hello, you're watching afternoon live — i'm simon mccoy. today at 2:00... leaving the eu could cost between £60 billion and £200 billion according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may denies it means we'll be poorer. 0ur deal is the best deal available for jobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. this analysis does not show that we will be poorer in the future than we are today. the government's economic service forecast published today are actually meaningless, because there's no actual deal to model. just a 26—page wishlist. anger as a survivor of child exploitation claims that rotherham council has offered the man who raped her the chance to play a role in her son's life. i want a change in law to ensure that no rapist can access children conceived through rape and abuse. i want a full investigation, not just into what's happened to my case,

but a national one. flash—flood chaos — two people die as sydney is deluged by the heaviest november rain in decades. receiving a month's worth injust two hours. coming up on afternoon live all the sport. speaker go jose mourinho has been hitting out at his critics as his emotions spill over on the sidelines in the champions league. helen, is that diana? yes, we have changed our weathertight overnight. the mile atlantic air is coming in with rain and gale that we have more tomorrow. also coming up — he called himself the world's oldest rebel — tributes are being paid to harry leslie smith, activist and campaigner — who's died at the age of 95 hello, everyone.

a major government review of the economic impact of leaving the european union, suggests britain will be poorer, under all possible brexit scenarios, than if it remained in the eu. the study predicts the prime minister's own proposals could cost the economy as much as £100 billion over 15 years, with gdp 3.9% lower. if britain leaves without a deal, it could cost the country twice as much, with gdp 9.3% lower. the analysis could complicate theresa may's attempts to sell her brexit deal to the public, with opposition parties and scores of her own mps threatening to vote her plans down. but in the commons today — before heading to scotland — she insisted her deal, was the best available. here's our political correspondent, alex forsyth. across the country, the prime minister has been trying to sell her brexit deal. yesterday she was in wales at an agricultural show before heading to northern ireland, where she met business leaders. later today, she's off to scotland,

saying her plan works for the whole of the uk. are you using project fear to get a deal, prime minister? but first she had to face mps, just as the government published analysis of the impact of brexit on the economy. questions to the prime minister! the government economic service forecasts public today are actually meaningless, because there is no actual deal to model, just a 26—page wishlist. the chancellor, however, said her deal will make people worse off. does the prime minister agree? he doesn't appear to be here this morning to be consulted. the prime minister, as ever, defended her deal. what we see behind the analysis we have published today, and indeed the chancellor recognised this morning, is that our deal is the best deal available forjobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. the government analysed

different brexit outcomes. it found the prime minister's deal would be better for the economy than no—deal, but overall any brexit would make us poorer than staying in the eu. yes, it's true, if we are only looking at the economic benefits, remaining in the eu is a slightly better economic outcome than the prime minister's deal. but the prime minister's deal gives an outcome remarkably close to the benefits of staying in the european union, the economic benefits, while having all the political benefits of being independent of the eu. that's why we think this is such a good deal. brexiteers claimed the government was using flawed forecasts to scare people into backing the prime minister's plan. i'm afraid that we must be ready for project fear 2.0. in a desperate attempt to reverse the result of the 2016 referendum, we're undoubtedly going to hear the most hair—raising stories and improbable forecasts.

the treasury's forecasts in the past have almost never been right, and have more often been dramatically wrong. in less an two weeks, mps will decide whether to back the prime minister's brexit deal. there is a furious fight going on between those who want different outcomes. expect this economic analysis to be seized on by both sides as they try to shape opinion of what's best for the country's future. alex forsyth, bbc news, westminster. our business correspondent, andrew walker, is with me to look at the figures. the analysis, what does it say about theresa may's prepared... i can't speak! prepared? that is the word i am looking for. a couple of points with making first, we will see some unpleasant looking numbers coming up, but none of them are suggesting the economy is going to be that much smaller than it is today. but it is

the comparison with what it might otherwise might have been had we maintained existing arrangements. it is not a question of us getting poorer than we are now, because the expectation is that the economy is going to grow, just slower than it would. the preferred arrangement is the white paper that we had back in july. it may well be that the negotiations don't ultimately produce that, but it is still a useful benchmark for the government analysis. and the conclusion that came to was that 15 years from now the economy would be something like 2.5 - 3.9% the economy would be something like 2.5 — 3.9% smaller than it would be, had we maintained our existing arrangements with the eu. that is if she gets it through. if she gets what she wants. the worry is that we crush out with no deal? and that could prove very expensive? that is what the analysis suggests. it says the potential for an impact what the analysis suggests. it says the potentialfor an impact on what the analysis suggests. it says

the potential for an impact on the size of the economy of 9.3% if we do, indeed, crush out without a deal. some quite striking regional divergences between these figures. you get the largest impact in the north—east of england, smallest in london. frankly, in all scenarios, all regions of the uk would come in the government's analysis, take some sort of a hit. when we are talking about billions, 9%, it is difficult to work out what that means on an individual basis. what would that mean the cost to every single person in this country would be?” mean the cost to every single person in this country would be? i haven't got a figure for that specifically. but, you know, we would be looking ata but, you know, we would be looking at a situation of wages being a bit lower than they would otherwise have been, less government money coming into finances to pay for public services. one of the other conclusions of the research is that under almost all of these scenarios there would be significantly higher borrowing needs for the government u nless borrowing needs for the government unless it shows to make up the shortfall by spending less or taking a bit more in taxation. backing what

you have just said, a bit more in taxation. backing what you havejust said, the prime minister and the house of commons said this does not mean we are going to be poorer compared with where we are today? that is absolutely right. i suppose that would be correspondingly making it somewhat harder to actually look back historically and say what the impact had been. because it is very unlikely that we will be poorer than we are now. you unlikely that we will be poorer than we are now. you are unlikely that we will be poorer than we are now. you are having to compare what actually happens with what might have happened in a hypothetical, different scenario. that is always the basis for a lot of arguments. many thanks. and for helping me get my words out. let's talk to our chief political correspondent, vicki young, who's at westminster. the prime minister's road show was back on the road. she is on her way to scotland ? back on the road. she is on her way to scotland? that's right, she has done prime minister's questions again, having visited northern ireland and wales yesterday, she is off to scotland to get her message out. the plan being to get beyond this place, to appeal to people who's livelihoods, whose jobs and businesses she would say are

dependent on her getting this through. the aim is to put pressure on mps to do so. it is still the case that a lot of the chatter around here is what happens if she doesn't get the deal through. that is something thatjohn mcdonnell has been talking about to our political editor, laura kuenssberg. want a deal that will protect jobs and the economy. if we can't achieve that, the government can't achieve that, we think we can, if the government can't achieve that, we should have a general election. it is difficult to do because of the nature of the legislation. if that is not possible, we will be calling on the government tojoin possible, we will be calling on the government to join us possible, we will be calling on the government tojoin us in possible, we will be calling on the government to join us in a possible, we will be calling on the government tojoin us in a public vote. again, it is difficult to judge, at each stage, but that is the sequence i think we'll go through over this period. so inevitable if a vote of no—confidence to bring down the government and a general election, it is inevitable, to use the word you have just there would be another

election? our policy is if we cannot get a general election, the other option is a people's vote. but the prime minister is still insisting she can get her deal through parliament, and there are many that do support her. one of them is conservative mp vicky ford, who is with me now. are you happy that you will be voting when he wrote for theresa may's deal for something that today the government's own analysis suggests will make people £100 billion, the economy £100 billion poorer than if we had stayed in? i am not sure we are comparing apples and apples. when we have the referendum, people were very clearly told that if we leave the eu and walk away from that trading relationship, there will be an economic impact. the size of that economic impact. the size of that economic impact. the size of that economic impact depends on what future relationship we have. that is what these scenarios try to model and try to give us, some numbers

around that. clearly, the worst—case scenario from an economic impact, which meansjobs scenario from an economic impact, which means jobs and scenario from an economic impact, which meansjobs and livelihoods, in my constituencies and others, the worst—case scenario is leaving with i'io worst—case scenario is leaving with no deal. that would have very significant economic impacts. so, thatis significant economic impacts. so, that is why the prime minister has worked towards having this negotiated deal which says, yes, we are leaving, yes, we're taking back control, her three tasks, taking back control of money, laws and borders, but also this relationship that gives stability through the transition period and then the future trading relationship to protectjobs and future trading relationship to protect jobs and growth. future trading relationship to protectjobs and growth. that is what these economic scenarios show. and every scenario, there is no getting away from the fact that we will be, the economy will be less well off than it would have been. so, what about some of your collea g u es so, what about some of your colleagues who are saying, not very many, i admit, colleagues who are saying, not very many, iadmit, who colleagues who are saying, not very many, i admit, who say we are better off staying in the eu?|j

many, i admit, who say we are better off staying in the eu? i voted remain, buti off staying in the eu? i voted remain, but i made that case back in the referendum. the people voted to leave. they voted to leave, having been given very clear information that there would be an economic impact of changing our trading relationship with the eu. the question is, how do we minimise the economic impact? that i think, is important. this scenario looks at what happens if we had just wto rules with europe and nothing else. would that be better than having the prime minister's deal? and it wouldn't. so we now have those impact assessments, as it were, to suggest that. that is backed up by my conversations with business. we have had business organisations, the federation of small business, the cbi, i was with the motor manufacturers last night, all saying that we need this withdrawal agreement so we don't face that cliff edge, that economic fallout that you could get from that cliff edge and uncertainty. we need a

transition agreement. we need active trading relationship. what was the line? we are not leaving europe, we are leaving big eu. we want to continue to have that trading relationship with europe. the prime minister's deal is the deepest trade relationship that the eu has ever offered relationship that the eu has ever offe re d a ny relationship that the eu has ever offered any other country. that is what is all to play ball. when you talk to colleagues and i talk to your colleagues, do you not feel slightly concerned ? because your colleagues, do you not feel slightly concerned? because they're not coming around to the argument that you have just made. not coming around to the argument that you have just madelj not coming around to the argument that you have just made. i am listening to what voices outside are saying as well. i'm listening to the voice of businesses, employers and jobs, small and large. they have actually been quite surprised by how many of my colleagues have said they are still undecided. people that one might have thought from some of the press reporting, these are people that are definitely going to vote i'io. that are definitely going to vote no. so, no, i that are definitely going to vote no. so, no, lam listening. it is

always good to be difficult for the most complicated negotiation of our lifetime. but look at the other options. you either have no—deal brexit, huge economic uncertainty, a second referendum that i think would be hugely divisive and the telling people we have reneged on the promise we gave them when we said it was the people's choice and we would carry through their vote. i concur that view and the downing street is that view and the downing street is that it that view and the downing street is thatitis that view and the downing street is that it is all to play for when the vote comes here on that it is all to play for when the vote comes here on the 11th of december. a woman who was groomed and raped as a teenager is demanding a law change because she says her attacker has been invited to play a role in her son's life. sammy woodhouse, who's waived her right to anonymity, says rotherham council approached arshid hussain even though he's in prison for raping her as a child. jon donnison has the story. sammy woodhouse was just one victim of the rotheram grooming scandal.

across the town, hundreds of young girls were sexually abused by gangs of men. when sammy was just 15 she was raped, and became pregnant. she had a son. in 2016 this man, arshid hussein, the biological father, was jailed for 35 years for abusing more than 50 girls. sammy says he has now been contacted by rotherham council in relation to a case in the family court. they asked him to apply for custody, so then he could make all the parental decisions. so how that would work, because, you know, he's in prison for 35 years, he would decide where my son would live, and make all the decisions. then my son would go and visit him in prison, which is just absolutely outrageous. rotherham council says the case relates to family court proceedings, on which it's unable to give details. in a statement

a spokesperson said... but some are now calling for a change in the law. i think most people would be horrified to find that a convicted rapist could apply through the courts to access their children, but in this case the social worker went to him and encouraged him to apply for custody. now, i think they've got the law wrong in this case, but as a parliament we have a responsibility to make it crystal clear in law that convicted rapists have absolutely no parental rights when it comes to accessing their children. and sammy woodhouse says her case is not unique, she says there are many more women who face years of abuse, now fighting to protect their children. jon donnison, bbc news. a 16—year—old boy is to be charged with assault, over an attack on a 15—year—old syrian refugee at a school in huddersfield. a video, shared on social media, shows the attacker dragging the boy to the floor by his neck before

pouring water over his face. 0ur correspondent chi chi izundu is here. so, what do we know about this? was posted on social media yesterday and it has been viewed more than 2 million times. as you said, you see a group of boys walking across a school playing field. 0ne appears to head—butt another before pinning him to the ground by his throat and throwing water over his face. west yorkshire police say that they have and did conduct a thorough investigation when this was reported to them last month. they say a 16—year—old boy has been interviewed and reported for summons on an assault offence, and he is due to appear at assault offence, and he is due to appearata assault offence, and he is due to appear at a youth court in due course. now, they have also said that safeguarding measures have been put in place for the victim and his family. someone has set up a gofundme page for the victim and his family, and that has exceeded

£65,000 and is still rising. the school, in a letter home to parents on their website, say they are working with police. they say the safety a nd working with police. they say the safety and the welfare of the children at the school is the number—1 priority and are taking this extremely seriously. wales' first minister, carwynjones, has been giving evidence at the inquest into the death of the former welsh minister, carl sargeant, who took his own life last november. mrjones was criticised for sacking mr sargeant after he was accused of inappropriate behaviour towards women — allegations he denied. 0ur reporter tomas morgan is in ruthin in north wales. yes, carwynjones just began giving evidence, just before lunch. he was asked by the coronerjohn gittings, about the reshuffle that happened just days before carl sargeant was found dead in his home. he was asked

about the reshuffle and said there was going to be a reshuffle anyway. ca rwyn was going to be a reshuffle anyway. carwyn jones was going to be a reshuffle anyway. carwynjones said, regarding allegations he received against carl sargeant, that there was no way of realistically divorcing one from the other, ie the reshuffle and the allegations against carl sargeant. in the days leading up to that reshuffle there had been a complaint against carl sargeant of inappropriate behaviour towards women. carl sargeant and died four days after he was sacked as a minister and he was suspended from the labour party. he had been an assembly member for 1h years and a welsh government minister for eight yea rs. welsh government minister for eight years. the inquest has already heard here that he had left a note for his family in the days before he died, in which he said, i have failed you, i have let you down badly. now, ca rwyn i have let you down badly. now, carwyn jones has just i have let you down badly. now, carwynjones has just resumed giving evidence here and the inquest

continues. you're watching afternoon live, these are our headlines... government forecasts suggest theresa may's plan for withdrawing from the eu could cut the economy by nearly 4% over 15 years. a no—deal departure could lead to a nine per cent cut. a rape survivor in rotherham has waived her anonymity, to call for a law change amid claims a man who raped her has been invited to play a role in her son's life. flash—flood chaos — two people die as sydney is deluged by the heaviest november rain in decades. receiving a month's worth injust two hours. and jose mourinho hits out at critics as his emotions spill over on the sidelines. he says it was relief that prompted this reaction asa relief that prompted this reaction as a late goal ensured manchester united reached the last 16 of the champions league. robbie keane has announced his retirement from football. he will work as assistant manager to mick mccarthy, who has been appointed the republic of ireland manager. and tyson fury faces deontay wilder in their world

heavyweight title fight in los angeles this weekend. theory has lost over ten stone in the build—up. —— tyson fury. the uk's worst performing mental health trust has been told it has only weeks to improve safety, after inspectors rated it inadequate for a third time. the care quality commission says managers at the norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust, had repeatedly failed to protect patients, who were harming themselves due to a lack of care. the regulator says the trust has failed to address problems going back years. nikki fox reports. just some of the families failed by england's worst performing mental health trust. many taking their lives before getting the help they needed. 19—year—old nyall brown from norfolk died in may. a popular bmx—er, his family say they were denied crisis care and were told by staff to go private. he was speaking like a 1a—year—old. he could only feel

the left side of his leg. there was a lot of stuff going on up there that wasn't right. he broke down in the shower that night and said, "why am i going crazy?" we said, "you are not going crazy, nyall." he couldn't hardly breathe, he couldn't hardly talk and we were sent home with him. the inspection report says people are self harming while waiting for care and the trust doesn't have a thread of safety running through it. it says thousands are waiting with no help, wards are unsafe and there have been more deaths after failing to learn from mistakes. when people are in their hour of need, often extremely vulnerable, they need to have that confidence that those services are safe and of an appropriate quality. from this publication, it suggests that it is time for the secretary of state to step in and take action. there are very significant issues that need to be sorted out. i think we need to look across the board at what the solutions might be. there's already work under way, for instance, on

improving integration with other health services in norfolk and sussex and suffolk, which at the moment isjust not good enough. the trust says it's disappointed with the report's findings, but fully accepts them and is determined to get things right. nyall‘s father says he was told by staff they understand how he feels. he says that is impossible. nicki fox, bbc news. facial recognition technology, is seen as a crucial tool that could help police catch criminals and prevent crime. but a new report says profound legal and ethical questions have to be answered before it can be used routinely. the software allows cameras to pick out the faces of people in a crowd who might be suspects, and officers in south wales have been testing it out. here's our home affairs correspondent, danny shaw. using computers to recognise faces. artificial intelligence is now being used by police to identify suspects. but does it work? cardiff university examined the use

of facial recognition by south wales police at last year's champions league final and at a series of other events including rugby internationals and pop concerts. cameras scanned thousands of spectators, comparing their features to images on a police database. it was part of a trial project funded by the home office. at the start, the system accurately matched only 3% of faces it picked out. that increased to 46% when a new computer algorithm became available, leading researchers to conclude that the technology can certainly assist police in spotting suspects who otherwise would not be found. in the course of the trial they recognised on a number of occasions that it could have other uses. for example there were uses of it to identify victims of crime as well when they had been quite badly injured. there were uses of it to identify missing people.

and also potentially we think there might be uses that could be put in place in terms of managing people with vulnerabilities such as alzheimer's who have a tendency to go missing. in order to be able to locate them for safeguarding reasons. but the researchers say facial recognition is not a silver bullet. the system struggled to work with large crowds and in poor light. while the face type of a small number of people triggered false positive results. danny shaw, bbc news. in australia, thousands of people have been told to leave their homes, as bushfires devastate parts of queensland. a catastrophic fire warning has now been issued, for the first time in the state's history. extreme weather conditions have also hit new south wales, with torrential rain and flooding in sydney, from where, hywel griffith reports. fleeing the fires while they still can. for 8,000 queenslanders there's has been no choice but to leave their homes behind. bush fires are a familiar

threat in australia — but not here and not at this time of year. a heatwave, combined with fierce winds, created what the emergency services called a firestorm. it's not normal for queensland. people will burn to death. their normal approaches will not work if the situation develops as it is predicted to develop. it's no different to a category five cyclone coming straight to your door. as the day ended, more than 130 fires continue to burn. some homes have been destroyed but rescue teams have stopped lives from being lost. 800 miles down the coast it was a very different storm testing the authorities as sydney was battered by a month's worth of rain in a day. the worst downpour in over 30 years brought four inches of water. as the storm swirled,

flash flooding began. paramedics were left dealing with four times the usual number of car crashes. two people were killed during the storm. summer may only be a few days away in australia. but wild, unpredictable weather is testing many people's resolve. time for a look at the weather. let's talk about what is happening in australia. it is remarkable, such extremes not that far apart from each other? no, it's unfortunate they were so close together because you have extreme heat. in cairns, they had their hottest weather ever recorded, and we are not even into the summer yet. further south across australia is a very different climate to hear. the low pressure brought extreme wet weather to cindy

—— sydney, and phenomenal amounts of rain. the area of low pressure is moving out into the sea, but it is heading to new zealand. parts of new zealand have had the wettest november on record. different areas, but it is going to cause further concerns over in new zealand. summer is not too far away, i wish it was summer is not too far away, i wish it was summer here. behind you, that is diana? we have changed our weather type, it is still cold and foggy this morning, but it was hill fog. diana is interesting, she has not been named, or not by the met office, it has been named by the portuguese and french authorities. it is coming across our shores. we have not had our d yet, deirdre will be the next one. but we are feeling the effects of diana, and it is outside of the hurricane season, so we don't have that publication with names. it looks fairly lively, what

can we expect? more of the same. diana is rumbling in the west. even see the tightly packed isobars. heavy rain as well. pretty miserable through the raw shower. this behind me is potentially another storm for tomorrow. a bit of uncertainty regarding tomorrow because it could be an explosive development. that is it developed in a short space of time and gives a lot more wet and windy weather. for the meantime, this is how it looks in troon. very chow. this is how it looks in troon. very choppy, atmospheric, stormy looking picture. we can expect more of that through the remainder of the day. pretty wet, as well as stormy. we have had that area of rain moving through, it became milder through the night. this is the next area of rain marching in. what in northern ireland and scotland for the rest of the afternoon. rain across england and wales. the main problem is the strength of the wind, 50 or 60 mph in the west. this is potentially tomorrow's area of low pressure.

coming in thick and fast as we had cold rain yesterday, at least it is mild rainfor cold rain yesterday, at least it is mild rain for today and tomorrow. no frost worries. as we go to the evening and overnight and you're heading out to the rush, just bear in mind that the combination of the rain, the gaels, that spray and standing water, it makes for pretty miserable driving conditions. dusty wins for all of us, but notably in the west. later, 70 mph for parts of scotla nd the west. later, 70 mph for parts of scotland and northern ireland. it is not exceptional, it is autumn after all. it is still quite potent and that makes it pretty nasty if you are travelling. 0vernight, we move that out of the way. the next area of rain is swamping many parts of inland and wales, northern ireland, into southern scotland by morning. no frost worries. it could be quite oblique day to start tomorrow. like today, grey, dismal, very windy, potentially even windier than we expect. there are warnings at the moment, but we will be fine tuning nose. at the moment, it is already

indicating 70 mph plus soft wind. if the low pressure develops further, it could be even more extreme than that. another wet and windy day. areas of rain similar to those today. moving away more quickly than today. moving away more quickly than today for most of us. a bright afternoon, showers, still mild. 12 or 1a celsius, the average is eight or 1a celsius, the average is eight or nine. we are staying with the atla ntic lead or nine. we are staying with the atlantic lead through friday. not as mild, but fewer showers and more sunshine. look behind me. brewing up for the weekend, the next area of rain. perhaps a slightly quieter day on friday. there will still be some showers, hail and thunder around the coasts, some sleet over the hills. the weekend brings low—pressure back in and yet more rain. stay tuned. this is bbc news —

our latest headlines. leaving the eu could cost between £60 and £200 billion, according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may denies it means we'll be poorer. a survivor of child exploitation claims that rotherham council has offered the man who raped her the chance to play a role in her son's life. syd ney sydney has been deluged by the heaviest november rain experienced in decades. traffic chaos and power cuts and at least two deaths blamed on the storm. harry leslie smith, the activist and

campaigner who called himself the world was my coldest rebel, has died at the age of 95. and after nearly a month of fiercely contested play, the world chess championship will be decided in a series of fast—paced tie—brea kers. after 12 draws in 12 regular games, the ultimate decider could be the sudden death game called armageddon. let's catch up with the rest of the sport now. jose mourinho seeing a lot of water last night. easy to think it would be the end of the world at manchester united last night after the tantrums. i think it is fairto night after the tantrums. i think it is fair to say that all is not well at the manager is responding in the fashion he did. after some tantrums on the touchlinejose mourinho couldn't resist a swipe at his crtics as he defended his european record.

it was a laboured performance as united reached the last sixteen of the champions league. he took it out on somewhat bottles pitch side. before taking aim at the ex professionals who've questioned his methods and the team's performances. let me send a message and say that i have played champions league first 40 years and the two years where they didn't play champions league. that was responding to his critics. not helped of course by the performances of manchester city, their great rivals across town at their great rivals across town at the moment, they also progressed through to the knockout stage. both manchester clubs through and two other clubs play tonight. both tottenham and liverpool have some work to do tonight if they're to qualify. for spurs, fail to beat inter milan and they're

out of the competition, after failing to win any of their first three games. a win would see things settled on their final group game. although that is against barcelona. liverpool still have a bit of work to do as well. they've got to beat paris saint germain in paris, and hope that red star don't beat napoli. let's hear from the tottenham manager. it's going to give us hope it's going to give us that game a different reality, but to fight into the next stage of the champions league. it is a huge game, it is a must win game, but for me, that game was important, the game that we are going to play is of course a decisive game. robbie keane has announced his

retirement from football. the 38—year—old played for the likes of tottenham, liverpool and celtic and spent the last year playing in india. here he is scoring for the republic or ireland at the world cup in 2002, he's their record goalscorer, and will become their new assistant manager working alongside mick mccarthy. there's been an increase in reported discrimination abuse in football for a sixth successive year. the anti—racism group kick it out found the numbers of reported cases of racist and homophobic abuse had grown again — as it has done year on year. the biggest increase came in disability discrimination the figures were compiled at all levels of the game. england survived a fightback from uganda to win the first of their three match netball series. england had a nine goal lead at half time but they let uganda back into it, the scores were level in the final quarter. but england got themselves going again in liverpool and won by 50 points to 46. the next game is in two days time. england cricket coach

trevor bayliss hopes ben stoke's exemplary conduct since an altercation outside a nightclub last year will help him avoid a lengthy ban. stokes who was cleared in court of affray faces a disciplinary hearing next month, alongside alex hames, for bringing he game into disrepute. bayliss could lose the player for their upcoming tour of the west indies depending on the punishment handed out by the ecb. and there's a big fight for tyson fury this weekend. he challenges deontay wilder for the wbc heavyweight title in los angeles. ahead of the fight they both took time out of their training schedule to meet the la county fire teams who've been dealing with those horrendous wild fires. and fury took the opportunity to draw attention to another big problem in los angeles. there are a lot of homeless people on the streets here, more than i have ever seen in my life. if you go

five minutes then the road, that thousands of homeless people. you think you might be in a third world country but it is a crisis situation and something needs to be done. i am just an outsider an opinion but it isa just an outsider an opinion but it is a situation happening all over the world especially in the uk as well. attention returns to training as the build—up continues to that big fight on saturday night. that's all the sport for now. let's return to the case of sammy woodhouse, a rotherham woman who was groomed and raped as a teenager and is now demanding a law change because she says her attacker has been invited to play a role in her son's life. the nspcc‘s head of policy and public affairs commented on sammy woodhouse's case, saying that the local authority could do more to protect ms woodhouse's child. it is clear that local authorities in making decisions need to be putting children first, and it is clear that in this particular case

the local authority could already have requested not to contact the child rapist that was the father of the child. so it is not clear to us what evidence of what decision—making process with the local authority have followed to conclude that it was in the best interests of the child to get this child rapist involved in his life and the life of the mother, who was and the life of the mother, who was a victim herself of child abuse. and who would be suffering from the trauma of five experiences and these would actually unpack her ability to ca re would actually unpack her ability to care for a child properly. the law is very clear that the best interests of children is paramount and that is what the local authorities should have been doing in taking decisions in this case. if, as we have seen, or as the

investigation in this case might reveal, local authorities have not been taking the best interests of the child into account and might not have been following the proceedings properly. i think it is a case for potentially the need for reforming the law to make sure that the best interests of the child comes always first in making decisions. that is the nspcc view. let's speak to denise lester, specialist family lawyer and child care representative on the law society's governing council. thank you for coming in. what are the father's rights here? any situation like this or any situation where they are proceedings are issued and the father is known, the local authority will serve them with the proceedings, their notice of intention to issue proceedings, whether or not they are on the birth certificate or have parental

responsibility. and they will also look to engage with them before proceedings and during proceedings, so as proceedings and during proceedings, so as to consider contact with that father are members of the family, so when you get a situation where someone when you get a situation where someone has been raped by a man and the father is known, that is what would happen. but there is a lot of anger because what about the rights of the mother and of the child?” can only speak to the law which follows d u e can only speak to the law which follows due process and looks at the child's welfare, what is in the child's welfare, what is in the child's welfare, what is in the child's welfare and best interests. the issue is the law as it stands allows rapists and other abusers to participate in care and other public

law proceedings and that means that the person who has been abused, the victim, sufferers compound abuse by the process. the council served him with a notice of the proceedings and we are where we are. | with a notice of the proceedings and we are where we are. i want to come to run the council is in a moment but what you say, is it conceivable that a convicted rapist could be granted access and even custody? yes, and that occurs not only in public law cases but in private law cases between individuals, because the human rights act a lousy parents to have the right to private and family life, and then you look at the child's welfare, so you do get people who are rapists, so it can be marital rape or it can be a

conviction, where children are brought to present, and it can be by social workers and others and they see their fathers, social workers and others and they see theirfathers, because social workers and others and they see their fathers, because the law as it is says the child should have the right of contact to both pa rents. the right of contact to both parents. it is a very difficult case and it is vital that the issues are debated in the public arena. rotherham council put out a statement saying like all councils we must comply with legal requirements. the can arouse strong feelings by those affected. as the council caught between a rock and a ha rd council caught between a rock and a hard place because they have a legal duty to all those involved? yes, they are, but within that, there are obviously procedures and decisions that would be made on a case—by—case basis by social workers to exclude a father or not. i know you want to be specific but this on the face of it, ona specific but this on the face of it, on a case like this, would be exactly the sort of case where the

public would say, this is just wrong? and i understand the public outcry and i also understand that the processes within the family courts are moodley secret and not transparent. —— generally secret. there are issues in the public interest. quite a brave decision to go public and waive the right to anonymity and she makes the point that she wants to get on with her life and look after her son, that is the priority, and a lot of people will say, that surely is the child's priority also? and has to be a balancing act because this is in the public domain and there is a child at the centre of it and one must have to be mindful of any supporting surrounding that particular child as well. very good of you to talk about it, thank you for coming in. mps have warned ports across the country could face major transport disruption, if britain leaves the eu without a deal.

the public accounts committee says government plans are ‘worryingly under—developed', and companies haven't been able to prepare, because ministers are keeping parts of their strategy secret. however the department of transport has dismissed the criticism, calling it inaccurate. here's tom burridge. currently goods flow on and off boats arriving at british ports from the eu without being checked. but what will happen in four months if britain leaves the european union without a deal? mps on the public accounts committee today warned there is a risk of major disruption in places like portsmouth. they fear the department for transport will not be properly prepared. we are concerned it is quite late in the day, that businesses are not really aware enough of what is going on, and should have been engaged with much sooner. and one of the biggest challenges is still around dover, plans for a lorry park on m20 and 26 are of real concern and have not really been tested yet. and this, long queues on the m20 over a decade ago is the kind of scenario the department for transport is preparing for.

the no deal plan is that lorries would queue to the side this is of the motorway to ensure traffic keeps flowing in both directions. some of the discussions between the government and transport companies about the no deal scenario had been kept secret through nondisclosure agreements. officials say they're necessary to protect commercial interests. but mps in the report today says such secrecy has damaged the ability of the wider business community to plan. uk ports have been looking at how they could react if there was suddenly checks of the border. but they remain worried about the prospect of no deal because the necessary infrastructure is not in place. there has been a lot of analysis and a lot of working with government on possible scenarios which we're not allowed to divulge. but it is fair to say that ports and private sector operators are not investing yet until they know the final arrangements on the final deal. the department of transport says it is implementing the necessary

legislation to prepare for no deal. and it has carried out extensive work to mitigate any disruption at the border. but mps on the public accounts committee are less than reassured. harry leslie smith, the veteran campaigner for the poor and for refugees, has died. he was 95. he grew up in poverty in yorkshire, living through the great depression, and served as a pilot in the second world war. but it's his work championing human rights and the welfare state, for which he'll be best remembered. richard galpin, looks back at his life. ifi if i close my eyes i can smell the poverty that oozes from the dusky tenements streets of my boyhood. it was this speech at the labour party conference four years ago about his life and the importance of the nhs that propelled farrier leslie smith into the limelight as a passionate

activist. the speech producing some to tears. growing up in yorkshire during the great depression, he had to provide for his family from the age of seven, working as a barrow boy after his father lost his job. and during the second world war he joined the raf at the age of 22 serving as a pilot. the huge number of people he had witnessed displaced by the war led to him campaigning on behalf of refugees and migrants right up to the last years of his life. including visiting the makeshift camps in northern france from where many tried to reach this country. but he also took to the media to highlight what was another key campaigning issue for him, poverty in britain. a massive amount of people living almost payday to payday. this of course something he

experienced as a child. and then late in his life he decided the world was going backwards and he felt he had to stand up and be counted and campaign to save the nhs, the homeless and poor and refugees, and he was a moral light in the world. tributes have been pouring in since the announcement he died. he had been with his son in canada thought to have pneumonia. his son has vowed to follow in his footsteps. harry leslie smith, who has died at the age of 95. all the business news injust a moment but first our headlines. leading the eu could cost between 60 and £200 billion according to the government's on forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may insists the economy would continue to grow. a woman raped as a teenager claims rotherham council has offered the

man who attacked early chance to play a role in her son's life. sidney deluged by the heaviest november rain experienced in decades with at least two debts blamed on the storm. —— two deaths. first a look at the headlines on afternoon live. mild inflation has returned after shop prices rose for the first time in five years in november. hire a global cereal prices have pushed up on the price of several foods but it appears many high street retailers continue to keep clothing prices lower partly in order to compete with online stores. hmrc says the number of reported scams is up 20% over the years with criminals trying to get your personal financial data via promises of tax refunds are threats of investigation. the department is getting a staggering 85,000 reports a month. the head of

cyber security said tackling the problem is the bit of a cat and mouse game. the price of a call to directory inquiries will be capped at £3.65 for 90 seconds. phone industry regulator 0fcom said it is responding to a "steep" rise in prices. the most popular service, 118118, charges £11.23 for a 90 second call, the regulator said. more than a million people a year still use the service. that is shocking because sitters mostly older people who use that service? it is over 65 is who are most likely to use that, those who do not have access to the internet, who need to use telephone services. the fact of the matter is these companies have been running for a long time and they were at one point getting 7 million users a year so the number is diminishing but off, has finally realised the need to cap how long you can be charged. 90 seconds! shall we move on? let's

talk about microsoft. are we expecting big things from microsoft today? in the next few hours all eyes will be on microsoft which for a brief spell yesterday overtook apple as the world's most valuable public company. the biggest and most valuable public company. at the start of trading in new york today, apple was valued at $826 billion compared to microsoft's $822 billion. it hit1 trillion for one or two days but it has lost a bit of its value. the last time microsoft held the top spot was 16 years ago. can you guess which company was the biggest before apple took the title in 2012? an oil company? shell. exxon mobil. but good guess! michelle fleury, new york stock exchange. why is this a big deal? how valuable are these companies and

which is the most valuable now as we are talking? i wasjust checking the share price while you were testing simon on his market knowledge and i can tell you that the microsoft share price isjust a little can tell you that the microsoft share price is just a little that hired at the moment, up 1.4%, but that being said, the market capitalisation which is what people been talking about for the last 24 hours still puts apple in the lead when talking about the most valuable company by market share. the reason we are all talking about it is because apple have seen this big drop from the1 because apple have seen this big drop from the 1 trillion mark back in early october, for several reasons. concerns about the new iphones, that sales will be disappointing. concerns about changing trade policies in america and how that might affect apple and its hardware and suppliers going forward. the fact of the ongoing talk about trade disputes with

china, all of this seen as negative for the company and that is why you have seen this big drop off rather than a huge gain on the side of microsoft which has also fallen back, but just not microsoft which has also fallen back, butjust not as much. and why does it matter who is the biggest company? who cares? you alluded to it. it has to do with the rivalry between these two. it dates back to the 19705. you had bill gates running a software company called microsoft and apple on the other side with stevejob5. microsoft and apple on the other side with steve jobs. two microsoft and apple on the other side with stevejob5. two big names, not just side with stevejob5. two big names, notjust in side with stevejob5. two big names, not just in company side with stevejob5. two big names, notjust in company term5 side with stevejob5. two big names, notjust in company terms but in leaders. people have followed their fortune5. microsoft became a monopoly, it had some really difficult legal challenges because of that with the government, and it fell on hard times. apple managed to reinvent itself as a much smaller company, as you say, hitting $8 billion market capitalisation back

in october. becau5e billion market capitalisation back in october. because of the iphone and the ipod, the5e product releases which changed its fortune5. now microsoft under new leadership is starting a slow and steady climb back focusing on a subscription model. apple for its part is still very much focused on hardware and it has a much stronger connection with consumers, so both repre5ent different types of technology companies, and everybody loves the bu5ine55 war. companies, and everybody loves the business war. they do indeed, and also 5ize matters in some aspects of life, doesn't it? thank you. see you soon. i will leave you with that one. the markets are looking 0k, we saw worries over the economic impact of brexit and that report dragging the london market down slightly but it has recovered some lo55e5 london market down slightly but it has recovered some losses and i5 currently in positive territory. don't look at me like that. the duke and duche55 of cambridge are visiting leicester city football club today to pay tribute to those killed in the helicopter crash last month.

five people died when the aircraft came down outside the king power stadium, including the club's chairman and owner. well, joining me now i5 emily anderson, who is at leicester city's stadium for us. what has been going down in the last couple of hours? the duke and duchess of cambridge have just left the king power stadium and they have been talking to leicester city players, the staff and the manager, and charities supported by the football club. when the duke and duchess arrived here just after 1pm this afternoon they stopped at the site to play in respect to the five people killed in the helicopter crash. they were the leicester city chairman landowner, two members of house staff, the pilot and the pilot's partner. the atmosphere today has definitely been sombre. not the usual pomp and ceremony you would expect from a royal visit. the

duchess of cambridge laid a wreath at the tribute site and the royal couple took their time to talk to the leicester city players and fans and well—wishers and it is a particularly special trip of prince william. as we know he is the president of the football association but also knew the owner very well and was one of the first people to send condolences from the palace at the news last month. he said he felt honoured to have known him and called him a dedicated family man. the duke and duchess have left the stadium and are only way to the of leicester where they will be learning about some of the education programme supported by leicester city football club. thank you. time for a look at the weather with helen willetts. good afternoon. wet and windy courtesy of storm diana but the difference between today and yesterday is the my elderly are

arriving through the night on this band of ear so it is not called as such but it has been masked by all the cloud, wind and rain with this deep area of low pressure still to governors severe gales in the north and west. 0ut governors severe gales in the north and west. out in the atlantic is tomorrow's troublemaker. another area of low pressure developing which could be even worse than today. coming in quick succession to the rain we have seen today and yesterday and the gales, so fairly nasty conditions for now and if you're heading out on to the lords, lots of spray and surface water with the ones likely to be destructive across the north and west. costs of 70 mph to be expected, not nice to drive in. through the evening and overnight, we will blow that band of rain, quieting fora overnight, we will blow that band of rain, quieting for a time, but already more rain rushing in on that next developing area of low pressure. more wind and rain with

cloud around and pretty miserable to start. could be quite a nasty area of low pressure across parts of the uk. still some uncertainty as to the detail but could be gusts of 40—50, and as we have seen, possibly upping the ante, gusts across england and wales as high as 6070, possibly higher, and all that rain in someone wide areas to those of today. 0nce it blows away lots of showers waiting in the wings but there should be drier and brighter spells in between come tomorrow afternoon especially across england and wales. 13, 14 is above average for the time of year. the low pressure continues to drive the weather into friday, brisk westerly winds bringing in showers and looking it to the atla ntic showers and looking it to the atlantic for the next area of low pressure. a very mobile weather situation. a few showers generally but not quite as mild as it has

been, still not too bad given the time of year but into the weekend it looks like we will see rain for most spots, saturday and sunday. hello, you're watching afternoon live. today at 3... leaving the eu could cost between 60 and 200 billion pounds — according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may denies it means we'll be poorer 0ur deal is the best deal available for jobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. this analysis does not show that we will be poorer in the future than we are today. the government's economic service forecasts published today are actually meaningless, because there's no actual deal to model. just a 26—page wishlist. anger as a survivor of child exploitation claims that rotherham council has offered the man who raped her the chance to play a role in her son's life.

i want a change in law to ensure that no rapist can access children conceived through rape and abuse. i want a full investigation, not just into what's happened to my kids, but a national one. flash—flood chaos — two people die as sydney is deluged by the heaviest november rain in decades, receiving a month's worth injust two hours. coming up on afternoon live all the sport. liverpool and tottenham play in the champions league tonight, with plenty to do if they are to keep their hopes of qualifying alive. we have replaced the frost and fork with gales. pretty miserable to the evening rush hour. more potentially stormy weather for tomorrow. also coming up — could it be chess armageddon? after a record—breaking 12 draws,

two grandmasters go head to head in a soundproofed glass box to decide the world chess championship. a major government review of the economic impact of leaving the european union suggests britain will be poorer, under all possible brexit scenarios than if it remained in the eu. the study predicts the prime minister's own proposals could cost the economy as much as a £100 billion over 15 years, with gdp 3.9% lower. if britain leaves without a deal, it could cost the country twice as much, with gdp 9.3% lower. the analysis could complicate theresa may's attempts to sell her brexit deal to the public, with opposition parties and scores of her own mp5, threatening to vote her plans down. but in the commons today — before heading to scotland — she insisted her deal

was the best available. here's our political correspondent, alex forsyth. across the country, the prime minister has been trying to sell her brexit deal. yesterday she was in wales at an agricultural show before heading to northern ireland, where she met business leaders. later today, she's off to scotland, saying her plan works for the whole of the uk. are you using project fear to get a deal, prime minister? but first she had to face mp5, just as the government published analysis of the impact of brexit on the economy. questions to the prime minister! the government economic service forecasts published today are actually meaningless, because there is no actual deal to model, just a 26—page wishlist. the chancellor, however, said her deal will make people worse off. does the prime minister agree? he doesn't appear to be here this morning to be consulted. the prime minister, as ever, defended her deal. what we see behind the analysis

we have published today, and indeed the chancellor recognised this morning, is that our deal is the best deal available forjobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. the government analysed different brexit outcomes. it found the prime minister's deal would be better for the economy than no—deal, but overall any brexit would make us poorer than staying in the eu. yes, it's true, if we are only looking at the economic benefits, remaining in the eu is a slightly better economic outcome than the prime minister's deal. but the prime minister's deal gives an outcome remarkably close to the benefits of staying in the european union, the economic benefits, while having all the political benefits of being independent of the eu. that's why we think this is such a good deal. brexiteers claimed the government was using flawed forecasts to scare people into backing

the prime minister's plan. i'm afraid that we must be ready for project fear 2.0. in a desperate attempt to reverse the result of the 2016 referendum, we're undoubtedly going to hear the most hair—raising stories and improbable forecasts. the treasury's forecasts in the past have almost never been right, and have more often been dramatically wrong. in less an two weeks, mp5 will decide whether to back the prime minister's brexit deal. there is a furious fight going on between those who want different outcomes. expect this economic analysis to be seized on by both sides as they try to shape opinion of what's best for the country's future. alex forsyth, bbc news, westminster. let's talk to our chief political correspondent, vicki young, who's at westminster. each day, the prime minister must wa ke each day, the prime minister must wake up wondering if things can get worse. and, actually, she is not

disappointed most days. no, i think she is still determined, and downing street is determined they can turn this around before the 11th of december. her plan is to get out there, not just with december. her plan is to get out there, notjust with mp5 here in the house of commons trying to persuade them, but getting out around the country. she is off to scotland this afternoon to get her message to the front line, if you like, to businesses and the people that will be most affected by the repercussions brexit, whatever kind of brexit it turns out to be. that is what the analysis is about today, giving different scenarios about what might happen 15 years from the moment where we leave the transition period. but it has to be said that a lot of the discussion around here, amongst mp5 and ministers, is what happens if she doesn't get that deal through. today, the shadow chancellorjohn mcdonnell through. today, the shadow chancellor john mcdonnell has through. today, the shadow chancellorjohn mcdonnell has been discussing labour's approach with laura kuenssberg. we want a deal that will protect jobs and the economy. if we can't achieve that, the government can't achieve that — we think we can — if the government can't achieve that, we should have a general election. which isn't going to happen.

you know as well as i do that's very difficult to do because of the nature of the legislation david cameron brought forward. if that is not possible, we will be calling on the government tojoin us in a public vote. again, it's difficult tojudge, at each stage, but that is the sequence i think we'll inevitably go through over this period. so "inevitable" if a vote of no—confidence wouldn't bring down the government and a general election, it is inevitable, to use the word you have just used, there would be another vote? our policy is if we cannot get a general election, the other option, which we've kept on the table, is a people's vote. john mcdonnell. let's discuss this a bit more. i'm joined john mcdonnell. let's discuss this a bit more. i'mjoined by john mcdonnell. let's discuss this a bit more. i'm joined by chris skidmore, conservative mp, and the labourmp skidmore, conservative mp, and the labour mp alison mcgovern. john mcdonnell saying it is inevitable if there is no general election that labour would look at another referendum? i thinkjohn isjust reflecting what a lot of the public

are concluding, which is that the house of commons looks set to be in deadlock now. what are the options? we would all like a general election, that is obvious. we are labour. but if we can't get a general election, what do we do? i think a lot of people are concluding that the only way out of this is to offer the public the final say in a people's vote. what do you say to that? it seems as of the house of commons can't decide, the politicians might end up failing those people that voted in the referendum? the people have their say, over 550 members of parliament voted to hand that power to the people and they overwhelmingly, 17.4 million people, the largest democratic majority on one side, voted to leave the european union. actually, it is our responsibility as members of parliament to look very carefully at the deal the prime minister has laid on the table. i personally think it is a good deal. crucially, it ends freedom of movement, which i think my constituents voted for when they voted to leave. i hope before we get to devote all members of parliament

will reflect on what that democratic process was in 2016 and why we do need to leave all the 29th of march. having said that he backed the deal theresa may has got, even under that scenario that she has, the analysis today suggesting the uk economy would be £100 billion worse off than it would be if we stayed in the eu? well, the analysis is very long—term, over 15 years. well, the analysis is very long—term, over15 years. it well, the analysis is very long—term, over 15 years. it does not cover the future of the european union and what future deals the european union might sign. 0ne union and what future deals the european union might sign. one of the reasons why i was a remain voting mp, and i would actually vote to leave now, is because the eu is moving ina to leave now, is because the eu is moving in a very different direction, we are seeing the formulation of a eu army, increased encouragement towards a centralised fiscal position with the eu, i don't think you will be the same eu in 15 years' time and the document doesn't reflect that. alison mcgovern, are you not risking by voting against this deal the inevitable legal consequence, heading towards the exit door and heading towards it

with no deal? it is not inevitable. we know that article 50 can be extended or revoked. but what chris forgets is that between the eu referendum we actually had a general election and the prime minister then put her approach to the british public and lost seats, not gained seats. we are in a hung parliament, a very difficult situation. that is why it would have been better to get cross— party why it would have been better to get cross—party agreement before the negotiations. having not done that, we are now at the almost inevitable deadlock in the house of commons, and the question we have all got to ask ourselves is, what do we do to unlock this situation? that is why john mcdonnell and others are concluding if we do not have another general election, the only way through this is to give the public the final say. do you get any sense from your colleagues that they are coming round to this idea from the prime minister, given what we have seen prime minister, given what we have seenin prime minister, given what we have seen in house of commons over the last week or so? there doesn't seem to be the support from her own side. the key thing is that there is no alternative when it comes to the

deal. it has been laid on the table, the eu are not going to reopen that. the alternatives are no brexit, or no—deal. 0ne the alternatives are no brexit, or no—deal. one of those is economic catastrophic, the other is politically catastrophic. there are members of parliament, chris davis, who came out yesterday and said he was thinking about joining the who came out yesterday and said he was thinking aboutjoining the stand up was thinking aboutjoining the stand up to brexit campaign, but he is now backing the deal because he recognises what it is not perfect, and it does reflect the 52—48 split, taking back freedom of movement, on the other hand we are ensuring we have a form of a future customers partnership in place. i think it is a great free trade deal that was signed, one of the most ambitious. we are not signing anything! not yet... it is 27 pages of a long wish list that is unachievable. we still do not know where we are going to end up. we do know enough to know that the government not have mishandled this. a lot of the promises that were made in and around the referendum will not be fulfilled. having had that general

election, which is farfrom a ring endorsement of the prime minister and her policies, i cannot see that the house of commons, hung parliament that it is, can resolve this. it's about compromise. this is a divorce. every divorce ends in compromise. but this is the best possible deal that we will get from the eu. they have made a number of compromise themselves around the jurisdiction of the european court ofjustice. they jurisdiction of the european court of justice. they wanted jurisdiction of the european court ofjustice. they wanted that to control the entire structure of the deal and that is not happening. and we cannot actually sign future trade deals or sign up to a future trade relationship until we have technically left the european union. actually, when we say we haven't signed anything yet, we cannot until they go to the limitation period. signed anything yet, we cannot until they go to the limitation periodm is like signing the divorce papers before you even know what assets are being get by whom. you nail it down and then say, are you finally sure? you make my point quite well, that we are basically deciding this before we really know what it means.

i think that is a mistake. alison mcgovern and chris skidmore, thank you very much indeed. we are going to see more of this kind of lively debate because the house of commons will have five days to debate the deal before the crucial vote on the 11th of december. well refereed! as part of her push to gain support for her brexit deal, theresa may is in scotland today. 0ur correspondent, james shaw, is in glasgow. the issues there, well, the word fish is going to come? it is, you absolutely right. she is visiting a factory somewhere near glasgow, judging by the view of the river clyde behind, it is going to be a slightly wet reception she is going to get. hopefully she will be indoors most of the time. the message she will try to put across is that her deal will create certainty in the future, amid the uncertainty that there is at the moment, and it will protectjobs and that it will create new

opportunities with a free trade deal with the european union, potentially with the european union, potentially with other countries as well. you are absolutely right, the fish is going to be one of the things that people will ask care about. it is a totemic part of the scottish economy and many people, including a lot of conservative mp5 in scotland, think that there is a potential threat to the industry by any future deal that might be struck between the eu and the uk. essentially, their concern is that the territorial control that the uk will have after brexit might be traded away in order to get advantages, tariff free trade, from the uk into the european union. so, one of the things she will probably do is try to offer more reassurance about that. not least because her mp5 in scotland may be amongst those that are feeling they might vote against her deal at the moment. so, by coming here and by trying to show

that she is persuading ordinary people, workers and employers that the deal will work for them, i think she also wants a message to filter through to her mp5 that there is a growing body of support. the snp would completely disagree with that. they say from make scotland poorer as well,. thank you very much. a woman who was groomed and raped as a teenager is demanding a law change because she says her attacker has been invited to play a role in her son's life. sammy woodhouse, who's waived her right to annonymity, says rotherham council approached arshid hussain even though he's in prison for raping her, as a child. jon donnison has the story. sammy woodhouse was just one victim of the rotheram grooming scandal. across the town, hundreds

of young girls were sexually abused by gangs of men. when sammy was just 15 she was raped, and became pregnant. she had a son. in 2016 this man, arshid hussein, the biological father, was jailed for 35 years for abusing more than 50 girls. sammy says he has now been contacted by rotherham council in relation to a case in the family court. they asked him to apply for custody, so then he could make all the parental decisions. so how that would work, because, you know, he's in prison for 35 years, he would decide where my son would live, and make all the decisions. then my son would go and visit him in prison, which is just absolutely outrageous. rotherham council says the case relates to family court proceedings, on which it's unable to give details. in a statement a spokesperson said... but some are now calling for a change in the law.

i think most people would be horrified to find that a convicted rapist could apply through the courts to access their children, but in this case the social worker went to him and encouraged him to apply for custody. now, i think they've got the law wrong in this case, but as a parliament we have a responsibility to make it crystal clear in law that convicted rapists have absolutely no parental rights when it comes to accessing their children. and sammy woodhouse says her case is not unique, she says there are many more women who faced years of abuse, now fighting to protect their children. jon donnison, bbc news. you're watching afternoon live, these are our headlines... leaving the eu could cost between 60 and 200 billion pounds — according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. a rape survivor in rotherham has waived her anonymity,

to call for a law change amid claims a man who raped her has been invited to play a role in her son's life. two people have died as sydney is deluged by the heaviest november rain in decades, receiving a month's worth injust two hours. in sport, a big night for tottenham in the champions league. they must beat inter milan to keep their qualification hopes alive. the former republic of ireland striker robbie keane has announced his retirement from football. he will work as assistant manager to mick mccarthy, who has been appointed as the country's new manager. and tyson fury faces deontay wilder in their world heavyweight title fight in los angeles this weekend. fury has lost over ten stone in 12 months in preparation for the fight. i will be back with more on those stories at half—past. wales' first minister, carwynjones, has been giving evidence at the inquest into the death of the former welsh minister carl sargeant, who took his own life last november.

mrjones was criticised for sacking mr sargeant after he was accused of inappropriate behaviour towards women — allegations he denied. 0ur reporter tomos morgan is in ruthin in north wales. simon, carwynjones simon, carwyn jones has just simon, carwynjones hasjust been answering questions regarding an interview he gave the bbc the night before carl sargea nt interview he gave the bbc the night before carl sargeant was found dead in his home on the 7th of november. in the interview, he describes the allegations as incidents, and he was asked by the coroner, john gibbons, he was asked about the word he used. the coroner asked him if he saw a difference between the word and allegations. carwynjones said it was quite clear from that news report that it is about allegations of inappropriate conduct against women. now, carl sargeant was sacked from his role as a ministerfour

days before he died, as there were allegations of inappropriate... inappropriate... towards women. he was also suspended from the labour party. ca rwyn was also suspended from the labour party. carwyn jones was was also suspended from the labour party. carwynjones was also asked this afternoon about when he received the first allegations against mr sargent. he received an anonymous letter in 2014, and mr jones said, i rememberthe anonymous letter in 2014, and mr jones said, i remember the words, he is not fit to be around women. estherjones said he had spoken to mr sargent about this letter and told him to be careful about how he conducted himself and how much he drank. later, there were more rumours in 2017, and mrjones said rumours in 2017, and mrjones said rumours are rife in politics, so nothing was done about them and he wasn't aware what those rumours were. things changed when he was made aware of the names of the people were those rumours came from,

and he decided, in my mind, he had and he decided, in my mind, he had an obligation to look further into what had happened. the inquest continues in ruthin and the first minister is continuing to give evidence into the inquest of carl sargeant. a 16—year—old boy is to be charged with assault over an attack on a 15—year—old syrian refugee at a school in huddersfield. a video, shared on social media, shows the attacker dragging the boy to the floor by his neck before pouring water over his face. the uk's worst performing mental health trust has been told it has only weeks to improve safety, after inspectors rated it inadequate for a third time. the care quality commission says managers at the norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust had repeatedly failed to protect patients who were harming themselves due to a lack of care. the regulator says the trust has failed to address problems going back years. nikki fox reports. just some of the families failed by england's worst performing mental health trust. many taking their lives before getting the help they needed.

19—year—old nyall brown from norfolk died in may. a popular bmx—er, his family say they were denied crisis care and were told by staff to go private. he was speaking like a 14—year—old. he could only feel the left side of his leg. there was a lot of stuff going on up there that wasn't right. he broke down in the shower that night and said, "why am i going crazy?" we said, "you are not going crazy, nyall." he couldn't hardly breathe, he couldn't hardly talk and we were sent home with him. the inspection report says people are self harming while waiting for care and the trust doesn't have a thread of safety running through it. it says thousands are waiting with no help, wards are unsafe and there have been more deaths after failing to learn from mistakes. when people are in their hour of need, often extremely vulnerable, they need to have that confidence that those services are safe and of an appropriate quality. from this publication,

it suggests that it is time for the secretary of state to step in and take action. there are very significant issues that need to be sorted out. i think we need to look across the board at what the solutions might be. there's already work under way, for instance, on improving integration with other health services in norfolk and sussex and suffolk, which at the moment isjust not good enough. the trust says it's disappointed with the report's findings, but fully accepts them and is determined to get things right. nyall‘s father says he was told by staff they understand how he feels. he says that is impossible. nicki fox, bbc news. a couple from hampshire have been found guilty of causing or allowing the death of a 3 week old baby. when stanley davis died, doctors found he had 42 fractures on his body. his mother, roxanne davis and her partner, sam davies, were both convicted of the relatively rare crime of allowing or causing the death of a child. police were unable to bring murder or manslaughter charges

against davis or davies because they couldn't tell which one had delivered the fatal blow to the baby. a child safeguarding review has now been launched into the case. from winchester crown court, duncan kennedy reports. just a few days old, this was sta nley just a few days old, this was stanley davis in march of last year, ata time stanley davis in march of last year, at a time when he was not in the violent clutches of those that were meant to love him. they were his mother, roxanne davis, and her partner, sam davies, who were today found guilty of causing or allowing sta nley‘s found guilty of causing or allowing stanley's death. stanley spent his short life in this block of flats in gosport. it was here that he was subject to the violence that killed him. that violence led to 42 fractures to stanley's arms, legs, ribs and skull. but this is one of

the rare cases where there wasn't the rare cases where there wasn't the evidence to determine which of the evidence to determine which of the defendants did it. by the time sta nley the defendants did it. by the time stanley died, he was just 24 days old. there has been no of shouting and screaming. at one point, police we re and screaming. at one point, police were called to the flat when a heard shouting. both davies and davis, here holding stanley, were cocaine users. the police see stanley is unharmed and they leave. all right then... next few days, the pair are filmed at the flats. then davies makes a distressed phone call a medical centre on the day stanley received his worst injury. the following day, roxanne davis is

seen the following day, roxanne davis is seen with stanley, just hours before he is rushed to hospital. he died a week later. the level of injuries was truly horrific, and it was a difficult case to investigate. i think for the community it is difficult that somebody as young as 24 days could have suffered this amount of injuries and we're just pleased we have been able to get justice for him. stanley did have some contact with health and social services agencies, and a safeguarding children inquiries now under way. but what role his mother, roxanne davis, played in his death, or that of her partner, sam davies, may never be known. their denials, lying at the heart of a life that came to be measured in days. in australia, thousands of people have been told to leave their homes, as bushfires devastate parts of queensland. a catastrophic fire warning has now been issued, for the first time in the state's history.

extreme weather conditions have also hit new south wales, with torrential rain and flooding in sydney, from where, hywel griffith reports. fleeing the fires while they still can. for 8,000 queenslanders there's has been no choice but to leave their homes behind. bush fires are a familiar threat in australia — but not here and not at this time of year. a heatwave, combined with fierce winds, created what the emergency services called a firestorm. it's not normal for queensland. people will burn to death. their normal approaches probably won't work if the situation develops as it is predicted to develop. it's no different to a category—five cyclone coming straight to your door. as the day ended, more than 130 fires continue to burn. some homes have been destroyed but rescue teams have stopped

lives from being lost. 800 miles down the coast it was a very different storm testing the authorities as sydney was battered by a month's worth of rain in a day. the worst downpour in over 30 years brought four inches of water. as the storm swirled, flash flooding began. paramedics were left dealing with four times the usual number of car crashes. two people were killed during the storm. summer may only be a few days away in australia. but wild, unpredictable weather is testing many people's resolve. now it's time for a look at the weather with helen willetts. hello, we had a change in our weather type through the night. the mild air arrived, but with it the wind and rain replacing the frost and fog. it's really quite nasty out there.

the heaviest rain continues for the northern part of the uk, throughout the remainder of the day. in fact, the wind will escalate through this evening. if anything, the wind is more of a feature across england and wales, through the remainder of the day. then they all blow away and abate a little bit as we go through the night time period. however, not for long. it stays mild, given the wind direction and all the cloud. we've got more rain pushing northwards towards the scottish borders by morning. and this time, the winds could be a notch up across england and wales. there is some concern about how much this next area of low pressure will develop. there are warnings, and they are on the website, stay tuned if you have travel plans in the morning. it looks awful, doesn't it? in fact, travel plans for the next 48 hours, heavy rain clearing from england and wales but heavy showers will follow. those lively winds starting to ease a little bit. still relatively mild, i suppose. but there's more unsettled weather to come throughout the remainder of the week. this is bbc news — our latest headlines. leaving the eu could cost between 60 and 200 billion pounds — according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may insists that the economy

would continue to grow and jobs would be protected a woman who was raped as a teenager claims that rotherham council has offered the man who attacked her the chance to play a role in her son's life. sydney has been deluged by the heaviest november rain it has experienced in decades, causing flash—flooding, traffic chaos and power cuts. at least two deaths have been blamed on the storm. harry leslie smith, the activist and campaigner, who called himself the world's oldest rebel, has died at the age of 95. and after nearly a month of fiercely contested play, the world chess championship will be decided in a series of fast—paced tie—brea kers. following 12 draws in twelve regular games, the ultimate decider could be the sudden death game called armageddon. sport now on afternoon live withjohn watson. it's a big night for spurs in the champions league tonight. tottenham and liverpool are both in action in

the champions league tonight — both with plenty to do if they're to keep their hopes of qualifying alive. for totttenham, it's very simple. fail to beat inter milan and they're out of the competition, after failing to win any of their first three games. and for manager mauricio pochettino he wants to keep their chances alive. you i've think it is important because it is going to give us hope it is going to give us that game eight different reality and fight to go to the next stage of the champions league. it is a decisive game but for me every game is so important. liverpool still have a bit of work to do as well. they've got to beat paris saint germain in paris, their star players are back on their site. they also have to hope that

red star beat napoli. sport and politics often collide and it is affecting arsenal this time. arsenal trained in london earlier today ahead of their europa league match against the ukrainian side vorskla poltava tomorrow. the match has been moved to kiev amid security concerns. ukraine's parliament backed a presidential plan to impose martial law in part of the country after russia captured three of its naval vessels and 23 crew members on sunday. one of the affected regions was the city of poltava — and arsenal's match against vorskla will now take place at the capital's 0limpiyskiy stadium, which is home to dynamo kiev. eden hazard will miss chelsea's match against paok salonika tomorrow with an ankle injury as the london side look to confirm top spot in their europa league group. hazard has an ankle injury after last saturday's defeat to tottenham but should be fit to play against fulham on sunday. victor moses is also out with coach maurizio sarri likely to make changes head of the 10 matches his side have to play in december. he had an injury, a back injury, and

now the ankle. i think he has lost a lot of training so it is normal that at the moment he is getting to the top of his physical condition, but only for training and the couple of matches before according to the best level of physical condition. robbie keane has announced his retirement from football. the 38—year—old played for the likes of tottenham, liverpool and celtic and spent the last year playing in india. here he is scoring for the republic or ireland at the world cup in 2002. he's their record goalscorer, and will become their new assistant manager working alongside mick mccarthy. there's been an increase in reported discrimination abuse in football for a sixth successive year.

the anti racism group kick it out found the numbers of reported cases of racist and homophobic abuse had grown again — as it has done year on year. the biggest increase came in disability discrimination — the figures were compiled at all levels of the game. and there's a big fight for tyson fury this weekend. he challenges deontay wilder for the wbc heavyweight title in los angeles. ahead of the fight they both took time out of their training schedule to meet the la county fire teams who've been dealing with those horrendous wild fires. and fury took the opportunity to draw attention to another big problem in los angeles. there are a lot of homeless people on the streets here, more than i have ever seen in my life. lam i am staying in downtown la. if you go five minutes down the road, that thousands of homeless people. you think you might be in a third world country but it is a crisis situation and something needs to be done. i am just an outsider with

an opinion but it is a situation happening all over the world especially in the uk as well. tyson fury speaking ahead of his boat with deontay wilder on saturday. that's all the sport for now. we are staying with the theme. it's not usually a sport which hits the headlines, but the world chess championship could be heading for armageddon... that's because, after nearly a month of fiercely contested play and 12 consecutive draws, the final is now being decided by a series of fast—paced tie—breakers. american fabiano caruana and norwiegan magnus carlsen are both grandmasters. they're currently facing off in four shortened games and if no winner is crowned, the games are shortened still — until one final game of armageddon chess. the winner will take home nearly £900,000. if that didn't make much sense, hopefully our guest can explain it a bit better. sarah hegarty is a chess player and former uk under 18 champion. we arejust

we are just looking at these pictures. can you explain who is winning at the moment? yes, so they have played 12 classical games and a great one has been a drop which is unprecedented, but they have actually been really exciting games and now it has gone to the rapid place. the first match kicked off at three p:m.. i was watching it before icame into three p:m.. i was watching it before i came into the studio and it looked like magnus was on top. the action is probably taking place right now and it is very exciting. he plays white in this first games would be expected to push for the wind. that is clearly commentary on this and i have never heard jess commentary in my life, can be listening? this will not happen. the big word that nobody will say, this will not happen. i think magnus will be pushing for a wind for the rest of the game.”

don't know about you, i can understand why people get completely and totally gone into this. this is being played in london? yes. just explain the whole timing issue because they played a number of games so far with a time limit but each time there is a drop, they shorten the time? so they played the first 12 games and the classical format so that is one game and they are very slow games. normally would have a result by the end of that and somebody be crowned champion, but because it is equal and every game has been a product has gone on to tie—break so today is a lot of more exciting for the audience because the action happens very quickly, and today we will have a world champion, whether magnus fabiano we don't know, and today there will be a result. there will be a 2018 champion today. apart from the

money, there's a lot at stake. he is striving to be the first us champion since the legendary bobby fischer? magnus has been world champion now for five years and he has magnus has been world champion now forfive years and he has been magnus has been world champion now for five years and he has been on top of the game but fabiano is now competing with them and use on the last match of the classical games, magnus was any better position and he was so nervous he a draw. he offered a draw? everyone was in shock because he knew he was any better position he offered a prop and nobody could believe it. so what was that about? i think it was the nerves. because he played black in the last game he decided the draw would be great, and because he's very good at the play—offs, so he had it in his head before the game i am going to get a draw and that is what i want and i think that was his strategy and he didn't want to deviate from that. as a player

yourself, the pressure of time, presumably that is when mistakes get made? that is the thing. in the classical games they can work things out when mistakes happen and that is why it has gone to a draw because they have been so careful but now it is rapid played they don't have time, they have only got 20 minutes plus ten seconds for these games, so it is high—stakes, but magnus is number one in the world and fabiano was number ten whereas in classical games there are numbers are one and two. in terms of chess, they are rock stars? yes! the absolutely fantastic and magnus has been a model and they are very famous in the chess world. he has been a model? yes. really? people may have their preconceptions about chess players but are these two menu would

happily have a drink with in the bar, are they find? yes, we go to the bar and hang out and have a drink when it is all over. and they both have a sense of humour. again, people think of chess players as deepin people think of chess players as deep in thought and obsessed with that particular moment, the game of chess? that is something that i personally would like to change because i considered as all pretty cool! the odd person is a bit different but it is good to be different. chess is just different but it is good to be different. chess isjust phenomenal, such a great game, so many different characters involved and great people andi characters involved and great people and i don't like the perception that is just and i don't like the perception that isjust for geeky and i don't like the perception that is just for geeky players. you and i don't like the perception that isjust for geeky players. you are changing it. when you look at how they play can you tell much about them as people? can you tell a risk taker, somebody who might do that thing? yes, probably not at this

level as in they are so good at chess that they don't take ridiculous risks. if i referred back to that game i was talking about when magnus decided to offer a draw, it is strange because it was sort of a risk—free position, and afterwards he said he didn't really have a plan, so they take risks, they take a lot more risks in the tie—breaks today which is why it is so exciting for the audience, because they have got to. and presumably when you're sitting opposite someone you have played many times, do you understand how each other plays and what their wea knesses how each other plays and what their weaknesses are? that is the difference now. we have computers analysing chess and every single game you play goes on the internet if not at the moment you play them in an hourorso, if not at the moment you play them in an hour or so, so what we do the fully big matches the look of our opponent on the database and strategise and work out what line we are going to play. the thing about

this world championship match is fabiano's preparation and team have done a much betterjob than magnus, and that is why he has not been able to get any deal chances apart from the first game. that sounds almost like dirty tricks, but a detective agency has been hired for this series to ensure no one is cheating? 0bviously with computers you get all these problems. we have had quite a lot of cases in the chess world about cheating, one in england very recently, but it comes with advantages as well and now going to major tournaments we go through metal detectors and that kind of thing, but people have been cheating through watches and putting things in shoes. how do you cheat with shoes? i think, i can't in shoes. how do you cheat with shoes? ithink, i can't remember, a blind person was caught cheating because he had to have a special device to talk about the merits, like that, and also children who

have phones in toilets and go to the same cubicle and things like that. it isa same cubicle and things like that. it is a problem but we are doing everything to stop it happening and it would be a bit silly to try to cheat at chess! so chess is fun and cool? there was one world championship match were one player accused the other of cheating a long time ago. basically, when the computers first came in and started being good at chess, people thought, what if they are using a computer? and even when garry kasparov played deep blue, he thought the blue was cheating and there was a person behind ibm making some of the myths, because the blue had been programmed to be very materialistic and one particular move he wasn't and was playing like a human might, more positionally. it is absolutely fascinating. who do you want to see

when today? i am a massive magnus fan. they are both great people and i went to new york to watch magnus two years ago and he is very inspirational. however, they are both great players and i want the best player to win. interestingly yesterday garry kasparov the former world champion tweeted that magnus is not coping well with the nerves and his idea of who will win is going to change. i want to show the game right now. what is your assessment of what is going on? white, which is magnus, is pushing for the when, he is better, and that is the kind of game, they are analysing it now, but magnus is pushing for a when and if he achieves that it will be massive because in the next game, fabiano will have two win to bounce back

otherwise he is in trouble. predict the next move. i can see the analysis board, the other one is it that small so let's have a look. well it's fabiano's move so what is he going to do? i can't see because of the red things going up. it's gone away now. it is now white's move so he will probably recapture the pawn on d4. we will do this everyday, i think. the pawn on d4. we will do this everyday, ithink. the the pawn on d4. we will do this everyday, i think. the under 18 chess champion and we will hear a lot more from you, i am sure. thank you for speaking to us. thank you. that's great! what a great game, do you play? not like that! i can hang on. bring us the business news in just a moment but first the

headlines. leaving the eu could cost between 60 and £200 billion according to the government's on forecasts. theresa may says the economy would continue to grow and jobs be protected. the woman raped as a teenager claims rotherham council has offered her rapist a chance to play a role in her son's life. syd ney her son's life. sydney has experienced its heaviest november rain in decades. at least two deaths have been blamed on the storm. leaving the eu could cost between 60 and 200 billion pounds — your business headlines on avenue in life. mild inflation has returned after shop prices rose for only the third time in five years in november. higher global cereal prices have pushed up on the prices of several foods included in the shop price index. but it appears many high street retailers continue to keep clothing prices lower partly in order to compete with the online stores. her majesty's revenue and customs says the number of reported scams is up 20% over the year, with criminals trying

to get your personal financial data via promises of tax refunds or threats of investigation. the department is getting a staggering 85,000 reports a month. the hmrcs head of cyber security said tackling the problem is a bit of a cat—and—mouse game. the price of a call to directory inquiries will be capped at £3.65 for 90 seconds. phone industry regulator 0fcom said it is responding to a "steep" rise in prices. the most popular service, 118118, charges £11.23 for a 90 second call, the regulator said. more than a million people a year still use the service. i have got a list of things to talk about, and says he married on is here to get physical. we are talking about keeping fit, something you know a lot about. that is me in the

background. by the ambulance. this is about financial incentives to get you fit. this massive insurance company and apple watch have done a survey of 400,000 people in a way in which they have been offering people financial incentives to keep fit, so for example, cinema tickets and retail vouchers... for example, cinema tickets and retail vouchers. .. free popcorn! popcorn is good for you. beyond seat used popcorn during her by. popcorn with chilli powder on top. —— beyonce. they found a 34% increase in activity for those using financial incentives. they say it is up financial incentives. they say it is up to financial services and business now to take a bigger role in getting people fit. fitness pays, and paying for fitness in getting people fit. fitness pays, and paying forfitness is in getting people fit. fitness pays, and paying for fitness is one way of getting is off the couch and it

running on whatever you do. let's stop now to our guest. kate is the founder of push mind and body. stop now to our guest. kate is the founder of push mind and bodym stop now to our guest. kate is the founder of push mind and body. it is a corporate wellness company and we help people, teams and companies work better. basically we think people, the way that you feel profoundly impact the way you perform. what do you make of these findings? i think it is true and certainly within the workforce if we can get people exercising then they work better. they get a chance to get reenergised and refocused and are much more alert and happier. looking at the actual study that has been done, the interesting thing is looking at their study, wouldn't you expect people who are more into fitness anyway to take up incentives to be set? the point is, whether or not people do something it is

emotional logic and what incentives do is provide the emotion and the drive to overcome the barriers people have, meaning they are not most of an off or fear failure or haven't got the time, and the incentive to help them overcome that. and you might argue, is it your company's that. and you might argue, is it your compa ny‘s responsibility to keep you fit or don't do yourself? to be honest with you, we'll have a responsibility, individuals and companies, but the point is companies, but the point is companies benefit when people are fitter and healthier and happier, companies benefit when people are fitterand healthierand happier, so it isa fitterand healthierand happier, so it is a huge opportunity to help a lot of people at the same time. thank you. so there you have it. i do take the stairs, you see the spiral stairs there, i try and use them. watch out for me after this bulletin! the market is not looking particularly good, the worry is the forecast for a brexit and the impact

on the uk economy, the government report. that has had an impact. has this not been factored in? the markets are worried about that. the other worry is italy. what he is now the european union will reject italy's latest concession on its budget, trying to fiddle... fiddle is the wrong word. correct their budget, exactly. talk to you later. it's being suggested thousands of women who experience trauma while giving birth, are often being left with undiagnosed mental illnesses. a report from the royal college of psychiatrists, says unexpected problems can leave mothers experiencing signs of post—traumatic stress disorder. look north's jamie coulson has the details. that's a mister. when anna simpson gave birth to her daughter, macey, it should have been one of the happiest days of her life. but when complications led to an emergency caesarean section, it rapidly became one of the most frightening.

there was a lot of people around me — they were kind of ripping my clothes off, ripping my jewellery off. there was an anaesthetist was trying to put a cannula in my hand, so i felt as if i was being attacked. in the weeks that followed, anna developed symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder, or ptsd, including vivid flashbacks and deep distress when reminded of the birth. many people may traditionally associate post traumatic stress disorder with soldiers on the battlefield or the victims of violent crime. but, for women who have had a traumatic birth, it can bejust as real. and without help, it can lead to long—term harm. research suggests 4% of women in the uk, or around 30,000 a year, develop ptsd after a traumatic birth. but experts believe many others could go undiagnosed or are misdiagnosed. women are currently being failed by the nhs in terms of the way that birth trauma is detected, diagnosed and treated. there is a lack of perinatal provision across the united kingdom and women simply are not able to access trauma informed services routinely.

nhs england say any form of mental ill health is a concern, but great strides have been made, with 7000 more women treated last year and specialist mental health services planned throughout england. following treatment, anna is now looking to the future instead of fearing the past. jamie coulson, bbc news. harry leslie smith, the veteran campaigner for the poor and for refugees, has died. he was 95. he grew up in poverty in yorkshire, living through the great depression, and served as a pilot in the second world war. but it's his work championing human rights and the welfare state, for which he'll be best remembered. richard galpin, looks back at his life. if i close my eyes i can smell the poverty that oozes from the dusky tenement streets of my boyhood.

it was this speech at the labour party conference four years ago about his life and the importance of the nhs that propelled harry leslie smith into the limelight as a passionate activist. the speech reducing some to tears. growing up in yorkshire during the great depression, he had to provide for his family from the age of seven, working as a barrow boy after his father lost his job. and during the second world war he joined the raf at the age of 22 serving as a pilot. the huge number of people he had witnessed displaced by the war led to him campaigning on behalf of refugees and migrants right up to the last years of his life. including visiting the makeshift camps in northern france from where many tried to reach this country. but he also took to the media to highlight what was another key campaigning issue for him, poverty in britain. a massive amount of people living almost payday to

payday. this of course something he experienced as a child. and then late in his life he decided the world was going backwards and he felt he had to stand up and be counted and campaign to save the nhs, the homeless and poor and refugees, and he was a moral light in the world. tributes have been pouring in since the announcement he died. he had been with his son in canada thought to have pneumonia. his son has vowed to follow in his footsteps. looking back at the life of harry leslie smith. time for a look at the weather with helen willetts. good afternoon, wet and windy courtesy of storm diane but the difference between today and

yesterday is the milder air which has arrived on this band of rain so not called as such but obviously masked by all the cloud and wind and rain, tied in with this peak area of low pressure, still together is severe gales in the north and west. but out in the atlantic is tomorrow's troublemaker. another developing area of low pressure which could become nastier than today. keeping a close eye on that coming in quick succession to the lane today and yesterday, so some fairly nasty conditions for now. if you're heading onto the road sorts of spray and surface water and the wind is likely to be disruptive. nothing exceptional but gusts of 70 mph to be expected but not nice to drive in. through the evening and overnight we blow the band of rain, quiet in stone for a time but towards morning more rain rushing in

on the next developing area of low pressure. so a mild night because of all the wind and rain" around but pretty miserable as we start off, because we might have a nasty area of low pressure across parts of the uk. still some uncertainty as to the detail but it looks like gusts of 40-50, detail but it looks like gusts of 40—50, as we have seen today, but possibly upping the ante. we could see gusts possibly upping the ante. we could see gusts across possibly upping the ante. we could see gusts across england and wales as high as 6070. all the rain in similar areas. 0nce as high as 6070. all the rain in similar areas. once it blows away, lots of showers waiting in the wings, but there should be some dry and bright spells in between, especially across england and wales. 13-14 is especially across england and wales. 13—14 is above average for the time of year. 13—14 is above average for the time of yea r. low 13—14 is above average for the time of year. low pressure continuing to drive the weather and to friday, bringing in showers, but by the end of play on friday we are looking to the atlantic for the next area of low pressure. a very mobile weather

system, fewer showers generally on friday but not quite as mild as it has been, still not too bad given the time of year but into the weekend, some rain from most parts, saturday and sunday. hello, you're watching afternoon live. leaving the eu could cost between £60 billion and £200 billion according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may denies it means we'll be poorer. 0ur deal is the best deal available for jobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. this analysis does not show that we will be poorer in the future than we are today. the government's economic service forecasts published today are actually meaningless, because there's no actual deal to model. just a 26—page wishlist. anger as a survivor of child exploitation claims that rotherham council has offered the man who raped her the chance to play a role in her son's life i want a change in law to ensure

that no rapist can access children conceived through rape and abuse. i want a full investigation, not just into what's happened to my case, but a national one. wales' first minister tells an inquest into the death of the former welsh minister, carl sargeant, that sexual misconduct allegations against him "could not be ignored." coming up on afternoon live, all the sport. we're talking champions league, with totte n ha m we're talking champions league, with tottenham and liverpool both in action, looking for wins to keep their hopes of qualifying for the last 16 alive. and things are getting blowy? yes, we have change the weather type from frost and fog to gales. take note, because there is more potentially tomorrow morning. also coming up — could it be chess armageddon? after a record—breaking 12 draws,two grandmasters go head to head

in a soundproofed glass box to decide the world chess championship hello, everyone. this is afternoon live. i'm simon mccoy. the governor of the bank of england will tell reporters in the next half hour his assessment of the likely economic impacts of leaving the european union — with, or without a deal. already, a major government review has suggested that the uk will be poorer, under all possible brexit scenarios, than if it remained. the study predicts that the prime minister's deal could cost the economy as much as £100 billion over 15 years, with gdp 3.9% lower. if britain leaves without a deal, it could cost the country twice as much, with gdp 9.3% lower. the analysis could complicate theresa may's attempts

to sell her brexit deal to the public, with opposition parties and scores of her own mp5, threatening to vote her plans down. but today she insisted that the economy would continue to grow and jobs would be protected. here's our political correspondent, alex forsyth. across the country, the prime minister has been trying to sell her brexit deal. yesterday she was in wales at an agricultural show before heading to northern ireland, where she met business leaders. later today, she's off to scotland, saying her plan works for the whole of the uk. are you using project fear to get a deal, prime minister? but first she had to face mp5, just as the government published analysis of the impact of brexit on the economy. questions to the prime minister! the government economic service forecasts published today are actually meaningless, because there is no actual deal to model, just a 26—page wishlist. the chancellor, however, said her deal will make people worse off. does the prime minister agree? he doesn't appear to be here this morning to be consulted. the prime minister,

as ever, defended her deal. what we see behind the analysis we have published today, and indeed the chancellor recognised this morning, is that our deal is the best deal available forjobs and our economy that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of brexit. the government analysed different brexit outcomes. it found the prime minister's deal would be better for the economy than no—deal, but overall any brexit would make us poorer than staying in the eu. yes, it's true, if we are only looking at the economic benefits, remaining in the eu is a slightly better economic outcome than the prime minister's deal. but the prime minister's deal gives an outcome remarkably close to the benefits of staying in the european union, the economic benefits, while having all the political benefits of being independent of the eu. that's why we think this is such a good deal. brexiteers claimed the government

was using flawed forecasts to scare people into backing the prime minister's plan. i'm afraid that we must be ready for project fear 2.0. in a desperate attempt to reverse the result of the 2016 referendum, we're undoubtedly going to hear the most hair—raising stories and improbable forecasts. the treasury's forecasts in the past have almost never been right, and have more often been dramatically wrong. in less an two weeks, mp5 will decide whether to back the prime minister's brexit deal. there is a furious fight going on between those who want different outcomes. expect this economic analysis to be seized on by both sides as they try to shape opinion of what's best for the country's future. alex forsyth, bbc news, westminster. let's talk to our chief political correspondent, vicki young, who's at westminster. well, she is still on the tour to

sell this? yes, her plan is to get out of the country, speak to businesses, speak to people that feel they are going to be affected by brexit, and particularly by the possibility of a no—deal brexit. that is something theresa may says is the alternative option to her plan. now, today, the cabinet brexiteer minister michael gove, the environment secretary, was in front ofa environment secretary, was in front of a select committee and he was asked about that scenario, and what he felt about what the repercussions would be of a no—deal. preparing for eu exit is, on the one hand, exciting, because there are opportunities for agriculture and environment that we have discussed in this committee before, which i won't revisit now. which are, you know, potentially transformative. but one of the things that is an issue is if we do leave without a deal, then there will be things that defra

can do, and is doing, to mitigate the impact. and there are things that government can do, and opportunities. the critical question, the thing that worries me most is what the impact would be on, in particular, food exporters in the event of no—deal. lets talk to 0wen paterson, former cabinet minister. we heard from fellow brexiteer michael gove. he is concerned. he says there are huge opportunities in brexit, but he is worried about a no deal scenario, because he feels it would have a very negative impact on some exporters? yes, sadly i could not hear what he was saying so i will have to guess. i doubt this. the assumptions are that we are going to be very stupid and put up a lot of tariffs, but the european union also will. i'm rather more optimistic on that. i think we should, if we do end up going to what is called

no—deal, the world trade terms, immediately, we should take up the tusk offer way back in march of a comprehensive free trade deal, we can trigger article 34 of the wto rules, that means you can stick on zero tariffs while you negotiate. that'll be my solution on the tariffs. 0n standards, that is com pletely tariffs. 0n standards, that is completely contrary wto rules. stuff on facilitation, is all says you cannot hide behind sanitary, and put a barrier. when we leave, french cheese will be the same standard as the day before, our beef and cheese will be the same standard as the day before. it is contrary to wto rules to say this cannot come because it doesn't qualify. what do you say to people like the common factors associations, saying that plants will close and jobs will be lost. a lot of brexiteers saying that no—deal doesn't cause too much of a

problem talk about a bump on the road, but we are talking about people's jobs? why? why will people not want to buy our cars? no, the supply chain? don't see why that will happen. we had 0peration stack introduced in 2014, when the french we re introduced in 2014, when the french were on strike, we never had a script from anybody. why are they saying? that is a good question, i don't understand it. the car trade, 2196 don't understand it. the car trade, 21% of the components they buy from outside the eu, 45% i think they buy within the uk. the majority is going to be from outside or within the uk. as i've said, when there was 0peration stack, i didn't hear anything about supply chains, insulin, food, these are thus get stories. it is yet more project fear. what you say to those that put

together the report that says that a no—deal brexit, 50 years down the line, it means the uk economy is £200 billion per year worse off than it would be if we stayed in the uk? the treasury report? it is absolutely laughable, comical. these other people that said if we were stupid enough to vote to leave in the referendum, there would a catastrophic drop in economic activity. there would be a huge rise in unemployment. that did not happen. they were wrong by a margin of 100 billion. they are the outliers on this, predicting a 7% reduction. most economists vary between 1% and 4% increase in activity under no—deal. all of these scenarios, the economy grows. what we are arguing about is by how much less it grows. so, they have been heroically wrong, time and time again, and i'm quite confident there will be wrong this time. it's very interesting that they will not show the basis on which they make these

miserable convictions. apparently you can only get the benefits of free trade when you trade with the rest of the world, and do trade deals around the world, apparently free trade doesn't work. this is all nonsense. what happens if theresa may does not get a deal through parliament? we are not there yet, but it doesn't look like she has enough support. i added my question to her on monday that we know president donald tusk made a generous offer of a free—trade deal in it foundered on the issue of the northern ireland border. we have been heavily involved in this, working with dutch experts, we have come up with a solution using existing techniques and existing processes to sort out notjust the northern ireland border but other borders as well. on that basis, we can go back to our eu partners, because they are at the moment, and say we would like to take up your offer of the free trade deal. now, timers terribly tight. i think what you do is give immediate stability

and say you're going to world trade terms, but you trigger article 34 and that says while we are negotiating a free trade deal we will have zero tariffs, which is where we are at the moment. i think that would give confidence and it would be a proper way ahead. it is practical and it would work. thank you very much indeed. meanwhile, theresa may has gone to scotland with her message that her deal is the best alternative. there is plenty more to come. we will be hearing from the bank of england governor, who will be giving a news conference, that we will bring you live, with the bank's own assessment of the impact of brexit, following from the government assessment. looking further ahead to tomorrow, with four months until brexit, we have a special day of coverage looking at what it might mean for the nhs and what would

happen to nhs staffing, the supply of vital medicines or your access to new treatments. we will be answering your questions on the bbc news channel tomorrow. there are other ways to get your questions in. a woman who was groomed and raped as a teenager is demanding a law change because she says her attacker has been invited to play a role in her son's life. sammy woodhouse, who's waived her right to annonymity, says rotherham council approached arshid hussain even though he's in prison for raping her as a child. jon donnison has the story. sammy woodhouse was just one victim of the rotherham grooming scandal. across the town, hundreds of young girls were sexually abused by gangs of men. when sammy was just 15 she was raped, and became pregnant. she had a son. in 2016 this man, arshid hussein, the biological father, was jailed for 35 years for abusing more than 50 girls. sammy says he has now been contacted by rotherham council in relation to a case in the family court.

they asked him to apply for custody, so then he could make all the parental decisions. so how that would work, because, you know, he's in prison for 35 years, he would decide where my son would live, and make all the decisions. then my son would go and visit him in prison, which is just absolutely outrageous. rotherham council says the case relates to family court proceedings, on which it's unable to give details. in a statement a spokesperson said... but some are now calling for a change in the law. i think most people would be horrified to find that a convicted rapist could apply through the courts to access their children, but in this case the social worker went to him and encouraged him to apply for custody. now, i think they've got

the law wrong in this case, but i think as a parliament we have a responsibility to make it crystal clear in law that convicted rapists have absolutely no parental rights when it comes to accessing their children. and sammy woodhouse says her case is not unique, she says there are many more women who faced years of abuse, now fighting to protect their children. jon donnison, bbc news. earlier today i spoke to denise lester, specialist family lawyer and child care representative on the law society's governing council and she explained mroe about the intricacies of the law in this area. ina in a situation such as this, any situation where care proceedings are issued and the father is known, the local authority will serve them with the proceedings, the notice of intention to issue proceedings, whether or not they are on the birth certificate and whether or not they

have parental responsibility. they will also look to engage with them, both pre—proceedings and during proceedings, so as to consider contact with that father or members of the family. so, when you get a situation where someone has been raped by a man and the father is known, that is what would happen. but there is a lot of anger out there, because then what about the rights of the mother and of course of the child? i can only speak to the law, which follows due process and looks at the child's welfare, what is in the child's best interests. the issue here is that the law, as it stands, allows rapists and other abusers to participate in care and the public

law proceedings. and that means that the person that has been abused, the victim, suffers compounded abuse by the process. the council served him with a notice of the proceedings. and we are where we are.” with a notice of the proceedings. and we are where we are. i wanted to come where the council is on this and just a moment, but on what you're saying, is it conceivable that a convicted rapist could be granted access even custody... yes. and that occurs not only in public law cases, but in private law cases between individuals, because of the human rights act allowing a parent to have the right to private and family life. then you look at the child's welfare. so you do get people who are rapists, it can be marital rape, where there is a conviction, or it could be here, where children are brought to prison

and it can be by social workers or others, and they see their fathers. because the law, as it is, says that the child should have the right to have co nta ct the child should have the right to have contact or both parents. this isa have contact or both parents. this is a very, very difficult case and it is right that the issues are debated in the public arena. rotherham council, they have put out a statement, local councils, we must comply with legal requirements, often and understandably cases before family coat of emotive and arouse strong feelings among those affected. it's the council stuck between a rock and a hard place, because they have a legal duty to all those involved? yes, they are. but within that there are obviously procedures and decisions that would be made on a case—by—case basis by social workers to exclude a father or not, or to exclude a parent. i mean, basically... i know you want to be specific, but on the face of it, a case like this, it would be exactly the sort of case where the public would say this is just wrong?

yes, and! public would say this is just wrong? yes, and i understand the public outcry. and i understand the processes within the family courts are generally secret and not transparent. there are issues such as this which are in the public interest, though. quite a brave decision to go public, to wave her right to anonymity. she makes the point that she wants to get on with her life, look after her son, that is her priority. and again, a lot of people are going to say, well, that is surely the child's priority, too? yes, there also has to be a balancing act. after all, this cases in the public domain and there was a child at the centre of one has to be mindful of any reporting surrounding a particular child as well. you're watching afternoon live, these are our headlines... leaving the eu could cost between 60 and 200 billion pounds — according to the government's

own forecasts for the next 15 years. a rape survivor in rotherham has waived her anonymity, to call for a law change amid claims a man who raped her, has been invited to play a role in her son's life. wales' first minister tells an inquest into the death of the former welsh minister, carl sargeant, that sexual misconduct allegations against him "could not be ignored." and in sport, a big night for totte n ha m and in sport, a big night for tottenham in the champions league. they must beat inter milan to keep the qualification hopes alive. the former republic of ireland striker robbie keane has announced his retirement from football. he will work as the assistant manager to mick mccarthy, who has been appointed the new manager. and tyson fury faces deontay wilder in their world heavyweight title fight in los angeles this weekend. he has lost over ten stone in 12 months in preparation for the fight. i'll be back with more on those stories at half—past. wales' first minister, carwynjones, has been giving evidence at the inquest into the death

of the former welsh minister, carl sargeant, who took his own life last november. mrjones was criticised for sacking mr sargeant after he was accused of inappropriate behaviour towards women — allegations he denied. 0ur reporter tomos morgan is in ruthin in north wales. what has been happening in the last hour? well, carwyn jones is being asked regarding when he was first made aware of any of the allegations against carl sargeant. he told the inquest he was first made aware in an anonymous letter in 2014. he said he had spoken to carl sargeant about his conduct. later in 2017, he was aware of some rumours being circulated, and then he was made aware of the names of those people involved in those rumours and then he took things further. and then a letter ca me he took things further. and then a letter came in the manner of a formal complaint. that formal complaint came just days before a

planned cabinet reshuffle in which carl sa rg ea nt planned cabinet reshuffle in which carl sargeant was dismissed from his role as communities and children's secretary. the first minister said he went into the meeting with carl sa rg ea nt he went into the meeting with carl sargeant with a feeling of dread, and have lost sleep before going into that meeting when he was guided tell him he had been sacked, that there were allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards women. carwynjones was asked about atv women. carwynjones was asked about a tv interview he gave the night before carl sargea nt a tv interview he gave the night before carl sargeant was found dead, in which he used the word incidents. the coroner asked if carwynjones saw any difference in the manner of the word he used, incidents, to describe the allegations. carwyn jones said it was quite clear from the tone of that news broadcast that the tone of that news broadcast that the news report was about allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards women against carl sargeant. now, carl sargeant was found just four days after he was

sacked as ministerfor found just four days after he was sacked as minister for the welsh government. he was suspended from the labour party. the inquest continues here in ruthin and carwyn jones has almost finished giving evidence here after two and a half hours. thank you very much. a 16—year—old boy is to be charged with assault, over an attack on a 15—year—old syrian refugee at a school in huddersfield. a video, shared on social media, shows the attacker dragging the boy to the floor by his neck before pouring water over his face. the video which was posted on social media yesterday has now been viewed more than two million times. 0ur correspondent chi chi izundu says police have already carried out an investigation into the incident. you see a group of boys walking across a school playing field. 0ne appears to head—butt another before pinning him to the ground by his throat and throwing water over his face. west yorkshire police say they have and did conduct a thorough investigation when this was reported to them last month. they say that a 16—year—old boy has been interviewed and reported for summons on an assault offence,

and he is due to appear at a youth court in due course. now, they've also said that safeguarding measures have been put in place for the victim and his family. and someone's set up a gofundme page for the victim and his family, and that exceeded £65,000 and is still rising. now, the school, in a letter home to parents on their website, almondbury community school, say they are working with police. they say that the safety and welfare of the children at that school is their number one priority. and that they are taking this situation extremely seriously. in just three days one of the channel islands, sark, which is home to around 500 people, could be plunged into darkness. the island has one of the highest prices for electricity in the western world. now an independent commissioner has stepped in and said islanders are paying too much for their electricity

and is demanding a price drop. as a result, the utility company, sark electricity is threatening to pull the plug this friday. 0ur reporterjohn fernandez is outside the island's electricity company. bring us up—to—date with how we got to this point. yes, well, as you said, sark electricity‘s prices are one of the highest in the western world, 66p per kilowatt hour, a price control order made them dropped at 250 2p per kilowatt hour and the owner of the company has simply said he is not meeting the costs with that price and that means he is making a loss. therefore, this friday, he is having to pull the plug. what have the islanders been saying about this? well, it is a bit ofa mix saying about this? well, it is a bit of a mix between the spirit and nervousness of the unknown. at the moment, many of the islanders i am speaking to us saying they don't think it is going to happen. they

think it is going to happen. they think if it does happen it willjust be for a few hours and it will come back on. but people are preparing for the worst. i spoke to an 82—year—old man today who told me that he is filling his bathtub up so he has enough water to flush the toilet, for drinking water and for a cup of tea. there are those that are stockpiling water. i was in one of the island shops earlier and there was an order for 100 bottles of water. people are preparing for the worst, but there is a lot of feeling that some kind of compromise can be reached and there is a meeting of the island's government tonight, where the compromise could be found. there will be hoped that is the case, because there are quite a few freezes out there that are at risk? i was any island shop and they said they had a generator that would allow the freezer and fridge to be kept on so it would not mean losing a huge amount of stock. but that is only one of the shops, and there are other places that are not so lucky. there are places that are getting

generators, the island hall, a centre for the community, one of the hotels, that also has a generator of its own. there are places that are almost sanctuaries where they are putting vulnerable people and making sure there are provisions of the worst happens. as i said, there is a real feeling here that some kind worst happens. as i said, there is a realfeeling here that some kind of compromise can be found. i believe we have a meeting of the island's governors, moved from the normal place it is, to the island hall. they are expecting a huge turnout tonight. and they are all wondering whether their freezers could go off. if there is no freezer or telly, you have the night off, what have you got planned? my plan for the moment, as we said, meeting tonight, the power is going off, theoretically, on friday at midnight. there is a hope from me that it may be all cleared up and i can go home and sleep in my bed in guernsey. but

there is every chance that we could be here for the weekend. they have said there are provisions in place. the head of state, christopher beaumont, has written a letter to islanders saying the german occupation didn't force us to depopulate, and certainly this man won't be doing it as well. so, that kind of blitz spirit is feeding into it. i would say there are provisions at the moment. guernsey police were ona at the moment. guernsey police were on a boat coming over this morning. there were two officers on the boat in case of the worst. a representative of the lieutenant governor, the channel islands representative for the queen, guernsey's representative for the queen, is going to see what is going on. there is a real worldwide interest in what is going to happen on this small island, with these generators behind me. at the moment they are powering the entire island. it could be a very quiet room on friday at midnight. we will be talking about this again. thank you very much. in australia, thousands of people have been told to leave their homes, as bushfires devastate

parts of queensland. a catastrophic fire warning has now been issued, for the first time in the state's history. extreme weather conditions have also hit new south wales, with torrential rain and flooding in sydney, from where hywel griffith reports. fleeing the fires while they still can. for 8,000 queenslanders there's has been no choice but to leave their homes behind. bush fires are a familiar threat in australia — but not here and not at this time of year. a heatwave, combined with fierce winds, created what the emergency services called a firestorm. it's not normal for queensland. people will burn to death. their normal approaches probably won't work if the situation develops as it is predicted to develop. it's no different to a category—five cyclone coming straight to your door. as the day ended, more than 130 fires continue to burn. some homes have been destroyed but rescue teams have stopped lives from being lost.

800 miles down the coast it was a very different storm testing the authorities as sydney was battered by a month's worth of rain in a day. the worst downpour in over 30 years brought four inches of water. as the storm swirled, flash flooding began. paramedics were left dealing with four times the usual number of car crashes. two people were killed during the storm. summer may only be a few days away in australia. but wild, unpredictable weather is testing many people's resolve. time for a look at the weather. for them over there, what is

interesting is it as such an extreme and relatively close together? they have had their hottest weather ever so it has been quite extreme this spring, not even into the summer quite yet. the problem is this massive cloud that has brought the flooding is an area of low pressure and brisbane is not that far away so you get the circulation, moving away now, but because it is a circulation, it is generating strong winds around the brisbane area. so they go the opposite way around in they go the opposite way around in the southern hemisphere but that has been fanning the catastrophic fires but it is moving the other way and moving towards new zealand, already had its wettest november on record, so with more wind and rain on the way. so what is happening here? we have storm diane, not named by

the met office because it is not in their jurisdiction. the met office because it is not in theirjurisdiction. it has been named by the portuguese and french because it hit the azores first. and we don't rename them? we would not rename it. our next storm to come along would be storm deirdre. like in the hurricane season we would pick up the name of a former tropical storm coming in. that is diana. and this is diana as you can see. really very wet at the moment for the evening rush hour, so more rain to come but also concern about tomorrow. this massive cloud developing could be another potential storm but it is one of those that'll developed very quickly so we have to keep an eye on that. met office warnings at the moment but clearly we are concerned about that system because it could be one after the other. the ground is saturated so if you are travelling, headed a land gales. let's carry on

with the rather gloomy story because it is rather gloomy. we had the forgan frost and it is no gales and rain but still murky. quite horrid with all the clouds around. it clears fu n ny with all the clouds around. it clears funny time but it clears overnight. before the next band of rain comes in. that next area of low pressure i was alluding to it in the atla ntic pressure i was alluding to it in the atlantic in very rapidly and because it isa atlantic in very rapidly and because it is a south—westerly wind it stays mild. not particularly cold by day, 12 or13, mild. not particularly cold by day, 12 or 13, but tomorrow once again we are greeted by wet and windy weather first thing and it could be very windy. it could be windier than today, but the jury is out and we could be fine tuning the details but the south coast could see gusts of wind that about 70. scotland and northern ireland could see the strongest winds and they get the wettest weather, which gets blown at the way quicker than today, soap

writer through the afternoon. lots of showers around but still relatively mild. not too bad at all for this time of year when the average is about eight or nine. and then we lose this area of low pressure for many areas on friday but looking at the atlantic for the next the area of low pressure so at the moment friday as looking like a quieter end to the week, a quieter day for most of us, not totally dry with lots of showers around particularly across scotland and northern ireland, but not seeing that many showers around. it would be quite as mild on friday. the temperature back down to about nine or ten. this is the weekend, so you can see the temperature a little bit lower. the uncertainty over the weekend is the position of the low—pressure, at the moment looking as if it will come in on saturday morning getting an area of rain once again and then that clears away and

should be brighter, the afternoon, but almost a repeat performance in to sunday, so we keep the generally mild theme, no worries with night—time frost and fog but instead picking out the areas consistently getting rain over the next 45 days, for example parts of scotland topping 50 millimetres of rain, and more of the same quantity to come tomorrow, and with all that to come the river levels will be rising all the river levels will be rising all the time of the ground saturated, so the time of the ground saturated, so the concern is about those piling up over the next few days and isolating and highlighting the windiest weather as well. warnings on the website and we will keep you updated. this is bbc news — our latest headlines. leaving the eu could cost between £60 and 200 billion, according to the government's own forecasts for the next 15 years. theresa may insists that the economy would continue to grow and jobs would be protected a woman who was raped as a teenager claims that rotherham council has offered the man who attacked her the chance to play a role in her son's life. sydney has been deluged

by the heaviest november rain it has experienced in decades, causing flash—flooding, traffic chaos and power cuts. at least two deaths have been blamed on the storm. harry leslie smith, the activist and campaigner, who called himself ‘the world's oldest rebel‘ — has died at the age of 95. sport now on afternoon live withjohn watson. its a big night for spurs in the champions league tonight. tottenham and liverpool are both in action in the champions league tonight. for tottenham it's very simple. fail to beat inter milan and they're out of the competition, after failing to win any of their first three games. after that dismal start, it really would be the great escape for mauricio pochettino and his side. i feel it's important because it is going to give us hope it's going to

give us that game a different reality. you cannot fight to go to the next stage of the champions league. it is a decisive game but for me all the games are so important. liverpool still have a bit of work to do as well in a group where all four teams can still qualify. they've got to beat paris saint germain in paris — who have neymar and kylian mbappe back, and hope that red star don't beat napoli. and global tensions mean the arsenal game has been moved tonight? yes, arsenal — who've secured qualification to the last 32 — have seen their game with ukrainian side vorskla poltava tomorrow moved to the capital kiev amid security concerns. after ukraine's parliament backed a presidential plan to impose martial law in part of the country after russia captured three of its naval vessels and 23 crew members on sunday. u efa

uefa have opted to move the match and haven't ruled out plans for future games should they see fit. eden hazard will miss chelsea's match against paok salonika tomorrow with an ankle injury as the london side look to confirm top spot in their europa league group. it happened in last saturday's defeat to tottenham but should be fit to play against fulham on sunday. victor moses is also out with coach maurizio sarri likely to make changes head of the 10 matches his side have to play in december. robbie keane has announced his retirement from football. he said his career had exceeded all expectations. the 38—year—old played for the likes of tottenham, liverpool and celtic and spent the last year playing in india. here he is scoring for the republic or ireland at the world cup in 2002. he's their record goalscorer, and will become their new assistant manager working alongside mick

mccarthy. and there's a big fight for tyson fury this weekend. he challenges deontay wilder for the wbc heavyweight title in los angeles . ahead of the fight they both took time out of their training schedule to meet the la county fire teams who've been dealing with those horrendous wild fires. and fury took the opportunity to draw attention to another big problem in los angeles. there are a lot of homeless people on the streets here, more than i have ever seen in my life. i am staying in downtown la. if you go five minutes down the road, that thousands of homeless people. you think you might be in a third world country but it is a crisis situation and something needs to be done. i am just an outsider with an opinion but it is a situation happening all over the world especially in the uk as well. england cricket coach trevor bayliss hopes ben stoke's exemplary conduct since an altercation outside a nightclub last year will help him avoid a lengthy ban. stokes, who was cleared

in court of affray, faces a disciplinary hearing next month, alongside alex hames, for bringing he game into disrepute. bayliss could lose the player for their upcoming tour of the west indies depending on the punishment handed out by the ecb. that's all the sport for now. i'll have more for you in the next hour. just a reminder that we will be taking you over to the bank of england shortly because the bank of england shortly because the bank of england news conferences scheduled in the next few minutes, no wonder at the moment, but they will be publishing their assessment of the monetary and financial stability implications of the withdrawal agreement along with other possible brexit scenarios and they will take you to that when mark carne takes the chair. britain will lose access to eu databases used by police to track terrorists and criminals

in the event of a no—deal brexit, according to an official analysis. the assessment, published by the department for exiting the european union says any operational cooperation that relies on eu tools and instruments at the point of exit at the end of march next year would stop. this would risk increasing pressure on uk security, law enforcement and judicial authorities. let's discuss this further. i'm joined now by our security correspondent frank gardner. 0n the face of it this is the doomsday scenario? it is, it comes ahead ofan doomsday scenario? it is, it comes ahead of an important speech tomorrow morning by security minister ben wallace who will set out why he supports the deal, in terms of uk security. the first rule of any government, the first responsibility, is to protect its citizens. what this report is saying is that it is the tools and platforms and mechanisms, legal mechanisms, which we currently enjoy sharing with the european union would be at risk. we would be shut out of those if that is no deal.

this is not about migration or the economy, trade, finance, any of those things. purely about security. specifically it is things like dna shearling and passenger watch lists? that is hugely important? it is. it is hard to imagine, because it is not in europe's interests to shut us out. i was going to ask, pragmatism steps in at some point, doesn't it? you would think so, because britain is possibly the european leader are one of the leading countries in counterterrorism. it has got bilateral relationships with france and germany and spain but these are very important data platforms where millions of items of data have been sheared in real—time and if britain is shut out, ministers are worried that we will be disadvantaged. the second generation schengen information system. this is all

about alerts that should immediately and we would be cut off from that? in theory, if they didn't find a way around this. you remember the bata cla n around this. you remember the bataclan attack in paris, where they used high—power automatic weapons with masses of ammunition. those could possibly have been prevented, or could have ended differently, if alerts had been passed from one border to another, so opportunities we re border to another, so opportunities were missed, and other attacks were opportunities have been missed because alerts have not been flagged up because alerts have not been flagged up quickly enough. in the wake of the very bad summer that we had in this country last year and before that in europe, european governments have done their best to try to speed up have done their best to try to speed up the process of passage of information. they are not yet there and there are still inefficiencies in the system. going back to pragmatism argument, if it looks

like a no deal, is this a case of one agency ringing saying can be continuous things are at the moment? it will be but the legal framework will simply not be there and it will ta ke will simply not be there and it will take a lot longer, so one year ago i went over to brussels to seejulian king, the eu security commissioner. the european union security minister. he was fairly confident and said counterterrorism isjust minister. he was fairly confident and said counterterrorism is just so important in europe that we are going to ring fence it, it will not be an issue. whatever the shenanigans around the irish border or trade and migration, counterterrorism will remain untouched. i am counterterrorism will remain untouched. iam not counterterrorism will remain untouched. i am not sure that is necessarily the case, because while there is nothing to stop mi6 ringing up there is nothing to stop mi6 ringing up french counterparts are german cou nterpa rts up french counterparts are german counterparts on scene could you give us something on this, if they haven't got access to the bulk data that current european systems

provide, that is going to put britain at the major disadvantage. 0ne keeps hearing that gchq is crucially important to everybody. 0ne keeps hearing that gchq is crucially important to everybodym is and they do not want shut out either. we're going to hear probably a fairly robust speech by the security minister tomorrow when he lays out his thoughts on this and what he thinks of no deal. thank you for that. the world chess championship could be heading for armageddon. that's because, after nearly a month of fiercely contested play and 12 consecutive draws, the final is now being decided by a series of fast—paced tie—breakers. american fabiano caruana and norwiegan magnus carlsen are both grandmasters. and they're currently facing off in four shortened games... if no winner is crowned, the games are shortened still — until one final game of armageddon chess. the winner will take home nearly £900,000. earlier, i spoke to sarah hegarty — a chess player and former uk under 18 champion — about the anticipation for today's games.

the nerves are really there. magnus has been world champion for five yea rs has been world champion for five years and he has been on top of the game but fabiano is now competing with them and use on last match with the classical games, magnus was in a better position and was so nervous he offered a draw. he offered a draw? everyone was in shock because he was any better position and knew he was any better position and knew he was any better position and offered the draw and nobody could believe it. so what was that about? i think it was the nerves. because he played black in the last game he decided a draw would be great, because he is very good at the play—offs and is used to them from playing in new york two years ago. soi playing in new york two years ago. so i think he had it in his head before the game that a drop was all he wanted and that was the strategy and he didn't want to deviate. and asa and he didn't want to deviate. and as a player yourself, that pressure of time, presumably that is when the

sta kes get of time, presumably that is when the stakes get made? yes, that is the thing. in the classical games they can work things out when mistakes happen and that is why it has gone toa happen and that is why it has gone to a draw because they have been so careful, but now it is rapid play games and they do not have time. they have only got 20 minutes plus ten seconds for these games so it is very high stakes but magnus is number one in the world that rapidly and fabiano is number ten whereas in the classical games they are one and two. it is absolutely fascinating. the toughest question you will get today, who do you want to win?” the toughest question you will get today, who do you want to win? i am a massive magnus fan and i really wa nt a massive magnus fan and i really want him to win. they are both great people and i went to new york to watch magnus two years ago and he is very inspirational. they are both great players and they want the best player to win. interestingly yesterday garry kasparov, the former world champion, tweeted that magnus was not coping well with nerves and

his idea of who is going to win has changed. that was sarah hegarty talking to me earlier. we're going over to the business news and we are getting the bank of england report suggesting that a disorderly brexit would signal the worst financial crisis than ten yea rs worst financial crisis than ten years ago. the report suggests it could deliver a severe economic shock to the economy threatening a recession worse than the one we saw in the financial crisis of 2008. the economy shrinking according to the bank by 8%. it also said house prices would fall by 30%, commercial property prices by 48%. it is

predicting unemployment doubling and the value of the pound falling which means that goods we import into this country would become more expensive and that in turn would mean we see higher inflation of around 6.5% and that would be very difficult for consumers. i am just that would be very difficult for consumers. i amjust looking that would be very difficult for consumers. i am just looking at the press association. the bank of england has warned the pound could crash, inflation would sort and interest rates would have to rise in the event of a no deal disorderly brexit. they're just walking the event of a no deal disorderly brexit. they'rejust walking in. we should preface this, mark carne has sparked concerns before. let's hear from them. good afternoon and welcome to the bank's financial stability press conference. with me as the deputy governor of financial regulation, on my far right the deputy governor from monetary policy. next to them is the deputy governor for financial stability and on my immediate right

as the governor. thank you. the bank of england was myjob is to promote the good of the people of the united kingdom by attaining financial and monetary stability. that means low predictable inflation and resilient and reliable financial system there for uk households and businesses in good times as well as bad. the bank focuses on the necessities of the price of financial stability so people can focus best on what matters to them such as buying a house, saving their education and retirement than starting a business. the single most important determinant at present of the uk economic outlook is the nature and timing of brexit. since the referendum the bank has done everything we can to ensure we are ready for brexit whatever form it ta kes. ready for brexit whatever form it takes. as today's stress tests reveal, the core of our financial system is strong. major banks have capital ratios 3.5 times higher than before the financial crisis. we have

worked closely with the uk government and other uk authorities and european partners to manage possible risks of disruption to the financial system. most fundamentally institutional framework is a robust. they have all the necessary tools and the resolve to deliver financial stability the net. so, consistent with the guilmette, the bank is publishing two documents today. the first is latest financial stability report which details the current risk to uk financial stability and they run beyond brexit but it also includes a related stress tests of major uk banks, and secondly our response to the house of commons treasury committee's requests for analysis of how brexit will affect the bank's stability to deliver objectives. specifically they requested that the bank focus on the consequences of a potential economic partnership with the eu and eight no

deal, no transition brexit scenario. let me begin by saying what these a nalyses let me begin by saying what these analyses are and what they are not. they are scenarios and not forecasts. they illustrate what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen. building scenarios means making assumptions about the relationship between the uk and the eu, the degree of preparedness across firms and the infrastructure and the response of macroeconomic policies. the policies involve relevant timelines for the bank, up to five years, and as such they are not assessments for the relative long—term merits of different trading relationships. the scenarios are informative about the relative economic impacts of various economic relationships and the transitions to them. taken together, the scenarios highlight that the impact of brexit will depend on the

direction, magnitude and speed of the effect of reduced openness on the effect of reduced openness on the uk economy. the direction of the effects of the reduction in openness is clear. lower supply capacity, wea ker is clear. lower supply capacity, weaker demand, lower exchange rate and higher inflation. the magnitude of these economic impacts is modelled using established empirical relationships and its disciplined by the bank's suite of macroeconomic models to ensure their plausibility. but the speed of adjustment is less clear. given the lack of precedence of reduced openness, particularly amongst advanced economies. so the worst—case scenarios assume that adjustment happens more rapidly than it has over the last decades. this assumption is grounded by crosschecks including econometric models, case studies and intelligence by the bank's agencies across the united kingdom. the mpc and the ftc have reviewed the

releva nt and the ftc have reviewed the relevant scenarios and will use them as inputs and their policy deliberations. so we can to a few key observations starting with the economic partnerships. the scenarios reflect government policy and are most relevant for the npc. they shall sensitivities to key elements of being in partnership yet to be negotiated, such as the extent of customs and regulatory checks and agreeing on tariff barriers to services trade and the breadth of equivalence determinations for financial. in the five years under the partnership scenarios, gdp between 1.25% and 3.75% lower than it would have been if the economy had continued growing at its may 2016 trend rate. relative to the bank's most recent forecast in november, inflation is lower in the near term in both scenarios given the appreciation of sterling. it

rises as the transition period ends due to the fading effects of that appreciation and then the less close partnership scenario, as customs barriers take effect from 2021. the mechanical model of monetary policy generates a gently rising path over this scenario. this should not be taken as a prediction of the actual path for bank rates which will depend on practice on the balance of effects of demand, supply and the exchange rate. turning to know the law and no transition brexit, there are range of possible transition outcomes with that, consistent with the ftc‘s guilmette, a remit to protect and enhance the resilience of the uk financial system to shocks, they have focused on two variants labelled disruptive and disorderly underpinned by worst—case assumptions. in both scenarios,

ta riffs assumptions. in both scenarios, tariffs and other trade barriers and introduced suddenly next spring. the uk recognises eu product standards but the eu does not reciprocate. in the more severe but the eu does not reciprocate. in the more severe or but the eu does not reciprocate. in the more severe or disorderly scenario the uk border infrastructure does not cope smoothly with new customs requirements for some time. there is a pronounced increase in the return of investors demand for sterling assets. by the end of 2023 gdp is more than 10% lower than the disorderly scenario compared with may 2016 trend. despite the sharp contraction in gdp, bigger than having to do the night financial crisis, unemployment rises to 7.5%, less tha n crisis, unemployment rises to 7.5%, less than during the financial crisis, and that reflects the supply driven nature of the downturn. the sharp fall in sterling alongside the imposition of tariffs drives up the cost of imports and overall cpi

inflation peaks at 6.5%. in line with its re—met, they do what is in line with the inflation target with bank rates rising sharply to 3.5%. againi bank rates rising sharply to 3.5%. again i would remind you that as a mechanical calculation. the ftc has assessed the resilience of the financial systems to these worst—case outcomes and the key findings are, first, based on comparison with the 2018 stress test released today, the ftcjudges that the uk banking system is strong enough to continue to serve uk households and businesses even in the event of a disorderly brexit. so even after that unlikely event, we calculate the major uk banks will still have capital ratios around three times higher than they have before the financial crisis. i would ask you to recall that the bank stress test released today is 2.5 times more severe stress test released today is 2.5 times more severe than the brexit

scenario, worst—case brexit scenario ijust scenario, worst—case brexit scenario i just described. that scenario, worst—case brexit scenario ijust described. that is what being prepared for all eventualities requires. secondly, major uk banks have liquidity to withstand a major market disruption. they hold more than £1 trillion of high—quality liquid assets and can access an additional £300 billion of liquidity through the bank of england's facilities. major uk banks can now withstand many months without access to wholesale or foreign exchange markets. and thirdly, the ftc has worked with other authorities to insure most risks across cross—border financial services have been addressed, and in this regard, two main actions remain. further uk legislation currently in train will need to be passed for a fully functioning legal and great literary

framework for financial services to be in place ahead of brexit. and the european commission needs to provide greater clarity to reduce disruption in derivative markets following their recent and welcome statements. finally, the bank of england, with other authorities, has put extensive contingency plans in place to support institutional resilience and market functioning during any period of heightened uncertainty as we did around the 2016 referendum. we are closely monitoring market developments, we can lend in all major currencies and if required the ftc stands ready to cut the receptacle capital buffer if economic stresses worked to materialise. the bank's ability to achieve its monetary and financial stability objectives also depend on both the transition and the end—stage. the level of preparedness of business and infrastructure such as

ports, custom systems and transportation will be important determinants of how well the economy adjust to new trade barriers. evidence from surveys with other uk authorities suggests the country is not yet fully prepared for a cliff edge brexit. surveys suggest that less tha n edge brexit. surveys suggest that less than half of businesses have initiated contingency plans for no—deal. less than a fifth of small businesses have done so. after quarter of a million traders have never completed the customs