on the great brexit board. ?and after us china talks in beijing, where stand the trade hostilities which overshadowed the global economy throughout last year? in 2019, is this trade war to be hot, cold, on or off? my guests this week; ?agnes poirier of news magazine, marianne. isabel hilton of the website, china dialogue. thomas kielinger, author and long time correspondent of die welt. and john fisher burns of the new york times. welcome to you all. agnes, i'm going to start with you. theresa may is famously resilient and the past week has been yet another stress test for her. the government sustained two defeats in the house of commons, and dead on delivery was the verdict on her withdrawal bill, even from many of her own mps. but nothing daunted, the prime minister has mounted a last ditch campaign to win over political enemies. should we call this determination and admire it or call it desperation and pity it? and what's mrs may's next move if,

as widely expected, her bill is defeated in the house of commons on tuesday? agnes, isaid agnes, i said i was when to start with you and i am. is a determination we should admire or desperation we should pity? well, how to not be unrespectable to our british by prime minister. i'm going to try. this pantomime has been going on for 30 months. i think the view from europe has been one of admiration for the british resilience she has shown but i think we have also come to a stage of deep exasperation and also deep concern at what is going on. we also see that the opposition, jeremy corbyn, there is nothing to admire in a sta nce there is nothing to admire in a stance about great —— brexit. he is on the side, he does not want a

second referendum. he wants brexit really, he has everything to lose by it. he is not serving his country either. what is the view of germany? it is one of sadness and exasperation but also deep concern as time goes by and the deadline comes. i want to ask isabel, the only great around the table. we have the last—minute campaign by the prime minister, we often have some of talking about a surge of far right extremism if the bill does not go through. is that a fear or is visible reminder of the least worst option? if you remember some weeks ago we had a people watt march of 700,000 people and we had a brexit march of two and a half. be far

right does not have the numbers and i think it is disgraceful to seek cabinet ministers think we will break your windows if you do not deliver. that is the kind of message of what they are saying and it is absolutely disgraceful, and we have absolutely disgraceful, and we have a government that can not deliver its promise. we are beginning to see that parliament cannot deliver this project and i think the next app, if we are thinking strategically, is going back and having another vote. there is nothing under —— there's nothing under mac classic —— there's nothing under mac classic —— there's nothing under mac classic —— there's nothing under the aquatic. we thought the whole world wants to see the avoidance of a no—deal brexit, from the japanese politician. do you think he is right in the assessment thatis think he is right in the assessment that is what the world wants? there

isa that is what the world wants? there is a limited use for bringing in foreign leaders to help your cause. we saw that the time of the referendum in 2016 when barack 0bama was called on for a plead for the right outcome of the referendum, it did not happen and it was useless. the same applies to the japanese prime minister saying his thoughts oi'i prime minister saying his thoughts on the issue. it is futile to think you can solve the conundrum at the heart of british politics by letting foreign leaders speak out. they have to solve it by their own imaginations. at the moment parliament is taking control from theresa may who has an article of and anyway and is totally dependent oi'i and anyway and is totally dependent on the votes of the ten northern ireland deputy 's. i think the situation is such, to begin with we are not going to be able to carry the march deadline for brexit. it is

not way to happen because there is so not way to happen because there is so much unfinished is less and prime minister may is not prime minister of britain alone. would you think will happen? an extension of article 50. in the end i think there will be brexit. we are becoming to feel that britain has to get over its own sort of aversion to europe and get brexit don. the proof of brexit is in the leading. something has to go and britain has been at loggerheads with europe for so long. very few good word to be said in the past about the eu and even now there is so much vitriol poured on brussels. but does have a separation and severance of relations and see what happens. the proof of brexit lies in the leading and then we will see. un-american view, —— on an american view. do you

agree it is not a moment forforeign leaders and yet, where is trump? know, how much time do we have? i wa nt to know, how much time do we have? i want to make another point on this which is i think the story of 2019 will be on the one hand, we will show, and i speak as a second brit on the panel, part of the social genius of the country is to muddle through. i think we will muddle through. i think we will muddle through and the media has played its pa rt through and the media has played its part in slightly over cooking all of this. are using say we're back to the religious wars of the early 17th century? know i don't. i the religious wars of the early 17th century? knowl don't. i do. will we muddle through that will be took peoples heads off? no, i think the extra miss will be marginalised and there is a great deal of sense to be

found both parties in parliament, and solutions will be found at acting as we look for that solution, there are something else we need to look at. that is what is happening in europe itself. i think a lot of europeans speak as if there is something immutable about the european union and its views on the matter but actually it is in flux, in the middle of the year it might well be in great crisis. you can see the light of the density politics all across europe, not least in france, germany and italy, and i think as we muddle through we may find a new, rather different in europe to negotiate with the one we have been negotiating with for the past three months. tigger through the modelling of next week in your view. i should the modelling of next week in your view. ishould have the modelling of next week in your view. i should have declared you as the other brit. are you remain or a lever? i think i am confused. the other brit. are you remain or a lever? ithinki am confused. he is

with the majority in that case. well, iam. with the majority in that case. well, i am. i think we will define if brexit is enacted stock i think we'll do find it we don't. i do not think this is the moment of historic crisis that people have prevented it —— presented it to be. crisis that people have prevented it -- presented it to be. do think theresa may's bill will go through on tuesday? no. which one we get to? it seems to me that she will find a way even with the new deadline she has to come up with a plan b, which in one way or another allows for a second or even third vote on her plan as the weeks passed, but i do think we will find a way through this. it will not be a disaster in either case. i agree with his point about europe and it is not in a fine

vessel at the moment which leads people to think it is not the point to re—enterthe people to think it is not the point to re—enter the european union and thatis to re—enter the european union and that is why i think we should give succoui’ that is why i think we should give succour to the trend towards brexit at all cost. may be a different kind of matter to the missy at the moment but they will want out, i do not think they will decide to rejoin the european union in its current form. you have to let it happen for goodness' sake. it is worth remembering that when david cameron ra nter to remembering that when david cameron ranter to his very ineffective renegotiation prior to the referendum that... he did not get much help. if the opinion union had been a little bit more helpful we probably would have had no vote for brexit. the same applies now. the european union, somewhat recast by the elections in may, by the change, if not in leadership but the change

of attitude and leadership in france and germany, resents the possibility for renegotiation some weeks or months from now which would be a happier outcome for now. weeks and months, we may or may not have. what you think of the extension on article 50? i see no way around the extension because clearly we're not going to resolve this by march the 30th. the extension runs into brother complications. there are elections in europe, written with still be technically a member. we hold elections that the european parliament, that seems odd. there forces and processes that might yet further but i think the real problem is the instruments by we might muddle through for some effect is the two major political parties in the two major political parties in the government to. they're held hostage by extreme elements of their respective ideologies and the

government is weak. no matter how much you postpone it i don't see these particular instruments, which had been broken for two years, suddenly coming together in a way that we need to. just a quick question on actress's point on labour, you mention to political parties being extremist or held hostage. they would not acknowledge that definition but labour, we heard corbin speaking last week. is both a moment of seizing the day or a moment of seizing the day or a moment of seizing the day or a moment of fudge? where is he going? where corbin is going is a mystery to me. you what the general election, it is a poisoned chalice. he was to have to take on this european mass. the fantasy that labour could go in a magically resolve this is choosing a magical unicorn across the horizon. this has to be resolved. yet 70% of his membership you want to remain. he

pledged to listen to his membership, it is really fascinating. agnes, are we heading for muddling on brexit?” wishjohn was true we heading for muddling on brexit?” wish john was true but i we heading for muddling on brexit?” wishjohn was true but i think it is good to take a look at the bigger picture. 0n the last few weeks i've been reporting on italian politics, an france and brexit and suddenly i'm great extremely pessimistic because it looks as if we are witnessing the end of an era. 70 years of stability, security paid for i in american, the marshall plan, and we are going... we need to step back and look at the history of europe. europe is inherently a very unstable continental. you're looking back 1000 years. it seems to me there is hungary, poland, france, italy, brexit is a big collective

about. we are losing our nerve. they fixed at 40 is a given but it is not. europe is too small a space for too much politics. is your view that mps are having to grapple with the consciences as we speak so that when they go to vote on tuesday they should consider if they extended their view, if a solution, the horizon, because there is a more listening your about there? the solution must be found but i think it is really... all i see is division in europe and i cannot rememberwho division in europe and i cannot remember who penned that expression, i'io remember who penned that expression, no system are —— narcissism of small differences. i'm quite as mystic i'iow. differences. i'm quite as mystic now. brexit isjust one of many

problems that britain and europe, i do not think the should to sing wish them, we are all in this together. if the picture agnes paints but europe is right, if i was an mp that would strengthen my resolve to leave the european union and stay with brexit because in the end muddling through as britain might be the most sta ble through as britain might be the most stable country in this turmoil. looking at the timetable to remember that the negotiation of the relationship that the uk will have with europe lies ahead. there is ple nty of with europe lies ahead. there is plenty of flexible tea in that and that negotiations is going to take place during the period when europe is being recast eyes on elections. it isa is being recast eyes on elections. it is a moving target, indeed. we're going to leave that part of the discussion and we're giving mps plenty to think about. were going to move from narcissism of small difference to the narcissism of big differences. expect nothing and you are never disappointed. the kind of saying which passes for wisdom in some quarters and it certainly seemed to pay off for financial markets this week.

after a grim 2018 in us china relations, expectations of trade talks in beijing were so low that even a few small crumbs were enough to comfort stock markets and the us dollar. and american trade negotiators weren't the only visitors to beijing. north korean leader kimjong un was also in town, talking to chinese president xijinping about the prospects for a second denuclearisation summit with president trump. trade and security? two huge dimensions of the us china relationship with kim jong un as wild card. at the start of 2019, how does it all fit together? i think this is a question first for isabel as the long—time china watcher in our midst. let us talk about the trade relationship. we saw the toggle into a third day, we saw

the toggle into a third day, we saw the chinese making them warmish boys is about possessions, we sought president trump talk about progress and markets left. do you share the optimism? thing we're pulled back from the brink. hanging over this is the threat that board tariffs would be opposed by trump at these talks are not reach some sort of conclusion. 0n the upside both leaders want a positive result so xi jinping's economy was already in tricky times. we are after the big industrial boom, wherein the middle income, queasy waters. how are we going to get to the next phase? that isa going to get to the next phase? that is a long—running problem. long—running background this particular crisis and then comes this crisis and that really doesn't help. on the other hand on the us side there are bits of trump's heartland that are hurting, so the farms and the markets which he seems to set store, was greatly troubled.

the fact that the least sensible people are talking and listening to talk about is positive and the fact that the big trade guru on the chinese side will indeed visit united states also just positive momentum and avoiding the next phase of all—out war on and that is very good. in the longer term i think the structural problem remains which is how do you have a free—market relationship between a conventional western capitalist economy and china, which is not a conventional capitalist economy in which all the resources of the state are rock to bear on their economic relations, industrial policy and so on. that creates a profoundly unequal plainfield. the chinese will grant it was a bit more market access, they will make further noises about they will make further noises about the late economic reforms but can only go so far without beginning to contact

only go so far without beginning to co nta ct a only go so far without beginning to contact a system —— going to unpack a system which is only been consolidated over the last five yea rs. consolidated over the last five years. that is a party system of international economic relations, of overseas investment, all of which comes together in a package which is the chinese economy. we will deal with the fundamental asymmetry of systems with the fundamental asymmetry of syste ms a ny with the fundamental asymmetry of systems any moment butjohn, first, i wanted to about trump and bush on the point that isabel is making because the farmers is one problem, he has divisions on his own administration in dealing with china, we have the box and the dogs, and he has a gridlock and paralysis politically in washington at the moment. how strong is the incoming into fight with china? my perspective is formed but i been to china and the last five years.

latimer thought i was in a paddy wagon taken from prison when i'd been wrongfully imprisoned for allegedly spying. i read a great deal about china in the ensuing years, i was unprepared for what i found. the modernisation is completely astonishing. wonderful to see, but along with it it seems to me that china is no longer the way it was when i was first in china, and will beginning to see that in the flexible to the china is beginning to show in its trade relations with the united states. when i was in the kicking central prison —— peking central prison, the trade was less than $1 billion. now the letter states as a trade deal with china which is somewhere between the engine 75 and $400

billion. that is a real problem and this on so many other things, just because you dislike trump and there is much to dislike, does not mean he is much to dislike, does not mean he is wrong about everything. no one is saying that but does he have the discipline, the patients and adherents .com to take on, which as you said,... part of the answer is will trump survive as president of the united states? that is an open question. but whoever succeeds hearted —— question. but whoever succeeds hearted — — whoever succeeds question. but whoever succeeds hearted —— whoever succeeds him, whether liberal order democrat or republican, will have two deal with china. china is able to change, recognises that the united states cannot continue with the deindustrialisation, the transfer of jobs that that massive trade deficit represents and again, i think that

china and the united states will work out these difficulties to convertible extent for the very simple reason that they have two.|j wa nt to simple reason that they have two.|j want to get the side of the table. be point that visible made about the very asymmetry at the heart of this economic resume, ‘— very asymmetry at the heart of this economic resume, “ resume. germany isa economic resume, “ resume. germany is a huge trade with china. what is the view from berlin? when push comes to schaub, we will fight with trump because we are all interested in seeing a renumeration of the chinese attitude towards trade, but is there state system speaks against this but we have to keep wishing. philosophically we will side with trump, as much as we have other complaints about him. we had big trade with china but there has been some intellectual property theft as their words, for example, in some intellectual property theft as theirwords, for example, in the building of ourtrains

theirwords, for example, in the building of our trains when germany was the number one and the chinese began to copy it and acquire their technology and intellectual property. in our building fast trains all over the world. the lack of the plainfield is about doctor but, i think in this case we would keep our fingers crossed that trump gets on with in the current stocks, which are a bit of the warming period somewhat. we do not know whether we will get a positive but i think we will side with trump in this dispute. given the european view on that because of course, trump has been white task —— white cut—off on the trade relationship with europe, has been tough with china? europeans have a lot to lose in that trade war because the export a lot more to china. so guess so yes. but there is an element of

brexit in that trade war, it is the uncertainty. it is not good for anyone. for importers, exporters, manufacturers. al easily conceive from europe that both sides have interest to actually resolve or at least leave the 10% trade tariffs where they are not another 25% hike in march. crossing fingers that this truce will go on. yes, i would good to see chinese and intellectual property but it is extraordinaire to watch trump and it is due to, in part, but importantly to that trade war so we cannot go on. no. we need

to widen security. isabel, ijust wa nt to to widen security. isabel, ijust want to bring on kimjong un, is that an interesting wild card in the us china relationship. we've seen him make his fourth trip in less than a year to beijing. is turning into eight obedient battle? is xi jinping going to use him as a human shield against trump?|j jinping going to use him as a human shield against trump? i think he has been tacitly interesting because for visits to beijing but also russia. there is talk of him going to seoul. this is a young man playing his cards skilfully and he knows how to balance beam and has other needy american president, china looking to see what advantage can get out of the situation and ignores pull in putin to say i'm not boneless. —— friendless. that's all we have time for this week.

do join us again next week same time same place. thank you all around the table and thank you for watching. goodbye. hello, after a brief foray into something cold for the week we are back into the milder weather is the —— back into the milder air this weekend to. they'll be tempered somewhat by increasingly windy conditions and compare by the week there is a more rain around. nowhere near as cold as is cross central and eastern europe, subzero for many across after the afternoongot winds instead coming off the atlantic and one of the milder spots across europe with temperatures climbing into double figures this afternoon. with it though, rain across southern counties the lunchtime will have

cleared, one or two showers and the channel islands, stays down for northern and western parts of scotland, more persistent rain in the highlands and the odd shower elsewhere in the west. the personal islands, east of scotland, eastern england, some sunny spells, sheltered from that winter. bring in temperatures in the double—figure category for just about. mac we stay with that mild when appointed to tonight. imago across by the north—westerly bringing in further spots of rain across the country. wettest weather across another massive scotland and later into northern ireland but mac we're just not as heavy as temperatures don't really drop away, eight to ten or 11 degrees as we start tomorrow morning. it will be a windy start, high pressure to the south—west of us high pressure to the south—west of us allowing those winds to strengthen. still allowing for the weather fronts, not predict we put in once but unless they were first others across the country bringing her to showers england and walesmac some places will stay dry, especially across the south but favourite of cloud during the

afternoon. but it favourite of cloud during the afternoon. better chances of you as we go through sunday but showers and continue in the west. to far north and west of scotland that will continue with further showers and more persistent rain. debord is here dropping away and winds touching 40, 50 miles an hour. that cold air, 2 degrees and berwick will fly down eastern parts of scotland and in good for monday. 0ne fly down eastern parts of scotland and in good for monday. one two isolated showers to the east but was basis try for monday. with sunny spells increasing amounts of cloud the west village on. a few spots of rainfor the west village on. a few spots of rain for western scotland and northern ireland ow—mac most of us should have a guiding. —— most of should have a guiding. —— most of should have a dry day. those debit is left on tuesday and friday but cold it was on the way for the weekend. this is bbc news. i'm rebecca jones.

the headlines at midday: prison sentences of under six months could be scrapped in england and wales for all but violent and sexual offences, under plans being considered by the ministry ofjustice. president trump digs his heels in over his mexican border wall as the us government shutdown enters a record—breaking 22nd day. hundreds of thousands of workers have not been paid. we can work really hard to get this education and make sure that we can provide for our family and still end up wondering if we're going to be able to pay our bills. europe braces itself as heavy snow continues to fall bringing chaos to a number of alpine regions. austria suffers the worst conditions for 30 years. major tech companies showcase their freshest innovations at the ces expo in las vegas.