context growth together. in this context this draft agreement for transition and legal stability of japanese businesses very much welcomed and we truly hope this is realised but of course it is the people of the uk who will make the final decision but at any rate japan and the who will make the final decision but at any ratejapan and the uk who will make the final decision but at any rate japan and the uk will be further developing our bilateral economic ties. translation: i have a question on the economic relationship between japan and the uk and the nuclear power plant construction, for both leaders. what is the view of the

leaders. what is the view of the leaders on the future economic relationship? with regards to hitachi's nuclear power plant construction in the uk, last month it was said, they are in difficult circumstances, it was set if the plan remained unchanged at would be difficult to continue the project. hitachi has asked the uk government to review the plan. could i have the views from both leaders? translation: japan and the uk have established a deep partnership over several years in politics, security and economy. this will remain unchanged, even after brexit. rather, we think that this relationship can only be reinforced. japan — uk alliance, i think our

relationship is even stronger, and asi relationship is even stronger, and as i confirmed to prime minister theresa may, in order to reinforce economic ties between our nations after brexit, based upon the plan which will come into force next month, people start an initiative to establish a new economic partnership with the uk after brexit. we will continue to be closest partners for each other respectively in europe and asia and i look forward to working hand in hand with prime minister may to promote trade. the nuclear power plant project, this is of strategic importance for both nations. i do understand that

stakeholders including hitachi are currently discussing this matter and i will wait until they come to a conclusion. we did not touch upon this issue in our summit meeting today. and if i may on the tpp issue, we welcome the positive comments that prime minister shinzo abe has made about the uk becoming part of that, we look forward to taking discussions further, and as prime minister shinzo abe has said about hitachi, that is a commercial decision for the company, we will be working with them but that is a commercial decision. do you think that speaker is a mutual referee and should he publish advice from his clerks? is it right

that the solicitor representing the speedboat killer receives legal aid while his client as on the run? on the second issue that you raised, this is a shocking case. my sympathies are with the family of the victim. i believe that jack shepherd should give himself up and face justice. the secretary of state forjustice has asked his officials to look into this. jack shepherd needs to give himself up. the question of confidence in the speaker is a matter for the house of commons, not for the government. the issue that underlines this is the question of rules in the house of commons. members of parliament needs to know there is a set of rules in the house of common, they will be

consistent interpretation. the speaker made a decision on a particular amendment. i was surprised at that decision. it is for the speaker to explain that decision. as you will have seen yesterday the leader of the house asked him if he would publish the advice that he had received on that. translation: on the... zero needs to respond. would you like to? translation: i have a question to

prime minister shinzo abe on the japan— uk relationship, later this month you will be meeting president return of russia, what is your view on negotiations on a mac for a peace treaty? there are some steps towards preparation of a second summit. what is your view and your plan with regard to the summit meeting and do you think such a meeting will be realised? 4/70 years there has not been any purpose in negotiations over our been any purpose in negotiations over oui’ northern been any purpose in negotiations over our northern territories. two yea rs over our northern territories. two years ago when we had a meeting,

japan and russia agreed on a new approach for both nations to draw the future profile of the four northern islands and to seek a resolution and the japan — russia summit meeting in singapore last november, president putin and myself agreed that based upon the 1956 joint declaration we will speed up negotiations for this treaty. i will be visiting russia later this month for negotiations. negotiations, i cannot pre—empt or prejudge the outcome. but my hope is to seek as much progress as possible. on dprk, the situation has changed after the historic summit meeting lastjuly. as you are all aware the us and dvrk

are trying to plan for a second summit meeting that next time around i will also have two face the leader. nothing has been decided. we are using various channels to communicate with north korea but i would like to refrain from disclosing any details on that communication because it may have impact on future negotiations. there we have the news conference at ten downing st, theresa may and how japanese counterpart, shinzo abe. interesting to see what the japanese

prime minister had to say about the brexit process. he said he hoped that parliament, the house of commons, would approve theresa may's brexit deal, the one that is being voted on next tuesday, and he repeated this quite a few times, and that the uk would avoid leaving the eu without a deal. at one point he seems to say something along the lines of the entire world wanted to see britain avoiding a no—deal brexit. shinzo abe ‘s meeting in downing street following talks with tvs at me today. on the general theme, an important trading relationship between japan theme, an important trading relationship betweenjapan and the uk, he sets japanese businesses operating in the uk above all wanted to see certainty moving forward, and of course that again is a reflection of course that again is a reflection of the alarm in some quarters of business about the implications of a

no—deal brexit if indeed that happens. let us reflect on that for a moment with our chief cortical correspondent who is at westminster. what did you become fools exchanges? the idea that the entire world is hoping that the uk would not leave the eu without a deal, that is all very well but the people she needs to persuade at the moment titles in the house of commons and at the moment are partners in government, the upi not on board, many on her own side are not on board, the idea she is reaching out to other people todayis she is reaching out to other people today is fascinating. we have heard from downing street this afternoon, she has spoken to union leaders, there are meetings going on that labour mps. at the border is not the movement was back i think this helps her argument that for treating reasons, for countries like japan investing so much in the uk, shinzo abe saying beer he wants to invest even more, but they do want to know

that the trading relationship with the eu is going to be a smooth one. interestingly, that transition period which he mentioned, we are getting to the point now where previously the chancellor philip hammond has said, the point of a transition is to give certainty to business, we are getting to a point now they are already preparing for now they are already preparing for no deal, moving investment away from stuff that would be more productive. all of that is fascinating. theresa may was also asked about a permanent customs union. this is a rumour, after conversations with union leaders, suggestions that was discussed. downing street is denying that there would be an even closer relationship with the eu. something that would infuriate brexiteers, many on her own side, with possibly bring the labour party on board. she chose to talk about her own deal. she said it is an ambitious one, an unprecedented trading relationship

with the eu if it were to go through for a third party ad with a low the uk to strike deals with other countries such as japan. seeing again that she hopes that because she thinks her deal is in the national interest it will notjust be dup and conservative party that will support her deal next week that the entire house of commons. we are five days away from that big vote next tuesday and some of theresa may's all colleagues think she has been slow to reach out. as she left it too late? it is fascinating. there are some on her own side who said 18 months ago there is no point trying to please brexiteers in the party because many of them, dozens of them, will never accept any kind of deal, and they felt from the beginning she should

be looking at trying to form a broader coalition, which would have meant a closer relationship with the eu after brexit. that did not happen. theresa may i am say this has also got to be about the conservative party. but they are a but as they are it is a problem anyway. fascinating also listening to mps such as a labour mp who months ago on the bbc said openly she was considering backing theresa may's deal, nobody contacted her from the government, she heard nothing at all until this week. theresa may's critics will see it as a sign of desperation now, but maybe it had to get to that point before she was able to reach out to other parties. what she could put them is another matter. fascinating to think of that conversation with len mccluskey, that unite union leader, ido mccluskey, that unite union leader, i do not think they have ever spoken before, one thing they have in common, they are both reluctant about the idea of a second referendum, this idea of enshrining workers' rights, making a legally binding promise to make sure the uk

does not slip behind the eu when it comes to workers' rights, could be something that might persuade a few labour mps. thank you. the latest beer from westminster. jaguar land rover has confirmed it is cutting 4,500 jobs — the vast majority from its workforce in the uk. the firm says one of the factors is the uncertainty caused by brexit. most of the jobs will be in office roles — and the cuts come on top of last year's 1500 job losses. jlr is facing several challenges — including a slump in demand for diesel cars — and a sales slowdown in china. the firm is owned by indian conglomerate tata — and is the uk's biggest vehicle maker. one of its rivals — ford —— has also warned of thousands ofjob losses across its european operations — as our business correspondent theo leggett reports. jaguar land rover is the uk's biggest car manufacturer, but the company is losing momentum. this morning, workers heading through the gloom

to its headquarters were bracing themselves for bad news. the company had already announced plans for a major restructuring programme designed to save £2.5 billion. today, it's confirmed this will mean the loss of 4500 jobs worldwide. most of them will come from among its 40,000 uk workers and mainly from office—based staff. one of its biggest problems is in china, where the car market as a whole fell by 6% last year, the first such fall in two decades. that's hurt a number of european manufacturers, butjlr, which has invested heavily there in recent years, suffered particularly badly. another problem lies closer to home — sales of diesel vehicles in europe have tumbled dramatically amid concerns about their environmental impact and fears of possible restrictions on using them. there's no question jaguar land rover has been affected by factors beyond its control, but critics say the company has

made its own mistakes as well. they say its product line—up is sometimes confusing, that it relies too heavily on diesel power, and that it has invested in some models that consumers simply don't seem to want to buy. this is about the long—term, not the short term. where we had to take a little bit of pain, we will gain massively for the future. jaguar land rover has warned that if we leave the eu without a deal its costs could rise by more than £1 billion per year. the company insists it has no plans to close any uk factories, it is a body building a new electric vehicle in austria,

and last year a state—of—the—art factory in slovakia. forjaguar land factory in slovakia. for jaguar land rover to factory in slovakia. forjaguar land rover to survive in the long it needs to be a player in the long it needs to be a player in the global market, that means i think its scope beyond just british manufacturing, it has taken steps to do that already, in europe, it has grown its chinese operations. now it needs to build on that and see that project through. others are also struggling. ford has also announced plans for thousands of job struggling. ford has also announced plans for thousands ofjob losses in europe. jlr insists its business is fundamentally strong, change is inevitable if it is to compete successfully with larger and more powerful rivals. the chief executive ofjaguar land rover, dr ralf speth, has been speaking to our business editor, simon jack — he insists the car—maker is committed to growing its uk business — but that he has serious concerns about the possibility of a hard brexit.

i totally respect the democratic votes of the uk operation. but that is also quite clear that we support 02 no deal, the deal is not perfect, on the other side, it is crucial that we a clear and constructive way. a no deal scenario, you should know that we are producing 3000 vehicles in the uk daily, but also even more engines for the global market. that means, 25 million parts every day, 25 million parts you cannot stockpile for weeks, four months. we exactly have to know how this brexit deal will be orchestrated to be flexible and agile to work accordingly. what happens if we have no deal? you have

said this before, we dues reiterate how bad that i've come you think that would be and what it would mean for your company? you can imagine the logistics. if there is no deal and we have problems in the physical logistics then it is quite clear that will disrupt production. if i miss one part i cannot produce one car. that means if i have a stoppage of one day i miss 60—80,000,000 per day. what that means in terms of jobs? can you imagine? 80 million — 100 million, purdy, can you imagine the liquidity of the company? not very long. you can calculate it on your lawn. our correspondent peter plisner is at the company's headquarters in coventry. talk us through some of these

numbers and the that you see their locally. indeed. the numbers as you have heard, £2.5 billion cost reduction programme, cold charge and excel at it, that has resulted in this call for 4500 redundancies. we have already seen 1520 18 months production workers, now we are seeing redundancies amongst hq workers. they say they have already found £1 billion of improvements, they have been identified, and they have already saved half £1 billion worth of efficiency so they are well on the way but clearly this job cuts announcement today is a big part of that process. what about the reaction? what are people saying about the factors that

are being quoted. the diesel factor, the china factor, the brexit factor, and the credible reasons for the workforce ? it has been described by the company asa it has been described by the company as a perfect storm and most people around here would not disagree. china is probably the biggest problem, closely followed by uncertainty over brexit, and the diesel issue. down the road there is a factory at castle bromwich, the jaguar land rover factory that makes mostly diesel saloon cars, one of the problems as we are turning away from diesel and from saloon cars and going across to suvs. unions except the announcements today because they know that things are bad and something had to happen. they have quite strong admiration for ralf speth, the head ofjaguar land

rover. i interviewed him earlier today at aston villa he considered resigning and he said he thinks about it every day. he has also talked about the fact that he cannot rule out furtherjob cuts either in factories or at hq. a lot depends on what happens in the future on these key factors. thank you. in other news related to the uk's car industry — honda have announced that it will be halting production for 6 days in april. the company says it is to help production recovery — in the event of any delays at borders — after the uk leaves the eu on march 29th. the company has put the contingency plan in place at its swindon factory. the labour leaderjeremy corbyn has once again called for a general election — saying the expected defeat of theresa may's brexit deal in the commons next week —

shows the government has lost its mandate. mps are to vote on the agreement next tuesday. but mr corbyn refused to say when he would call a vote of no confidence in the government — and gave limited backing to the idea of another eu referendum. our political correspondent iain watson reports. if you don't like the government's brexit deal, jeremy corbyn says that there is an alternative but it will take a general election to get it. if the government cannot pass its most important legislation, then there must be a general election at the earliest opportunity. that means calling a vote of no confidence in the government. so when exactly would he push for one? labour will table a motion of no confidence in the government at the moment we judge it to have the best chance of success. clearly, labour does not have enough mps at the moment in parliament to win a confidence vote on its own. but some of his own mps believe

the prime minister's deal could be improved without an election, and at their request theresa may held face—to—face talks yesterday with a number of labour mps focusing on protecting workers' rights and environmental policies after brexit. the impression i got was people coming with other positive agendas would be listened to. could labour mps support the prime minister's deal after further changes? if there is huge progress, that could be a tipping point when we say our red lines have been met, the deal is acceptable. theresa may still hasn't won over the small number of labour mps from leave areas that she met yesterday, but she could get there. they want additional guarantees that the kind of funding which english regions received from the eu would continue after brexit. but many labour mps are still refusing to do business

with the prime minister, and that leaves her deal in trouble. today there was a parliamentary pincer movement to get the prime ministerformally to rule out no deal. i think no deal would be disastrous for britain. so you might expect this cabinet minister to give full throated backing to the prime minister's deal — but not quite. through the debate we need to form a united view as to what kind of deal can command the confidence of the house. and the temperature was raised at westminster when a conservative mp said she would resign from the party if the prime minister accepts no deal. she could say no deal, in which case very many conservative colleagues of hers would resign the whip, myself included. time is running out to get a deal through. mps can largely agree on what they don't want — but not what they do.

iain watson, bbc news. the latest retail sales figures show it was the worst christmas in a decade for britain's shops. sales were broadly flat in december — with no overall growth. sales at marks and spencer and debenhams were down — though they were up at tesco and thejohn lewis partnership. our business correspondent emma simpson reports. elton was drafted in. # it's a little bit funny...# he wasn't the only big name signed up for glitzy retail christmas ads. holly willoughby did her bit too, but this year we weren't letting ourselves go wild with the cash. must have party, after party... it's a bit careful, obviously there's not a lot of money going around, is there? did you spend more this year than last? no, actually i got some good bargains this year because everything was in the sale before christmas. and those sales were more widespread than ever,

but the discounts didn't help debenhams. sales at its uk stores slumped by 6% over the festive season. marks & spencer had a poor christmas too, with a 2.2% drop in sales. clothing, home and food all down. at the discount goods retailer b&m, sales dropped over the quarter. tesco did better — their sales were up on last year. john lewis also enjoyed some growth. it's already said profits would be substantially lower this year, but today it warned it might have to suspend its cherished staff bonus for the first time in more than 60 years. what we've said very clearly is, because of the steps we've taken, we've got a strong financial position. we can afford to pay a bonus. the question is, is it prudent to do so? and of course that's a judgment about what is coming and the uncertainty in the market, and this year of course there's quite a lot of that. there are always winners and losers

when it comes to the battle for our christmas cash, but this year it feels like there are fewer winners than normal, and the industry trade body reckons this has been the worst christmas since 2008. we're in the midst of a perfect storm. technology fundamentally changing the way that people shop, rising costs for retail businesses, and sluggish demand, which took a downturn at the end of last year, so the last few months in december, that critical trading period for many retailers, saw no sales growth at all. a poorfinish, then, for what's been a tough 12 months. the january sales are now in full flow. 2019 could be even more challenging, especially for those starting in a weaker position than last year. emma simpson, bbc news, liverpool. president trump is on his way to the us—mexican border — in the latest attempt to publicise and win support for his

controversial plan to build a wall there. before leaving the white house the president again raised the threat of declaring a national emergency — if congress doesn't give him the 5.7 billion dollars he wants. the democrat—controlled house of representatives has rejected the demand, calling the wall unnecessary. the dispute has led to a government shutdown that's lasted almost three weeks. on and on and on to declare a national emergency, i am on and on and on to declare a national emergency, iam not prepared to do that yet, —— i have the right to declare a national emergency, i am the right to declare a national emergency, iam not the right to declare a national emergency, i am not prepared to do that yet, if i have two, i will. here is the weather. it has been

another cold data daily across parts of southern england and wales but there is milder air coming from the north but that is bringing closed. brea ks north but that is bringing closed. breaks beginning to arrive in scotla nd breaks beginning to arrive in scotland and northern ireland. enough cloud, enough of a breeze to keep frost at bay with milder here. into friday, there will be some sunshine at times. another fairly quiet day. winds yet to pick up. north—westerly breeze. some sunshine at times, the best in eastern england and scotland. these are the temperatures. quite a bit better than today across the southern half of the uk. as we head into the big end we are going to find a mixed picture. some rain at times, mostly across north and west of scotland. there will be some sunshine. milder here. this is bbc news.

the headlines... the car makerjaguar land rover confirms it is cutting 4500 jobs worldwide, most of them in the uk. falling sales in china, concerns about the future of diesel, and the uncertainty over brexit are all being cited as factors. japan's prime minister shinzo abe holds talks with theresa may about trade opportunities after brexit and says his country supports her eu withdrawal agreement. the labour leaderjeremy corbyn calls for a general election at ‘the earliest opportunity‘ to resolve the brexit crisis. it was the worst christmas in a decade on britain's high streets, confirmed by the latest retail sales figures. now, let's get the sport. fifteen people have been arrested in a series of raids in spain

following a year long investigation into match—fixing in tennis. an armenian criminal gang is believed to be behind it and spanish police say 28 of the 83 people implicated are professional players. none of them have been named but one featured in last year's us open. our sports correspondent david ornstein has some of the details of today's spanish operation. this investigation as a whole, which was really kick—started in 2017 by the tennis integrity unit, it focuses and seems to have uncovered a criminalgroup of focuses and seems to have uncovered a criminal group of armenian individuals he worked with one tennis player, according to the report, a professional hair he was essentially delinked person for all of this corruption. there was talk of this corruption. there was talk of 11 houses being searched in spain, thousands of euros in cash seized, along with a shotgun, 50

correct devices, credit cards, luxury vehicles, documentation, 42 bank accounts and balances frozen. this is not a small operation. and you suspect it may only be the tip of the iceberg. the draw has been made for the australian open. andy murray has been runner up five times but has tumbled down the world rankings after hip surgery 12 months ago. he'll face the 22nd seed roberto bautista agut. murray played the world number one novak djokovic in a practice match today and looked a long way off his best. british number one kyle edmund, who reached the semi—finals last year, has a tough match against former wimbledon finalist tomas berdych. cameron norrie takes on american taylor fritz. in the women's draw, british number one johanna konta will play ajla tomjanovic. she lost to the australian in the brisbane international last week. konta reached the semi—finals in melbourne three years ago but is unseeded. there are two other british women in the draw, heather watson faces petra martic and katie boulter meets ekaterina makarova. west ham insist marko arnautovic is not for sale despite interest

from an unnamed chinese club. the striker was the subject of a reported £35 million bid this week. his agent and brother danijel says it is the austrian's "great desire that west ham accept the offerfrom china". but in a statement today west ham said: "marko arnautovic has a contract and we fully expect him to honour it. he is not for sale." england forward raheem sterling has told a young manchester city fan to "be proud of who you are" after he was racially abused. sterling wrote a letter to the supporter after the boy's grandmother revealed he had been having a "tough time" because of the abuse. the manchester city star wrote, "stand tall, don't let them take away your courage." sterling has been the victim of abuse himself, the most recent alleged incident coming in a game at chelsea. we'll have more for you in sportsday at 6:30pm. banks, see later. it's 5:36pm.

theresa may has been welcoming her japanese counterpart shinzo abe to downing street, saying in a joint press conference that they had agreed to develop a ‘deep and dynamic partnership'. mr abe was keen to stress how important it was to japan that the uk avoided leaving the eu with no—deal. he called britain the gateway to the european market. so how close are current relations between the uk and japan? the department for international trade says that in the year tojune 2018 £28 billion worth of trade was done between the uk and japan in both goods and services. trade has risen by 40 per cent over the past 5 years — largely down to stronger business being done in the motor industry, pharmaceuticals and financial services. the eu has already signed a trade agreement with japan — and in doing so created the world's largest free trade area, and scrapping 97% of export duties. in december last year the department for international trade said the deal, long term,

would benefit the uk's gdp by three billion pounds. shinzo abe has always been clear about his concerns over the possible impact of brexit — this is what he and theresa may had to say in a joint news conference a short time ago. as the uk prepares to leave the eu, and raise our horizons towards the rest of the world, our relationship with countries such as japan will be increasingly important and your presidency of this year's g20 allows us to work together towards our shared goals on the global stage. our people face many of the same challenges, but we also both have immense opportunities, and today we agree a deep and dynamic partnership to shape the 21st century together. translation: it is the strong will of japan to further develop this strong partnership with the uk,

to invest more into your country and to enjoy further economic growth with the uk. that is why we truly hope that a no—deal brexit will be avoided, and in fact, that is the whole wish of the whole world. if very interesting exchange their between the prime minister and mr shinzo abe, the japanese prime ministers. with me now is sir david warren, the uk ambassador to tokyo between 2008 and 2012. he is currently an associate fellow on the chatham house asia—pacific programme. several very interesting contributions, there. let's start with the notion from the japanese prime minister that he is in favour of the prime minister's version of the withdrawal agreement, the one thatis the withdrawal agreement, the one that is on the table right now. did you see that as a kind of outright declaration of support in that

agreement, was his from making the distinction between that and a no deal? i see it as japan making it clear that they want at all costs to avoid no deal. prime minister abe said during the conference that the whole world wants britain to avoid no deal. no deal would be catastrophic for japanese investors in the uk, and it is their interest that are his highest concern in the discussions he has had with palm minister may today. it's quite the statement to go from this is what he favours to in his view what the world favours, he was having talks with other leaders as well, he could not have put it more strongly. he made that point strongly. as you said, there are over 1000 japanese companies in the uk, not only employing hundreds and thousands of people directly in the supply chain, but dependent on friction that trade with the eu. and notjust in terms

of exporting finished product but in terms of the millions, and it is literally millions, of cross—border transactions taking place every month which are currently undocumented because of our membership of the customs union. it is their interests and the interests of otherforeign is their interests and the interests of other foreign investors that i think is uppermost in his mind. making the point again in terms of that broader eu deal which we mentioned, the £3 billion benefit again which the government itself has catalytic, but that has to be seen again in the context of trying to secure that in a post brexit world. and that is where the uncertainty comes in. indeed. and it will be in the british government's mind as well, of course, how easy will it be for us to replicate the benefits of that free trade agreement with the yearjapan after brexit? i thinkjapan should be one of the less problematic countries for us to secure that sort free trade arrangement with, but we have to be realistic about that. japan will expect more from the uk,

negotiating bilateral, then it could obtain from negotiating with us as pa rt obtain from negotiating with us as part of a 28 member trading block. and we should equally expect to secure something more from japan than we were able to obtain from the eu. so otherwise i say it should be relatively unproblematic, these things take time and will get more complex as we get into positions. we had the word gateway several times in the news conference, is that in danger in any way? is the prime ministers signalling, the premise of japan, signalling that if a no deal we re japan, signalling that if a no deal were to happen, the status, the entire status of britain's relationship economically with japan would be somehow at risk? the japanese have made clear from the beginning of negotiations with the eu that they want to secure frictionless trade between the uk and eu. it was in their document in september 2016, it has been in every public statement, the japanese ambassador to the uk has made this

point, when japanese company ambassador to the uk has made this point, whenjapanese company since spoken to ministers, very explicitly, frictionless trade is crucial. today prime minister abe welcomed with the government have got on this because he sees it as a transition to the sort of arrangement that japanese investors wa nt to arrangement that japanese investors want to see. but they will be worried that the political declaration which companies the withdrawal agreement doesn't contain detailed language on a common rule or frictionless trade, the wording of the political declaration is aspirational rather than concrete. we know brexit is casting a long shadow over a of things. when we look at the relationship between, not misses me and mr abbey —— mrs may and mrabe, not misses me and mr abbey —— mrs may and mr abe, how would you characterise the relationship between the uk and japan? oath a warm and friendly relationship, paul stations -- politicians on both

sides have invested decades in building that relationship. the key to that is trade and investment, but it goes wider than that, as the government reflected today in their announcement of an enhanced research partnership, higher education, science and innovation, people to pupil exchanges, this is a relationship which is based on friendship and a genuine sense of partnership. but trade and investment is at the heart of it and japan has a stake in brexit because they have computed immeasurably to british prosperity of the 45 years that we have been members of the european union. —— contributed immeasurably. thanks to you for coming in to talk to us today. jeremy corbyn has stepped up his calls for general election. he said at the earliest opportunity if theresa may's deal is rejected by mps. as mps continue to debate her

proposals, what is the likelihood of winning that vote? my colleague christian fraser has this assessment of the parliamentary challenge facing the prime minister. so, here we go again. the mps are debating theresa may's brexit deal. the vote, remember, will be on tuesday, and that for now appears to be the only thing we can be certain about. there will be a vote. but everyone agrees that getting a commons majority will be an almighty struggle. so before we look at which way the vote may go, let's remind ourselves how many mps the parties have here in the house of commons. we can take out the speaker and the two deputy speakers, because they don't vote. the conservatives have 316 mps — that's two more than before the no—confidence vote in theresa may, because two suspended tories got the party whip back. but that's still not enough to command a majority. now, in this parliament the conservatives have relied on a confidence and supply agreement with the dup, whose ten mps support the prime minister in key votes. and over here, on the opposition benches, labour has 254

mps, the snp have 35, the liberal democrats have 11. they've lost one, who resigned to back the prime minister's plan. and there are eight independents, four plaid cymru mps, and the green party has one. but as we know, brexit has divided the two main parties. some mps will not be doing what their whips tell them. so let's go next door to the lobby, to remind ourselves who doesn't like the prime minister's deal. well, first, there's the dup — all ten of them. they can't vote, they say, for a deal that includes the irish backstop, and so far there's been nothing the prime minister has offered which would reassure them. so they are still firmly in our "no" column, at least for now. and then there are 99 brexit supporting conservatives who are on the record as opposing the deal. there are also tory remainers who say they will rebel — there are at least 12 of them. so the total number of conservatives against this deal stands,

by our tally, at 111. next comes labour and all the other opposition mps, and altogether that adds up to another 312 votes against the prime minister. who's going to vote for the deal? well, the best estimate from bbc research is 205 conservatives will fall in behind her, and beyond that there's still only the additional support of that one solitary former lib dem. which means on these calculations the prime minister would be short by 114 votes, and that, incidentally, is 19 more votes against her than just over a month ago, when we last looked at these figures. but i remind you, as we did last time, that we don't know how many of this group who are against might abstain, lowering that overall total, and we don't know how many labour mps might back the deal, who haven't yet made a decision. we don't yet know what further concessions or clarifications might come from the eu between now and the vote on tuesday, so all that

could change the numbers. at least we won't have to wait long to see what the final tally is. what comes after that — well, that's anyone's guess. fascinating insight into the parliamentary numbers, and a sense of where we might be at the moment. the headlines on bbc news... the car makerjaguar land rover confirms it is cutting 4500 4500 jobs worldwide — most of them in the uk. japan's prime minister — shinzo abe — holds talks with theresa may about trade opportunities after brexit and says his country supports her eu withdrawal agreement. it was the worst christmas in a decade on britain's highstreets — confirmed by the latest retail sales figures. the family of a teenager who was murdered in east london have

said he "had absolutely no affiliation with gangs". 14—year—old jayden moodie was stabbed to death by attackers who knocked him off a moped in waltham forest on tuesday in what police believe was targeted. this is what jayden's cousin had to say. he was a 14—year—old miner who had his whole life ahead of him which should never have been viciously taken from him. it has been very distressing that the majority of reports about jayden have distressing that the majority of reports aboutjayden have mentioned london gangs. i would like to stress that he had recently moved from nottingham to london and had absolutely no affiliation with gangs. focus needs to be on the fact that he has been brutally murdered in cold blood and deserves a fair chance at justice as

in cold blood and deserves a fair chance atjustice as much as anyone else in this situation. that was just short while ago. the funeral of the former leader of the liberal democrats, lord ashdown, has taken place in the village of norton sub hamden in somerset. paddy ashdown died just before christmas aged 77 just two months after revealing that he was being treated for bladder cancer. he led the lib dems for 11 years and was mp for yeovil between 1983 and 2001. the duchess of sussex is to become patron of four organisations that champion causes close to her heart — including the national theatre and charities supporting unemployed women and animal welfare. the announcement is being seen as a milestone for meghan markle, outlining her integration into the working life of the royal family. our correspondent richard lister reports. she commands attention wherever she goes,

and the duchess of sussex says she wants to use that profile to further the causes she believes in. today she was in west london, at the charity smart works which helps unemployed and vulnerable women get into the job market. whatjob did you get? it's one of the four organisations she is to be patron of. another is the national theatre, an unsurprising choice for a woman who used to be an actress. we can get it out of the way that i'm not interested. she believes the arts can be used to bring people from different backgrounds together. it's one of two patronages passed onto her by the queen. the other is the association of commonwealth universities. meghan has already given some insight into her support for that organisation in a speech in fiji last year. and while progress has been made in many areas across the commonwealth, there is always scope to offer more opportunities to the next generation of young adults, and specifically to young women. going to drop it, give me the ball?

animal welfare is the focus of the fourth patronage. the mayhew charity works to improve the lives of animals in britain and around the world. for all these groups, royal endorsement can mean both a higher profile and more cash. at smart works today, meghan had to choose outfits forjob interviews. at smart works today, meghan ——helped to choose outfits forjob interviews. she, of course, will be a working mother in a few months‘ time. these patronages will be a chance to use her position to make a difference and to show us what kind of royal she wants to be. some interesting questions now about the kind of role the duchess wants to develop. i‘m joined by caroline yates, chief executive of the animal welfare charity mayhew — one of the charities that the duchess of sussex has become patron of today. also with me is sunday times royal correspondent, roya nikkhah. good of you both to come in, thank you. i will start by asking, how does this kind of association

translate into help on a measurable scale, other than the kind of prestige which comes with it, obviously, how does it help you?” think for mayhew, the size of our charity, and medium—sized charity, it is massive, it will be a massive boost to our profile. and to the way we wa nt boost to our profile. and to the way we want to address animal welfare issues and social welfare issues, particularly in the urban environment. it‘s a massive boost. and it‘s for morale for our staff and student stumbled here, it‘s great, as well. in terms of the activities you promote and eventually plan, how much of a role would the duchess play? to what extent a re would the duchess play? to what extent are you able at this point to tell people, this is the kind of thing she‘s likely to be doing, or are you not at that stage yet? not quite at that stage. the announcement today and we have an official visit next wednesday, but it‘s, official visit next wednesday, but it's, i official visit next wednesday, but it‘s, i think after that has been sorted out and things have sort of comes down a little bit, we will be

able to know what she‘s actually going to be able to do with us and we will have meetings with her team at kensington palace. just a shadow bit of light, about the way this happens, for a lot of people it‘s a bit of mystery, of charities would wa nt bit of mystery, of charities would want this kind cessation. how would you get to the point where this kind of relationship can be developed? —— wa nt of relationship can be developed? —— want this kind of association. the richer? how does it work? to be honest, it came out of the blue for us. obviously we knew she had rescue dogsin us. obviously we knew she had rescue dogs in the states, one which she brought over, and she had an interest in animal rated things. and i think possibly we‘re relatively local to kensington palace, maybe the type projects that we are profiling at the moment, which is, you know, community outreach rather than just you know, community outreach rather thanjust our you know, community outreach rather than just our shelter work, it‘s that human animal bond, i think, which resonates with her, this to things we are doing. so maybe she picked up something on social media about us. and that has just tweaked

her interest. no surprise! and it's not just her interest. no surprise! and it's notjust animal welfare, her interest. no surprise! and it's not just animal welfare, there her interest. no surprise! and it's notjust animal welfare, there is a range of things —— nice surprise. douglas do what has been agreed and what you make of it. four patronage is associated today, there is's smart works, which helps vulnerable woman back into employment, promoting confidence and skills. the other two are interesting, the national theatre, which the queen has been patron for a long time, handing that to megan, and the universities, also handing out over. that's a big vote of confidence and her granddaughter in law, and interesting i think, all four of them, megan is able to bring issues she was interested in before joining the royal family into her new official lie. these are notjust charities she think she would have

to support, they think she is passionate about, animal welfare, empowering women, when she got made that day in may, on the royal website, i'm a feminist and proud to bea website, i'm a feminist and proud to be a feminist. all of these things are things that resonated with her before her life as a duchess. what is also interesting is that she is very keen to maintain some sort of connection with the industry which she worked in, acting, and the national theatre will be thrilled, i'm sure, from crewmembers to actress, someone who understands that industry is now the royal patron. how much thinking goes into the selection of the charities that she will be associated with?l the selection of the charities that she will be associated with? a lot. as you said, kensington palace will have been inundated with requests, so have been inundated with requests, so it's amazing that they came to you. but we thought worse the end of la st you. but we thought worse the end of last year, meghan out and about, going to charities, pen and pad in hands, doing a lot of her own

homework. and the other interesting thing here, she's only chosen four, not many, but i think it shows she wants to be a hands—on patron and notjust some sort wants to be a hands—on patron and not just some sort of figurehead goes once a year. in terms of the number of events, you‘re going to be told straightaway, the realistic about what she can do, obviously. but let‘s say an average year, what, you would plan to have the duchess therefore one or two events? is a say, we have to wait for instruction from the palace, but she did intimate that when she goes on maternity leave, she wanted to be quite hands on and off is that we will wait to be hell long she will be off —— how long she will be off on maternity leave. it's a nice turn up, isn‘t it? on maternity leave. it's a nice turn up, isn't it? it is. nice you both, thank you both. —— nice to see you both. i‘d better go over to the weather or he will complain again that i am have i got that reputation? you‘re

never late, you‘re always on time! but nothing very exciting to talk about, we are dominated by high—pressure, mother coming in from the atlantic. a cold start this morning and a cold day for some parts but that cold air is being pushed away to the new continent, you can see our air is coming from that area of high pressure from the atlantic, so mild, but a lot of clout. it‘s gloomy out there, across england and wales, it has been dampened drizzly. but cloud beginning to break up further north, particularly in scotland, early in the evening. dampened misty weather crossing when the wales this evening, that cloud continued to push its way southward, dry weather arriving as well. in northerly breeze, not particularly strong, but enough cloud overnight to keep frost at bay, temperatures of about 3—4. heading into friday, again, a fairly

quiet day, drive from most places. some sunshine at times, the best of which across northern england and eastern scotland. a few showers in the north—west, perhaps, but on the whole dry weather to come. temperatures 8—10, quite a bit better than today, across the southern half of the uk. into the weekend, and mixed job, really. we will find when strengthening this weekend but still continuing to draw in the milderair weekend but still continuing to draw in the milder airfrom the weekend but still continuing to draw in the milder air from the atlantic. winter should help to break up the cloud a bit more but there will be some rain at times. —— wind should help to break up the cloud. sunshine will follow behind but we will look at the next weather system to increase clouding northern ireland, scotla nd increase clouding northern ireland, scotland and northern england, and bringing rain to western parts of scotland. temperatures nine, ten, even 11, again that bit milder on saturday. wind stronger as well in that area of high pressure continued

to pick up over the weekend, that‘s the next system coming in. you can see the rain moves across scotland out across the sea, that weather front moving southwards, very weak, not much rain on it. we will find some showery rain pushing down from the north, most of it effectively northern half of scotland, once again, afew northern half of scotland, once again, a few showers coming across the irish sea on that stronger north—west of the wind. temperatures helped a bit by more sunshine, maybe a little higher, up to around 11 or 12. 4500 jobs are to go at the uk‘s biggest car—maker. jaguar land rover blames a slump in demand for diesel vehicles, slower sales in china

and brexit uncertainty. well, we exactly have to know how this brexit deal will be orchestrated to be flexible and agile, to work accordingly. jaguar land rover is a major employer in the west midlands — now there are fears over the impact these cuts could have. if they're going to cut down the work, we're going to lose work, so the future doesn't look that good at the moment — for any of us. and tonight another major car—maker, honda, has told its uk workforce it‘s shutting production in april to deal with brexit. also on the programme: the japanese prime minister warns against a no—deal brexit after talks with theresa may.