this is business live from bbc news with ben thompson and sally bundock. to raise, or not to raise? as the federal reserve deliberates a hike in interest rates, president trump steps in with another warning. live from london, that's our top story on wednesday. mr trump warns the fed not to raise rates yet again — despite unemployment reaching a 49—year low. we a 49—year low. will have the details. also in the programme... a 49—year low. within the last hour, drug giants glaxosmithkline and pfizer say they'll combine their consumer health care divisions. the combined unit will have sales of almost $13 billion. and japanese technology giant softbank raised a record amount for its mobile unit in the world's second—biggest—ever stock market

flotation, but the shares have slumped in a disappointing debut. we'll be live in the region for the latest. and a christmas dinner with all the trimmings. we'll be finding out from one turkey farmer the challenges facing businesses which are highly seasonal. we would love to hear from you. are you swayed by what is on offer next to the till in the supermarket? a study suggests shoppers buy almost a fifth less junk food when it is removed from the checkout. there has been a reduction in the goods on sale, sweets and the like, by the pills. get in touch to tell us by the pills. get in touch to tell us if you are an impulse shopper. —— by the tills. hello and a warm welcome to business live. there is a lot to fit in.

the us central bank, the federal reserve, is due to wind up its final meeting of the year later today and is widely expected to hike interest rates. it last raised rates in september — the third time this year. the federalfunds rate now sitting at between 2% and 2.25%. the us economy is doing well. unemployment is atjust 3.7% — the lowest rate in 49 years. ahead of the decision, president trump stepped up the pressure on the federal reserve to stay put. in a tweet on tuesday, he warned the fed against what he described as yet another mistake and he urged policymakers to, "feel the market, don'tjust go by meaningless numbers. good luck!" let us talk some more about this. mike bell, global market strategist atjp morgan. good morning. what do you think will happen today? i am assuming you are with the majority, looking at a rate hike? i think we will get a rate rise and the questions will be about

next year. what about the press conference, what will he say? he will note the fat wage pressures are building in the us, wage growth accelerating, very low unemployment rate —— he will note the fact. against that, you have the risks coming from the trade concerns and a bit of a slowdown globally in terms of both china and also in europe. they have to balance those factors. next year, they will probably put up rates only twice the better four times this year. how optimistic is jp morgan about 2019 and 2020 for the us? what is clear is us growth will slow and perhaps quite materially, so this year, growth has been supported by fiscal stimulus, the tax cuts, adding about 1% probably onto growth. in the first half of next year, still a little bit of a kicker to come from the child tax credits, but after that, us growth should stop to this ——

should start to slow. 2020, the risks for the economy starts to build. to what degree? many are saying the us could be in recession in 2020 which sitting here now with growth around 4%, it feels quite ha rd to growth around 4%, it feels quite hard to believe on some levels? your thoughts? next year us growth will come in lower than most people expect, slowing to below 2% growth rate. 0nce expect, slowing to below 2% growth rate. once we head into 2020, the risks of a recession certainly start to rise. and a president that wants to rise. and a president that wants to be elected in that year, what will it mean? -- re-elected. prior to the mittens, you would have got more tax cuts. but now the republicans do not have controlling congress, they have limited power to keep the economy going through 2020 —— prior to the midterms. he does not have much control, if the economy does start to slow. when we

get news from the fed, we will update you. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. drugs giants glaxosmithkline and pfizer are to combine their health care divisions to create a business with combined sales of $12.7 billion. gsk will have a 68% stake and pfizer 32%. glaxosmithkline's chief executive emma walmsley will chair the newjoint venture. we'll have more on that with out business editor in just a few minutes. british businesses have criticised politicians for focusing on in—fighting, rather than preparing for brexit, warning that there's insufficient time to get ready for a no—deal scenario. with 100 days to go before the uk leaves the eu, business groups say they've been watching in horror the ongoing rows in westminster. they say the idea that no—deal can be managed is not credible. billionaire entrepreneur elon musk has unveiled a prototype tunnel in los angeles, designed to transport cars at high speed around the city.

it's only 1.5km long so far, but the goal is a network of tunnels to alleviate chronic traffic congestion. the project is being developed by mr musk‘s construction outfit, called the boring company. anything but! the mobile unit of the japanese tech company softbank, a bit of a damp squib. it floated in tokyo but the shares closed down more than 40% on the debut. investors are worried about profits and worried they will be hit by a price war between japanese mobile phone companies —— 1496 japanese mobile phone companies —— 14% on the debut. 0ur reporter tells us 14% on the debut. 0ur reporter tells us why there was such a whopping valuation and why the company is one to watch. what does this robot, saudi arabia and yoda have

to do with one another? they are all linked to softbank, the japanese conglomerate, a huge cluster of companies. it is raising 23.5 billion us dollars by selling shares in one of its businesses on the tokyo stock exchange. now, this makes it the world's second—biggest share sale after alibaba in 2014. but this isn'tjust some eye—popping ipo or initial public offering. it could possibly be something that ends up changing your life. here's how. one of the things softbank does with its cash is investing in future technologies and artificial intelligence. for instance, it is making robots to help humans in their homes, shops, and even in schools. it also runs a $100 billion investment vehicle called the vision fund. led by softbank founder masayoshi son. he is pumping cash into companies, transforming many aspects of everyday life. take transportation. together with toyota, he is investing in self driving

vehicles that may one day act as hospital shuttles, or mobile retail shops. he is also backing ai in health care to do things like predict disease outbreaks. but softbank is not without controversy. it is sticking with the saudi arabian government as an investment partner, despite an outcry over the murder of journalist jamaal khashoggi. and masayoshi son has a mixed track record. softbank more than 90% of its value during the dot—com bubble in the early 2000s. but he believes in going with his gut, much like yoda from star wars, who he cites as an investment inspiration. feel the force! mr son has vowed to start a new fund every two to three years and to bankroll ai

in an even bigger way. softbank‘s ipo mayjust be the start of all of that. feel the force! the numbers overnight. asia pretty mixed — there wasn't much to inspire investors after the tedious session on wall street. us markets saw a decent bounce back during the session yesterday, but only managing to finish marginally higher. there's still nervousness over the federal reserve's interest rate decision, and president trump's threat to shut down the government over funding for the mexican border wall. we'll get that fed decision later today. in the uk, we'll get the latest reading of inflation for november. forecasts suggest a dip to 2.3% from 2.4%. recently we saw that uk average earnings grew by 3.3% — its highest rate in ten years. workers might feel a little bit

better off in their pocket, more wages, the cost of living is not rising quite as quickly. good news as far as that is concerned. we will get that figure from the office for national statistics in about 15 minutes' time. let's get more now on the deal between glaxosmithkline and pfizer we mentioned earlier. our business editor simon jack. we have got on bbc online panadol and cha pstick firms we have got on bbc online panadol and chapstick firms and megamerger. glaxosmithkline has two big units, one is the consumer products, things like sensor —— chapstick, and it has rnd pharmaceutical vaccines, oncology. a lot of pressure on glaxosmithkline to spin off the health care division and today we haveit health care division and today we have it doing it along with pfizer, two giants giving birth to a joint baby because it will have global sales of $13 billion. they have the

rationale that the business is less risky, higher cash flows, and by splitting it off, you get more, the parts will be worth more than the sum was before. emma walmsley, she has not been at the helm of glaxosmithkline for a long time. really interesting, emma walmsley‘s background is in consumer products, she came from l'0real. it was thought she would have a focus on consumer products but what has been happen, she will be the chair and she will remain chief executive of the pharmaceutical business, she will end up running the bit people thought was not her speciality, a big move for her. people have been calling for the break—up of gsk for some time, this is part of the programme, and both of the businesses, gsk and the new

business, based in the uk. thank you for now, simon. more detail online as ever. still to come. 15 million turkeys a year — and that's just in the uk — we meet the firm that rears our traditional christmas favourite. and the guinness world record for plucking a turkey, five minutes, pretty impressive! you're with business live from bbc news. if you stick with your mobile phone contract or mortgage provider for years on end, you might be losing money. loyalty loses you money. an inquiry by the competition and markets authority found that companies in five key markets are charging their loyal customers too much. chief executive andrea is with us this morning.

explain these findings, not surprising, but pretty damning? we looked at five markets in detail, mobile, broadband, insurance, mortgage, savings. we found that many consumers are paying significantly more than consumers who frequently switch and look for good deals in these markets. essentially, the people who are not switching, what they are paying for is cheaper deals they offer to new customers? they were new on a cheap deal and if you stick with them, you pay over the odds to compensate? that is the business model in a number of these sectors, yes. what can you do to stop that? the main problem, we think, is essentially vulnerable consumers are usually in a position where they pay more than others. if you look from a furnace point of view, it is a problem. —— fairness point of view. we have

launched a programme, the financial conduct authority and 0fcom, for them to address this issue. there are number of initiatives. we are launching enforcement activities, looking into antivirus software companies and we are probably going to look into other sectors as well, and in parallel, 0fcom and the fca are addressing problems in the markets they regulate. why is it still going on? i have been subject to this as well. i got a quote for an insurance renewal £1000 more than ifi an insurance renewal £1000 more than if i shopped around and when someone else —— somewhere else. why are firms allowed to do this and consumers are not voting with their feet and moving? some consumers are switching, others are not. the fca's looking at this issue of insurance and one of the possible options is to have price caps to try to limit the gap between the prices in the market. 0bviously, the gap between the prices in the market. obviously, the concern is as a lwa ys market. obviously, the concern is as always that you like this kind of

price competition because it helps new providers to come into markets and you need to balance the considerations. good to talk to you, from the competition and markets authority. your're watching business live. our top story... the us central bank, the federal reserve, will wind up its final meeting of the year later today and is widely expected to hike interest rates. by by o.25%. the us economy is doing well. some notable names disagree, including the president. —— disagree with the rate rise. tis the season to eat turkey, but have you ever thought about the work that goes into it, to make sure you get it in time for christmas? in the uk, 15 million turkeys were slaughtered in 2017, according to the british poultry association.

of those, the majority — 9 million — were reared for christmas. around 1.5 million to 2 million turkeys sold in the uk are free range. 0ne company which has been rearing premium turkeys for almost half a century in the uk is kelly bronze, a favourite of the chefs nigella lawson and delia smith. very well—known the uk. paul kelly is the managing director of kelly bronze and joins us now. yourfamily your family business? yeah, formed in1971. your family business? yeah, formed in 1971. you were eight years old. hence the guinness world record for plucking a turkey, you are the holder by a long margin. very fast plucker indeed, i have been doing it my whole life. i have plucked chicken very unsuccessfully. i made a right hash of it. you could still cook it afterwards! tell us about

your business. you have been long established, premium free range turkeys, but you are not a seasonal business, all year—round business? we are producing hatching eggs and chicks in the summer months and in the spring and we grow the turkeys for christmas, very seasonal. seasonal jobs throughout the for christmas, very seasonal. seasonaljobs throughout the year, but the business is very labour intensive, partisan product. at this time of year, you need the labour to make sure they get to the supermarkets, how do you plan that? huge logistic problem? we are planning now for christmas 2021. the breeding stock point of view. we have to bring seasonal labour in for the weeks we need them. injanuary, february, march, april, we have no work, we cannot employ 60 people. we have worked for the eggs and hatching chicks. you need seasonal

labour, 60 people in the run—up to christmas, and... 90 in the run-up to christmas. and in the hatching period, a0. to christmas. and in the hatching period, 40. usually people coming from poland, what will you do next year? hopefully, it will prevail. people say i am scaremongering when i say we will have to downsize, we will have no choice. the 70 plume and 80s, there were people who would get their hands dirty, but that is no longer true. the workers with you are plucking turkeys, a specific skill, it is not easy! that upsets me when people say it is unskilled labour, the team have been coming back 15 years. they are very skilled at what they do. how labour—intensive it is and how important it is to get it right at this time of year, what happens if you do not have the staff. we will

have to downsize the business. in the early 80s, the only thing holding us back was that we could not get staff. when we did have access to the eu labour pool, we could get people who had agricultural backgrounds, they would get their hands dirty. in the 80s and 90s, kids go to college and university and they do not want to do manual labour. that has been the growth of our business and without the polish team, we would not be where we are today. you export, big in the us, you have a turkey farm in the us, i imagine it is big business. thanksgiving and christmas. the potential is enormous. in terms of the future for kelly bronze, how do you see it? we have business in the uk, germany and america. common sense will prevail. but if we cannot get the labour, we will have to downsize and concentrate on america and europe. you will grow in countries where you

can get the labour? exactly. what do i need to make sure my turkey is great this christmas? do not cook it too long? another half an hourjust too long? another half an hourjust to be safe, disaster. cook it, get a meat thermometer, up to temperature, ta ke meat thermometer, up to temperature, take it out. people cremate their turkeys! you also have beef on christmas day and wouldn't you? yeah, my father grows beef as a hobby, we have a rib of beef and a wonderful kelly bronze turkey. great to have you. very busy time, i'm sure. i have never heard the word plucking so much in an interview? in a moment, we'll take a look through the business pages. but first, here's a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. stay up—to—date with all the day's business news as it happens on the bbc‘s business live page. there's insight and analysis from our team of editors right around the globe and we want to hear from you.

get involved on the bbc‘s business live web page at bbc.com/business. on twitter, we're @bbcbusiness and you can find us on facebook at bbc money. business live, on tv, and online. what you need to know, when you need to know. simon derrick from bank of new york mellon joins us. good morning. interesting stories in the papers, particularly this one in the papers, particularly this one in the independent this morning, shoppers by 17%junk the independent this morning, shoppers by 17% junk food when the independent this morning, shoppers by 17%junk food when it the independent this morning, shoppers by 17% junk food when it is removed from the checkout. we know we are guilty of a bit of an impulse buy of a chocolate bar, but 17%! remarkable. bah humbug, just before christmas! it seems fairly self—evident that if you remove chocolate from the counter, people will stop buying them. it does seem

like a large number. if you look at it, interestingly enough, not co mforta ble it, interestingly enough, not comfortable totally with the way the study was carried out. there may be... but it suggests we should try to avoid the suites at the sweet counter. the worst thing of all being a parent, when they were very little, at the checkout, massive shop, you could not go anywhere, got to get it on there and pay for it, going bananas about the bag of wine gums, the chewing gum, they want it all, a use to drive me around the twist that supermarkets would put me in that position —— used to drive me. yeah, it is an important story, clearly in terms of... do we need to change what we do in supermarkets? absolutely. the timing seems slightly odd, five days before christmas, thinking about chocolate sa nta, christmas, thinking about chocolate santa, but in the broad scheme of things, the right thing to do. all

of the best offers an junk food, rarely unhealthy food, a viewer says. when they are on offer, resista nce says. when they are on offer, resistance is futile. another says, buying less, mainly shops online, the desire to buy with your eyes is less. no impulse involved, another, iama less. no impulse involved, another, i am a determined and deliberate snack purchaser! don't mess with him! another story we are looking at, this conversation on going about becoming a cashless society, more and more pubs, restau ra nts, society, more and more pubs, restaurants, retailers, other organisations, they say, we do not wa nt organisations, they say, we do not want cash, you can only play with a card, and app, and this article is looking at the impact on those who are not in a position to give up cached just yet. two sides to this. clearly, we all like... if you live

in london, pretty much everything that happens seems to be done digitally. if i think during the course of a typical day, probably the only time i use crashes to buy coffee in the morning at the railway station —— i use cash. it is good from the government and central bank perspective. you can track cash through the system so less opportunities for the money to go out, lots of reasons why people like it, but it is clearly bad when it comes to living in a rural area, issues with technology, struggling with it, plenty of people get disadvantaged by this and this is what it is about. very vulnerable people. simon, before you go, always interested to get your view on the fed, you have been watching the central bank the decades, you are currency trader. they will struggle. they will obviously hike rates but the question is what they say afterwards. they risk upsetting the

markets, , afterwards. they risk upsetting the markets,, but then the markets might start to worry. it could be just as disturbing... dovish, too negative, too cautious. i think one rate hike next year. just one? yeah. we will hold you to that, simon! of course. you always do. really nice to see you. thank you for your company and messages. keep them coming in. you can look at the replies on twitter. we will see you soon. bye—bye. good morning. yesterday was very wet

and windy, gusts up to 80 miles an hourin and windy, gusts up to 80 miles an hour in the west of scotland, heavy rain moving east. today is much quieter thankfully. lengthy sunny spells expected. sums showers and those will be in central and eastern areas white heavy this morning but drifting away —— some showers. by this afternoon, showers can to southern and western coastal areas through this afternoon, much lighter winds compared to yesterday, still coming from the south, south west, and temperatures down a smidgen on yesterday. lengthy sunny spells as mentioned for central, eastern and up mentioned for central, eastern and up into the north—east of scotland. tonight, more showers drifting east but there will be clear spells in between the showers, temperatures down close to freezing in the far

north of scotland. 0therwise down close to freezing in the far north of scotland. otherwise for most of us, relatively mild night. going into thursday, again, quite showery in the morning. by the afternoon, showers confined to northern and western areas, so for northern ireland, southern scotland, the north of england. . 0dd shower elsewhere. for much of england and wales, the midlands south, lengthy sunny spells again on thursday and temperatures up to 9—11. friday, the next weather system pushing in from the south—west. bringing milder conditions in southern areas. there will be sunny spells developing in wales and southern england. rain edging into northern ireland and southern scotland later on friday. good spells of sunshine in the south. into the weekend, dividing

line again, milder in the south, cooler air to the north, by sunday, fabrics of rain brought in by a weather system in the south dutchman crepe outbreaks of rain. by sunday, with the rain moving in —— outbreaks of rain brought in by a weather system in the south. have a good day. bye—bye. you're watching bbc news at 9am with me, joanna gosling. the headlines: a plan for immigration after brexit. the government says it will prioritise skills not nationality, but there's no specific target for reducing levels. it's... our objective is clear. it's about bringing net migration down, the current levels are unsustainable. we are live at amsterdam's chappel

airport with air travel a priority at the day the european commission publishes its no—deal brexit advice. the uk's biggest business groups appeal to mps to avoid a no—deal brexit — warning hundreds of thousands of companies won't be ready. a warning that millions of people could be disadvantaged if the uk becomes a cashless society. lewis hamilton says he's "super proud" of his hometown stevenage