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tv   BBC News at One  BBC News  November 28, 2018 1:00pm-1:31pm GMT

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the government predicts the uk economy will take a huge hit worth billions of pounds after leaving the european union. a range of projections for different brexit scenarios, predicts the economy will shrink in every case — compared to staying in the eu. but the prime minister insists her plan is a good option. our deal is the best deal available forjobs and our economy, that allows us to honour the referendum, and realise the opportunities of brexit. this analysis does not show that we'll be poorer in the future than we are today. the government economic service forecasts published today are actually meaningless because there's no actual deal to model, just a 26—page wish list. our how could the government's forecasts affect mrs may's attempts to sell her brexit deal to the public? also this lunchtime: a survivor of child exploitation has called for a change in the law, claiming her local council offered her rapist a role in her son's life.
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i want a change in law to ensure that no rapist can access children conceived through rape and abuse. i want a full investigation, not just into what's happened to my kids, but a national one. picking out a suspect in a crowd — the high—tech challenge for police using facial recognition technology. and he called himself "the world's oldest rebel" — harry leslie smith, the activist and campaigner, has died at the age of 95. and coming up on bbc news... jose mourinho says relief prompted this reaction, as a late goal secured manchester united's qualification to the knockout stage of the champions league. good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one.
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a major government review of the economic impact of leaving the european union suggests britain will be poorer, under all possible brexit scenarios, than if it remained in the eu. the study predicts the prime minister's own proposals could cost the economy as much as £100 billion over 15 years, with gdp 3.9% lower. if britain leaves without a deal, it could cost the country twice as much, with gdp 9.3% lower. the analysis could complicate theresa may's attempts to sell her brexit deal to the public, with opposition and parties and scores of her own mps threatening to vote her plans down. but in the commons today she insisted her deal was the best available. here's our political correspondent, alex forsyth. on and on and on and on the deal.
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yesterday she was in wales at an agricultural show before heading to northern ireland —— the prime minister has been trying to celebrate the deal across the country. today she was in scotland seeing her plan works for the uk. but first she had to face mps, just as the government published analysis of the impact of brexit on the economy. questions to the prime minister! the government economic service forecasts public today —— published today are actually meaningless, because there is no actual deal to model, just 26 page wish list. the chancellor, however, said her deal will make people worse off. does the prime minister agree? he doesn't appear to be here this morning to be consulted. as ever, the prime minister defended her deal. what we see behind the analysis we have published today, andindeed analysis we have published today, and indeed the chancellor recognised this this morning, is that our deal
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is the best deal available forjobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. the government analysed different brexit outcomes and found the prime minister's deal would be betterfor the economy than no deal, but overall a ny the economy than no deal, but overall any brexit would make us poorer than staying in the eu. go yes, it's true, if we are only looking at the economic benefits, remaining in the eu is a slightly better economic outcome -- yes, it's true. the prime minister's deal gives the deal remarkably close to the benefits, economically, or staying in the eu, while having all the political benefits of being independent of the eu. that's why we think this is such a good deal. brexiteers claimed the government was using flawed forecasts to scare people into backing the prime minister's plan. i'm afraid that everyone must be ready for project theatre. settle— mac.
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everyone must be ready for project theatre. settle—mac. in a desperate attempt to reverse the results of this -- this —— project fear 2.0. this -- project fear 2.0. kjaer in less tha n this -- project fear 2.0. kjaer in less than two weeks mps will decide whether to back the brexit deal. there is a furious kjaer fight going on between those who want different outcomes. expect this economic analysis to be seized on by both sides —— there is a furious fight going on between. alex forsyth, bbc news, westminster. kjaer what are the figures suggesting? our economics correspondent, andy verity, is with me to look at the figures. what are they suggesting? kjaer they
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reckon this will be the hit to the economy under certain scenarios. this will be a hit to the economy 2.5 - 3.9% this will be a hit to the economy 2.5 — 3.9% smaller than it otherwise would have been 15 years from now, assuming we get something like the government's white paper, which came out injuly. government's white paper, which came out in july. we government's white paper, which came out injuly. we were not quite get that but the hope is we get something like it in terms of its effect on economic growth. that works out at about £100 billion roughly of what the economy is about now. looking at what they were seeing if we get no deal, this would bea seeing if we get no deal, this would be a massive hit to gdp, and it is like removing the output of the scotla nd like removing the output of the scotland from the uk economy, but while that sounds frightening you have to pay the broader numbers in mind here. by this time the economy would be worth about £2.5 trillion. so it as a percentage of that, and
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we have to bear in mind the big assumptions. now in full of migrants at all under these assumptions from the eu. and it is also all other things being equal. we need to remember what really affect the economy is not just remember what really affect the economy is notjust brexit but it is everything else, our industry is doing, productivity, and how the rest of the world is doing. many thanks, andy verity there. let's talk to our assistant political editor, norman smith, who's at westminster. how do you think these figures will affect theresa may desperately trying to sell her plan? the big moment for her selling operation because the linchpin of her case has been that her brexit deal not only delivers on the referendum, but safeguards that economy, and so in the commonsjust safeguards that economy, and so in the commons just know she was seeing under her deal no one will be poorer than they are today, a bit of hand.
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because what it doesn't address —— bit of a linguistic sleight of hand. it means wood is saying we will not be as wealthy as we would be if we had stayed in the eu —— what these figures are really saying is we will not be as wealthy. will it impact on the vote here? i suspect probably not. people are locked down here, brexiteers already describing these figures as project fear 3.0, and others seizing on sir philip hammond's remark, it means we will be getting you. but the line of team may, yes, we might be marginally worse off, but people will accept this as a deal that delivers on the referendum, en suite of movement, the common agricultural and fisheries policy, words the political gains outweigh the economic price, and this becomes more important because today —— in
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other words the political gains outweigh. and labour have signalled today they are moving ever closer to backing a second referendum, with the shadow chancellorjohn a macdonald seeing today if they cannot get the vote of no confidence they will move towards the so—called people's vote. norman at westminster, thank you. theresa may will be visiting glasgow this afternoon, to sell her brexit plans, and our scotland correspondent lorna gordon is there. what kind of a message do you think she will get? she is visiting a factory here and her message will be verse. this agreement is the only way to protect jobs verse. this agreement is the only way to protectjobs and investment. indeed, she will also see it presents new opportunities for exporters. her team are keen to emphasise that over the past week some really big employers in scotla nd
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some really big employers in scotland have come on board, the scots whisky association, inios, they have all come on board to see this deal is better than an ideal brexit, but of course the economy is also central to nicola sturgeon's arguments, scropton's first minister yesterday presented her own economic modelling done by her economic advisers, which said scotland will be much worse off as a result of theresa may's deal, it will equate to " every theresa may's deal, it will equate to "every single person here in scotla nd to "every single person here in scotland being £1600 a head worse off" if this deal goes through, and her mps will vote against it when it comes up her mps will vote against it when it comes up in the house of commons on december 11. myrna groden in glasgow, thank you. —— lorna groden. —— lorna grodon. a victim of child exploitation has called for a change in the law, amid claims a man who raped her has been offered the chance to play a role in her son's life. sammy woodhouse who's waived her right to annonymity says
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rotherham council approached arshid hussain, even though he's in prison for raping her as child. jon donnison has the story. sammy woodhouse was just one victim of the rotheram grooming scandal. across the town, hundreds of young girls were sexually abused by gangs of men. when sammy was just 15 she was raped, and became pregnant. she had a son. in 2016 this man, arshid hussein, the biological father, was jailed for 35 years for abusing more than 50 girls. sammy says he has now been contacted by rotherham council in relation to a case in the family court. they asked him to apply for custody, so then he could make all the parental decisions. so how that would work, because, you know, he's in prison for 35 years, he would decide where my son would live, and make all the decisions. then my son would go and visit him in prison, which is just absolutely outrageous. rotherham council says the case
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relates to family court proceedings in which it is unable to give details. but in a statement, they said but in a statement, they said... but some are now calling for a change in the law. i think most people would be horrified to find that a convicted rapist could apply through the courts to access their children, but in this case the social worker went to him and encouraged him to apply for custody. now, i think they've got the law wrong in this case, but as a parliament we have a responsibility to make it crystal clear in law that convicted rapists have absolutely no parental rights when it comes to accessing their children. and sammy woodhouse says her case is not unique, she says there are many more women who face years of abuse, now fighting to protect their children. jon donnison, bbc news. a 16—year—old boy is to be charged with assault
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over an attack on a 15—year—old syrian refugee, at a school in huddersfield. a video, shared on social media, shows the attacker dragging the boy to the floor by his neck before pouring water over his face. our correspondent chi chi izundu is here. what more do we know about this? this was hosted a month ago and has been viewed 2 million times. it shows a group of school children walking across a playing field. one kid appears to headbutt the other before pinning him down on the ground by the throat and pouring a bottle of water over his face. west yorkshire police say they conducted a thorough investigation when the incident was reported the day after the video was shot. a 16—year—old youth has been interviewed and reported for summons, for an offence of assault. he's due to appear at a youth court in due course. west yorkshire police also said safeguarding measures have been put in place for the victim and the victim's family. a gofundme page has
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been set up. the school, almondbury community school, say they are working with police over their enquiries and the safety and welfare of students is our number one priority and i can assure you that this situation is being taken extremely seriously. chi chi izundu, thank you. the time is 1.14. our top story this lunchtime... a range of government projections for different brexit scenarios predicts the uk economy will be smaller in every case compared to staying in the eu. but the prime minister insists her deal is still the best option. and still to come... sydney is flooded by a month's worth of rain injust a few hours. coming up on bbc news: and tyson fury meets la firefighters ahead of his heayweight showdown with deontay wilder in the united states this weekend. mps have warned ports
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across the country could face major transport disruption, if britain leaves the eu without a deal. the public accounts committee says government plans are "worryingly under—developed", and companies haven't been able to prepare, because ministers are keeping parts of their strategy secret. however the department for transport has dismissed the criticism, calling it inaccurate. here's tom burridge. currently goods flow on and off boats arriving at british ports from the eu without being checked. but what will happen in four months if britain leaves the european union without a deal? mps on the public accounts committee today warned there is a risk of major disruption in places like portsmouth. they fear the department for transport will not be properly prepared. we are concerned it is quite late in the day, that businesses are not really aware enough of what is going on, and should have been engaged
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with much sooner. and one of the biggest challenges is still around dover, plans for a lorry park on m 20 and 26 are of real concern and have not really been tested yet. and this, long queues on the m20 over a decade ago is the kind of scenario the department for transport is preparing for. the no deal plan is that lorries would queue to the side of the motorway to ensure traffic keeps flowing in both directions. some of the discussions between the government and transport companies about the no deal scenario had been kept secret through nondisclosure agreements. officials say the necessary protect commercial interests. but mps in the report today says such secrecy has damaged the ability of the wider business community to plan. uk ports have been looking at how they could react if there was suddenly checks of the border. but they remain worried about the prospect of no deal because the necessary infrastructure
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is not in place. there has been a lot of analysis and a lot of working with government on possible scenarios which we're not allowed to divulge. but it is fair to say that ports and private sector operators are not investing yet until they know the final arrangements on the final deal. the department of transport says it is implementing the necessary legislation to prepare for no deal. and it has carried out extensive work to mitigate any disruption at the border. but mps on the public accounts committee are less than reassured. the russian president, vladimir putin, has blamed ukraine for provoking the clash in which russian forces seized three of the country's naval vessels at the weekend. mr putin said he still hoped to hold talks with donald trump at a summit later this week, after suggestions that washington might cancel the meeting over the incident. our correspondent, jonah fisher, is in the ukrainian capital, kiev. one would assume as far as ukraine
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is concerned that they hope martial law will damp down a few things in this contested area but also that donald trump might come to their aid. the argument continues over what happened in the card straight on sunday with president putin today claiming it was all a provocation and effectively that the ukrainians had staged this confrontation which took place effectively for the political purposes of the president here in ukraine. ukraine itself as you mentioned has gone on high alert following that clash. marshall was introduced in border areas today. ukrainian president has been all over television here warning about what he says are the massing of troops, tanks and military equipment in crimea and on the russian side of the border with ukraine. of course there is little prospect of ukraine being able to take on russia
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militarily so there are hopes are vested in diplomacy and what they would like to see and they have not seen so would like to see and they have not seen so far is a commitment from both europe and the united states to look at increasing sanctions and concrete measures against russia in response to this incident. thank you. a woman and her former boyfriend have been found guilty of being responsible for the death of her three—week—old son. stanley davis died in march last year after sustaining 42 fractures to his body. he was three weeks old. roxanne davis, from gosport, and samuel davies, from southampton, were convicted at winchester crown court of causing or allowing the boy's death. wales' first minister, carwynjones, has begun giving evidence at the inquest into the death of the former welsh minister, carl sargeant, who was found hanged last november. mrjones was criticised for sacking mr sargeant after he was accused of inappropriate behaviour towards women — allegations he denied. our wales correspondent sian lloyd joins us from the inquest.
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what did we hear today? the first minister carwynjones has onlyjust begun giving evidence. we have heard just about ten minutes from them before the german financial dog during that time the coroner was trying to get some sense of what is the role of first minister, what other duties and responsibilities and also of the special advisers and the team who surround the first minister. this morning the inquest heard from one of the first minister's special advisers about what was happening within the office of the first minister in the days in the run—up to the decision that he took to sack carl sargeant from his cabinet secretary post last november. and it was four days after he had been sacked following these allegations of sexual misconduct
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towards women that his body was found at the family home. now the advisers said that in the days in the run—up to that decision to sack him that carl sargeant was not approached for any denial and nothing was said about the allegations against him in advance. earlier this week we heard that the 49—year—old had suffered from depression. the advisor also said at no stage was any welfare advice given to him. it's being suggested thousands of women who experience trauma while giving birth, are often left with undiagnosed mental illnesses. a report from the royal college of psychiatrists, says unexpected problems can leave mothers experiencing signs of post—traumatic stress disorder. jamie coulson has the details. that's a mister. when anna simpson gave birth to her daughter, macey, it should have been one of the happiest days of her life. but when complications led
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to an emergency caesarean section, it rapidly became one of the most frightening. there was a lot of people around me — they were kind of ripping my clothes off, ripping my jewellery off. there was an anaesthetist was trying to put a cannula in my hand, so i felt as if i was being attacked. in the weeks that followed, anna developed symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder, or ptsd, including vivid flashbacks and deep distress when reminded of the birth. many people may traditionally associate post traumatic stress disorder with soldiers on the battlefield or the victims of violent crime. but, for women who have had a traumatic birth, it can bejust as real. and without help, it can lead to long—term harm. research suggests 4% of women in the uk, or around 30,000 a year, develop ptsd after a traumatic birth. but experts believe many others could go undiagnosed or are misdiagnosed. women are currently being failed
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by the nhs in terms of the way that birth trauma is detected, diagnosed and treated. there is a lack of perinatal provision across the united kingdom and women simply are not able to access trauma informed services routinely. nhs england say any form of mental ill health is a concern, but great strides have been made, with 7000 more women treated last year and specialist mental health services planned throughout england. following treatment, anna is now looking to the future instead of fearing the past. jamie coulson, bbc news. the telecoms regulator has capped the cost of calls to directory enquiries. it's now 3 pounds, 65p, for 90 seconds. ofcom says it's responding to a "steep" rise in costs. with the most popular service, 118— 118, charging more than 11 pounds, for a 90 second call. it's estimated over a million people, many of them elderly, without access to the internet, still use directory
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enquiry services. facial recognition technology, is seen as a crucial tool that could help police catch criminals and prevent crime. but a new report says "profound" legal and ethical questions have to be answered before it can be used routinely. the software allows cameras to pick out the faces of people in a crowd who might be suspects, and officers in south wales have been testing it out. here's our home affairs correspondent, danny shaw. using computers to recognise faces. artificial intelligence is now being used by police to identify suspects. but does it work? cardiff university examined the use of facial recognition by south wales police at last year's champions league final and at a series of other events including rugby internationals and pop concerts. cameras scanned thousands of spectators, comparing their features to images on a police database. it was part of a trial project funded by the home office.
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at the start, the system accurately matched only 3% of cases it picked out. —— faces. that increased to 46% when a new computer algorithm became available, leading researchers to conclude that the technology can certainly assist police in spotting suspects who otherwise would not be found. in the course of the trial they recognised on a number of occasions that it could have other uses. for example there were uses of it to identify victims of crime as well when they had been quite badly injured. there were uses of it to identify missing people. and also potentially we think there might be uses that could be put in place in terms of managing people with vulnerabilities such as alzheimer's who have a tendency to go missing. in order to be able to locate them for safeguarding reasons. but the researchers say facial recognition is not a silver bullet.
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the system struggled to work with large crowds and in poor light. while the face type of a small number of people triggered false positive results. danny shaw, bbc news. in australia, thousands of people have been told to leave their homes, as bushfires devastate parts of queensland. a catastrophic fire warning has now been issued, for the first time in the state's history. extreme weather conditions have also hit new south wales, with torrential rain and flooding in sydney, from where, hywel griffith reports. fleeing the fires while they still can. for a thousand queensland residents there has been no choice but to leave their homes behind. bush fires are a familiar thread in australia but not here and not at this time of year. the heatwave combined with fierce wind created
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what the emergency services called a firestorm. it is not normal for queensland, people will burn to death, normal approach will not work if the situation develops as it is expected to develop. it is no different to a category five cyclone coming straight to your door. more than 130 fires continue to burn as the day ended up some homes have been destroyed but rescue teams have stopped lives from being lost. 800 miles down the coast it was a very different storm testing the authorities and sydney was battered bya authorities and sydney was battered by a months worth of rain in a day. the worst downpour in over 30 years brought four inches of water as the storm began, so that the flash flooding. paramedics were left dealing with four times the usual number of car crashes. two people we re number of car crashes. two people were killed during the storm. some
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may only be a few days away in australia but on bridget to go wild weather is testing the resolve of many. — whilst unprotect to the weather. harry leslie smith, the veteran campaigner for the poor and for refugees, has died. he was 95. he grew up in poverty in yorkshire, living through the great depression, and served as a pilot in the second world war. but it's his work championing human rights and the welfare state, for which he'll be best remembered. richard galpin, looks back at his life. ifi if i close my eyes i can smell the poverty that losers from the dusty tenements streets of my boyhood. poverty that losers from the dusty tenements streets of my boyhoodm was this speech at the labour party conference four years ago about his life and the importance of the nhs that propelled harry leslie smith into the limelight as a passionate act to rest. the speech reducing
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some to tears. growing up in yorkshire during the great depression he had to provide for his family from the age of seven, working as a barrow boy after his father lost hisjob. working as a barrow boy after his father lost his job. during the second world war he joined the raf at the age of 22, serving as a pilot. the huge number of people he had witnessed displaced by the war led to him campaigning on behalf of of refugees and migrants right up until the last years of his life. including visiting the makeshift camps in northern france from where many have tried to reach this country. but he also took to the media to highlight what was another key containing issue for him. poverty in the uk. there is a massive amount of people living almost a date to payday. this was something he himself had experienced asa something he himself had experienced as a child. late in his life he decided the world was going
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backwards and felt that he had to stand up and be counted and campaign to help save the nhs, to help the poon to help save the nhs, to help the poor, the homeless, refugees. he was a moral right in the world. tributes have been pouring in since the announcement that he had lied. he had been with his son in canada and is thought to have had pneumonia. his son has bowed to follow in his footsteps. richard galpin, abc news. time for a look at the weather. not great news unfortunately with the weather. overnight we brought in the weather. overnight we brought in the atlantic mild air but with that it is laden with rain and gale force wind. at the moment we are sitting under storm diana.

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