and the events which, our panel predicts, will shape the year ahead. joining me today: abdel barry atwan, who writes on arab affairs janet daley whose column appears in the uk's sunday telegraph newspaper, maria margaronis from the weekly news magazine the nation, and the american michael goldfarb, host of the podcast, the first rough draft of history. i suppose this could be called that, michael. welcome to all of you. let's begin in our attempt to map out pittodrie for the year to come with the uk in europe. notjust brexit but perhaps other things on the horizon two. what are you looking for in the year ahead? the year ahead is a long projection! most likely week ahead or the next fortnight. i think were definitely going to leave, there's no question about that even though there is an awful matter of trash talk and noise, it is difficult to know not just what is going on but what eve ryo ne just what is going on but what everyone thinks because everyone is lying and dissing everybody else. but we will come out, and i don't

think there's going to be any majority in parliament for no deal that they will be some form of words and those will be fought to the last ditch. it is terribly important. so it will be iith ditch. it is terribly important. so it will be 11th minute of the 11th hour? absolutely, last 30 seconds of the last minute. but it will eventually arrive at what will be called an exit because that is absolutely imperative now. i think the campaign for absolutely imperative now. i think the campaignfora absolutely imperative now. i think the campaign for a second referendum is going to get nowhere because there is no base of popular support for such a thing and i think even the people sponsoring it are beginning to have cold feet because they realised that the result of a second referendum would be remarkably likely first. so that a nonstarter. so we will come out and it's a question of the terms and whether we stand by the terms because once you are out, you are out. then you can renegotiate the opposition. so we could actually be

back into the negotiations? no, no. one of the reasons the eu is making life so difficult is because the don't trust this particular british government and this group of toys standing behind the government to be people of their word. —— group of porgies. what kind of organisation threatens people who want to leave? mafia families quite religious cults, secret societies. how many commissars have come to your office and said if you don't do what we told you, set by brussels, we will suit you. there is no threat. that is completely rhetorical. —— we will shoot you. the threats are we will be ruined economic by the club we are going to leave. they said we have to do this because otherwise eve ryo ne have to do this because otherwise everyone will want something. so there is a wonderful perfect union ever once happened with but if we get a good deal, fml once a deal. ——

everybody else wants a deal. let's ask about the club once only. poor club! what state will it be in, will be diminished by the departure? yes, it will be but not as much as we will. the club where going to leave has a lot of problems, the two main ones are the implementation of austerity politics and a lack of democracy. the deeper problem is in as not managed to answer the fundamental problems of the uk and the rest of europe, which have to do with globalisation, the movement of industries abroad, all of those things. human migration as well, because largely by wars and global inequality. and what we are seeing now, it's a terrible testament to the phrase that the old has died at the phrase that the old has died at the new has yet to be born, morbid symptoms appear. and we have morbid symptoms appear. and we have morbid symptoms everywhere. symptoms appear. and we have morbid symptoms everywherelj symptoms appear. and we have morbid symptoms everywhere. i disagree here. i believe the saga which has taken place in britain, the

constitutional crisis, the uncertainty, the bad economy, the colla pse uncertainty, the bad economy, the collapse of the stock market, about 1000 points in the lastjust six months. i think this will make europe strong because the automotive is actually to stick together. the alternative is to keep the preserved who else in the eu in declining. they are having serious you can write problems. italy is threatening the whole eurozone. the more problem is anarchy. look at britain, the situation of this country, it is a disaster. it's not! this economy is booming. we have the biggest high—tech industry of any country. we have more coders working in this country than san francisco and new york combined. so why are we seeing so york combined. so why are we seeing so many york combined. so why are we seeing so many more york combined. so why are we seeing so many more homeless people on the

street? that's a different issue altogether. those are people who would have been on benefits, not people who would have been working. we have the lowest unemployment in re ce nt we have the lowest unemployment in recent memory fiow. we have the lowest unemployment in recent memory now. the crime rate is high. that's a policing problem. the stock market is collapsing, the compound is very weak, unemployment is high. —— the pound is weak. national health is awful. what are you talking about? the pound is weak and it is helpful to the comic about we had a devaluation of the pound which has helped our exports enormously. if you are exporting... the eu twisted arms not part of europe so we can devalue which is something thatcher understood and that's always been the case. why can't we have a referendum? the mood of the people in this country doctor

cani of the people in this country doctor can i pose a different question which are we will fix a market where we have a general election next year? no. because labour doesn't wa nt year? no. because labour doesn't want one and that's the secret to everything. might we never see jeremy corbyn fighting an election? i don't think so. i think labour even in its most insane moments, no full stops if you did win, it would bea full stops if you did win, it would be a disaster. i think he will be replaced and that is the real danger. who will replace him? at the moment, his shadow chancellor would be the candidate. it wouldn't be hilary benn or one of the moderate labour people or yvette cooper, that will be a plausible alternative but that won't happen because momentum has now got hold of all the levers. so theresa may has a year of security because she won the leadership election. in terms of her party, you don't think there will be

hmo election so she will still be in place at the end of the year? yes, i think so. let's ask about the other problem is in europe that are unresolved. we talked a bit in passing about italy, the big one is france. yes, this movement, and not even sure you would call it a movement but the popular uprising of yellow vests which began as a protest against fuel tax, i think it is one of the strangest and most interesting thing in politics. they have strong traditional right—wing elements were nationalist, xenophobic and there is a left environmentalist wing to it andl a left environmentalist wing to it and i think this is a response to the fact that neither left nor right has come up with an answer to the collapse of communities, of local cohesion, of localjobs. it's

interesting because i thought about the giletjaunes interesting because i thought about the gilet jaunes thing interesting because i thought about the giletjaunes thing for a while and are not sure, they seem to come up and are not sure, they seem to come up as regularly as, it's almost cyclical like we get recession. we had occupied, we had giletjaunes, and before occupy, we had g7 meetings and there is no coherence or ideology. occupy had an ideology, the anti—globalisation movement had an ideology. it came from the left, it was a bottom—up movement against inequality, against austerity. isn't that with the gilet jaunes? inequality, against austerity. isn't that with the giletjaunes? partly but it's also got a traditionally socially conservative element with wasn't there before. i think, socially conservative element with wasn't there before. ithink, nobody that i've read reporting on it has been able to say it's this or that. with the globalisation of the economy and globalisation of labour, the globalisation of labour has tremendous consequences on indigenous communities and i'm

afraid that the ruling intelligentsia if you like, the governing classes, have not recognised this. but so does the globalisation of finance. we've got the left noticing that and the right notice and globalisation of labour. those are big thoughts we will come back to. in the programme in the coming yearand back to. in the programme in the coming year and probably becoming months, quite seen in terms of the economy. but barry, turning to the middle east. this is a region that is really changing almost as we speak. we have protest on the streets in the sue dann against the 30 year rule this year —— of sudan. we have the decisions by the united states to pull troops out of syria, and bashar al—assad apparently were certain with diplomatic sites reopening in damascus. what for you is the standout thing we should look for in the region in the year to come? the most important thing is how president trump decided to pull

out all the american troops from syria. this is really a turning point. there are several interpretations for it. the first interpretations for it. the first interpretation that president trump decided to leave, it is completely we said we lost about $7 trillion in the middle east and gave nothing. so we had to cut our losses short and leave. there is another interpretation saying that americans are pulling out because they could bea waragainst are pulling out because they could be a war against iran in the coming year. or maybe in the coming two yea rs. year. or maybe in the coming two years. so they believe that. so he needs flex ability in case that situation arises? he doesn't want troops in syria to be captive or a target for attacks on groups. i'm saying the second interpretation. israelis are pushing for that and

are worried. what's the consequences for the region for the decision he has taken? now, the syrians believe that they are the winners. bashar al—assad is there, he is supposed to be deposed, fighting for him for the last seven years, now he is very solid and the arab nations, the arab governments, are restoring their relations with assad. the united arab emirates has opened its embassy, his isolation is broken. could we see him welcome back publicly into the family of arab nations? yes. there are a lot of preparations for that, the reopening of embassies first, second is an arab summit on march next year. already, algeria, tunisia and other countries are working to break the

isolation of syria and invite assad to the coming arab summit. so it will be different because he was kicked out in november 2011. so it could be a turning point here. what i find interesting could be a turning point here. what ifind interesting is could be a turning point here. what i find interesting is that a lot of speculation is from western commentators, is that because assad was cropped up in the bad days by iran and now you have all these arab nations, what does this mean quicks? -- popped nations, what does this mean quicks? —— popped up. the —— the turks did not consult which is why he resigned. the turks who did the heavy listing turning back ices are suddenly threatened by the turks. in the last 24 hours drive a invited assad to send troops to damascus. and barry porter israel, what you

haveis and barry porter israel, what you have is this completeness. i don't think there is any clarity because iran is strengthened all the way to the mediterranean by assad consolidating power. israel has had elections. an election there is not someone waiting to replace neta nyahu, there is not someone waiting to replace netanyahu, he will cobble together and coalition in the couple of years which will do the same thing. but russia we haven't mentioned and russia has now replaced the united states as the main outside shaper of events and i wonder what the game is between urging and and —— recipe again and putin. and what putin wants because i think erdogan will be played here admit and they will be played here admit and they will protect the turks and what happens next, i don't know. first,

the kurds are the biggest victim of the kurds are the biggest victim of the americans pulling out from syria. again, they were stabbed in the back. the americans use them to fight isis and they did a fantastic job and were —— kicked out them from the capital, they said thank you very much, go and suck sort out your problem is with erdogan they know erdogan will be harsh on them. so they decided to go to the better choice which is to go to the better choice which is to go to the assad regime, who may be much weaker than erdogan and also he is supported by the russians. much weaker than erdogan and also he is supported by the russianslj is supported by the russians.” don't think there's any long—term strategy intron's whitehouse. i think bringing the troops home is always a popular move in america underany always a popular move in america under any circumstances and this was an opportunist move because he was in trouble in other fronts. and it

conveniently serves his friend putin. did we seen that not a better but a more stable middle east? now syria is going back to the arab rang again, there will be a revision of certain policies which guided us to this mess, now this is the end of the arab spring. but it had the price of russia running the show. why not? america is abandoning. we have a lot of problems with america. ican rememberdoing have a lot of problems with america. i can remember doing this programme with you when we were both extremely critical, when obama decided his red lines can be crossed and so what? he wasn't going to do anything about it. that was considered to be absolutely lol and one of the consequences was he was abandoning the and russian —— absolutely immoral. it was americans there, the

americans controlled the area for the last 50 years. what did we have in the middle east? war in iraq, libya, syria. listen to me one minute. what president trump said, when we had saddam hussein, when we had gaddafi, we had more stable middle east. he said it. he changes his line every five minutes. that's not what he said under obama. we have extraordinary success in the muslim world whether it's internally in chechnya and who could forget the number three in chechnya and who could forget the numberthree in in chechnya and who could forget the number three in isis. in chechnya and who could forget the numberthree in isis. i'm happy as an american citizen to hand the muslim world to russia and let them ta ke muslim world to russia and let them take the losses. on that happy note let's move on to the americas. we have not just donald let's move on to the americas. we have notjust donald trump in office at the moment, we have the arrival

injanuary at the moment, we have the arrival in january of at the moment, we have the arrival injanuary of both scenario bolsonaro, a strongman. these are a crowded neighbourhood ? bolsonaro, a strongman. these are a crowded neighbourhood? what will happen in 2019, i will put mr bolsonaro and mr lopez to one side and say in 2011, i did this so looking ahead to 2012 and confidently predicted basher al—assad will be gone. confidently predicted basher al-assad will be gone. the same way as hosni mubarak and gaddafi will be gone and they are still there. —— he is still therefore will now confidently predict that i don't think donald trump will be president at the end of 2019. i'm with you there. the variety of reasons for fa ct there. the variety of reasons for fact saying this. when he goes, this whole thing is that columnists and journalist who spent no time in the

countries that they actually write about, this whole thing about strongmen and autocrats, that will die with them. for a strongman, donald is actually really bad at it erdogan it is good at it, putin is good at it, we will see if bolsonaro is good at it but trust me, donald trump is not good at it. this is one of the reasons i don't think you will survive. is it the mother investigation? there are three things. we will put bolsonaro last. there are enough red lights in the economy flashing. —— robert four. he doesn't think beyond tomorrow. he doesn't think beyond tomorrow. he doesn't think beyond the next tweet and he doesn't think when he tweets. it's affecting market performance. in the month of november, this is an astonishing figure, i read just last week, not a single ounce of soybeans we re week, not a single ounce of soybeans were sold from america to china. this cannot continue. finally the

most important thing is donald trump gives no loyalty. the party will gives no loyalty. the party will give him no loyalty back. they have got from him what they want and i have two supreme court justices andy conservative majority myth they have a tax cut which makes the majority wealthier even wealthier. america really does need allies. they will turn on him. the departure ofjohn kelly,. and the head of the fed. and the mueller report, he has kept it close to his death but what we know, the way the indictments are rolled up, he has cast his net wide and he has evidence. i think the mueller report will become a sideshow. it won't be a democratic impeachment, thatis won't be a democratic impeachment, that is too slow and dangerous. i think the republican party will deal with. all the grown—ups have left the room. iwish

with. all the grown—ups have left the room. i wish i was sure that you wear white. really, really you're right. —— that you're right. but mike pence is no picnic either. he is saying about back pedal. former governor of indiana and vice president. conservative money amount about religious right, conservative, all of that. the same nominees. for 18 months. the democrats controlled the house. nancy pelosi is better at moving the process. it's not so much will trump be gone but what happens in 2020. what's left, a year and a half in which most businessmen campaigning for the presidency? half in which most businessmen campaigning forthe presidency? mike pence is a social conservative, he is not my cup of tea but the point is not my cup of tea but the point is he would not do the things that trump has done. trump is the infant in the white house playing with very dangerous toys. absolutely and as i

said, i hope you are right but having seen some anything is expected to go differently, turn over the last two years, i think we in the age of disruption and there is no predicting anything. there is one thing that in the americans won't tolerate disruption of and thatis won't tolerate disruption of and that is these stock market. they are very sophisticated investors, they are very aware very sophisticated investors, they are very aware of very sophisticated investors, they are very aware of how much their pension funds are linked to the stock market. we are about ordinary americans. the little people. not in politics or in the media. the point is, when bill clinton was going to his ordeal and the economy was booming at the time. everybody said no, he will stay in office because people aren't concerned about paula jones, they were concerned about the dowjones. now people are concerned about the opposite. why people aren't concerned about the collapse of the stock market, for example.

1000 points. i believe trump will face a huge problem, edie lee, maybe next week, because the house of representatives will be dominated by the republicans. by the democrats. so the republicans are extremely worried that the same thing could happen actually in any coming election. i believe mueller will actually issue his statement. you've mentioned the democrats, barry, this should be, come the new year, the time when we see the democratic white night if there is such a thing, they are on the horizon. is there one? this is a problem with there one? this is a problem with the press and particularly with the washington press. 2019 promises to be very interesting and i think the idea that most of the articles in

the last month coming from washington are about 2020 speculation, its click bait. they do that because they know it's gossip. notjust click bait, it's because that's when change will come.” honestly think if democrats have 15-20 honestly think if democrats have 15—20 people to sort through, they have no need to be looking for this. what's in front of them is the problem of donald trump. not 2020 but this coming year. at a certain point... let me just finish. at a certain point in time, this will not bea certain point in time, this will not be a party issue. we keep waiting for the republicans to step up and put country above party. i do think it will happen sooner or later. who will be the white night? sp2 there are men, women were people of colour, latinos, a wide—ranging

whatever happens in the endgame of trump, you will begin to is in national leader emerged for the democrats and the republicans. i'm not so worried about mike pence. this is a big thing but honestly... if not by impeachment, how do you think rumple go? when the subpoena hits his family's business. fix it it will go voluntarily. i want one place where we haven't played much attention and we should think about in the coming year. italy. the financial crisis? they've ready made their deal with brussels, you didn't read the headline last week. i think china and central asia, you can't keepa china and central asia, you can't keep a million people in the education camps without it having a knock—on effect. education camps without it having a knock-on effect. china would be minus. saudi arabia is very important country when 100 senators

voted that mohammad bin salman is responsible forjamal khashoggi. thank you all very much. that's dateline london for this week, and this year, and since the new year is a case of out with the old, in with the new, we'll be back at the same time next weekend with a fresh panel, though you'll have to wait a couple of weeks for a fresh presenter! happy new year. hello, there. we've got some rather lively winds with us through the afternoon but the rain associated with the same weather front is starting to ease away and, actually, for the rest of 2018, for most of us, it looks dry and mild. most of the rain and any stronger winds will be in the north. this is the area of low pressure that's given us today's rain and you can see the windy weather,

those tightly—packed isobars really njust for parts of north—east england and the midlands, that's where the winds will be strongest for the next few hours. but they will blow some holes in the cloud. we've got the remnants of a weather front lingering in the south. so it's a brightening picture across scotland after the morning's wind and rain. we've got some sunshine to come, particularly shelter from that north—westerly wind but the winds are still quite gusty as you can see around about early afternoon. similarly so across parts of yorkshire, northern england, down into the midlands and east anglia. tempering the feel of the day a bit but with all that cloud of the south and the wind off the atlantic, it is really very mild for the time of year. however, it will turn quite chilly in eastern areas as we go through the last part of the afternoon and by that stage, we are also seeing the whites of the eyes of the next weather front coming in. so eights and nines tempered a little, as i say, by the strength of the wind which is going to ease quite quickly through this evening and under the starry skies, further east, we will see a touch

of ground frost which could hang around east anglia where we could have some mist and fog but for most of us by morning, the onset of more cloud, the next weatherfront, the patchy rain will lift those temperatures, as you can see, towards morning. for most, it's very mild except again across east anglia where we have some mist and fog across low levels. for most of us, the fog's over the hills, the rain's clearing away and again the westerly breeze, although not as strong as today, will blow that weather systems out of the way but bring with it still a lot of cloud so even though it dries up, it won't necessarily dry up that much. the best of the sunshine will be eastern parts. the east of the hills, that is. it's still mild, though, 10—12dc. very similar story monday, we pick up more wind again. back to gales in the north on monday and potentially some rain in the north and west but otherwise, for most of us, it's a fine and dry end to 2018 and that should linger through the evening for the celebrations as we take on the new year. in fact, overnight, there could just be a little bit of patchy mist and fog once again but going into 2019, the area of high pressure with us shifts further west which allows a change in wind direction, a much colder arctic air,

a northerly wind comes our way. bye— bye. this is bbc news. i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12: the immigration minister is to visit dover later amid mounting concern about the number of migrants crossing the channel in small boats. more than £100 million is to be spent chartering extra ferries to bring in vital supplies in the event of a no deal brexit. named in the new year honours list — the british divers who rescued a boys' football team from a cave in thailand. also on the list, alistair cook, twiggy is made a dame, and michael palin is knighted. i'm very surprised because i've done a lot of things in my life, none of which i felt would be worthy of such recognition, but maybe the cumulative effect is one of some kind of achievement. also coming up this hour: an army officer has become the first british person to complete a solo trek across antarctica.