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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  January 6, 2019 2:30am-3:01am GMT

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this is bbc news, the headlines: us congressional leaders and white house officials have met in a further attempt to end the budget row which has paralysed parts of the government for the last two weeks. president trump has tweeted that the democrats could stop the shutdown by approving what he called real border security. poland has ordered checks at escape room venues across the country after five teenagers were killed in a fire at one site. the polish president described the fire in the venue in the northern town of koszalin as an appalling tragedy. the victims — all fifteen—year—old girls — had been celebrating a birthday. attacks organised by criminal gangs in the brazilian city of fortaleza have continued for a fourth day despite the deployment of hundreds of members of the security forces. buses, banks, and petrol stations have been targeted. it's the first major test for brazil's new president who took office on tuesday. now on bbc news, it's time for dateline london. hello this is dateline london,
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the programme that brings together some of the uk's leading commentators with foreign correspondents filing for the folks back home. this week, divided government is back in washington why is china taking a bite out of the big apple? the latest on brexit, and from bangladesh to brazil the politicians who glory in the adjective ‘authoritarian‘. to discuss that, our authoritative panel the canadian—born me award—winning broadcasterjeffrey kaufman, eunice goes, portuguese writer and academic, the sudanese journalist nesrine malik, and the british conservative commentator alex dean. now donald trump's trade team will be in china next week as the two countries attempt to replace a truce in the trade war with a more permanent peace.
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apple the technology giant blamed a slowing of the chinese economy rather than trade hostilities for cutting its sales by between $5—10 billion in the quarter ending last week. either explanation should worry the united states but its leaders have been preoccupied by the political battle between democrats emboldened at taking power in the house of representatives and a president emboldened by the pre—christmas white house clear out. jeffrey in in the space of a year or less donald trump has lost rex tillerson, he's lost mcmaster he's lost mattis, and kelly, hiss three retired generals, how well—equipped is the administration now do you think to deal with the the standoff it finds himself in all the capitol hill? i think that if you thought that the last two years were engaging reality television in washington you ain't seen nothing yet. because donald trump's
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bluster and his whole modus operandi is i'm the guy i make the decisions, i think it's george w bush that said i'm the decider. he now faces something he's never faced before, which is as you say a divided government the democrats control the house of representatives he can no longer force through his agenda he has to negotiate he has to compromise and that is a word that is not in his lexicon. it is going to cause a lot of problems. we are seeing it now, the government shutdown is in its third week, a quarter of the us government employees, 100,000 and not being paid, some of them like the workers who check your luggage as you get into airports, translation security administration, are working without pay with the promise of back pay. how is that sustainable? he wants to build his wall, he says nobody is going back to work until the wall is built, in congress under the democrats, that house of
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representatives is no way. this is a stand—off, we have big trouble in washington right now, and how it is going to be resolved is anyone's s. alex, it is difficult isn't it, to make his political argument that you are refusing to give the government running because you are doing it for public security when one of the department is not being funded is homeland security. the difference is that there are still many of them running, employees are still operating and they'll be operating on the well— known operating and they'll be operating on the well—known precedent where normally people get back paid. this is not a usual experience for european viewers but americans will know these government shutdowns is not unique. this has happened before and people are accustomed to getting their payback. in december the us government added more than 300,000 jobs, far exceeding any expectations, so when they don't have a government they are better off. i certainly would not express myself the way president trump does
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at judging myself the way president trump does atjudging by his results the economy is performing fantastically. the government is posturing but it is posturing on both sides. democrats will give way on something and he will not keep them in shutdown for years as he is threatening, it will come to an agreement. the damage done in the meantime is politically. there is an argument that the democrats are exceeding their ringgit. he is the executive, he was elected to build this wall, originally were supposed to be paid for by the mexicans... that is not the afterthought, that is the main headline in that story, that what the democrats are objecting to is not the fact that he wants to build a wall, even though the obviously they have objections to that,, damaging to the environment, it will not be effective, at environment, it will not be effective, et cetera, but his pledge and the thing that people continue to roll out is that he is meeting his campaign pledge, and that the us taxpayer would not have to foot the bill, and that is what he is demanding. so the democrats are on very strong ground for a change, and
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they have, they have not banned —— they have, they have not banned —— they have, they have not banned —— they have in bank to write on this. another difficulty for the trump administration is that we have the optics of federal workers not receiving their salaries, they will get them later, we hope, but the government, the top officials of the us governmentjust received a massive pay increase. and that does not look good i think for most members of the government, that amounts to $10,000 added to their salaries. it does not look good when no—one else is getting their pay, the administration is getting a pay increase for shutting down government. so i think the trump administration will go back to compromise sooner administration will go back to compromise sooner rather than later. the optics are not great, and the other element as well, which is new writing, is that alex is right, government shutdowns have happened in the past that they have always been reluctant affairs, and there is a quote from donald trump, a
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soundbite that has been making the rounds, which is him saying that "i will shut this government down", and so will shut this government down", and so it looks like he was relishing the opportunity to shut the government down to show that he can do it. i think that as far as trump's base are concerned, his pledges as far as they are concerned and why they elected him, are to disrupt other people's lives, not their own. you are not wrong that people claim to be a and to shut government down. what trump is doing here is he says what people might have thought but not say out loud. lots of government and people in congress will go into thinking as long as i can stick the blame on you then bring it on. trump is saying what other people have thought in the past been open about. in the past the longer shutdown was three weeks. i reject the view that the government is better and people are better off. this is enormous hardship either way for 100,000 people. i want to go back to
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something you said about the democrats overreaching. i would challenge that, the us government, the fathers of the american constitution, the writers of the constitution, the writers of the constitution pasted on a concept of checks and balances, and one of the concepts that was added very on was this notion of executive oversight by congress. it is completely within the authority of the congress, now governed by democrats, to challenge and demand accountability from the executive branch. isn't that different from saying, as nancy pelosi has said because there will not be a wall because it is an american. they have accountability but they also have a democratic mandate to do that check and question what the president is doing. where are the republicans in this, because there are signs of some nervousness. . . the this, because there are signs of some nervousness... the republicans are now the minority party so that not have much power, they have 53
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seats in the senate, so they do... so you have this divided government. ijust think that so you have this divided government. i just think that trump's skill set is not negotiating compromise, and asi is not negotiating compromise, and as i began, ithink is not negotiating compromise, and as i began, i think this is where it becomes very difficult. you are right, republicans have already said they want to get the government reopened, they are both in states where they will be up for re—election in 2020, and they will start to feel the pressure if this rags on. the hope of the democrats is to divide the republicans and vice—versa, and that is the nature of the challenge. donald trump's approach may not be good for comprise, but compromise is what is being looked for in beijing this week as the trade negotiations meet. do you see this apple announcement asa do you see this apple announcement as a kind of warning sign about what is happening in the chinese economy, or is it purely that the message has gone down from beijing, whatever
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apple's executives might say, because they do not want to offend the chinese government, but it is not perfect to buy apple phones at the moment. i think what is going on with this apple story, there is lots of things paying into it, apple has its own challenges outside of china, getting people to upgrade their iphones, the chinese government is slowing down, there is also profit at —— propaganda in china about how apple is america and there for you should buy other products, some of it is related to the trade war, but i think it is the kind of business story that people like to shoehorn political narratives into, and i think that it is just a bad quarter that apple and i think it is something that is going to happen more often across the world. just because it is china which is having a particular challenge with its economy and it is in the middle of a trade war with the us, that it has been blown up. it is worth keeping an eye on. is it reasonable for both
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sides to be looking for a way out of this? there have been signs of that, the chinese announcing concessions to the united states. i think the difference here is that the chinese are playing a long game and they have been very strategic for many decades in the way that they manage their economic policy. they are not going to budge on the main demand of the trump administration, which is to change their economic approach where the state has such a big role in running the economy, whereas the trump administration is far more tactical summer so i think trump being more tactical and the chinese being more tactical and the chinese being more tactical and the chinese being more strategic, there is going to be china making concessions that look good for trump, but in the end, who is going to win the trade war, we do not know. i'd is not going to be an easy win for china, for neither of the two countries, because actually both countries are slowing down from —— suffering from a slowing down in industrial production. i agree, the focus to trump administration has on tactics, especially in the current
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environment where day by day the government is in shut down, which the imperative on coming back from beijing with something that looks like a win. it is in china's federer in the long—term to let him think he has had that win. i think we should expect the possibility that he comes back with something that surprises people, and if he is able to come back and say look at this success, even though a lot of people in america do not want to give it to a president, if he walks on water, they will say look at donald trump, he cannot swim. but if he comes back from china and is able to say look at this deal that i have got, there isa at this deal that i have got, there is a potential for kickstarting things both in china and the us. theresa may has had a christmas to reflect a nd theresa may has had a christmas to reflect and try and regroup her approach to brexit... we will see, eunice, donald trump may be hoping for some thing from the chinese, is
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theresa may hoping for mercy from the european union, will the christmas spirit have invaded the corridors in brussels, and made them think actually, give them a bit more? christmas was a long time ago. jean—claude juncker, and the european leaders, everyone is fed up with brexit in europe. the european union has made it very clear what kind of deal and relationship can be carved out, it is up now to the british government to come up with a solution. the reality is theresa may has drafted a plan that does not seem to get the support of a majority of mps in the house of commons. so she is in trouble, and the problem is that she doesn't seem to have a way out of this. so who knows what is going to happen. three basics, both sides in the eu said they want to have a deal which is a
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starting point, secondly in these discussions when everyone says there is no more negotiating to be done, these parties are still positioning and blustering on both sides. and everyone in this table has observed these deals, they tend to go to the la st these deals, they tend to go to the last minute, sometimes the last second. we still have a couple of months in which comprise is possible. we have the parliamentary deadline, and the dup this week... this is may have done that once already, when she stopped the planned vote, suspended it. they have given us a week in which this is supposed to happen. do you see anything that has shifted domestically that might increase the odds of her being able to get this? two things. the first thing is more immediacy. it gets closer, and if it gets closer the prospect of that in this deal or no deal at all becomes more realistic. then you will see interesting things happen. that may —— labourmps interesting things happen. that may —— labour mps would say i would
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rather this deal come out in wto terms, and it focuses the mind on both sides of the negotiating discussion, not necessarily in the uk but abroad, on whether or not you will allow the so—called backstop issue to derail the whole thing. if you are going to let it be read a whole thing, —— derailthe you are going to let it be read a whole thing, —— derail the whole thing, doesn't that disproportionately affect the eu economies with whom this negotiating site is charged. if we say the backstop will. .. site is charged. if we say the backstop will... her challenge will be to sell that to the dup. i think she probably can. alex i admire your optimism — we have 83 days before the door slams shut, unless something changes. i agreed that sometimes at the last minute these things come through. this is a constitutional multi—generational change for this country, this is not simply a trade pact and the children...
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the infants being born the babies being born at this very day will will feel the repercussions of the decisions being made in westminster in the next 83 days and in brussels and i think it's very, very i think there's a lot of reason to be very concerned very frightened that there is no sign of a deal that is both palatable to the british people, palatable to parliament and palatable to europe. i think this is extremely dangerous and well... you make year's terms like frightened and dangerous there but why? because you are going to concede the economic structure and relationship of britain and its largest trading bloc about the british deal palatable to the british people i think this is really crucial that mps will act or the only pressure on timepiece there is so a sense of exhaustion
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with the whole brake debate, especially when we crashed into several hurdles, there was the no—confidence vote, and i think that the terror or the justifying of terror over no deal brexit is now less likely because people just to stop. the attention span is to learn, they are sick of politicians, they don't with anyone actually and so are no they don't with anyone actually and so are no deal brexit might become more palatable to people who before had not sought thought so because theyjust want it over. and i think there is a growing number of mps in there is a growing number of mps in the conservative benches are actually rash in the idea of no deal brexit. conservative party support is asked, who want to know deal
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brexit said this might create some momentum but on the other hand, we have momentum coming from those mps from other parties you think there isa from other parties you think there is a window of opportunity to campaignfora is a window of opportunity to campaign for a second vote. the question is, there are too many factors which make the whole process highly unpredictable. we watch theresa may in the expectations are low with her. she comes through at chequers and then we think, yes, that's great. then it crashes and she comes up with another deal and it crashes. i think it's in everyone can interest to see something constructive come out of this but it'sjust very hard constructive come out of this but it's just very hard to see that theresa may is the person who can pull this off. a third share of the
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vote, which has seen sheikh hasina become the prime minister of bangladesh were at that time. jair bolsanaro says bangladesh were at that time. jair bolsa naro says his bangladesh were at that time. jair bolsanaro says his election means that people want hierarchy. favouring or enforcing strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom. why is that seem to have become politically more attractive? in brazil, they had a crimewave go on for so long with the apparent that neither side of mainstream politics could do something about it and in politics, if neither side can address the main concern in voters thoughts, then another force arises that can and very often, whether that be in australia where one nation grout of their concerns about migration or in our country where ukip emerged over concerns the mainstream wasn't dealing with migration and europe, if you fail to offer voters a choice
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that addresses their concerns in that addresses their concerns in that situation which could be either way, it could be more freedom or more authority. something else will emerge and we live in a time it has been a wave of parties coming up to offer choice and brazil is the most remarkable example of that, notjust because of the positions he is taken but also because of the remarkably unpleasant that come along, especially with minorities and homosexuals and women as well. many of whom will have voted him, willing to overlook to try to fix the main issue. i agree with alex that usually authoritarianism comes off the back of instability. we saw with arab spring countries, how sisi was very popular. there is a sense that things had become too unstable but
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there is also on a global level, we are seeing it happen everywhere, in the south, in india, in europe and in south america and the us. there is also a different dynamism. when you have peace time for a very long time, the stakes become quite low, i think, for people who want to vote for hierarchies. people voting for jair bolsanaro for hierarchies. people voting for jair bolsa naro and for hierarchies. people voting for jair bolsanaro and donald trump, i completely agree the re—establishment of a totem pole, where everyone knows where they stand but that is a reaction of too much stability. lack of hierarchy is actually, it is what creates consensus actually, it is what creates consensus and what flattens power structures and people forget hierarchies are very toxic. there is
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also a universal anger including in the us at the elites, this polarisation of wealth which is systemic in latin america and other developing regions but has become amplified in the united states. there is this sense of what they call in the us those left behind and brazil, venezuela, i covered that region to ten years. columbia, which is remarkably stable for now. there is remarkably stable for now. there is this nation to anger. why do you haveit is this nation to anger. why do you have it and i don't? that used to be exclusive to developing countries. in the postwar boom in the west. that stopped sometime in the or 90s. therefore, it allowed this universal animosity towards authority.|j therefore, it allowed this universal animosity towards authority. i think the question of inequality is very
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important. this is happening in countries that are highly polarised and high levels of inequality. we have very weak democratic institutions. these big politicians, personalities, to promise the world authority. there is the short—term factor which normally triggers this sense of security and stability. it very often happens after a period of economic crises and mrs happening after the period of big economic recessions, big crises following the global financial crisis said ingredients are all there to appear. i have no doubt that you are both right. there is concern about elites but there is another thing about resentment of the so—called elite
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which is about language and the way we are treated, and the way people think and that isn't about money and what i've got and you haven't, and that's what donald trump is so good at getting hold of an echoing. let's be proud of saying christmas, for example, as if there is this great lobby of people who say you can't say christmas but a more meaningful things, people like jair bolsanaro are things, people like jair bolsanaro a re allowed things, people like jair bolsanaro are allowed to get away with their views, which are rabidly homophobic, they are allowed because we have changed the way we treat the language so if you are concerned about migration now in the uk, you are a racist. if you think that women shouldn't have to compete in cycle ra ce s women shouldn't have to compete in cycle races against someone who is now a man in transitioning to be a woman, you are a homophobe and against transgender people and there are many people with mainstream views you think, well, i don't hate 95v views you think, well, i don't hate gay people and i don't hate migrants but you are telling me i am a homophobe and a racist if i hold these views, what's the difference between me and jair bolsanaro?
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that's a really interesting point because it ties into the culture war element of all of this stuff and i think what you have mentioned is the sort of language of political correctness, it's massively overblown when it's analysed were attributed to people and authoritarianism. when culture wars happen it's because there is a traditionally powerful part of society that is potentially losing its power to minorities. also the question of the language. what has happened also in the last decade at the very least has been the normalisation of a certain way of talking about minorities and in particular migrants. before, we had politicians restrained, far more restrained in the use of language and that was actually quite good because it kind of educated the masses. it had a calming effect.
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when we seek politicians using unrestrained language is to talk about migrants and refugees, it is giving a free for all. just briefly, talking about sheikh hasina. it can be about west versus east. mahathir mohamad in malaysia and lee quine knew in singapore, people looked on as successful. they were dismissed at the time by the western particular, as authoritarian. it's about the lens you look at this through. i think there is something to be said about the very euro or western centric approach to democracy is in the south but ironically, the north is coming around to the way of the south pier. you can hear it in the way the media talks about donald trump. he is getting things done. that is what
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people say that dictators in the arab world. there is no need to convince a lot of western governments on the virtues of that. thank you from all of us. harry g ra cey thank you from all of us. harry gracey will be in the chair next week but from all of us at the datline london, goodbye. it should be to cold start on sunday because there is a lot of cloud around. the damp around england and scotla nd around. the damp around england and scotland and northern ireland and south of that, an awful lot of cloud. you want the sunshine, it's mainly across the northern half of
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scotla nd mainly across the northern half of scotland where temperatures are back to seven degrees. maybe a milder day on sunday despite all that cloud around. as we head into monday, though, a high pressure starts to get squeezed it, lowering dish to the north, really packing a punch later in the day across the northern scotla nd later in the day across the northern scotland with severe gales likely. it will be a windy day for all of and some rain around, maybe to scotla nd and some rain around, maybe to scotland and northern ireland moving southwards and petering out with some sunshine following the northern ireland, northern england and southern scotland. the strength of the wind is the main story. gusts of 70 miles per hour or more across northern parts of scotland. at least it should be a milder day. temperatures widely in double figures. goodbye. welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. i'm reged ahmad. our top stories: another attempt in washington to break the deadlock over the partial government shutdown ends, with no sign of a breakthrough. mourners lay candles for the five teenage girls killed in a fire in poland, as safety checks at "escape room" venues
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across the country are ordered. an historic split from russia — ukraine's new orthodox church is granted independence after more than three centuries of rule from moscow. ice—tastic celebrations in china as carvers from around the world unveil their masterpieces.
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