this is business live from bbc news with vishala sri—pathma and maryam moshiri. the holiday season may be over, but they're still not back to work on capitol hill as the us shutdown drags on. live from london, that's our top story on friday the 4th of january. as the budget stalemate drags on, on capitol hill, what are the risks to consumer spending, confidence and economic growth? we'll be taking a look. also in the programme... renewed hopes of a resolution to the us—china trade war has lifted some asian markets, on news a us delegation will visit china next week. after apple's shock sales warning and amid signs of slowing growth in asia, what's the global economic outlook for 2019? the ftse 100 recovered a little, the ftse100 recovered a little, the european markets open in a bit. we'll do some crystal ball

gazing with our business correspondent andrew walker. and we're asking you, do you worry about the amount of time your children spend on screens? a new uk study says you don't have to be. get in touch. we're on twitter using the hashtag #bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. lots to get through today. we begin in washington where the stalemate over government funding continues. as we've been reporting, the house of representatives has passed a budget bill without the $5 billion of funding for president trump's border wall with mexico. that means it stands little chance of getting through the republican—controlled senate. the standoff has led to a shutdown of parts of the us government, now entering its 14th day.

but how much damage is being done? for around 800,000 federal employees, there's an immediate financial impact. around half — considered "essential" — are working without pay. the rest have been ordered to stay at home unpaid. as for the wider economy, the impact is small at this stage. about a tenth of a percentage point off economic output for each week it drags on — that's according to some reports. but it can quickly add up. as a guide, the 16—day partial shutdown in october 2013 took around 0.6% off economic growth for that quarter at an estimated cost to the us economy of some $24 billion. markets also rely on the timely release of economic figures and these are already being disrupted. also, data on the housing market had to be postponed on thursday and key trade figures due out early next week could also be hit. drjacob parakilas is deputy head of the us

and the americas programme at chatham house. thank you forjoining us. we will unpack the political problems in a moment but looking through what we we re moment but looking through what we were talking about, in terms of the economy, it might not seem like a lot for one day, a week, 1a days but cumulatively, this could have an impact ata cumulatively, this could have an impact at a time when it is not needed. absolutely. among the other indicators of economic slowdown around the world, the fact that the us government is shut and federal workers are not getting paid is the cumulative risk. it is unevenly distributed. you have federal workers and certain municipalities, not least washington, dc, disproportionately affected by the shutdown. but on a day—to—day basis, it is not necessarily a huge risk but the big question is how long it drags on for. and how long will it drags on for. and how long will it drag on for and how long will this

political paralysis continue for? what kind of an impact will it have politically and economically? that is the difficult question because what we have seen is a shutdown that bridges the gap between the old congress which is entirely republican—controlled and the new one which is likely to be much more oppositional to trumpet since the democrats have taken the house of representatives. the degree to which trump can work with this new democratic caucus which has been very open in criticising him and which he has been open in criticising, is going to be a big indicator of the degree to which the us is going to be able to actually even when the most basic functions of government over the next couple of government over the next couple of years. and that is a massive worry because basic functions of government depend on both sides coming to agreement at every angle and that seems very difficult. coming to agreement at every angle and that seems very difficultm does. the one mitigating factor is it is not really in the interest of anyone to give the government closed for long periods. i don't think there is necessarily much point in saying it is more in republican or

democratic interest, fundamentally everybody needs the government to work and to be open for federal workers to be doing theirjobs. the question is who blinks first and who is willing to make concessions and the other side can declare victory? you have disproportionate incentives on that front because trump is very different to any other president we have seen. and given that side of his personality that we all know very well, who do you predict is going to blink first? is it a question of not even blinking but a saving face? i think the question is at what point does the republican sarah —— said it majority come to an agreement with the emigrants because mitch mcconnell could go to trump and say this is the best deal you will get. if there is some minor concession the democrats might give, some money towards non—wall border security, if trump can get that numberupa bit security, if trump can get that number up a bit i think he can declare victory and reopen the government. good to talk to you, thank you very much. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. former nissan chairman

carlos ghosn is set to appear in a tokyo court next tuesday, after he requested an open hearing to hear the reason for his detention — that's according to japanese broadcaster nhk. it would be ghosn‘s first public appearance since he was arrested on november 19th on allegations of financial misconduct, which he denies. three former credit suisse bankers have been arrested over their alleged role in a $2 billion fraud scheme connected to firms in mozambique. that's according to us authorities. the men have been released on bail in london while the us seeks their extradition. the scheme allegedly involved loans to state—owned companies in mozambique. apple has been ordered to remove some iphone models from its stores in germany over a patent dispute with chip giant qualcomm. a court ruling in munich on 20th decemberfound apple had infringed patents on power—saving technology. the german case is qualcomm's third attempt at blocking the sale of iphones. the california—based chip maker has made patent infringement claims against apple in the us and china already. in the last few hours there's been

some positive news for investors with some asian markets bouncing back. that's on confirmation from beijing that talks will resume with the us next week aimed at ending their punishing trade war. let's get more from mariko oi in singapore. pretty positive encouragement? yes, but it feels like here we go again. the new year but market volatility continues based on speculations about that a trade war between the us and china. we knew that these talks would take place sometime next week but we did not know exactly when. that confirmation was enough to sent shares in china and hong kong higher and also beijing saying that they are willing to announce more measures to soften the blow on the trade war. that helped the rally

as well. and i guess a bit of bargain hunting because they were at their lowest level in four years yesterday after the warning from apple. the nikkei is still reacting to that warning because they were closed for a new year holiday and they ended the day at lower but at least chinese shares are seeing a bit of optimism. who knows? we will see what happens next week. some optimism but we will see what happens with the european and us markets. thank you. the nick eight was hit by those apple shares —— the nick a was hit by those apple shares —— the nicka —— was hit by those apple shares —— the nick a —— nikkei was hit by those apple shares —— the nicka —— nikkei index. was hit by those apple shares —— the nick a —— nikkei index. that's down the figure was from yesterday, ending quite low. michelle fleury has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. wall street investors may get a pleasant surprise this friday. the us labor department will release the final employment report of 2018, offering a snapshot of the us economy at a time of volatility on the stock market. economists at goldman sachs predict 195,000 jobs

were created in december. that's higher than the 180,000 jobs that many others are forecasting and it compares to 155,000 workers hired in november. the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. while hiring remains strong, weak manufacturing data has rattled the markets. fearing a slowdown, investors expect the federal reserve, america's central bank, to take a break from hiking rates. so, they will be paying close attention to what fed chairman jerome powell has to say when he sits down with former fed chairs janet yellen and ben bernanke at an economic conference in atlanta. that will be a bundle of laughs! joining us is richard hunter, head of markets at interactive investor. ona on a serious note, a lot of talk about these markets shining a light on china a demand from china, the

issues we have had with the slight slowing down in economic growth there. apple has shed a light on that. it has. we often overlook when we're talking about china, even in terms of the downgrades, they are expecting 6% growth in terms of gdp which most countries would be rather the end of, but what is becoming evident, as was widely anticipated at the start, that the us — china trade spat is starting to have an impact on both economies. needless to say, both stock markets, after all be her hours we had last year in terms of trump and the booming american economy, the s&p 500 finished down nearly 6% for the year. all three of their major indices were in negative territory. although we have had some potentially good news overnight on the talks reopening, the fragility of market sentiment, they are going

tojump on any of market sentiment, they are going to jump on any companies whose outlook is less than robust as we saw with apple. you can definitely sense that. what we saw yesterday was interesting because it will not just apple who took a hit but at the supplies, chip makers, the broader companies that have a similar exposure to china. the likes of burberry taking a bit of a knock. absolutely, in terms of the ftse 100, you will find that the first sector to be hit would be the mining stocks, there are quite a few in the ftse100 and that is basically a china demand story. apple is an interesting one, there is certainly that chinese angle and also of course, and this has been a concern for some months now, the smartphone market reaching saturation point. are people upgrading as much as they we re are people upgrading as much as they were and are people willing to pay $1000 for a phone anyway? and you cana $1000 for a phone anyway? and you

can a cheaper model, a cheaper deal if you are looking for it. we are a lwa ys if you are looking for it. we are always chopping around on the bbc! yesterday we saw gold rising to a six—month high, the yen rose against the dollar, there is a lot of appetite for safe havens and not much appetite for risk. basically, what you will find with equity, shares, is that they are higher up the risk scale. you tend to get compensated for that in terms of high dividend yields, for example, for those companies who can continue to pay them. if investors are risk averse given the global uncertainties at the moment, they would naturally drift towards what is seen as being gilt—edged security as we call them here, or government bonds, tea bonds in the states. and gold is the ultimate store of value, seen as the safest place to be. that is just seen as the safest place to be. that isjust an seen as the safest place to be. that is just an indication of how investors are feeling at the moment

in terms of their risk. richard, we will see you in a few moments to talk about smartphone use. still to come... apple's shock warning about slowing sales in asia, global market turmoil, the us—china trade war, brexit. how bad could it get in 2019? we'll take stock and look ahead with our economics correspondent andrew walker. you're with business live from bbc news. in the first three days of 2019, top uk bosses will have earned more than the typical worker will earn all year. that's according to research from the lobby group the high pay centre, which claims a ftse100 chief executive earns an average of £1,020 an hour. by what it calls ‘fat cat friday', bosses will have earned more than the typical annual uk salary ofjust below £30,000. let's get more from luke hildyard,

director of the high pay centre. thank you forjoining us. why should bosses not own a lot? they make a lot of money for their companies and shareholders and they should benefit from that, shouldn't they? this is clearly not market forces at work. the executive pay setting process is riven with conflict of interest, pay is set by committees of other executives who benefit from a culture of high pay themselves and are instinctively synthetic to the idea that their fellow executives are uniquely brilliant and that they deserve to be awarded millions. the pay agreement is then rubber—stamped by wealthy investors who again are co mforta ble by wealthy investors who again are comfortable with the seven or eight figure pay packages and themselves again benefit from being the winners in pay equality. we think it is not a good example of a functional

market and there needs to be reforms to improve corporate governance of pat’- to improve corporate governance of pay. is it more of a concern as a multiple of how much the executives have in terms of, relative rather, to employees? it is quite a big way up to employees? it is quite a big way up from £30,000 up to hundreds of thousands. is that more of a concern, if workers were paid more would it be less of a concern? absolutely, i don't think everybody is saying that everybody should be paid the same but most people are a little bit uncomfortable with such vast differentials and i don't think they reflect particularly well on british businesses. i think it is a little bit vulgar to be taking such huge amounts of money out of your company while paying a relative pittance to your workers. over 60% of the ftse100 companies do not pay the living wage. i think there could bea the living wage. i think there could be a slightly better balance between those at the top and those in the middle and those at the bottom. thank you forjoining us. you're watching business live.

our top story, there are signs of the us partial government shutdown, now entering its 14th day, beginning to take its toll on the us economy. 800,000 federal employees are affected, around half working without pay. the rest have been ordered to stay at home unpaid. let's talk about the global economy and what 2019 could hold for us. andrew walker, he has been keeping an eye on all these stories for us throughout 2018. it was one of those yea rs, throughout 2018. it was one of those years, wasn't it? it looks like 2019 will start off the same way. we are talking about the whole apple scenario, global slowdown, talking about the whole apple scenario, globalslowdown, even talking some quarters of the r word,

recession. there is, in the context of the united states. not many people saying it will happen this year but there are some voices saying it is perhaps in the pipeline for 2020. one of those voices is muriel ruby the who was one of the people who came out with repetition enhance from the financial crisis because he saw much coming in advance and his view that we have what he describes as a poorly timed stimulus by way of tax cut which will run out, contributing to an overheating us economy. the fed putting up interest rates to keep inflation in check. all those things, along with the disruption from the trade conflict, he sees all those things come together to produce a recession, a bit of a perfect storm sometime in 2020. i would emphasise that is by no means a majority view at this stage but it is striking to hear more people getting to think in these terms. you mentioned interest rates. a lot of

economists had been talking about how this is a period of quantitative tightening, moving away from quantitative easing, but with the tensions with china, do you think that might throw a spanner in the works? it might well make central banks a little more cautious about their plans to tighten policy for sure. as things stand, the federal reserve has suggested more interest rate rises coming in the course of this year. as always, they are very much determined, there is no precommitment to do that. if they do see the us economy, in the case of the fed, missing a step, they might put those plans on hold. the european central bank, signs of the euro zone economy slowing a bit as well. they have stopped their asset prcic programme, increasing their

quantitative easing dost asset purchase programme. it might make them think more carefully before they bring interest rates back to more moral levels. and talking about the us and china, talks will resume. we have been here before, can you unpack what we will be expecting from this? we have talks scheduled for next week, they are not at a particularly senior level and certainly not presidential level. it is the deputy of the trade representative. that said, if they can make some progress on some of the technical issues which could then be referred back to a higher political level, there might be room for progress. is the appetite for progress? i think if there is any real sign of the us economy slowing significantly, will be some appetite in washington and very likely there already is in china because one of the things were —— that apple said

was that they did believe that the trade conflict was making a discernible impact on sales in china. perhaps some appetite but at the same time, i think the united states will be keen to extract the maximum possible price. here in europe, we were talking a lot about italy last year. seems to have resolved its budget problems with the european commission but it has not really made its troubles go away. that's right, we have had news that a bank there has had administrators appointed by the european central bank, the first time it has done that, to try and deal with problems. raising the capital it needs to secure its final chill position. it must be said that carige is not a particularly large bank but it is a reminder of the fa ct bank but it is a reminder of the fact that italy does have banks that have been struggling with bad loans loa ns have been struggling with bad loans loans not being properly repaid and they also have quite a lot of italian government debt that they own. that is looking ok at the

moment because of the agreement they made with the european commission about the budget but there is certainly the potential for that kind of doom loop between struggling banks and struggling government finances to re—emerge. it was something that was driving the euro zone financial crisis five or six yea rs zone financial crisis five or six years ago. we have been asking all our favourite people for their predictions for 2019. is it going to bea predictions for 2019. is it going to be a crazy year again? it will be, and in terms of my best guess in terms of the overall economic performance as we will see, i think something of a slowdown but by no means a catastrophe. the political situation here in the uk, crazy last year and as we get closer to the end of march deadline for brexit actually taking place, i think the politics are going to get a great deal crazier, if you thought that was possible. we will replay that and have taped it! thank you very much, mystic andrew walker! in a moment we'll take a look

through the business pages but first let's just return to the us government shutdown. let's just hear a little of what president trump has you can call it a barrier, you can call it whatever you want, but essentially we need protection in our country. we're going to make it good. the people of our country want it. i have never had so much support as i have in the last week over at my stance for border security, for border control, and for, frankly, the wall or the barrier. richard hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, is joining us again to discuss. we will talk a little about the interesting paper stories. smartphones and screen time. we are holding an iphone, other smartphones exist, but we have a report from uk doctors showing that they don't really have an answer in terms of

smartphone use. they are saying they cannot tell parents whether or not to limit the amount of screen time for kids because there was not enough evidence. we have asked people to tell us whether they think that the use of screen time for kids should be limited by what you think? i think they should. it seems to come i think they should. it seems to co m e partly i think they should. it seems to come partly out of this reporter put it rather depends on what the screen time is. if it were googling something educational in their spare time, they don't have a problem with that. it is the overuse of the screen time in terms of social media which there are some concerns with. not because of anything directly such as eye strain but more on a psychological level with the possibility of overuse of social media, according to the report, potentially leading to depression in younger people. when we spoke with our team earlier, a lot of people said their children have homework on the tablet, they have apps, and it isa the tablet, they have apps, and it is a big part of the learning process these days. i think there has to be an element of common

sense. i guess all three of us probably spent pretty much all day ona probably spent pretty much all day on a screen of one time or another so it is a question of being able to put the device down and walk away from it and do human things. a lot of tweets on this, lorraine says that her daughters would be on their phones 24/7 if she did not force them to stop and read something, do a drawing, practice piano. tasha says the grumpiness, lethargy and inability to think after too much screen time is scientific evidence enough. there is a lot of anecdotal evidence among parents that kids are different after they have been on screens a long time. ifind different after they have been on screens a long time. i find this study a bit confusing to be honest. there has to be an element of pa rental there has to be an element of parental control anyway. going back to the social media thing, you could make the argument that that is not proper human interaction and that is potentially what kids are missing out on. very briefly, fat cat pay,

do bosses get paid too much?” haven't got a particular issue with levels of pay, if i did, you would be moving on to footballers and pop stars. i have more of an issue in terms of some ftse100 and general ceo for mac with the short term view they have to take is dictated by the market. maybe if a boss gets paid loads, it one day we will get paid loads! not after you have said that! richard, a pleasure to have you on as always. that's it from business live today. we hope you have enjoyed the first week of 2019. have a happy friday and a happy weekend. goodbye. hello.

good morning. some of us had a frosty start of this morning critically around wales, the midlands, eastern and southern areas with temperatures down to —3 or minus four celsius. we will have some brighter skies there but for most it will be fairly cloudy. that cloud is stuck beneath this area of high pressure which continues to dominate our weather through the course of the day. the cloud you do have is very thin cloud so it might well break up, particularly in wales, the midlands, eastern and southern parts but there might be some brighter skies in the east of the pennant and the north—east of scotland. it will feel quite cold, temperatures between three and seven celsius but less cold in northern ireland and the north—west of scotland with temperatures of 7—9dc. tonight, varying amounts of cloud and where it breaks up enough to give lengthy clear spells, temperatures will fall

below freezing, down to —4. when the cloud stays around, temperatures will stay just above freezing. into the weekend, mostly dry, the high pressure still dominating. there will be some sunny spells. and those spelt on saturday most likely in eastern areas of the uk —— those spells. further west, a figure cloud in northern ireland and north—west scotla nd in northern ireland and north—west scotland with perhaps a few spots of rain but most of us have a dry day on saturday with temperatures in england and wales between four and 6 degrees, less cold in the far north and west. on sunday, this week whether front moves in across that area of high pressure. as it does, it weakens out. not much in the way of rain from that cold front but it will still bring some cloudy skies, particularly for england and wales. for scotland and northern ireland,

hopeful you will have more sunshine on sunday and temperatures for many up on sunday and temperatures for many upa on sunday and temperatures for many up a little bit, seven or 10 degrees in southern areas. the weekend is looking mixed, starting on a cool note, gets a bit less cold and through the rest of neck week, between eight and 10 celsius, some rain on monday but for much of the week, with high pressure building in again, it will be mostly dry and fairly cloudy again. goodbye. you're watching bbc news at 9. the headlines... parents are told to worry less about their children spending time looking at screens, as experts say there is little evidence it is harmful to their health. there are harms from screens but actually screens bring us great opportunities and we have to balance those. the first x—ray scanner is intalled in a prison in england, as police say there's evidence members of criminal gangs get prison jobs to smuggle in drugs. uk house prices grew at the slowest annual rate last

month since february 2013, according to nationwide building society. university heads warn that a no—deal brexit is "one of the biggest threats" the institutions have ever faced. and coming up in our sports bulletin... manchester city reignite the premier league title race, as they beat liverpool 2—1 and reduce their lead at the top of the table.