white house officials including vice president mike pence make no progress in a meeting with democrats, as the government shutdown goes into its third week. hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me arejoe twyman, who is the director of the polling organisation deltapoll, and the author and journalist yasmin alibhai—brown. many of tomorrow's front pages are already in. let's start with the observer, which reports that the threat of a tory rebellion could mean a delay in the rollout of the government's flagship welfare reform, universal credit, as work and pensions secretary amber rudd seeks approval for a pilot scheme to be rolled out instead. brexit leads the independent. the paper says theresa may's hopes of securing legally binding changes needed to win support of her deal are fading, as diplomats in brussels say it is unlikely the eu will hold a summit to sign off any changes.

the mail on sunday leads on the story of an ex—wife forced to pay out £250,000 to her former husband after she apparently tricked him into thinking he was the biological father of their three children. the cost of obesity is the lead for the sunday times, with a 575% increase in operations for knee and hip replacements costing the nhs an estimated £200 million a year. the sunday telegraph warns that russia's foreign intelligence agency is trying to establish a new network of spies in britain after their previous unit was broken up following the salisbury novichok attack. and many of the papers, including the sunday express, carry a picture of 51—year—old lee pomeroy, who was stabbed on a train between guildford and london yesterday. so lots of different stories, but

several of the papers leading with pictures of lee pomeroy, this father who was stabbed to death in front of his son on a train. it is a tragic story, it was a crowded train in broad daylight, the day before his his -- broad daylight, the day before his his —— birthday, and the family have released this picture, on the front pages of a number of the papers. and his 14—year—old son witnessed it, imagine the effect on him for the rest of his life. and one wonders, if there were so many people on that train, you know, it must be terrifying. i am train, you know, it must be terrifying. iam not train, you know, it must be terrifying. i am not blaming anyone,

and it was a suburban crowd of people, if only somebody or a few people, if only somebody or a few people had managed to do something. but, you know, incredibly sad start to the year. absolutely, a sad start to the year. absolutely, a sad start to the year. absolutely, a sad start to the year, and the year which of course is going to be a crucial one for brexit, mps back at westminster on monday, and lots of brexit stories, not surprisingly, in all the papers. the daily mail seems to have its own interview with theresa may, issuing a warning to rebel mps to back her brexit deal, or saying that voters will lose their jobs trying to persuade her opponents that they are risking democracy. is this going to work? so this is project fear, it is the remainers who were affected by project fear, and theresa may is right, none of us knows what the effect will be, but

no deal is the worst option. i think anybody sensible would say that and believe it, but i think she is on a kind of charm offensive as well as a kind of charm offensive as well as a kind of charm offensive as well as a kind of really quite deliberate project to instil this feeling in people that you will have to stockpile your food, medicine might not appear, and it is not going to work, frankly. it is not going to work. she needs to win support from hermps, work. she needs to win support from her mps, cabinet work. she needs to win support from hermps, cabinetand work. she needs to win support from her mps, cabinet and the british people, and when it comes to the commons vote, whatever that turns out to be, she seems to be well, well short of the numbers that she needs to win. and so the question is, well articles like this, not just today but over the next few daysin just today but over the next few days in the next few weeks, will they have any kind of tangible effect or will she find herself in three orfour effect or will she find herself in

three or four weeks' time, effect or will she find herself in three orfour weeks' time, in effect or will she find herself in three or four weeks' time, in the same position she is now? yes, this hope that a couple of weeks off and a bit of turkey mulled wine might try and win over some of her opponents doesn't seem to have had much of an opinion —— turkey and mulled wine. and this language, to issue a patriotic rallying cry, what issue a patriotic rallying cry, what is she saying? remainers are not patriotic? 0r is she saying? remainers are not patriotic? or even the no deal people, most of whom i loathe, i don't think you can claim patriotism for one side of the debate. what she is trying to do is frame everything in terms of it is my way or it is chaos, whatever you choose. whether you choose to run a second referendum, that would be bad, whether you choose no deal, that would be terrible, it is my way or it isa would be terrible, it is my way or it is a bad way. but that is where her problem lies. she now thinks she is the state, she is written, and

she does remind me ofjulius caesar, i have said this before —— she is britain. the ides of march are coming, and when she so identifies with her cause, and i think some of the deal is quite good, as it happens. which is blasphemous, i know. but it is the way she positions herself which makes it impossible for people to be allies of hers, i feel. an interesting that the sunday times has a different brexit story, saying that some senior mps, including some former conservative ministers, are planning what they call a shutdown to prevent ano what they call a shutdown to prevent a no deal. yes, they have looked over the atlantic and saw what a massive success over the atlantic and saw what a massive success it was for donald trump and thought i will have some of that. a group of senior mps have come together and they are going to use various parliamentary procedures to do with the finance bill that is coming up in the commons, and they are going to use that to bring about are going to use that to bring about a government shutdown to ensure, they believe, that we will not go

through a ideal brexit. they are saying that they would prevent... they have put down votes in parliament to prevent the government spending money on no deal preparations, which some people might think is not necessarily the most responsible thing to be doing. but all this is a means to an end, what they want is to prevent no deal, regardless of what individuals may want beyond that, what they want to avoid is no deal brexit, and so they are doing what they can to achieve that. and there are some senior tories who are plotting with labour and the senior tories who are plotting with labourand the lib senior tories who are plotting with labour and the lib dems on this. it is extraordinary. could one have imagined any of this two years ago? you certainly could have imagined it, but whether you necessarily would have wanted it is another question entirely. it is clear from all the analysis from the commons, that no deal is the least popular option. there certainly isn't

majority support for no deal. the question is, with all of these movements around it, will we end up wandering into that almost by default as mac that remains to be seen. she has got the support of people who have opposed her virulently, like ken clarke has supported her deal, hasn't he? yes, he has, but it is not nearly enough numbers to get her deal through, and if it is not her deal, the question is, what is it? and what she needs to do is make it clearly not no deal. although it could end up being no deal without any preparations, which perhaps could end up being even worse. the point is, nobody knows, and anybody who says they do it properly trying to sell you something. by the baked beans now. labour facing something. by the baked beans now. labourfacing their something. by the baked beans now. labour facing their own divisions over brexit, and the observer is

saying that labour is facing a mass exodus over brexit policy. this is a p pa re ntly exodus over brexit policy. this is apparently from members who want the leadership to back another referendum. including the younger, more radical members from what we are learning in the last two or three months, there has been a shift. and it says, according to this report, 5000 labour members and supporters have contacted the party before its policy meeting this week. i don't think they are listening to anyone. there is an inner circle here which seems to be blind, deaf, and determined to do what they think is right. in the leadership of the labor party. in the leadership. most mps are not in this inner circle. there are a couple of other elected mps, but really, are very tight group, who talked, who influenced corbin, —— jeremy corbyn,

group, who talked, who influenced corbin, ——jeremy corbyn, and corbin is apparently not listening, not good. this follows a survey that was conducted just before christmas which found that nearly three quarters of labour members back a second referendum. nearly nine out of ten believe we should remain a pa rt of of ten believe we should remain a part of the european union. but 47% support labour's stands on brexit, and only 29% oppose —— stance. support labour's stands on brexit, and only 29% oppose -- stance. but even that is shifting all the time, isn't it? there is not that much move on that. what that shows, to me at least, is that people support labour's position because they rightly or wrongly believe that it will lead to a second referendum and staying as part of the eu, and i think that maybe an option i don't think that maybe an option i don't think it is the most likely option but i don't think it is outside the realms of the billy that jeremy corbyn will actually fulfil the promise of listening to his members

and party democracy and at some stage, albeit reluctantly, albeit at the last minute, come round to the idea of a second referendum.” really hope you are right. if you are right, i will buy you a drink i really well. i can't wait. because of course there are a lot of his own mps who are in leave supporting constituencies. yes, and that is one of the splits, but the picture is shifting all the time. the yougov poll that i was reading just now, all this seems to be shifting, for remain, growmg, all this seems to be shifting, for remain, growing, and for brexit falling, there are some particular areas where there is genuinely, if not a shift, people are beginning to understand what it means for their locality. what the poll shows is what a number of polls showing consistently, firstly it is very close between remain and leave, as

it was at the referendum, and yes, there has been a small shift towards remain, but nothing like what you would want to guarantee victory in a second referendum, and crucially very few people have changed their minds, and when they have, it mostly cancelled each other out. but i have faced the young are going to do it for us. one brexit story briefly, because there are many others we should get around to, the telegraph telegraph suggesting theresa may could delay the brexit vote. she should, if she is responsible and wa nts to should, if she is responsible and wants to do the right thing, which she keeps banging on about, i want to do the right thing. this is too fast, really thoughtless rush into something that is going to lead to somewhere where none of us knows where. delay is not sensible. it is good politics. delay untilwhen? forever. let's move on, because there are lots of other stories. the 0bserver,

there are lots of other stories. the observer, on the front page, looking atan observer, on the front page, looking at an issue which is also been a difficult one for the government, universal credit, the threat of revolt causes rethink of catastrophic universal credit. welfare reform has been a huge issue and it is one that will only grow in importance as we have an ageing population. there is a recognition among politicians and a recognition among politicians and a recognition among the public that some reform of the welfare system needs to take place. the difficulty is that firstly, no—one can really agree on what that reform should be. and secondly, any reform is going to be hugely, hugely complicated. and this is just hugely, hugely complicated. and this isjust a demonstration hugely, hugely complicated. and this is just a demonstration of that. we had amber rudd... i don't think this was a reform for the right reasons. it was an ideological push by iain duncan smith, and the bureau of statistics, which came out a few days ago, we should be ashamed. they did a study of poverty in the eu

nations have. we have the worst poverty rates, worse than greece, worse than poland, and that was done deliberately. it was man—made poverty. i think there is reform, and it needs to look at older people, everybody needs to share in the sacrifice. this was picking on those on benefits and low pay, and that was wrong. do you think that this reform actually leads to an increase in policy? yes, i do. because the idea was it was supposed to make it easierfor people because the idea was it was supposed to make it easier for people to perhaps move into work. wasn't to make it easier, it was to make it so ha rd make it easier, it was to make it so hard that people would go into work. you don't treat people like that. and when you look at some of the cases, and actually there is an interview in one of the papers today, one of the people who was actually making the judgements, she says i got a bonus for cruelty, those were her words. that is not

how policy should. but again, that is part of the reform, that is precisely what they are talking about. the reforms did not demand the same out of middle—class people, very rich people, older people. it focused on those people who were dependent on state benefits, and thatis dependent on state benefits, and that is wrong. if you are conservative, the difficulty you haveis conservative, the difficulty you have is a lot of your supporters come from older people, and so it may be that dealing with that is an area that they are less keen to touch. well, that's unfair. let ‘s touch on one of the story also the front page of the observer. jack munro, food writer and campaigner, one of many people at this time of year giving up the drink and talking about it in a longer term interview. yes, i looked at it. it is quite a shocking piece. this is a young woman who went through a very deprived period in