austria suffers the worst conditions for 30 years. now on bbc news it's time for dateline london with carrie gracie. hello and a very warm welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week, the uk living on the edge with mps about to vote on the most momentous question of the age — withdrawal from the european union. is it a time for conscience, strategic vision or tactical voting? we game out the moves for mp5, government and other key players on the great brexit board. ?and after us—china talks in beijing, where stand the trade hostilities which overshadowed the global economy throughout last year?

in 2019, is this trade war to be hot, cold, on or off? my guests this week —?agnes poirier of news magazine marianne. isabel hilton of the website china dialogue. thomas kielinger, author and long time correspondent of die welt. and john fisher burns of the new york times. welcome to you all. agnes, i'm going to start with you. theresa may is famously resilient and the past week has been yet another stress test for her. the government sustained two defeats in the house of commons, and dead on delivery was the verdict on her withdrawal bill, even from many of her own mps. but nothing daunted, the prime minister has mounted a last ditch campaign to win over political enemies. should we call this determination and admire it, or call it desperation and pity it? and what's mrs may's next move if, as widely expected, her bill

is defeated in the house of commons on tuesday? agnes, i said i was going to start with you, and i am. is a determination we should admire or desperation we should pity? well, how to not be unrespectable to your british prime minister. i'm going to try. this pantomime has been going on for 30 months. i think the view from europe has been one of admiration for the british resilience she has shown but i think we have also come to a stage of deep exasperation and also deep concern at what is going on. we also see that the opposition, jeremy corbyn, there is nothing to admire in his stance about brexit. he is on the side — he could be king — he does not want a second referendum. he wants brexit really, he has everything to lose by it. he is not serving his country either.

what is the view of europe? it is one of sadness and exasperation but also deep concern as time goes by and the deadline comes. i want to ask isabel, the only brit around the table. we have the last—minute campaign by the prime minister, we have some of her cabinet ministers talking about a surge of far right extremism if the bill does not go through. is that a fear or a visible reminder of the least worst option? is that a fear or a sensible reminder of the least worst option? if you remember some weeks ago we had a people's march of 700,000 people and we had a brexit march of 2500. the far right does not have the numbers and i think it is disgraceful to see cabinet ministers saying we will break your windows if you do not deliver. that is the kind of message of what they are saying

and it is absolutely disgraceful, and we have a government that can not deliver its project. we are beginning to see that parliament cannot deliver this project and i think the next step, if we are thinking strategically, is going back and having another vote. there is nothing undemocratic about having another vote. shinzo abe standing with the prime minster. basically backing her bill, saying the whole world wants to see the avoidance of a no—deal brexit, from the japanese politician,

strangely speaking for the whole world. do you think he is right in the assessment that is what the world wants? there is a limited use for bringing in foreign leaders to help your cause. we saw that the time of the referendum in 2016 when barack 0bama was called on for a plead for the right outcome of the referendum — it did not happen and it was useless. the same applies to the japanese prime minister, saying his spiel on the issue. it is futile to think you can solve the conundrum at the heart of british politics by letting foreign leaders speak out. they have to solve it by their own machinations. at the moment parliament is taking control from theresa may who has minority government, and anyway and is totally dependent on the votes of the ten northern ireland deputies. i think the situation is such, to begin with we are not going to be able to carry the march deadline for brexit. it is not way to happen because there is so much unfinished business and prime minister may is not prime minister of brexit alone.

would you think will happen? an extension of article 15. in the end i think there will be brexit. we are getting to feel that britain has to get over its own sort of aversion to europe and get brexit done. the proof of brexit lies in the leaving. something has to give and britain has been at loggerheads with europe for so long. very few good words said in the past about the eu and even now there is so much vitriol poured on brussels. let's have a separation and severance of relations and see what happens. the proof of brexit lies in the leaving, and then we will see. an american view. do you agree it is not a moment for foreign leaders and yet, where is trump? how much time do we have? not a lot on that question.

i want to make another point on this which is i think the story of 2019 will be, on the one hand, we will show, and i speak as a second brit on the panel, part of the political social genius of the country is to muddle through. i think we will muddle through and the media has played its part in slightly overcooking all of this. you don't think we're back to the religious wars of the early 17th century? no, i don't. did we muddle through that when we took people's heads off? no, i think the extra miss will be marginalised and there is a great deal of sense to be found both parties in parliament, and solutions will be found at acting as we look for that solution, there are something else we need to look at. that is what is happening

in europe itself. i think a lot of europeans speak as if there is something immutable about the european union and its views on the matter and its views on these matters but actually it is in flux, in the middle of the year it might well be in great crisis. you can see the light of the dynasty politics all across europe, not least in france, germany and italy, and i think as we muddle through we may find a new, rather different europe to negotiate with than the one we have been negotiating with in the past. take us through the modelling of next week in your view. take us through the muddling of next week in your view. i should have declared you as the other brit. are you remain or a leaver? i think i am confused. he is with the majority, in that case. well, iam. i think we will do fine if brexit is enacted. i think we'll

do find it we don't. i do not think this is the moment of historic crisis that people have presented it to be. sketch out the details of muddling through. do think theresa may's bill will go through on tuesday? no. which plan will we get to? it seems to me that she will find a way even with the new three—day deadline she has to come up with a plan b, which in one way or another allows for a second or even third vote on her plan as recast as the weeks pass, but i do think we will find a way through this. it will not be a disaster in either case. i agree with his point about europe that it is not in fine fettle at the moment which leads people to think it is not the point to re—enter the european union

and that is why i think we should and that is why i think it will give succour to the trend towards brexit at all cost. it may be a different kind of brexit than we see at the moment but they will want out, i do not think they will decide to rejoin the european union in its current form. you have to let it happen, for goodness' sake. it is worth remembering that when david cameron ran through to his very ineffective renegotiation prior to the referendum that... he did not get much help. if the european union had been a little bit more helpful we probably would have had no vote for brexit. the same applies now. the european union, somewhat recast by the elections in may, the european union, somewhat recast by the elections in may, by the change, if not in leadership but the change of attitude of leadership in france and germany, presents the possibility for renegotiation some weeks

or months from now which would be a happier outcome for both. weeks and months, we may or may not have. what you think of the extension on article 50? i see no way around the extension because clearly we're not going to resolve this by march the 30th. the extension runs into other complications. there are elections in europe, britain would still be technically a member. we hold elections for the european parliament, that seems odd. there will be forces and processes that muddy it further but i think the real problem is the instruments by we might muddle through to some effect or resolve the issue is the two major political parties in the government. they're held hostage by extreme elements of their respective ideologies then the government is weak. no matter how much you postpone it i don't see these particular instruments, which had been broken for two years,

suddenly coming together in a way that we need to. just a quick question on the point on labour, you mention two political parties being extremist or held hostage. they would not acknowledge that definition but labour, we heard corbyn speaking last week. is both a moment of seizing the day or a moment of fudge? where is he going? where corbyn is going is a mystery to me. you want the general election, it is a poisoned chalice. he would have to take on this european mess. the fantasy that labour could go in and magically resolve this is choosing a magical unicorn across the horizon. this has to be resolved. 70% of his membership want to remain. he pledged to listen to his membership, it is really fascinating. agnes, are we heading for muddling on brexit? i wishjohn was true but i think

it is good to take a look at the bigger picture. 0n the last few weeks i've been reporting on italian politics, yellow vest on france and brexit and suddenly i'm getting extremely pessimistic because it looks as if we are witnessing the end ofan era. 70 years of stability, security paid for by an american, the marshall plan, and we are going... we need to step back and look at the history of europe. europe is inherently a very unstable continent. you're looking back 1000 years. it seems to me there is hungary, poland, france, italy, austria, brexit is a big part of that. we are losing our nerve. security is not a given.

europe is too small a space for too much politics. is your view that mps are having to grapple with the consciences as we speak so that when they go to vote on tuesday they should consider if they extended their view, if a solution, on the horizon, because there is a more listening europe out there? the solution must be found but i think it is really... all i see is division in europe and i cannot remember who penned that expression, narcissism of small differences. i'm quite pessamistic now. brexit isjust one of many problems that britain and europe, i do not think the should distinguish them, we are all

in this together. if the picture agnes paints but europe is right, if i was an mp that would strengthen my resolve to leave the european union and stay with brexit because in the end muddling through as britain might be the most stable country in this turmoil. looking at the timetable to remember that the negotiation of the relationship that the uk will have with europe lies ahead. there is plenty of flexibility in that and that negotiations is going to take place during the period when europe is being recast on elections. it is a moving target, indeed. we're going to leave that part of the discussion and we're giving mps plenty to think about. were going to move from narcissism of small difference to the narcissism of big differences. expect nothing and you are never disappointed. the kind of saying which passes for wisdom in some quarters and it certainly seemed to pay off for financial markets this week. after a grim 2018 in us—china relations, expectations of trade

talks in beijing were so low that even a few small crumbs were enough to comfort stock markets and the us dollar. and american trade negotiators weren't the only visitors to beijing. north korean leader kimjong un was also in town, talking to chinese president xijinping about the prospects for a second denuclearisation summit with president trump. trade and security — two huge dimensions of the us—china relationship with kim jong un as wild card. at the start of 2019, how does it all fit together? i think this is a question first for isabel as the long—time china watcher in our midst. let us talk about the trade relationship. we saw the talks into a third day, we saw the chinese making warmish boys is about conssessions, we sought president trump talk

about progress and markets left. do you share the optimism? pulled back from the brink. hanging over this is the threat that board tariffs would be opposed by trump at these talks are not reach some sort of conclusion. 0n the upside both leaders want a positive result so xi jinping's economy was already in tricky times. we are after the big industrial boom, in the middle income, queasy waters. how are we going to get to the next phase of growth? that is a long—running problem. long—running background to this particular crisis and then comes this crisis and that really doesn't help. 0n the other hand on the us side there are bits of trump's heartland that are hurting, so the farms and the markets which he seems to set great store, was greatly troubled. the fact that the least

sensible people are talking and there is something to talk about is positive and the fact that the big trade guru on the chinese side will indeed visit united states. positive momentum and avoiding the next phase of all—out war and that is very good. in the longer term i think the structural problem remains which is how do you have a free—market relationship between a conventional western capitalist economy and china, which is not a conventional capitalist economy in which all the resources of the state are brought to bear on their economic relations, industrial policy and so on. that creates a profoundly unequal playing field. the chinese will grant it was a bit more market access, they will make further noises about the late economic reforms but can only go so far without beginning to unpack a system which is only been consolidated over

the last five years. that is a party system of international economic relations, of overseas investment, all of which comes together in a package which is the chinese economy. we will deal with the fundamental asymmetry of systems in a moment but, john, first, i wanted to about trump i wanted to talk about trump and on the point that isabel is making because the farmers is one problem, he has divisions on his own administration in dealing with china. and he has a gridlock and paralysis politically in washington at the moment. how strong is he in coming in to fight with china? my perspective is formed but i been to china and the last five years. last time i was in a paddy wagon

taken from prison when i'd been wrongfully imprisoned for allegedly spying. i read a great deal about china in the ensuing years, i was unprepared for what i found. the modernisation is completely astonishing. wonderful to see, but along with it it seems to me that china is no longer the way it was when i was first in china, and we're beginning to see that in the flexiblity china is beginning to show in its trade relations with the united states. when i was in the peking central prison the trade was less than $1 billion in 1987. now the us has a trade deficit with china which is somewhere up to $400 billion.

that is a real problem and this on so many other things, just because you dislike trump and there is much to dislike, does not mean he is wrong about everything. no one is saying that but does he have the discipline, the patience and coherence to take on, which as you said,... part of the answer is will trump survive as president of the united states? that is an open question. but whoever succeeds him, whether liberal or democrat or republican, will have two deal with china. to deal with china. china is able to change, recognises that the us cannot continue with the deindustrialisation, the transfer ofjobs that that massive trade deficit represents and again, i think that china and the united states will work out these difficulties to convertible extent for the very simple these difficulties to a considerable extent for the very simple

reason that they have to. i want to get this side of the table. the point about the very asymmetry at the heart of this economic issue. germany is a huge trade with china. what is the view from berlin? when push comes to shove, we will fight with trump because we are all interested in seeing a renumeration of the chinese attitude towards trade, but is there state system speaks against this but we have to keep pushing. philosophically we will side with trump, as much as we have other complaints about him. we had big trade with china but there has been some intellectual property theft as their words, for example, in the building of our trains when germany was the number one and the chinese began to copy it and acquire the technology and intellectual property.

now they're building fast trains all over the world. the lack of the playing field talked about, i think in this case we would keep our fingers crossed that trump gets on with in the current talks, which are a bit of the warming period somewhat. we do not know whether we will get a positive but i think we will side with trump in this dispute. give us the european view on that because of course, trump has been tough on the trade relationship with europe, has been tough with china? europeans have a lot to lose in that trade war because the export a lot more to china than the us does. but there is an element of brexit in that trade war, it is the uncertainty. it is not good for anyone. for importers, exporters,

manufacturers. we can at least see from europe that both sides have interest to actually resolve or at least leave the 10% trade tariffs where they are and not another 25% hike in march. crossing fingers that this truce will go on. yes, it would good to see china ease. but it is extraordinary to watch trump and it is due to, in part, but importantly to that trade war so we cannot go on. we need to widen security. isabel, in 2017, ijust

want to bring on kimjong un, an interesting wild card in the us—china relationship. we've seen him make his fourth trip in less than a year to beijing. is turning into an obedient vassel? is xijinping going to use him as a human shield against trump? i think he is interesting because four visits to beijing but also russia. there is talk of him going to seoul. this is a young man playing his cards skilfully and he knows how to balance interests of a needy american president, china looking to see what advantage it can get out of the situation and pull in putin to say i'm not friendless. that's all we have time for this week. do join us again next week same time same place. but for now thank you for watching, and goodbye. and many other us have looked at and

skies like these through saturday. rather flat and grey. skies like these through saturday. ratherflat and grey. 0ccasional hope of some brightness on the horizon. skies were clear for southern and eastern scotland for a time. cloud sector taking in the evening and overnight with heavy rain ploughing into the north west of scotland. staying breezy overnight and evening. brief rain across eastern england. to the south of the uk, a murky story but try one into the small hours. wet, windy.

mild night, greens and yellows. mild even by the afternoon standards at this time of year. temperatures at 8-9. this time of year. temperatures at 8—9. 0vernight lows mac into sunday. sunday, weather front, cold 8—9. 0vernight lows mac into sunday. sunday, weatherfront, cold weather front sliding in. a markerfor some fresh air coming front sliding in. a markerfor some fresh aircoming in. front sliding in. a markerfor some fresh air coming in. temperatures in double figures. further north, closer to average figures but more in the way of censure. strong winds again, very gusty for scotland, 45-50 again, very gusty for scotland, 45—50 mph and showers into the north and west on the wind. far north of scotland, behind the path two in lyric. that cold air plunges

sadberge. briefly called to start the week, briefly milder again. for the week, briefly milder again. for the week, briefly milder again. for the week ahead, a more established, chilly air regime. as promised, sunshine, northerly breeze, lower temperatures than the weekend, down into single figures and the breeze enhancing that chilly feel. by tuesday, the numbers jump enhancing that chilly feel. by tuesday, the numbersjump up again. back into double figures. , thursday and friday, most of us have highs of 5-7. the and friday, most of us have highs of 5—7. the cooler weather could stay on into next weekend. this is bbc news i'm lukwesa burak. the headlines at five. prison sentences of less than 6 months in england and wales could be scrapped, under plans being considered by the ministry ofjustice. i think victims will feel that, very resentful that it's unfair, not

only do they have the trauma of what happened to them, but they also think that someone‘s got away with it. three people are killed in a suspected gas explosion at a bakery in central paris. nearly 50 others are injured. a saudi teenager, whose efforts to escape her family, gained worldwide attention, arrives in canada, where she's been offered asylum. president trump digs his heels in over his mexican border wall, as the us government shutdown enters a record—breaking 22nd day.