tariffs in the new year. there is so much expectation about his meeting with president xijinping at expectation about his meeting with president xi jinping at the end of this week and the hope that this might be escalated trade war. he was putting it out yesterday actually no, not at all. is it him doing his pre— meeting upping the anti? no, not at all. is it him doing his pre- meeting upping the anti? donald trump doesn't do this very well, he is good on a i—to—i basis and on twitter but he doesn't do... he is

good at creating new stories. he is a bilateral guy. the 620 is. he is rattling the sabre about putin. xi is actually in spain talking about how these partnerships are growing. he is making sure that there are strong bonds between china and spain. the chinese are playing the long game here. they are waiting for him to throw his toys out of the pram to see what comes back again. they can afford to play a long game. that is not that there are not risks in the economy. there are. that is well documented. this has been going on for a long time. all of the assessments say that while this will make supply chains reorient around the world, this trade war, if it

goes on, it is unlikely to have a really big impact. it is unlikely to have a really big impact. what would be the impact if donald trump follows through on the threat, increasing tariffs in the new year on all goods coming out of china to the united states, which will include things like iphones, la pto ps, include things like iphones, laptops, all of those things — the us consumer is one of the biggest losers? the us consumer will be a big loserfrom all of losers? the us consumer will be a big loser from all of this for the simple reason prices will go up. look, this is my central argument, no one wins in a trade war. there is this general uncertainty in the world which is beginning to slow down economic growth, it is beginning to have an effect on foreign direct investment. in the end it ends up hitting the pockets of people who buy these things because tariffs have an impact on prices of cars, they in pack prices... look at general motors. absolutely. general motors is potentially a byproduct of that uncertainty as well. we are in a

situation at the moment where there is an economic crisis created through the use of trade if you like asa through the use of trade if you like as a tool of foreign policy. so that is one of the big stories and it won't go away. talking of foreign policy, there is a lot riding on this 620 policy, there is a lot riding on this g20 summit in argentina because of course president trump is saying he probably won't go forward with the meeting with president putin of russia, citing ukraine and what happened on sunday as a reason why. politico is looking at this in detail. you have done a lot of analysis on russia and how russia behaves, again playing an international game on many, many levels. so, russia has a really clever strategy in that it fights a hybrid, or an all means war, and it has this concept of implausible deniability, where it always has military power on its side, and some legal ambiguity and ran all of this. and what we are seeing... 0ne legal ambiguity and ran all of this. and what we are seeing... one of the

reasons why donald trump will review this is he will want to review his advisers' legal case for the action that has been taken at the moment, because, to some extent, the straights and the area that is being disputed at the moment, to some extent that is actually ukraine at fault, too, because they are meant to be sharing access. into the kerch straights. so the issue is the extent to which this is escalating. russia has been poking at ukraine for a while. this is not a new story in that sense. there was a clear escalation on sunday with the seizure of the four ships and the taking in of lots of ukrainian navy staff etc. exactly, and ukraine now has a military curfew. the danger of this is escalation. if you look at how this is affecting sentiment in europe, for example, so germany is

very worried about this. and then you've got finland and sweden and denmark and norway. they are very worried about this as well. so the risks of miscalculation, the risks for the trump administration of coming down too hard or not hard enough are very high. and of course everybody is watching closely his relationship with putin, between... because of mueller, exactly. his election campaign and russia's interference, which moves us neatly onto the telegraph business section, facebook suspicions as early as 2014, revealed by the uk parliament, they asked for certain documents to become public. what does it tell us about facebook? it tells us several things about data generally with facebook in particular. so the challenge that the world has never really co m e challenge that the world has never really come to terms with is who owns the date that you supply onto platform like facebook —— data. 0r

even as we move forward, with banks etc et cetera so this is about ownership of data and then control of that data and regulation of that data and privacy. to some extent, regulations like gdp have come in, the date protection legislation, have come in after the horse has bolted. it is not good for facebook not to have known not have published, its findings from 2014. will it add to the argument that facebook has to be regulated and the likes of google and others, that actually an exterior federal organisation, or international body has to keep an eye on facebook? this is beginning to come to a crunch point, yes, because of privacy breaches that are happening all the time, and the processes of monitoring that and the internal regulations and self—regulation that hasn't worked and now we are in a position where we have to create

international standards for this. easier said than done. absolutely. climate change, the un report is not good reading at all. they are saying we have to slash emissions five times the current target, and the current targets are tough to hit already. yes, and there is an eu report saying it will cost nearly 300 billion euros to address and get to this zero emissions target, so the world is at a tipping point and i think it is fair to say that the plastics debate and the campaign against plastics and now climate change, because of the warm summer we have had, the wildfires, we are beginning to have it pointed out on a daily basis that things are changing. key political leaders are not on board, namely the us president, and that is critical, isn't it, meeting these targets as the globe, not just isn't it, meeting these targets as the globe, notjust individual nations. exactly and a big thing is actually that we have seen a

breakdown in the multilateral structures which make it much harder, and it is the politicisation of the environment, weaponisation, we are not able to come to a global agreement. individuals are taking action and our viewers care about this passionately, they are in touch saying they feel that the swedish moms who want to give up flying for a year have 10,000 others on board, that kind of radical action is required. absolutely, and very high—profile things. you know, maybe using hangouts on facebook and different ways of communicating in the meanwhile because there are more environmentally ways of doing things. it is a great initiative. thank you. it has been great to have you this morning. and thank you for your comments. see you soon. hello there. we've replaced our cold, dry weather now with something a lot more unsettled — wet,

windy and much milder conditions, which will be with us in fact for the next few days. now, through today this next area of low pressure means business. it's going to be quite a deep area of low, bringing gales and heavy rain. in fact, there could be some disruption to travel throughout today, so keep tuned to your bbc local radio for all the local updates there. now, we're starting the day off, though, on a pretty mild note. we've lost the overnight frost that we've seen for the last week or so. temperatures starting off around six to eight degrees. now, we're dragging this milder air from the azores on a south—westerly wind. might not feel so mild, though, because of the gales and the rain, but it really will be milder than what we've been used to. spells of pretty heavy rain through the morning moving northwards, follow followed by showery bursts of rain further south during the afternoon. and then an area of much heavier, persistent rain for scotland, where we could see some pretty high rainfall totals on the hills there. temperatures, double figures for all, as high as 14 or 15 across the south—east, but it's going to be very windy indeed. 60—65mph in exposure

across western coasts, and then later in the day closer to 70mph perhaps for the north—east of scotland and the northern isles. and it's a brief window of fine weather during wednesday evening before the next bout of wet and windy weather starts to spread into the south of the country as we head into the early part of thursday. now, there could be a very windy spell of weather across parts of wales and the western half of england through thursday morning, as this next little area of low pressure moves north—eastwards. and with it, again, a spell of pretty heavy rain, which will clear through. and by thursday afternoon we should see a little bit of brightness breaking out, just a few blustery showers, maybe heavy and thundery, across south—western areas. temperatures down a degree or so on wednesday's values, closer to nine to 13 degrees. as we end the week, low pressure still very much in charge. again, very windy, particularly across northern areas. as you can see, tightly packed isobars there. it's going to be i think a bright day on friday. most of the showers, blustery showers, will be across northern and western areas. and these will be increasingly wintry over the hills, as it will be a chillier day across the north.

but very blustery, again, with the risk of gales across scotland, maybe into the far north of england. blustery across the south, though not quite as windy as it will be further north. and you'll notice a little bit cooler, with temperatures of nine to ten or 11 celsius. as we head on in towards the weekend, we maintain an unsettled theme, quite blustery, strong south—westerly winds. again, fairly mild across england and wales. turning a bit cooler, though, for scotland and northern ireland. good morning. welcome to breakfast with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. 0ur headlines today: the financial impact of brexit. the government's official figures on how leaving the eu will affect the economy are published today. we'll speak to the chancellor. unsafe and understaffed. england's worst performing mental health trust is given weeks to improve by inspectors. more than 100 migrants have made journeys in small boats across the channel in the last three weeks. we'll be live on the dover coast. good morning — upping their game.

scammers are getting more sophisticated and more persistent. text, email and phone scams are up 20% this year. so how can you avoid falling victim?