a challenge to the prime minister as conservative mps trigger a vote of confidence in her leadership. theresa may says she'll fight with everything she's got to keep herjob. sir graham brady has confirmed he has received 48 letters from conservative mps so there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i have got. at least 48 tory mps sent letters of no confidence required to trigger a ballot. the vote will take place tonight. a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm and we will count as soon as we can provide a result as soon as we can after that. welcome to westminster, where theresa may has pledged

to fight for her leadership "with everything she's got" after conservative backbenchers triggered a vote of confidence in her. she will face a ballot of tory mps that will take place this evening. the challenge to her premiership was triggered after dozens of backbenchers wrote to the party saying they had lost faith in her. speaking in downing street, theresa may warned changing leader threatened to delay or even stop brexit and could put the country's future at risk. our political correspondent, iain watson, has our first report on another dramatic day in westminster and a warning it contains some flash photography. the first clue that it really was going to be business as usual in downing street. —— was not. a lot was going on under the cover of darkness. the chief whipjulian smith, who is supposed to know if the prime minister has enough support to carry on, left number ten late last night and i spotted him again very early this morning. soon after, we confirmed that the prime minister was facing a vote of no—confidence.

after dawn broke, the podium appeared. there would be a prime ministerial statement, but definitely not a resignation. and when theresa may emerged, her message to her own mps was defiant. there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. a change of leadership in the conservative party now would put our country's future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone. i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister and i stand ready to finish thejob. but the trouble is, some people want to finish her political career. watching was owen paterson, one of the mps who signed a letter of no—confidence, he said the so—called backstop to avoid a hard border in ireland, was unacceptable. her deal is absolutely appalling. we don't leave the customs union.

i was in washington recently, we won't be able to do trade deals and the backstop is completely unacceptable and it is quite unnecessary. and some of her critics point out that under the conservative party rules, if mps don't dislodge her today, they are stuck with her beyond brexit. today was inevitable. i put my letter of no—confidence in back injuly and it is disappointing we are here, but we have to deal with it. colleagues have got to understand when they vote tonight, if the prime minister survives, she has 12 months where she can't be challenged. so there are many, many reasons, including public trust, as to why this vote of confidence is necessary. the downing street strategy is to get as many supportive voices in front of the cameras as possible before tonight's vote. the prime minister is the right person to take us forward and we need to give her our full support. all this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying

to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the british people or the british economy. and her predecessor treated his support, saying that any leadership contest would be a distraction. downing street will be arguing that there already consequences from this challenge to the prime minister at a time when she should be negotiating with european partners. she has had to cancel a cabinet meeting today and a meeting with her irish counterpart leo varadkar. a crucial meeting, perhaps, to try and get the reassurance some of her own mps want over the issue of the irish backstop or how to avoid a hard border on the island of ireland. questions to the prime minister... one thing in her schedule that wasn't cancelled was prime minister's questions. she had sidestepped a vote on her deal this week butjeremy corbyn urged her to give mps say.

the time for dithering and delay by this government is over. the prime minister has negotiated her deal, she has told us it is the best and only deal available. there can be no more excuses, no more running away. put it before parliament and let's have the vote. he should be honest with people. he should be honest with people about his position. he couldn't care less about brexit. what he wants to do is bring down the government, create uncertainty, sew division and crash our economy. the biggest threat to people and this country isn't leaving the eu, it is a corbyn government. and the snp went further in their criticisms of the prime minister. the tory party is in chaos. the prime minister is a disgrace with her actions. the reality is that people across scotland and the uk are seeing this today. prime minister, take responsibility, do the right thing, resign. after pmqs, theresa may's day is likely to get worse because,

at 5pm, she effectively reapplies for her ownjob, talking to mps in what is called the backbench 1922 committee. at 6pm, they vote on her future in a secret ballot. if more than half of the parliamentary party, 158 mps, vote against, she will have to step aside and the leadership vote begins. the prime minister's argument is that a change of leader could take so long, brexit may have to be postponed. but today, she had to postpone her own entry into parliament when the gates didn't open. some of her mps want her kept out of office permanently. so all eyes will be on that confidence vote tonight which takes place between 6pm and 8pm. 315 conservative mps will decide the prime minister's future. so, what does theresa may need to do to win tonight's vote among her mps? the prime minister needs more than half of the votes of tory mps to win — that's 158 votes if they all vote.

if she does win, she cannot be challenged in this way for another year. but if she loses, then what happens? there would be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand but she would remain as prime minister until a replacement is announced. tory mps then choose two candidates — via a series of ballots — to put forward to a vote of ordinary party members around the country. the candidates would be expected to take part in debates before the final voting deadline. if there's only one candidate, then that person becomes the new conservative leader — with no need for a vote from members. the winner of any tory leadership contest would also be expected to become the new prime minister. but there is a worry that this entire process could take weeks — leaving the brexit process even more uncertain. a leadership contest could delay the house of commons‘ vote on the withdrawal bill even further — potentially putting the brexit deadline of 29th march in jeopardy. in a moment we'll speak to our europe correspondent, kevin connolly in brussels, to gauge reaction there. but first, our assistant political editor, vicky young, is in parliament.

it is all about the numbers once again. as for public declarations, but bbc has calculator chi has enough public declarations from mps to win the vote this evening that it isa to win the vote this evening that it is a secret ballot and they may not do the same thing in private as they are saying publicly. the most significant thing to happen today is the briefing after prime minister's questions were conservative party spokesman talked about tonight's vote and said theresa may does not believe the vote today is about who leads the party into the next general election. it is whether to change the party leader. that is highly significant because it suggests to me that theresa may feels she may have to make a pledge to mps that she will not lead them into the next general election in order to get their support. how

specific she is about that when she addresses backbenchers at 5pm before the vote will be very interesting. will she be pushed by them to give a date for her departure? if she does, it raises all sorts of issues because when prime minister ‘s say they will stand down it makes it much more difficult to have authority over the party. the second point is, even if she wins tonight but where does it leave her brexit deal? that is what this is about. does it change the parliamentary arithmetic? it does not. does it make to get about through parliament? no, it does not. iam not sure how it helps in the longer term. what about the mood? are those voting for her doing out of a sense of affection? no, that has always been a problem for her. there was an unexpected decision to call a general election and she lost the

party their majority. many simply have not forgiven herfor party their majority. many simply have not forgiven her for that. something had taking them into another election would be catastrophic. they do not feel for whatever reason a lot of them would say her determination, hard work and diligence is one thing but the idea that she is the frontwoman for the party going ahead into an election and selling of vision after brexit, they do not see it. a lot of today is about that. they think the timing is about that. they think the timing is terrible and it looks terrible to voters who are thinking we are in the middle of a crucial negotiation and they are deciding to turn in on themselves. it is no good for the unity of the party. this is adding to hostility between different factions in the party with the chancellor is saying that the people who are driving this are extremists. pretty tough stuff. with me isjoeyjones — former spokesperson for theresa may.

ijust want i just want to pick up ijust want to pick up on what i just want to pick up on what the key was suggesting from downing street, their line that theresa may will not fight the next election as tory leader. what do you make of that? most of us would assume, most conservative mps would have felt she is very unlikely to have the opportunity to be allowed by her party to be the contender at the next general election. she has done interviews over the past few months when she intimated she might like to press on. ultimately it is giving a bit of ground and it will win a few more people over to her and it is basically about allowing her to fight another day. let's talk about the numbers tonight. if she wins, even by one vote can you get the sense she will regard that as victory and plough on. what does it do to her authority and the numbers are low? on the face of it there are two possible results, a win and a loss. if there is a loss she is out.

there are a spectrum of different types of wins. there is resounding victory which would improve further her position. what number would she be looking at? that would mean you are basically getting your 48 and pretty much no one else joining the crew. then i think there is a number... initially this morning i felt as if the number was going to be about 100 but now a bit lower. there is a bit of fizzle going out of it. a bit of momentum running away at the prime minister for once. more than 100 voting against, that is an ugly win and it would lead her ina is an ugly win and it would lead her in a situation where, when she comes back with her new deal, refreshed and revived to lies from the european council meeting at the end of the week or whenever the vote happens, and act gets voted down because it will get voted down based on any projection at the moment, the

conservative party would be left with the worst of all worlds, a bullet—proof prime minister under the rules, she cannot be touched for a yearand one the rules, she cannot be touched for a year and one whose authority was shot to pieces. would she personally feel she has put this away, she has put this threat which will always be there, people was muttering about sending letters, she has dealt with it? she has been hanging by a thread for so long. today it was noteworthy that it -- for so long. today it was noteworthy that it —— that a lot of her most vocal opponents were looking quiet. there is a whole lot going on behind—the—scenes she and the whips will be talking to a lot of people, trying to win them round and bluntly some of them will not tell the truth. some of them or not the being honest. it is not quite like a fifa election. a lot of people will be going out there and maybe they might

be standing in front of you in the minutes and hours ahead, saying she has their full minutes and hours ahead, saying she has theirfull support minutes and hours ahead, saying she has their full support and then going into the privacy of the booths this afternoon and having second thoughts perhaps. all of that sort of thing. she and her closest advisers know it is all in the balance. today at pmqs, up in the parliamentary gallery, her husband when he has never turned up at prime minister's questions to watch her before. that is the most noteworthy thing of pmqs. he knows and she knows it might be the last one. language is very important. what to make of the wisdom of philip hammond ‘s this morning suggesting this is the moment to out the extremists, the moment to out the extremists, the brexiteers? that is inflammatory language which might rebound on him and the prime minister he is endeavouring to support. it is ill—advised and a bit dangerous. people aren't generally searching

their consciences. for them to feel as if they were to go one way against the prime minister for what they would view as perfectly sincere reasons with the interests of the party and the country and no minds and yet be labelled as extremists, that might get their backs up, get their hackles up in a way i'm sure their hackles up in a way i'm sure the chancellor would not have intended. michael gove said earlier this is the moment we can put it to bed and get on with the business. the irony sort of does it. anyone you talk to around here would probably i roll as well. where are we at the moment? i think we are going to be deep in a mass for the next few months. i cannot see how this can result in theresa may's authority being sufficiently entrenched she can bring a deal back to the commons and win. i still think that is going nowhere and she has run out of road on that particular deal. i anticipate that at some point it is possible the

whole train set will have to be handed over to somebody else to have a go. all of these people shouting from the sidelines who are saying there is another route, there is another plan, we could do better than you, i suspect one of them may one day get what they are wishing for. there is only one name that springs to mind on that basis and thatis springs to mind on that basis and that is boris johnson. springs to mind on that basis and that is boris johnson. he is first in mind but there are a lot of people. at the weekend i was a whole beauty contest going on, a bunch of senior cabinet ministers who are going out. name some names. at the weekend you saw sajid javid, he is writing today in the spectator. there are all sorts of people who are making sure that, as conservative mps consider all might consider a next step, let's not get

too far ahead of ourselves, we will know a result at nine o'clock but if it goes awry for the prime minister, as they consider a next step, they are front in line. another remarkable day here in westminster. nowhere will they be watching events more closely than in brussels. let's go to our correspondent who is there now. they are going to be clustered around the television, aren't they? it is watched with enormous interested. a lot of people know british politics very well. they feel they have to if they are going to understand how brexit works. it is seen as above will bring an extraordinary moment of course. there is no doubt that the theatre of british politics, the adversarial nature of it is seen as fascinating here. institutionally things are a bit more dial. you are not going to get the president of the european commission coming out and saying we

wa nt to commission coming out and saying we want to reason me to stay in british politics if warm words from the european commission would help you in an attempt to stay leader of the british tory party. they would say the deal that has been arranged so far, the celebrated withdrawal agreement, the declaration on future relations for that is not an agreement with theresa may personally, it is an agreement with the british government because the cabinet signed off on it. they would certainly deploy the legal argument that nothing changes if the legionaries replaced. the other point to make of course is this is a grouping of 28 democracies, soon—to—be 27 and leaders come and go. whoever turns up as prime minister of the united kingdom will simply be prime minister of the united kingdom. word theresa may to lose, it is assumed here she will still come tomorrow is kind of a ca reta ker still come tomorrow is kind of a caretaker prime minister. in that sense she will still be in office or

there with diminished authority. it is seen as an interesting moment here. the british idea that everything will change if you have a different leader, a different tone, a different strategy, that is not accepted here. they say it is a complex negotiation which has involved 28 governments. changing the leader of one of those governments, even if it is the one at the centre of the whole business will not change as much that some british mps might care to think. speaking to my colleague andrew neil, the international trade secretary — liam fox — said earlier that the prime minister's deal might not get the support of cabinet, if changes are not made to the backstop arrangement. i think it is very difficult to support the deal we do not get changes to the backstop. i do not think it will get through. i am not sure the cabinet will agree for it to be put through to the house of commons. why is downing street calling grant shapps and telling him

about progress on the backstop and not the trade secretary? we were due to have a cabinet meeting today which has been put off because we are in the middle of a confidence vote. would other cabinet ministers, if there were not clarification on the backstop, would they not vote for it either? this is a process the prime minister is in. having listened to what the house of commons on the conservative party has said, trying to change the changes with european partners we have seen an interruption of the process. i think people out there party supporters and people in the country would be saying why oh why would the tory party plunge itself a confidence vote on the prime minister when this vote is in the national interests and the party's interests ? with me is the amber rudd mp — secretary of state for work and pensions.

tory mps it is said putting party in front of the country. i am sympathetic to the view that parliament does not look like it is getting on with what we should be doing, which is governing and delivering on the eu referendum and we have an ambitious domestic agenda led by the prime minister. people look at something, what are they doing? they are thinking about changing leader at a time of already high levels of uncertainty because we are in the middle of concluding the brexit negotiations. i am sympathetic to that view. as soon as we can stop it by making sure the prime minister is reinforced in her place, we can get on with what the country place, we can get on with what the cou ntry wa nts place, we can get on with what the country wants us to do, which is government. do we agree with philip hammond and saying this is the moment to flush out the extremists? —— do you agree? they are notjust

entering the headlines, this is a decade old problem. it has been a problem for many years. it is much more evident, the amount of differentiation there is in the party about what kind of brexit we want. the cabinet wants to back the prime minister's deal as do the majority of conservative mps. a group of them do not and they are the ones who have led on starting this whole leadership fight today. if she leads by one vote per day still have any authority? she does. if this happens and that happens, it has proven that has gone out of the window. we need the prime minister to win and go back to delivering what constituents want us to do for that there is something too gleeful about some of our colleagues today. —— want us to do and there is something. as soon as we get back to remembering that and delivering on

it the better. one looks at the prime minister over the last year with the election disaster where you depend on the dup to get a vote through the house of commons, to what happened on monday the last minute decision to pull the vote on the tuesday, hasn't she created a lot of this method for herself? inevitably it was going to be difficult. leaving the european union, the outcome of the referendum, was always going to be difficult, typical in trying to get one position in the party and one position in parliament and making sure we could negotiate that with the eu. there are so many moving parts. lotsa people underestimated how difficult it would be. i'm not really that surprised. -- lots of people. the real difficulty is that the prime minister has the deal at the prime minister has the deal at the eu says that is the deal and she had to pull it because she knew she would not get it through. she has done the right thing. she was trying

to adapt it and reassure colleagues who have concerns about the backstop and then i hope we can bring it back for a vote and win it. we have heard from jean—claude juncker and every major player, angela merkel, we cannot change this offer. you say adapt, i don't know what adapt means? the actual agreement cannot be reopened and that sounds com pletely be reopened and that sounds completely like the case because if you had to open it you might have to negotiate on other things, where we have a good outcome and confirmed in the agreement. what we will get i do not know. an addendum, a letter. many people think that is all very well but the backstop, if that is brought into play, suddenly all bets are off because those are the very agreements that once again those in the eu can say, we will chip away at that. the prime minister has agreed we are not reopening the actual agreement. we are trying to get clarification to reassure colleagues

who are concerned about the backstop. that will not satisfy i think some of my colleagues, some of the people who object to the backstop arrangement. i am hope she will have sufficient reassurance for the majority of my colleagues they can support it when it comes through. what those wanting to oppose it need to think about is, what else? there is no other legally binding document on the table to deliver on the referendum. the other question is, who else? your name p°p5 up question is, who else? your name pops up quite a lot. i am not engaging in that discussion. i'm here and i completely back the prime minister. it is ridiculous indulgence to think about a new leader at this time you're ready have enough volatility in the country because of these shenanigans. in the last few days some of your colleagues will be saying, i need to be ready if. the beauty parade has already begun. we have a prime minister who was

elected by the party and elected in the last general election. it would be ridiculous to try and change leader at this moment. we have volatility going on around brexit itself. to throwing tobacco leadership fight as well is a mistake. —— to throw into that a leadership fight. if the prime minister gets her agreement through and it is a big if, when should the prime minister go? we have always said it is up to the prime minister. is she has made that decision she can clarify whenever she wants. she is the prime minister and it will be up is the prime minister and it will be up to herto is the prime minister and it will be up to her to decide when she goes. how do you think she will play the meeting at five p. m. ? how do you think she will play the meeting at five p.m.? i hope how do you think she will play the meeting at five p.m. ? i hope she plays it as well as she played the statement this morning when she showed her passion for delivering for the country and her commitment on the referendum and her strength of feeling about the domestic agenda andi of feeling about the domestic agenda

and i hope we can go back to concentrating on the domestic agenda because that is what my constituents wa nt because that is what my constituents want me to do. listening to phone in programmes on the radio there is a lot of anger, there is a lot of fear about wary are generally but a lot of angry your party. why, when we are ata of angry your party. why, when we are at a moment of national crisis? it is self indulgence and many of your colleagues have used that phrase. in the words of lord heseltine is that when your party wa nts to heseltine is that when your party wants to change the song, get rid of the singer. i have heard that comment and it is on the mark. i hope today will be an example of an u nfortu nate messy hope today will be an example of an unfortunate messy incident where we can get on with supporting the prime minister and trying to put stability back into government which is what people want. in prime minister's questions today, watching from just above was the prime minister's husband. he does not normally do that. is there a sense it could be

her last? i think he is being supportive of her. we want to show her she has support. we are part of her she has support. we are part of her team. what is the risk, if she wins tonight but it is not healthy win, what does that do to the conservative party tomorrow? what to expect those who voted against it tonight to do? i hope they will feel chastened by the experience of losing and i hope they'll be out to think clearly about what we want to achieve. i come back to the core point when addressing their opposition to the prime minister or the withdrawal agreement. what else do they want to achieve? if they wa nt to do they want to achieve? if they want to leave the european union and most of these people are brexited who have been doing this for a long time, what other proposal do they have? i do not see anything. i do not want to put words into your mouth. shut up from now on? i would say to my esteemed colleagues, when

they lose tonight, they should consider coming back into the fold and supporting good government. you seem very confident about what will happen. i am. i think seem very confident about what will happen. i am. ithink the prime minister will win well tonight. thank you. plenty more to come from westminster. now, time for a look at the weather. so far this week it has been benign. things are set to turn colder. thursday and friday are looking chilly with frosty nights. unsettled as we go into the weekend. a little bit of rain in the west. low pressure a cross bit of rain in the west. low pressure across the north atlantic sending a few weather fronts our way bringing rain into the north west. in the east there is high pressure and fine and settled. this evening and fine and settled. this evening and overnight it stays largely dry. a few showers flirting with these two coastal parts of scotland and

england. generally speaking for most dry with variable cloud. where you get clear spells it will be colder temperatures getting close to freezing. on thursday high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. the low pressure will push against the area of low pressure. —— high—pressure. the wind will come in from the south—east and it will feel colder tomorrow. on the plus side it will be largely dry for most of the country. probably more sunshine around than what we have seen today. a few showers which could be wintry in the high ground. more cloud and spots of rain in the west for northern ireland. temperature wise around seven to 8 degrees. the strength of the wind which will be quite a feature will make it feel colder. you need to wrap up when you are heading up despite all the sunshine. on thursday night with

clear skies and the cold air mouse it will turn very cold. temperatures here above freezing across many central and western areas of the uk, it is going to be cold with the widespread frost. you start friday off on widespread frost. you start friday offona widespread frost. you start friday off on a cold note with frost around. a largely fine unsettled day was quite a bit of sunshine but still cold in the strong wind. all change on friday night. milder are trying to moving across the atlantic. there will be a transitional period with wet weather moving north eastwards. as it bumps into the cold air we are likely to see some snow. it will all turn back to rain but it will be wet and windy across parts of england and wales. some disruption from the snow on saturday morning, so stay tuned to the weather forecast. you're watching afternoon live on bbc news. our headlines: a challenge to the prime minister as conservative mps trigger a vote of confidence in her leadership.

theresa may says she'll fight with everything she's got to keep herjob. sir graham brady has confirmed that he has received 48 letters from conservative mps so there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. at least 48 tory mps sent letters of no confidence required to trigger a ballot. the vote will take place tonight. a ballot will be held between six and eight o'clock and we will count as soon as we can and provide a result as soon as we can after that. before that vote theresa may will address conservative mps at five o'clock she'll argue that a new prime minister would be faced with the choice of "delaying or even stopping brexit". that is the latest from westminster. sport now, here'sjohn watson. good afternoon.

sky are to end their backing of the british cycling team — team sky — leaving its future in doubt. their long standing ten year association will end in 2019 after a period of unprecedented success — winning six of the last seven tour de france titles. there have been controversies, with a parliamentary report concluding the team crossed an ethical line by using permitted drugs to enhance performace. team principle sir dave brailsford said "they're open minded about the potential of working with a new partner — chris froome said they plan to be here in 2020. liverpool and tottenham are into monday's draw for the last 16 of the champions league — both secred the results needed to reach the last 16 — spurs drawing one all in barcelona, while the reds beat napoli1—0 at anfield. i'm still full of adrenaline. i could fill it in bottles — bottles again. so this game was just amazing. it was outstanding, unbelievable. the boys played...

their whole heart on the pitch. i'm not sure of the right saying, but it's just — with each part of their body, they were in that game. i think they were fantastic. i think to celebrate our players inside, with the staff, with everyone, i think, from the club, was the first time that you feel something this special. the connection was amazing. now, we need to be clever in the way that we need to manage that energy that we create after tonight. it means four british sides have qualified including both manchester clubs who play their fianl group games later united play valenica later while city face hoffenheim, raheem sterling was named today as november's premier league player of the month. a draw at the etihad will be enough to secure top spot in group f. we are in the next stage, that is

important. we want to win the game, too, because we have every game and tried to win it. and to finish first, just for the fact, to finish first, just for the fact, to finish first, we never know. so it doesn't matter, finished first or second, the last 16 is grateful that we have an advantage in the second leg to play at home. but in general, in the next match there will be a draw, to be successful there. and england's men's hockey team have made it through to the semi—finals of the world cup. they beat reigning olympic champions argentina 3—2 in a thrilling match in india. with the scores level in the dieing seconds of the third quarter, this brilliant long—ball from barry middleton set up will calnan to put england in front. argentina then levelled in the fourth from a penalty corner. gonzalo peillat with his second goal of the match. but less than a minute later, england were back in front. harry martin sending them

through to their third world cup semifinal in a row. that's all the sport for now. thank you, john. welcome back to a bbc news special westminster on another dramatic day in parliament. in around four hours' time theresa may will face a vote confidence in her leadership. the ballot was triggered this morning when the threshold of 48 letters calling for a vote was reached. mrs may has warned that brexit will be delayed or even stopped if conservative mps fail to back her. so what can we expect later? mrs may will address the 1922 committee at 5 o'clock, in what will be her last chance to convince any undecided conservative mps to back her as leader. shortly after she finishes speaking, the ballot will be held — that's at some point between 6 and 8pm — with the result announced soon afterwards. to win, mrs may needs to secure 158 votes — half of her mps, plus one. if that happens she will be immune from a further challenge for a year. but if she loses there will be

a leadership contest and she will be barred from standing. well, senior members of the cabinet have been quick to throw their support behind the prime minister. the foreign secretaryjeremy hunt said she is the "best person to make sure we actually leave the eu on march the 29th". the international trade secretary liam fox said it was the wrong time for a leadership contest, saying the country expects stability and not damaging division. meanwhile the prominent brexiteerjacob rees—mogg, who was one of the first to submit a letter of no—confidence in the prime minister, said "the country needs a new leader" and that "it's time for mrs may to resign". the former prime minister david cameron has since urged conservative mps to back mrs may in the vote. coming up at 3:30, we'll bring you ask this — your chance to ask an expert any question you have on the upcoming confidence vote in theresa may. so please, send your questions in via text on 61124, email askthis@bbc.co.uk or tweet #bbcaskthis, and we'll get you the answers. with me is the labour

mp liz kendall. not your vote tonight, who do you wa nt to not your vote tonight, who do you want to win, they'll? the honest truth is, whether she wins or loses, it won't change the fundamentals, which is that there is no backing for the deal that she has negotiated within parliament. the fundament problem is this, if you want to protect jobs and problem is this, if you want to protectjobs and have no border in northern ireland, you need to stay in this and market and customs union. what the prime minister is proposing is that we give up our say over those rules that govern our lives. this deal isn't what people we re lives. this deal isn't what people were promised, whether she wins or loses tonight, those under medals don't change. r&b confusing the deal with our obsession with this

backstop? which both theresa may and the eu have said they hope isn't put into use. if she can get some clarification, which is what you trying to do, when that change the whole sense of what is on offer here? either you have to have a new treaty and relationship with europe that delivers everything in the backstop, in order to avoid a border in northern ireland, or you can have the backstop. that is the truth of it. if you don't want a hard border, you'd have to be in the single market and customs union. whichever way you cut the cake, the issue is the zen. that is why i think, most members of the public know we have this crunch moment on brexit and what do we do as a country, but what we are seeing is a tory party devouring itself over this, that is not the leadership that the country needs. it is a vote on conference for her and tory party tonight, do you have confidence in her as prime minister? why isn't your party

saying, it is now time for a vote of no—confidence in the prime minister? the reason she didn't bid the vote this week is she knew she would lose out. she is not going to get any major changes from brussels... i think it will be a matter of when, not if. we want to see a general election, but if we don't see that, our policy is very clear that we need to put it back to the people in a public vote and i think remain should be an option on the ballot paper. but when parties like the snp etc, four other parties will back the labour party if you put a vote of no—confidence in the prime minister, why doesjeremy corbyn seem to be shying away from this?m we will get a general election, which is the first thing we want to achieve, there will be a vote of no—confidence and jeremy corbyn has said that as a matter of when and not if. the country is looking... it feels a sense of crisis. they do.

what they want is an answer about brexit. that is what i want as well. my brexit. that is what i want as well. my view is that a public vote may be the only way out of this deadlock, because there is no majority in holland for any of the options. —— in parliament. what people were promised in the referendum is so different from we see now, the facts attained, it is a worse deal, and the uncertainty is going to go on forever. —— the facts have changed. soi forever. —— the facts have changed. so i think if we really want to have support for which ever happens, we need to have a public vote. the only way you think that can be done is to call for a general election then make a part of the labour manifesto? policies as if we want to —— if we can to get a general election, all options are on the table, including a public vote. how would that work? in order to get a general election, we would have to have a vote of no—confidence. the leader of our party has said it is a matter of

when, not if. i keep asking... you will have to ask him that. don't you all discuss it? of course we do, but those are private matters. what i am most concerned about is what do we do on brexit? how do we move the country forward ? my do on brexit? how do we move the country forward? my view is that because what we have been promised is different to what people were promised a referendum, if we want to have general public support from a reconnect as a country, we need to go back to top it for ever. some of what would you say to severe right now saying —— what would you say to severe right now saying -- what would you say to someone who is watching you now with all this going on, and you are arguing is that we are ready to build the road from under their...” am notarguing build the road from under their...” am not arguing that at all. i am saying that if what we want to do is set at a future for the country that protects jobs, doesn't have a border in northern ireland, that gives this proud country a say over the world

that govern our lives. but doesn't deliver it. my view is that we have to put harry deal and the option for remain back to the public, because the facts have changed so much. my view is that this is such a crisis for the country. we have to think about what is in the national interest. my view is that giving that say back to the people is the only way we will get out of this brexit deadlock. you only said that remain, but there is still a chance... that should still be an option. what is the country is a split then after that as it is now? i don't think any of the options before us are at risk free. what the prime minister is proposing and what the hardline brexiteers want i think would damage our economy. i understand only too well how apprehensive people are that another vote could be divisive. i have been apprehensive about that. ultimately, if what we will have the future of our country is so different from

what was proposed in the referendum, we have a duty to put it back to the people to see if they are ok with it. i don't think that is risk—free, but i think that a worse risk for our country is getting ourselves off from our neighbours, trying to go it alone, when i think that would be terrible for our economy and jobs. it is only by working with other countries that we will deal with the massive challenges we face. that is why i am in favourfor massive challenges we face. that is why i am in favour for putting it back to the public. thank you for joining us. what do people outside westminster think of the attempt to topple theresa may? voters in worcester elected a conservative mp last year and voted leave in the eu referendum. our reporter kathryn stanczyszyn has visited the town to gauge their view of the prime minister. christmas shopping in full swing in worcester. it is one of the few topics that many people are talking about. the other, the fact that the prime minister is facing a rebellion. she

needs supporting, if people don't like it, that is what it is. she was forced into the job through david cameron. give her a forced into the job through david cameron. give hera chance. forced into the job through david cameron. give her a chance. who else will do a betterjob? i don't know is the answer. i don't think some of the potential new leaders who will put themselves forward for the conservative party, they certainly wouldn't get my vote. i won't name names. . . wouldn't get my vote. i won't name names... rather tall blonde gentleman. this lady has been a jewel in the city for 25 years and famously made jewellery for margaret thatcher but, as a staunch conservative, says this is not the time to change leaders. i think they should have supported her more from the start then maybe doing it for their own good, rather than supporting her in what she has already negotiated. and to come up with this at the last minute and not give her support, ifind it very weak and we need to stick together and get on with it.

the tory majority was cut here in worcester at the last general election, but it remains a conservative city ina conservative county. many people i have spoken to today remain loyal to the prime minister but, for others, it is a welcome opportunity for a shake—up. and some people on this ancient street think this is long overdue. i think it is time to get rid of the whole conservative party. they are showing they are not together. if someone thinks they can do better, that is what it will be but it is obviously going to miss the deadline now, we are not going to be ready for next march, so it is a bit of a mess all round. i think the british people deserve better than that. there are still those on the streets here and across the country who say they just want to get on with brexit. before that, though, could they be about to witness the death of a career? when it is jittery on the political

front, it is jittery on the front as well. maryam moshiri is back in our newsroom studio with the business news the markets are closely watching the goings on in westminster. the pound has recovered some of its recent losses as the latest indications are that theresa may has enough support to win tonight's no confidence vote. investors also very focussed on the latest twist in the trade row between china and the us, after conciliatory comments from president trump. that have a look at the markets with jane foley is from rabobank. talk to me about it and, as the camel has continued, the pound has been a barometer of how the markets feel about what is going on with the withdrawal agreement. today, we have seen a recovery, that tells us what exactly? the recovery has come this afternoon, this is because of a few headlines suggesting that theresa may may just win headlines suggesting that theresa may mayjust win that headlines suggesting that theresa may may just win that vote headlines suggesting that theresa may mayjust win that vote of no confidence later this evening. if

thatis confidence later this evening. if that is the case, it removes one layer of uncertainty for the markets. sterling is still weakened, and it is very vulnerable. the reason for that is because there is still a huge much of uncertainty about brexit and what brexit we might have. at least if theresa may remains as the prime minister, there is one less thing for the pound and sterling investors to worry about. why do investors worry so much about these goings on? what difference would it make to the pound? of about a sterling investor being an ordinary investor, somebody who is thinking about setting up another factory or shop, or making an investment in a business. all of theseis investment in a business. all of these is this people have to make decisions based on the outlook for the economy, also the cost if they are going to bring in goods from overseas, the cost is determined by the pound. so the ideas are worries of all of these business people are

all collated, and they come together in the value of sterling. that is the main driver of the value of exchange rate. business leaders up and down the country have been saying today that they just want some sort of certainty. they are not happy about this no—confidence vote. what are investors saying where you are about what is happening?m what are investors saying where you are about what is happening? it is the same thing, investors and the clients i might speak to at this bank are extremely concerned and have been for the last couple of yea rs. have been for the last couple of years. this is about the degree of political uncertainty in the uk. they want to provide good and services for the people in the uk. it is difficult for them to make investment decisions, not knowing how much the pound will move, what the impact of brexit will do to economic growth. so really come irrespective of whether you're not on the leave remain side, the majority of businesses just want clarity. even if it is something they don't agree with, and if they can work with it if they do know what it is. clarity is something which we are hugely missing in the

uk right now. let this into perspective, brexit is a uk issue, the markets are around the world. the markets really at the moment today are looking at other aspects that are important them. for example, the trade row between the us and china. in many ways, that has taken a centrestage as to why the ftse100 taken a centrestage as to why the ftse 100 for example is doing better today. a lot of companies in the big landmark in our international facing countries anywhere, ibec? absolutely. the ftse100 is international, and if you look at may be the prime factor that is influencing all markets right now, because it is not brexit, it is the us- because it is not brexit, it is the us— china trade war. that is something which has been slowing growth in china, the world's second—largest economy. this is also had an impact on market expectations for global growth in 2019 and beyond. if trade wars continue, they remain at very tense levels, that

will have a dental mental impact on world growth. that has an impact on all large companies and it will all peter threw into small companies as well. so it is a huge event, any phone that they could be any efforts between china and the us is therefore greeted with optimism by therefore greeted with optimism by the market and you see that stock markets reflect that. thank you for your point of view, jane. let's have a look at the market figures now. the london market is atjust over a 1%. that is reflecting the considered retail of president trump overturned at harris. the pound has recovered against both the euro and the dollar again. that is off the back of rumours or ideas at the event tonight could be won by the prime minister. only, that is the ftse all, that is all ftse companies. i will have more market data throughout the afternoon on this

busy afternoon here on bbc news. back to you, simon. it isa it is a big day in westminster in what has been a week as a very big days. at 5pm, theresa may will be putting her case in front of her colleagues, tory mps on the 1922 committee. with me is conservative mp, bernard jenkin. i will ask you how you will vote, but i think i know. i will relu cta ntly but i think i know. i will reluctantly vote for a new conservative leader. you say relu cta ntly, conservative leader. you say reluctantly, this is the moment you have been waiting for, isn't it?” have been waiting for, isn't it?” have been waiting for, isn't it?” have been agonising over this, i was properly one of the last to put in a letter just yesterday. i properly one of the last to put in a letterjust yesterday. i am very sorry it has come to this i did my best to work with theresa may, bringing your it people into downing street for dialogue and discussion, and we thought we had a very good relationship, that was until the

chequers cabinet when we felt we we re chequers cabinet when we felt we were thrown out of the discussions. -- erg were thrown out of the discussions. —— erg people into downing street. the problem now is that she has finished up with a deal that commands so little support in the house of commons, and the dup are so hostile to it that she is losing her authority to govern. it is not a problem in the conservative party, it isa problem in the conservative party, it is a problem in the house of commons. how does this vote result anything then? we need a new leader who is enthusiastic about brexit instead of regarding it as a damage limitation exercise. we need a new prime minister... and do what then? redraw the whole thing? there is an alternative plan, which we have been promoting for some time, which is to go back to what the ee was offering —— the go back to what the ee was offering -- the eu go back to what the ee was offering —— the eu was offering, a canada plus plus basque region. it means result in the northern irish border ina result in the northern irish border in a different way, and we have had

discussions with this. the choice will be with the eu, do they want to do something sensible and collaborative, or do they want to throw us out on the 29th of march without a withdrawal agreement? it is not an option for us to say, ok, we we re is not an option for us to say, ok, we were given to the european union and the british people voted to leave, they are defeated. this would bea leave, they are defeated. this would be a disaster for the country. leave, they are defeated. this would be a disaster for the countrym leave, they are defeated. this would be a disaster for the country. it is the use of language, and i could pick up on a regular, phrases like throwing us out... that is not what is happening, we voted to leave, thatis is happening, we voted to leave, that is the date. what i would expect them to do is come if it is clear we will leave without a formal withdrawal agreement, there would be corporation. they don't want to advertise this now, because they wa nt advertise this now, because they want us to sign this deal that is so favourable to the eu. but when becomes clear that the house of commons will not approve that deal, and that we may well leave without a withdrawal agreement, then i think we will see more population and cooperation. you said you wrote a

letter yesterday. what changed for you? and with the realisation after the time that she pulled the vote, and took part in the debate yesterday. i sat through the house of commons and listened to what was said. just listening to that debate, it made you realise that she no longer command the respect of the house of commons. that is the linchpin of our constitution. the government cannot govern unless it has the confidence of the house of commons. my committee produced a report about this on tuesday morning. nothing has changed in that respect, with the fixed term apartment act. if she can't command the confidence... fixed term parliament act. if she wins the vote tonight, the problem is still there in the house of commons. her and still not last very long. she will

be free for another year if she wins the vote even buy one. that means she can go back to the meeting in ireland to continue the mission to get some sort of clarity that will satisfy, possibly not you, but others who are saying, we are worried about the backstop orangemen at the moment. but doesn't have a majority in the house of commons. all the mps could go to her tonight, and she still doesn't have a majority. she has worked with other parties. we were working with the dup, they have almost withdrawn their support. in the end, if she wins the vote, it could bring forward the possibility of a vote of no—confidence in the house of commons in this government,... or admits toa commons in this government,... or admits to a no deal and a departure on the 29th of march with no times? i don't fear that. there will be some administrative inconvenience, there will be economic consequences we have to do it in the short term,

but we will have a large sum of money we would have spent on the exit deal to spend on these problems. if the eu is foolish enough to impose harris on our trade, we will collect another £13 billion a year in tariff income. —— imposed tariffs. there will be a short term hiatus, have no doubt about that. i have got no illusions that leaving without a withdrawal beam it is by no means ideal. but the short—term risks are far less than the long—term risks of agreeing to her deal. briefly, finally, talking about the use of land which, what did you make of philip hammond this morning saying this is the vote where we can find extremists, talking about you and your colleagues. flush them out, was the phrase. it is odd that 5296 of the country phrase. it is odd that 5296 of the cou ntry voted phrase. it is odd that 5296 of the country voted leave and those of us, we put in our manifesto that we should leave the customs union, that we should leave this on the market, to ta ke

we should leave this on the market, to take back control of our laws, and now we are faced with an agreement which doesn't deliver those things. we are called the extremists then. i thought that once we had won the referendum, we would be accepted as the mainstream. the problem we've got is that even though some 400 constituencies voted leave, so many of their members of parliament who said they represent them are not actually supporting leave, they are trying to frustrate the uk leaving the eu. that has a very good consequence for democracy if the politicians than ever the people. thank you forjoining us. more to come here from later on. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav danaos we have a massive and the cold air will wind out in the next couple of days. that there will be rain to the very far west. this is going to

bring unsettled conditions at the weekend. it will be dry and chilly as we had three tonight, maybe some showers as we had three eastern coastal areas, and a few spot of rain from northern ireland. clear skies tonight and temperatures down to freezing. a touch of frost likely to freezing. a touch of frost likely to start thursday morning. it'll be another largely dry day, thanks to the area of high pressure. a few showers across the eastern areas, and there should be thicker cloud and there should be thicker cloud and rain across the weather front in northern ireland. a strong east, south—east wind, so it was a much colder with the wind. friday is looking similar, chilly, but largely dry. it will then turn more u nsettled dry. it will then turn more unsettled into the weekend with a speu unsettled into the weekend with a spell of rain and also still slow. —— also kill snow. a challenge to the prime minister as conservative mps trigger a vote

of confidence in her leadership. theresa may says she'll fight with everything she's got to keep herjob. sir graham brady has confirmed he has received 48 letters from conservative mps so there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i have got. 15% of the parliamentary party sent the letters of no confidence required to trigger a ballot. the vote will take place tonight. a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm and we will count as soon as we can provide a result as soon as we can after that. before the vote, theresa may will address the members of her party who will then decide herfuture. and we're in worcester — a town that voted to leave — to find out what people there make of the prime minister's predicament. welcome to westminster,

where theresa may has pledged to fight for her leadership "with everything she's got" after conservative backbenchers triggered a vote of confidence in her. she will face a ballot of tory mps that starts in three hours' time. the challenge to her premiership was triggered after dozens of backbenchers wrote to the party saying they had lost faith in her. speaking in downing street, theresa may warned changing leader threatened to delay or even stop brexit and could put the country's future at risk. our political correspondent, iain watson, has our first report on another dramatic day in westminster and a warning it contains some flash photography. the first clue that it really was not going to be business as usual in downing street. a lot was going on under

the cover of darkness. the chief whipjulian smith, who is supposed to know if the prime minister has enough support to carry on, left number ten late last night and i spotted him again very early this morning. soon after, we confirmed that the prime minister was facing a vote of no—confidence. after dawn broke, the podium appeared. there would be a prime ministerial statement, but definitely not a resignation. and when theresa may emerged, her message to her own mps was defiant. there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. a change of leadership in the conservative party now would put our country's future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone. i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister and i stand ready to finish the job. but the trouble is, some people want to finish her political career.

watching was owen paterson, one of the mps who signed a letter of no—confidence, he said the so—called backstop to avoid a hard border in ireland, was unacceptable. her deal is absolutely appalling. we don't leave the customs union. i was in washington recently, we won't be able to do trade deals and the backstop is completely unacceptable and it is quite unnecessary. and some of her critics point out that under the conservative party rules, if mps don't dislodge her today, they are stuck with her beyond brexit. today was inevitable. i put my letter of no—confidence in back injuly and it is disappointing we are here, but we have to deal with it. colleagues have got to understand when they vote tonight, if the prime minister survives, she has 12 months where she can't be challenged. so there are many, many reasons, including public trust, as to why this vote of confidence is necessary. the downing street strategy is to get as many supportive voices in front of the cameras as possible

before tonight's vote. the prime minister is the right person to take us forward and we need to give her our full support. all this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the british people or the british economy. and her predecessor treated his support, saying that any leadership contest would be a distraction. —— tweeted. downing street will be arguing that there already consequences from this challenge to the prime minister at a time when she should be negotiating with european partners. she has had to cancel a cabinet meeting today and a meeting with her irish counterpart leo va radkar. a crucial meeting, perhaps, to try and get the reassurance some of her own mps want over the issue of the irish backstop or how to avoid a hard border on the island of ireland. questions to the prime minister... one thing in her schedule that wasn't cancelled was

prime minister's questions. she had sidestepped a vote on her deal this week butjeremy corbyn urged her to give mps say. the time for dithering and delay by this government is over. the prime minister has negotiated her deal, she has told us it is the best and only deal available. there can be no more excuses, no more running away. put it before parliament and let's have the vote. he should be honest with people. he should be honest with people about his position. he couldn't care less about brexit. what he wants to do is bring down the government, create uncertainty, sew division and crash our economy. the biggest threat to people and this country isn't leaving the eu, it is a corbyn government. and the snp went further in their criticisms of the prime minister. the tory party is in chaos. the prime minister is a disgrace with her actions. the reality is that people

across scotland and the uk are seeing this today. prime minister, take responsibility, do the right thing, resign. after pmqs, theresa may's day is likely to get worse because, at 5pm, she effectively reapplies for her ownjob, talking to mps in what is called the backbench1922 committee. at 6pm, they vote on her future in a secret ballot. if more than half of the parliamentary party, 158 mps, vote against, she will have to step aside and the leadership vote begins. the prime minister's argument is that a change of leader could take so long, brexit may have to be postponed. but today, she had to postpone her own entry into parliament when the gates didn't open. some of her mps want her kept out of office permanently. so, all eyes will be on the confidence vote tonight, which takes place between 6pm and 8pm. 315 conservative mps will decide the prime minister's future. so, what does theresa may need to do

to win tonight's vote among her mps? the prime minister needs the backing of a majority of tory mps to win. if all of them vote, that means she would need 158 votes. if she does win, she cannot be challenged in this way for another year. but if she loses, then what happens? there would be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand but she would remain as prime minister until a replacement is announced. tory mps then choose two candidates — via a series of ballots — to put forward to a vote of ordinary party members around the country. the candidates would be expected to take part in debates before the final voting deadline. if there's only one candidate, then that person becomes the new conservative leader — with no need for a vote from members. the winner of any tory leadership contest would also be expected to become the new prime minister. but there is a worry that this entire process could take weeks — leaving the brexit process even more uncertain. a leadership contest could delay the house of commons' vote on the withdrawal bill even further — potentially putting

the brexit deadline of 29th march in jeopardy. let's speak to our political correspondent ben wright, who is in central lobby. what is the feeling of how she might perform in this vote?” what is the feeling of how she might perform in this vote? i think the consensus among tory mps as it stands at the moment is that she will win it. everyone is asking how co mforta bly will win it. everyone is asking how comfortably theresa may will win it and how important the margin of victory might be. this be a tighter and more volatile vote than it might have been had it been held two weeks ago. the vote on the deal on monday has hardened some of the opposition to earth on the tory backbenches. overall the consensus is that she will win. the fundamental parameters

and challenges she faces will remain the same, the parliament is com pletely the same, the parliament is completely opposed to the deal she has on the table and she is trying to renegotiate in some form with various eu leaders. this morning trade secretary liam fox said he thought the cabinet wanted to see changes made to that deal. i think it is very difficult to support the deal if we do not get changes to the backstop. i do not think it will get through. i am not sure the cabinet will agree for it to be put through to the house of commons. why is downing street calling grant shapps and telling him about progress on the backstop and not the trade secretary? we were due to have a cabinet meeting today which has been put off because we are in the middle of a confidence vote. would other cabinet ministers, if there were not clarification on the backstop, would they not vote for it either? this is a process the prime minister is in. having listened to what the house of

commons and the conservative party has said, trying to change the changes with european partners we have seen an interruption of the process. i think people out there — party supporters and people in the country would be saying why oh why would the tory party plunge itself a confidence vote on the prime minister when this vote is in the national interests and the pa rty's interests? some interesting language flying around. it is a moment to flush out extremists, it has been said. the atmosphere in the party is poisonous. it has been bitterly divided over the question of europe for years. there is a sense particularly from some other former remainers who are looking forward to

the showdown with the hard—core brexiteers and like to see them decisively defeated because there is a feeling among a good chunk of the party it would give theresa may confidence to pivot away from them and tried to do something else and try and find another way through her brexit conundrum. i think it is in slum it is language and i do not think it will do any thing to heal the divisions here at all. another interesting thing, we are expecting the prime minister to talk to the 1922 committee, the backbench committee at five o'clock in a critical meeting. we expect her to be explicit that she has no intention of fighting a general election. that is a tactic to win over the waverers who may feel happy about her looking after brexit through to its conclusion but do not wa nt through to its conclusion but do not want her to fight another election. they will be told clearly that is not her plan and she will be off before the next general election.

back carries its own risks and one thinks of tony blair who said this will be my last. —— back carries its own risks. it effectively kneecaps the prime minister. however, that may well be what happens. i think the circumstances are so different it isa the circumstances are so different it is a government in the middle of an extraordinary political crisis. the immediate challenge and everybody knows it is there and it will be there tomorrow is how on earth to make brexit happen, if it is going to happen in three months' time. if she gets through today and the prime minister is still number 10 tomorrow she will be given that space to govern i think with this confidence vote behind her. long—term it is the sure—fire way to see your political authorities start to drain away. thank you very much. coming up at 3:30pn, we'll bring you ask this —

your chance to ask an expert any question you have on the upcoming confidence vote in theresa may. so please, send your questions in via text on 61124, e; mail askthis@bbc.co.uk or tweet hashtag bbc ask this, and we'll get you the answers. i spoke to the secretary of state for work and pensions, amber rudd a little earlier, she gave me her thoughts on how the prime minister will deal with her appearance before the 1922 committee at five o'clock this evening. i hope she plays it as well as she played the statement this morning outside number 10 when she really showed her passion for delivering for the country, herb commitment to delivering on a referendum and has strength of feeling about the domestic agenda. i hope we can get back to concentrating on the domestic agenda because that is what my constituents expect me to do. let's talk about your constituents. listening to phone in programmes on

the radio, there is a lot of anger and fear about where we are generally but a lot of anger at your party. why, when we are at a moment of national crisis? it is self indulgence and some of your own collea g u es indulgence and some of your own colleagues have used that phrase. in the words of lord heseltine, when your party wants to change the song may decide tojust your party wants to change the song may decide to just get rid of the singer. i have heard those comments and it is on the mark. the anger is justified and we need to put it behind us. that's hope today is an example of an unfortunate, messy incident and tried to put stability back into govern which is what people want. interesting in prime minister's questions today watching

from above was the husband of the prime minister. is there a if they want to leave the eu, and most people are the brexiteers who have been doing this for a long time, and what other proposal do they have? a negotiable propyl puzzle that the eu will engage with and will get through the house of commons. i don't see anything. and will get through the house of commons. i don't see anythingm they are putting up tonight, if they lose, shut up from now on?” they are putting up tonight, if they lose, shut up from now on? i would say that when they lose tonight, they should consider coming back into the fold, supporting the prime minister, and letting us get on. i've been speaking to our

correspondent kevin connolly in brussels to find out what politicians there think of the confidence vote and its potential impact on brexit. this is still seen as a pretty bewildering and extraordinary moment. there is no doubt the theatre of british politics, the adversarial nothing changes if the leader is

replaced, the other point to make is, this is a grouping of 28 democracies, soon—to—be 27, leaders do come and go, whoever turns up as prime minister of the uk will simply be the prime minister of the uk. were she to lose, it is assumed that she would still come in tomorrow as a caretaker prime minister. and she will still be in office, although with a diminished authority. it is seen as an interesting moment, but the british idea that everything will change if you have a different leader, a different tone or strategy, that is not accepted here. they say this is a complex negotiation, which has involved 28 governments, changing the leader of one of those governments, even if it

is the one at the centre of the business, this change as much as some british mps might care to think. i have just some british mps might care to think. i havejust had some british mps might care to think. i have just had a tweet sent to me, saying, can you please tell me what is going on with the government? and very few people at the moment in westminster have much ofa the moment in westminster have much of a clue. there has been a lot of reaction to the confidence vote on twitter. the home secretary sajid javid tweeted support for the prime former prime minister david cameron urged tory mps to back mrs may in the vote of confidence, tweeting: meanwhile, labour leaderjermy corbyn said: dup mp sammy wilson tweeted:

conservative brexiteer andrea jenkyns tweeted: and the former ukip leader, nigel farage has tweeted: what do people outside westminster think of the attempt

to topple theresa may? voters in worcester elected a conservative mp last year and voted leave in the eu referendum. our reporter is there. how do people express their view about the prime minister now? people have been pretty vocal in their views today in the beautiful city centre of worcester. it has been very busy as we had up towards christmas. many people here are telling me that whether they were remain or leave, they are concerned about the latest development, because they are buried that that will cause problems in the future. many people where uttering the refrain we have heard, wejust wa nt the refrain we have heard, wejust want this to be got on with. we just wa nt want this to be got on with. we just want brexit to happen. i am joined now by some shoppers today in worcester. and i ask whether you are

leave remain? remain. so you both voted remain. what do you make of the latest development of the vote of no—confidence? the latest development of the vote of no-confidence? it beggars belief however new one would think it is a good time to enter into such a thing. who will be the big white knight to come forward and say they can negotiate with europe and they have made it clear that they are not up have made it clear that they are not up from moving. so you think it is playing politics at the moment? at lily. i can see anything else but. not at this late stage that is what i keep hearing, that it is late to this. rafa let them get on with brexit. this is not going to happen —— this is not going to help get on that. we have christmas in between, it won't happen. you say that as

remain voters, do you not think this will end up in is not leaving the eu? it would be acted nice to think that even though we are remain voters, but democracy can be played out. i voters, but democracy can be played out. lam voters, but democracy can be played out. i am sure that if we did remain now, then there would be very much a lot of ill feeling from the people who did vote to leave. do you expect theresa may to still be prime minister tomorrow?” theresa may to still be prime minister tomorrow? i hope so, so she can carry on getting on with it. because otherwise, what will happen? when will it be done. brexit will be delayed. thank you forjoining us. what will happen? it is something that people keep asking and that none of us who know at the moment. we are hearing that around 170 mps have publicly backed the prime minister. she needs the figure of 158 to win the confidence later. but of course, we don't know at the

moment. you are right, wejust don't know. a lot of anger has been expressed by people just what is happening at westminster. this many describe as ofa westminster. this many describe as of a destruction of the ongoing crisis with the brexit‘s negotiations, and theresa may's battle on that. but what are people around the country thinking about what is going on? the conference that that is being held here tonight? and the mood of where we are? we have been asking people around the country. do you have confidence in theresa may? not at all, not in the slightest. i think she's done a horrible job, in fairness, i don't think anyone can do it, because i think it was based on a load of promises that may be why not well researched. yes, i have confidence in the way she's worked through this, she's pragmatic, she's not let anyone fluster her. yeah, i think she's trying to do herjob, and i think there's a lot of people clamouring for herjob. i don't think...

i can't see any others coming through that could take herjob, definitely not from labour. i do support her and i really do feel for her at the moment, it's a really difficultjob. i don't think she knows what she's doing. i know that no one really knows what is going on, but as a leader, i feel like she should have some idea, some direction. and i'm not getting that from her. i think she's trying very hard in extremely difficult circumstances. it is nice to see a powerful, confident woman in a big public place, and in charge, but maybe she needs to rethink her strategy. she does a sterling job, and it would be good to see anybody else who thinks they can do a better job than theresa may. traditionally, i'm a labour supporter. but, we do like theresa may's honesty. that some views from around the

country. on this day, i spoke to the environment secretary michael gove some time ago. he pledged his support for her. as soon as i heard that the leadership election had been called, i made it clear that i support the prime minister absolutely. i think she will win this evening, i think she deserves to win, i think we heard from people in the country who blew asked us if why we could not get on with the job. why do not go on with the job and deliver in the national interest? that is why i'm doing everything i can to convince them conservative mps that we should support the prime minister this evening. nfl in this morning, people said, what is it about the conservative party? the former deputy prime minister said, when a party wa nts deputy prime minister said, when a party wants to change the song, they are getting rid of the singer. recently, the labour party pitched

itself into a leadership contest, and a majority of labour mps... itself into a leadership contest, and a majority of labour mps. .. this is about the conservative party. majority of labour mps said they did not have confidence in lead jeremy corbyn. a healthy majority of conservative mps tonight will show that they have confidence in the prime minister. i am also confident, given the conversations i have had with people in my constituency and elsewhere, that people want us to show full support for the prime minister, and they want us to get on with making sure we deliver brexit on the 29th of march next year, and that we concentrate on making sure the nhs get the money it needs, the schools get the support they need, and though the environment is enhanced. an election that went wrong last year, you now rely on dup ‘s what empowerment, a change of mind on monday, it was minutes before it was announced you were saying that the boat was still going ahead. has she brought this on herself? absolutely not. it is important that we recognise that in 2016, more people voted than have

ever voted in any democratic choice in our history. they voted to leave the eu. the mahrez is working hard every day, based on that referendum result. —— the prime minister is working hard. also to make sure the democracy remains vital. isaac which are put to one side any criticism we hear from commentators and concentrate on the job. i know that an overwhelming majority of people in britain want to make sure that we have a government that delivers on the mandate and instruction that they have given. do you think she will win? i am sure she will win. the sooner that all of this is put to bed and the sooner that we unite behind the prime minister, the better for the country. now it's time for a look at the weather stav danaos we have a battle of air masses taking place at the end of the week, but it looks like the cold air will

wind out and we will see a return to some patchy overnight frost as well. there will be a little bit of rain in the west, that will be down to the area of low pressure, which will continue to fight back, and eventually, it will wind out for the weekend to bring some wet and windy weather with some significant slow over the hills, particularly in central and northern areas. we end the day with a final note, but it will be cold. weather front will bring parity rate in northern ireland and maybe some irish sea coasts of western britain as well. actually note to come, we have the clear skies, we could see a touch of frost in places full stop generally, most frost in places full stop generally, m ost pla ces frost in places full stop generally, most places between one and four degrees. this is the chart into thursday, high pressure is dominating the sea, the low pressure will squeeze against it, so the isobars full—time to, and that will draw in cold air of the continent, but also a strong wind. so it will felt colder for all areas. it is a similar story where much of the

country will be largely dry, variable cloud, some good spells of sunshine, too. the rain will linger across northern ireland and western wales and south—western english. we could see some patchy when your. is there, largely dry, a few coastal showers. the wind will be a factor, a breezy day with temperatures are around 5—8 celsius full stop it wasn't much colder than that, perhaps feeling more like freezing or one celsius in many places, despite the sunshine. into friday, it isa despite the sunshine. into friday, it is a similar story, high pressure is dominating the scene, but it will be another cold one with a strong south—east wind. sunny spells around as you can see, but again, the low pressure weather front will put in, so it will be a wet day for northern ireland and actually feel, temperatures even lower than this. this is the pressure chart at the end of the week, and into the weekend, the low pressure will fight back, but it bump into the cold air and there will be heavy snow, primarily over the hills, but at

lower areas, to full windy and wet feature across southern part of the country. for the weekend, feature across southern part of the country. forthe weekend, it feature across southern part of the country. for the weekend, it will be u nsettled, country. for the weekend, it will be unsettled, wet and windy for some, with the risk of some heavy snow across northern hills. this bbc news. the headlines. a challenge to the prime minister as conservative mps trigger a vote of confidence in her leadership. theresa may says she'll fight with everything she's got to keep herjob so graham brady has confirmed that he has received 48 letters from conservative mps are there will be a vote of confidence of my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. at least 15% of the parliamentary party submitted the letters of no confidence needed to hold the secret ballot. the vote will take place tonight. a ballot will be held between six and eight o'clock. and we will count as soon as we can and provide a result as soon as we can after that. before the vote theresa may will address the members

of her party who will then decide herfuture. here on bbc news... i'mjoined news... now by dr catherine haddon from the institute for government one. a lot of people... some interesting questions. dave smethurst emails us to ask, "if mrs may fails to win the no confidence vote will she stay on as the prime minister until a new leader is elected? will her deputy step in?" what happens? she can stay as prime minister and there is a good chance she does. we saw in 2016 when david cameron announced he was going to resign as prime minister, he said he'd stay on for the duration of the leadership contest. theresa may seems keen to stay and you heard

duty for the government so one can almost expect should do that. the key is we don't have a post of ca reta ker key is we don't have a post of caretaker prime minister during this period. we need a prime minister in place. there will be lots of things happening in government. so, in a way, it might be incumbent on how to stay in post. a lot of people suggesting david liddington would step in to carry them through until the new appointment. yes, this is also raced in the house of commons as well. it is possible they could do that but i as i say it isn't her character thus far. there has been big questions for the conservative party if they did that because they haven't been through the conservative leadership contest. obviously, this is all speculation at the moment, we will wait and see what the vote is tonight. but i think there is a good chance, given what she is like, she would like to stay in post but we don't know. right. second question. marcus on twitter asks "if significant numbers of her mps support a motion of no confidence, then surely theresa may has lost her majority and her ability

to get anything through parliament. can she realistically continue in this case?" it isa it is a very interesting question to pose but the two things are very different. confidence in parliament is assumed until you've clearly lost it, and that means actually losing a vote of no—confidence, in this case and that leads to all sorts of different things i think we will to ina minute different things i think we will to in a minute in one of the next question is! it will not imply that. she would be able to stay on if she'd lost a significant number of them because it means they won't vote with our another things and it means they won't want to bring down the government, trigger a general election and the fall of the government. the point isjust one vote, that is all she needs. just one vote beyond the majority so it could be quite narrow. we have a lot of expectation management coming out of expectation management coming out of number ten about what kind of numbers they think will be enough. whether or not she achieves a slightly in higher number than that,

we don't know. and it is a closed vote. dare i say it, they might say they voted one way and they will vote another. yes, and a lot of them on twitter, people have been counting the number of mps and ministers who have been saying they would support her. that is showing she has enough support. but it doesn't mean they will vote that way when they get into the room. we will see what they want to do. right, next one. pauline wardle on twitter asks, "how long do the letters to the 1922 committee stay valid ? " we don't actually know when the first letter went in. yes, there could have been some sense a premiership started for all we know. we don't know. we know there were a few put in a few weeks ago and the european research group said they'd thought they got 48 and hadn't. we don't know whether they have exceeded 48 and by how much. we don't know the scale of mps at the moment object into her on that

basis. they do stay valid. it is a moot point because if she wins this thread, she gets to stay in post for a year without any other challengers, so none of those letters would count for anything for the next year. what normally happens is either mps will withdraw them or say to sirgraham is either mps will withdraw them or say to sir graham brady... they are not burnt up and they start again? no, they stay valid as far as i'm aware. i could be wrong on this! what has happened over the last few weeks is some mps have said they didn't want their letter to be triggered, so it wasn't activated. and they told sir graham brady it would just stay on file for that period. one assumes that, you know, the vast majority, it would just be resumed if any year's time she was still in post and they were still asking these questions. one year seems a lifetime away! now, this one from andrew and pat barnes. should theresa may survive the vote, with the opposition have a vote of

no—confidence in government? what would happen if they won this? i just want to pick it up, the word survive. it is a win for her. she either wins or loses. it is but the vote and i doesn't change anything in terms of the other challengers she faces because she has a minority government, she faces huge challenges of getting her deal through and getting the numbers for all of that's all it does is create her ina all of that's all it does is create her in a more secure position as leader of the conservative party, not in her post as prime minister and her ability to get brexit through. to answer the question, it doesn't change any of that. they can still put down a motion of no—confidence and if they put it down ina no—confidence and if they put it down in a particularly worded way triggers a process that could lead toa triggers a process that could lead to a general election. but they have to a general election. but they have to do that... when you say they, it is only the opposition that can do that. it is. any other parties can put down votes but they would only come during their particular opposition days. the labour party are the only ones that can actually

put down an unambiguous, formal vote of no confidence and make sure that is timetabled for a vote and debate. so, the power really lies with the official opposition. and they could do that at any moment. yes, at any moment. and is at up to the speaker how it works? no, it is down to the government to timetable that under the guidance they have, the strong parliamentary convention is they have to do that at very early notice you'd expect that to happen very shortly. we don't know because we are coming up to next thursday... at the moment i think it is when parliament is going to end for christmas. the big question is whether they wanted to come at the moment labour seems to imply they don't want to... they are saying when, not if. to do that before that time, the clock is running down before christmas so you might be looking at january. oh, that richard cobb! so what happens if they win

this? if there is a vote of no—confidence, the labour party and the parties have said they want to back labour on this, what happens then? if labour win it... what happens is, if it is an unambiguous one under the fixed—term parliaments act, so it has to be worded under a particular way, this house has no confidence in her majesty ‘s government, its triggers a 14 day clock... another clock, excellent! that is 14 calendar days which takes us... if the vote happened immediately, that takes us into the christmas break. and during that 14 days, a government, possibly the current government, possibly a newly formed one under different primers to... so, presumably the queen is involved. the queen is involved somewhere and if that vote of no confidence was lost by the government and theresa may said, i can't, then, stay on as prime minister, i say that whoever,

another conservative mp, should be the prime minister now and should have this opportunity to form a government to get further agreements with the dup, with others, to try and shore up support. they then have to win another vote of confidence within the 14 day period, otherwise we go automatically to a general election. right. take a breath. it is compensated! paul ridge on twitter asks "could we reset article 50, ie unilaterally revoke it and then resubmit so starting the two year clock again?" well, there has been a lot of talk about what do we do about the deadline, 29th of march? if we start to have all these new processors, this conservative leadership contest, general election or another referendum because those will affect the time of time parliament has got to deal with the legislation to be planning furneaux deal. are there ways to extend the process? you can

extend it by asking the eu for an extension but that means their agreement and there is a finite amount of time they might be willing to grant for that. and you have to put it to each member state. yes, we would have to involve all of them. they have indicated they would do so if the uk needed to go through further constitutional processes but it isa further constitutional processes but it is a question of how much time because they've got eu parliament elections coming up as well. the other option your question implies... he says revoke. that is a big word. this is what the ruling of the european court ofjustice was about on monday where they said the uk could unilaterally revoke the article 50 process. interestingly, the advocate general who advises them said that if they do that it would have to be in good faith, so you were revoking it because you decided not to do brexit anymore. the question implies could you do it in order to start the clock again. what is interesting is that the

european court judgment didn't what is interesting is that the european courtjudgment didn't have that line in about good faith and also there is nothing they could do to stop it so, yes, in theory the uk could do that. but whether or not that would be seen as particularly bad form, how that would affect subsequent discussions and negotiations, i don't know. so, it could be revoked, article 50, so we would remain in the eu under the terms of the agreement as now, but, then, turn around and say... start then, turn around and say... start the process again? extraordinary, exactly, yeah, but we're getting into the land of things that seem much more remote. and much more difficult... we entered those stays a long time ago! if i told you two yea rs a long time ago! if i told you two years ago you'd be standing here talking about this, you'd have gone" talking about this, you'd have gone... never mind. jason knoll on twitter asks "greetings from the us. watched the pmqs this morning and it seems labour wants a general election. what would it take for that to happen?" so, this is what we were talking about earlier, this vote of no

confidence that could start a 14 day process and could then lead to a general election. the other option, obviously, is what theresa may did last year where she said i'm going to put down a motion for a general election, and that engulfs two thirds of the entire house to vote for it. those are the only two options of how you get to an early general election. labour, the only way they can instigate it is through a vote of no confidence so, unless other parties, also including some conservatives or the dup, want to vote the government down using the vote the government down using the vote of no—confidence, but they have to do it twice, that is one way of doing it. the other option, though, involves the government deciding they want a general election. involves the government deciding they want a general electionm isn't a question that has come in, but if theresa may loses the vote tonight, obviously, the focus is then on who replaces her. what is then on who replaces her. what is the processor that? the leadership contest would then be people putting

in their candidacy. we will wait and see how many of them are. that could ta ke see how many of them are. that could take a week or so. i'd imagine they would try to speed up the process. last time around, they were looking at several months before andrea letson dropped out and we had an early results with theresa may becoming prime minister. that process of how many candidates, first will because then conservative mps have to go through a series of ballots, where they tried to whittle down the number to just two candidates. each ballot, the person with the fewest votes would then drop out. where is that held? that would be held in parliament, so the implication is that also requires parliament to be sitting during that. again, if that were to happen, they try to find ways to speed up this process. they will not cancel christmas, will they? i'm pretty sure they won't. whether or not they cancelled the amount of leave parliament has, who knows at this point. then it is whittled down to two ? point. then it is whittled down to

two? yes, and then it goes out to a postal vote. in theory, this takes a certain amount of time because they'd normally want to have hustings, they'd normally have the two candidates being able to grow the country, to speak to constituencies and try to make their candidacy. doing all of that could ta ke candidacy. doing all of that could take a matter of weeks. this has a huge effect on the amount of time before we have a new primers to in place and know what their plan would be for how to take forward brexit. it is that word time again! i know what i'm getting you for christmas, it isa what i'm getting you for christmas, it is a club. fascinating, thank you for helping us out with that. there will be another one tomorrow, i suspect! let's have a look at the business news. let's go to marion. the markets are closely watching the goings on in westminster. the pound has recovered some of its recent losses as the latest indications are that theresa may has enough support to win tonight's no confidence vote. investors also very focussed on the latest twist in the trade row between china and the us, after conciliatory comments

from president trump. michael hewson, cmc markets is with me now. what are people around you saying about today? they are pretty mixed about today? they are pretty mixed about what is going on in westminster? it has been a roller—coaster 24 hours for the pound but the fact the pound is high tells you all you need to know, what the markets think is going to be the outcome of tonight's vote. the only real question is by how many votes will theresa may cross the line, and i think it is really on the basis of the fact this is a very unwelcome distraction from the matter at hand and the fact that, ultimately, the erg, and the fact that, ultimately, the er g, the arm of the conservative party, they don't have a consensus candidate to put forward, so any alternative is likely to be highly divisive. that, more than anything, is going to concentrate conservative

mps minds and force them to vote for theresa may so she gets passed this vote and ultimately removes a whole host of uncertainty that has been bubbling around the conservative party since that deal in chequers in the summer. if theresa may were to lose, that makes the likelihood of a no deal regs it a much bigger possibility and the markets, they can't countenance that, can they? they can't which is why they are choosing to focus on the positive outcome because if theresa may stays in post, ultimately, it provides a much greater degree of certainty for investors going forward and i ink thatis investors going forward and i ink that is why you're seeing the ftse 250 higher today, the ftse100 higher today because if she is able to push past the hard brexiteers, it'll die lute their influence on the brexit debate going forward and ultimately make a hard brexit much less likely. what about brexit

fatigue? i don't know if you're suffering from it but it has been said the reason the markets are reacting as they are, it is pretty muted considering. the reason is a lot of investors have had enough.” don't know about investors! i have had enough! i'm sick and tired of talking about it. ultimately, we are where we are and whatever happens over the next 24 hours, it doesn't change the calculus around the parliamentary arithmetic and the options facing the uk government. but i think what it does do, i think, it draws a line over all the plotting behind theresa may's back and makes a hard brexit much less likely because it will dilute the erg. all this depends on how winning the vote tonight and winning it convincingly. if she does win tonight, what do you expect the pound to do? we have already seen the rally, we've brought on the

rumour. it is likely we could go back into the range we have been in over the past week or so. 125 to about 129. against the dollar. all the good news is already priced in. all right, thank you for your point of view, thank you very much indeed. let's show you what the markets are doing. this is the latest live from the city. the pound recovering very slightly against the dollar and against the euro and the ftse all is also up one point to 6%. so the markets are looking positive right now. considering how difficult life has been in westminster, where simon is back for us. yes, it is very difficult. so how is this all going down with young voters? i'm joined now by lara spirit, from the pro—remain youth group; our future, our choice. you have actually been in parliament today. what was the mood of your

group? i think young people are concerned about brexit and they feel as if everything going on behind us in parliament and specifically within the conservative party is a bit of a fanfare, a massive distraction from what they are worried about which is how brexit will affect their futures. we came here today to tell mps we really wa nt here today to tell mps we really want the chance to have our say on this and we want mps to give us that people's vote and to give young people's vote and to give young people a chance to give their say on brexit. the assumption is younger people are more tended to the remains side of things. is that backed up by the figures? yes, it is. 70% of young people voted remain in the referendum but we know those who turned 18 since the referendum and can now vote, that is going up bya and can now vote, that is going up by a greater margin. 86% back remain, which is startling and backed up by our organisation, the young ones are mobilising and passionate about this and desperate for a people's vote. how did the mps respond to you? very positively. mps

understand this is an issue which affects young people hugely and many of them really want to hear from the concerns of young people but what matters now is how they vote how they turn out to protect our futures. we are desperate for them to get across the fact it is our futures and young people who are going to have to deal with the consequences of brexit the longest. what are those consequences? what is it about any form of brexit that worries you? we did a report with academics from the university of oxford and lse which showed that under a chequers styled deal, young people could lose up to £51,000 in lost earnings by 2050. for a world trade organisation, those figures are higher. young people could lose up are higher. young people could lose up to £180,000. how is that worked out? they did a whole different ways to work it out, the academics, they looked at it in terms of lost earnings and how it would pan out, and they looked at the economic

consequences, the predicted economic consequences, the predicted economic consequences and worked it out from there. do you have any contact from groups, similargroups there. do you have any contact from groups, similar groups elsewhere in europe? is this a view that crosses the channel as well? young people everywhere? one thinks of the ability of the ease of movement which has always been pointed as a big issue for younger people. young people care hugely about the ability to live and work abroad, something enjoyed by our parents and grant pa rents enjoyed by our parents and grant parents and something which we have taken for granted and feel we are going to lose. you talk about the rights of parents and grandparents but it is your parent generation, my generation who have voted, 52% have voted for brexit. of course. i'd also say that we talk about this generational divide but i don't think any parent or grandparent is knowingly voted to make their grandchildren poor and what we have donein grandchildren poor and what we have done in our organisation has had some interesting and meaningful conversations with our parents and grandparents and i've said you might think differently to us but we believe that our future is brighter within the eu and we'd ask you to

protect that which is part of the reason why we protect that which is part of the reason why we are protect that which is part of the reason why we are seeing a lot more people change towards being a bit more open—minded about a people's vote and some reluctantly realising this is actually probably the only way out of the mess. a lot of people say this is splitting families. when you have that conversation over lunch with parents and grandparents, our minds d? or to use and everyone is set in their ways now?” our minds d? or to use and everyone is set in their ways now? i think eve ryo ne is set in their ways now? i think everyone can unite in the way brexit has gone. my family, for example, we have a different range of opinion. some people in my family voted remain and some voted leave but we are all in opposition to theresa may's deal. we are in despair at how the last two years have gone and an increasing sense where this israeli urgent and inevitable now that we will have a people's vote. what about the idea of a vote tonight within the tory party about their leader? it is a massive distraction from the fact we're hurtling towards the biggest decision this country has taken in my lifetime and for

generations to come. the tory party is batting amongst themselves and we don't have time for them to be fighting within their ranks when this is something that is going to affect us for so long. will you go into politics? i don't think so, u nfortu nately! into politics? i don't think so, unfortunately! it is a bit of a shame, i think. unfortunately! it is a bit of a shame, ithink. that unfortunately! it is a bit of a shame, i think. that was brilliant, thank you very much. ijust wonder, when you finally walked out of that building, did you feel, yeah, they get it. for some of them, yes, for others, no but it is increasingly clear they will have to get and there is no time for them tonight. thank you very for joining there is no time for them tonight. thank you very forjoining us. this is bbc news. let's pull away from events in westminster for the moment. president trump's former lawyer — michael cohen — is due to be sentenced shortly. mr cohen has arrived in court in new york and is due to be sentenced for making illegal payments to two women who claim to have slept with donald trump. this is the scene at the federal court in new york where prosecutors are recommending that he serve at least three and a half years in prison.

an increasingly familiar draw. various issues that have been dealt with at this court in new york. prosecutors recommending that michael coens serve 3.5 years in prison. his defence is he was acting on the advise of president tram. how much trouble does that land the president in? we will keep an eye on what is happening in new york but thatis what is happening in new york but that is due to get under way shortly. lots more to come from here. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav danaos a battle of air masses taking place to end the week. it looks like in the short term the cold air will win out and we will see a return to some patchy overnight frost as well. there will be a little bit of rain in the west which will be down to this area of low pressure which will continue to fight back and, eventually, looks like it'll win out for the weekend to bring some wet, windy weather with significant snow in central and northern areas. we end the day with a largely fine day.

patchy rain in the west, northern ireland and around the irish sea coast of ireland and around the irish seacoast of western britain, too. a chilly might come with a touch of frost in places. generally, most places between one and 4 degrees. this is the pressure chart as we head on into thursday, high pressure dominating the scene, this area of high pressured squeezing up against it with a tightening up of isobars. colder of the continent but on a strong wind which will feel colder for everyone. the blue colours right across the uk. it is a summer story where much of the country will be largely dry, variable cloud with good spells of sunshine, that whether foundling green across ireland and the south—west of england where we could see some patchy rain at elsewhere largely dry apart from a funeral seacoast showers. factor in the wind, it'll bea showers. factor in the wind, it'll be a breezy day with temperatures 5-8, it be a breezy day with temperatures 5—8, it will feel much colder than that, perhaps freezing or1 degrees

in one or two places despite the sunshine. into friday, a similar story. high—pressure dominating but it'll be another cold one with fairly strong winds. but sunny spells around but, again, this low pressure system, this weather front encroaching in so it looks like it'll be wet for northern ireland and a chilly feel, temperatures lower than this. i will show you the pressure chart into the weekend, it looks like the area of low pressure bites back and we are likely to see a spell of transient heavy snow on hills and lower levels. a windy and wet feature across southern parts of the country. the weekend is a mixed bag, looking unsettled, wet and windy for some with the risk of heavy snow across northern hills. stay tuned to the forecast. good afternoon from westminster where conservative mps are preparing to vote on the prime minister's future. theresa may says she'll fight with everything she's got to keep herjob.

sir graham brady has confirmed he has received 48 letters from conservative mps so there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i have got. at least 15% of the parliamentary party sent the letters of no confidence required to trigger a ballot. the vote starts in just two hours' time. a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm and we will count as soon as we can provide a result as soon as we can after that. before that, theresa may will come to this committee room in an hour's time where she will address the members of her party who will decide herfate. and we're in worcester — a town that voted to leave — to find out what people there make of the prime minister's predicament. welcome to westminster,

where theresa may has pledged to fight for her leadership "with everything she's got" after conservative backbenchers triggered a vote of confidence in her. she will face a ballot of tory mps that starts in just two hours' time. the challenge to her premiership was triggered after dozens of backbenchers wrote to the party saying they had lost faith in her. speaking in downing street, theresa may warned changing leader threatened to delay or even stop brexit, and could put the country's future at risk. our political correspondent, iain watson, has our first report on another dramatic day in westminster, and a warning it contains some flash photography. the first clue that it really was not going to be business as usual in downing street. a lot was going on under the cover of darkness. the chief whipjulian smith, who is supposed to know if the prime minister has enough

support to carry on, left number ten late last night and i spotted him again very early this morning. soon after, we confirmed that the prime minister was facing a vote of no—confidence. after dawn broke, the podium appeared. there would be a prime ministerial statement, but definitely not a resignation. and when theresa may emerged, her message to her own mps was defiant. there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. a change of leadership in the conservative party now would put our country's future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone. i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister and i stand ready to finish the job. but the trouble is, some people want to finish her political career. watching was owen paterson,

one of the mps who signed a letter of no—confidence, he said the so—called backstop to avoid a hard border in ireland, was unacceptable. her deal is absolutely appalling. we don't leave the customs union. i was in washington recently, we won't be able to do trade deals and the backstop is completely unacceptable and it is quite unnecessary. and some of her critics point out that under the conservative party rules, if mps don't dislodge her today, they are stuck with her beyond brexit. today was inevitable. i put my letter of no—confidence in back injuly and it is disappointing we are here, but we have to deal with it. colleagues have got to understand when they vote tonight, if the prime minister survives, she has 12 months where she can't be challenged. so there are many, many reasons, including public trust, as to why this vote of confidence is necessary. the downing street strategy is to get as many supportive voices in front of the cameras as possible before tonight's vote. the prime minister is

the right person to take us forward and we need to give her our full support. all this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the british people or the british economy. and her predecessor tweeted his support, saying that any leadership contest would be a distraction. downing street will be arguing that there already consequences from this challenge to the prime minister at a time when she should be negotiating with european partners. she has had to cancel a cabinet meeting today and a meeting with her irish counterpart leo va radkar. a crucial meeting, perhaps, to try and get the reassurance some of her own mps want over the issue of the irish backstop or how to avoid a hard border on the island of ireland. questions to the prime minister... one thing in her schedule that wasn't cancelled was prime minister's questions. she had sidestepped a vote on her deal this week butjeremy corbyn

urged her to give mps say. the time for dithering and delay by this government is over. the prime minister has negotiated her deal, she has told us it is the best and only deal available. there can be no more excuses, no more running away. put it before parliament and let's have the vote. he should be honest with people. he should be honest with people about his position. he couldn't care less about brexit. what he wants to do is bring down the government, create uncertainty, sew division and crash our economy. the biggest threat to people and this country isn't leaving the eu, it is a corbyn government. and the snp went further in their criticisms of the prime minister. the tory party is in chaos. the prime minister is a disgrace with her actions. the reality is that people across scotland and the uk

are seeing this today. prime minister, take responsibility, do the right thing, resign. after pmqs, theresa may's day is likely to get worse because, at 5pm, she effectively reapplies for her ownjob, talking to mps in what is called the backbench1922 committee. at 6pm, they vote on her future in a secret ballot. if more than half of the parliamentary party, 158 mps, vote against, she will have to step aside and the leadership vote begins. the prime minister's argument is that a change of leader could take so long, brexit may have to be postponed. but today, she had to postpone her own entry into parliament when the gates didn't open. some of her mps want her kept out of office permanently. so — all eyes will be on the confidence vote tonight, which takes place between 6 and 8 pm. 315 conservative mps will decide the prime minister's future. so what does theresa may need to do to win tonight's vote among her mps?

the prime minister needs the backing of a majority of tory mps to win — at the start of the day that meant she needed 158 votes but now it's 159 because it's been decided suspended mp andrew griffiths is allowed to vote. so if she does win, she cannot be challenged in this way for another year. but if she loses, then what happens? there would be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand, but she would remain as prime minister until a replacement is announced. tory mps then choose two candidates — via a series of ballots — to put forward to a vote of ordinary party members around the country. the candidates would be expected to take part in debates before the final voting deadline. if there's only one candidate, then that person becomes the new conservative leader — with no need for a vote from members. the winner of any tory leadership contest would also be expected to become the new prime minister. but there is a worry that this entire process could take weeks — leaving the brexit process even more uncertain.

a leadership contest could delay the house of commons vote on the withdrawal bill even further — potentially putting the brexit deadline of 29th march in jeopardy. with me is the conservative mp liz truss. you will be going in to hearfrom theresa may, what do you... i know he supporter, but what do you think she needs to say to sway those who may still be undecided? what i think is happening that quite a lot of people are looking at the cold and ha rd people are looking at the cold and hard reality of what could happen if there ends up being a leadership election, which i think is a real threat to brexit taking place. i think what people want to hear today, which is also what they heard on monday, is what is the prime minister going to do to make sure the deal with the eu can get all of our colleagues on board, can reassure those who want to make sure that the backstop is temporary. so i

think there will be discussions of that nature. what i have been hearing from my colleagues today is more and more of them are thinking about what the reality of a leadership election would mean. it would mean throwing the dice, throwing the cards in the air, potentially not getting the brexit which all of our constituents voted for, and which we want to deliver. whereas, the prime minister has a clear plan to deliver that, she is getting those extra agreements she needs to come european partners. i believe that will be successful. now was not the time for a leadership election. you know better than i that it was the decision to put off the vote that angered so many of your colleagues. this is a mess of her making. it is certainly true, there were people on monday who were concerned that the vote would be put off. i would ask them to listen to what the prime minister said. she acknowledged that there were concerns about the deal she was asking them to vote for. she put off the vote, so she could get a better

deal. i think it was right that she listened, it is right that she is engaging with colleagues and listening to what they have to say. now would be a completely crazy time to have this leadership election, just as we are getting to the point where we do have a deal, which delivers what people want — editor free movement, control of our own laws will stop but also, getting the extra concessions that reassure conservatives that want to see the backstop... do you think is concessions can do that? will they make a change to the deal? we need to give the prime minister guitars to give the prime minister guitars to have those discussions with the irish government, with the eu. to my mind, the timing of this isjust irish government, with the eu. to my mind, the timing of this is just all wrong. the very fact that there is this that night in the house of commons, amongst tory mps, does this not mean she has her authority shot? i disagree, not mean she has her authority shot? idisagree, i not mean she has her authority shot? i disagree, i think there will be strong support for her this evening, thatis strong support for her this evening, that is what i'm hearing from a lot

my colleagues will stop what strong support? that's going to the numbers. iweb speculate on numbers. i'm sure you've spent all day doing that. i haven't actually. let's start. there is strong support for the prime minister in her position. there is a frustration with those who have kicked off this process, just at the time of the most important negotiations our country is undertaking for 40 years. we need to let her get on with that process and deliver brexit. our constituents would forgive us if we seem to play politics at this very important time for our country. he has spent the day inside this building, all day, are groups of your colleagues saying if she loses, who will be back? no, what people are saying is they want to support her. they are saying that there isn't really an alternative plan for others about what could happen. the parliamentary arithmetic ‘s are not going to change. the

reality of negotiations in brussels are not going to change. what i am hearing is frustration that we are evenin hearing is frustration that we are even in the position of having a vote tonight. and an absolute determination that we will not allow this to overthrow the positive progress we're making in these negotiations. i must let you go and vote and have a first. frank —— thank you forjoining us. let's speak to our political correspondent ben wright who is in central lobby there seems to be a phase going out of the anger against the prime minister. i think that is right, the brexiteers seem more flat than theresa may's supporters in parliament this afternoon. i spoke to one cabinet minister who said that we are talking about the message visitors electorate in the world, you can never tell who was lying. while there is confidence that she has the numbers here, perhaps to win comfortable, nobody is being complacent. a lot could

change in the next two or three hours, a lot is riding on how theresa may performs in the meeting with the 1922 committee at 5pm, where she will give a strong indication to tory mps there but she doesn't intend to fight an extra general election. that could do a lot to shore up her support in the vote this evening. even if she were to win, it doesn't change the fund mental dynamics and take that there isa mental dynamics and take that there is a lot of opposition in parliament to the current withdrawal agreement on the agreement that she is trying to sell. one cabinet minister, liam fox, said today that you get the carrot to what changes from that deal. —— he wanted the cabinet to accept changes. i think it is very difficult to support the deal if we do not get changes to the backstop. i do not think it will get through. i am not sure the cabinet will agree for it to be put through to the house of commons. why is downing street calling grant shapps and telling him about progress on the backstop and not the trade secretary? we were due to have a cabinet meeting today

which has been put off because we are in the middle ofa confidence vote. would other cabinet ministers, if there were not clarification on the backstop, would they not vote for it either? this is a process the prime minister is in. having listened to what the house of commons and the conservative party has said, trying to change the changes with european partners we have seen an interruption of the process. i think people out there — party supporters and people in the country would be saying why oh why would the tory party plunge itself a confidence vote on the prime minister when this vote is in the national interests and the pa rty's interests? leo varadkar one of the city and lasts readily cabinet table. —— liam fox. it theresa may get through today, is reinstated as party leader with another year of safety are

heard of her, it still doesn't change that she has a heck of a job to try and get their brexit deal through parliament. a lot of people here say that if the brexiteer rebellion we have seen a rut, is defeated, that may make it easier for her to pivot away and find some sort of cross—party majority for a plan. we will see. thank you, ben. with me is the sir anthony sheldon, theresa may's biographer and vice—chancellor of buckinghamshire university. i was talking to somebody earlier who was watching theresa may in prime ministers questions, and saying, she looks as if she is listening this. do you think she enjoys this sort of constant battle that she is facing? i don't think she does. but i think she is quite pleased in a way to be bringing it toa pleased in a way to be bringing it to a head. today is a real moment,

and if she comes through it, then it gives her some more time. so she didn't want to come i'm sure, but now it is, there is a chance to get some fresh air. that she get fresh air if she is only one vote above what is required ? air if she is only one vote above what is required? what is the level? that is a great question. one vote would be enough for her, she is a fighter and will carry on. but to be able to have more power and authority, particularly to push her deal through, it will be helpful to get a lot better than 158. so the last time this happened, 1995, john major, very similar circumstances, he got a quite overwhelming majority, 218 against 89 from john redwood, yet, his last 18 months in power were overshadowed by constant

bickering from the very people who brought him to think that he needed to have himself call this leadership election in him to try and get that confidence from the party back. does this very process reduce her authority to a point where she will have a problem with not her party, but all parties year? she already has got quite a few problems with quite a few parties, particularly her own. we keep wondering if it can get any worse, surely not. this is totally the most used expression this year, uncharted waters. you have described as of the biggest crisis constitutionally since the application. i think it will be if she doesn't get the votes to allow her to stay on as prime minister, because we then have a constitutional crisis overlaying the

biggest political crisis for many yea rs, biggest political crisis for many years, arguably since the second world war and before. so if she goes, there has to be a new prime minister. will that prime minister be able to get the legitimacy and respect, there is a slender, if any, kind of majority at all for the conservative party. will there be a leader with a new policy? when churchill took over from neville chamberlain in 1940, not only does a new prime minister, but a very clear new prime minister, but a very clear new plan. there is no new plan that will satisfy both sides, other than the middle of the road plan that she is offering. so, a new face, but same time? that will hardly work. so yes, this is a time of great constitutional uncertainty. we have a monarch, one of the viewpoint of the ability, but she is very

elderly, she has got a new private secretary, we have a new cabinet secretary. two of the key three officials of state are new. to coin a phrase, this is uncharted waters. coming from you, it does strike fear in many hearts. thank you for joining us. let's get the reaction from europe, and in brussels. i've been speaking to our correspondent kevin connolly brussels to find out what politicians there think of the confidence vote and its potential impact on brexit a lot of people know british politics very well, they will understand how brexit works. this is still seen as a pretty bewildering and extraordinary moment. there is no doubt the theatre of british politics, the adversarial nature of it, is seen as fascinating here. institutionally, things are a bit

more dull. we're not going to get the president of the european commission saying we wa nt theresa may to stay in. it would be a funny day in politics if they would help her stay at the leader of the british tory party. but what they would say is that the deal that has been arranged so far, the salivated withdrawal agreement, that declaration on future relations, that is not an agreement with theresa may personally, that is in agreement with the british government. the cabinet signed off on it. so they would certainly deploy the legal argument that nothing changes if the leader is replaced. the other point to make is that this is a grouping of 28 democracies, soon to be 27, leaders do come and go. whoever turns up as prime minister of the uk will sadly be the prime minister of the united kingdom. were she to lose, it is assumed that she would still come in tomorrow as

a caretaker prime minister. and she will still be in office, although with a diminished authority. it is seen as an interesting moment, but the british idea that everything will change if you have a different leader, a different tone or strategy, that is not accepted here. they say this is a complex negotiation, which has involved 28 governments, changing the leader of one of those governments, even if it is the one at the centre of the business, won't change as much as some british mps might care to think. the scottish first minister, nicola sturgeon has been giving her reaction to theresa may's leadership challenge — she said the prime minister should resign and that scottish independence is coming closer by the day. theresa may should resign, the entire government should resign, because it has made such a mess of brexit, and it has ceased to function any other respect. we have been reminded today that the entire uk have been plundered into crisis and chaos because of a vicious civil war within the tory party.

it is a disgrace, it is selfish and self indulgent, and the sooner the lot of them go, the better. does this make scottish independence possible? i think the tories, with each day that passes right now, are making the case for scottish independence much stronger. john curtice is professor of politics at the the university of strathclyde, joins me now from glasgow. these cells is amongst theresa may's tea m these cells is amongst theresa may's team is that a win is a win, even just by one vote. the first thing to say is that the fact that the contest has been called today is perhaps an indication that theresa may's strongest asset until now is clearly of diminishing value. her strongest asset to now was that perhaps she was the one conservative leader who might be able to keep the two wings of her party together. that has looked increasingly in doubt as anybody who is in the

purgatory that she has been put through the house of commons, through the house of commons, through these statements on the deal. the fact that we have now got this contest in itself is an indication that the two wings of the party, the brexiteers on the mainstream of the party, are no longer willing to invest their faith. the size of the vote does matter. it will matter because firstly, the bigger the vote against her, i think more involved and will be those who are minded to vote against her deal. it will also matter because in truth, the bigger the vote against, the less the time that she will be able to remain in office. we are already being told that one of the she is using to persuade mps to back is that she is indicating she would fight the next election indeed may well resign next year. we should remember that it is not just year. we should remember that it is notjust an year. we should remember that it is not just an argument year. we should remember that it is notjust an argument about year. we should remember that it is not just an argument about the brexit deal as it has already been in place and the backstop, this is

also mps looking forward to who will be negotiating the uk's relationship with the eu for the next two years, if brexit does happen. the brexiteers want a canada style free trade arrangement, theresa may want chequers. one of the reasons why this challenge has happened is that they are trying to dislodge somebody who they fear, in delivering brexit, will deliver a very different kind of brexit that we would enjoy. let's talk numbers, because that is what we both love to talk about. what would you regard as a safety net for theresa may? what moment can she still slightly strengthened by the results you tonight? the honest truth is that we have just over 300 tory envies, so she has got over 200, and certainly got two thirds, then she can at least regard it as a reasonable outcome. if much more than 100 mps voted against, then i

think she will be struggling to remain for very long. she will find it difficult to get that deal to the house of commons, it looks pretty and possible anywhere. i think that is the benchmark, not least because also, 100 mps voting against her would imply either quite a few ministers voted against, or that a majority of backbenchers voted against her. neither of which would be comfortable. we will never know, i hated it this way, but sometimes mps like, and this is a close vote. one of the things that has been pointed out is that when conservative leaders have been challenged, they have often ended up not doing quite as well as the initial speculation suggested. so of course, we will never know who voted against, but given the size of the payroll vote, if you have more than 100 mp5 payroll vote, if you have more than 100 mps voting against her, then the majority of backbenchers have voted against, or another of ministers who are still going to remain in office have also voted against her. thank

you, john. with me is the conservative mp, kwasi kwarteng. you are backing theresa may tonight? what is the mood amongst tory colleagues? the people who support the prime minister are positives and think she could get a strong vote tonight, we hope that she gets the mandate and she can be prime minister for one mandate and she can be prime ministerfor one more mandate and she can be prime minister for one more year. importantly, minister for one more year. importa ntly, see through minister for one more year. importantly, see through these important very crucial negotiations. i think that is the serious job we have. how much of the mess tonight is of her own making? the election one year ago, which meant that she now has to rely on the dup in the house, she announced on monday she was cancelling the vote on tuesday, where is her authority at the moment? i don't think that it is a mess of her making at all. i think brexit was controversial, it was a difficult thing to land, and i think she has done extremely well under difficult circumstances. we are rightly the end of the race, it would be insane i think to switch

jockeys as it were, in the middle of the horse race. it doesn't make any sense. i think we have to see it through. it was said that you want to change the song, so you get rid of the singer. that is what the tory party does. what of the conservative party do this? that is a question about how the party behaves. i think it isa about how the party behaves. i think it is a sign of strength, there are lots of individuals with strong views and passionate about politics. conservative leadership has always been a question in my... i have been a memberfor 20 been a question in my... i have been a member for 20 years, been a question in my... i have been a memberfor 20 years, the colour memory time when the leadership hasn't been a question. so we will have a debate and a vote, the prime minister will get a strong vote, and then we can move on. what you make of the language of people like philip hammond said this morning, this is the vote and the moment we can flush out the extremists. if that help full? they are passionate people on all sides of this debate, just like there are passionate people on the brexit debate. they

will say, the vote was for brexit. it was a 52% vote for brexit, and i spoke to said bernard jenkin earlier, who said we were treated as though we are the outsiders. we are the ones who have the mandate.” though we are the outsiders. we are the ones who have the mandate. i was a brexiteer, and i think the deal delivers on most of what i campaign for intensive freedom of movement, our annual subscription to the eu also ends, the european court jurisdiction over the parliament, that ends as. the issue is the backstop? i agree with you, the prime minister address that earlier this week and said that was an issue, that is why she has gone back to europe to negotiate. there are 585 pa g es to europe to negotiate. there are 585 pages in the withdrawal room and, most of that stuff are very good for britain. you have a meeting at 5pm, you will hear from her again. is there anything she can say to those who are not quite sure where they will vote on this?” think she will say what people have been saying all day. we are at the

griddle stage in negotiations, this is the time to back the prime minister, she needs all the support she can get, and a leadership contest, she can get, and a leadership co ntest, a n she can get, and a leadership contest, an election is a distraction from what we are trying to do. well with the party be tomorrow, if she remains leader or prime minister, has she dealt with those who say she is not the right person? what are we just in four weeks of this before what will be a very difficult vote anyway? ironically, if she gets through the vote today, under party rules, she has a whole year before we go through any of this kind of thing. anyway, i think it will stabilise the situation and she has one year in which she can deliver brexit and get on with the job. so not strong, but stable? i think it will strengthen her hand, i am hoping she gets a good vote tonight. will let you go, thank you forjonas. let's have a look at the weather. it is turning chile. you'll be

grabbing your hat, gloves and scarves for the next couple of days as we start to drawing cold air of a continent just browse as we start to drawing cold air of a continentjust browse short while and then it would be milder at the weekend. very unsettled with strong winds, rain and snow in the forecast. as we head on into this evening and tonight it will be mostly drivers one or two showers affecting the eastern coast. you'll still be cloudy with spots of rain for northern ireland on the far south—west of england towards wales. mostly dry with clear spells leading to apache brass. the chilies start to apache brass. the chilies start to tomorrow. variable cloud and good spells of sunshine. we will have a stronger east or south—easterly wind which will make it film or all with the cold air. temperatures around five to 7 degrees. out of the wind much colder than that. on friday a similar day. it will turn more u nsettled,

similar day. it will turn more unsettled, a bit milder but there will be transient snow as rain spreads its weight eastwards. —— its way. this is bbc news. the headlines: theresa may says she will fight with everything she has to keep herjob. there will now be a vote of confidence in leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that they with everything i have got. at least 15% of the parliamentary party submitted the letters of no confidence. the vote will start in an hourand a confidence. the vote will start in an hour and a half. a ballot will be held between 6pm and eight p:m.. we will provide the result as soon as we can. before that theresa may will come to this committee room in half an hour to address members of her party you will then decide her fate. more on theresa may pledging to

fight for her leadership after conservative backbenchers triggered a voter confidence in. more reaction to the confidence vote on twitter. sajid javid said, the last thing our country needs now is the conservative party leadership election. it will be seen as self—indulgent and wrong. the pm has my full support and is the best person. they hope that conservative mps will back the pm in the vote to date was no distractions and seeking the best outcome with neighbours, friends and partners in the eu. labour leader jeremy corbyn has said, whatever happens way it does nothing to solve the conservatives total inability to govern and the dup mp sammy wilson has tweeted as well. our confidence

and supply agreement is with the conservative and unionist party. i hope this from nigel farage. time to stand up and show some courage. we've heard from arlene foster — the leader of the democratic unionist party — in the last hour. she told our northern ireland political editor mark devenport, that while it was important for a deal to be reached

with the eu, it had to be the right deal for northern ireland. we need to be creative look for ways through this. it has to be the right deals that it cannot be a deal to damage the constitutional position of northern ireland or the economic need of long—term interests of the people of northern ireland was a bit as important to get a deal that adds to be the right deal. the secretary of state also said the government stands behind the stormont lock, giving some kind of a lot on whether different regulations between northern ireland and great britain. that was not in the withdrawal agreement. it was not. as you know my friend and colleague the deputy leader has raised back in the house of commons on a number of occasions saying to the prime minister, where is paragraph 50? that is what she is referring to in terms of dealing with the regulatory alignment of northern ireland. i heard back from karen bradley today that you needed to have been in that withdrawal agreement. that is our position and

remains our position. you said on a couple of occasions today are ready that you do not see the conservative leadership is being your business. surely the kind of radical change of policy over brexit would require a new leader, wouldn't it? we have had a conversation with theresa may. she understands what is needed in terms of dealing with the backstop. it is not just us that of dealing with the backstop. it is notjust us that has an issue with the backstop. many people in the chamber right across the house have an issue with the backstop. she knows she has to deal with that issue. informal tallies show 170 conservative mps have already pledged support for her. given the likelihood that you will still be dealing with her tomorrow's leader of the conservative party? who knows what will happen in that election buzz about the matter for the conservative party and they must decide who they want to lead them into the future. that vote is getting closer and closer. with me is the conservative commentator, tim montgomerie.

i use sensing she is in a more co mforta ble i use sensing she is in a more comfortable position than yesterday? i think she will win in quite handsomely. be some questions after the result as to whether the decision of the chairman of the nine to 22 committee said graham brady to have the contest so quickly after the letters went in with baby the prime minister. —— the 1922 committee. speculation was the contest would be monday or tuesday next week. that will allow her to gather momentum. the fact it is so quick that she could get a bounce offered good prime minister's question time performance today: that thing may have favourite quite substantially. assuming that she wins there is a good win and a bad win. what is a good win? i think if she keeps the rebellion under about 100 mp5, i think

she keeps the rebellion under about 100 mps, i think downing street will be very pleased. she will have a good two thirds of parliamentary party behind her. i think that really does not just party behind her. i think that really does notjust technically party behind her. i think that really does not just technically for yea rs really does not just technically for years that absolutely four—year settle the contest. if the numbers get much above 100, there will be growing pressure on the cabinet and growing pressure on the cabinet and growing questions to be much more assertive with her. i think there is concerned that the cabinet has allowed her to allow the brexit talks to drift on for too long and i think that will involve the cabinet to be harder on her of more than 100 mps rebelled today. there is a feeling that even if she gets only the one vote she requires above the minimum she will regard that as enough and say, on we go. she will do that. there is something in destructive about the prime minister with whatever is thrown at her she perseveres. i think downing street

will certainly insist a one—vote victory is enough but if it is as that all closer to that then i think she will be very badly wounded prime minister. as she should at this time lotsa people are saying this is the worst time to have a leadership election. most tory mps know that that it election. most tory mps know that thatitis election. most tory mps know that that it is their desperation at the situation, the fact she is notjust disappointing them on brexit but the government has no wider agenda. it is only out of desperation that tory mps are taking the moves they have today. it is all about time that there is a clock ticking over the whole brexit trainers heading to the rafters of the 29th of march. if she tonight she will feel, i go back on my mission to keep trying to persuade others in europe to help me. yes. if you talk to anybody in europe at the moment there is nothing on offer which would seem to

offer any appeasement of those criticising her tonight. the one thing that will change as she winces europe will know they are dealing with the prime minister of britain who will still be there in a week, a month or three months. even though lots of people might find what has happened today unwelcome, i think the fact the prime minister's edition is likely to be secured, it may be a good thing for her authority and credibility. europe is asking questions, what does theresa may actually want? they will know today they are dealing with theresa may. always good to see you. earlier i spoke to environment secretary michael gove, and he pledged his support for theresa may. i made it perfectly clear i support the prime minister absolutely. she will win this evening and she deserves to win. we have just heard from people in the country who are looking at the spectacle and thinking, why can't you mps get on with the job

thinking, why can't you mps get on with thejob i get thinking, why can't you mps get on with the job i get on with delivering the brexit that people voted for an governing the national interest? that is what i am focused on doing which is why am doing everything i can to convince conservative mps we should support the prime minister this evening. listening to a phone in this morning we would have heard, what is it about a party that when it wants to change a song gets rid of the s|nger? change a song gets rid of the singer? we saw actually recently that the labour party pitched itself into a leadership contest and a majority of labour mps. .. this is about the conservative party. majority of labour mps show they did not have confidence injeremy corbyn. help the majority of mps tonight will show they have confidence in the prime minister. i am also confident given conversations i have had the people in my constituency of surrey heath and elsewhere that people want us to show full support for the prime minister and they want is to get on with making sure we deliver brexit on march 29 of next year and we also

concentrate on making sure the nhs has the money it needs and schools get the support they need and environment is enhanced. you rely on the dup full support in parliament. a change of mind on monday. minutes before it was announced he was saying the vote was going ahead. hasn't she brought the mess upon herself? absolutely not. it is important we recognise that in 2016 more people voted than have voted in any democratic choice in our history. they voted to leave the european union. the prime minister is working hard every day to honour the referendum result and do so in a way to make sure our economy remains strong and democracy is vital. i think they should put to one side any of the criticisms that you sometimes hearfrom any of the criticisms that you sometimes hear from commentators any of the criticisms that you sometimes hearfrom commentators and concentrate on the job. i know that the overwhelming majority of people in britain want to make sure we have a government that delivers on the mandate and instructions they have

given. do you think they will win? i am absolutely sure the prime minister will win. the sooner the all of this is put to bed and the sooner that we unite behind the prime minister the better for the country. he seems rather confident. what are the odds of theresa may staying in power? the bookies are having a busy day. with me is matthew shaddick, the head of political betting at ladbrokes. the big question, what are the chances of her winning? betting markets are very confident she will survive the vote tonight. she is 1/ 90% probability that she will win. in terms of how will vote against, ladbrokes central projection market on their suggests around 105 mps are expecting to vote against her tonight. that is the figure, isn't it? is she keeps it under100 tonight. that is the figure, isn't it? is she keeps it under 100 she will have slightly beaten expectations. if she wins satisfying thought of it she loses there is a

lot of talk about who replaces her. this is grist to the mail. it is already a big hit betting market. if she loses me get a prize winner plunged into a leadership contest one of the most open betting markets i have seen. at the moment we have joint favourites boris johnson and dominic raab both on 4/1. who else is in the running? sajid javid at 6-1 is in the running? sajid javid at 6—1 and behind him we have michael gove. foreign secretaryjeremy hunt at10-1. gove. foreign secretaryjeremy hunt at 10-1. is she loses is it all goes pear shaped for her in this building various call for a general election, are you predicting what might happen with that? we are offering 6-4 there isa with that? we are offering 6-4 there is a general election next year, about a 40% chance. the market thinks it is more likely we get a referendum before we get another general election. 5—4 moment there isa general election. 5—4 moment there is a referendum. what about the

chances of her getting a brexit deal through? yes. chances of a no deal, the betting market is saying around a 30% chance. we get a no deal scenario, i think that might come down a bit and people might be more confidently exit with a withdrawal agreement should she win comfortably tonight. what else are you taking bets on at the moment? any odd ones that are not there is a lot of money going on that the uk stays in the eu. 3-1 that going on that the uk stays in the eu. 3—1 that we get a referendum next year in the uk votes to remain to reversed the decision. the figure you are giving of 105 crew that will not bring muchjoy you are giving of 105 crew that will not bring much joy to you are giving of 105 crew that will not bring muchjoy to her that you are giving of 105 crew that will not bring much joy to her that it would only bit of money, would it? at the moment the bookies will may to win so we will be cheering her on. thank you. just a little light relief in what has been a long and

extraordinary day at westminster and it is getting more and more extraordinary is that vote becomes clearer. she is talking to members of the 1922 committee at five o'clock and the vote gets under way at six p:m.. a result we think around nine o'clock because the voting closes at eight. it is a closed vote. the special programme on bbc one and the bbc news channel beginning at 7:30pm with andrew neil. what do people outside the westminster bubble think about toppling theresa may? voters in worcester elected a conservative mp last year and voted leave in the eu referendum. our reporter kathryn stanczyszyn has visited the city to gauge their view of the prime minister. people have been pretty vocal in their views here today in the beautiful city centre of worcester. many people telling me that whether they work remain or leave, they are

worried. uttering the refrain, we just want this to be got on with full story just want brexit to happen. i am joined full story just want brexit to happen. iamjoined by full story just want brexit to happen. i am joined by brian and irene out and about in worcester city centre today." can i ask whether you were voting to leave or remain? remain. what you make of the latest developments, this vote of confidence in theresa may? latest developments, this vote of confidence in theresa may7m beggars belief how anybody would think it is a good time to enter into such a thing. who is going to be the big, white knight to come forward and say that they can negotiate with europe when they have made it clear that they are not up for moving? you think it is playing politics at the moment. absolutely. i cannot say anything else but. at this late stage. that is what i keep hearing. this is actually late to do

this. late to be doing anything like this. late to be doing anything like this. let them get on with brexit foot of this is not going to help get on with it, is it? we have christmas in between and it will not happen. you say that as remainers, do not think this might end up in is actually not leaving the european union? it would be nice to think that even though we are remain as democracy can be thought of, and the democratic vote click can be played out. i democratic vote click can be played out. lam democratic vote click can be played out. i am sure that if we saw of did remain now than there would be very much a lot of ill feeling from the people who did vote to leave. do you expect theresa may to still be prime minister tomorrow?” expect theresa may to still be prime minister tomorrow? i hope so so she can carry on getting on with it because otherwise what is going to happen? when will it be done? brexit will be delayed. thank you very much. what is going to happen is

something that people keep asking. none of us review know at the moment. we're hearing that around 170 mp5 moment. we're hearing that around 170 mps have publicly backed the prime minister. she needs a figure of 158 to win the confidence vote later. of course we do not know at the moment. you are watching bbc news. let's bring you some other news. france is on the higher state of alert, as police continue the hunt for a gunman who shot dead three people, at a christmas market in strasbourg yesterday. 13 others were wounded, eight of them seriously. the suspect has been named as cherif chekatt, a 29—year—old petty criminal from strasbourg, and prosecutors say he shouted "allahu akbar" or ‘god is great,‘ during the attack. security forces have stepped up checks on the german border, amid fears he may have fled france. here's our europe correspondent, damian grammaticus. this is a city now on alert.

hundreds of police on a manhunt. the site of the attack was strasbourg's christmas market, thronged with people when the gunman struck. screams. he simply walked into the narrow old alleys and opened fire. within minutes, the heart of strasbourg was empty. people taking shelter hid in shops and bars, barricaded inside. after almost an hour, security forces and the attacker exchanged fire. "30 or 40 minutes", he says, the shooting went on for. he filmed police scrambling to take cover. he says he knew the attacker, a local man of algerian origin with a record of petty crimes. "yes, he was imprisoned here and germany too," he says. ali told us the gunman was sharif chakat. he knew him. both had spent time in prison for theft. he saw him armed with a kalashnikov shooting at people on the street and up in their homes. translation: i saw people running. police running too. everyone was saying, "it's gunshots."

so now hundreds of police and soldiers are searching for him. the nearby border with germany is being patrolled, and strasbourg's famous christmas market has been shattered, business stopped. the christmas market is one of the big attractions that draws visitors to us. we don't know when this one will reopen. france has been put on the highest level of alert, and the government says that security will now be stepped up at christmas markets across the country. damian grammaticas, bbc news, strasbourg. in a moment we'll have all the business news, but first the headlines on bbc news. theresa may says she'll fight with everything she's got to keep herjob as she faces a vote of confidence in her leadership. at least 15% of the parliamentary party submitted the letters of no confidence needed to hold the secret ballot. the vote will start in just over an hour's time. before that, theresa may will come to this

committee room shortly where she will address the members of her party who will decide herfate. maryam moshiri is back in our newsroom studio with the business news. the markets are closely watching the goings on in westminster. the pound has recovered some of its recent losses as the latest indications are that theresa may has enough support to win tonight's no confidence vote. investors also very focussed on the latest twist in the trade row between china and the us, after conciliatory comments from president trump. sarah hewin, chief economist, europe and americas for standard chartered. thank you forjoining us. talk me through at the pound has been doing. fundamentally has recovered losses we have seen over the past few days. that is right. when the rumours emerged there was going to be a

leadership challenge confidence vote, then we saw the pound falling quite dramatically last night. this morning when the confidence vote was confirmed, the pound reached its wea kest confirmed, the pound reached its weakest points since april 2017. since then we have seen the pound strengthening and that seems to be as the day has gone on and more mps have shown that they will vote for theresa may. the pound has taken some relief in that and we have seen a recovery. people in the city fundamentally, we have been saying this all day, people in the city, what they want to see is fundamentally a theresa may victory because they want to see continuity, don't they? what has happened is that whenever we have seen the risks of no deal brexit emerged, then the pound has ta ken of no deal brexit emerged, then the pound has taken a hit. so i think markets are most concerned that the uk could leave on the 29th of march

without a deal in place many people think will be damaging for the economy and women get that sort of news than the pound suppers. so there is some relief in the fact that if theresa may wins she will be trying to get some assurances from brussels and the deal but she has agreed with brussels has something ofa agreed with brussels has something of a chance of actually getting through parliament when it is presented for a meaningful vote. often it is difficult to look past this. it is important to point out that although brexit is a big deal for us what the wider, global markets are worried about is not particular is happening here but what is happening with the big trade row between china and the us. the trade wars between the us and china have dominated the second half of this year. we have seen that reflected in currency markets around the world, in stock markets of course, the chinese stock market sold off very badly in the summer and autumn. and the us has been seen

as something of a safe haven. there are broader considerations. i have to say i think brexit does have the potential for having repercussions around the world but if we move towards a no deal we have seen that sort of news can affect the value of the euro, for example, and may make the euro, for example, and may make the dollar seem more attractive as something of a safe haven. if we do get theresa may winning the no—confidence vote, what do you predict will happen to the pound and the wider markets when they reopen tomorrow morning? i think there will be something of a relief rally. the issueis be something of a relief rally. the issue is that we mail ready be seeing that reflected in the current level of the pound. markets tend to anticipate the news rather than react to the news as it emerges. i think if there is an outcome, that the numbers seem to suggest she has a good chance of surviving the confidence vote. there may be more

than upside for the pound was contrast against expectation she does lose the vote of confidence and we are into a leadership challenge. the fact that that could be quite long drawn—out take three christmas into january next year would likely be somewhat damaging for the pound. 0k. be somewhat damaging for the pound. ok. good to get your point of view from the city. thank you very much. let's ta ke from the city. thank you very much. let's take you through those figures before we go. it looks like it is going to maintain those gains we have seen throughout the day and closed the day up around 1%. at one point was up1.3%. closed the day up around 1%. at one point was up 1.3%. basically it has had a good run of it today. against the euro and the dollar the pound has been regaining losses we saw over the past few days. that is all the business news for me. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav danoas. it isa it is a battle of air masses this

week. the returned to overnight frost. the area of low pressure will continue to fight back and eventually looks like it will win out for the weekend bringing wet and windy weather with significant snow over the hills. we end the day with a largely fine note thanks to the area of high pressure. you'll be quite cool. the weather front in the west will bring patchy rain to northern ireland and maybe around the coast. the chilly night to come. you could see a touch of frost in places. most places between one and 4 degrees. this is the pressure chart into thursday. i pressure dominating the scene. we will see tightening of the isobars drawing in cold air of the near continent but also one fairly strong winds and we all feel colder for all areas. you conceivably colours across the uk. the similar story where much of the country will be largely dry with variable cloud and good spells of

the weather front will continue to linger across northern ireland and the west of wales. elsewhere largely dry apart from a few north sea coast showers. the wind will mean it is a breezy day with temperatures around five to 8 degrees. it will feel much colder, perhaps feeling more like freezing or 1 degrees colder, perhaps feeling more like freezing or1 degrees in one or two places despite the sunshine. on into friday a similar story. i pressure is dominating the scene but it will be cold with a strong east, south east wind. good sunny spells around. the low pressure system, the weather front, will be increasing input of looks like it'll be a wet day for northern ireland and the chilly feel with temperatures lower than this. i will show you the pressure chart to end the week. towards the weekend looks like an area of low pressure will fight back. as it bumps into the cold air you will see transient heavy snow. you can seal windy and

wet feature across southern parts of the country. for the weekend it will bea the country. for the weekend it will be a mixed bag. it looks unsettled, wet and windy for some with the risk of heavy snow across the northern hills. stay tuned for the forecasts. we're live at westminster, with a bbc news special, as prime minister theresa may fights for her political survival. earlier today, mrs may emerged from downing street following the news that she faced a confidence vote among conservative mps. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone, i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister, and i stand ready to finish the job. letters of no confidence in the prime minister were submitted by at least 48 conservative mps — thereby triggering the vote — which starts in one hour's time. a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm..

we will provide the result as soon as we can. inside the palace of westminster, very shortly, the prime minister