we're live at westminster, with a bbc news special, as prime minister theresa may fights for her political survival. earlier today, mrs may emerged from downing street following the news that she faced a confidence vote among conservative mps. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone, i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister, and i stand ready to finish the job. letters of no confidence in the prime minister were submitted by at least 48 conservative mps — thereby triggering the vote — which starts in one hour's time. a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm.. we will provide the result as soon as we can. inside the palace of westminster, very shortly, the prime minister will address hundreds of conservative mps before the voting gets underway. that's all to come, the voting starts in an hour's time,

we'll have all the latest here at westminster, on bbc news. it's 5 o'clock. we're live at westminster where the prime minister is fighting for her political survival. theresa may will face a confidence vote among conservative mps within the hour and the result is expected at just after 8 o'clock tonight. this morning, outside number ten downing street, mrs may struck a defiant note, saying she would contest the vote with everything she had and warned that any new leader would still be faced with the choice of "delaying or even stopping brexit." we'll have all the latest developments for you as conservative mps are meeting right now — ahead of the vote — and they'll be addressed by the prime minister. before we talk to our first guest, a look at the numbers

and a quick reminder that there are 315 conservative mps deciding the prime minister's fate. the prime minister needs the backing of a majority of tory mps to win. at the start of the day that meant she needed 158 votes but now it's 159 because it's been decided suspended mp andrew griffiths is allowed to vote. if she does win, she cannot be challenged in this way for another year. but if she loses then what is likely to happen? there would be a leadership contest, which would not include mrs may, though she would remain as prime minister until a replacement was found. conservative mps would eventually choose two candidates, who'd be put to a vote of party members around the uk and they'd take part in debates during that process. if there's only one candidate, then that person becomes the new conservative leader, with no need for a vote

among party members. is the winner of any conservative leadership contest would also be expected to become the new prime minister. but this entire process could take several weeks, leaving the brexit process even more uncertain — a warning delivered by theresa may and several cabinet colleagues. a leadership contest could delay the big parliamentary vote on the brexit plan even further, potentially risking the future of the entrire project. the conservative backbench 1922 committee meeting is just getting underway. before she attends, the energy minister, claire perryjoins us. thank you forjoining us, what is the message to your colleagues from you today? back the prime minister. we have is deal, we understand it

is, it was going to be tricky to get a deal that satisfied everybody, she has worked her sock socks off to get us has worked her sock socks off to get us where we are, i think it would be both seen as an act of self indulgence to go to a leadership contest now. we have a leader, who can get us through the process. time and again we have spoken to some of your colleague, those who are not happy, who say this is their opportunity to make their feelings felt. they have no faith in the deal oi’ felt. they have no faith in the deal or the prime minister's leadership so or the prime minister's leadership so you or the prime minister's leadership so you are or the prime minister's leadership so you are not likely to convert them? it is a moment of national interest, we need all parliamentarians together. there are factions on all benches who want different thing, the prime minister has been looking at the backstop about the concerns but we have a choice, we have a deal on the table that i think is a good deal that delivers the brexit people voted force, but preserves that economic prosperity we have worked hard to

get and the choices are we get that deal, or we run the risk, a genuine risk of no deal and you talk about the timing, we are running out of time to get this deal down, particularly if we have a the delay for a leadership contest, there are those in the houses of parliament for their own very valid reasons who don't want brexit to happen, so it seems to mow those who want a good deal should be backing this deal, but i think this is a woman who has worked tirelessly, i really can't think of anyone else in the party who could have brought to us this point. she is the right person to get us through this period. don't just listen to me, the poll, the hundreds of e—mail its have from my constituents who are saying back the prime minister. we talk about the potential damage to the prime minister's authority, would you accept that if she win, if the margin of victory is not convincing she will be really badly damaged

going on. i think these conversations, the same thing said about the referendum, you know, should we have gone with the simple majority, the she wins with a simple majority, the she wins with a simple majority she remains our leader, the important thing is to recognise there are legitimate concerns of many people, this is not a party issue, the opposition front bench who keep trying to turn this into partisan poll sicks are behaving badly. we should be trying to build a broad consensus to deliver the deal the british people voted for. you know the prime minister can win ona you know the prime minister can win on a technical majority, but she needs just for the sake of the process and the sake of her own authority she needs a bigger win. i think she has had the support of cabinet today, not only on social media but on the airwaves and in person, you saw the reaction at prime minister's questions, her colleagues, i think there is a

strong sense we want theresa may to continue to lead us through the party and the most challenging set of negotiations that any government has been asked do in peacetime. we are going to back her. what message do you expect the prime minister to give to her colleague, it is different to one she gave in downing street, what do you expect this to be saying? she came to that 22 after the 2017 election and demonstrated... who wants to work with colleague, her message is i will be your leader. she said i need your supporter to do it. now is not the time, to be distracting the country with a political process. would you expect the prime minister to signal that she might not be fighting the next election, would that help her case? again i think that help her case? again i think thatis that help her case? again i think that is premature, if that is something she says that may satisfy

something she says that may satisfy some people, i don't want to get to that point. i want to focus on the brexit process, this is is not a game. this is the most important thing we have had to do. we have to do it right for the sake of the next generation and the jobs in do it right for the sake of the next generation and thejobs in my constituency, there may be questions about that but i am focussed on the here and now, keeping our prime minister and getting the brexit deal threw. very good of you to join us. she subpoena straight off to that meeting, to see what the prime minister's got say to mps, a very important contribution from the prime minister, given the proximity to this vote which starts in less than an hour's time. the voting time around two hour, and then they will count the votes quickly. i can't imagine it will take that long so we should get a result by 8.30 but let us sow should get a result by 8.30 but let us sow what they do in terms of managing the result. today's events started this morning with the news

at least 48 conservative mps had submitted the letters triggering the vote we are talking about. 0ur political correspondent ian watson reports on the day's events so far. and just a warning, his report contains flash photgraphy. the first clue that it really was not going to be business as usual in downing street. a lot was going on under the cover of darkness. the chief whip, julian smith, who is supposed to know if the prime minister has enough support to carry on, left number ten late last night, and i spotted him again very early this morning. soon after, we confirmed that the prime minister was facing a vote of no—confidence. after dawn broke, the podium appeared. there would be a prime ministerial statement, but definitely not a resignation. and when theresa may emerged, her message to her own mps was defiant. there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the conservative party. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. a change of leadership in the conservative party now would put our country's future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone.

i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister and i stand ready to finish thejob. but the trouble is, some people want to finish her political career. watching was 0wen paterson, one of the mps who signed a letter of no—confidence. he said the so—called backstop to avoid a hard border in ireland, was unacceptable. her deal is absolutely appalling. we don't leave the customs union. i was in washington recently, we won't be able to do trade deals and the backstop is completely unacceptable and it is quite unnecessary. and some of her critics point out that under the conservative party rules, if mps don't dislodge her today, they are stuck with her beyond brexit. today was inevitable. i put my letter of no—confidence in back injuly and it is disappointing we are here, but we have to deal with it. colleagues have got to understand when they vote tonight,

if the prime minister survives, she has 12 months where she can't be challenged. so there are many, many reasons, including public trust, as to why this vote of confidence is necessary. the downing street strategy is to get as many supportive voices in front of the cameras as possible before tonight's vote. i'm absolutely sure the prime minister will win, and i think the sooner that all of this is put to bed and the sooner that we unite behind the prime minister, the better for the country. there'sjust something too gleeful about some of my colleagues about today. we have a seriousjob to do, we have a serious responsibility in government. what this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda, which would really not be in the interests of the british people or the british economy. and her predecessor tweeted his support, saying that any leadership contest would be a distraction. downing street will be arguing that there are already consequences from this challenge to the prime minister at a time

when she should have been negotiating with european partners. she has had to cancel a cabinet meeting today and a meeting with her irish counterpart, leo varadkar. a crucial meeting, perhaps, to try and get the reassurance some of her own mps want over the issue of the irish backstop or how to avoid a hard border on the island of ireland. questions to the prime minister... one thing in her schedule that wasn't cancelled was prime minister's questions. she had sidestepped a vote on her deal this week, butjeremy corbyn urged her to give mps a say. the time for dithering and delay by this government is over. the prime minister has negotiated her deal, she has told us it is the best and only deal available. there can be no more excuses, 110 more running away. put it before parliament and let's have the vote. he should be honest with people. he should be honest with people about his position. he couldn't care less about brexit. what he wants to do is bring down the government, create uncertainty, sow division and crash our economy. the biggest threat to people and this country isn't leaving the eu, it is a corbyn government. and the snp went further in their criticisms of the prime minister. the tory party is in chaos. the prime minister is a disgrace with her actions. the reality is that people across scotland and the uk are seeing this today.

prime minister, take responsibility, do the right thing, resign. theresa may's day didn't get any better after pmqs, because right now, she's having to effectively reapply for her ownjob. talking to mps in what is called the backbench 1922 committee. at 6.00 they vote on her future a secret ballot. if more than half her parliamentary party, 158 mps, vote against her she will have to step aside and a leadership contest begins. the prime minister's argument is that a change of leader could take so long, brexit may have to be postponed. but today, she had to postpone her own entry into parliament when the gates didn't open. some of her mps want her kept out of office permanently. ian watson, bbc news, westminster. they want a guarantee she won't call

an early election. it is not clear if she is able to deliver on those demands. the prime minister's argument is that a change of leader could take so long brexit may have to be postponed but today she had to postpone her own entry to the parliament when the gates didn't open. some of her own mps want her kept out of office, permly. —— permanently. ian watson, bbc news, westminster. i'm joined by the chair of the common‘s brexit committee — labour mp hilary benn. thank you forjoining us. good evening. so from an opposition point of view, this is a golden opportunity, isn't it, what is going on today. well, this is the further stage in the tory party convulsing and arguing and bringing the bitter knobs the surface over the question of europe, now it is their problem but it does impact upon the nation,

ata but it does impact upon the nation, at a crucial time of crisis when we are heading towards the end of march and we still don't know what kind of agreement there is going to be, and how we are going to navigate our way through it in a way that does not damage the country, and the economy, soa damage the country, and the economy, so a lot rests on the decision that will be made by conservative party tonight, although i would like to have a change of government and a different prime minister. for the the moment we have the one we have and we will find out whether she is going to remain in a post. what is your sense of the kind of margin, if you like, of victory that the prime minister, that a prime minister of any party in this p red ictlet minister of any party in this predictlet would need to have to say it's a convincing win what is your sense of that? depends on your definition of reasonable, but i don't quite understand why those who have called this, what in the end they are hoping to achieve. the problem for the brexiteers who have

been unhappy with the government's plan, i oppose it but for other reason, they don't have a plan for brexit. and in any party if you going to change... a managed no deal they are talking about. what is a managed no deal when it is at home? it ita managed no deal when it is at home? it it a canada brexit, a managed wto brexit, it is a slam the door and shout over your shoulder don't forget the money, none of us have any idea, it was striking that when borisjohnson spoke last week, the emptiness of any plan he may have had was exposed by questioning from his own side, of his own party and i think that shows why the conservatives are in such a mess and i don't think they should be leading the country through this important process , the country through this important process, but that depends on there being an election. do you think the pressure on the government could be even greater, because some people are saying that labour should be

stepping up and calling for a vote of no confidence to put maximum pressure on mrs may and the cabinet. what is your view? i think there is a time for doing that, i have been of the view when the prime minister loses the vote on her deal, despite her earths yesterday and she said in the house will will be further discussion, a bit of paper waves over here is not going to trump the words in the legal treaty many are unhappy about. i think that would probably be the moment. moment. now if there is the possibility a change all well and good, i think that would be in national interest not just for brexit but if there is not going to be an election we continue front a chose. either government thinks we are looking for a shot.er brexit which we have talked about before. we are probably looking at taking the issue back to the people. it would not surprise my if the

prime minister were to say my deal has been defeated i still think it's the right deal and i am going to put it to the country in a referendum and off we go in deciding what the question or questions are, because increasingly it is hard the see how this is going to be resolved otherwise and maybe the people will have to have the final say. that would be an immensely provocative thing to do. that is true, and it depends what question or questions would be on the ballot paper and the dilemma, the prime minister says my deals on there, there would be a move put remain on there would be a move put remain on the ballot paper but the question of this brexit, a lot of mps will say what is this thing in members of public would say what is the managed wto brexit? has anybody got a plan, do we know what will happen to all of the things that will be affected

if we leave without a deal. we have been take eing evidence on this in the select committee for a long time and that really is a step into the unknown and would be damaging we know for the economy, how can you put on the ballot paper, the question will be put, a proposition which no—one can ereally explain, on the other hand you ask a question about the perceived validity of a referendum in those circumstances, if we get to that point we will have to grapple with it in the house of commons. the prime minister is probably add stressing conservative mps now, do you think she will still be prime minister latest tonight. for one or two conversations, i think she probably will survive, the vote of no confidence but other predictions haven't been proved to be correct in the whole brexit business but we will find out soon enough. the prime minister's future

is in question as conservative mps prepare to vote on her leadership of the party letters of no confidence in the prime minister were submitted by at least 48 conservative mps, triggering the vote which starts in an hour's time. inside the palace of westminster, the prime minister is addressing hundreds of conservative mps before voting gets under way this confidence vote if theresa may, 40 this confidence vote if theresa may, a0 minutes to go, let us take stock with our europe reporter in brussels. we will get reaction to what is going on today. first vicky

young our chief political comment theyin young our chief political comment they in the houses of parliament. what is the mood, what have you been able to gauge? it is interesting, theresa may has gone into that room, it is customary to have desk banging, there has been some, although some saying it is maybe not as loud as she might like, and also i have to say, i bumped into one of her team, on the way up there, and they were more nervous than i expectedings having seen that public tally that we have been doing of tory mps saying they are going to be voted for her, it is up about 180. 180. downing street not as confident as you might expect. that could of course be expectation management but i think their worry is that the number of those against her is so high that looking ahead, everyone if she were to get that deal through parliament they have a lot of legislation to get through and you cannot do that, if you have got a

very very restless fractious party willing to go against you, all though they are saying they are confident, they must still be very concerned unthey‘ll get that final result. i know the numbers are tricky, but with 315 conservative mps, what would be a good result for the prime minister, 200 plus, a good result for her? it would, you say that, that means an awful lot like her own party don't want her to be their own leader, if you have 100 people voting against you you would probably backbench forced to go and probably backbench forced to go and probably look back under different rules but sometimes the leader might survive on the night but the pressure becomes so great they can't carry on. other the other side there are ministers who say if we she can get there this and wins with a accident amount by hind her it gives her more room for manoeuvre, it means she is for a year not able to

be challenged this in particular way, but it dent solve how she gets that deal through parliament. that is still a huge problem for her. her. her spokesman said she does not regard this vote as telling us about anything about who leads the party into the next general election, she has probably been forced to say i am not planning to take the party into the next general election because there are many mps who feel they are in this mess now because of her decision to go to the country and loss that majority for the conservatives which means she is dependent on the dup who she zeedget to be winning round. that means there are many problems ahead unless she reaches out across the house of commons and tries to bring in others from other parties which causes turmoil in her own party. all of this, after a day of pretty much

unprecedented showing of support, right across the cabinet, members have been on every conceoable media outlet, telling their colleagues to back the prime minister prime minister and yet there is a big degree of uncertainty round the level of support. yes, that is partly because think think not eve ryo ne partly because think think not everyone is telling the truth. we have had one conservative mp saying that he is pretty irritated because you know e lots of people are saying you know e lots of people are saying you have to support the prime minister but he said the same people in some cases are coming up and trying to gauge the support they might have, if there is a leadership contest, and i think that is the problem for the prime minister, yes, this could buy her a little more time but if it comes to long—term stability she can't be sure of that. it will be about her brexit policy and whether she has enough people who will back her on that, there is no doubt there is stilljostling for position because if she is going to make it may be clearer in this

meeting, that she is not going to go into the next election, we know what happens, immediately any authority you might have had does start to fade away more us because people think you are going to be out of the door pretty soon. if there are reports coming out of it we will be back with you trailing away. in brussels, let us talk to our reporter adam flight mh17ing who is keeping tab ones reaction there. what is the perception there of what is going on in westminster? nobody is going on in westminster? nobody is saying anything on the record, in public, the eu institutions and the other leaders do not want to get involved in a british domestic political situation, they certainly don't want to make things worse for theresa may, in case that makes it harder to get the brexit deal through the british parliament. in private know, officials cannot stop talking about it and they think that theresa may is going to win tonight. imean theresa may is going to win tonight. i mean that is based partly on the bbc and others calculations about how many pledges of support have

been made by mp, at the moment. and they say the same three things over and over again. number one, they say the same three things over and overagain. number one, this they say the same three things over and over again. number one, this is not theresa may's deal, this is the uk's deal, the uk government, the cabinet has signed up to this last month, so it is not about her personally, number two the deal is the deal this is is the eu's best offer. legally and politically this is as far as they can go when it comes to the brexit deal so a new change of personnel wouldn't necessarily mean there is a belter deal on offer and the third thing they say, is again, the problem is not a personal political one with theresa may and who is in charge, it is the fact that the house of commons parliament, is divided on what it wants from brexit. and if i am honest the attention isn't on the committee corridor here, it is on the meeting rooms tomorrow where eu leaders will sit down for a summit at 3.00 brussels time, the working assumption is that theresa may will

be here, as the british prime minister and not a british prime minister and not a british prime minister who is facing the exit door but the british prime minister who still has the job of taking the brexit deal through parliament. that brexit deal through parliament. that brexit deal, again, which has been the subject of so much debate, what is adjustable, what is adjustable or renegeably in that deal? again, the line from brussels has been consistent on that. yes we heard angela merkel saying the same thing depends which is the deal is the only one on the table. and people's focus is on the summit tomorrow and what theresa may is going to ask for, because she said publicly she wants assurances from the eu that will reassure the house of commons that the backstop, the back up plan to avoid a hard border on northern ireland, on the island of ireland is not the preferred outcomele, that is where fish officials are looking at. they are not looking at legally binding guarantees that will tinker with the backstop in any way, they say the

legally binding thing is the withdrawal agreement. what they are looking at is some kind of form of words that would highlight the good bits of the with call agreement and the political declaration on the future relationship. the bits of those two document that highlight and specify and say that the backstop is no—one's referred option and everyone's referred option is a really good future relationship deal that does not mean you need the backstop. that is not a legally bindinged by of treaty text or protocol, that could be a document spelling out what you the eu has been saying all along. thank you for that. ina that. in a momentarily be talking to lord heseltine. i want to go back to sick vicki young for a quick update on what the prime minister has been saying. yes there are some words coming out from ta meeting from those who were inside, and as we we re those who were inside, and as we were talking about earlier, the suggestion that she did not regard this vote tonight as who i was going

to lead the party into the next general election, it seems she has told people in the room, she has told people in the room, she has told those mps she won't be leader at the next election. she said she wa nted at the next election. she said she wanted to lead the party into the next election but she said this vote today was for her leadership now, not then, not in future, i think she has felt she has had to give that assurance to mp, in order to get them to back her tonight, she has had to make it clear she does not intend to go to the next general election, as their leader, what is not quite clear, is if there were to bea not quite clear, is if there were to be a general election before the next one, 2022, would she actually stand down and not lead them then, thatis stand down and not lead them then, that is not so clear but we will see if that has done the trick for her when get the result. with me is lord heseltine. the prime minister signalling to colleagues

who are not happy with her leadership that she may not be around at the time of the next election. is this what you need is to do to get through this? she has already fought one election and lost the tories a majority, babel never give her the chance to do it again. she is spelling out the obvious. she is in trouble. notjust this leadership challenge, my instinct as she will win this, but that is not the issue. the issue is whether she has the authority as prime minister to command a majority in the house of commons. she ran away from that, she did not. but the fact remains that nothing has changed. the deal is there. that is the only deal and thatis is there. that is the only deal and that is not going to the house of commons. is there any prospect that the prime minister can get some collea g u es the prime minister can get some colleagues on board in sufficient numbers? how? look at the numbers,

the number of people who have resigned, are they going to vote for her ystrad mac are the brexiteers going to resign? —— are they going to vote for her? it does not add up. which leaves us where? it leaves us, the frightening thing, its knees as with the christmas recess, when this place, which is the only place that can take decisions, is off for turkey and mince pies. i hope that members of parliament will not put up members of parliament will not put up with that and wilson plea say, we are not just up with that and wilson plea say, we are notjust going to relax and enjoy ourselves when there is enormous and very dangerous cloud hanging over the future of the british economy and the british people. in practical terms british economy and the british people. in practicalterms what british economy and the british people. in practical terms what does that mean for parliament? what does it need to be doing richard mark the first thing is that the labour party must get off its ludicrous posture

of calling for a general election. they will not get a general election. but it enables them to say we need a general election therefore we need a general election therefore we do not need to talk about substantive issues. that is hypocrisy. the labour party has got to come clean on the issue. my guess is that they will vote against the deal along with all the other parties. that then leaves the issue, what is parliament going to do? it is difficult to see how this prime minister can conjure up some alternative strategy. therefore you have the frightening prospect of zero deal. my own guess is that parliament will not allow that to happen. there will be a coming together of sanity, frankly. i think thatjohn major made a reported intervention earlier this week when he said that article 50 needs to be withdrawn because we cannot act in a panic, a stampede, at the last

moment. if parliament does rise for the recess, we will seek parliament comeback, perhaps a fortnight before the deadline. in those circumstances would you agree with what hilary benn was telling us which is that he can see now a rather clearer path towards a potential second vote, potential second referendum ?|j towards a potential second vote, potential second referendum? i call for a second referendum two days after the last one because i never thought this thing would actually get through. no one knew what they we re get through. no one knew what they were doing. the most evident demonstration of that is that no one here knew what was happening. the cabinets doesn't even agree today what is happening so how could the public know two years ago? now it is much clearer and the evidence is there, the economic forecasts are there. my own view, that we need time, we need to clear out of the

way this fall that is not going to win and we need to see to the people, we know something about the fa cts , people, we know something about the facts, it is up to you, make a decision. is the prime minister, who is implacably opposed to this, and a position to offer that as an option or not? the prime minister has a problem. she told us in the referendum that our national interest was to remain. now she says our national interest is to leave. there is no other deal. the fact of the matter is the only deal she has on the table is not on offer, it is not going to work. she is now really standing for no deal. that is a horrific prospect so i think it has to go back to the people. a final thought on today's events. you expect the premature to win the sport. do you expect given what you know of conservative backbenchers and ministers for that margin to be

co mforta ble and ministers for that margin to be comfortable for the prime minister or not? it is difficult to know. many people have said in interviews they never quite know the way you will vote. i suspect that they vote against will be of significant scale that anyone observing, i am thinking particularly of the other 27 nations of europe, will see this prime minister does not have the authority of the prime minister. we will see what happens later tonight. thank you. lord heseltine, former conservative deputy prime minister, with his thoughts on this process. theresa may is still in the room with the conservative mps trying to convince them before the voting starts, this vote of confidence, that gets under way in 25 and it's

time. what do people beyond westminster think of the attempt to challenge theresa may. voters in worcester doted leave in the referendum and elected a conservative mp last year. —— footed leave. to these may need supporting. i am not happy with people's attitude. she needs support. she was forced into the job through david cameron. give her a chance. who else is going to do give her a chance. who else is going todoa give her a chance. who else is going to do a betterjob? i do not know. i do not think some of the potential new readers who are going to put themselves forward for the conservative party, they would not

get my vote. i am not going to name names. name names. they rather tall, blond gentleman. this person has been a jeweller in the city for 25 yea rs been a jeweller in the city for 25 years and beat jewellery for margaret thatcher, but as a staunch conservative says now is not the time to change leaders. they should have supported her from the start instead of maybe doing for their own good rather than supporting her and what she has negotiated. to come up with at the last minute and not give her support, ifind with at the last minute and not give her support, i find very weak and wea k her support, i find very weak and weak now needs to stick together and get on with that. the tory majority was cat here in worcester at the last general election but it remains a conservative city in a conservative county. many people remain loyal to the prime minister but for others it is a welcome opportunity for a shake—up. some people on this ancient street think thatis people on this ancient street think that is long overdue. it is time to

get rid of the entire conservative party. they have shown that they are not together. some think they can do together —— do better, but now we are going to miss the deadline for next march. it is a mess all round. the british people deserve better than that. there are still those on the streets here and across the country who see they just wants to get on with brexit stop before that date may be about to witness the death of a junior. —— death of a career. i am at the brexit editor of the daily telegraph and deputy particle editor of the times. what is going on in the committee corridor? theresa may has been addressing the parliamentary party. this is the moment that one tory mp described as the big show of affection for those who are going to

sta b affection for those who are going to stab her in the back, get to pretend that they are being loyal. 0ne stab her in the back, get to pretend that they are being loyal. one of the cutie as things about a tory leadership election is that tory mps seem to revel in this idea that they are the most and trustworthy electorate is known to man. they do not see it as a stain on their honour, they revel in that they say one thing in public and another in by that. one person said the new of five ministers who would publicly backed theresa may and privately vote no confidence that it does look like theresa may is on course for victory. public statements are overwhelmingly in her favour. victory. public statements are overwhelmingly in herfavour. the number of people who are publicly saying they will vote against her art in 30s. they would need to reach 159. tory mps take pleasure in lying, they have said that all day, but it is such a large margin, i expect her to be in office until the end of today. so many times we have

students year and said this has got to be crunch time. this is the last week that she can be in power. and she comes back and she is always there. i agree with everything that sam said. i have not met anybody who thinks there is a chance that theresa may might lose this. that margin would be narrow. i do not know whether sam agrees with that. i think a lot of people were publicly saying they will be loyal, they might not turn out to be quite so loyal because it is a secret ballot but i think we will be here next week talking about her as prime minister. the margin surely is significant because we are talking about the prime minister containing damage caused by this process, that margin needs to be quite respectable? the margin matters. but so long as she winds that is also important. that margin is not going to be the most important thing at the end of today. a lot of important

things have happened today. whether she winds or not outright, she will cling on whatever happens. the next thing is her announcement to the 1922 committee just now, foreshadowed earlier that she will not fight the next election. some people might say that was going to be the case anybody. for those that wa nt be the case anybody. for those that want that there is a unilateral exit route for her before the next election. the third thing, i think this at the end of the day will be most significant, you can only pull this trigger once a year. they have pulled it and it has turned out that the gun is loaded with a blank and that will change the electoral arithmetic in the cabinet and the governments because for the last two and a half years theresa may has been looking over her shoulder at brexiteers feeling that if she did something to cross party or that indicated that she was going for something slightly softer as a

brexit that own party might comfort her. they have come for her and failed to get her, that gives her more political space, i know people in her cabinet who are seeking perhaps to exploit that as as next week. even if the margin is quite small? it will be something as she manages to cling on. if you think about it, she now goes to the eu council and she asks for a better deal, will her authority not have been considerably diminished? she still cannot promise to them that whatever deal they offered to her she can get through parliament, no matter how many people vote for her to be prime minister, they are not going to vote for her to get this deal through. what happens then? what sort of authority is she left that even if she does not leave office? i suspect these are

questions we will come to tonight, and we will see what the margin is. thank you. and we will talk a little more, later. earliertoday, the prime minister emerging in downing street pledging to fight for the leadership with everything she had. speaking outside number ten this morning. there is flashed the geography coming up. let us remind ourselves of what the prime minister said. there will now be able on my leadership of the conservative party, i will contest that with everything i have got. i have served the conservative party as activist, counsellor, np, home secretary, and now as prime minister. i stood to be read because i believe in the

conservative vision for a better future, a thriving economy, with no where and nobody left behind. a stronger society where everyone can make the most of their talents. always serving the national interest. at this crucial moment in our history, that means securing a brexit deal that delivers on the result of the eu referendum. taking back control of our borders, laws and money, but protecting jobs, security, and our precious union, as we do so. through good times and bad over the last two years my passionate belief that such a deal is attainable, that a bright future lies as for my country has not wavered and it is now with in our grasp. i spent yesterday beating angela merkel, donald tusk, to address concerns that mps have with the backstop and we are making

progress. i was set to travel to dublin this afternoon to continue that work but will now remain year in london to make the case for my leadership with my parliamentary collea g u es leadership with my parliamentary colleagues stopped a change of leadership in the conservative party now would put our country's future at risk and three and certainty when we can least afford it. a new leader would not be in place by 21st of january legal deadline saw a leadership election risks handing control of brexit negotiations to opposition mps in parliament. the new leader would not have time to renegotiate a withdrawal agreement and get legislation through parliament by 29th of march saw one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping brexit, when people want us to get on that. and a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation or the parliamentary arithmetic. weeks spent tearing ourselves apart would create more

divisionjust as we ourselves apart would create more division just as we should be standing together to serve our country. none of that would be in the national interest. the only people whose interests would be served ourjeremy corbyn and john mcdonnell. the british people want us mcdonnell. the british people want us to get on with it and they want us us to get on with it and they want us to get on with it and they want us to focus on the other vital issues that matter to them also. building a stronger economy, delivering first—class public services and the homes that families need. these are the priorities of the public and they must be the priorities of the conservative party also. we must and we shall deliver on the referendum vote and seize the opportunities that lie ahead. but the conservatives must not be a single issue party. we are a party of the entire nation. moderate, pragmatic, mainstream. committed to reuniting our country and building a country that works for everyone. the agenda i set out in my first speech

outside this front door, delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone, i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister. and i stand ready to finish the job. the prime minister in downing street earlier today making that announcement, responding to the news that at least a8 conservative mps had submitted the letter of no confidence. that vote will take place this evening, it will take place this evening, it will take place in less than 15 minutes, it will go on for two hours, let us look at the houses of parliament from across the river, because beer we have a view of the windows of the committee rooms that stretch along the palace of westminster, this glorious building, there we have the lights on in committee room 1a. this

is the room where the conservative backbench committee, the 1922 committee, is meeting now. more than 300 conservative mps are packed into that room to listen to the prime minister addressed then before this vote ta kes addressed then before this vote takes place. as we have already heard the prime minister has hinted, or at least given more than a hence, that she will not be around to lead the conservative party into the next election. the wording we need to clarify that that is the kind of suggestion that has been made. we we re suggestion that has been made. we were talking to our chief postal correspondence about batley while ago and can we now shed more light on what the prime minister has been saying? that meeting has been going on for more than a0 minutes, a packed committee room. let us speak to somebody who was in that room and can hopefully give us the answer to some questions, the source attorney general. there are bits of information dripping out of that

meeting, did theresa may get some hint of her personal future, saying that she will not lead the party into the next general election in 2022? that is correct, it is not her intention to lead the party in the 2022 general election. quite rightly she is focusing on the here and now and the need for a brexit to be delivered. i will paraphrase, why drop the pilots when the ship is coming into port? she needs time and space to get on with the job that she has been doing so diligently for the past few years. that was her message. there was also a wider message. there was also a wider message about conservative values and what brings us together as a party and an acknowledgement that while the conservative issue has been a divisive issue in the conservative party, on the range of other domestic and social issues we are one united party. it was a powerful message. did she give an indication on how she intends to

deliver on that message and what sort of brexit she is going to deliver given the problems you know you have on your own site about lack of support for her own deal? she talked about the work she has been doing since monday, her visits to other european capitals and ongoing work with the eu and other member states to dry and deliver something that she talked about as having legal force to improve on the backstop in particular. i think that was an important message that was noted, i am sure, by colleagues. it isa simple noted, i am sure, by colleagues. it is a simple message, she is doing their work, give her the time to do that. i hope that's tonight collea g u es that. i hope that's tonight colleagues will allow her to do that. do you think she is going to win? ithink that. do you think she is going to win? i think she will win tonight andi win? i think she will win tonight and i hope it will be a clear margin that will not only tell the country but tell the rest of europe that this is a prime minister who has the confidence of her party and is able to conduct the negotiations the mac

that she wants to get on. thank you. we will find out in the next few minutes what sort of questioning she faced from others because some are saying she faced some tough questions from eurosceptics in her own party about preparing particularly for a no—deal brexit scenario. thank you. we will be back soon as we have some more words there. with me outside the palace of westminster we have the director of an independent think tank, the institute of governments. what is your reading of today's events so farand your reading of today's events so far and how does this leadership election, however it aims, impact upon the process of government itself? it is destabilising surely? it is. the george the conservative mps are now taking will thrust the country on one of these two routes. evenif country on one of these two routes. even if she wins byjust a feudal she might to carry on. it carries

on. she tries to put together a deal. get a few more concessions from europe and tries to get a deal that parliament will back. it does not mean parliament will back it. if she does not when we are into a more uncertain future. the party would then be trying to pick another leader. that could take perhaps six weeks which puts it passed key deadlines in the middle ofjanuary. who would that leader be? it is very likely that many of the people who put themselves up with express themselves as brexiteers, at least in favour of keeping on the process, the question is whether the person who emerge would be in favour of no deal. it is possible then that we are on a course towards a potential ha rd are on a course towards a potential hard brexit. plenty to talk about in both scenarios. the first one, the

prime minister stays and tries to get support for the deal, and as we heard for lord heseltine, there is no suggestion that even with concessions there is a majority in parliament for this deal as it stands, what then? whether people's minds might change. there is not a lot of reason to think that but they might because the clock is still ticking and the prospect of no deal gets closer, it is possible but with more time she could get some of them to come over. it is possible she could get useful concessions from europe but not a lot of hope for that, as will be cosmetic. the most contested issue, the backstop for ireland. whether support begins to emerge, pressure for a second referendum, this sort of thing. what is your sense of that? we have heard more about this in the last couple of weeks. even if you weeks ago, mps we re of weeks. even if you weeks ago, mps were saying, norway, now some are

saying this may be the only way ahead. what would be the process for the prime minister who has been implacably opposed to the idea of a second referendum, what could lead to that? lots of people cannot see a clear pa rt to that? lots of people cannot see a clear part to that? it is very hard to see it with theresa may there as prime minister because she has a post that sort firmly but the retired to beat the clear emergence ofa retired to beat the clear emergence of a majority for that both within her own party and with labour, and people beginning to see this is the only thing that we can get support for, we cannot get support for a deal, this is what we can get support for. fascinating. we could talk all night. thank you. let us go back into the houses of parliament and speak to our correspondent again. just a few minutes before the vote gets under way in five minutes' time, what is your sense of it now?

iam your sense of it now? i am surprised about how nervous sam and her team are. that could just be that you would always be nervous but i think they are worried about the longer term, if there are dozens of tory in peaceful peers to vote against her in this scenario how on earth can they get legislation through parliament, and controversial legislation? 0ne tory mp said she will not fight into the next election. she said that two mps, reassuring them. she has recognised that. that could be the place that be required to back her. but a tory mp said the question is whether the party is capable of being led. just very quickly, a sense of people coming out, any signals you have picked up from people in merging? it really is just about this fact that she has had to very much say she will not lead the party into 2022. she said she will stand down

as prime minister and recognise there are many people who are not happy with that leadership, it is still not clear how she thinks she will get her brexit deal through the houses of parliament. many thanks. we will talk to you later as the vote gets under way. we will have all the latest developments as conservative mps ta ke developments as conservative mps take on that thought in the house of commons. we will have 1a on the prime minister, just starting in the next few minutes, we will have it all on the bbc news. at have passed eight we will have a special programme, starting on bbc 0ne, special programme, starting on bbc one, with my colleague andrew neilson, watching the confidence vote as it unfolds. in the meantime, let us catch up with the weather. it has been a benign week so far but the last few days of this week are

set to turn colder. we will have a strong south—easterly wind. most places should be largely drive. rain continuing to push on from the west. low— pressure continuing to push on from the west. low—pressure anchored out to the west of the uk, high pressure over scandinavia, this is drawing a year from the south. the rest of this evening overnight, mainly dry, clear spells in places. that will lead to a patchy frost in some occasions. showers in some coastal parts, wintry over high ground. thicker cloud and some patchy rain also likely across the extreme west of the country. this area of low pressure squeezing up against the high—pressure. that will not move at all. it will squeeze the isobars together. a stronger easterly and south—easterly wind, that will be noticeable. a lot of dry weather,

quite a bit of sunshine also. more than we had to be. showers across eastern areas, particularly north—east scotland. thicker cloud in northern ireland, is the odd spot of rain. add on the strength of the south—east wind and it could feel quite roll. temperatures will feel around freezing. thursday night, clear skies, cold a year, it will turn quite cold. a feeling widespread frost through central and western parts, particularly out of town. not so cold across the east coast. it means friday starting off ona coast. it means friday starting off on a frosty zero. all change friday night. this area of low pressure

sta rts night. this area of low pressure starts to push across the country. we are likely to see some transient snow. not exclusively on high ground, fora time snow. not exclusively on high ground, for a time going to lower levels before milder here begins to sweep through and we will see it turn back to rain. quite a lot going on by this weekend. there could be some disruption from this and also stay tuned to the forecast. this programme contains scenes of repetitive flashing images. tonight the prime minister's fate is being decided. conservative mps have just begun voting on whether she should stay or go. in the last hour theresa may has addressed tory mps at a highly emotional, private meeting. she told them she's dertermined to deliver brexit but would not lead the conservative party into the next general election. this morning as news broke of the leadership challenge the prime minister spoke to the nation and vowed to fight on and secure brexit. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone, i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister

and i stand ready to finish the job. tension, division and uncertainty in westminster tonight as theresa may's leadership is under intense pressure. theresa may spent weeks and weeks telling us this is the best deal