the bank of england warns that leaving the european union without a deal would hit the economy harder than the financial crisis of 2008. the governor has set out a grim forecast, predicting several parts of the economy will be badly hit. lower supply capacity, we could demand a lower exchange rate and higher inflation. the government's released its own figures, suggesting the uk will be poorer after brexit, compared to staying in the eu. also on the programme. the health watchdog says the uk's worst performing mental health trust repeatedly fails patients, some harming themselves, waiting for care. he wanted a professional to tell him that he was going to be ok, which that's all of our story, that's all he ever wanted and they couldn't do that. the inquest into the suicide of a prominent welsh politician, hears from the first minister of wales, that sexual misconduct claims against him, couldn't be ignored. a survivor of child exploitation

in rotherham claims the local council offered her rapist a role, in her son's life. and they've been slugging it out for a month with no knock out blow — but who will become world chess champion? and coming up on bbc news. to dare is to do. spurs boss mauricio pochettino rallies the troops ahead of their must—win champions league meeting with inter milan later. good evening, and welcome to the bbc news at six. the bank of england has given a stark warning of the effect on the economy, if the uk leaves the european union without a deal. the bank's forecast is of a shock to growth, harder than the financial crisis of 2008, with the economy shrinking by 8%.

the governor mark carney says interest rates would rise, and the pound would crash. the warning comes as the government publishes its own economic analysis, suggesting britain will be poorer under all brexit scenarios, than if it remained in the european union. well we'll have the latest from westminster in a moment, but first here's our economics correspondent andy verity. a resolute mood from the bank of england's top officials today, determined to issue a stark warning to the public and part. that a cliff edge no—deal brexit would mean an economy that would be much less open and much more vulnerable. the direction of the effects of a reduction in openness is clear. lower supply capacity we could demand a lower exchange rate, and higher inflation. here is the analysis of what could happen under different scenarios rather than what will happen. we would continue to

grow, if we take something like the deal on offerfrom the grow, if we take something like the deal on offer from the government we would grow but by less but if we crash out without a deal it says the economy could shrink by 8% in a year. in this worst case scenario house prices could fall by 30% with the pound dropping by 25% and commercial property nearly halving in value. if it did work out like that, it would be a worse recession than the financial crisis, the sharpest drop in the economy since the second world war. their analysis is pretty scary, and they are talking about a very substantial immediate hit to the economy, to unemployment, house prices, to incomes, because they fear that it would create a lot of economic dislocation. now there is a lot of uncertainty round what a no—deal brexit would look like. brexit supporters are sceptical of the warning, remembering a time before the 2016 referendum when it warned of the risk of a recession after a

vote to leave. instead the economy kept growing. these are mickey mouse figures they throw out there and it isjust, i figures they throw out there and it is just, i am figures they throw out there and it isjust, i am afraid, it is the figures they throw out there and it is just, i am afraid, it is the old project fear back again, to try to scare us project fear back again, to try to scare us witless and i am afraid we are not going to get scared into giving up this country's democracy, by this type of disgraceful behaviour. the bank of england stresses its is not saying this will happen but it might. but if it was doing project fear it didn't work on the currency markets, there the pound was up a few minutes ago against the dollar and the euro. a stark warning from the bank of england? that action before the referendum is pa rt that action before the referendum is part of the reason the currency markets aren't taking them that seriously, there they said there was a risk we might end terse a recession and of course the economy kept growing, and these warnings are stronger in a way, the warnings of a no deal no transition clef edge brexit than the government's were

this morning, they were saying 15 yea rs this morning, they were saying 15 years from now, each person would be about £1100 each worse off, that is not half as bad as saying sterling will fall by 25%, unemployment rises to 7.5%, inflation is.5 percent. 0utflows of people. all those things are what the bank of england is saying could happen, if we get a cliff edge no—deal brexit. but of course, as i mentioned brexiteers will be sceptical given the bank of england's patchy record in predicting these things in the government has also released its own economic analysis, which shows the uk will be poorer economically under any form of brexit, compared with staying in the eu. the review suggests a deal similar to the agreement negotiated by theresa may with brussels would leave the economy in the next 15 years, 3.9% smaller than if the uk stayed in the eu. but if there was no brexit deal the analysis shows the economy, while still growing, would take a 9.3% hit, over the same period. 0ur political editor laura kuenssberg has more. percent. 0utflows of people.

this isn't a general election, even though it looks a bit like it. the prime minister's brexit deal is the candidate, mps are the voters, she's hopeful the government's numbers today show her compromise is better than nothing. it shows that the deal we have negotiated with the european union, is the best deal available forjobs and the economy, that also delivers honours the referendum. there are lots of possibilities that today's statistics just don't and cannot include. but the brexit campaign certainly didn't say the economy would slow down on the side ofa economy would slow down on the side of a bus. the chancellor this morning was remarkably clear. of a bus. the chancellor this morning was remarkably cleanm of a bus. the chancellor this morning was remarkably clear. if we are only looking at the economic benefits, remain manager the eu, is a better economic outcome than the prime minister's deal but the prime minister's deal gives an outcome remarkably close to the benefits of

staying in. it might seem bizarre to hear a chancellor admit the government's own policy would see the country poorer but what number 11 is saying is what most calculations have always said, the economy will still grow but more slowly tha n economy will still grow but more slowly than if we stay in the eu, what number ten is arguing is under the deal they have brokered, the economy would see much less turmoil and disturbance than if we walked away with no deal and no agreement but brexit itself has always been about much more than the cash. there we re about much more than the cash. there were clear warnings during the referendum about potential costs to the economy, and for brexiteers today ease numbers needed a giant bucket of salt in a desperate attempt to reverse the result of the referendum, we are going to hear the most hair—raising stories and

improbably forecast, let us remind them we have heard this before. along with the brexiteers labour is committed to trying to top the deal. not stopping brexit, at least not yet. are they tiptoeing to another referendum? the numbersjust aren't there, and it is causing insecurity and division unnecessarily. do you accept though, that by voting down the deal, that you will be creating more turmoil, even if only in the short—term? more turmoil, even if only in the short-term? i don't accept that, we wa nt short-term? i don't accept that, we want a deal that would protectjobs and the economy. if we can't achieve that, the government can't achieve that, the government can't achieve that, we think we can, if the government can't achieve that we should have a general election, if thatis should have a general election, if that is not possible we will call on the government tojoin that is not possible we will call on the government to join us in a public vote. that is the sequence i think that will go through over this period. now within that. in a vote of no confidence didn't bring down the government and general election it is inevitable that would be another... that is right. we have said our policy is if we can't get a

general election the other option we have kept on the table is a people's vote, a public vote. nothing seems inevitable round here right now. more than two years since the referendum, getting parliament and the public on side for any one plan is far from easy. we'll talk to our political editor, laura kuenssberg, who's in westminster in a moment, but first to our scotland editor sarah smith, who's at holyrood. sarah, what's been the reaction there to today's economic forecasts? theresa may, she was in glasgow today, selling her brexit plans, given the economy forecast released, how well did she go down? well, the scottish first minister has told me she thinks the prime minister is trying to deny reality, if she thinks she can sell this brexit deal after her own government's figures show that it would leave the country worse off. the prime minister was hearin worse off. the prime minister was hear in scotland of course to deliver a positive economic message, she said her deal will protect scottish jobs and businesses, she said her deal will protect scottishjobs and businesses, but she said her deal will protect scottish jobs and businesses, but it is clear that the snp will seize on this economic analysis and similar one done by the scottish government

as well, to try and persuade other opposition parties to join them, in wanting to keep the uk inside the eu single market and customs union which they think would mitigate the economic damage. laura is in westminster. how do you think the analysis from the bank of england is going to be receive issed? the prime minister is desperate to get her deal through parliament but now there will be dozens parliament but now there will be d oze ns of parliament but now there will be dozens of tory mps and the opposition parties saying they are not going to let that happen. so i think without question those people on theresa may's side are going to say look, if you risk no deal by voting down her plan, just look at what might happen, there could be enormous economic turmoil. the political reality though is many people on the side who hate the deal, who don't want this to happen, will stick theirfingers in deal, who don't want this to happen, will stick their fingers in their ears and say we've heard this all before. you may find where people are wavering it could put a few

people back into the prime minister's column but this to many ears will seem like another episode of the screaming match that has been the brexit debate for the uk's worst performing mental health trust has been told it has only weeks to improve safety, after inspectors rated it inadequate for a third time. the care quality commission, says managers at the norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust, had repeatedly failed to protect patients, who were harming themselves due to a lack of care. the regulator says the trust has failed to address problems going back years. 0ur health correspondent sophie hutchinson reports... sophie hutchinson reports. the suffolk coast. across this county, and in neighbouring norfolk, mental health care is in deep crisis. i know people that have literally lost their lives, because the services are not good enough. there are still people out there who are in the same circumstances as what i was.

how richard was. and they are still taking their own lives. the health regulator has said the risks to patients are unacceptable and has given the trust weeks to improve, but questions are being asked about why a more radical action isn't being taken. i thought now was the best time to tell you because, you know... 20—year—old alana regularly self harms and overdoses, but she and her partner andrew have stopped calling the crisis line run by the trust because they say no one answers. in the absence of help, alana says that andrew is her lifeline. he's saved my life a few times now. i just feel so bad for those who don't have anyone. and who still can't get the help they need. alana didn't even have a care coordinator. the health regulator, the cqc, has said more than 2500 patients here are without this basic support. 0therfailings included emergency referrals being downgraded to routine, and a dangerous lack of staff. it said...

after the trust faced budget cuts in 2012, it lost more than a quarter of its permanent doctors and a quarter of its nursing posts are vacant. there are now 50% more mental health patients dying unexpectedly. he could not wait five weeks. karen was devastated when her husband richard took his own life. he had severe anxiety and depression. one day, she called the crisis team over 30 times. the day before his death he was told the only available appointment was five weeks away. how badly let down was he by the mental health services? totally let down, totally let down. you don't look at a desperate man who's telling you he is going to commit suicide, who is crying all the time, who is anxious, who was on a high

dosage of anxiety tablets, of antidepressants, to turn around and say to him, no, you can wait five weeks. and you feel they could have saved his life? definitely. today the health secretary responded to calls from charities, local council leaders and mps who say he must consider the possible closure of the trust. there are very significant issues that need to be sorted out. i think we need to look across the board that what the solutions might be. there is already work under way. shortly after we met alana, she was told she is no longer eligible for mental health support. days later, she self harmed again. for her, and those like her, improvement cannot come quickly enough. the first minister of wales, carwynjones, has been giving evidence at the inquest, into the death of the former welsh government minister carl sargeant. mrjones was heavily criticised for his handling of the sacking of mr sargeant, after the latter was accused of inappropriate

behaviour towards women, allegations he denied. sian lloyd's report contains some flashing images. arriving to give what he has described as his side of the story, the first minister carwynjones came to the inquest into the death of his colleague carl sargeant to face questioning about the circumstances around his decision to sack him. the former welsh government minister and father of two was dismissed during a cabinet reshuffle, four days before his body was found. the allegations that had been made against the 49—year—old left him no choice but to sack him, mrjones said. he told the inquest, it was awful. i remember the feeling of dread. i had lost sleep over it, but it had to be done. during the course of the inquest, the coroner, john gittins, has made several enquiries about what support or pastoral care was offered to carl sargea nt, who had suffered from depression. he has indicated that it's part of his role to investigate whether lessons can

be learned to prevent further deaths. carl sargeant‘s family have been critical of the way the first minister handled his sacking. they heard carwyn jones tell the court that he wasn't aware of mr sargeant‘s mental health issues at the time. the coroner asked him if anything has changed in relation to the support offered to departing ministers, to which he responded no. any regrets, first minister? carwyn jones has finished giving evidence. he stands down as wales' first minister in less than two weeks' time, after nine years in the job. he has described what happened as the darkest of times, but as he left the inquest, he was remaining tight—lipped. an independent enquiry into how he handled carl sargeant‘s sacking has yet to begin. sian lloyd, bbc news. our top story this evening. the bank of england warns that

leaving the european union without a deal would hit the economy harder than the 2008 financial crash. it's the most anticipated chess match in years. after a record breaking streak of 12 draws, will tonight finally see a new world chess champion? coming up on sportsday on bbc news: liverpool take on the stars of paris st—germain knowing a win would take them into the last 16 of the champions league. it's described as a devastating crime that shatters the lives of survivors and their families. 1.3 million women in england and wales last year were affected by domestic violence. ? and recent figures reveal that disabled women are nearly three times more likely to be affected, enduring physical, sexual and emotional abuse. well now the bbc has found that only 11% of refuge spaces in the uk,

are accessible to disabled people. the government says it's invested more than 55 million pounds in domestic abuse services since 2014. 0ur disability news correspondent nikki fox has the story. i realise that i was raped that night. i was just used and abused thereon after. sarah was repeatedly sexually abused by someone she thought was a friend. to protect her identity, we have changed her name, and her words are spoken for her. when he was around me, everyone thought he was really nice. but they didn't know what was going on in the background. her physical disability added to her feelings of helplessness. if i hadn't had a disability, the situation would probably never have occurred. because that first night, i would have just jumped out of bed and gone, "on your bike." did you feel you were in a position

to say, "just, enough"? i said "enough" a number of times. but then he would still come round. perpetrators of domestic violence have more opportunity to control their disabled victims. it can be as simple as withholding medication or not taking someone to the bathroom. they're often not believed. their dependency they have on people to provide support and care, and it could be anyone from a family member to a partner, to actually, you know, somebody they are paying for support. one way out is finding safety at a refuge, but only 11% of all spaces are accessible for people with physical disabilities. that's according to a freedom of information request for bbc 100 women, where out of 210 united kingdom councils contacted, 131 replied. this place is purpose—built and can accommodate disabled women, their children and carers. women with additional needs and disabilities,

when they first come in, they see that it hasn't been a secondary thought. when we have been involved in the developing and planning of refuges it has been integral to the thinking of how this place was built. now if we can't do something to try and create a space that welcomes those women, and keeps those women as equally safe as women without a disability, it was going to be a hugely missed opportunity. council funding for women's refuges has seen a 6% reduction in the last five years according to an foi request of which 144 replied. the local government association says councils take domestic violence very seriously and continue to work with other partners to support victims. sue works finding accessible spaces for disabled women. she knows how tough it is. hello, nwta, sue speaking. sometimes if you've worked with somebody for three, four weeks and you still haven't found anything, and you're phoning up and saying, "ever so sorry, but there's no space again now,

i'll check again later." domestic violence is a traumatic experience for all victims. for disabled women the journey to safety can be even more of a struggle, from being taken seriously in the first place, to simply getting the right support. those who work with disabled victims say unless there's more money, they can't see the situation improving, any time soon. nikki fox, bbc news. and if you've been affected by any of the issues in that report, there is help and advice on the bbc action line. is help and advice on the bbc action line. a victim of child exploitation has called for a change in the law amid claims a man who raped her was contacted about the chance to play a role in her son's life. sammy woodhouse who's waived her right to annonymity says rotherham council approached arshid hussain even though he's in prison for raping her as child. fiona trott reports.

a survivor of child sex abuse who says she's still fighting for her rights. i think it's disgusting, and i always find that the rapists always get, you know, are protected and have more rights than what we do. sammy woodhouse gave evidence in care proceedings connected with her son which ended last year. she says that she was told his father could ask to be involved. i have to wake up every morning and have to fight for something, and what it all boils down to is just to be treated like a human being. you know, i keep hearing about his rights — well, what about my rights? what about our rights? what about the right for my son to be safe, to be protected and not have to deal with this on a daily basis? on these streets, sammy and hundreds more like her were groomed and abused for years. arshid hussain targeted her when she was just 14. he is serving a 35 year sentence, but sammy woodhouse says she was shocked when rotherham social services told her he could still be involved in their child's life. in a statement, rotherham

council says: the law is a very blunt instrument. people should just use their common sense. if they used their common sense in this situation and the others around the country, then they would not have written what they think they have to do. doing something by tick box is what's happened here. but if we need clarity, then the law needs to change. sammy woodhouse is campaigning for a change in the law so that she and others like her can move on with their lives. i feel like i'm constantly being controlled by him. i want a full investigation into the family courts across the country. i want to know how many councils have actually been doing this. and i want a way for people to come forward and express what they've been going through, a way to access their legal rights, and a support centre as well to be able to deal with all this.

fiona trott, bbc news, rotherham. a look at some of the day's other stories now. a couple have been found guilty of causing the death of a young boy. he died of a broken skull and had 41 other injuries. the couple, from gosport in hampshire, will be sentenced next week. the duke and duchess of cambridge have paid tribute to the five people killed in a helicopter crash in leicester last month. the couple we re leicester last month. the couple were met by the family of the club's owner, who died in the accident along with four others. fast, sudden death and armageddon aren't necessarily words you'd expect to associate with chess. but they're all being used in relation to the final of the world chess championship in london. the defending champion,

magnus carlsen, who's norwegian, and his american challenger, fabiano caruana, remained level after 12 games. so they're now playing a series of increasingly quick matches to decide who will be crowned king. richard conway reports. it has been three long weeks, and not a checkmate in sight. but after 12 drawn games and over 48 hours of playing time, the chess equivalent of a penalty shoot—out is under way to decide who will be crowned world champion. it is inside that soundproof glass box that this title will be decided. the two men must play fast, they must hold their nerve. the deadlock must be broken today. magnus carlsen has been at the top of his game for over five years. he is very much the poster boy of his sport. homer has the winning hand. he merely needs to take grandpa's knight.

he has been a guest star on the simpsons, a fashion model, and is the marketable young face behind a chess empire. his opponent, meanwhile, is bidding to become the first american to win the title since 1972. this series has also caught the public‘s imagination. streamed internationally on a pay—per—view basis, the games are also being closely followed online. all part of an ambition to remain the world's number one mind sport. now chess is almost as big as facebook. it's a bigger than kim kardashian's twitter. and it is already on, let's say, a billion—dollar market. a billion people market share. the slowest of games has produced the fastest of finishes. in the end, magnus calrsen defended his queen and was crowned as king. richard conway, bbc news, london. time for a look at the weather.

here's helen willets. this is how the rain looks at the moment. absolutely teeming down across scotland at the moment, miserable conditions, gale force winds and gusts. that is courtesy of storm diana. there could be more stormy weather tomorrow. the windiest weather will be across england and wales. it is going to be quite nasty if you are on the roads this evening and overnight. again through tomorrow morning's rush because of surface water and winds. we have a window of dry weather briefly overnight, but very brief, because the next lot is moving in. the positive? it is mild. no frost overnight. a soggy start to the day tomorrow across england and wales, parts of northern ireland and

scotland. the winds could gust up to 60 mph. it could be even windier. hence, there are warnings on the website at the moment. stay tuned if you have travel plans tomorrow morning. scotland and northern ireland will probably escape the windiest weather tomorrow but it will be really wet. unlike today, it looks as if the rain will clear more quickly. brighter skies follow for many in the afternoon, with a scattering of hefty showers, maybe some hail and thunder. temperatures should be around eight or nine celsius at this time of year. showers in southern areas on friday. behind there is another area of rain lurking, which will come in at the weekend. low pressure at the weekend will keep our sweat and at times rather windy. clive. that's it, so goodbye from me. hello, this is bbc news.

the headlines: the bank of england warns a disorderly brexit — with no deal and no transition period — would deliver an economic shock so severe, that it would trigger a recession worse than after the financial crisis. norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust — the uk's worst performing mental health trust — has been told it has only weeks to improve safety, after inspectors rated it inadequate for a third time. wales' first minister tells an inquest into the death of the former welsh minister, carl sargeant, that sexual