this is bbc news. the headlines at 11: the bank of england warns of a major recession worse than the crash of 2008, if the uk leaves the european union without a deal. for a period of time, if we reduce the degree to which we can trade with our largest trading partner, the economy has to undergo an adjustment. a teenager is to be charged with assault, after footage showing a 15 year old syrian refugee being attacked goes viral. coming up — the health watchdog issues a warning to the uk's worst performing mental health trust. norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust has been told it has only weeks to improve safety, after inspectors rated it inadequate for a third time. and could the island of sark about to be plunged into the dark? sark electricity has threatened to pull the plug, after being ordered to lower its prices on the small channel island. and at half past eleven we'll be taking an in—depth look

at the papers with our reviewers jess brammar from the huffington post uk, and the broadcaster aasmah mir. stay with us for that. good evening. the bank of england is warning of an immediate economic crash, if the uk leaves the european union without a deal and without a transition period. the bank's analysis is of a shock to growth more damaging than the financial crisis of 2008, with interest rates and unemployment rising while house prices fall. the government's own forecasts were also published today, and they suggest britain will be poorer under all brexit scenarios. here's our business editor, simonjack. enter brexit centrestage.

a man with a warning. leaving the eu without a deal could trigger an economic crash worse than the one that followed the financial crisis. we have constructed a worst case no deal, no transition brexit scenario, where you have a series of events including friction at the border, difficulties at ports, sharp falls in financial markets would costs more for people and businesses to borrow, a series of events happening at the same time. this is not a prediction orforecast, merely a possibility in the bank's worst—case scenario. gdp is down 8% in one year, house prices down 30%, unemployment almost doubles to 7.5% and prices are up by 6.5%. it's in these marble halls that

economists look into their crystal balls to see what might happen in the future and some scenarios are pretty grim, but the bank says it is not here to scare us, in fact it's there to reassure us that if we get a no deal, no transition brexit creating a financial emergency, the bank will be ready. but is the real economy ready? the bank says 80% of small businesses have done no planning for a no deal scenario, an outcome this furniture maker from high wycombe would like to avoid. for us, we would like to get on with it, so no deal would be difficult because i think it would increase the damage to consumer confidence, presumably damage the strength of the pound, which makes our life more expensive. and i think itjust... simplicity would be good for us. the worst case is only one scenario, others analysed include staying

in the eu, the orange line at the top, staying in the eu, a trade deal similar to the one proposed by the prime minister is underneath and the no deal disorderly brexit at the bottom. remember, this report was requested by mps who asked a simple question, does the bank of england think the uk will be better or worse off than it predicted before the referendum? in some respects it is very simple, for a period of time, if we reduce the degree to which we can trade with our largest trading partner, the economy has to undergo an adjustment. during that period of time, it is likely, all things being equal, it is likely the economy will grow less rapidly. the government's own analysis reached a similar conclusion that says that delivering brexit requires and is worth the economic compromise. let's take a look at the government's own analysis now. it claims the uk will be do worse under any form of brexit, compared with staying in the eu. the review suggests a deal similar

to the agreement negotiated by theresa may with brussels would leave the economy over the next 15 years, 3.9% smaller, than if the uk stayed in the eu. but the analysis shows a no deal brexit would see growth hit by 9.3% over the same period. here's our political editor, laura kuenssberg. this isn't a general election, even though it looks a bit like it. the prime minister's brexit deal is the candidate, mps are the voters. she's hopeful the government's numbers today show her compromise is better than nothing. it shows that the deal we have negotiated with the european union is the best deal available forjobs and the economy, that also delivers and honours the referendum. there are lots of possibilities that today's statistics just don't and cannot include. but the brexit campaign certainly didn't say the economy would slow down on the side of a bus. the chancellor this morning

was remarkably clear. if we are only looking at the economic benefits, remaining in the eu is a slightly better economic outcome than the prime minister's deal. but the prime minister's deal gives an outcome remarkably close to the benefits of staying in. it might seem bizarre to hear a chancellor admit the government's own policy would see the country poorer, but what number 11 is saying today is what most calculations have always said — that the economy will still grow after brexit, but a bit more slowly than if we stay in the eu. what number ten is arguing is that under the deal they have brokered, the economy would see much less turmoil and disturbance than if we walked away with no deal and no agreement. but brexit itself has always been about much more than the cash. there were clear warnings during the referendum about potential costs to the economy, and for brexiteers today's numbers needed a giant bucket of salt. in a desperate attempt to reverse

the result of the 2016 referendum, we are undoubtedly going to hear the most hair—raising stories and improbable forecasts. let's remind those that might waver that we have heard this before. along with those brexiteers, labour right now is committed to trying to stop the prime minister's deal. not stopping brexit — at least not yet. are they tiptoeing to another referendum 7 the numbers just aren't there, and it is causing insecurity and division unnecessarily. do you accept, though, that by voting down the deal, that you will be creating more turmoil, even if only in the short—term? i don't accept that. we want a deal that will protect jobs and the economy. if we can't achieve that, the government can't achieve that, we think we can. if the government can't achieve that, we should have a general election. if that is not possible, we will be calling on the government

tojoin us in a public vote. that is the sequence i think that we will inevitably go through over this period. now, within that... if a vote of no confidence didn't bring down the government and general election, it is inevitable, to use that word you have just used, that would be another vote? that is right. we've said, our policy is if we can't get a general election the other option we have kept on the table is a people's vote, a public vote. nothing seems inevitable round here right now. more than two years since the referendum, getting parliament and the public on side for any one plan is far from easy. laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. while theresa may was in scotland, the first minister nicola sturgeon was criticising her brexit deal, saying the prime minister can't promote opportunity, when economic analyses suggest her proposals will make everyone poorer. the scottish government has also published doom—laden brexit forecasts today. here's our scotland editor, sarah smith. the edinburgh beer factory is a small, young company with big ambitions to rapidly expand their exports.

at the moment, they don't yet know if brexit is a problem, or if it could provide new opportunities. actually, some of our early sales have been to japan, hong kong and canada, so we're not entirely tied to the eu. that said, the eu is the single biggest exporting bloc. if theresa may is to convince scottish business her deal will work for them, she needs to persuade people like these brewers. new opportunities to sell beer or anything else to the rest of the world beyond the eu is what the prime minister wants to sell to scottish businesses. but if the economy here slows down, then that will really affect companies like this one, which sell most of their product in the uk. visiting a leather factory outside glasgow, theresa may insisted her deal does take scotland's interests into account. and she tried to reassure some of the factory‘s employees she met that it will protect scottish jobs and business. but scotland's first minister says that is simply denying reality. i'm struggling to believe that the prime minister

is in scotland or anywhere else in the uk today talking about economic opportunities, when her own government has published modelling showing that every outcome of brexit will make the whole country poorer. i mean, itjust beggars belief. it is hard to convince businesses like the beer factory that they will benefit from brexit, when the treasury's own analysis forecasts a slowing economy. and the scottish government predicts leaving the eu could hit scotland harder than the rest of the uk. sarah smith, bbc news, edinburgh. a teenager is to be charged with assault, after footage showing a 15—year—old syrian refugee being attacked was shared on social media. the father of the refugee has told us his daughter has also been assaulted at her school. tonight, a fundraising website set up for the family has raised nearly £100,000. judith moritz reports. this video was filmed on school playing fields last month.

0ne pupil approaches another student. he appears to head—butt him, grab him by the neck and wrestle him to the ground. then he pours water over the pupil's face while other students look on. after pulling himself up, the boy walks away. the video has now been shared and viewed online millions of times. the teenager who was assaulted is a syrian refugee. today, his father told me that his other child had also been targeted by different pupils. translation: i have my daughter in school. we are muslims. after one yearfrom being in the uk, she grown up and decided to put hijab like her mother. we are surprised that in school her friends beat her up and take hijab. this new footage is said to show that attack. the family have told us that the girl in the pink hijab is the sister of the boy in the first video. you came to the uk for sanctuary, do you feel safe here? translation: in the beginning i thought that we are coming

to sanctuary and safety, but when i saw what happened to my children, i don't know what to say. the footage was filmed at almondbury community school in huddersfield. relating to the first video, the police say a 16—year—old boy will appear before a youth court for an offence of assault. the head teacher has written to parents to tell them that the school is working with the police and taking the situation extremely seriously, that they don't tolerate any sort of unacceptable behaviour here and that it's business as usual so that there is no disruption to pupils' education. all day, donations have been pouring into a fundraising account for the family of the boy who was assaulted. the videos continue to be shared online. the family of the boy say that, despite their situation, they respect britain as the country which has given them refuge. judith moritz, bbc news, huddersfield. the uk's worst performing mental health trust has been told it has only weeks to improve safety. inspectors have rated the norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust

as inadequate, keeping it in special measures for an unprecedented third time. the care quality commission, says managers have repeatedly failed to protect patients, who were harming themselves due to a lack of care, and the problems date back years. here's our health correspondent sophie hutchinson. this report contains flashing images. the suffolk coast. across this county and in neighbouring norfolk, mental health care is in deep crisis. i know people that have literally lost their lives because the services aren't good enough. there's still people out there who're in the same circumstances as what i was, how richard was, and they're still taking their own lives. the health regulator has said the risks to patients are unacceptable and given the trust weeks to improve, but questions are being asked about why more radical action isn't taken. i thought now was the best time

to tell you because, you know... 20—year—old alana regularly self harms and overdoses, but she and her partner andrew have stopped calling the crisis line run by the trust because they say no—one answers. in the absence of help, alana says drew is her lifeline. drew's saved my life a few times now. i just feel so bad for those that don't have anyone and still can't get the help they need. alana didn't even have a care co—ordinator. the health regulator the cqc has said more than 2500 patients here are without this basic support. otherfailings included emergency referrals being downgraded to routine and a dangerous lack of staff. it said... after the trust faced budget cuts in 2012, it lost more than a quarter of its permanent doctors

and a quarter of its nursing posts are vacant. there are now 50% more mental health patients dying unexpectedly. he could not wait five weeks... karen was devastated when her husband richard took his own life. he had severe anxiety and depression. one day she called the crisis team over 30 times. the day before his death, he was told the only available appointment was five weeks away. how badly let down was he by the mental health services? totally let down. you don't look at a desperate man who is telling you he is going to commit suicide, who is crying all the time, who is anxious, who is on high dosage of anxiety tablets, of antidepressants, to turn round and say to him, "no, you can wait five weeks." and you feel they could have saved his life? oh, totally. today the health secretary responded to calls from charities, local council leaders and mps, who say he must consider the possible closure of the trust. there are very significant issues

that need to be sorted out. i think we need to look across the board at what the solutions might be. there's already work under way. the trust says already taking action. shortly after we met alana, she was told she was no longer eligible for mental health support. days later she self harmed again. for her and those like her, improvements cannot come quickly enough. sophie hutchinson, bbc news. the headlines on bbc news: the bank of england warns that leaving the european union without a deal would hit the economy harder than the 2008 financial crash, with several parts of the economy badly hit. a teenager is to be charged with assault after footage showing a 15—year—old syrian refugee being attacked goes viral. norfolk and suffolk nhs foundation trust has been told it has only weeks to improve safety, after inspectors rated it inadequate for a third time.

one of the channel islands, sark, could be plunged into darkness by the weekend, without any electricity at all. the island, which is home to a few hundred people, has one of the highest electricity tariffs in the western world, and an independent commissioner has stepped in and ordered the provider to drop its prices. as a result the utility company, sark electricity, is threatening to pull the plug this friday. our reporterjohn fernandez is on ,sark where local residents and the sark government have tonight been holding a meeting. where are we now, john? tell us how worried people are about what might happen in the coming days. well, people are worried. there was a kind of sense of confidence earlier today that the lights may not be turned off, but

people are preparing. i spoke to an 82—year—old man who is feeling the bath tub up to make sure he has got enough water to flush the toilet. i spoke to somebody at the local shop who was buying firelighters to make sure that they can keep their fire going. but there is also a bit of a blitz spirit at the moment. people are trying to come together. people are trying to come together. people are buying generators, people who may be old and sick are going to hotels where they are generators, and the island hall, where they will also be a generator. so people are grouping together, but there is a real sense of worry that on friday at midnight the power could be shut off. i mentioned there was this meeting this evening, what happened at? yes, so the island's government decided that they would look at valuing and possibly purchasing sark electricity. now, the timescale they gave was the possibly come back with a report to do so by easter next year at the earliest, maybe february. so there were a few people

who said they were disappointed with that, one politicians stood up and saidi that, one politicians stood up and said i was really hoping that we would come here and actually be able to say the lights were staying on, but patently wasn't the case. i spoke to the owner of sark electricity after the meeting, david gordon brown, the man at the centre of this, and he says the fact is that power is you'll going off on friday. he doesn't believe he will be given a fair price to sell his company out. but there are two days of negotiation, tomorrow and friday, where the chief and david gordon brown meeting, but there still every chance that the island could lose all of its electricity on friday. and a final word about the context of this, because i mentioned how high the prices are, and presumably they have been high for quite a long time, soi they have been high for quite a long time, so i suppose people might be wondering why it has come to this 110w. wondering why it has come to this now. well, it has kind of hit a bit ofa now. well, it has kind of hit a bit of a breaking point. 66p per kilowatt hour, i mean, there are some places in the uk you can pay 14p per kilowatt hour, so it is

extremely high. obviously the infrastructure costs and the economies of scale in an island like sark, with between 300 and 400 people, are just not there. it kind of hit rating point. the government said we need to get a handle on this, it is affecting business, it is affecting people's lives, and they said we will get on a regulator. the regulator said let's provide electricity for 52p, 14p lower than the 66p already provided, and the government said simply that thatis and the government said simply that that is too low, we cannot meet our cost, we a re that is too low, we cannot meet our cost, we are going to have to shut off. so it has been building for some time, it is a story i have been looking out for some time. a lot of people have been saying the cost of electricity is a huge issue in sark, and now it has become an even bigger issue, because they may not have any. thank you very much, john. harry leslie smith, the veteran campaigner for the poor and for refugees, has died. he was 95. he grew up in poverty in yorkshire, living through the great depression and serving as a pilot in the second world war.

but it is his work championing human rights and the welfare state for which he will be best remembered. let's take a look back at his life. harry leslie smith. i am the world's old est harry leslie smith. i am the world's oldest rebel. tuberculosis tortured my sister and left her an invalid that had to be restrained with ropes tied around her bed. my parents did everything in their power to keep marion alive and comfortable, but theyjust didn't have the money to get the best clinics, find her the best doctors, or the right medicines. there was a stream of hundreds of

thousands of refugees coming south. ican thousands of refugees coming south. i can still... see them. absolutely pitiful. hungry, starving. we shouldn't be leaving anyone out, no matter what their nationality, colour, or traits are. a woman who was sexually exploited as a child has called for a change

in the law, amid claims a man who raped her was contacted about the chance to play a role in her son's life. sammy woodhouse, who has waived her right to annonymity, says rotherham council approached arshid hussain even though he is in prison for raping her as a child. fiona trott reports. a survivor of child sex abuse, who says she is still fighting for her rights. i think it's disgusting, and i always find that the rapists always get, you know, more protected and have more rights than we do. sammy woodhouse gave evidence in care proceedings connected with her son, which ended last year. she says that she was told his father could ask to be involved. i have to wake up every morning and have to fight for something, and what it all boils down to is just to be treated like a human being. and you know, i keep hearing about his rights. but what about my rights? what about our rights? what about the right for my son to be safe, to be protected, and not have

to deal with this on a daily basis? on these streets, sammy and hundreds more like her were groomed and abused for years. arshid hussain targeted her when she was just 14. he is serving a 35—year sentence. that is why mps are also calling for a change in the law. how can a dangerous man, whose child was conceived through rape, still have a right to be involved in that child's life? rotherham council says it was just following national guidelines, but has apologised for what happened. clearly we have caused some difficulty, some heartache here, that perhaps we should not have done. so i'm sorry about that. but all i can do is say that we're going to go back, we'll want to learn our lessons, were going to get it right and were trying to prevent the people from enduring the same kind of things that you could. people should just use their common sense.

if they used their common sense in this situation, and others around the country, they would not have written what they think they have to do. doing something by tick—boxes is what happened here, but if we need clarity, then the law needs to change. sammy woodhouse not only wants the children's act to be changed, but she also wants investigation into how councils have been interpreting it. in australia, thousands of people have been told to leave their homes as bushfires devastate parts of queensland. a catastrophic fire warning has been issued for the first time in the state's history. extreme weather conditions have also hit new south wales, with torrential rain and flooding in sydney, from where hywel griffith reports. fleeing the fires while they still can. for 8,000 queenslanders, there has been no choice but to leave their homes behind. bushfires are a familiar threat in australia, but not here, and not at this time of year. a heatwave, combined with fierce winds, created what the emergency services called a firestorm.

it's not normal for queensland. people will burn to death. their normal approaches most probably won't work, if this situation develops the way it's predicted to develop. it's no different to a category 5 cyclone coming straight through your door. as the day ended, more than 130 fires continue to burn. some homes have been destroyed, but rescue teams have stopped lives from being lost. 800 miles down the coast, it was a very different storm testing the authorities, as sydney was battered by a month's worth of rain in a day. the worst downpour in over 30 years brought four inches of water. as the storm swirled, flash—flooding began. paramedics were left dealing with four times the usual number of car crashes. two people were killed during the storm. summer may only be a few days away in australia. but wild, unpredictable weather is testing many people's resolve. the duke and duchess of cambridge

have paid tribute to the five people killed in a helicopter crash at leicester city football club last month. they laid flowers and met the family of vichai srivaddhanaprabha, the club owner, who died in the accident, along with four others. and we will be taking an in—depth look at the papers with our reviewers, the broadcaster aasmah mir, and jess brammar, head of news at the huffpost uk. that is coming up after the headlines at 11:30pm. now it is time for the weather, with ben rich. hello. a lot going on with our weather at the moment. wind and rain sweeping across the country. what hope of anything quieter in the 10—day outlook is back well, stay with me and i will tell you. not in the short term for thursday there could be some travel disruption courtesy of gales and heavy rain.

your bbc local radio station will keep you up—to—date. it is all because of this, an area of low pressure still developing across the south—west of the british isles. a lot of light lines, a lot of isobars on this chart, so it is going to be windy, especially through the morning. wind gusts of 50, 60,70 mph. some exposed spots in the west may well see gust is a little stronger than that. even away from this swathe of windy weather it will bea this swathe of windy weather it will be a pretty blustery day all in all, but the rain will at least ten to clear away by the afternoon, clearing last of all from the north—east of scotland, then something a little bit dry and bright, some heavy showers working towards the west, and those temperatures between nine and 14 degrees, not bad at all for this time of year. however, as we go through thursday night we will see further showers flinging their way eastwards a cross further showers flinging their way eastwards across the country. you can see this as well here, that is an area of low pressure, to the north of the uk this time, on friday. strong winds where you see the light line wheezing together, especially across northern areas,

and those winds coming from the north for the north—west. so it will feel a little bit chilly at this stage. the biggest chance of showers on friday up towards the north—west. fewer showers, more dry weather, some spells of sunshine but with that feed of north or north—westerly winds, temperatures will be heading downwards. northern areas stay in some chilly air on saturday, but as this frontal system approaches, southern parts will turn mild again. uncertainty about how far north as the rain will get, but it we are hopeful it will clear through quite quickly on saturday to leave dry weather through the latter part of the day with some spells of sunshine. a split in the temperatures, 14 for london and plymouth and eight degrees in aberdeen. for sunday we do it all over again. another frontal system, another batch of rain, against uncertainty about how far north that will get. again we are optimistic it will get. again we are optimistic it will clear fairly quickly on sunday

to leave something a bit dry, a bit brighter, still with a scattering of showers, and those temperatures pretty