this is business live from bbc news with maryam moshiri and victoria fritz. british prime minister theresa may warns her brexit deal is "at risk" as she returns empty—handed from brussels. live from london, that's our top story on friday 14th december. the brexit deadlock takes its toll, as companies scale back uk spending and investors pull billions out of britain. also in the programme, the slowdown in china continues. shoppers and factories feeling the squeeze from a weakening global economy and the trade war with the us. and news of that slowdown spooked asian markets. european stocks are following suit. and we'll take stock of a busy week of business news. while brexit has dominated the headlines, it's the us—china

trade war which has been moving the global markets. we'll put it all in perspective with our economics editor andrew walker. today we want to know, as gender stereotypes deemed harmful are set to be banned in uk adverts, would you like to see fewer ads showing men struggling with household chores or women unable to park? or do you see no problem? let us know — just use the hashtag bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. we start with brexit, because as you have been hearing, eu leaders meeting in brussels have refused to renegotiate britain's withdrawal agreement following talks with theresa may. they have though, offered reassurances about the controversial irish "backstop" plan, which critics say could keep the uk tied to eu rules indefinitely. but is it enough to get britain's parliament

to support the deal? on thursday, uk business groups warned of the damage being done to the economy by the ongoing uncertainty. despite the vote to leave the eu in 2016, foreign investment into the uk hit a record high of $1.69 trillion last year. that was certainly helped by a fall in the pound, making uk assets cheaper. but there are increasing warning signs this year. between april and june, uk companies cut their investment here by 0.7% to $60 billion, the fourth quarter in a row of weak corporate spending. and betweenjuly and september, financial institutions withdrew investment from the uk to the tune of more than $15 billion. it was the third quarter in a row that investors have pulled money out of the uk, and that's not happened since comparable records began in 1987. simon fraser, a former top official at the british foreign office and a managing partner at

flint global, who advise companies on european business policy issues. thank you forjoining us. what are you telling the people you are advising? what they know already, there is a huge amount of uncertainty around brexit and that will continue into next year, very close to the march deadline. at the moment, we don't know what the outcome will be. there are many possible outcomes. one of them, although nobody really wants it, one of them is no deal. indeed, if nothing else happens, we will have nothing else happens, we will have no deal in march. so businesses can if they are going to be responsible, have to plan on that basis, the worst case scenario. have to plan on that basis, the worst case scenario. one thing eve ryo ne worst case scenario. one thing everyone seems to agree on is worst case scenario. one thing everyone seems to agree on is that no deal, crashing out of the eu as a scenario, would be disastrous so how likely is it as a scenario, the central scenario? it would be disastrous and very few people want it, one or two people are prepared

to countenance it but it would be a very bad outcome economically and politically for this country, as well as for the eu. that is why i think there is a very good hope that simon time in january, think there is a very good hope that simon time injanuary, the politicians will wake up and find an alternative course but we can't bank on that. wake up before or after a vote on... this meaningful vote we are supposed to get on the deal that seems no different to the one we we re seems no different to the one we were supposed to be voting on, mps we re were supposed to be voting on, mps were supposed to be voting on, mps were supposed to be voting on, mps were supposed to vote on come on tuesday? i think theresa may will plough on with her plan and try to put it to a vote, it is clear she didn't get much if anything very significant last night out of the eu and we have to be realistic about what can be achieved. the chances of getting her vote through still it very difficult at the moment. the question for her if she does not win the vote is has she got the leadership and imagination to find an alternative way through which avoids no deal? does she? it will be very challenging for her. she will have to reach out beyond her party and try to build a consensus either around a second referendum or some softer form of brexit like the

norway option. so far, she has said she won't do that. but would she have to? that would be the only choice available to her at that point, i think, choice available to her at that point, ithink, but choice available to her at that point, i think, but many other things will happen. the labour party will probably challenge her. there may be an attempt to force a general election. i go back to my original point, we have to expect ongoing uncertainty well into the new year. and on the basis of that plan, contingency plans, too little, too late? i think both on the eu side and the uk sign, the contingency planning for no deal is too late from the government. —— the uk side. the government said yesterday they will announce on the 19th of december their proposals for a no deal contingency. meanwhile, hmrc yesterday sent out some notes to companies about things they need to do in order to registerfor approved economic operator status. it seems to me that is far too late for all of the companies in the uk to be able to react. would they even be able to react. would they even be able to react. would they even be able to get it between now and the end of much? some people say it

would be completely overwhelming to hmrc if all these companies begin to apply for this status. i think there's a real problem about contingency planning which has got to be addressed with great urgency. simon fraser, thank you for coming let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. the japanese government says it will give tax breaks to car buyers to offset the impact of a sales tax hike planned for next year. it comes amid the looming threat of tariffs on the country's car exports to the united states. the new tax breaks are aimed at those who buy cars after the sales tax hike kicks in october 2019. the international monetary fund says global debt hit a record $181; trillion last year. that's well over double the size of the world economy — and equivalent to more than $86,000 per person. the biggest borrowers are the world's top three economies — the us, china and japan. earlier this month the imf warned the "storm clouds of the next global financial crisis are gathering", with excessive debt

one of the big risks. the french government is seeking candidates to replace renault boss carlos ghosn, according to a report by reuters. at a board meeting on thursday, renault directors were briefed on an investigation by their alliance partner nissan, that led to ghosn's arrest and dismissal as chairman for alleged financial conduct last month. he is accused of failing to declare some $113 million in earnings, which he denies. let's take a look at asia now, and a flood of economic reports for november confirms the ongoing slowdown in china's economy. our asia business correspondent karishma vaswani joins us now. this is quite disappointing news from the world's second biggest economy but what does it tell us about the impact of the trade war between us and china? china's economic data is closely watched, increasingly so because of the impact from the us china trade war. economists pour over the figures every month to try to get a sense of how the chinese economy is doing.

the figures out today are being called ugly by some economists, in fa ct. called ugly by some economists, in fact. let talk you through some of the details. we had retail sales which is a really good indicator of how chinese consumers are spending money. those figures came in at their lowest levels since 2003. industrial production, which is a measure of how much factories are producing in china, those figures also came in below the estimates of many economists. all of these are very worrying signs pointing to the fa ct very worrying signs pointing to the fact that the impact of the us china trade war which up until this point, we really haven't seen, because remember, export figures from china have really held up, showing that people are still buying from the world's second largest economy but now there are fears that each heels, if you will, of the trade war, even though we are in this 90 day negotiation period, the two sides are trying to sort this out, we are starting to see some real impact at the ground level. this is going to

be very problematic for policymakers as they meet next week when they sit down to discuss their plans for the outlet, for how to solve some of china's biggest economic woes, when they sit down in beijing next week. thank you forjoining us. so china's retail sales figures were their weakest since 2003. this is the impact they had on the markets, the nick a closing down over 2% and the hang seng over 1.5%. a quick look at european markets because they have followed suit, the london market down nearly 1% and in germany, even more. let's look at what will happen later on wall street with michelle fleury. the latest us retail sales figures are released this friday. traditionally, november and december are the most lucrative time of year for retailers, getting a boost from holiday shopping. that's not likely to be the case this time around. economists forecast an increase of two tenths of a percent for november. slower than the previous month.

few think this will impact the america central bank, which is expected to raise interest rates at their policy meeting next week. but it is worth noting that the consumer outlook is likely to be incorporated in any future estimates for us growth next year. also, manufacturing production likely edged higher last month, industrial production data is expected to notch up a 0.3% gain in november. joining us is david bloom, global head of currency strategy at hsbc. thank you forjoining us. thank you very much. we were talking thereabout some of the data coming out from china, retail sales falling to their lowest level since 2003, factory orders not looking great, lowest in three years. it is difficult, isn't it? these are just the novemberfigures. difficult, isn't it? these are just the november figures. can difficult, isn't it? these are just the novemberfigures. can you put them into a wider context? it is probably good for your viewers to hear about other peoples problems instead of our own for once! but we mustn't forget the chinese stock

market is down 20% this year and the currency is down 10% and china was slowing down even before this trade war story. one of the things going on in the global economy which we may be missing because we are so focused on ourselves at the moment is that global growth is slowing down. in the third quarter of the year, germany was negative, so was sweden and japan, and china, a bit ofa sweden and japan, and china, a bit of a slowdown. outside of the brexit bubble, the world economy is not looking that great and china is slowing. but it was still over 8% retail sales, and in the slowing. but it was still over 8% retailsales, and in the uk, retailers are worried about our retailers are worried about our retail conditions and they are worried when it goes to 8% so it is still a decent number. let's talk about the pound because we have been focused on that as a barometer of how the market feels about brexit. what has it been doing today? not much, it is like you are sitting and there is a tug of war and all you can do is watch the little white flag and you see it going up and down and you think it is not really moving but there are two huge forces, the no brexit and the deal

pushing it in different directions and we could have completely different outcomes. it has got a veneer different outcomes. it has got a veneer of stability or just a little bit of movement but it could go one way or the other with a big pull from either side. you have heard about it on your show. at the moment, the pound looks to be stable but underneath it, the rope has a lot of tension on it. thanks very much. still to come. it's been a hectic week for market—moving news with brexit and the us—china trade war at the forefront of investors‘ minds. we'll review the week with our economics editor, andrew walker. you're with business live from bbc news. it's the busiest week of the year for royal mail as it delivers millions of cards and parcels in time for christmas. wait a waita minute, wait a minute, whereas my christmas card? it's in the post. i'm sat next

to you! you should give it to me and stay —— make a save on the stamps, they're expensive. ben, have you got they're expensive. ben, have you got the christmas presents at the sorting office in swindon? i think this is all for her because thatis i think this is all for her because that is what —— she likes to shop online. we are at the swindon sorting office, one of many across the country and this place is clearly pretty busy right now, they will deal with 2 million parcels, cards and letters every single day until christmas, a really busy time. they take on extra staff to make sure they got enough to cope. let me introduce you to paul and amanda. full, you are one of the bosses, and amanda is from the greetings card association. paul, how do you get this right every year? it is a massive undertaking. it is and we have got a great operational team. we start planning back injanuary, ready for this special event. we bring in lots of, 23,000 support

workers, temporary workers to support the core 120,000. we take on extra parcel facilities. we have got six parcel sorting centres dedicated to supporting the christmas peak. a huge amount of planning and effort bya huge amount of planning and effort by a great network. amanda, what is so interesting is that we are co nsta ntly so interesting is that we are constantly told we are sending fewer letters now but christmas cards are still big business and we are buying more than ever. we send 1 billion christmas cards nearly last year in the uk and the british send more cards than any other nation in per capita. interestingly, 18—34 —year—olds are sending more cards thana —year—olds are sending more cards than a generation ago. cards are the way to send a really tangible special message to someone you care about. it is interesting that we buy the cards on the high street so good news for that story, to. very much so, 94% of cards are bought in a high street store. online is obviously a factor but people like to see the card and feel it and open it. nice to see you both, amanda and

paul. just a few top tips, because remember, you still have time to send the cards you need to. second class, you have to have them in a post by the 18th of december, and for first class, you've got to have them in by the 20th. special delivery, you've got another couple of days. your're watching business live. our top story: european union leaders say the brexit withdrawal agreement is "not open for renegotiation", despite appeals from the uk prime minsiter theresa may. the deadlock is taking its toll, as companies scale back uk spending and investors pull billions out of britain. a quick look at how the markets are faring. we showed you the opening earlier. they have been open for 45 minutes and europe is really tracking what is going on in the rest of the world in terms of losses that we saw in

asia as well. some data that has come out in the last few minutes, the private sector in france has contracted for the first time in two and a half years, due to disruption, they think, to business, caused by they think, to business, caused by the series of protests we have seen and blockages which have swept right through the country in the last month. business executives have been talking to the people who put together that survey, the pmi data, so that came out in nasty moments. —— the last few moments. now let's get the inside track on the week that was. brexit is obviously very much on people's minds here in the uk, but in europe there are plenty of other issues to keep us on our toes. and who better to be the virgil to our dante than our economics correspondent andrew walker, guiding us through this hell. not in italy, though. we are referring to the inferno, where virgil the referring to the inferno, where virgilthe —— referring to the inferno, where virgil the —— alleged ante through hell and acted as his guide, so you can lead us through hell. has it been hellish? and italy is where we are going to start. we have got this

long—standing, many months of stand—off between the european commission and italy over the government's plans for the budget, the new government that was formed earlier in the year, and they want to increase their borrowing needs in the next couple of years to meet some election commitments and the european commission has been arguing that what they are doing is incompatible with euro zone rules for government finances. the italian government has responded and reduced the amount it is proposing to spend and borrow in the coming years. but not enough, the european commission says they are moving in the right direction but this new vigour for a deficit, next year of 2.0a%, the european commission says that is still too high and italy needs to go further. at the same time, you mentioned those protests in france, president macron's response to that, to step back from the fuel tax increases that he is proposing, is going to increase the french

government's borrowing needs and we could easily see a bit of a stand—off with the european commission over that coming up as well. let's talk about what is going on with the european central bank. this week, they ended the emergency measures they brought in in 2012 because of the european debt crisis. ata time because of the european debt crisis. at a time when the eurozone's growth is slowing. is it curious timing or long overdue? it is curious timing, i think. you long overdue? it is curious timing, ithink. you mention long overdue? it is curious timing, i think. you mention some of those signs that we have had just this morning, reports from france but we already know that euro growth slowed significantly in the most recent figures. there is an element of one of them that because of disruptions to car production. —— eurozone growth. the disruptions are associated with emissions testing procedures. but a lot of people think the eurozone economy could do with a bit more support. what the european central bank is thinking primarily is that it does believe that its central objective, to get inflation close to 2%, it is

actually lower, or it has been a lot lower than that, is more or less on track. i think that is at the front of its mind but there's a lot of resentment to this quantitative easing programme, this buying of government assets, particularly in germany. it is hard to resist the idea there is a bit of politics behind the move. why particularly in germany? i think it has got to do with a kind of historical preoccupation that has built up in peoples minds associated with the hyperinflation that generally experienced in the 1920s, 1923. it was very experienced in the 1920s, 1923. it was very much associated with a central bank that was printing money at the time and there is this kind of view that there is a distaste for that kind of approach in germany, even though, it must be said, we have never been remotely near hyperinflation in the ecb. in fact, inflation persisted that being rather too low for the ecb's taste for a long time. but some things are

so etched in the memory and the national psyche. absolutely. one wonders whether or not all of this has left the european central bank with any firepower for the next global turn down because there will be one at some point? their well and in terms of interest rates, it has not got any further firepower, it is keeping interest rates at the all—time low, one of its particular rates is actually below zero at the moment, and it is going to keep that on current plans until sometime next year. but i suppose that one piece of ammunition it has got in its locker is to resume the quantitative easing but bear in mind there is a limited supply of the kind of assets that it has been buying. there are still some out there but they won't last forever. talking about the wto, it looks like it is running out of judges so who is to blame? so the wto has an appeal body which hears appeals against judgments over trade disputes that are made by panels. the panels are fine, there's plenty

of people to do that, but the appeal procedure needs a minimum of three people who are appointed as semipermanentjudges people who are appointed as semipermanent judges and it people who are appointed as semipermanentjudges and it is now down to three, so in other words, everyjudge has to be involved in everyjudge has to be involved in every appeal case. the reason is the us has resisted the appointment of newjudges when existing ones‘ terms expire. i think you will ask me why but it is because they have some major reservations about the way in which the wto‘s dispute procedure works. they think it has been much too active and intrusive. the reason it is in the news this week is that the european union and a few other countries came up with some proposals that were intended to address some of the us‘s concerns but the us said no, that‘s not good enough. we have threejudges but the us said no, that‘s not good enough. we have three judges at the moment, and two more of them have their terms expiring in about a year so then we would be down to one,

whose nationality, interestingly enough, is chinese. although the americans may not like that, but it is of practical significance because she won‘t be able to hear any cases on her own if we get to that situation. so washington is deliberately trying to sabotage the work of the wto, would that be fair? that is certainly the way some people see it, but the us would argue i think that what they are doing is trying to improve the way the wto operates. they can't improve it if it does not have anyjudges.” think they take the view that it is worth this kind of throwing sand in the works, if you like, to —— to try to get the reforms they think necessary. it‘s not just to get the reforms they think necessary. it‘s notjust about the dispute procedure, incidentally, the us also has wider concerns about the way in which china uses its wto membership and that would be even harder to resolve. andrew, thank you very much indeed. in a moment we‘ll take a look through the business pages, but first

let‘s just hear a little of what eu leaders had to say in brussels, as they made clear that the brexit withdrawal agreement was "not open for renegotiation". the european council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of ireland. and ensure the integrity of the single market. it is the union‘s firm determination to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by the 31st of december, 2020, alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered. i would like to tell our british friends that of course, we need the yes of the house of commons but we also need the yes of the european parliament. both parliaments are important. one is continental, the other is insular,

but the two have the same importance. we asked you on twitter to talk to us we asked you on twitter to talk to us about what you think a gender stereotype really is and whether or not it matters that gender stereotypes are used in advertising? the reason we are talking about it is because from june of next year, what are deemed to be harmful gender stereotypes, for example, one gender being unable to complete a task for example because of their gender, so let‘s ta ke example because of their gender, so let‘s take women parking, for example all men being unable to change a nappy, those stereotypes will be banned. i'm the best parallel parker out there, by the way, in the west! i do stories on our website and also on the guardian website. let‘s go through some of the comments. we've had lots of tweets. joanne says, "of course no one should be unnecessarily offended. some issues are rightly unacceptable but don‘t we live in a

society where there is an assumption that all people are easily offended these days? amy says, "there's a lack of respect for other peoples opinions". wayne says, "the only opinions". wayne says, "the only opinions that seem to matter are the other 30 who complain and the other 57 million don‘t come into it". he does not think there is anything to be offended by. we want to go through some of the things that would be banned in such circumstances, this is on the bbc website at the moment. some of the issues they said were problematic adverts that showing a man relaxing while a woman is solely responsible for doing the cleaning. sounds like my life! no comment! she's always getting me to clean up after her. where‘s my christmas card? getting me to clean up after her. where's my christmas card? still in the post. situations that depict a man or woman failing to succeed and adverts that belittle a man for carrying out stereo typical female tasks. wrong, wrong. that‘s it from business live today. there will be more business news throughout the day on the bbc live web page and on world business report. have a good weekend.

good morning. we are going to get some fairly disruptive weather moving in over the weekend, some heavy snow and some strong winds through saturday and into sunday. before we get there, friday, today is going to be fairly quiet. we are going to get some sunshine. it has been cold and frosty this morning. sunny spells for much of england, wales and up into scotland. may be a few showers down the eastern coasts. the northern ireland, the far south—west of england, a bit more cloudy with a few spots of rain potentially. the wind is not as strong as yesterday but still a cold day, with maximum temperatures 3—6 degrees. tonight we start to see out thickening in the west and more persistent rain moving in. towards eastern and central areas, with clear skies, it will turn quite frosty, with temperatures down just below freezing. not as frosty out towards the west. we will change the

wind direction over the weekend. we will have that south—easterly being replaced by a south—westerly and thatis replaced by a south—westerly and that is what is bringing in these weather systems. that is what will move its way in, hit the cold air, and it will turn to snow. most of the snow will be over the higher ground of scotland and four northern parts of england. there will be some ice around as well. there will be strong when to go with all of that. disruption is likely. let‘s have a look during saturday, as the rain moves in, it will be rain across wales and the south—west of england, northern ireland, but for the pennines and up into scotland, it will fall readily as snow. quite a cold day, temperatures three or four in eastern areas but less cold out towards the south—west. still with a fairly strong when so it will feel cold. temperatures perhaps feeling like they are below freezing. snow settling over the higher ground of the pennines, 2—5 centimetres, 10—20 centimetres over higher ground of scotla nd centimetres over higher ground of scotland but even over the central

belt of scotland, there‘s the risk of some snow falling here and settling which could cause some problems if you are travelling. strong winds taking us through the night into sunday. that area of low pressure moving through. some gale force winds expected for some of us as well. sunday, it gets better because it all moves away, some showers moving into the south—west but for many on sunday, a drier day with lighter winds. temperatures still struggling at about 4—7 degrees but gradually it will get milder as the day goes on and into next week. goodbye. welcome to bbc news. i‘m kasia madera, live at the eu summit in brussels — the headlines at nine. eu diplomats describe theresa may‘s perfomance at the summit as "bad", as the bloc‘s leaders warn the brexit withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation: the union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its certification. it is not open for renegotiation.

theresa may warns the eu that it risks an accidental no—deal brexit, but european leaders tell may to provide more clarity on what she wants. also in today‘s news... police in france shoot dead the gunman who attacked strasbourg‘s christmas market. unions warn britain has suffered the worst pay squeeze for centuries,