and the uk political commentator steve richards thank you for breaking off from your christmas shopping. now, if we look at the prospects for the year, the year just at the prospects for the year, the yearjust gone, i suppose it is no great surprise to end with the united states as the year ends with the united states almost in shutdown. at least part of the federal government. is this leadership? i think 2018 will go down as the year the trump presidency went off the rails, culminating in this shutdown. but looking back, he has had an unprecedented turnover in his administration. he has lost two national security advisers, two chief of staff, a secretary of the, justice department attorney general as well as just recently the departure of matt as defence secretary. huge turmoil that he is

governing by chaos while at the same time under unprecedented investigation by special counsel robert muller, although he has now handed down or secured more than 30 indictments and guilty pleas, is really only getting started. we don't know what he has got but i think the big turning point we will see in 2019 with special counsel investigation. the shutdown that we saw happen last night over his border wall funding is really a push by trump to try to pay to his base and stick to his guns in terms of getting this extra $5 billion for border wall funding, but the republicans have control both houses of congress and he hasn't been able to get his border wall funding and it doesn't look like it's going to get any easier for him and it doesn't look like it's going to get any easierfor him and i think it has opened up a split within the

republican party. republicans are ready to do a deal, a stopgap funding bill, and they are in a state of disbelief that he has continued to push the head of this, the head with this, in the christmas season, sending people home, as well as forcing people to work without pgy- as forcing people to work without pay. it is rather shocking way to end 2018. there are lots of things that trump borders will say, actually, this has been a good year, not least the economy and donald trump pushing back hard against china. is that an area, a fairer assessment to say that he has enjoyed some success? in terms of the economy, and this may be where we see the republican party splitting with trump in the second half of the year, we have seen a fall in the stock market and that is the kind of thing that worries

donald trump. he keeps an eye on the stock market. almost as if it is running opinion poll.|j stock market. almost as if it is running opinion poll. i think it will be alarm bells for him. the big event was the mid—term elections. there are two ways to spin this. the democrats did well in the house but ido democrats did well in the house but i do feel that there was an expectation that trump would have gotten more of a battering in the midterms. i know the numbers did support republicans, they were going in witha support republicans, they were going in with a mathematical advantage into the mid—term elections, particularly in the senate... because they had fewer than double seats to defend. exactly. but at the end of the day, the republicans did increase their majority in the senate and that was a boost. the sheer churn of personnel at the top of the trump administration is unprecedented. but the danger is that this masks some very significant domestic policy changes that are happening in the us. and

nobody is covering it in the media. the trump drama is dominating. the judiciary, not only do we have the supreme court nominee, the brett kavanaugh nomination was a huge news story this year, but at lower levels of the judicial system, the republican party have been packing it with conservative justices and thatis it with conservative justices and that is going to have an impact in america long after donald trump leaves office and that is one of the main reasons a lot of his supporters voted for him. they held their nose but they voted for donald trump because he said he was going to hold up because he said he was going to hold up their conservative values. and he delivered on that. the brett kavanaugh delivered on that. the brett kava naugh example is delivered on that. the brett kavanaugh example is the extreme but it is not the first. he has delivered conservative judges and thatis delivered conservative judges and that is what republican activists say they want. he uses his power where he can. the power of patronage is huge. he is heavily constrained in some areas but that is an area where he isn't. let me say some of

the things which make me feel warm to him. this will be counterintuitive. you were talking about leadership, one of the things that protects an american president from intense scrutiny at times is the order of the presidency. he has humanised the presidency. i like the way he does two our press conferences. in the past it was three questions each if you are lucky. he is there for hours. i don't mind the fact he attacks journalists or political leaders. there is a transparency. but weeds are beyond belief, what you read, but i think that meshes of communication has changed the way president will have to engage with the people for ever. i am president will have to engage with the people for ever. lam interested in the way he breaks through barriers to try and get some peace process with north korea. nothing of substance yet but he does it because he does whatever he wants. so there

are ways in which i think... there are ways in which i think... there are many catastrophes arising from all this but the way he has changed the nature of the presidency and leadership and scrutiny and accountability is quite interesting. 0n accountability is quite interesting. on all those points, accountability is quite interesting. 0n allthose points, i accountability is quite interesting. on all those points, i would take a different view. with his to our press conferences, he reminds me of a dictator, or north korea, is this an impulsive decision? this is a president who would not only tweets, and that does bypassed the medium of the media, but he seems to me that he is actually making policy on the back of things he has seen on fox news. he watches something and all ofa news. he watches something and all of a sudden we have a tweet about it. a president who doesn't listen to his advisers is very worrying. he has got the power of patronage but thatis has got the power of patronage but that is worrying. and an interesting example this week with the decision over troops in syria and

afghanistan. we understand from things that have been written about life behind the scenes in the white house this year that he has said he wa nts house this year that he has said he wants out of afghanistan. what is the point? what is it achieving? he is doing it in syria. that is leadership but it is apparently without counsel. for the europeans, it has been a fantastic opportunity to have european defence because he cannot be trusted. and on top of it, the european defence, which the british basically killed in 2018 it is becoming a big issue because you can't rely on the british because they are out of the eu, you can't rely on trump because he is unpredictable, he doesn't care about nato, so it is time for europe to go on its own way on defence and in

fa ct, on its own way on defence and in fact, it is important that governments in europe increase their defence budget because i think american protection has gone with trump. to pick upon your point, i don't think it is leadership. you have some people, noninterventionist on the left, saying, they wanted this for a while, you have people like rand paul, but the way he did it was lacking in leadership. he did not consult his allies, he did not consult anyone in congress, he pushed it through without a plan or strategy. what is the us strategy in syria? what strategy. what is the us strategy in syria ? what is strategy. what is the us strategy in syria? what is the strategy in afghanistan? there has been a lack of thought over that. i think what we are going to see now is trump unleashed. he has been held back from his worst impulses by a circle

of advisers and now we are going to see america first in its foreign policy without any restraints whatsoever. but that is a good thing for europe because you have an america who doesn't care about europe and that is good for europe. i don't think it is. we don't need a president like that. i think the scariest thing is what does he do with nato ? scariest thing is what does he do with nato? but that's why i said the only way for nato, because the americans are out of it, you have germany and france. let's talk about the syria decision and the broad implications in the middle east because this is a part of the world where so much has been changing. 0ur perception of countries has changed. we have the iran nuclear do with the americans going one way and the british and other european nations

going in another direction. israel with its decision to move the embassy, a symbolic decision, but it is interesting in the wake politics has been developing over decades in the middle east. and we have what is happening in syria where president assad and the in a more strong position than he began it. for me it isa position than he began it. for me it is a victory for president putin, all people who are basically against peace, and there is no voice of peace, and there is no voice of peace in the middle east and also the middle east, with the withdrawal of the americans, the good news of 2018 is what happened in saudi arabia. the real face 2018 is what happened in saudi arabia. the realface has come out because they ordered the killing of this journalist, they are responsible for what happened in yemen, almost a war crime, and the

west put him on a pedestal. but saudi arabia has shown its real face. it is a dictatorship, autocratic regime. one of the positives that came out of the brutal murder, it has propelled the issue of yemen to the forefront of american political discussion and also has raised questions about america's long—standing relationship with saudi arabia. donald trump's first trip abroad was to saudi arabia, his son—in—law has been hugely influential in trying to cultivate through the links with saudi arabia and also using that as a way into the middle east peace process, trying to get saudi arabia on board. but that has been one of the big changes, towards the second half of the year, and if we are talking about the republican party, what we have seen this year is that donald trump has hijacked the

republican party. they have ruled in behind him in a way that is so disappointing for so many people, but saudi arabia, they have flexed their muscles. we saw a senate resolution, a very strong message from some of trump smacked strongest allies, like the south carolina senator, so we allies, like the south carolina senator, so we are allies, like the south carolina senator, so we are going to see is very strong message. but with the murder of very strong message. but with the murderofa very strong message. but with the murder of a journalist... very strong message. but with the murder of a journalist. .. which he denies anything to do with. the line has been accepted by trump and it shows in some respects the powerlessness of power. the united states condemned the murder but nothing much has happened. in britain, we were going to be really, really tough and the foreign secretary said, don't do this again, will you? this is not a coordinated, strategic response to this. it raises questions vividly. but not

much has followed in practice. the problem with the middle east is it is dependent or has been on american leadership but it also highlights the problem. trump is going to withdraw from the middle east. the syria thing is typical, let's put america first in foreign policy. the border wall with mexico means more because it tells you about the mental perception of the outside world, that the outside world is hostile... he would rather redeploy the 2000 troops in syria on the border with mexico. that is his idea of military power. it is isolationist. and i do think you will see a pushback. we have already seen will see a pushback. we have already seena will see a pushback. we have already seen a pushback from republicans in congress to this move, saying they are dismayed at the decision to pull out of syria and reduce troop levels

in afghanistan. they are very worried. the applications are enormous in terms of the balance of power in the middle east, if one could call it a balance of power, or balance of hostility, are these going to become hot areas again? the top players are resident putin, —— president putin, and the americans are out. one thing to watch, the united nations, nicky hayley stood down. she was widely seen as one of the adults in the room. the us ambassador to the un. and now donald trump has appointed someone who was formerly a fox news host to be the face of america at the un. there are reports that he is making back into not a cabinet position any more. and

that sends a signal, doesn't it? and on the israeli— palestinian issue, a real hot button topic, so that is going to be something to watch. does iran feel involved in all this? actually, the americans are backing out, they are not going to play ball over our nuclear programme, we think israel is threatening because of our nuclear programme, but given that syria, because of russian intervention, is now apparently assured, does that mean iran can say, we are in a position to start to flex our muscles? i think that the us policy has been quite consistent in a singular focus about curtailing iran's influence and that is why you have seen this extraordinary blank cheque written for the saudi regime as well as a sanctions policy and the ripping up

of the nuclear deal and that is the one area where the republicans have remained united and i think it is why some republican senators are so dismayed at this decision to retreat from syria, because they think it might give iran the upper hand. from syria, because they think it might give iran the upper handm is the problem because the economic situation is terrible in iran. they have a young population so what could happen is the political power is hampered by the economic situation. but the european union is still committed to the iran deal. they are working on the way to bypass the sanctions, but they still have that political support from europe, which you can't underestimate, and at the un level, the iranians are constantly at the un. but europe will have the post—brexit situation. un. but europe will have the post-brexit situation. vladimir putin said that the us was wise to pull its troops out of syria. he

also says it is wise for britain to leave the european union. is this —— has this been president putin's year? i think it has, has this been president putin's year? ithink it has, but has this been president putin's year? i think it has, but more important it has been a good year for the european union, which has stayed united through the negotiations on brexit. britain tried everything to try to get the support of traditional allies, the scandinavian countries, benelux. germany, they feel the european union was strong, britain was weak and terribly divided, and at the end, the european union imposed this deal on theresa may which is basically a british capitulation. deal on theresa may which is basically a british capitulationm that how it looks in dublin? ireland has ended up being at the front and ce ntre has ended up being at the front and centre of this debate. no one saw a backstop in northern ireland being such an issue. they are walking a

very, very difficult line here. britain is by far ireland's closest trade ally, and we must remember, the trade negotiations about a future deal haven't even started. when that does happen, ireland will be one of the countries, with the benelux countries and germany, arguing for as close a relationship as possible on trade. ireland have takena gamble, as possible on trade. ireland have taken a gamble, they thought they would put the backstop there because they felt that this would be used as a critical football at the final stages, the fact that it would be sacrificed ultimately by the eu. i think it is a bit sadistic to say ireland is not —— simplistic to say ireland is not —— simplistic to say ireland is not —— simplistic to say ireland is not... it is not naive. if theresa may's deal is back and there is a close enough trade relationship, that is going to be a huge political tool for ireland. if they leave without a deal, it will have backfired. but they did very

well because certainly the only issueis well because certainly the only issue is the backstop in northern ireland. let's talk about how theresa may has played this year because huge criticism, she is still standing at the end of the year, she looks a little more confident in this last week of the year than she did even ten days ago. she was magnanimous in calling in some of her opponents like jacob rees—mogg. to be counterintuitive again, she has shown in recent weeks the power ofa has shown in recent weeks the power of a prime ministerial position because everyone says she is weak and hopeless and so on but actually she decided to withdraw the vote on her deal, she decided or will decide when that vote will take place, so she has many levers to pull. however, in the wider context, it is still incredibly fragile. she didn't

do that because she was being magnanimous, she wants their vote, these internal dissenters. maybe in these internal dissenters. maybe in the end she will get them. however, i don't think she is going to get some i don't think she is going to get some legal guarantee about this so—called backstop because it would bea so—called backstop because it would be a contradiction in terms. it is an insurance policy to guarantee the soft border, basically. you can't say to one side you can't pull out of it when you like because then there is no insurers policy. what sort of insurers policy is it because if there is no—deal brexit, which would be the consequence of the vote being lost, you end up with a hard border anyway. if there is no—deal brexit, that whole arrangement falls. but it will be one of those, if there is no deal, and it is possible, it would be an extraordinary moment. when you have a british prime minister, a british chancellor, a leader of the opposition, a shadow chancellor, a

governor of the bank of england, all believing it would be a catastrophe and a majority of mps in the house of commons with that view. it could well happen, like the first world war, there are historians to say in july 1914, not a single leader of any country contemplated or wanted a warand it happened. but any country contemplated or wanted a war and it happened. but that would be the context, against the political consensus, that we just fall out, in which case the backstop will go so there is no arrangement in place of any sort. i think the dup isa in place of any sort. i think the dup is a crucial part, partners to the conservative party. a bit like a backstop in ireland, are the dup being used? how committed really would everyone be to the dup's concerns if they weren't dependent on them for votes? if you are in a situation where there is a general election, that might change things slightly, but i think they have huge leveraged at the moment. and in

terms of this year for the government, george osborne spoke this weekend, he said theresa may was a dead woman walking last year after that rather disastrous general election campaign, his argument is that the mistakes she made at the start was to embrace the 17 million who voted to leave and effectively say to the 60 million who voted to say, we are not interested in you, the decision is made, and she has ended up in the position she should have started with. i think he is right and it is fascinating because when she first became prime minister, she was in a strong position. she behaved weekly, she felt she had to reassure the brexiteers, even though she could have told them some candid troops. now she is in a weak position, she has no choice but to be assertive and tell them some candid truths about the irish border, amongst other things. she should have done it the other way around, said at the

beginning, i it the other way around, said at the beginning, lam it the other way around, said at the beginning, i am going to deliver this for you but here are some of the tough, tough obstacles. instead, she announced her red lines as if it was going to be, have your cake and eat it, and it was an utterly misguided policy. i think the thing thatis misguided policy. i think the thing that is stark relief in 2008 dean is the mistake in triggering article 50 when she had no plans and she did it under tremendous pressure, to satisfy the brexit wing of the party. i think that, coupled with the agreement to not allow a hard border with ireland, two things that ended up being... hampered the negotiation. removed room for manoeuvre and negotiate. and stepping back on the leadership theme, given trump the white house, if there had been someone else in the white house, perhaps the negotiations would have turned out differently, if they had been

someone in the white house who could pressure on the european leaders, pick up the phone, get to a good deal, this is not in any one's interest, andl deal, this is not in any one's interest, and i think people have forgotten that. now what we have is notjust weak leadership forgotten that. now what we have is not just weak leadership in washington but throughout europe. president macron is a weakened figure given the protests and the fa ct figure given the protests and the fact his economic reform push has stalled and his support has weakened. angela merkel is stepping down. there is no real leadership. the european commission is coming stronger in 2018. which is a nightmare for eurosceptics in the uk. jean-claude juncker, he has played the negotiations very well, but strangely the commission is strong. so we end 2008 dean with a stronger european commission elected by no one, elected leaders around

europe, and the united states. exactly. they couldn't get away with things without having the backing of leaders. stay united, otherwise britain... thank you all very much. we got through a lot there. next weekend we will be back with a look at what is to come in 2019. from all others on the programme, for those celebrating christmas, have a good christmas and we will see you at the end of the year. goodbye. hello. whether it is your last—minute dash to the shops or travelling to catch up with fronts

and family, at least today's weather is on your side. there is a lot of fine weather around and some sunshine this afternoon. tomorrow, the forecast a bit more problematic. we have some weather fronts that are going to come in from the atlantic and that will mean a greater and wetter story for the southern half of the uk. for the rest of today, a little ridge of high pressure will keep things pretty calm. some showers across western scotland. but generally a lot of dry weather and sunny spells. mild in the south with highs of 11 or 12. a frosty start further north across scotland will hold the temperatures back. heading out this evening, we have got a fine evening to look forward to. aside from some showers across western scotland. if you do stay up, some rain will be arriving into northern ireland, wales and the south—west of england. ahead of that, a chilly story. a frost across scotland. elsewhere, milder when the cloud and

rain arrives but that is going to make for a pretty great gate across the southern half of the uk. scotla nd the southern half of the uk. scotland will definitely do best throughout with the best of the sunshine and the drier day than today. we will have those showers in the west. some uncertainty about the northern extent of the rain. it will brighten her little as the day goes on but rain at times cloud elsewhere. however, very mild as well, 12 or 13 as the highs. on into the new week, christmas week, and it is all about high pressure building and that will kill off any weather fronts and also stopped any fresh ones coming in from the atlantic. some rain on monday. but fizzling out as the day goes by. a lot of cloud sticking around on christmas eve. elsewhere, hopefully some brighter spells. one or two areas where we could see step in patches of mist orfog

where we could see step in patches of mist or fog and that could be a little bit hazardous if you are taking to the roads. again, christmas day, high pressure will bring a lot of fine weather. they could be a frosty start. some stubborn fog and cloud. this is bbc news, i'm shaun ley. the headlines at midday. two people are arrested in connection with the drone sightings which brought gatwick airport to a standstill. passengers are still suffering delays and cancellations — but the airport aims to run a "full schedule" of flights today. a row over the money for donald trump's border wall results in a partial shutdown of the us government. a british warship arrives in the black sea in response to russia's seizure last month of three ukrainian navy vessels and their crew. also coming up this hour, transforming the lives of hundreds of babies while still in the womb. surgery for unborn babies with spinal defects is to be made routinely available on the nhs in england. and in half an hour, a festive edition of click brings us

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