hello. it's thursday. at ten o'clock. i'm victoria derbyshire. we're only five days away from that crucial commons vote when the prime minister will try to get her brexit deal approved by mps. theresa may says it's her deal or no deal. so what would a "no deal" brexit look like and what would it mean for you? i'm an entrepreneur, so no—deal brexit would mean more expense to pass on to my customers and a nightmare for my customers.” pass on to my customers and a nightmare for my customers. i work in aviation and no—deal brexit would be an opportunity and not a crisis. as an eu citizen and somebody working in the car industry, no deal would be disaster. for the uk fishing industry, brexit is a sea of opportunity and no deal would bring that on more quickly. we will hear more from the voters in the next hour of the programme and also from you wherever you are in the country. meanwhile britain's biggest car manufacturer, jaguar land rover, is to cut up to 5000 jobs in the uk, that's about one in eight of its workforce. it says it's because of falling demand in china, confusion over diesel cars and uncertainty over brexit.

and one of the protesters who's been criticised for verbally abusing the conservative mp anna soubry as she walked into parliament has told this programme exclusively he will keep harrassing her and others if they don't get the brexit they want. to compare us to thejo cox killer is out of order. people are concerned. she was scared. no, she was laughing! she was laughing. she wouldn't come out yesterday and done it all, would she? she knew we was all over there. hello. welcome to the programme. we're live until 11 this morning. and we're talking about what happens if there's a no—deal brexit. that's the term used to describe britain leaving the european union with no formal agreement on the terms of the withdrawal or new trade relations. we're discussing how it will affect you and your life. thank you for your messages on

twitter so far. @the13men says: "don't worry, your lot won't let brexit happen, relax." @kittykat99 says: "to be honest i'm more worried about making ends meet being on universal credit." and roy adams has tweeted: "no deal is the default option & i would willing accept it rather than may's fudge deal. but i'm not sure the morons in parliament could get out of a wet paper bag let alone deliver brexit." do get in touch on all the stories we're talking about — use the hashtag victoria live.

here's annita with a summary of the day's news. britain's biggest car maker jaguar land rover is planning to cut around an eighth of its uk workforce with up to 5000 jobs expected to be lost. management, marketing and administrative roles are expected to be hardest hit, but it's understood some production staff may also be affected. industry insiders are blaming a downturn in chinese sales, a slump in demand for diesel cars and uncertainty over brexit. the government says it will work to help find newjobs for the affected staff. we will work very closely with the company, with employees, to make sure we can match them with other companies that are expanding it would give their eye teeth to have the brilliant employees that jaguar land rover have employed. business secretary, greg clark. the government may back calls to protect workers' rights after brexit to help win support for theresa may's deal from labour mps in next week's crucial brexit vote. the proposals have been put forward by pro—brexit labour mpjohn mann, who says his amendment would open up the opportunity for other improvements to the prime minister's deal.

labour leaderjeremy corbyn will say later that a general election is the only way to break the brexit deadlock and overcome the country's divisions. at a speech in wakefield mr corbyn will argue that if the prime minister is unable to get her deal through parliament next week, her government will have lost all authority. labour's deputy leader tom watson told itv‘s peston programme that it's a question of when, not if labour tabled a vote of no confidence in the government. police think they've found the car used to knock 14—year—old jayden moodie off a moped in east london before he was stabbed to death. detectives say three men used a black mercedes to ram into the teenager before killing him in a targeted attack in leyton. officers have increased patrols in the area, including at local schools. retailers have reported significant falls in sales over the festive season, as the sector suffers its worst christmas in ten years. struggling department store debenhams saw a 5.7% fall in like—for—like sales over the festive period, with m&s

and sainsbury‘s also suffering. other retailers such as tesco and john lewis said their christmas had been stronger. women taking certain types of hormone replacement therapy tablets could be more at risk from serious blood clots, according to new research. the study in the british medicaljournal said that despite the overall risk being low, hrt patches and gels were the safest form of treatment. gps' leaders said women should not panic or stop taking hrt, which is used to relieve symptoms of the menopause, but should raise any concerns with their gp. the actress ashleyjudd's sexual harassment lawsuit against hollywood mogul harvey weinstein has been dismissed but the court in los angeles did say the star could proceed with another part of her civil claim, namely that mr weinstein defamed her and damaged her career. mr weinstein has denied all allegations of non—consensual sex. that is a summary of the main news

this morning. back to you, victoria. 10:06am. hello, there is a already. robert says: we can make deals after we have left. stop using the phrase crashing out. i never have! nobody knows what will happen. we need to have self belief and drive this wonderful country onwards to greater things. russell said: ithink wonderful country onwards to greater things. russell said: i think it is naive to think that those who voted leave did not consider that a no deal scenario meant being worse off, that many, like me, voted for change, and whatever that brings, with the belief and confidence that britain will long—term be betterfor it. there is far too much immediate negativity and spin on this and the man on the street is prepared to ride the bumps and god forbid go

back to seasonal veg and holidays in the uk. benedict said: i voted to leave but i didn't vote for a no—deal brexit. please will you stop the brexit spokespeople assuming that the 17.4 million who voted to leave voted for the same reasons. we didn't. catherine tweets: we would be the only country in the world with no trading relationships with any other countries overnight. it would be criminalfor any other countries overnight. it would be criminal for any government to implement this. we are focusing on what i know deal brexit would mean for you this morning. wherever you are in the uk, get in touch. we are talking to our voters part of the brexit bunch, and we have got some mps as well. what might a no—deal brexit mean for you? under a no—deal brexit, britain would leave the european union with no formal agreement on the terms of the withdrawal or new trade relations. so do you want a no deal or are you dreading it? let me know today. we're going to spend a bit of time talking about it this morning because, as you know, the uk is due to leave the european union in 78 days and we still don't know on what terms. most think mps will vote against the government's brexit deal next tuesday, which means leaving the eu without a deal at all at the end of march

becomes a real possibility. although, if mrs may does lose that vote, we now know she'll have to come back with her plan b within three days, not 21 days, so her strategy of forcing her mps to choose between her deal and no deal as the clock ticks down to march 29th — the deadline for brexit — has kind of been dismantled now. what can happen now is that parliament — all 650 mps — will be able to have a series of votes and, by a process of elimination, they'll be able to determine what option is most popular — a different kind of brexit, a second referendum and so on. but what might a no—deal brexit actually mean? have a look at this. 0ur relationship with the eu has been built over 40 years through treaties, rules and regulations. under no—deal, that would all be stripped away and we would fall back immediately on wider international law. both the eu and the uk have published plans saying how

they will manage in the short—term in areas like aviation. if eu law is enforced though, border checks will be reimposed straight away and firms will have to pay tariffs to import and export goods. road haulage firms have warned of long delays at britain's ports. the rights of eu citizens living here and uk citizens living in mainland europe would be less clear. no—one would be forced to leave but their right to health care and some other benefits could be restricted. eu rules also affect things like pet passports, driving licences and mobile phone charges. under no—deal, they may all have to be renegotiated. some, though, think no—deal will mean we don't have to pay the eu a huge divorce bill for leaving. people who like the idea also say it lets businesses know where they stand, and will make it possible to strike trade agreements with other countries outside of europe. so how likely is it to happen? well, bookmakers now put the odds

of a no—deal brexit at 3—1. a group of mps in parliament is trying hard to block that option but leaving the eu on march 29th is written into law, so, as things stand, that is what will happen with or without a deal. this morning we are going to be hearing from our brexit bunch, our guests who we have gathered from all over the uk, who we have spoken to at regular intervals as the twists and turns a brexit continue. and we have politicians here. vicky ford is a conservative mp and former mep who is voting for the government's brexit deal next tuesday, the deal mrs may has negotiated with brussels. simon clarke is a conservative mp and a senior figure in the eurosceptic group the european research group. he'd be happy with a no deal and thinks that fears

about a no—deal brexit are exaggerated. rupa huq mp is a labour mp who will vote against mrs may's deal next tuesday. we had booked the shadow brexit ministerjenny chapman but she had to pull out because of the diary clash, so rupa huq stood in at the last minute and we are grateful for that. who actually wants a no deal? introduce yourself and tell us why. i work introduce yourself and tell us why. iwork in introduce yourself and tell us why. i work in a factory manufacturing alarm systems. i have got to say this. i had a chat with the purchasing manager of the factory, and he said that at the moment there is uncertainty, that is why components are not getting through, and the politicians need to get their act together. it is then we are waiting for. we can trade on wto rules. no deal, i don't like the term no deal. wto is what it is, a

new trade deal with the rest of the world. bring it on. who agrees with that? bring it on? do introduce yourself. bertie armstrong, chief executive of the scottish fishermen isa executive of the scottish fishermen is a federation. i represent a whole trade sector here, turning over half a billion pounds a year. and speaking for the whole of uk industry, because we are as one here. it is straight and clean for the uk fishing industry, and taking back sovereignty over our waters will right the wrongs of a long time. it is one area where a north, south, east and west, all parties agree that fishing should be out of the common fisheries policy. and you would get that with mrs may's deal, she says. we would, but there would bea she says. we would, but there would be a transition period, which we would weather, a period of negotiation. with no deal there would be immediate sovereignty and the deal— making conditions would be immediate sovereignty and the deal—making conditions would be really rather more severe for the

re st of really rather more severe for the rest of europe than they are now. we need to look forward and not back. we need to recognise a volume of opportunity for uk fishing, not just by the economics, and the jobs, but because it is the right thing to do. we are an island in the middle of the best fishing grounds in the world. why would we trade that away? no deal means no transition. who else think that would be a good idea? who thinks that would decimate potentially their livelihood? introduce yourself. i am from hull, former fishing town with a vast fishing fleet. and i sympathise with what you are saying and i hope you get what you want. but personally i think i know deal with no transition period, how would you get your face onto the continent because logistically it will be impossible? before you answer that, and you can,

kevin, explain what you do for a living and why you cannot envisage a no deal scenario because it would be bad for your staff. i run an international haulage business. for the last 45 years, all we have done is import and export between the uk and europe. i know deal would have full customs formalities, which would be a disaster for my business. can you explain why in practical terms? what difference does it make if one of your 104 lorries get stopped for a bit longer than it does now? waiting, costly waiting. clients have deadlines to meet with manufacturing, whether that be automotive or aviation or foodstuffs or anything else. my major concern is clarity. everybody is saying it is clarity. everybody is saying it is 300 and odd days until christmas. you said it is 77 days until brexit. isaid you said it is 77 days until brexit. i said 78. am i wrong? i counted my calendar this morning. 0k! come the

revolution it will be 70 days. i sit on the steering panel for the department for transport with chris grayling and others and we have been talking about this for a year and we still haven't got any guarantee. talking about this for a year and we still haven't got any guaranteelj still haven't got any guarantee.” am going to introduce you to simon clark, conservative mp he will vote against vote against mrs may's deal. you believe their worries around no deal are exaggerated but you have heard it from kevin's mouth this morning so what do you say to him? the most important thing to say is that we heard from the president of the calais and boulogne ports earlier this week in a powerful interview on bbc radio four. he was setting out very clearly that in an ideal scenario, which is not inevitable, and there is still scope to get the deal through the house, but in that scenario there would indeed be no additional delays relative to those that exist at present. if there is a 70 seconds delay in a vehicle clearing customs and leaving the port of dover, there

will be 3000 vehicles within 70 seconds in a queue coming out of the port of dover. kevin, you're absolutely right. we do not want additional section at the borders, but that presupposes that the french will generate that extra fiction and we have heard now that they won't. we have belgian, dutch and german clients. the belgians and dutch are brexit ready. can you say the same? the belgians and dutch are telling as they are brexit ready and the french are saying it is your problem, so they are not brexit ready. we transit the port of dover and kelly daily, ten or 12 tracks per day, and there is no extra facilities in either port. —— dover and calais. and there is no for extra facilities. i will pause there... bertie, iwill come back extra facilities. i will pause there... bertie, i will come back to you, i absolutely promise. now i

wa nt you, i absolutely promise. now i want a more general overview. we will come back to trade. people who are worried about the no—deal brexit and people who actually want one. who is worried? yes, i come from northern ireland and we are campaigning fora northern ireland and we are campaigning for a people's vote. the thought of no—deal brexit in northern ireland is absolutely disastrous. i have been speaking to young people across northern ireland who are looking at massive amounts of uncertainty. northern ireland had 20 years of uncertainty, violence and strife on the streets. we don't wa nt and strife on the streets. we don't want that again. i haven't grown up with that and the thought that no—deal brexit could put aboard a back up and people will be facing the same violence and anger of the past, it is not something that i want. so you think there is a real possibility of a hard body being

imposed pretty much immediately if there is no deal after the 29th of march? —— hard border. there is no deal after the 29th of march? -- hard border. they are looking at recruiting thousands of extra police officers for the streets of northern ireland and i think there has got to be some kind of border put up. there is a land border between the european union and a non—european union country, and a non—european union country, and goats have got to be checked, with some kind of infrastructure which will have to be put up there. there are people living on the border where i live who don't want that back and they will use violence asa that back and they will use violence as a means of getting rid of that. nobody wants more violent and maybe one checks on the board and no deal will be disastrous for the future of northern ireland. —— nobody once checks on the border. she has said that no deal will be exciting for britain. i expect more from the younger generation. that is very negative and doom and gloom. did you hear what she just said?” negative and doom and gloom. did you hear what she just said? i did and i have been many times, but the general consensus i get there is that there is an exciting opportunity for change and it is the way forward. we are hearing one side

of it, very negative, scaremongering. you don't live there and you don't live on the border and you haven't spoken to students crossing the border going to school frightened that thus will not get across. i work at heathrow airport andi across. i work at heathrow airport and i speak to people on both sides of the board and this is what i am trying to get across. heathrow is europe's biggest port. they are ready. flights will not be grounded. it has been sold like that. we are talking about 200,000 passengers plus everyday, 78 million. are you sure about that because we saw what a couple of drones can drones aside! agreements have been put in place so that flights can take off. we might have teething problems if you don't recognise our safety standards that one important point that i need to

make, ispeak one important point that i need to make, i speak to big business people from all around the world on a daily basis and they see us as a free trading nation. the excitement is out there for us to grow as a nation, to stop the doom and gloom. there is 304 on tuesday's vote, they need to have a good look in the mirror because they are disrupting the whole process for self gain. hurry, say that again? the 304 that voted on tuesday for the amendment on tuesday, they have personal agendas going on and it is not for the nation. you have been raising your eyebrows next to harry and i am guessing that you are dreading no deal? i am an eu citizen, german, andl deal? i am an eu citizen, german, and i have lived here for the best pa rt of and i have lived here for the best part of ten years of my life. first of all, i would like to say that for the two and a half years since the referendum, we eu citizens have been left in limbo by mrs may and the whole uk government. if no deal happens, that will continue. no, she

has already... she hasn't. let me finish. i am affected and so i know. we are having to apply, not register, for settled status, which is entirely unnecessary. injune la st is entirely unnecessary. injune last year, the eu put forward the first proposal, which said that anybody that is in the eu as a brick today and anyone in the uk as a european, we will ring fence their rights, and any new immigrants will have a new immigration rule and britain rejected that. it put up a syste m britain rejected that. it put up a system called settled status. the trials that were run in december we re trials that were run in december were open to 250,000 people, and 12,500 out of 15,000 applications have been granted. 20% of applications for citizens that are here legally, people's wives, mothers, husbands, carers, allthose things, they have been rejected. 0n

the flip side of that, he felt i can talk about personally... i am a human and! talk about personally... i am a human and i am not heathrow. on heathrow, we have just human and i am not heathrow. on heathrow, we havejust had human and i am not heathrow. on heathrow, we have just had this from above: methods to avoid disruption in the event of an ideal deal brexit are unlikely to be enough. —— no—deal brexit. he does not leave his name. we are worried because the guidelines have been issued and i think they represent a constraint on traffic. the key forward, how well do you know theresa may?” traffic. the key forward, how well do you know theresa may? i know her to be an enormously resilient woman. she listens very hard. those who know her reasonably well, they say they cannot imagine her allowing a scenario whereby the uk leave the eu without a deal. what would you say? i would certainly be supporting a deal. of course, but what do you think you will do? let's talk about

the vote in front of us now at first. i will be supporting the deal because i believe, and i have played a very active role as a remainer in the last referendum, and i want about the risk to trade and security and jobs and people's lives, as we have heard, but the brexiteers promised those deals would be addressed and there would be a trade deal and germans would want to sell us deal and germans would want to sell us their cars and the wto does not cover key sectors that are important to my constituency, like services. lots of people work in services and the technology sector and areas like science and research, advanced manufacturing, the car industry, and we have heard about the jaguar land roverjobs we have heard about the jaguar land rover jobs today we have heard about the jaguar land roverjobs today going to slovakia. slovakia. so i will be supporting this deal. there are some risks and concern about the northern ireland

backstop becoming permanent.” concern about the northern ireland backstop becoming permanent. i don't see that as a big risk because it is in either side's interest. i want to focus on what no deal would look like. no dealwould mean uncertainty in the financial services, the biggest employer in my constituency. uncertainty and advanced manufacturing, the car industry. uncertainty for eu citizens, my constituency were married to eu citizens. that is why i am voting for this transition period to allow us for this transition period to allow us to get to a new relationship. simon, desperate to get in and you disagree. we had a referendum that settled theirs. let's talk about no deal. vicki is talking about the service industry. the single market in europe already doesn't cover the service industry. there is no question that in the end of the country has got to choose between being a rule taken and rule maker. the uncertainty in a scenario where the deal is approved it would mean that we will be logged in as a rule taken underthe that we will be logged in as a rule taken under the backstop unable to

shape our laws. only if we end up in the backstop. of course we don't know that but it is a very significant contingent risk. i am a parliamentarian elected to make choices and i think there is too much risk in a backstop that is unlimited in time and duration. the terminology is confusing. when the phrase is bandied about that no deal is better than a bad deal, the general public often think that means the status quo. we will have no deal and a bad deal is worth. that wto is the worst of all worlds. we have got to disentangle ourselves from 40 plus years of cooperation and legislative entanglements with oui’ and legislative entanglements with our nearest neighbours, colleagues, friends. it is like taking an egg out of a cake that is already baked. it is really difficult to do this.

it is really difficult to do this. it will not be easy. wto is crashing out with no transition period, at least the two years that the government's deal offered would mean continuity with arrangements that we have. but you are voting against it. iam have. but you are voting against it. i am voting against it because it is a bad deal and that is what is on the table. why are we having this discussion at all? because the government has failed. that referendum was in 2016 and we have 78 days to go. you are not representing a shadow front bench, that as a labour mp who does not wa nt that as a labour mp who does not want a no deal, what will you do to stop it? i am asking about you.” voted for the amendment. i think there is misunderstanding about what that meant. there have been two government defeats in two days and the government has been held in co nte m pt of the government has been held in contempt of parliament, which has never happened before. these are unprecedented weird times. there is no parliamentary deal for a unprecedented weird times. there is no parliamentary dealfor a no—deal brexit, so we voted for an amendment that makes budget decisions contingent on no deal. if no deal comes, we will not be asking for money for that. i am asking what you

will do to stop no deal. parliament needs to assert itself. we have a minority government and they didn't win an election. two weeks of time wasting, fanning around, having a general that they had for time wasting. this is hobson's choice, her way or the highway. my preference is for people's vote. people decided this. give it back to them. do you want this deal or do you want to remain? we know that works. the best deal that we have is the best deal on offer, the one that we have. it works. we are going to move on to talk more specifically about trade and the economy, if we may. the implications of a no—deal brexit could be huge for our economy in the future. have a look at this. a no—deal brexit could have big implications for trade.

for some, it's like driving the economy off a cliff. for others, it's a glorious opportunity. it's impossible to know for sure, but here are some arguments either way. if we leave with no deal, the eu says there can be no transition period. that means we will leave the single market straight away, so any goods that cross the uk border may face extra checks and tariffs. haulage firms are worried about long queues at the ports. there are concerns over food. the government says trucks will continue rolling into the uk, but could ourfood exports be delayed going in the other direction? 0n medicine, we import and export millions of packs of drugs each month. the government has asked firms to stockpile a six—week supply just in case. the world of finance is worried about losing access to european markets. manufacturers, now used to bringing in parts quickly, might have to adjust quickly, holding more on sites and investing in new storage facilities. 0n the other side, some think leaving on wto

terms would free us up, putting us in a position to negotiate a better long—term trade deal with the eu. it may also make it more simple to strike our own agreements with other fast—growing countries like china or brazil. the bigger question is how all this could affect the economy over time. an analysis by the government found a no—deal brexit could leave it 9% smaller than it would have been by 2034. most economists think that analysis is fair, but some brexiteers have described those figures as flawed. leaving with no deal would mean we leave and use world trade 0rganisation terms, which means tariffs added to goods coming in and going out. on average, those tariffs are pretty low. 2.6% added to the cost of imports and exports. rising to on average 10% for cars and car

parts. for dairy products, they rise to on average over 35%. are you aware of what the tariffs would be an do you think people would be an do you think people would be an do you think people would be able to afford an extra 35% on dairy products, for example? shellfish would be the item where it most applied, it is about 8%, and currency variations swallow that up one way or the other so that would be perfectly cobol with. there is a lady next to you who is really...” understand that. seafood is a global market, we have an opportunity to double the amount of seafood, our own natural capital that we take from our own waters, under the sovereignty granted by brexit. when that happens, there is the possibility of a real expansion. it is the sea of opportunity, there will be challenges but the critical

pa rt will be challenges but the critical part is the opportunity. and we have a lot of argument which can't see beyond the challenges and doesn't address the challenges, it says, we're all going to die, we should go back to where we started. nonsense. for example, several of you run businesses, what do you think about these potential tariffs are being imposed ina these potential tariffs are being imposed in a no deal scenario, what would it mean for your business, karen? the costs incurred will be passed on to the customer and as an entrepreneur and with the product that i design, at the moment i am at a standstill and i have been at a standstill for nearly two years, i can't launch a product without knowing what my cost to the customer is going to be. until i know that. coming at it from the uk tech industry, we are global from day one, it is how technology works. often the uk tech companies will expand into europe very quickly, easy to do it from a uk—based. cash

is king in our world, particularly for the smaller tech companies, so there's going to be a lot more red tape, are they going to have to set up tape, are they going to have to set s tape, are they going to have to set up h05 in certain parts of europe? i know certain tech start—ups are relocating to berlin and paris because it is easier to go there and do some work with the uk. redtape costs are really unanticipated. and finally, about one fifth of the uk tech industry is from the eu. so, with the costs associated with the registration, you know, the tech companies will probably bear that cost, so it is a lot more, in terms of cost. so i think the redtape is really an issue and it is putting a lot of companies on the line. john... ? lot of companies on the line. john...? our industry is fruit and vegetables, the tariffs probably would not affect our industry hugely. in fact the dairy tariff might improve the margins of dairy

farmers which would be welcome. i would like to ask simon, if we have ano would like to ask simon, if we have a no deal brexit and we have no transitional period, my workforce are 99% eu citizens, picking fruit and vegetables fresh and they will not have a right to work in the uk so who is going to pick our fruit and vegetables? can i pick that up? there is provision, mike olic has got a lot of soft fruit picking in her constituency and she has been leading the drive for seasonal agricultural workers and visa scheme and we would absolutely look to do that. no deal does not mean no immigration, let's be clear. immigration can, properly and democratically and accountable controlled, be a good thing in our society. we would want to make sure that industries like yours, which are so that industries like yours, which are so exposed to the need for seasonal workers, can do that. this is an example of how a democratic and free free to make its own choices can do this but do it in a way which means that people in britain who have been so concerned about immigration and the way in

which... but you would be able to control immigration with mrs may's deal? mrs may's deal is not all wrong but there are elements of it... it is the backstop provisions which are deeply flawed. but you have already put a scheme in place for 2500 people for seasonal agricultural workers to pick fruit and vegetables in an industry which needs tens of thousands of people. we can scale it. we have 11 monday is left until a potential no deal and that means we will come out without a transitional period and i will have no workers and you will see a shortage of fruit and vegeta bles see a shortage of fruit and vegetables on supermarket shelves. we can scale it. what do you mean we can scale it is a nap any scheme government creates can be rolled out at whatever level required. from 29th march onwards? there is no question in my mind that the home office will be capable of devising a scheme which is capable of delivering... are you joking the, you said that with a straight face! there is no question whatsoever, as

a sovereign country... of course eventually, but not like that?! we are the fifth most powerful country on the planet in terms of... oh, gosh! no, this is classic project fear! the idea that we cannot create a visa scheme for food workers... of course the home office can create a visa scheme for fruit and vegetable pickers, of course, overtime. not over a great length of time. how long? the truth is, you would have to consult the home office civil servants about this. we are simply not ina servants about this. we are simply not in a situation where we are going to end up talking down our ability to do things as a country. this is absolutely dramatic of the way in which so much of this campaign is talked about. there's no point all talking at the same time, who hasn't spoken yet? samuel, i am the chairman of the gibraltar socialist labour party students group. no deal for us especially is not the ideal scenario. i would like

to ask simonjust not the ideal scenario. i would like to ask simon just in terms of gibraltar, we have so many intrinsic links with the eu, we've got thousands of cross—border workers coming in on a day—to—day basis, we've got trucks with food that come down from the uk through france and spain and into gibraltar. and also in terms of students, i have friends in my group, they study in brussels, some study in copenhagen and elsewhere in the eu. for them it is important, they want to know what's going to happen. with a no deal, u nfortu nately going to happen. with a no deal, unfortunately it is the scenario accompanied by most uncertainty and i don't know how that can be sold to the people of the uk as something thatis the people of the uk as something that is positive? there is no question that gibraltar is an integral part of the united kingdom's territorial legacy and we wa nt kingdom's territorial legacy and we want to make sure that there is a smooth deal. but we have seen over the last few weeks, for example, spain over the last few days has conceded that the rights of uk citizens living there would be upheld in all scenarios. this is reflected in the fact that once you are on this path, once it becomes settled policy number, then of

course sensible arrangements will be made. do you think that will happen? i do. to take up the point about gibraltar i think in many ways the real risk about gibraltar is that if we end up in the backstop, i think isa we end up in the backstop, i think is a real danger, it is certainly a serious possibility, the price we pay to exit the backstop is what really exercises me. we heard from president macron about how he would leverage access by the french to uk fishing waters as part of the price for leaving. we know the spanish are sniffing around gibraltar. i'm absolutely clear in my mind... nikki is shaking her head in disagreement. we run the risk of allowing the spanish to leverage gibraltar if we end up in the backstop. vicky ford, if the government decides no deal is so, settled policy, as simon clarke... the government has been very clear that no deal is not the settled policy. the government is very clear that no deal is not government policy. absolutely. so

there are a huge number of risks to no deal, to people'sjobs, lives, gibraltar, northern ireland... no deal delivers for the fishing industry, it takes us out of the eu and it gives us that transition for the tech sector and other companies. this is why i think it is so irresponsible, there's vast amount in this withdrawal agreement that meets all of those issues. there are concerns about the risks of the backstop, but it cannot become a permanent situation, that backstop. because it would be challenged in the eu courts. the attorney—general has made that very, very clear. that is why i will be voting for this because i don't want to put people's jobs, their businesses, their lives at risk, and i think we need to have that withdrawal agreement. helen says, the prospect of a no deal

except terrifies me, how will the nhs cope, what will happen at uk borders? it seems to madness. mps should act in the best interests of their country instead of thinking about their own political power. this buckle is going to have real consequences for real people, it should not be about pointscoring. this one says... i am bloody angry and frustrated that we the electorate have to rely on a bunch of incompetent arguing schoolkids. parliament, you asked us, we told you, don't ask again, get the job done. kate, do you want a no deal brexit? i take about 17 medications a day and at the moment, what's happened is, for instance, last month, my husband went to collect my medications and one medication wasn't available. and the pharmacist said that it wasn't a manufacturing

problem, it was due to a problem with stockpiling somewhere along the system. and he went to six pharmacists before he got that medication. now, i rely on a balance of those medications to control my condition so that it doesn't tear irate. i also rely on it to control the pain that i am in. but ijust thought, i got extremely worried, i just thought of the people who actually rely on their medications to survive and how they would cope. and so when the health secretary says there will be unhindered supplies of drugs, why aren't you reassured? i'm not reassured because i also saw a report on 18th december on the bbc which said that a lot of gps and pharmacists are also suffering, starting to suffer, from supplies. and then i looked it up on the web and there's a report that

two beaters —— the distributors of drugs had given to mps, a select committee, and they had warned that it is like a cog, a large machine, to supply drugs. and if you interrupt it, everything, a little cog goes and the whole system falls. simon clarke, are you going to tell kate she has got nothing to worry about? i am, i understand the concerns about medicine, my son has a peanut allergy and he needs to access all of the medicines for that, for example. there is no question at all that in the scenario where we leave the european union without a deal, we will maintain medicines access. there will be lots of people watching this programme who share your concern and i want to say... this is literally a matter of life and death. i really do get that. under no scenario are very not

going to be that supply medicines. that really is a copper bottom of a guarantee, we've heard it from the health secretaryjust this week reiterating it again. please do not be taken in by those who want to scare us, be taken in by those who want to scare us, that really is scaremongering. as a labour politician are you going to say you don't believe that? i think people have real concerns, insulin and drugs like that come from europe. this whole thing has made our country, a great nation, into a bit ofa country, a great nation, into a bit of a dad's army type of farce. we have turned into the biggest buyer of fridges at the moment. we have seen of fridges at the moment. we have seen lorries turning kent into a car park in case that should happen. i went to dover to have a on an mps delegation and they showed showed us the role on, role of traffic on the ferries, there is for any checking infrastructure. just a couple of seconds delay makes 17 mile tailbacks on the 20. it happened in 2015. and also wto, there are no

normal countries trade on those couple of failed states maybe, yemen and venezuelan, it is just not a normal thing, and you look at someone normal thing, and you look at someone like trump, he is trying to undermine the wto, in the venn diagram, some things we are agreed on but i am not going to vote for your shabby deal, either. we used to talk about a blindfold brexit, a lot of this deal is fill in the banks. we are playing billion for not very much, and now we have also got added to that a blackmail brexit because she is saying it is my rubbish deal or nothing. and it doesn't have to be like that. there is not parliamentary agreement for that deal so in that case, mps can't decide what they're doing, why not fling it to the people and so, do you want this? you don't believe in democracy if you do that. if it is a good deal, what are you scared of, people will vote for it? it is only

fairand people will vote for it? it is only fair and democratic in a decision as big as this. here are some of the other way is a no deal brexit could affect people. our relationship with the eu is a complex one, built on 40 years' worth of rules and regulations. 3 million eu citizens now live here, with another million from the uk living in mainland europe. after no—deal brexit, their rights would be less clear. after a no—deal brexit, their rights would be less clear. no—one would be forced to leave, and in theory, healthcare, pensions and some benefits could well be restricted. british citizens travelling abroad to europe won't need a visa, at least for a short visit, though a seven—euro charge to travel to the eu would probably be brought in, whether there is a brexit deal or not. one of the most difficult areas is the land border between northern ireland —

part of the uk — and the republic, part of the eu. under no deal, some think there would have to be a form of customs checks to stop goods crossing over without paying tariffs. that is something both countries are desperate to avoid, not least because it could damage the peace process. eu rules also affect things like driving licences. the government says our current cars might not be valid abroad, and we might have to get an international driving licence for some european countries. then there are other schemes like pet passports, mobile phone roaming charges and landing rights for aircraft, all areas that might have to be renegotiated if we leave with no deal in march. by by the way we have had this e—mail from andreas. the man claiming that ano from andreas. the man claiming that a no deal brexit would bring opportunity to the aviation industry, he says, is deluded. i am an airline pilot in one of europe's's biggest airlines which

carries 4 million passengers a year from gatwick alone, not one airline ceo would agree with him, a no deal would mean the uk automatically loses its membership of the european aviation safety agency, which means my uk pilot license and that of my collea g u es my uk pilot license and that of my colleagues immediately becomes invalid on the eu registered aircraft that we operate. i am aware that some of you have not yet spoken. good morning introduce yourself if i am on a gap year before i go to university. ijust wa nted before i go to university. ijust wanted to come back to that comment on flights. there's a lot of scaremongering over no deal but if we leave with no deal there are going to be no agreements whatsoever. that's not the case, it just means there's not one formal unified agreement truth it is in the eu's interest for planes to fly on 30th march after we leave the eu. it is in their interest to make agreement so that their citizens rights are guaranteed here. there are going to be lots of small agreements but actually they are going to have to make compromises

rather than bullying us into a bad deal. do you agree with that? yes, i do. i work in the field of project management, business improvement. as a project, this has been what i could euphemistically call a dogs brea kfast. could euphemistically call a dogs breakfast. nobody could even think, who works in that area, of how you can actually manage something that we can get to the —78 days and... we haven't mitigated a lot of risks. i looked on the government website, which lists a lot of what we are talking about today about what will happen if there is a no deal. and they have actually stated that, for example, emissions gene kilroy agreement, we're going to follow through on that, pets, there's going to be some sort of arrangement on that. summerson things, maybe not formally but they have actually mentioned to anybody who wants to look on that website, there will be arrangements in place. and as my

colleague has said here, it is in the eu's best interests, and that is what we are not getting a lot of, we're not getting a balanced argument. what is the eu going to lose on march 30? can you answer the point that it is in the eu's interest to keep things going, keep planes flying, all the rest of it badly if there is no deal, kevin? me personally? it's ridiculous to think that planes can't fly and people won't be able to transit countries and we won't be able to do ourjobs. and when there is no clarification and no time to plan... it's interesting when simon, i'm fed up of seeing politicians with smug looks on their faces when they're talking to people about medicines and things. i sat in meetings last summer and things. i sat in meetings last summer with the department of transport and chris grayling and the two major concerns were getting medicines into the uk for people and

the food chain. we have no clarification with 77 days to go, of how we are going to do that. you've got a pilot, 77 days, who doesn't know whether he will be able to do what he does. the health secretary has been making very clear preparations, i really don't think... it is really not helpful or healthy for people watching this programme to be scared about people dying because of... i am not scaremongering. this is not a rational or healthy debate, it really is not. this really is now going to be leaving vulnerable people watching this programme scared and it is not founded in reality. so you're guaranteeing that freight will move... hang on, let's. .. i can freight will move... hang on, let's... i can guarantee freight will move... hang on, let's. .. i can guarantee that the british government will not let that happen. can you ask the government to give me some clarification of how it is going to do that because i am in logistics and i speak to people

in logistics and i speak to people in logistics every day and we are no further on than we were a year ago, how we are going to be to do our job, which is to deliver medicines and foodstuffs to the british public. the government is doing a lot of planning towards no deal. but there are huge risks, and anyone who says it is in the eu's interest to then agree something else, please remember that come mid april, the european parliament does into shutdown after the european elections, you then we'll have another six months until another european commission. they can't agree new laws overnight. are we saying it is who brings first? this is why the transition period is so important and why those elements of the withdrawal agreement to give us the withdrawal agreement to give us the time to negotiate the long term relationship are so important. i know rupa huq once more detail on the long—term relationship and this is important. but the eu has said

until we sign this agreement, we cannot get that detail. so please, rupa huq, we are reaching out across the chamber, please let us know what more detail you want on the long—term relationship, let's work that out but please let's get this withdrawal agreement through.” that out but please let's get this withdrawal agreement through. i want to pause that because i want to bring you this short interview if i may, because i'm really interested in your views on this. one of the protesters who's been criticised this week for verbally abusing mps as they walk into parliament has told this programme exclusively that he will keep harassing them if he doesn't get brexit. the man didn't wa nt to doesn't get brexit. the man didn't want to give us his real name. we understand he is called andy alan. he was one of those who pursued conservative mp?anna soubry on monday after chanting abuse at her during a live tv interview. he's one of a small cluster outside parliament who claim to be part of the so called yellow vest movement. he says he began turning up at parliament recently and has known the "leader" of the group, james goddard, for about eight months. he says he was inspired to become an activist becasue of stephen yaxley—lennon —

also known as tommy robinson — a far right activist, and says although is a supporter of tommy robinson, he insists he is just a "normal bloke fighting for brexit not to be overturned". he told our reporter, noel phillips, that it's legitimate for mps to be harassed if they attempt to stop brexit — and they'll keep on doing it if they don't get their way. the police are continuing to investigate whether any criminal offence was committed when conservative mp alice duberry was called a nazi by pro—brexit supporters outside parliament. this was one of the protesters who surrounded the prominent remain campaigner. we understand he is called andy allen. he has posted offensive messages about sadiq khan... she was laughing, the police wasn't nowhere. it started all peaceful and then it kicked off. we we re peaceful and then it kicked off. we were only challenging across the road. yeah, but it's not acceptable... we saw her going over

there and that is why we went after her and things escalated. do you think your ramping up tensions by being here and...? it has been 18 months, it is only two or three weeks before christmas me and other people came down here and they don't like it. are they allowed to do that. some politicians feel a afraid. it's not, what's her name to anyone who got murdered, nothing like that. this is 29-year-old james gothard, a friend of steve's who is said to be a far right activist with a reputation for heckling and intimidation politicians. the way in which you went about protesting on monday, ambushing and m people chasing her down the street. we didn't push her. shouting, swearing at her, was not acceptable? she gives it out, she has got to take it. but it is not right! she came out yesterday and she done the same

thing again, so she's not frightened, ishii? came out, she likes the media, doesn't she? even most of her own party, don't like her, do they? she has only got about 800 majority, she will get voted out next election, won't he? people in her burrow voted out and she wants a second referendum, doesn't she. andy allen says he joined the so—called yellow vest movement six months ago. it is believed the group has about 30 members. i've never been like this in my life. it started off with tommy robinson last year, he got arrested, he got done for 13 months, put in prison. other people get away with murder in this country. to compare us with murder in this country. to compare us with jo with murder in this country. to compare us withjo cox' killer, that's out of order. you've been described as a fascist, are you guys right wing...? described as a fascist, are you guys right wing. . . ? fascists! just normal working people, we've been peaceful for too long, we waited

two—and—a—half years, they‘ re just slowing it down all the time. last night she lost another vote, didn't she? what is going to happen next tuesday? she will lose the vote and it's going to go on for another year, isn't he? people voted to come out, they've got to come out. if we don't get our way, what is going to happen to the country? so snow can carry on until they get brexit, vicky ford, what do you say to someone vicky ford, what do you say to someone like andy allen?” vicky ford, what do you say to someone like andy allen? i would say to him that leave won the referendum, the withdrawal agreement isa referendum, the withdrawal agreement is a way to make sure that we leave the european union in an orderly way and that is what i will be supporting because all of the other options are very high risk.” supporting because all of the other options are very high risk. i think what we saw with anna soubry this week was absolutely disgusting, people have to be able to say what they think without fear of intimidation. i would add that this isa intimidation. i would add that this is a culture which needs to be rebutted by all parties and when the shadow chancellor has encouraged the then work and pensions secretary to

be lynched, you do get this climate of intimidation. that sort of behaviour is unacceptable, there is a media circus outside parliament now, that is what brexit has done to our country, the government needs to roll out no deal and the people need to take back control, we need a final say on this. if we delay, things are going to get worse, not just in society but in business. we have so much uncertainty, we don't invest or recruit, we don't know where we're going. can we just make a decision? i don't think either no deal or the deal are ideal. but we've got to move on. the point about uncertainty, there's lot of uncertainty for students at the moment, i myself originally studied at the university of york that i am currently on my year abroad in paris at the sorbonne university so i've experienced a lot of i would say hostility from people asking me what brexit means for the future of europe, what it means for the future of students, what it means for the future of the erasmus scheme. so i

pose this question to you — how will future students looking to study in the eu be able to have the same opportunities that i have fortu nately opportunities that i have fortunately been able to have after erasmus comes to an end in 2020? you have literally got a few seconds, vicky ford? that is covered in the withdrawal agreement and in the long—term relationship, the students, absolutely. but if we leave with no deal, then it is uncertain. there is no question we will indeed find ways of maintaining these things because european students want to study here... to find a way for something is not enough, people need definition. absolutely. we are a nation divided over every single small tiny issue. people are not being delivered on their promise of 2016, it needs to go back to the people and we need to have our say on the deal to make sure that we are getting what we wa nt sure that we are getting what we want for ourfuture. sure that we are getting what we want for our future. that's it. we know more than we did in 2016, don't

we? thank you all of you forgiving of your time. that's all for now, have a good day. if you enjoyed the crisp winter sunshine of yesterday, you're not going to enjoy the forecast all that much today because it is much cloudierfor many much today because it is much cloudier for many of us, that is the scene at the moment in dorset. plenty of high—level cloud across southern areas at the moment and thickening across central and south—eastern parts as well. a few brea ks south—eastern parts as well. a few breaks in the cloud developing across northern england and southern scotla nd across northern england and southern scotland after a misty and murky start in northern ireland. there may be some breaks in the cloudier as well. it's going to be a frost free night

ahead for all of us, as the warmer air spreads southwards. for most, it will remain quite cloudy and the milderair will remain quite cloudy and the milder air spreads to southern parts so milder air spreads to southern parts so temperatures here, higher than today. you're watching bbc newsroom live. it's 11am and these are the main stories this morning. up to 5,000 jobs are being cut at britain's biggest car makerjaguar land rover, around an eighth of its uk workforce. jlr, a stellar company with a first—class workforce,

have always been clear that their success depends on exports, including to the rest of the european union. the uk's retail sector suffers its worst christmas in ten years with falls in sales for marks and spencer and debenhams. labour leaderjeremy corbyn is set to call for a general election. in a speech wakefield he will say it's the only way to break the brexit deadlock in parliament. as the us government shutdown continues, president trump walks out of a meeting with democratic leaders. they told him they wouldn't fund his border wall with mexico. and the duchess of sussex becomes the royal patron