the un secretary general, antonio guterres, has told an international summit in poland that the world is still not doing enough, fast enough, to prevent catastrophic climate change. earlier the naturalist sir david attenborough warned heads of state and government that the collapse of our civilisation, and much of the natural world, is now on the horizon. president trump and first lady melania have paid their respects at the rotunda of the us capitol, where the body of former president george hw bush is lying in state. mr bush, the 41st president, died on friday aged 94. he will be buried on thursday. mexico's new president, andres manuel lopez obrador, has signed a decree creating a truth commission to investigate the kidnapping and killing of 43 student—teachers four years ago. it sparked weeks of protests, and prosecutors have accused the security forces of involvement. it is about 4:30 a.m.. you're

up—to—date on the headlines. ty now for hardtalk. —— time now for. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. written‘s prime minister, theresa may, is facing a new dini inside rang conservative party, which threatens to scupper her brexit deal, upright —— quite possibly her premiership as well. she loses the key parliamentary vote in a few days time the uk will plunge headlong into political chaos. the stakes could hardly be higherfor my guest today, 0wen paterson, a conservative mp and former minister intent on rejecting mrs may's brexit. is it too late to avert a damaging national crisis? 0wen paterson, welcome to hardtalk.

thank you very much for invitingly. these are the most extraordinary febrile days in a british politics and everyday there is a new effort by theresa may and her key cabinet collea g u es by theresa may and her key cabinet colleagues to persuade people like you to rally behind her and support her deal with the eu 27. are you seeing or hearing anything that is persuading new? to vote for this deal? we have know when for a long time that you are against the deal. absolutely not. i have read every page of it. it is completely appalling. it's completely and

totally fails to deliver the promise made to the british people in the referendum that we would leave. and the promise made to the british people in the general election that leave m ea nt people in the general election that leave meant leaving the single market, leaving the customs union, and leaving the remit of the european court of justice, and leaving the remit of the european court ofjustice, wasn't —— which wasn't just a european court ofjustice, wasn't —— which wasn'tjust a conservative party manifesto, it was endorsed by the labour party. most voters endorse that. this does not begin to go near it. in fact, it goes backward. you use that tone and these grand phrases, it doesn't come close, as clear as day it can't be acceptable, how is it then that collea g u es acceptable, how is it then that colleagues of yours in the brexit movement, if i can put it that way, who have remained in the cabinet, see this deal in such very different terms? totally incompatible to me. i really genuinely don't understand it. i was a minister, really genuinely don't understand it. iwas a minister, i really genuinely don't understand it. i was a minister, i was in charge of the cep reforms... the

common agricultural reforms. charge of the cep reforms... the common agricultural reformslj charge of the cep reforms... the common agricultural reforms. i went along with 37 other countries, we have allies, we stop some of the really stu pid have allies, we stop some of the really stupid things happening, we are outvoted on many things. from now want it is hard for your view is to imagine this, law will be imposed on the united kingdom where we will not have been present. and don't forget, up until now, we have the pebble in the issue, we have been pushing for exciting new technologies, free trade around the world, so we won't be holding the protections european back, they will make this protection is law, it will come to us, we will have no means of amending it, no means of repealing it, if we don't obey it we will get clobbered by the european court of justice with a huge fine. it is com pletely justice with a huge fine. it is completely unacceptable. there is a nick extraordinaire happening in british politics. you say that to me. iam british politics. you say that to me. i am looking at the words of prime minister theresa may, let us not forget, your prime minister, the leader of your clinical party who wrote this letter to the nation if you days ago saying we will take back control of our borders, ending free movement, we will take back control of our money, putting an end to the vast annual payments to the

eu, and will take back control of oui’ eu, and will take back control of our laws by ending the jurisdiction of the european court ofjustice. either she is living in cloud cuckoo land or you are. or you wonder if she has really read every page of an agreement? i have took to is a very senior lawyers about this. i am not a lawyer. their interpretation is emphatically that that statement is wrong. we will be shelling out 39 billion and probably more if you get into the next financial round if it drags on, but we will absolutely be under the... drags on, but we will absolutely be under the. .. are you drags on, but we will absolutely be under the... are you impugning drags on, but we will absolutely be under the. .. are you impugning her integrity? when you say that is absolutely wrong you are saying that she is either utterly incompetent or she is either utterly incompetent or she is either utterly incompetent or she is a liar. no... good question. ifind it she is a liar. no... good question. i find it extraordinary the public statements, they are not in tune with my understanding and with lawyers because understanding of what is proposed. you take this with trade deals. i was in the states two weeks ago. they were absolutely clear at ustr, there were senior members of the democrat party and republican party, completely clear that the united states cannot await

a deal with a country that does not decide its own tariffs and is not decide its own tariffs and is not decide its own regulation. it is quite clear in this 585 page document we will not be deciding our ta riffs document we will not be deciding our tariffs and we will not be deciding a regular... for as long as britain stays inside the customs union, which we know will be until december 2020 as a result of the transition, and then could be longer because we do not know whether there will be success do not know whether there will be success in reaching a long—term trade agreement with the eu by that date, and if there is and then of course britain has agreed, according to the deal, to stay inside the customs union. one of the real horrors of this document, there is no way out camille abily, for the uk. infive no way out camille abily, for the uk. in five or ten years time, the uk. in five or ten years time, the uk says you have been messing us around, we are going to leave, you cannot do that without the agreement of the european union. it is the most extraordinary legally binding treaty. let us take another individual, micheal gove, who i think you would agree is very important to the brexit campaign

during the referendum, one of the key players in getting you to the 5296 key players in getting you to the 52% vote that one you that a referendum. michael gove in the last 24 hours has birdied ripley to people like you say, look, we must not make the perfect the good, and this deal is good, it gives britain lots of very important things, including tariff free access to the eu market place without having to pay for that access. and he says the europeans actually don't like that. it is something we should appreciate and that theresa may has delivered for us. i'm afraid i don't agree with michael either. we pay, what, 39 billion and we will be putting m, 39 billion and we will be putting in, we are paying about 12 billion sterling a year into the eu... that isa sterling a year into the eu... that is a payment for obligations and use that i went. are you suggesting we walk away without paying our bills? at the moment it is only i2% of our gdp. this whole thing is about a

small part of our trade and sadly a dwindling part of our trade. we have gone from 60% of our trade to the eu to about 45% now and about 35% in a few years time. we know because of the eu itself that 90% of the world of that growth will be outside the eu. we know that our trade to 100 countries on wto terms, growing three times faster than our trade into the eu, from within it, where we are now. so this huge to hire about the smaller dwindling part of oui’ about the smaller dwindling part of our trade... it is about the smaller dwindling part of our trade. .. it is small. 40% of about the smaller dwindling part of our trade. .. it is small. 4096 of our trade is with the european union. our trade. .. it is small. 4096 of our trade is with the european unionm is 496 trade is with the european unionm is 4% of our gdp. trade is with the european unionm is 496 of our gdp. when you're talking about trade you have to compare what the eu offers with what others offer —— 12% of our gdp. compare what the eu offers with what others offer -- 1296 of our gdp. we don't pay to trade with united states or china or india or anywhere else. that is if you do. that is where the growth is in the world. you don't know that, but what we do

know, what we do know is that if the british government can't make a deal with the eu and march 29, the deadline comes along, and were crashed out without a deal, it will have an extraordinarily deleterious damaging effect on the uk economy. have an extraordinarily deleterious damaging effect on the uk economylj damaging effect on the uk economy.” have to say why. we trade with the rest of the world on world trade organization rest of the world on world trade 0rganization terms. there are 164 countries, 90% of the world ‘s trade is on world trade organization terms, that is a legal framework designed specifically for orderly trade. the european union is a legal entity, it obeys laws. it signed up to the wto's on trade facilitation, on sanitary rulings. it signed up to the tiote deal on the world trade 0rganization, why are they arbitrarily going to go delinquent break the law? they would not be going delinquent. caris would be imposed. you know that. why are? --

tariffs. be your cat —— the eu would treat uk as a third party. caris would be imposed. 10% on vehicles, up would be imposed. 10% on vehicles, up to 35% on some agriculture products. you know that it is true. there are still time to negotiate that. we could do... could you just acknowledge that what i have said is true and that therefore all these people from the cbi onward to individual industrial sectors were talking about the disaster of a no deal brexit they have a fundamental point, if he tariffs come in their business model will be destroyed. there is time for us to take up the deal offered on the seventh of march by president task, a wide—ranging free—trade agreement, which foundered the issue of the northern ireland border. there are still time, if we get rid of this appalling draft document next tuesday, we can move to that very rapidly... i won't speak on behalf

of the european union... jean—claude juncker has said very clearly after this deal was made with theresa may, to quote his words, this is the best deal, this is the only deal. as president trump said it is the best dealfor the european president trump said it is the best deal for the european union, president trump said it is the best dealfor the european union, quite right. we will go to hope to get rid of it next week. we then have a chance to go back and i went to see michel barnier to discuss the irish border, and it is very clear this free—trade deal is still on offer. sorry, when was this meeting? 0ctober... sorry, when was this meeting? october... before theresa may signed the deal with the eu 27. the eu 27 have made a decision. they have made their position, things have moved on, this is the deal is as they are concerned. it is our parliament rejects it resoundingly, as it looks as though it is going to, as we count today the mps have declared publicly they will vote against it, the eu will have to think again. the obvious answer is to go back to what they originally offered us, a

competency of free—trade deal with adults like aviation security and other side deals. there is still time to do that. —— add—ons like. let me finish. you can then move onto the world trade organization terms, having trickled article 24 of the gatt treaty, which says that if you started a free—trade agreement you started a free—trade agreement you can carry on on the current basis, which is zero tariffs, so we could do that with the eu —— triggered. you have ten years to com plete triggered. you have ten years to complete it. so that... to pick how it is in your vision of how things should be. it are 7two readers on your side of the argument that doing a deal with the eu would be easy. that is not true. we know it is not true. is it today in the middle of this crisis. the problems with your vision a manifold. if the eu was interested in renegotiating this

deal, making it some sort of super canada plus trade agreement you would not have acknowledged or address the problem of the irish border, which is essential to the eu's position. well, i have done. because i read the paper with the european research group which we sent to the government and sent to michel barnier back in september. that shows very clearly that with the existing techniques and existing processors the existing techniques and existing pi’ocessoi’s under the existing techniques and existing processors under existing eu law, and this is advised by people who really do understand customs, so an organisation that represents 19,000 customs organisations...” organisation that represents 19,000 customs organisations... i recollect all of this. i also recollect the irish prime minister saying there is absolutely no way the irish governor degrees with york position on what can be done at the irish border —— the irish governor degrees. as for as he is concerned is that it is nonsense. if you would go down as canada free—trade like there would bea canada free—trade like there would be a hard border. there will never be a hard border. there will never bea be a hard border. there will never be a hard border. there will never be a hard border, because the uk government won't build one, the

irish governor won't build one, and the eu won't buy one. it is a com plete the eu won't buy one. it is a complete paper tiger. it won't happen. let us be realistic, look at what happens in the rest of the world, all borders are moving towards more automation, preclearance, the systems all exist 110w. preclearance, the systems all exist now. there is nothing new, nothing alarming... existing techniques, existing processors within existing law. that is how you sort the irish border. and of course the turnover, very important locally, is tiny. it is 4.9% of all northern ireland sales go south of the border. regular shipments on milk, livestock, i think 16,000 regular shipments on milk, livestock, ithink16,000 border crossings of guinness, these are very regular repetitive shipments of materials, which are well... the ulster farmer's materials, which are well... the ulsterfarmer‘s union materials, which are well... the ulster farmer's union says that a no deal outcome would be a, quote,

catastrophe for norden island's farmers. you aren't persuading anybody —— northern ireland. your view of what must happen next is the most enormous gamble, given everything that the bank of england is saying what would come with a no—deal brexit, the office of budget responsibility, the institute for fiscal studies, you may laugh, but these this is project fear, what are we up to, six or seven. we had these ludicrous forecast that if the british people were stupid enough to leave the eu, we would have this cache of thick fall in economy. a huge rise in unemployment, claps in foreign direct investment. what happened was that they were wrong by over 100 billion sterling. the economy grew. . . over 100 billion sterling. the economy grew... no, no, that is what they said would happen if we were stupid enough to vote. no, no, they said it would happen after the vote, the george osborne nonsense, the £9

million going around to every house and they were completely wrong.” hardly believe you are in a position to lecture about people being wrong when you on this side of the argument said from the vet —— very beginning that exit would be easy, that britain held the cards and negotiations with the eu, that they would be a massive brexit dividend of some £350 million a week that could be ploughed into the nhs. these things were what your. to criticise others for getting some economic forecast wrong, seems to me, that sort. —— absurd. economic forecast wrong, seems to me, that sort. -- absurd. there was a very clear prediction by the treasury at the time of the referendum that should people vote in the referendum, there will be an economic. an emergency budget, we we re economic. an emergency budget, we were told. clear forecast that were proved to be totally wrong and they have come up with more ludicrous forecast. we found out today, if we did free—trade agreements around the world, you would see a 0.2% increase

it is not credible that such a tiny increase in economic activity... we have aired the position that you still take on wire, it in your view, not speaking for you, i would like to hear it from your only, you think no deal is clearly better than theresa may's deal. yes or no? there is no such thing as no deal. there will be world trade organization terms, with side things like aviation, which is already done. let's call it the disorderly brexit. it is not disorderly. the world trade organization has imposed order on it. there is 1— 64 countries... the eu, if it doesn't do what you are convinced it is going to do, which is apparently bowed down to return's interest, it will go into disputes, disputes at the wto take yea rs disputes, disputes at the wto take years and years to resolve, so it

will be at disorderly brexit. ijust wa nt to will be at disorderly brexit. ijust want to know whether that, in your view, with the potential disorder, is better than theresa may's deal? there is an establishment narrative peddling that the dub eto is going offa peddling that the dub eto is going off a cliff. is working within the framework of world trade, which covers 98% of world trade. the eu is building up to 100 million surplus, why on earth are they going to jeopardise that? very importantly, all of our standards are the same. 0ne all of our standards are the same. one of the real books in the wto is that you cannot hide behind standard as an excuse. in trade. —— for stopping trade. they will have no grounds to stop trade. it is fair to say i got the message, on yielding when it comes to the arguments about the economics of brexit, the implications of brexit. .. emphatically better than this deal.

absolutely no question, we are far better rejecting this deal. i intend to do that next week when i vote. clearly you do. get rid of that on be back to a proper discussion back in march, a conference in free—trade deal. that is the way to go. you believe you are going to win, that theresa may's deal is toast when it comes to this big parliamentary vote on december 11, yes? comes to this big parliamentary vote on december“, yes? i very much hope so. what happens then? what will you do in political terms? will you call for her to quit, others that put their letters demanding a vote for a new conservative party leader already in, will you put one in and using the conservative party will see a challenge to theresa may's leadership if she loses that vote ? may's leadership if she loses that vote? what we want the leadership to do is to go back to the manifesto and go back to the wang custer house of speech and deliver that. leave the single market, the customs union

and leave the european court of justice and that means going back to donald tusk straightaway and say we ta ke donald tusk straightaway and say we take up your offer because we now have a solution to the irish border. i want to discuss real politic with you. we don't have much time. will you, or will you not, you. we don't have much time. will you, orwill you not, put in you. we don't have much time. will you, or will you not, put in a letter as others have done and force a leadership challenge in the conservative party if she loses that vote ? conservative party if she loses that vote? everybody wants to go to personalities, i want to get to the —— policy. personalities, i want to get to the -- policy. the labour party have made it clear that if she loses that vote they will force a vote of confidence in the government. would you do? of course vote for a vote of confidence. the idea of having a crazy marxist regime run by corbyn would be stroppy. here is what jacob rees mogg, a close alley —— ally of yours says, we now have a government led by remainers who want to keep us tied to the eu as tightly as possible. if you believe that, how can you possibly think that theresa may is go to deliver you the brexit

you want? she said the right things in the elections and at lake house to house. why don't we go back to that? -- to house. why don't we go back to that? —— banister house. to house. why don't we go back to that? -- banister house. you are not prepared to engage with the real world today, you will hark back to what she said many to go, rather than where she is today with her deal, committed to it with a cabinet that supports it. if it goes down, i struggle to see how would you, with any credibility, can still regard her as the leader of the party. sorry about that, but i see myself asa sorry about that, but i see myself as a mainstream conservatives who wa nts to as a mainstream conservatives who wants to see the manifesto delivered. you get people initially coming up to me saying that you are going to do this, do not go to let us going to do this, do not go to let us down. it happens the whole time. 17.4 million expected to be delivered. she promised in the election, it was an election ma nifesto, election, it was an election manifesto, she got the second largest number of vote is sincejohn major. endorsed by the party. if we don't embrace this it will be less

get —— catastrophic... don't embrace this it will be less get -- catastrophic... joe johnson, who quit the government as a result of his deep dislike of this theresa may brexit dealfrom of his deep dislike of this theresa may brexit deal from a very different perspective from yours, he was a remainer and wanted written to have a referendum. he says that there must now be, because there is no parliamentary majority it anything else, there must be a parliamentary vote to order another referendum. that does look increasingly likely, doesn't it? no, i don't think it will get through the commons. david cameron said give mea the commons. david cameron said give me a majority, i will promise you and your zero me a majority, i will promise you and yourzero —— me a majority, i will promise you and your zero —— and in out referendum. he won, we had a referendum, 17.4 million people voted to leave again a huge wall of propaganda bombarded by the treasury, all of that. that was interpreted to me, we the single market, customs union, eecjoke in

our manifesto. —— ecj. those are three huge democratic statements by the british people, please leave the european union. so you are a democrat who is tried to tell me that a referendum, now we know what the real alternatives are when it comes to brexit and what exactly means, you are a democrat who is claiming to me that putting it back to the british people with new knowledge is antidemocratic? bizarrely, it is. you are right, it is bizarre. what you said is bizarre, do you acknowledge that? it's it the williams final at will be at —— wimbledon, is it the best of three or best of five? the art it has substantially changed, the british people now, as they did not know in 2016, now know what brexit will mean and surely any democrat would then say that the british people have a right to decide, now it is clear what it means, whether they want it. no, because sadly the

government, having been elected on a ma nifesto government, having been elected on a manifesto has made a complete botch. what is being offered is a mile from brexit. people want to leave. they voted to leave. that is not being offered at the moment. a final thought, if i may. i have had several mps in recent days talking very openly and honestly about how difficult they find the current decision that faces them. they are losing sleep, they feel enormous burden of responsibility and a i'm not entirely sure what the right in to do is. i don't get any sense that you are waning this decision with that sense of a burden upon you in any way at all. —— weighing.” that sense of a burden upon you in any way at all. -- weighing. i have been working on this stuff will be ever since i became an mp and saw which way the european community at that time was going. what we are looking at is a continent which only has one other with a slower rate of

growth and that is antarctica. the rest of the world is really growing, the rest of the world is mad keen to trade with us and there is an opportunity. we have two end it there, at 0wen paterson, thank you very much for being on hardtalk. —— to end it there. hello. a quieter, colder spell of weather for tuesday, but then the weather gets more active again from midweek. yes, it'll get milder, but it'll also turn wetter and windier once again. but at least for tuesday, we are in a gap between weather systems. here's the next one coming in, really isn't much of an issue though until we get to tuesday night and wednesday.

but in that gap between weather systems, temperatures dropping away to give a widespread frost for tuesday morning, as low as —6 in highland scotland. this a few mist and fog patches around as well, and ice a potential hazard across northern and western parts of scotland, where we've seen a few showers overnight, wintry on hills, more to come for the first part of tuesday. but for many for much of the day, it is dry, it is sunny, but yes, it's cold. the cold enhanced by the increasing cloud, though, across southern and south—western parts. as we go on through the day, some rain into the far south—west by the end of the day may see double figures here, but most of us around four to seven degrees. but again, through parts of highland scotland, there will be some places hovering close to freezing. and on through tuesday evening and night, here comes the rain, slowly pushing northwards through more of england, wales, into northern ireland. ahead of that weather system, temperatures are dropping away again, for a frost, coldest again in highland scotland. some fog patches, it becomes less cold though from the south, where you see that rain moving in. and then for wednesday,

there's some uncertainty about how far north the wet weather will get. could well see some snow though into the pennines, the southern uplands, and if it gets that far north, into the higher ground north of the central belt. much of northern scotland, though, looking to stay dry and cold. elsewhere, it is less cold where you're seeing the wetter, breezier conditions. the rain will clear away from northern ireland, but a big range of temperatures from north to south across the uk. now, as we look at the bigger picture for thursday and friday, further weather fronts on thursday, so further outbreaks of rain pushing eastwards, but we're really focusing on friday as a deepening area of low pressure comes across the northern half of the uk. so it's here we're going to see the strongest winds, particularly affecting parts of scotland, northern ireland, northern england, irish sea coasts, with gales or even severe gales in places, potentially destructive winds, and along with that, there'll be some more wet weather around as well and some snowfall, particularly into the hills of scotland. so we are monitoring that weather system very closely. i will provide you with further updates.

but this is how the rest of the week is shaping up. after the colder, drier, sunnier tuesday, it will be turning wetter, very windy, potentially stormy at the end of the week, but it will be turning milder for all of us for a time. this is the briefing. i'm sally bundock. our top story: british mps are to vote on whether the government is in contempt of parliament by not publishing the legal advice it's received about the prime minister's brexit deal. i'm kasia madera in westminster, where this issue is likely to delay the debate on the deal itself. it's due in a week's time. president trump pays his respects to george h w bush, whose body is lying in state in the us capitol rotunda. the military exercise with a difference. remote controlled robots take over to keep up in a tech—driven global arms race. and in business briefing: executives

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