i'm carrie gracie. and us plans to tackle iran — a gifggsraf—mew—wgaaw pact in prospect? my guests today... steve richards, british political commentator. annalisa piras, italian writer and film maker. abdel bari atwan, who writes on arab affairs. and brian o'connell, irish writer and broadcaster. a warm welcome to you all. two—and—a—half years in the making and last week the british parliament finally got to vote on the government's eu withdrawal bill. european observers called it a shipwreck, a shambles and some other things not fit to repeat. what do our panel think? steve, you've been reporting british politics for most of your adult life. you first. this is the most extraordinary junction. everyone involved in politics in any form say this is the most extraordinary moment of their lifetime. for many reasons. one, most fundamentally, i do a one—man show about politics. i was at the edinburgh festival last

august i opened it by saying that anybody who told me that the august before we were meant to leave in march, no one knew what form brexit would take wouldn't believe them. few weeks before we're meant to be leaving and we still don't know that answer. but also the scale of the defeat in the parliament on theresa may pots deal for brexit was astonishing. a few months ago when things seemed abnormal but not as abnormal as now i assumed if she lost that vote she would have to go. she lost it by over 200 undersea is still in place. that too is astonishing and the reason she is still in place is partly there is no time to replace her. the conservative party wouldn't anyway be able to agree on who should replace her. and her own personality i think is an important factor in all of this. i don't think it crossed her mind to resign after that vote. it is almost as if the drama erupted

around her, she can somehow distance herself from and just carry on as if she is apart from this extraordinary turbulence. i could go on for the rest of the programme on why this is an extraordinary moment but there are a few examples. is there something extraordinary emerging about the character of theresa may at the heart of this? i think the most extraordinary feature looking from outside britain is to see the falling apart of one of the most admired political systems in the world. this is what is really leaving the rest of the world completely speechless, beyond their usual kind ofjoke,. the point is that the british political system is falling apart and there is a staggering absence of responsible leadership.

this is something that has been pointed out byjohn major today and there needs to be a moment in which there is someone taking at heart the national interest and taking leadership. and it doesn't seem to be there at the moment. seen from an arab perspective, is it an absence of leadership? i believe it is both, the people in the middle east are shocked and usually they characterise british governments, british people, is very, you know, you can say visionary, you can say calculating. looking for the interest of the country. and suddenly there is no charismatic leadership.

the government is not strong enough, there is no decisive decision. ok, you want to stay in the european union, 0k. you want to leave the european union? 0k. you must have a vision. two years, theresa may trying to reach a deal and suddenly in less than three days the whole deal collapsed. and she was all the time caring about the interest of her party, the interest of herself, not the interest of the people. so i believe now 0k, where is the exit? until now we cannot see the exit from this mess. what are they waiting for? a new deal? there wouldn't be a new deal. 230 mps voted against her deal. i don't think any deal which she can bring in would be acceptable. very quickly, this is the fundamental problem. two responses you have had, what are the interests of the people

in inverted commerce? what is the national interest, as you described it? no one can agree. so for example the former labour leader ed miliband asked theresa may this week please be the servant of this parliament but she said i am the servant of the people. and she has convinced herself that her duty is to deliver that 2016 referendum result. but that referendum result didn't tell anyone what form brexit should take on many people now see that as not been in the national interest. so the fundamental problem has been this act of direct democracy, which we don't usually do in britain that david cameron then because he thought it would keep his party together and that he would win. that he lost and most of the house of commons think that was the wrong

outcome is the fundamental problem and that is not easy to solve. brian, in a few words, what struck you about last week? well, it is how afraid british democratic process has become. constitutional conventions in this country are very different to a lot of other european countries where they are written constitutions. ireland for example as well. but what steve says actually goes to the nub of it, the direct democracy, the exercise of direct democracy is not something that british leaders are very well acquainted. i'm just to draw a couple of examples from ireland, the recent abortion referendum and equal marriage referendum, what they both did then was everybody knew what they were voting for, unlike the 2016 brexit referendum because in advance you had constitutional convention,

citizen forums, whatever you want to call them, there are various ways to do it but these things go on ad nauseam for most people in the country. but at least they know more or less notjust whether you tick yes or no but also the consequences of ticking that box will mean. and there were various consequences obviously. we all agree on this, britain is not used to referendums, ireland and italy and other countries are. but that is only part of the problem. that was the wrong question with the wrong preparation but now what really needs to happen is for someone to say the truth. and the truth is that there is no better deal than the deal that britain currently has. it has become obvious in the past two years. the reason why the deal has been voted down so loudly that it is a bad deal. so there needs to be

someone brave enough, a politician that says there is no better deal than what we had. i want to come back briefly to brian on this because one thing that brexiteers are saying at this point is well it will be a better deal if we get rid of the backstop. that would be worrying to the republic of ireland, brian. yes, i'm in the irish government are not going to say to the european commission, 0k, well we agreed to take the backstop out. that is not going to happen. i mean, just for the sake of clarity, the backstop is there to ensure that the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland remains open because of all the considerations that came to the fore in the good friday agreement and to prevent the return of conflict and so on. but as long as mrs may maintains her red lines, immigration, customs union and the european union, she is not going to be able to get

very far with the politics that she is trying to do at the moment. but sticking with the republic, no movement you think from dublin but even if not from dublin what about the rest? well, if example there was movement. this is the only chink of light i can possibly conceive of and it is a very, very small chink, would be that if there were some movement may be on customs union and theresa may were to go back to brussels and say ok, let's talk about customs union. well then that might then mean that you could look at the backstop, that guarantee of an open border in a slightly different light if britain and northern ireland were to remain in the customs union forever or if that became part of the future trade agreements and so on in some way, maybe that might help in changing the idea of the backstop

as a permanent guarantee. that is kicking the can down the road, we have seen this now for two years. it is obvious now that there is no solution to a hard border in northern ireland that will not imply something that is unacceptable to the hard brexiter. we have seen this overand overagain. the time for dithering is over. i think if british democracy was a mature democracy, it should now go back to the voters and say these are the options. that comes to barry point and it is not a mature democracy. let us admit that this country is in a deep crisis. we are talking about something in the past, why we reach this crisis. but nobody is trying to say how can we get out of it. there are three options, the first option for theresa may to resign because she has failed completely.

the second option is to go to the parliament, the people to go to the ballot box decide. the third option is to go for a referendum. until now, she doesn't want to resign. nobody would like to have an election and nobody wants to go to a referendum so it means the crisis will continue. but the first two of those don't solve anything actually. if theresa may went tomorrow the problem is exactly the same for whoever takes over. the general election doesn't necessarily solve anything because it could be another hung parliament and all the problems remain. now, the third way might be a route through. i think you mentionjohn major. it is possible, for example, he suggests that in effect parliament takes control of this and theresa may offers to become in effect a facilitator of parliament.

and the house of commons vote on all the options, if a majority emerges she facilitates it. if no majority emerges, paralysis accepted and you have a referendum. the problem with that is partly if she is capable of being in effect reduced to a facilitator. she is surprising, some say it is dutiful, others would say stubborn. and i think she would find it very difficult to move. at the problem with her other customs you, admittedly she says things that prove, if i could put it politely, not to be the case very quickly afterwards. but she has said since that historic defeat that she is still committed to the uk having an independent trade policy, the right to negotiate its own trade deals, which in effect rules out a customs union. if she moves on that, that clearly opens up lots of doors because that move so closer

to labour pots theoretical position which is to support customs union. but again it is a massively for her, there would be cabinet resignations and so on. let's just nailed this point about what could happen monday, she's not going to come forward with such a suggestion next week, is she? on monday she has to come forward with something. at this moment in time it is not at all clear what she will say but for sure these talks that she is having, this open—door thing with other party leaders cannot lead to a consensus because she has had in who believe in wholly different routes, in other words she has spoken to the brexit hardliners, she has spoken to the leader of the liberal democrats of the leader of the greens, who want a referendum and to stay in. now there is no way there is a consensus through all of that. so she has got a big cool to make us to what she says on monday.

and it is not clear yet what route she is going to take. the vote itself on whatever emerges through all of this is the following week, so next week will be very important. does parliament in effect sees the initiative? or does she refuse, because she could do, to let parliament do so? i mean, they're all of permutations. the interesting thing is that theresa may and facilitator do not trip off the tongue! that is why i'm very pessimistic about what is going to happen next week. so do you see next week as being a kind of breathing new life into the deal? no, i don't. it was very interesting that when john major was outlining his proposal earlier today about can we get a majority run one or other of these ideas, he used the term tribal politics and that is what we are down to here. it is a very confrontational tribal politics. so if you say something

about customs union, ok but labour won't vote for that. but we are beyond that now. look, there are 70 odd days between now and the time britain is due to leave. about half of those are parliamentary sitting days. there is agreement... that is the prerequisite for anything we have been discussing today. but we have other problems. there will be european parliamentary elections in may. the focus on finding a solution now to this deal, which is a dead parrot, is clearly dead, is wrong because you have to consider all the other things. even if this went through then there is a problem with the european parliament and there is another ten years

of unpicking this possible deal, customs union. so it doesn't end. that is where a responsible leader should say let's go to the public and be honest about what is good to happen. and yet the one option that we haven't spoken about and i want to finish on briefly. we have seen europe this past week ramping up its preparations for no deal on march the 29th. is that because they really believe now that that is a serious possibility? absolutely. let's make no mistake, eight weeks from the 29th of march, the default option is that britain will crash out of the european union with extraordinary consequences for britain and the rest of europe. there is a calculation that it is going to cost up to 1% of the european union budget. this is apocalypse. sojust very quickly, we heard borisjohnson saying

on friday overwhelmed the europeans when it gets close to the mark they will compromise. is that a bold game of bluff that the uk should now be played or is that misjudging europe? borisjohnson has been misjudging europe and a lot of other things! e not be ruled out considering el however, historians will look back on that with complete fascination if that does happen. a majority of mps, a leader, prime minister all to be opposed to no deal and for it to happen. on that extraordinary point iran. last year, president trump

abandoned his predecessor's nuclear deal with tehran and re—imposed economic sanctions. europe has been reluctant to follow suit. but the us has just begun herding its allies for a global summit on middle east security next month, set to take place in warsaw. barry, let's come to you first. i want to ask you first about trumps sanctions on iran because we haven't given those as much attention as they deserve. he says we have had a miraculous effect, we are forcing tehran to think again. just how harder those sanctions biting? we were talking about the british mess but now we are going to a global mess, which is coming very, very soon because of president trump and his position. his strategy is dividing people, to be honest. he is dividing the middle east, dividing europe, dividing

the international community. but there are two developments, very important developments, the trip to the middle east. he went there, mike pompeo, and he went to mobilise the arabs in the gulf states, egypt and jordan to establish an arab nato to confront iran. the second thing he cold for middle east peace and security conference in warsaw, poland. so he created problems on both sides because many people in the middle east, the six gulf countries, they are divided. three of them would like to join trump in his adventure against iran. the other threes are reluctant, egypt are reluctant also to do so. the other worrying point, he said we are moving now from containing iran, the containment of iran, to actually attacking iran.

so what he means is he wants europe, becausejohn bolton the security adviser, he wanted a regime change in iran. are they capable to do so? i don't know. how tough is the situation in iran right now? definitely there is a sanction against iran. so it's biting and causing economic pain? there is pain now, the currency is collapsing, the standard of living is actually very high stop food and other goods have been rocketing in price, people are not actually coping with that. do they blame the own government? they are divided. part say the government policy is responsible, why are we involved in syria?

why are we involved in iraq? why are we involved in yemen? other people say no, i think it is the americans who are putting pressure on us. what i want to say is that because president trump and his policy is not working it is causing a lot of confusion among iranians people. when he imposed a sanction, suddenly he changed his mind, he exempted eight countries from actually importing iranians oil. so the problem is now is that iranians are exporting oil...

let's get a european perspective because he is saying that the gulf allies are divided on how they respond to this trump move against iran. this conference is taking place in warsaw in eastern europe. you have to understand that iran is the biggest point of division and confrontation between europe and president trump. so after years of painstakingly putting together the iran nuclear deal, the europeans saw president ron withdrawing unilaterally and putting sanctions in place unilaterally, president trump. so what the europeans are saying basically is that we are not going to be bullied by america into putting sanctions because we don't believe they are right. they don't believe that it is a constructive way. they basely want to continue with their current carrots

and sticks policy? yes, they have put in place in an alternative payment system, the special purpose vehicle, which should be approved next monday. so the timing is a reaction to that and the europeans are saying we are going to be able to pay iran and to soft and the american sanctions with our own system. and yet a lot of european companies are already abiding, as i understand it, by american sanctions because they are worried about the possibility of damage to their business in america if they don't. absolutely, so it is not going to be easy but it is a massive confrontation. we are talking about the major european countries saying we are not going to abide by american sanctions, so there is a challenge to america in the economic world system so it is very, very significant. the warsaw summit is an attempt

to split europe and to put the eastern europeans against other countries in europe and i believe it is very illjudged attempt and is not going to bring anything positive because what is the point of having a middle east summit in warsaw without the european union and without the main, major european countries? what's the answer that question? i get the impression that the pulse would rather they have the summit somewhere else, poland would rather have the summit somewhere else. they want the americans to build a big military base on polish soil but, yes, the third birthday of the nuclear deal. it took ten years to negotiate. america has been out of it now for a year.

the whole thing is on life support, a lot of european companies have been leaving in droves, there are still a few hanging in there. but if you told by trump, you ain't going to do business with the us if you do business with iran, of course you get a go. they are trying to split up european partners and it is really the united states, israel and cloudy arabia who want to adopt, cloudy arabia. i was offered one when i had no thoughts, i haven't been following it has been so most in brexit want the utter incoherence of american foreign policy makes it so difficult to respond rationally to any initiatives. you have trump appeasing north korea but being hawkish in iran.

two, i did follow very closely the embryonic european union approach to iran. i think it happened quite soon after the war in iraq actually and it was an example of a highly effective act of diplomacy involved in the uk, having been so hawkish in iraq. and it looked as if it was having a very positive, constructive impact. see you then have the tragedy of trump but also britain pulling out of the european union at a moment when, which is very rarely powerful was powerful. i'm afraid we have to leave it. that's it from dateline london for the week. we are back same time next week, goodbye.

hello there. another cold day awaits. they for more areas and cold the mistakes were best and most of the mistakes were best and most of the week. the times also cover still when that wind picks up. the biggest risk is still at the moment accept the monday night but there will be widespread frost and hoping will see more sunshine coming week. with any see more sunshine so far today compared with yesterday and it is coming through behind our weather front in the north and beyond the west of scotland and northern ireland. but in the day, it will come through more readily in scotla nd come through more readily in scotland and northern ireland and habits and sunshine that showers for the western side of england and

wales. this weakening weather front giving his rain at lower levels and some hill snow. cold out about today be surprised to see little bit of winter ina be surprised to see little bit of winter in a city run to weather fronts today if you're out and about. clear skies tonight, fronts today if you're out and about. clearskies tonight, it fronts today if you're out and about. clear skies tonight, it will turn cold quickly across scotland and northern ireland, northern england behind our weather front. territories will get down to several degrees below freezing, even in towns and cities. we've got more cloud piling in and of our next weather front and i think that i could at least with skill to view, potentially of the lunar eclipse. this is a main player and weather story this week, this weather system. story this week, this weather syste m. h ow story this week, this weather system. how much snow it will give in to how low levels, starting off a fairly quiet but cold on monday morning. this looks much more active as the winds strengthen and bring that rain into northern ireland and scotland. during the afternoon, telling readily to snow on the hills but for the large majority, still

mostly dry and just chilly. through the evening and overnight, see there isa the evening and overnight, see there is a real risk of some snow quite far south. some wintry nurse mixed in before it clears. likely to settle on hills further north and then the showers that followed, because it is equally cold air, temperature is on tuesday, even in the sunshine, just three to five celsius, generally speaking, with lots of sleet and snow showers following. there remains a risk of further coverings of light snow and other looking a little drier, it is still pretty cold. this is bbc news.

the headlines at 12.00: theresa may will brief ministers on cross—party talks as downing street warns mps not to try and block brexit. parliament has not got the right to hijack the brexit process because parliament said to the people of this country, we make a contract with you, you will make the decision and we will honour it. labour's brexit secretary says the prime minister needs to row back on her red lines to break the deadlock. all, at this stage she really needs to do is say, "i'm not going to go "on anymore with this mantra that you back to my deal or no deal. "i'm going to have open discussion. "and i'm absolutely not going to take us out without a deal." police speak to the duke of edinburgh who was seen driving without a seat belt — two days after being involved

in a crash near sandringham.