long "cc ‘ur v“ long will force closer. how long will force field written hold on, we will find out. i could look at this all day but we have to get on with the rest of the weather for the week ahead and take it day by day —— force field britain. weather fronts of stalling, one from western scotland, the east of northern ireland, west wales, giving a bit of patchy rain. east of england will see increasing sunny spells on through wednesday and most other places, barring a few light showers, looking dry. this weather front dies a death going into thursday, another one tries to come in and fails. the blocking high pressure is stronger on thursday. the wind around it on the continent is stronger and colder. most will be dry. there will be sunny spells around, but because of the stronger wind it is going to feel much colder. we are importing cold air in from the continent. so the temperature is well down into single figures but when you factor in that stronger wind it feels colder still. it feels like it is colder to

freezing across some areas and especially in the strongest wind. as we go into friday, it looks like a frosty start for some of us on friday. the wind is not going to be as strong. numerically, looking at the thermometer, it looks like being the thermometer, it looks like being the coldest day of the week, but the wind is not a strong and some sunny spells around. in the weather system from the atlantic, is this ongoing to stall? no, it looks like this is going to move in across the uk over the weekend as force field britain gives way in thejetstream has more ofan gives way in thejetstream has more of an influence across us. but a messy picture on saturday. winds pick up, the rain, and pushing into that colder air, some snow spreading north and east. a lot of uncertainty, it probably won't look like this by the time we get to the end of the day, but the possibility of snow on the leading edge, maybe just not on hills, at some significant snow across parts of scotland, especially on hills. all of that looks like it will gradually push on through going into part two

of the weekend on sunday. less cold they are starting to move in from they are starting to move in from the south—west. a few showers on sunday, but some sunny spells as well. there is a contrast, a range of temperatures on sunday. it looks like further north and east we still have some pretty chilly air in place. as we go deeper into next week, it looks like the atlantic weather, as it takes control, will eventually filled some milder air northwards across the uk and the south—westerly flow. a deep area of low pressure to the south—west of us, ourtrough, a dip in the jetstrea m, us, ourtrough, a dip in the jetstream, but the jetstream us, ourtrough, a dip in the jetstream, but thejetstream is at least coming into the uk, where at the moment all that means it is pretty unsettled next week. spells of wet and windy weather but fairly mild. it looks like that sort of weather prevails in the run—up to christmas, and keep watching weather for the week ahead as christmas eventually comes into our view. hello, this is bbc news. we will

look at tomorrow morning's papers in a moment in the company of our reviewers, tim and polly. here are the headlines: the government has opened fire at a christmas market in strasbourg and at least two people have died. the suspect it is thought is engaged in a shootout with police. one eyewitness try to help a man who was shot. after 45 minutes of attempting to save his life he was pronounced that. he was a tourist from thailand in his 30s accompanied by his girlfriend or wife. other than that i can't tell you what is happening. he isa i can't tell you what is happening. he is a foreigner, tourist, who like many people went to see the christmas market. theresa may is backin christmas market. theresa may is back in downing street tonight after a rapid tour of european capitals, meeting leaders and officials asking for more assurances on her brexit deal. what has been shown to me from

those meetings is that there is a shared determination to deal with this issue and address this problem. in other news, the uk coastguard picked up six migrants who claim to be iranian as they cross the english channel. 100 others making the same journey have been detained in the last month. manchester city's manager pep guardiola hailed raheem sterling as an incredible human being for confronting racism following he was abused in city's premier league match in stamford bridge on saturday. hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are polly mackenzie, who's the director of the think—tank, demos, and the conservative commentator and journalist, tim montgomerie. well, you won't be surprised by what's dominating the front pages

tomorrow, it is theresa may and the prospects of her future as prime minister. with a plot to out the prime minister brewing, postcard snapshots from her whistle—stop tour of europe lead the front of the guardian, with smiles from theresa may as she attempted to find a breakthrough for her deal. but, despite the beaming prime minister, the metro reports that theresa may received a lukewarm reception from eu leaders. and, as the sun shows, even getting stuck in her car before meeting the german chancellor, angela merkel. the financial times quotes president of the european commission, jean claude juncker, who stands firm, saying there is no room for renegotiation. back here, and the daily mail reports that rebellious mps, which it describes as vultures, are preparing to strike with a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. the daily express says plotters are attempting to drive theresa may out of downing street with a barrage of letters of no confidence in the prime minister sent to sir graham brady, chair of the 1922 committee. the telegraph reveals

that former northern ireland secretary, owen paterson, is one of those who has written a letter expressing his lack of confidence in the mrs may. while the times reports that one cabinet ally of the prime minister has told them they believe a leadership challenge is definitely happening. so, there we are. the story of the night. polly, what do you make what you have seen, bearing in mind of course that the first editions would have gone before the news broke. evenif have gone before the news broke. even if they had gone to press two minutes ago, we wouldn't be certain what's going to happen tomorrow. there is this very strong rumour that graeme brady has met the prime minister after a very difficult prime minister's questions tomorrow. and that talks in fact have also started between the palace and

number ten because we don't know what will happen if there is a no—confidence vote in the prime minister and if she loses that, how that will be handled by the palace, will she be the prime minister, will she have to step down? you will remember when margaret thatcher lost, sorry, she won the no—confidence vote, she nevertheless stepped down. we live in very different political times. jeremy corbyn lost the no—confidence vote and said, gosh, how interesting, thanks for that information, and you can imagine theresa may, because she has this fastidious resilience and refusal to budge, that she might say that she will stick it out as prime minister. tim, what do you think the calculation is that is going through the mind of conservative mps tonight? we had george freeman on earlier and i would have thought of him asa earlier and i would have thought of him as a loyalist, but he used the

phrase, "the prime minister may have run out of runway" and his argument was for and into rent rather than leadership contest because he said it would look self—indulgent —— for an interum. . we are living in a 24—hour period during an incredible advent. theresa may cancelled the vote in the house of commons that was due to take place tonight. she was due to take place tonight. she was retreating on the flagship defining piece of legislation purpose of her premiership. and one of the differences that's taking place in this leadership challenge, which i think it will be, is a couple of weeks ago it was largely eurosceptics, but i think a lot of remain, brexit neutral tory mps are also part of the 48, because there isjust a feeling also part of the 48, because there is just a feeling that nothing also part of the 48, because there isjust a feeling that nothing is going forward now with theresa may. whether you are with her or against

her, the government seems completely stalled, and her premiership seems stalled, and her premiership seems stalled and that's the real danger for her. there has been a game changer this week, remember, for her. there has been a game changerthis week, remember, because the european court ruled that the uk can unilaterally revoked article 50, so theresa may's kind of one thing in her kind of defence, making the case for this deal that everyone hates was, it is the deal, or it is no deal, which most people thought would be a catastrophe because we are out of time, or brexit might be lost, and so both remainers, who don't want to run the risk of another referendum, and then brexiteers, who want it in one shape orform, could brexiteers, who want it in one shape or form, could have brexiteers, who want it in one shape orform, could have come around that, but now we know that parliament, at any point before march 19, can stop the clock, reset, pull out. so there is no chance any more of an accidental no deal. and that means that one kind of reason that means that one kind of reason that you might have had to compromise in the vote for theresa

may's compromise deal has gone and the chances of a referendum in the end coming forward, the people's vote as campaigners have called it, is much higher than it has been in recent months. let's brieflyjust look at another front page, the telegraph, may facing brexit moment of reckoning. so, tim, do you concur, moment of reckoning for her and for the whole brexit process? and are completely underlined the importance of the ruling as well because i think there will be tory mps who will be wary about tory leadership election at the moment if we only have three months to go and you are potentially using three, four, five weeks of it for a leadership contest because we have christmas, you have to have the hustings if theresa may has no confidence, and it would have to go into january. that, presumably, that is coming from her the tactical problem she has in the sense of

having to acknowledge that, having pulled this vote, it would have to happen by 21 january, actually it doesn't have to happen, the last political day, which allows enough time for a new leader, new prime minister, and conceivably more talks evenif minister, and conceivably more talks even if they are not formal negotiations. and i imagine, if, if, if, we must keep saying, be part of any leadership candidate's ppick would be the position on revoking article 50, which would be one of the central issues. and no one will stand a chance of being the next tory leader if they do not rule out a referendum. ithink tory leader if they do not rule out a referendum. i think the chance still of a referendum are very low because i don't think tory members by overwhelming majority would put up by overwhelming majority would put up witha by overwhelming majority would put up with a candidate who said that the vote in 2016 could be revisited. the daily mail describes those who are considering bringing her down as the vultures circling theresa may.

you know something about the grassroots of the tory party. we know it is a relatively small political party these days. it's got 100,000 members. certainly so, yeah. in the past, they have remained loyal to tory leaders after mps have stopped being loyal to them. is it still the case, or has brexit changed it? polling from conservative home, there is an awful lot of unhappiness with the prime minister. and of course the mail is not in favour of this leadership challenge, using the term vultures to describe the tory mps putting in their letter, but vultures hover over dead and dying beasts and unfortunately, as a political beast, thatis unfortunately, as a political beast, that is theresa may's position. it is notjust brexit that's gone wrong, she did no reset for the poor at she promised on the steps of downing street on her first day in office. immigration targets are not being met. we are seeing no tax

changes, no great housebuilding programme, her premiership is changing on almost every front and i think due to the slogans characterised by previous tory leadership elections, no change, no chance. polly, the sun reporting, not on the front cover, so we won't show that, it is reporting it is a challenge between saj and boris, sajid javid and boris johnson, challenge between saj and boris, sajid javid and borisjohnson, what happens, is it appealing in terms of what happens after brexit? happens, is it appealing in terms of what happens after brexit7m happens, is it appealing in terms of what happens after brexit? it is not appealing to me, but i think boris is just not up to the job, he is not a statesman, he is not capable of leading the country. he proved himself to be absolutely incapable of living up to the standards of the high office of state in the foreign office. sajid javid i think is a more attractive candidate. i think

with all of these candidacies, actually the people who are sited first, often they fall by the wayside and it's actually someone who comes in slightly late and you think, just when there is... various neuroscience around this, just as you're stuck in this decision, this other alternative that distracts you suddenly captures the imagination and we saw that with david cameron. and i think... i wouldn't think it is as simple as those two candidates. i think it is not as simple as anyone makes political predictions, it is a risky business, thatis predictions, it is a risky business, that is the best bet at this stage. would sajid javid be hampered, however reluctantly he said he was a remainer. he will be hampered by that. there is of course two stages if the tory leadership election happens. and although boris is the most popular politician in the country, he is not popular for all of the reasons polly mentions with

his parliamentary columns. he might not make it to the last eight. he might not make it to the final two, mps have the straw, the final two, thatis mps have the straw, the final two, that is where sajid javid is stronger because he was a reluctant remainer, he was reluctant, and also the party is very divided and i am not sure boris could unite the party very easily. and i think sajid javid has the opportunity to present himself as a unity candidate. it is a strong pitch. no prime minister, any of those candidates, no prime minister can change the reality of what the europeans are willing to offer us if we want to pull out of the customs union and the single market, which is what is basically necessary if we want to be able to make those trade deals tim was talking about earlier, bringing an end to free movement, pull out of the jurisdiction end to free movement, pull out of thejurisdiction of end to free movement, pull out of the jurisdiction of the european court. no prime minister can change the atmosphere. they can change one important reality which is delaying the european union. and they can do

what theresa may has irresponsibly failed to do which is to prepare for the possibility of no deal. so it would give more months to do that. potentially a year or so. because our negotiating position at the table is weak for many reasons, but one is the fact that europe knows we are not prepared to fall out of the eu without a deal. it couldn't be a year or so. the point is if you revoke article 50, even if you invokeit revoke article 50, even if you invoke it the next day, that is two more yea rs invoke it the next day, that is two more years with the block, and if you really want to delay brexit, the best thing is to say it will take a decade, i will invest in an ideal preparation. a decade of talking about brexit. a nation's hard spinning withjoy! about brexit. a nation's hard spinning with joy! it is dreadful but that length of time would be necessary to invest in the infrastructure, the capabilities, the staff, in order to manage a no—deal brexit without catastrophic impact. just in clarity on the leadership

process , just in clarity on the leadership process, which has existed since the mid— 60s in various forms, party members got involved after the catastrophic 1997 defeat for the tory party, but they rarely actually had a vote. on more than one occasion the mps have resolved it. they could do that again.|j occasion the mps have resolved it. they could do that again. i think that would be difficult. there would bea that would be difficult. there would be a lot of pressure on the party for a quick contest. but i think one of the things that went wrong last time, when leadsom pulled out and therefore theresa may was essentially crowned, it wasn'tjust that members lost their writes vote, but theresa may was not tested in a hustings type format and i think if theresa may had been tested in that way, she would still have beaten andrea leadsom, but the early election might not have happened. because vulnerabilities would have been showed up at a much earlier stage. i think there are some tory mps who like to shortcut the

process , mps who like to shortcut the process, but shortcutting the process, but shortcutting the process may mean we are not testing our potential pm properly. you mentioned this idea of an interim, and there are rumours going around the caretaker, but can you imagine, we are already at a stage of kind of national humiliation on the global stage, and what we say is there is so stage, and what we say is there is so little appetite for being prime minister at the moment of the biggest negotiation in peace time in the century and we are still sending ina the century and we are still sending in a caretaker. it sounds like a good title for a play. we will briefly touch on the metro, because we don't have much time for the ongoing shooting, a very striking image on the front of the metro, the strasbourg christmas market in shutdown tonight. it does have at the bottom, a great headline, not eu again, theresa may clutching jean—claude juncker, but let's end ona jean—claude juncker, but let's end

on a happier note. all right, it has brought a smile to her lips, and i suspect it might to both of you. so two nuns took £400,000 of school fees from a school and they gambled it in fees from a school and they gambled itina fees from a school and they gambled it in a dingy in vegas. it is like something from sister act. they lost everything. it turns out nuns are not good at gambling, big surprise. they are much better at the catechism. do you think they would have stood out, or were they plain clothes nuns? they probably didn't wear their habits. but it is interesting, when i first heard this story it said they weren't going to be prosecuted, which has an echo of the catholic church's indulgence of other crimes which have taken place. and presumably, one would hope, the money will be repaid in some form

and schools won't lose out. but it has the making for quite a good us crime series, hasn't it, or a film. we have had nuns on the run, we could have bad habits? very good. you should make the film. could have bad habits? very good. you should make the filmlj could have bad habits? very good. you should make the film. i think something along the lines of don't call us, we will call you, is being shouted out by my colleagues in the newsroom. that's it for the papers tonight. don't forget you can see the front pages of the papers online on the bbc news website. it is all there for you seven days a week at bbc.co.uk/papers, and if you miss the programme any evening, you can watch it later on bbc iplayer. a big thank you to my guests this evening, polly mackenzie and tim montgomerie, and from all of us, goodbye. inaudible. let me just update you on

the situation... what am i saying? you are watching bbc news. let's ta ke you are watching bbc news. let's take a look at the latest situation in strasbourg this evening. these

are the pictures we have from the christmas market in strasbourg. and that is... i'm afraid we don't have those pictures either. let's move on to another story this evening. scientists are warning that newly discovered melting in glaciers in east antarctica could cause significant rises in sea levels around the globe. ice streams into the ocean asked —— are speeding up. our science editor david shukman sent this report from the un climate conference taking place in poland. a great chunk of ice breaks into the ocean. antarctica holds so much frozen water that, if all of it melted, the level of the sea would rise by as much as 70 metres. that is why nasa and other teams are keeping a very close watch. back in 2004, ijoined a research

flight over west antarctica, where the glaciers, the great streams of ice, have for years been a big concern. now, nasa has studied satellite data and discovered that there is also melting in east antarctica. the glaciers here are showing signs of stirring. we've known for some time that parts of antarctica are losing ice into the ocean, causing sea level rise. nasa has now reported that another eight glaciers in a different part of antarctica are also losing ice. this is an effect of the oceans changing their temperature, and taking warm water to the antarctic ice sheet and causing it to melt. this matters for cities around the world. every extra bit of melting threatens the millions of people who live on coastlines. and that threat is now getting global attention. the future of the polar ice is being discussed here at the united nations climate conference in poland. the point of these talks is to try to prevent the increase in temperatures, to head off the rise of the oceans. and this new research shows why that matters.

i think it's a very intimidating and worrying piece of news. i think that it goes with the trend that climate change is becoming a more material issue that we have to respond to. we're not just looking at science into the future. we're thinking about issues that are affecting us now. and we have to be much more live and contemporary, and push harder with our decision—making. antarctica might seem very remote, but its ice has the potential to cause serious damage as the world gets warmer. i apologise for the confusion just before that report. there is nothing crashed in either downing street or strasbourg, some confusion there. i am going to go and have a lie down now, and i will leave you in the much capable hands of ben rich, and it seems appropriate after talking about antarctica that it is not going to get that goal. not going to get that cold, no, but it will get a

little bit chilly. a cold feel to the weather, especially when we start to pick up a keen eastaugh south—easterly winds. for the vast majority, turning colder over the next few days. western parts of the uk will see a little bit of rain. this is the satellite picture for the last 12 hours or so. cloud pushing in from the atlantic, a weather front, and normally pushing in from the atlantic, a weatherfront, and normally we might expect a weather front to push through and give us all some outbreaks of rain. but this one is running up against some resistance, this big area of high—pressure blocking its progress. so to go through the small hours of wednesday it is really just through the small hours of wednesday it is reallyjust these western areas which will see outbreaks of rain. the odd heavy burst, mind you. further outbreaks of cloud, the odd fog patch around and many places starting off dry. we will have this band of cloud and outbreaks of rain across western fringes and as the day wears on cloud will tend to break. or sunshine coming day wears on cloud will tend to break. orsunshine coming in day wears on cloud will tend to break. or sunshine coming in from the east, bringing in some dry abbott with its chilly air. the mildest conditions will be found

across western areas, 10 degrees in across western areas, 10 degrees in a fast and limit. as we go through wednesday night we should have more in the way of clear sky overhead. in the towns and cities, two or three degrees but in the countryside it might well get colder for a touch of frost to take us into thursday morning. anotherfrontal frost to take us into thursday morning. another frontal system trying to push in from the atlantic, high pressure blocking its progress. the winds around the high—pressure move ina the winds around the high—pressure move in a clockwise direction and they will be quite brisk during thursday. so not only will the air be cold, a strong wind exacerbating that chilly field and the fronts in the west not making much progress. some fronts in the choral and northern ireland and that is about it. elsewhere some spells of sunshine, showers for eastern coastal areas, you will notice the strength of the wind. if you put a thermometer outside it will save between and eight degrees but if you add on the strength of the wind by thursday it will feel more like this, sub zero if you are spending your day in the channel islands,

freezing in norwich and birmingham. on friday, the temperature is looking low but the wind will not be a strong, so it will not feel as bitingly cold by this stage. on saturday, more of a change. we will see some rain spreading in from the west as these frontal systems start to make some progress. some very wet weather to come in places on saturday, windy weather, and over high ground in the north there is the potential for some snow. high ground in the north there is the potentialfor some snow. quite high ground in the north there is the potential for some snow. quite a lot going on, we will keep you up—to—date, but from me, for now, it is good night. this is bbc news. i'm babita sharma with a bbc world news special programme on the attack in strasbourg. lockdown in the french city of strasbourg after a gunman opens fire near a busy christmas market. at least two people are reported dead — several others injured. one eyewitness overlooking the scene filmed the immediate reaction

to the attack. what happened was i heard two big noises but i thought they were firecrackers. i turned the corner andi firecrackers. i turned the corner and i saw one person on the ground with a wound. this is the scene live in strasbourg where police