this is bbc news. the prime minister's fate is being decided right now — conservative mps are an hour into voting on whether she should stay or go. theresa may addressed tory mps at a private meeting in these chambers an hour ago — she promised whatever happens she would not lead them into the next general election this morning, as news broke of the leadership challenge — the prime minister spoke to the nation and vowed to fight on and deliver brexit. delivering the brexit people voted for, building a country that works for everyone, i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister and i stand ready to finish thejob. tension, division and uncertainty in westminster tonight — as theresa may's leadership hangs in the balance. theresa may spent weeks and weeks telling us this is the best deal she could possibly get. she has no credibility left in the house, she has no credibility left in the country and she has no credibility left with the european union as a negotiator. and with brexit just

over three months away — we'll be asking what this means for the country's plans to leave the european union. good evening from an extraordinary day here in london, where conservative members of parliament are deciding the fate of prime minister theresa may. this morning at least 48 of them called for a leadership challenge to be held. as the news broke, the prime minister stood defiant in downing street and vowed to fight efforts to remove her with everything she's got. she warned that a change of prime minister would put the uk's future at risk and could delay or even halt brexit. publicly a majority of tory mps have said they'll back her, but this is a secret ballot. so what happens from here? 317 conservative mps are voting on whether mrs may should stay on —

we could know the result around nine o'clock tonight. the prime minister needs 159 votes to survive. if she secures that, she's safe from any other leadership challenge for another year. but, if she looses, it will trigger a leadership contest — she cannot be a part of it and during which mrs may will remain in power until a successor is chosen. tory mps will have to pick two candidates and the new tory leader will then be elected in a postal ballot of the wider conservative party. cameras aren't allowed in the room where the ballot is taking place — but tweets like this from the conservative mp george freeman give us an insight as to what's going on. powerful & moving moment in the #i922 as the pm makes clear that she has has listened, heard & respects the will

of the party that once she has delivered an orderly brexit, she will step aside for the election of a new leader to lead the reunification & renewal we need. respect. that was the same message from that was the same message from the health secretary. our political editor, laura kuenssberg, reports on the day's dramatic events. a podium on the move, something big is about to happen. with 107 days until brexit, number ten is ready for something else. it is this man who had bad news for theresa may. after months of argument is now an actual assault on her leadership. it is for me to inform and consult with the prime minister and i did that over the telephone last night, and then to proceed with the ballot

as soon as is reasonably practical. so the prime minister has to fight her own colleagues to keep herjob. i will contest that vote with everything i've got. and at this crucial moment in our history that means securing a brexit deal that delivers on the result of the eu referendum. weeks spent tearing ourselves apart will only create more division, just as we should be standing together to serve our country. none of that would be in the national interest. i have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since i became prime minister and i stand ready to finish thejob. dozens of brexiteers want her out because of her compromise with the eu. theyjust do not like it and they want her to quit. she is effectively a prime minister who is drowning and angela merkel has been

throwing buckets of water at her. i reach the conclusion because the prime minister is unwilling to move away from a deal that does not deliver brexit, i cannot fight it and i think it is time for another leader. there are many reasons why this no—confidence vote is really necessary. we were thrown out of the discussions and she started going in a different direction. she has finished with a deal that demand so little support in the house of commons. the divisions in the tory party have turned british politics into a tourist attraction, the puzzling and puzzled public just watching on. i don't know what is going to happen. who is going to be the leader? i don't know. they should stop fighting amongst themselves. they are arguing with each other all the time. the prime minister is sweeping down to parliament for one of the most important days of her career. she has nine hours from now to persuade

her colleagues she is the person to lead the country and has earned her right to keep herjob. even today of all days her place was at the dispatch box. it seemed for a moment parliament was driving on the chaos. the prime minister was arguing for her party and the right to stay. we know one group of people who do not want to find a constructive solution, the labour party front bench. that is what we see on the other side of the chamber. no plan, no clue, no brexit. whatever happens with her conservative leadership vote today, it is utterly irrelevant to the lives of people across our country. will she now put this deal before parliament and halt this escalating crisis which is so damaging to the lives of so many people in this country? this government is a farce.

the tory party is in chaos, the prime minister is a disgrace with her actions. people across scotland and the uk are seeing this today. prime minister, take responsibility, do the right thing, resign. tellingly, none of those who want her gone got to their feet. strong words were directed at the rebels. in my constituency people have written to say the prime minister has done a fantasticjob in difficult circumstances. she has done so well. can my right honourable friend think of anything more unhelpful, irrelevant and irresponsible than for the conservative party to embark on weeks of a conservative leadership campaign? those cheers could not drown out the criticism. i have an appointment... but for once the circus

outside parliament starred apparently loyal characters. all the alternatives risk derailing brexit or risk uncertainty and chaos. i think with the prime minister we can ensure we have a united government ready to deliver. but this is chaos. this is not chaos? no. we need to back the pm and let her get on with the job and showed the country we are capable of grown—up government. when we leave in the evenings we are stepping over sleeping bodies in westminster tube station. there are so many issues for this government to tackle, yet all our energies are sapped by brexit and now an internal row. but if the prime minister stays, peace and harmony is not on the way. listen how the chance to describe some of his own side. listen how the chancellor to describe some of his own side. what today will do will flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda. extremists?

the two sides of the tories meeting in there right now have been pulling themselves apart for decades over europe. the expectation is the prime minister will survive the vote, but then what? she has one chance to get the mps on her side and those who backed her and those who want to sack her are gathering in the house of commons to listen to what she has to say. number ten is even suggesting she might tell them she will quit before the next election if she is allowed to stay in place. tonight may not be the end of theresa may's time in office, but perhaps a sell by date on her time in charge. laura kuennsberg reporting there. joining me now are henry newman, from open europe, and dr catherine haddon, from the institute for government. let us talk for those who are joining us this evening about what is going on right now, in committee

room 1a. is going on right now, in committee room 14. well, we have heard that possibly two thirds of conservative mps have already voted. voted. they have been through, ticked the box, do they have confidence in theresa may as a leader and have gone out, a lot of them back here to do news, some of them were over here and had to rush back to go and to go vote, so to rush back to go and to go vote, so we, i don't know whether they will start counting when they know that all of the mps have voted, or whether or not they will wait for that 8.00, it seems like they would get on with it. we know at the moment they are saying it won't be announced until about 9pm. theresa may will get informed before that. we have had a stream, stream of ministers out here today, we had michael gove on the lunchtime bulletin, not usual for him to be on the green so early. they have been lobbying for her in public, but in private, we don't know how they will vote. that is true. what the prime minister will be happy about is all of her ministered have come out and publicly backed her today. they are

saying that clearly. we have seen criticisms and critics, popping their heads up, speaking do your colleagues here, we haven't seen any particularly surprising, a switch, oi'i particularly surprising, a switch, on the other hand the prime minister did have this question and answer session at the 1922 committee. i spoke to one who was there, they said she looked tired and a bit chippy, so i think it is still up in the air. think is expected to win but we don't know. does it matter, the margin of victory, she only needs to win by one, but is that enough? with theresa may it may well be, because she is often right on the edge and somehow managing to keep going thrall of this. we have had managing to get through stalling the meaningful vote on monday was a big move. it could be this is enough. this is different from previous conservative conference, thatcher it was a shock she was losing control of the party, her cab

het were saying no, you have to go now, fannie mae, we have known she has had her critics, some have a big problem with her. there has been enry, a lot of plotting. while the emergency debate was going on for there were no senior figures on the frontbenches and reports of meetings in committee rooms, do you get a sense there has been a build up to this through, since the vote was pulled. we expected to see a vote of no confidence when the first round of letter, the eurosceptic research saying they were going to trigger a vote of no confidence. so number ten have been ready for it. there have been discussions whether she should announce, of course that is part of the throwing the kitchen sink strategy to give everything to this voter. we are in unusual times. the

leader of the opposition has faced no confidence votes and is still in place, they have different rules but there is no reason the prime minister can't continue in office if she wins by one vote. but as mp after manager, this does not change the math matics of what is go on. we are seeing again reports all of this happening onestier, talking about whether she has a key legal language about the backstop, because that seems to be the key issue u they wa nt to seems to be the key issue u they want to hear something more robust, we have had many times theresa may coming back, stalking about what she has got, talking about the deal and more frustration from her side as to whether or not it really mean what is they want it to, so it will be about what she brings back from europe. there is still labour's vote of no confidence. even if she wins

this tonight, when she goings to brussels in the next two days she gets something concrete that can make stave that off. labour are not keen to trigger that volt of no confidence. that might shine the spotlight on their policy and the lack of the policy about brexit. labour don't like the backstop because the backstop could be permanent as they see it. but they wa nt permanent as they see it. but they want a permanent customs union. that is ironic, they are close to what the backstop could craves. the dangerous is she would probably which but questions would be asked about what is their brexit policy. jeremy corbyn is under pressure to go for a second referendum. we saw the prime minister in question time earlier, shining the spotlight on jeremy corbyn. she won the exchange with corbyn by accusing him of trying to betray brexit. thank you. let us cross

over the road i our chief political correspondent vicki young joins us now from the house of commons. there is lot of talk with about the dup. they have been saying that a lot. it is interesting that those brexiteers in the party, the european research group, they are clearly focussing on that, and they are saying, look, this prime minister, theresa may, cannot bring the dup back in to the fold, that is their main argument for triggering this challenge against her, and that i say that is the reason they want to change the leader, because they don't think the dup can be brought back into the fold, which means that she doesn't have a majority to govern. that is, i think, she doesn't have a majority to govern. that is, ithink, the she doesn't have a majority to govern. that is, i think, the fear among lots of people, notjust the brexiteers but how the party assuming she win, how they can carry on, geta assuming she win, how they can carry on, get a deal and get through the very difficult legislation that has to pass through the house of

commons. so that is a real concern for lots of mps, regardless of tonight. tonight. most feel she is going to win this vote. many see it asa going to win this vote. many see it as a distracksion but it is interesting she felt she had to say to those mps in the room she will not lead them into the general election in 2022. i have been speaking to a minister who said he thinks and she loyal he thinks mps will want more clarification about that, exactly how long she intends to carry on in the post, whether dublining brexit, means thrifring march leaving or carrying on and being the one who oversees all the difficult negotiation about the future relationship. she has promised to do it differently. to not keep that information close to her, to get more people tojoin in and have their say in that, but you know, lots of people wonder whether she is really listening to that, and taking onboard

she is really listening to that, and taking onboa rd the she is really listening to that, and taking onboard the changes they feel she needs to make. thank you. we will come back to you later in the that was the same message from the health secretary. that is committee room 14 behind those recall, that is where they vote. next door to it is committee room 13 where at 8.00 the count will go on, and then we should get sir graham brady to come out, the chair of the committee and tell us what the result is, and we expect he will do that in front of the cameras so we will be allowed into the room for that. there is round 40 minutes left we are set to leave the european union injust over three months — on march 29th next year. time is already running out to secure a deal — but if the prime minister loses the vote of no confidence this evening, it could dramatically change the path we take. here's our deputy political editorjon pienaar.

this leadership challenge is of course happening at a critical time. here's our deputy political editorjon pienaar. they have been demonstrating here for months, rain or shine, for and against brexit. obsessed, maybe, but they are also right to feel brexit is the biggest issue facing britain in decades, bigger even than tonight's decision to keep on or to sack theresa may, to choose the leader to break the brexit deadlock. theresa may will still be facing a deeply divided house of commons, party and cabinet, still struggling to win over brexiteers who feared the brexit plan could leave britain trapped by eu rules indefinitely. some of them sit in cabinet, two of them have walked out since this was filmed. today one brexiteer warned no—deal brexit was still possible and mrs may, or another leader, had to get more concessions out of brussels or else. it is difficult to support the deal if we do not get changes to the backstop. i am not sure the cabinet will agree for it to be put to the house of commons.

among the former remainers, some want closer eu links than theresa may's. they say they are fighting against leaving without a deal. no—deal brexit is not a runner? i am clear that house of commons. no deal. the fact i think it will stop no deal does not mean we should not continue preparations just in case. no deal would be such a bad outcome for the country i believe the house of commons will certainly stop it. so far there is no sign of european leaders giving britain the kind of concessions that might win round the commons, no sign of agreeing at tomorrow's eu summit. the uk could leave eu rules in its own time on its own terms. but the german leader spoke clearly. we have no intention of changing the exit agreement, she said, that is the general position of all 27 member states.

it is unlikely we will leave these debates with any changes. today mrs may warned any leader would be short of time. the brexit timetable is tight. in the new year, before january the 21st, the delayed vote is due. if it is defeated, it must report back with the next steps within 21 days. but anything has to be agreed with the european parliament before it takes effect. on march the 29th the uk is due to leave the eu. that is the brexit is not delayed or the deadlock continues and other outcomes, like a softer brexit or a referendum, come into play. who holds the keys to number ten is always significant. but whether mrs may survives or not, however long her time in number ten is, the biggest question

of all is britain's future which still hangs in the air. were theresa may to lose here the leadership battle would start in earnest and there would be hustings here across the road over the course of the next week. conservative party would whittle those who wanted on to the next leader down to two and they would be put to the conservative membership, the grass roots so let us membership, the grass roots so let us check in with the grass let's check in with patrick duffy, he's the chair of the south west wilshire conservative association and joins us now on skype. patrick, good to you with us, tell us patrick, good to you with us, tell us straightaway do you want theresa may to hang on or not?” us straightaway do you want theresa may to hang on or not? i think as a personal view, i feel may to hang on or not? i think as a personal view, ifeel a may to hang on or not? i think as a personal view, i feel a change may to hang on or not? i think as a personal view, ifeel a change would be good, but the membership in general is very afraid of that happening, they take a huge personal responsibility for what is going on in terms of a, their role in it and ta ke in terms of a, their role in it and take it very seriously, the last thing they want top do is unsettle

everything and that seemed to be the prevailing view of the membership although not mine personally. there isa although not mine personally. there is a feeling conservative members are more brexit than remain yet you will know, does that frustrate the members? it is a huge anomaly, my own association is a firm leave voting association, and constituency, and when we see what appears to be a very dominant remain view in parliament it is very frustrating, because both major parties are there on a manifesto commitment to deliver brexit, not to stall it, not to debate it, not to slow it down but to deliver on it and that is is not what we are seeing happening at the moment. it is likely there was a contest, you would be a candidate, who would you

wa nt would be a candidate, who would you want it to be. i think you are right. it needs to be a brexit candidate if we get to that point. which i think probably looks unlikely, but it needs to be a brexit candidate and someone who in my view is able to undertake the forceful last stage of the negotiation we need to be doing. yes, very quickly, the deal, do you like the deal she has brought back? no, ithink like the deal she has brought back? no, i think the potentialfor keeping us in the eu, beyond the two yea rs, keeping us in the eu, beyond the two years, on the backstop, makes the deal and the negotiating position untenable. the sooner we vote on that and get it off the table the better. thank you patrick. here is a tweet from margotjames, a conservative mp and ministers she

says, proud to have voted in support of the prime minister. thank you to the many people who have contacted my office today and urged me to do just that. so that seems to be one in the theresa may column. there are others, we have seen one in george free man who said it was moving and a warm reshin for her in the 1922 committee today. but there was that guarantee of course, she is not going to stand at the 22 election. that really, at the urging of many of her colleagues, she will step aside for tb lickion to lead the renewal we need. frustrations at the gridlock there is in the house of commons, at the moment, over the deals so it will be interesting to get the thoughts of george freeman and the others after the vote. that will come at round 9 clock, we think

we will get the result. the ballot will be open for over 30 minute, committee room 14, where it is happening there. and and the count will be next door in committee room 13, and we are hearing that round two thirds of the conservative mps have already voted, the votes will be counted and then sir graham brady, the chair of the 1922 committee, that is the group of backbench conservative mps will come out and tell us the margin of victory, what people are been telling us all through the day publicly not necessarily what they might do in private, in a secret ballot. plenty more to come. stay with us. good evening it has been a quiet week of weather but with clearer skies it has brought a chilly feel,

it has brought lovely sunset pictures as you can see from this one from anne. now under the clearer skies it will turn cold, the british isles really is the battle ground between high pressure and frontal systems trying to push in from the atlantic, they are not making much impression, they will gradually bring a little more in the way of cloud, and a few isolated drips and drabs of rain into the far west but elsewhere it will be a coolish night with low single figures so a touch of frost not out of the question. but that is going to be the story for the next couple of day, that weather front trying to push in but the high pressure coping it at bay. plenty of isobars on the charts which means the wind direction is coming from a south—easterly, a cold sort at this time. with a breeze round, it will also feel cooler out there. a lot of dry weather, and some breaks in the cloud continuing

with sunny spells but you have to factor in the winds. notjust the winds t direction and the speed and so on your thermometer it may say four, fia, six but if you factor in the wind direction it will feel cool e probably the wouldest day. we will see showery rain but not making that much impression. the winds will fall lighter and with clearer skies the, it will fall away. temperatures will hold up above freezing but we could see a chilly start to the day on friday, the coolest start with a frost first thing in the morning but largely dry, there is that frontal system trying to push in from the west. with that cold air it could cause issues late on friday into saturday, eventually that front looks likely to win the battle. you can see as it moves we could see snow. this is

chiefly going to fall to higher ground in scotland, northern england and north wales but there is the possibility of it falling at lower levels. so you need to keep abreast of the forecast as we head into the weekend. it's half past seven here at westminster. half an hour left in the ballot, 317 mps being asked if they still have confidence in prime minister theresa may. we should have the answer shortly after half past eight. the prime minister needs 159 votes to survive, if she secures that she is safe for another year, if she loses it would trigger a leadership contest during which theresa may would remain in powerfor a short

time until they bectu candidates to be future leader of the party. —— until the pick to candidates. we are expecting graham brady to come out at around nine o'clock tonight to give us the result and then we can talk about the margin or not of the victory that theresa may has. let us speak about two people who have been watching events today. this is all christmas is coming at once for political people like you. what do you think is going on there at the moment? i believe about 8096 of conservative mps are thought to have voted, some might have done this by proxy. we have had a fascinating public tally through the day because tory mps since the starting gun of this leadership vote of no—confidence, started just after half past seven this morning,

somewhere in the region of 170 mps said they back theresa may. just under 40 said did not. that makes it would as that theresa may is almost certain to be home and strife. but the question is do we trust them? a member of the government said to me that five ministers including one in cabinet were going to see publicly they backed and in private when they got into the committee room would have fought against her. but those numbers look overwhelming. it looks like we are heading for a victory for theresa may. it could still be 100-115 for theresa may. it could still be 100—115 voting against her which would weaken her but she would still win. there she still winds by one she will cling on. i am trying to think what it must be like for those who want to vote against her because they are a minister or in cabinet of

course they have two cbi supporting her, but at the same time they are being lobbied by brexiteers, those who might be future leaders and they had to talk to them and keep them sweet as well. they will come out on tv and see how much respect they have for the prime minister about in the privacy of the voting booth they might turn out and stick the knife in. we have been standing outside the committee room earlier. it is a torrent of mps tottering around and journalists all chatting to each other. nobody seems to be talking realistically that theresa may is going to lose, they are talking about the margin by which she will win, so although it is dangerous to make predictions, that is not a conversation happening in there. does the margin matter? she has said she will carry on if she winds by just one vote, but can she really? the margin matters a bit. not as

much as the fact that she will carry on. if a large number of people come out against. but the significance lies in two or three other things. the fact that she wins the vote is ported but the most important thing is this was a vote of no—confidence under tory rules. the tory rules also see if you have one of those you cannot do it again for another year. the gun had a blank, it is then taken away from brexiteers, that'll have an impact about what happens next about brexit, theresa may does not need to look over her shoulder at brexiteers who might punish if she goes perhaps towards a softer brexit. some in cabinet might see this as an opportunity to shift her towards reaching out across the political aisle. she has also said she will not run in the next election. that could weaken her

authority. it will mean that those people who want to run for the leadership have more opportunity, more certainty that that opportunity might come maybe as early as april or may next year. there are significance is greater than simply the margin of the victory. by all means it is certainly true theresa may is not out of the woods even if she does win tonight, she has got to get through a deal or face humiliation again potentially in the new year but i wonder if the dynamics are changed slightly by the fa ct dynamics are changed slightly by the fact that this threat that has been talked about for two and a half yea rs talked about for two and a half years is taken off the table. talked about for two and a half years is taken off the tablem talked about for two and a half years is taken off the table. it is not ta ken off years is taken off the table. it is not taken off the table, it is still there, she still faces the same problem, she cannot get the deal through parliament. the brexiteers will no longer have this thing hanging over where they could try and force her out of power but what they still have hanging over her is that they can block anything that

she tries to do over the next 12 months. if erg have fired a blank, where do they go? that is interesting. they are talking about the margin of victory or defeat. if she loses by this many books, how could she carry on? that is what they hear. i think if she wins by one vote she will carry on. this is not 1990, this is not normal government business, the country is ina government business, the country is in a moment of crisis. she can make a convincing case that this is not the time to walk away. it leaves the erg ina the time to walk away. it leaves the erg in a difficult spot. last month they made a big song and dance, if they made a big song and dance, if they do not get close to the numbers they do not get close to the numbers they claim, it makes them a lot weaker than what they would have told us in the past. all the focus on the conservatives, not much on the labour party, but if she gets

through the other side of this she could be facing a vote of no confidence but so farjeremy corbyn appears to have resisted the pressure or this from his own side and other opposition parties. pressure or this from his own side and other opposition partiesm there a majority in the house of commons to go after her personally? labour were intrigued by the wording ofan labour were intrigued by the wording of an article this morning saying there was confidence in her. it said, i have no confidence in theresa may as tory leader or prime minister. if labour put down a motion saying they also have no confidence in the prime minister, are there other people who feel compelled to vote no confidence? it sta rts compelled to vote no confidence? it starts to put it number of tory mps in an interesting position where they could end up in a parliamentary vote voting against the government as well with potentially significant impact. that is why this is not over. there are more avenues for

those who are sceptical about theresa may to pursue. but the optics of coming back after her if they have done badlyjust becomes a lot worse. your colleagues in brussels, what are they saying about what is happening over there on the eve of the summit? if she wins doesn't strengthen her hand to try and get something out of it? what they are hoping is that they will see the chaos here, everyone in europe is watching open notes, cannot believe this, but assuming she wins tonight... they have got a no—confidence vote in france i believe next week as well. the expectation is that if she wins tonight she will go to brussels tomorrow for the european council, the hope inside numberten is tomorrow for the european council, the hope inside number ten is that they will see how much pressure she is underan they will see how much pressure she is under an that'll help bring her back to the table and see we have to

work together to help you solve this problem. so far that has not been the message from european capitals, they are saying it is a british problem, a conservative party problem, a conservative party problem, why should we change our big a shooting positionjust to help you? but at the end everyone has to make this work. -- change our negotiating position. they are making the point this is a deal with the uk government is not with theresa may. earlier i spoke to matt hancock, the secretary for health and social care. he told me about the moment the prime minister told the meeting of backbench mps this evening, that she won't lead the party into the next election. she talked about how, especially after last year, she wanted to, but she recognised that wasn't going to happen. she was clear about that. why? is that because of cabinet colleagues, the likes of you, who have been telling her that is just not possible? i certainly have not made that case. who has?

i don't know. but that was what she said. and then she went through the very strong case for why she is the right person now to continue and complete these negotiations on brexit which she was in the middle of. she was supposed to be in ireland this afternoon. and there was a real warmth in the room. there were some questions. a whole series of questions. but a real warmth towards her and i very much hope that colleagues like me are backing her in numbers. to give you some more insight as to how mrs may's colleagues are saying here is a tweet from margot james, a conservative mp and minister. and she includes a picture of her ballot to prove it.

not everyone is backing the prime minister, in number of people have said they will vote against her. our chief political correspondent vicki young spoke to sir bernard jenkin and asked him if may's last—minute appeal to mps had reassured him at all. i am afraid it didn't change my mind. i am clear that i am not supporting theresa this evening. it is not for any lack of admiration of her and undervaluing her commitment. but the situation we face is that the conservative government has rather lost its authority to command the confidence of the house of commons. and it is difficult to know how the government is going to carry on its business without completely refreshing its relationship with the dup, because we haven't got

an overall majority at the moment. we rely on the dup, the democratic unionist party from northern ireland to support the conservative government. but they are very angry with theresa may because of the deal that she brought back from the european union which they regard as a very deep betrayal of promises made to them about the status of northern ireland within the united kingdom as we leave the european union. and there is no sign that that breach can be repaired. she has gone back to brussels to see what reassurances can be given but there is no prospect of any substantial change in that draft agreement. and it has been confirmed by the european union council of ministers office, they have again reissued a statement saying that they are not prepared to renegotiate. the only way to break this deadlock, the problem... a new leader...? what does a new leader give you given that the parliamentary arithmetic stays the same? that is perfectly true but the one

bit of the arithmetic that would change is the new leader would have to say we are not having this agreement. and whatever happens the agreement with these arrangements in it that so offends the status of northern ireland, and indeed david trimble, who was one of the architects of the peace process in northern ireland, and won the peace prize, he says these arrangements are a challenge themselves to the good friday agreement, the belfast agreement that ended the violence in northern ireland. this cannot go forward in its present form. it has to be changed, or we have be prepared to leave the eu without a withdrawal agreement. if the prime minister work to lose and all the indications are that she will win but if she was to lose conservative party members would have a role in what happens next. to

conservative candidates for the leadership would be put forward to conservative members and they would vote for which one they want. let us go to greater manchester. reeta chakra barti is at a meeting of the conservatives club. there is a great range of opinions here as to what should happen at what the outcome should be. you are a conservative member, lifelong conservative voter, a brexit supporter, what do you want to happen tonight? whatever happens the party needs to come together and deliver what they are meant to do on brexit, what people voted for. i am not sure at this stage what is going to happen but i think theresa may. in power. is that what you would wish to happen? ijust what

in power. is that what you would wish to happen? i just what the right thing to happen for the party and big sure we unite and get together. whatever way it goes that is what these to be the outcome. you area is what these to be the outcome. you are a counsellor, you are a remainer, what do you want to happen? it is disgusting that we had to go through this situation. the conservative mps who called for it to hold the heads in shame, it is a disgraceful situation for the party to have to go through at a time that it is important to our country. we have a deal in front of us. if we had the support of the majority of the conservative members of parliament that would be the best dealfor the parliament that would be the best deal for the country. as parliament that would be the best dealfor the country. as it parliament that would be the best deal for the country. as it is parliament that would be the best dealfor the country. as it is now with the leadership situation, i hope and i think we will win it, but we could have done without it. you are a candidate here. do you

worry about the impression this is giving the country about the conservative party and its ability to sort things out? i do not worry about that because at the end of the day it does reflect that the country in general, 48—52 split across the country, we are seeing a reflection of that within our party. that said, ido of that within our party. that said, i do not think this should have happened today at such a crucial time, we should all be getting behind theresa may. i am a brexiteer. the deal almost does it. if we can sort out the backstop, if we can get some clarity around the backstop. the northern ireland issue. absolutely. that is my sticking point. but at the end of the day she is our prime minister, we should all be behind her, and i hope she wins tonight. if she wins by a small majority, and

indications are that she will win, but if she wins by a small majority, as her authority going to be severely dented? we have got to get over that and carry on, get behind the prime minister and deliver on brexit. the win is a win. if i win by one vote next year i have one, we all get behind her. the more votes that we get over that one, the better. you are the person who is most lu kewa rm better. you are the person who is most lukewarm about theresa may leading the party going forward over the brexit negotiations. what would she need to do to convince you that she need to do to convince you that she is the right person strimmer it is not really my view about her being there right person. she is the prime minister, she is leading our party. maybe she has not done things

in the way that some of us would have liked to have done things. she could have been a bit tougher, going at the no deal angle with europe, that might have given her more leverage on negotiations. there has been a fuel issues with that. but tonight if she wins i will be fully supportive, because that is a chapter closed. we have had all this special edition for a couple of months. and these letters going in? now it has come to a head. we have got the sports tonight. it is going on right now. whatever the outcome, we will be behind that and be behind the party which of a direction it goes. over the past week in particular theresa may has shown what she is made up. she has spoken in parliament. she put the statement through earlier last week. the way she has responded, even today, when

she has responded, even today, when she responded to questions in the house of commons, i think she has proved what she is made up. if you speak to people on the streets, as i do, there view is very much that she isa do, there view is very much that she is a resilient prime minister. we should get behind her. we will have to leave it there. thank you all very much. lots of strong opinions there. we will wait to see what the result of the ballot is and then we will be back to check reaction. awin isa will be back to check reaction. a win is a win see those conservative members. but we heard different views in wiltshire. maybe the membership is divided as it is across the road. earlier my colleague huw edwards spoke to the former conservative deputy prime minister, lord heseltine. she is in trouble. not over this

challenge. she will win that. that is not the issue, the issue is whether she has authority to command a majority in the commons. she ran away from that. the facts remain. nothing has changed. the deal is there, it is the only deal, added is not going through the commons.“ there any prospect that the prime minister can get some colleagues on board in sufficient numbers? how? if you look at the numbers, look at the numbers of people who have resigned, will be bought for her? art the brexiteers? are they going to resign? it does not add up. which leaves us where? it leaves us, the frightening thing, it leaves us with

the christmas recess, when this place, which is the only place that can take decisions, as off for turkey and ben spies. i hope that members of parliament would not put up members of parliament would not put up with that. —— mentz pies. i hope they would not go off and enjoy themselves when there is this serious crisis. michael heseltine saying whatever the result here tonight it does not change the maths across the road when it comes to the issue of getting their brexit deal through the house of commons. our chief political correspondent vicki young joins us now from the house of commons. the chancellor has faltered and when asked how he has voted he said, conservative. theresa may went into fort, one of my colleagues asked her, she simply laughed. it is

a lwa ys her, she simply laughed. it is always ha rd to her, she simply laughed. it is always hard to predict these things. i spoke to someone from the downing street tea m i spoke to someone from the downing street team earlier who seemed apprehensive. i was surprised that could be the nature of this type of thing. it is busy destabilising many party decides that it might want to change the leader. but there are still many predicting that theresa may will win pretty clearly. as you we re may will win pretty clearly. as you were saying there, what that means for the longer term is still not certain. it was interesting that she felt she had to say to mps that even though in her heart she had wanted to lead the party into the general election in 2022 she recognised that is not what everyone wanted so she said she would not do that. a minister said he thought colleagues would walk more clarification, whether she meant she would go in april, or she will go through until 2021. that is an issue. and the much broader issue about how bad the end of all this she is able to get a

deal through parliament on brexit. she did not give many answers there. she did not give many answers there. she had been around europe asking for clarification. it seems to be that she feels she has got something, whether it would be in to bring the dup back on board is another matter. eurosceptics do not think it will be enough. we will have two c tonight if she wins and well whether that can in any way give more stability to her leadership. it is interesting that loyalists like george freeman earlier today we re like george freeman earlier today were saying she cannot go on and on and she cannot go on until the 2022 election. that was clearly a demand that was made by people that were going to vote for her this evening, but as we have seen previously, when leaders say they are going, speculation builds as to when, and the power starts to ebb away. that has happened every time. tony blairdid it. that has happened every time. tony blair did it. david cameron did it. it does become a problem because the

idea that she can take into brexit meaning she is in charge about negotiations of the future relationship, and remember their withdrawal agreement is only part of this, all the difficult decisions about that relationship are still to come. it sounds tonight as she said, she is going to do it differently, be more open about what she is aiming for, get more people included in all of that, but i am not sure they will give her the time to go into all of that in the longer term. one mp tonight said he was finding it galling that there were a cabinet ministers going on here saying they we re ministers going on here saying they were backing her completely and behind the scenes were asking him for his support in a leadership bid if and when it comes. this tonight is not going to resolve those issues. just a few minutes left of voting. people will just out just a few minutes left of voting. people willjust out and tell us what they think of what has happened. and this evening there is

a special programme on the bbc with andrew neil getting reaction to the vote as it comes in. we are also getting reaction from the grassroots and brexit voting communities around the country about what they think about the chaos across the road. our correspondent sarah campbell is in maidenhead. it is exciting times at the bowling club, they defeated south hall earlier this evening, currently it is internal competition. perhaps some parallels with parliament this evening with what is going on in the corridors of westminster. this is a personal constituency for theresa may, she has been mp here since 1997, a lot of people know her had worked with her. we have two of them here. what do you think about what is

going on? you are a remain supporter? are you a theresa may supporter? are you a theresa may supporter which mac very much. she is our local mp supporter which mac very much. she is ourlocalmp and supporter which mac very much. she is our local mp and has always supported us, even to the extent she came to our 50th anniversary a couple of years ago and it was great to see. spontaneous applause. the clu b to see. spontaneous applause. the club supports her. you are a conservative voter, what do you make of what is happening this evening with the vote of confidence in her? ifind it confusing. she with the vote of confidence in her? i find it confusing. she appoint a tea m i find it confusing. she appoint a team and the team lets her down. they just go team and the team lets her down. theyjust go on and on, it seems like self interest. i feel sorry for her because she works extremely hard, very dedicated. might not get everything right that there are ways of doing things and i do not think a vote of no—confidence is their way forward. she should still be prime minister? i think so, forward. she should still be prime minister? ithink so, she forward. she should still be prime minister? i think so, she should finish thejob she minister? i think so, she should finish the job she started. ijust

wonder what people are trying to achieve. you have campaigned personally for theresa may. what do you make of what is going on this evening? it is appalling behaviour of the conservative mps to call for confidence tonight. it is not the right time, it is a crucial time in the pet set process, mps should be backing the prime minister, this does not benefit anybody apart from those with personal ambitions. what will happen tonight? i am confident she will win. she will carry on with the brexit process. it is a shame that the conservative party is going through this self—destructive course tonight. what kind of person is she and where does she go from here if she does not win the vote? she is hard—working and dedicated as an mp and a prime minister and she will carry on doing the job that we elected her to do and deliver brexit

and deal with other issues. you are not a politician. you are not a massively cortical person. what do you think people make of what is going on? i was a remain. during my career i spent all my time working in europe and across the world and i am used to no boundaries but i am old enough to remember when we had to go through checkpoints and customs. to my mind it is a retrograde step to get out of it. having said that, nobody knew what we we re having said that, nobody knew what we were reporting for. it was such a simple question and now people are making my out of the fact, we need this, we need that, it is all hindsight. much of the criticism is wrong and not necessarily. theresa may personally? she is a lovely

lady, she has always been very dedicated. she goes to all the events. she has supported people locally for a great many years and i am sure google continue to support her whatever happens. thank you. in between the bowling we will be keeping an eye on the vote which we are expecting imminently. thank you. let us show you the live picture of committee room 14just across the road where the voting is about to finish. we have had two hours of voting, 317 conservative mps have been into that room to cast a secret ballot on the leadership of theresa may. we will get a result we think in the course of the next hour. there is a room next to committee room 14 where several conservative officials will be counting those ballots, finding out what the final tally is. we will be

looking not only at the results, but the margin of the result, and whether theresa may has been returned as the conservative leader. stay with us. plenty more to come here from westminster. this is bbc news i'm christian fraser at westminster where voting has closed in the ballot on theresa may's future. conservative mps have spent two hours deciding whether she should stay or go, the results expected in the next hour. earlier she addressed what was described as an ‘emotional meeting, promising not to lead the party into the next general election. there was a real warmth in the room, there were some questions are whole series of questions, by a weirdo warmth towards her, and i very much

hope —— a real warmth, and i hope they're backing her numbers. migrated to dodge change my