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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  December 2, 2018 2:30am-3:01am GMT

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this is bbc news, the headlines: the french president, emmanuel macron, has condemned violence in paris during nationwide anti—government protests. more than 260 people have been detained. the so—called "yellow vest" movement is angry about taxation and a range of economic issues. damage was caused to shops and the arc de triomphe was daubed with graffiti. theresa may says she's assured world leaders at the 620 summit in argentina that her brexit agreement is a "good deal for the global economy". japan's prime minister has urged mrs may to avoid a no—deal brexit, citing the concerns of japanese firms like honda and nissan. mexico's new president, andres manuel lopez obrador, has been sworn in. he pledged to end what he called failed neo—liberal policies that have led to an increase in poverty and mass migration. he also announced the creation of a huge free trade zone next to the border with the united states. now on bbc news, dateline london.
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hello and welcome to dateline london, the programme that puts some of the uk's leading commentators up against the foreign correspondents who file their stories for the folk back home with the dateline, "london". this week, the british prime minister appeals over the head of hostile politicians to the public. theresa may wants their support, though not their votes for her brexit deal, but has another public vote just become a bit more likely? in washington, the republican—run senate rebukes its own president over his foreign policy, and his former lawyer admits lying over mr trump's foreign affairs — of the russian kind. with me, mina al oraibi, who edits the national in abu dhabi,
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stephanie baker, an american journalist with bloomberg markets, the italian writer and film maker annalissa piras, the british political commentator steve richards. but first... "a blowhard" was george bush senior‘s verdict on the present occupant of the white house. an uncharacteristically withering put down from a republican politician of the old school. bush, who died late friday, was nixon's man at the un, ambassador to china, director of the cia, and reagan's vice—president. himself a one—term president, undone by a combination of bill clinton, a wealthy eccentric rival who cost him conservative votes, and a "read my lips" pledge of "no new taxes", which he broke. stephanie, what is his legacy? how will people remember the bush presidency? he is not well remembered for his domestic agenda. he oversaw a weak economy, went back on his pledge to not raise taxes in order to shore up a budget deficit. he is best—known for his foreign policy legacy.
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not unmarked, let's say. he sent troops into panama to overthrow noriega. the invasion, the war in iraq. the first war in 1991. many people criticised him for not going all the way to baghdad. his enduring legacy is the way he handled the end of the cold war and people forget that it could have turned out very differently. he handled the collapse of the soviet union with great deft. he could have really rubbed gorbachev‘s nose in it. he was very careful in his words and actions in how he managed that. he negotiated several historic arms—control treaties with gorbachev which is one of his most enduring legacies. he will be fondly remembered.
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he is part of the old republican party which is in the minority now and, given the way he did handle the end of the cold war, it is a reminder that words do matter. his brand of republicanism is definitely on the wane in the united states. mina, let's touch on that first gulf war. operation desert storm to give it its correct title at the time. pushing saddam hussein out of kuwait. someone who is from iraq originally, what is your take on his impact in the region? for sure the ability to put together a coalition, not only of western allies but actually people from the region and having them come together and have that coalition to push back saddam's army was very important for kuwait. this was a time when america could be relied on,
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if you were talking about the gulf. there is no longer that sentiment. however, for iraqis, there was a revolution after the war. there was an uprising that rose up against saddam. and encouraged by what geroge bush had said. it was encouraged by george bush senior's administration and of course saddam was allowed to fly his plane and literally mow down the people. those memories are very vivid in our minds. we would have had a very different country if they had been supported in the way they should have in 1991. he made some efforts towards peace in the middle east. all of that looked rather ineffective now ultimately. the madrid conference led to... all of that looks rather ineffective. in terms of the atlantic alliance, for those who look fondly back to the days when a us president was actually enthusiastic about europe and about europe's defence. yeah. he was obviously a lot easier to deal with than the current incumbent. the republican party,
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rather like the conservative party here, have now an identity crisis. trump is not really a republican in any recognisable sense. his son in many ways ran an unruly administration which was a big break from the more pragmatic approach. but he was a figure of the right. his economic policies were quite right wing. he didn't have much for reagan's voodoo economics as he called it. he gave clinton the space to develop an alternative narrative that got him out of two back after one term. he wasn't some sort of holy pragmatic figure, but compared with what followed, he absolutely personifies a different form of the republican party which now seems to be in bewildered retreat. what is your take on this man? it... he feels like a figure of history now, doesn't see? it is interesting what history does. i agree with my colleagues that
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what we thought about him at the time is completely different than what we think now that we have trump in the white house. he kind of switches the goalposts. i agree with steve and the others that he had old skill competence. he was a technocrat compared to current standards. he was a cia man. he set up and run an oil business. he was very, very competent and he did a lot of things with a kind of consideration and ability in diplomacy, in running operation that has disappeared. thank you for that tribute to george h w bush. we will return to the united states later in the programme. but to the uk... theresa may is on tour right now — and if the vote by british mps in a fortnight‘s time on her brexit deal doesn't go her way, her dash around the uk may turn out to have been a farewell tour. this weekend she's in argentina for the g20 summit. right now, that seems like an unavoidable inconvenience. faced with widespread parliamentary hostility to the withdrawl agreement she sealed in brussels last sunday, she's taking her case to the public. this may not be the only
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appeal to the voters. john mcdonnell, probably the most powerful figure in the opposition labour party, said that if mrs may's deal is rejected and labour can't engineer a general election, a fresh referendum would be "inevitable". we have had another resignation this week. a reminder of how hard it is for theresa may to get the votes to get this deal through. butjohn mcdonnell‘s intervention is interesting. for those who don't know him, why is he so important and what is the significance, or not about the remarks about a second referendum? he is the pivotal figure in the labour party, in my view. he is the driving force behind many of the policies. he is a figure that jeremy corbyn defers to on many policy and strategic issues.
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he was the great surprise of the corbyn era and surfaced as a formidable interviewee, which matters at the moment. as well as this force behind the labour party. when he appears to be moving, after being incredibly reluctant publicly a few months ago, towards a referendum, that is significant, because in the uk there is a hung parliament. what the labour party decides to do is almost as important as what the conservative party decides to do. that is why it is significant. there is still a long way from it. this week has been wholly bizarre in the competitive field. on monday she returned to the house of commons with her historic deal. and for an hour there wasn't a single mp saying anything positive about it. you then had the government publishing its own economic predictions or forecasts, all saying the uk will be poorer with their own policy than any other. then you had her tour, even though there isn't a referendum. things are moving so fast
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but it is worth remembering just how utterly bizarre politics in the uk are at the moment. annalissa, donald tusk said this week, that it is the only deal in town and if this deal doesn't go through, he said we are probably looking at a no—deal brexit or may be no brexit at all. do people really think that will be the case if it is voted down? a lot of people in britain are convinced something will have to be found. the even timed this vote at westminster the day before the european summitjust in case she has to go to brussels to consult. it is a bizarre saga. the referendum has been marked by one constant feature, that the british people do not understand the way that the rest of europe is thinking about them. i think that what you need to understand in what donald tusk says is that there is a kind of bewilderment in continental
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europe about britain at the moment. this kind of strange, not clarity about where this country is going to go. i think that what donald tusk has said is simply that the time for having your cake and eating it is done. what is the position of the european union has been very clear. you can't have everything as before and be out. this has been clear in the resignation of the minister for science today because he made it very clear, this is a deal only in name because there are things that britain will not be able to get a deal on, especially on security. the minister who resigned today was protesting about the failure to secure the galileo system. what donald tusk was saying
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is don't entertain any more the fantasy that if you fail, if you let may fail, you will get something better. this is over. that is what he was saying. the uk has invested {1.2 billion into that project. one of the headquarters of galileo is actually in the uk at the moment. so to lose that completely was not in the minds of many people when they were arguing about brexit. the other issue is time. we have four months to go, so this idea that... maybe we will get an extension. to what end ? what is going to change in anothersix oreight months if it is postponed than more disarray? so it is really hard to read from the outside. for those of us not spending all our time in london. it really is looking so insular. india hasjust moved to become the fourth largest economy
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and the uk has become one step back in world economy. there is something about it that you hope politicians would come together to plan for five years' time. young people will be most affected by what brexit looks like. i think donald tusk's point that there could be no brexit, you could actually change how it goes, but i don't think it will be acceptable for the people who voted to leave. it has crowded out... it has crowded out a serious discussion of where the uk will be post— brexit. the bank of england came out with scenarios of what might happen in case of no deal. may's deal, etc... the bank of england governor was attacked for being a scaremonger, project fear. i think the main line of the brexit argument, which is there will be a pot of gold at the end of the brexit rainbow, no—one is discussing and looking at it. what kind of uk economy
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are we going to have? what kind of trade policy are we going to have? a couple of economists did a interesting study looking at the prospects for the uk post—brexit to do trade deals that would replace the eu. they concluded that if the uk did a trade deal with the us, for instance, that it would only offer about 15% of the benefits of remaining in the single market and customs union and that even if the uk strikes trade deals with china, india, australia, new zealand, again many countries... it still does not make up the numbers. it still doesn't make up for the lost, the void of leading the eu. -- leaving. steve, michael gove is one of the most influential ministers in the cabinet. he was saying this week and there is a real danger that if the may option is voted down, brexit itself is in peril. is that a serious risk or simply
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to frighten the backbenchers? serious risk of serious hope, depending on your perspective. if this deal falls, all options become possible. there will be an air of crisis, even though people are now anticipating this to happen, that she will be defeated on december the 11th in the house of commons. and he is right, in those circumstances, staying in becomes a much stronger possibility because either through a referendum or through other means, perhaps people will conclude that this is the best route forward, irrespective of what happened in the referendum in 2016. other options will surface as well. so i think he is probably making the right call from his perspective. i'm sure he doesn't like this deal but it gets britain out, which is what he has wanted since it was about six months old. last week, donald trump made clear
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that us relations with saudi arabia wouldn't be affected by the killing ofjamal khashoggi and the alleged involvement of crown prince mohammad bin salman. "maybe he did and maybe he didn't" know about it, the president opined. regardless, us relations were with the kingdom not the prince, even if he is de facto the ruler of saudi arabia. this wednesday the us senate, controlled by president's own party, delivered its verdict. by a majority of 63—37 it passed a motion withdrawing us support for the saudi—led military intervention in yemen, one of the crown prince's messiest initiatives. "saudi arabia is an ally — of sorts", senator bob corker, republican chairman of the foreign relations committee observed, but it has "a crown prince that's out of control". mina, notwithstanding that, the crown prince is at the g20 this weekend in argentina which has seen various meetings with other significant players. do you think describing saudi arabia
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asa semi—important... do you think mr corker who describes saudi arabia as a semi—important country was aiming his message at saudi arabia or trump? at trump. one thing that is happening is that it has become a domestic issue and is to put pressure on donald trump that. that is to the misfortune of the people in the middle east because very few people are interested in what is happening on the ground. and what would any weakening or harm to saudi arabia mean for the region? that is an argument that trump makes but in the wrong way because he is making an argument, most people are pushing back because of his policies. i would say, the description about yemen and the messiest foreign policies, yes, it is a war. it is one of those things that is really difficult to witness but for the countries involved, this is a wae that is a result of a coup that happened. 70% of the people of yemen need humanitarian aid.
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we need another political track and we need people to get serious about how we can make those talks succeed. we could get stuck in a loop with international conferences. like we got stuck in with syria. people meeting and nothing happening. then people don't want to get involved the next time. they have said it is putting on the pressure. the us role is important. it is more symbolic and it is a way of saying, we do need to get internationally recognised government back into the seat of power. there are us security council resolutions. we have a weakness on building real coalitions. how can we bring stability back to yemen? instead it has become taking shots at trump. that is not anyway to degrade serious issue. this is more about politics
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than worrying about ending this war. when you have the possibility of talks in geneva in september, it was the government that pushed one side to go to the negotiating table. the other side decided to not even turn up. you have the un envoy saying he will go personally to escort them to the talks. this is childish. the point is that, so much is what we are discussing here is maturity in politics. how do we get to that level of maturity? how do we find solutions? whatever we might think of the crown prince, he is the man we need to deal with and saudi arabia is an important player. not least because of its role in trying to get the government backing
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him. but the reaction of the congress has been to contradict him. they have said, yes, saudi arabia is a bastion of stability in the middle east but to a certain point because the crown prince looks like he is out of control. what is happening in congress is quite important and i think the blood of khashoggi on the hands of the crown prince is permanent. i don't think there is any way back. doubled with the pointlessness and the recklessness of the yemen war, which is a completely crazy war... i don't think it is pointless. it is counter—productive because if you think about the reasons and motives of the americans that support it, they are achieving the opposite result. it is partly about iran but it is not all about iran. it was one big reason. that al qaeda in the arabian
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peninsula is quite a big threat. for america's interest it is a much bigger threat. it is not working out in terms of geopolitics and it is not serving the american interest. that is what congress is saying enough. i think there is an identity crisis in the republican party. republicans who were staunch supporters of trump said, wait a minute, this is a step too far. this is callous disregard for the murder of a journalist. a journalist who was living in northern virginia onto a couple of months ago. it is a step too far. they might welcome his piling up pressure on iran, which is one of the campaigning themes of the republican party, trump's disregard for these american values of democracy and human rights and freedom of the press, that flies in the face of what has been the traditional hallmark of the republican party.
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let's talk about the mueller inquiry and donald trump's domestic difficulties. it is raised its head again. effectively, michael cohen adminted he lied about how long he was talking to the russians. isn't this veering away from what the inquiry was supposed to be about? no, on the contrary. i think it was the most significant turning point in the investigation. the fact that we now will that michael cohen, on behalf of trump, was in discussions with russia up until june 2016. just a couple of months before the republican convention. and he got a response from the kremlin on this proposal. to build a trump tower equivalent in moscow. which is a lifelong dream of trump.
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he was in direct communication with the kremlin when trump was saying "i have no business deals in russia, i have nothing to do with russia." more importantly, ithink, michael cohen has spent 70 hours with the investigators. this is perhaps the tip of the iceberg with what he has offered them. we don't know what else he has offered them. has he contradicted trump's written answers? does it create legal jeopardy for donald junior because donald junior testified in closed congressional hearings. did trump try to offer him a pardon through back door channels and that will open up a whole obstruction case? these questions are still hanging in the air, but a new congress takes office injanuary and the house
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in democrat hands will be enthusiastic to get its teeth into it. that is one area where it has complete power to do so. they can raise the level of scrutiny to new, intense levels. i don't think trump thought he would win the presidential contest. when you start interrogating what he was up to before, he is going to be in real trouble. i don't think he expected to win. unless there was no collusion. it was a business relationship and nothing to do with politics. that is possible. you have trump's lawyer in communication with the kremlin. as well as his son, his campaign manager and his son in law meeting with a russian lawyer who had the backing. of the russian prosecutor. one thing that is hard
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to get your head around, the president is at the centre of this has the part in power. people look at this and say, what can he make in terms of promises and pardons that he can deliver? so this whole idea about the pardon is surreal. given that he regards the presidential role is to provide a public running commentary, he is obviously targeting everything that he says about the agonies of dealing with the saudis in the new context, theresa may was photographed with him. she was sitting down with him. putin was their high fiving him. there are many hypocrites in this particular issue, notjust him. we will return to that issue. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. on saturday it was 15 degrees across
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the south of the country and it looks like sunday will be every bit as mild across parts of southern england, even across northern england, even across northern england temperatures will be in the genes. the chance of showers and the cloud to streaming in the atlantic coming in from the south—west where the air is coming from. a little colder in scotland where we have had clear skies so there is a touch of frost just outside clear skies so there is a touch of frostjust outside of town centres. the weather map is messy at the
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moment with weather fronts crossing the country so there is a lot of cloud in the forecast for the rest of the night and into sunday. its and pieces of rain in the north the skies have cleared so it is colder and the temperatures in aberdeen on sunday morning are around three degrees whereas in the south it is 11 or 12 degrees whereas in the south it is 11 or12 and degrees whereas in the south it is 11 or 12 and that is an overnight temperature. exceedingly mild. this weather pattern will continue not just through sunday but into monday, tuesday and wednesday. weather fronts and low pressures coming in and bringing us this fairly cloudy at mild weather with rain at times. you can see the west south—westerly is here where the air is coming from and a hint that perhaps more of a northerly in the very far north of the uk where it will be quite a bit colder on sunday. these are the windspeeds. light wind in the north and a little sunshine in scotland. not too bad at all, we are used to lower temperatures across this part
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of the world. look at that, 15, 16 across the south of the uk. sunday night into monday sees another layer of low pressure with its low front moving into central and southern parts of the uk. once again we expect some rain from the early morning across wales, the south—west, eastern and northern areas waking up to sunshine but quickly that will cloud over in the rain will march through. it will not rain will march through. it will not rain everywhere and it will not be happy that looks at the second part of the afternoon on monday looks a little clearer and colder again. it will stay on the mild side across the southern half of the uk with temperatures reaching double figures for most of the week. in the north it will turn chilly early on. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. i'm reged ahmad. our top stories: after talks between presidents trump and xi,
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the us says it now it won't slap new tariffs on china. french anger on the streets of paris. "yellow vest" protesters take on police in the heart of the city. president macron is furious. translation: the authors of this violence do not want change, they don't want any improvement, they just want to wreak chaos. tributes are paid to former us president george h w bush, a key player in the end of the cold war. will there be a new heavyweight boxing champion?
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