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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  December 13, 2018 8:30am-9:01am GMT

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this is business live from bbc news with sally bundock in westminster and me, victoria fritz, in the studio. theresa may survives a bruising leadership challenge but is weakened. what are the implications for her brexit deal? live from london, that's our top story on thursday 13th december. theresa may is now heading to brussels for an eu summit, where she'll seek further concessions in an effort to salvage her brexit deal. just how are political developments in the uk viewed from the heart of europe? we'll get reaction live from brussels and also analysis from our own economics correspondent dharshini david. today we want to know what you make of the last 2a hours. share your thoughts and get in touch with me and the rest of the team using the hashtag bbc bizlive.
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a warm welcome to the programme. here we are in westminster, where politicians are gathering, the morning after the night before. the pound has studied a little after the prime minister, theresa may, managed to survive the leadership contest. but a third of her party's mps did vote against her and that does not bode well at all for her chances in brussels as she resumes efforts to sell her brexit deal to parliament. she is now headed to brussels to try and ring out further concessions. attending an eu summit, she will seek legally binding pledges from eu leaders on the irish backstop, a key obstacle leaders on the irish backstop, a key o bsta cle for leaders on the irish backstop, a key obstacle for mps who oppose the brexit deal. let's have a look at
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how all of this has been playing out on the currency markets. sterling has been on the move since rumours of the confidence vote emerged late on tuesday. those reports saw the pound plunged in value to a 20 month low versus the dollar. but stirling then enjoyed the best day it has had for six weeks on wednesday. this in anticipation on the part of trade that mrs may will survive the vote. the gains were stalled when investors and market watchers started to digest the scale of the rebellion, when that became clear. the 117 that voted against her. that is when the pound started to tailback a little bit. with me here is silvia dall‘angelo, senior economist at hermes investment management. give us your take on the last 24—hour is. and its impact. give us your take on the last 24-hour is. and its impact. the vote yesterday was really a distraction
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and today we are back to the stark reality, which is that basically there is no clarity on the way forward. we now have a prime minister who has been weakened by the vote yesterday, which means if anything in turn there is even less likelihood of her withdrawal agreement being approved by parliament. business leaders have been so frustrated by the last 2a hours, the distraction it has caused, the fact that everybody is on edge, even more so caused, the fact that everybody is on edge, even more so now, and the prime minister seems to be even wea ker prime minister seems to be even weaker than she was before. she has got to go back to brussels. what are her chances? eu leaders have really been clear. negotiations leading to the current withdrawal agreement have been long and they have required considerable efforts from both sides. at this stage it is really unlikely that they will make further concessions. apart from some
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marginal adjustments, further concessions. apart from some marginaladjustments, marginal twea ks, marginaladjustments, marginal tweaks, at the edges. frankly i don't think that her trip to brussels will be particularly fruitful. what are your clients saying to you about all of this and what advice have you given the lack of insight that we have? everybody hates uncertainty and we have that by the bucket load. right. the uk is typically a very dynamic economy. so there are clearly several opportunities for investors, but at the moment because of the uncertainty lingering, our clients are uncertainty lingering, our clients a re really uncertainty lingering, our clients are really on the sidelines waiting for more clarity. where are the opportunities? do tell.|j for more clarity. where are the opportunities? do tell. iwould for more clarity. where are the opportunities? do tell. i would say that the equity market looks undervalued at the moment. which one are you talking about?” undervalued at the moment. which one are you talking about? i mean in general because of the uncertainty. if there is any clarity, there is also an upside for uk assets. are
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you talking about ftse 250 companies? companies that have been sold off? companies exposed to the domestic economy? yes. the ftse 100 domestic economy? yes. the ftse100 is more exposed to external demand but domestically centred firms, which have suffered the most from the brexit uncertainty, i think there is more of an upside going forward. that again as long as we don't have certainty... and if we crash out of europe? i would attach a low probability to that scenario but of course it can happen by accident. and at that stage there would probably be more downsides for all uk companies and i think that is something that policymakers should ta ke something that policymakers should take into account going forward. thank you so much. i appreciate it is really ha rd thank you so much. i appreciate it is really hard to look ahead at this
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stage and try and predict what might happen next. back to you, victoria, in the studio. thank you. alessio terzi is an affiliate fellow at the economics think tank bruegel, in brussels. in belgiumi in belgium i understand the newspapers are calling this an empiric victory, one that inflicts such devastating consequences and a devastating toll on the vector that it is tantamount to defeat. is that how you regard it? the reason why to my understanding it has been called thatis my understanding it has been called that is because, yes, theresa may gained some time and some leeway by winning this vote, but the conservative party also emerged as extremely divided and this precludes defeat in the house of commons for the withdrawal agreement. short—term victory but no underlying success. this is nothing
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that we didn't know on monday. city where i am in brussels, it is extremely complex to understand the sausage extremely complex to understand the sausage factory of the house of commons. it looks like a black box. from here there are lots of political tactics but the underlying problems and red lines, and the legal situation with the european union, has been the same now for months. so it is not clear how this will be solved by short—term tactics. the brexit minister in the last few moments had said there needs to be recognition, from both sides, that the backstop is a concern, saying that it is his intention not to walk away with no deal. just how helpful can and will theresa may's european colleagues be in the next few days? look, i think
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all european heads of state and government want or absolutely do not wa nt government want or absolutely do not want a hard brexit, so they try to be forthcoming with theresa may. they have also engaged in an exercise of expectations management. we have had chancellor angela merkel state that the legal text of the withdrawal agreement will not be changed. the president of the european commission has said the legal text will not be changed, at the european parliament, and eve ryo ne the european parliament, and everyone is saying the legal text will not change. what they can do is give some reassurances in a political declaration and say we all agree that it would not be ideal to activate the backstop. the backstop is there hopefully never to be used, but it shouldn't be the baseline scenario. this is what they can say. thank you very much. black boxes and sausage factories of parliament! we haveit sausage factories of parliament! we have it all going on here on the programme. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. reports say chinese researchers working in sensitive hi—tech sectors
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have been warned against travel to the us following the arrest of the huawei executive in canada. the tech firm's chief financial officer, meng wanzhou, was arrested in vancouver on 1st december. she was granted bail earlier this week but could be extradited to the us to face fraud charges. still with china, a state news agency in the country says a second canadian citizen who had been reported missing by the authorities in canada is being investigated on suspicion of harming national security. businessman michael spavor had contacted canadian officials this week to say he was being questioned. south korea's carmaker hyundai says it plans to provide funding worth $1.5 billion to stabilise management of its suppliers. the funding is designed also to support research and development and innovation by the suppliers. let's talk some more about the
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financial markets. certainly everybody here outside the houses of parliament, which is looking gorgeous today with the sunshine coming up, is completely obsessed with politics, brexit, the uk economy and business. that when it comes to the global financial markets, i have got to say that attention is on what is going on between the us and china when it comes to trade stocks. it would seem that we have had a few politics developments giving markets around the world a boost. —— positive developments. we can cross live to mariko 0i at a trading floor in singapore. tell us about the day in asia. people were watching the pound sterling but more importantly trade talks between the and china. that is right. of course asian markets were the first to react to the result of that leadership challenge. the result was announced at five o'clock in the morning local time and some of the major markets in china started trading then and they
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actually opened higher. we are wrapping up the other day and we have had a pretty decent day. then ak ended the day 1% higher. —— the nikkei. investors are looking at the china trade war and beijing may be trying to ease the tensions with the united states. that is why we positive reaction. a trader that i spoke to earlier he said he said he had not been asked about the uk and it was all about the us and china. i've got uncertainties do remain over brexit, as you are talking to your guest about. —— of course uncertainties remain. it would have a huge impact on asian markets, especially financial shares, but for now asian investors are just waiting to see what happens next when it comes to brexit and focusing more on other issues like the trade war. thank you. let's get some more reaction news for markets in london,
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about 41 minutes old. theresa may survived a vote of no confidence late on wednesday. we can cross live to kim gittleson live for us at the offices of peel hunt in central london. what is going on? what are you seeing in the first a0 minutes of trade? it is busy but not frantic. a lot of traders have been telling me they kind of expected this outcome. i don't need to tell you that. i am joined by charles hall, the director of research here, and he will answer some key questions that we have had. why if we were expecting this vote have we seen pound sterling trending higher this morning strengthening against the dollar and the euro? good morning. the main thing is we have not descended into the chaos of a leadership vote during the brexit negotiations. that is a positive for the pound. clearly we haven't got any resolution of what will be the outcome of brexit so it has gone marginally higher, but at least it has moved in a positive direction. it is the pound is the main thing you have been focusing on when you
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have been trying to get a sense from investors about where we are in the brexit process? is there something else you are paying attention to, like bonds and equities? bonds and equities. bond yields have been dropping, and there is a feeling that uk growth will slow, and of course equities, and a lot of companies have been reporting over the last few months, and most of them are much more cautious than they were earlier in the year and we can see that turning up both in the earnings momentum but also the comments on how they are preparing for brexit and what it might mean for brexit and what it might mean for them. that is the question going forward. theresa may has survived this confidence vote but what does it mean for the brexit process? many have said this is a sideshow and we are back to where we were earlier in the week. i think it is more than a sideshow and quite important for two reasons. firstly this was really a vote driven by people who wanted a ha rd vote driven by people who wanted a hard brexit and they have lost. that strengthens theresa may's hand. the other key reason is that she no longer faces being defeated by her own party. and having to stand down.
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for two key reasons, she now has a stronger hand to go into negotiations with the europeans over brexit negotiations. but clearly she has got to be able to get it through parliament and we are a long way from that. does that mean that the roller—coaster ride that we have been on with pound sterling is coming to an end right now? yes, the roller—coaster is probably getting toa roller—coaster is probably getting to a smoother patch but we can still get up and down a long way from here. charles hall, thank you for your time this morning. back to you, victoria. thank you. still to come: we'll get more analysis of the economic and business impact of the developments of the past 2a hours with our economics correspondent dharshini david. yes, we will bring you all the reaction from westminster as well as theresa may resumes her battle to sell brexit to british mps. she is headed to brussels. you're with business live from bbc news. well, we've been hearing how global
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markets have reacted to the chaos in westminster, but what does this mean for ordinary people? ben thompson has been out on the streets of london to find out. welcome to leadenhall market in the city of london. this place has survived to world wars, fires, deep recessions, and the business is here just get on with things but what do they make of the last 2a are with? are we any further forward in those negotiations and any further forward i'm giving clarity to business who has faced so much uncertainty? with me as has faced so much uncertainty? with measa has faced so much uncertainty? with me as a financial editor of the financial times. we are no further forward and business has no idea about what is happening compared to 2a are as ago. about what is happening compared to 24 are as ago. certainly. the way --
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if you are running a business the way the government is running the brexit process, you would not be doing very well. they have had to put up with uncertainty, the shifting sands of the brexit negotiations for more than two yea rs. negotiations for more than two years. the boat last night has not anything. the majority that theresa may managed to secure one is not very convincing. there is still the threat of the vote of no confidence coming from the opposition and there are coming from the opposition and there a re lots of coming from the opposition and there are lots of doubts included in the currency market that this will take us currency market that this will take us any further forward. what does that uncertainty look like day to day for businesses? it is easy to talk about headline numbers and the big picture but what does it mean day to day? there was economic data out on tuesday which showed that domestic companies in britain are pretty much grinding to a halt. jobs are not being created. people are delaying decisions until after march, maybe that is spending on a new fleet of vans, and you advertising and marketing campaign, taking on new people, giving
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existing workers a pay rise. if you don't have to spend money, why would you? the danger is that will now tra nsfer to you? the danger is that will now transfer to the consumer. thank you so much. nice to see you. business has got a lot to contend with and lots of questions that still don't have any answers. whether we will get those of course, there is a long road ahead. more from us later. then in the city. there are other stories that are not related to brexit and i found one about slime! families has failed a safety test with one of its line products because it tested for boron. —— nikkei. plenty more on that story on the tablet. —— hamley‘s. welcome back to a special edition of business live coming
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to you from westminster and our studios in central london. our top story: british prime minister theresa may is resuming her efforts to salvage her brexit deal after surviving a bruising leadership challenge. she is now on her way back to brussels where she will be meeting with eu leaders to try and get further concessions on what has become known as the irish backstop. that is to try and avoid a hard border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland. here in westminster, hopes are pretty low right now that you may get the concessions she needs. let's have a quick look at the market and how they are faring. docs have been fairly positive, but as you can see, the rally is ebbing away, momentum is ebbing away. —— stocks have been positive. investors are looking at the relations between the us and china and the pound has been drifting upwards. hundreds of column inches and broadcasting hours have been
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dominated by brexit this week but what's the end game for prime minister theresa may? she heads to brussels this morning for an eu summit, after surviving a vote of confidence. i'm joined now by dharshini david. you have been looking at the economic picture of all of this. the cbi called the last 20 what i was a chaotic detail and they represent 90,000 businesses or something. —— the last 2a hours a chaotic detour. some people call what happened in westminster a dramatic soap opera but it has unearthed fault lines in our leading party. that could mean we will see the volatility that we are used to seeing from the currencies of emerging markets. what does this mean for bricks and mortar companies, people who have got to
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put their money where their mouth is, make plans because the clock is ticking? we talk about 100 shopping days until christmas. 100 days until brexit. what should they do? many business leaders are having to ask we are having to press the button on contingency plans that we did not expect to make. that is like buying an umbrella. it doesn't matter whether it rains or not after that, you have spent that money and that money is gone and you cannot spend it on other things. that disruption is very real. some businesses start saying to us that it affects their hiring plans going forward and we would expect to see that impacting unemployment figures in the coming months. all of which could make investors quite nervous. is it too late to buy umbrellas? surely we know there will be a rainy day in britain? i think we should be buying something even more weatherproof than that! that is it too late? in terms of contingency planning nothing has really changed for
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months now. nothing has changed and thatis months now. nothing has changed and that is the big problem. businesses, we we re that is the big problem. businesses, we were told we would have plans in place, we would have a bit more certainty about what lies ahead. very few people expected it to be at this stage with no idea of what would happen in three months. and if you talk to the treasury select committee, they have flagged up that they are alarmed about how the communication has been even to businesses who just trade with the eu, and that is incredibly alarming as well. this week whitehall said they were recruiting more civil serva nts to they were recruiting more civil servants to help plan for the eventuality. businesses don't have that luxury of ramping up contingencies at this late time. it is pretty worrying. and where does this leave the prospects for the uk economy and jobs and wages and the things that affect everyone in their everyday lives? if you look at what
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is going on in the economy at the moment, it is a fascinating picture because we have the highest wage growth for ten years in the uk. finally we are able to say we have left the financial crisis behind and households are feeling better off and employment is at an all—time high. the kinds of headlines that politicians love to talk about. 0n the other hand, we are now seeing growth, but perhaps a schedule this yearfor growth, but perhaps a schedule this year for the weakest outcome since 2010 perhaps. that underlines how this uncertainty is keeping a lid on activity in the uk, on investment and output, and that could feed into hiring plans and wage growth in the new year as well. it is not surprising that investors are feeling a bit nervous. but if we get a deal and we see a smooth reaction to that as well, the picture could change quite drastically. none of this is happening in a back room. the eu has other pressing problems to deal with, like the italian budget and weighs over that, and a potential vote of no—confidence in
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france. perhaps the uk government has been a bit relieved that some of the pressure has been taken off. look over there. they are also having problems. this brings up all sorts of questions because what we have seen in france is emmanuel macron saying he will have to make some concessions, which equals money. that money will have to be added on for the government and it could push them over the kind of deficit limits that the eu commission like to see. italy at the moment is under great pressure to change its budget plans and bring it back into line with the rules. they are saying they might tinker around the edges a bit. this is exposing various fault lines, notjust in the eurozone that the eu as a whole. the markets will feel uneasy about that. an uneasy time ahead and a busy one for you, dharshini, and an uneasy time ahead and a busy one foryou, dharshini, and so an uneasy time ahead and a busy one for you, dharshini, and so i will let you go because you must have other engagements. let's go back to sally bunn dug in westminster for us. you have been talking all morning to different businesses and investors coming in and out. give us
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a sense of some of the things they have been saying to you today. it was interesting listening to dharshini talking about the political turmoil and chaos unfolding behind us in the house of commons. a message from business leaders and organisations that represent them is almost unanimous. we wa nt represent them is almost unanimous. we want to crack on and we need to get to the next stage. that is of course what theresa may is trying to achieve in brussels today. but by no means is the political turmoil that is being felt here in house of commons over. if we look at some of the reaction from some other political leaders here, and i haven't even mentioned the leader of the opposition so far this morning, jeremy corbyn, who says this boat has changed nothing. theresa may has lost the majority in parliament. her government is in chaos and it cannot deliver the right brexit deal. he is saying that labour will table a no—confidence motion, forcing
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general election, when they feel they can win it. but also within the tory party itself, you have still got leaders such as jacob rees—mogg leading at the group called the european research group, who are also not happy at all about their withdrawal agreement that theresa may has brokered. and they think that whatever she comes back with from brussels will not be good enough to get voted through in parliament here in westminster in the coming weeks. they regardless of what business leaders are saying at the moment, there is still a lot more uncertainty ahead, and that is for sure. thank you very much, sally. thank you for a mammoth shift at westminster today. that is it from the programme but there is plenty more throughout the day and on the website. goodbye. good morning. if you have been out
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already this morning, you will know that it already this morning, you will know thatitis already this morning, you will know that it is cold out there, colder than in the last few days, with winds from the south—east, bringing frosty nights over the next few days and where by the weekend. before that there could be some snow for some of us over the higher ground in scotla nd some of us over the higher ground in scotland and england. today we have got a cold south—easterly wind but towards the west there is more cloud and weather fronts bringing towards the west there is more cloud and weatherfronts bringing rain from northern ireland, south—western parts of england as well. elsewhere, sunny spells developing across a good part of the uk. perhaps some showers in eastern scotla nd uk. perhaps some showers in eastern scotland and north—east of england as well through this morning but it is fairly windy, especially around areas. gusts of a5 to 55 mph. temperatures might say five to 7
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degrees, but because of the stronger winds, it will feel much colder than that suggests. may be about freezing to one or two. through the night we will keep clear skies in many areas so colder compared to the last few nights. cloud in northern ireland keep temperatures above freezing. elsewhere it will drop down below freezing at minus one or two. a frosty start to friday morning and the air is still coming in from the south—east. a cold day on friday put out towards the west, a weather system bringing less cold air that will try to move in. it will stay out towards the atlantic at least 12 friday. so another cold day with plenty of sunshine and some showers on the north—eastern coast of england and eastern scotland. a dry day for northern ireland and the odd shower here perhaps. temperatures three to five but the winds will not be as strong through friday so not feeling quite as cold out and about. going into the weekend, this weather system in the west is going to move
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its way in finally. as it pushes them, it will bring outbreaks of rain and stronger winds, but as the rain and stronger winds, but as the rain moves in, it hits the colder air, and it will start to fall as snow across northern ireland and scotland. much of this will be over higher ground, but down to lower levels on saturday there could be some snow falling. 0ver levels on saturday there could be some snow falling. over the hills of northern england as well. there is that it will remain dry and brighter skies as the rain moves in and it will be less cold as it pushes its way through as well. that is all from me. goodbye. you're watching bbc news. we're live in downing street covering the fallout from last night's dramatic events in parliament. the headlines at 9:00. theresa may gets back to business, heading for talks with eu leaders, after winning a vote of no confidence called by her own mps. we now need to get on with the job of delivering brexit and building a
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better future for this country. the prime minister is travelling to a summit in brussels where she will seek binding pledges from other european leaders on the irish backstop. i'm annita mcveigh — the other main stories on bbc news at 9:00. french police ask for the public‘s help to find the man suspected of killing two people at a christmas market in strasbourg. at least nine people are killed as a high speed train crashes
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