this is business live from bbc news with maryam moshiri and victoria fritz. amazon delivers a bumper christmas, but a hangover too: with a forecast of slower sales in the current quarter. live from london, that's our top story on friday 1st february. shares in amazon slide in after—hours trading, after sending a chill through investors with a forecast of slower growth for the start of 2019. also in the programme... india announces a multi—billion dollar package to help crisis—hit farmers, ahead of prime minister narendra modi's re—election bid. european markets are open and they are looking a little bit flat. the engine of world growth — china — is slowing.

it's embroiled in a trade war with the us. brexit and recession in italy are raising questions over the outlook for europe. we'll ask our economics correspondent whether 2019 could see a perfect economic storm? talking of storms — how about this twitter storm? a 36—year—old man has taken out a full page advertisement in the wall streetjournal to complain about everything from the lack of hand sanitisers at forecourts to not enough lettuce in his burger. today we want to know — if you could, what would you complain about? send us your pet peeves — use the hashtag #bbcbizlive. anybody wondering why i was physically assaulting victoria, i wasn't, it was pinch and punch for the first of the month, a tradition in the newsroom. we start with online retail giant amazon — it has broken its own sales records yet again after the strongest holiday season in its history.

but it's predicting a slowdown in growth and that has rattled investors, who sold off the shares in after hours trading. let's show you some of the numbers — because they are staggering. amazon made revenues of over $72 billion in the three months to the end of december. that was up almost 20% on the same period last year. $3 billion of that was profit — also a record. amazon now has 100 million us subscribers to its prime service, which gives access to on demand movies and tv as well as free delivery. to put that in perspective, netflix has barely half the number of subscribers in the us — at 59 million. the company hit $1 trillion in stock market value in september. despite a sell—off since then, it's currently the world's most valuable company ahead of microsoft and apple. but amazon has warned that growth will slow in the coming months — as dave lee in san francisco explains. amazon has had a very strong

quarter. but investors are looking forward with a bit of nervousness, because the company has admitted that its growth is beginning to slow. this is happening. reasons. firstly, this will seem obvious, amazon is firstly, this will seem obvious, amazon is enormous. firstly, this will seem obvious, amazon is enormous. so, these big percentage increases in growth are becoming more and more difficult, the more valuable the company gets. second, the company is more concerned with making more profit thanit concerned with making more profit than it used to, so it is making fewer acquisitions and embarking on fewer acquisitions and embarking on fewer new ventures, which is a big source of growth. thirdly, some of the acquisitions it has made, such as whole foods, have been in areas that, by their nature, have slower growth generally. that could be dragging down the rest of amazon as well. joining us now is natalie berg from nbk retail. thanks forjoining us. now, amazon

just reported in lots of ways its best quarter ever. in lots of other ways, it is its worst quarter ever as well. the fact both of those state m e nts as well. the fact both of those statements can be true at the same time sort of speaks to the dichotomy at the heart of the company? absolutely. we saw deceleration in revenue growth, slowest growth since 2015. when you look and profitability, it is actually a really strong quarter for amazon. profitability, it is actually a really strong quarterfor amazon. i think we have to remember that amazon chooses profit ability. it is very much a choice for them. the reason why they had such a strong quarterfrom a reason why they had such a strong quarter from a profitability perspective is because they scaled back investments, retail margins we re back investments, retail margins were a little bit higher than normal, and also, it shows the higher margin businesses, aws, the cloud completing division, the cash cow of the business, and increasingly advertising are beginning to barefoot. lets talk about those areas, two of the biggest sources of expansion. —— bearing fruit. two of the most

profitable areas, do they have enoughjuice in profitable areas, do they have enough juice in a profitable areas, do they have enoughjuice in a tank profitable areas, do they have enough juice in a tank to profitable areas, do they have enoughjuice in a tank to really power the ambition ofjeff bezos? there are still a long way to go, amazon are not a retailer, they are a technology company at heart. increasingly, they are becoming a service —based company, the infrastructure. i think that is helping to buffer the lower margin retail division. that is why they are such a force. aws has gone from strength to strength. we saw 45% growth in the quarter. it really is the breadwinner of the business. they produce very cushy margins, around 20 or 30%. it is a good fallback for amazon. we have to keep our eye on advertising. this is proving to be gabe wright spot for the business. amazon has created the biggest commerce platform. half of the commerce in the us goes through the commerce in the us goes through the platform, and now brands want

visibility. it's interesting that for the first time ever in facebook‘s result they named amazon asa facebook‘s result they named amazon as a competitor. 0ne facebook‘s result they named amazon as a competitor. one thing that we wa nted as a competitor. one thing that we wanted to talk about was the business model. shareholders are starting to grumble that amazon deploys all of the capital it makes into more expansion. that is how jeff bezos and his company has got this far. can it continue to do that, using that strategy when growth is slowing? i think they have a long way to go. longer term, there are some challenges facing amazon. they are not immune to the broader challenges facing the sector. of course, they are the disruptive force behind a lot of the changes. longer term, as they become more powerful, more influential, they are going to face government scrutiny. we could see the implantation of a digital tax, like we saw introduced in france, it could become european wide. we could see an overhaul of business rates in the uk. government scrutiny on the prospect of

anti—trust is a real threat to amazon. also, as they move into more services, particularly on the consumer side, banking, health services, particularly on the consumerside, banking, health care, home security, the list goes on. i think we could see a consumer backlash and eventually people say, enough is enough, too much amazon. who knows? thank you very much. 0n that note in terms of scrutiny, an exclusive story in a the mirror, amazon has paid just £62 million in corporation tax in 20 years. that is less tha n corporation tax in 20 years. that is less than marks & spencers has paid in one year. this is after 7 billion in revenue. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. a free trade deal between the european union and japan comes into effect today. the economic partnership agreement took six years to negotiate — and creates an open trading area covering over 600 million people and almost one third of the world's total gdp. japan will scrap 94% of tariffs on eu agricultural and industrial products — and the eu will drop tariffs on 99% of japanese goods. deutsche bank returned to profit

in 2018, the first annual profit in four years, despite a greater—than—expected loss in the fourth quarter. deutsche has been trying to turn itself around under a new leadership, but has faced a string of problems including allegations of money laundering, ratings downgrades and failed stress tests. it's under growing pressure to merge with rival commerzbank. almost a third of uk companies could move operations abroad because of brexit, according to a new survey. the institute of directors says 16% already had relocation plans while a further 13% were actively considering doing so. britain is due to leave the european union on march 29th. it's budget day in india and a big day for prime minister narendra modi — who is just months away from what could be a difficult general election. devina gupta outlined

the highlights for us from delhi. it isa it is a budget filled with populism. four areas i can mark out from the budget, firstly, for small farmers, where the indian government has announced a $10 billion package, where small farmers will get about $85 per year, and that is going to benefit almost 12 million plus farmers. the second is for the middle class, where the limit has been raised. they will not be paying income tax. the third one i have noted down is the social security net, there has been an increase for daily wage labourers. the big ta keaway

daily wage labourers. the big takeaway is also the defence budget. it has been hiked, the finance minister claims to the highest point, about $112 billion this time. asi point, about $112 billion this time. as i said, this is a budget for the elections which is happening in may. the big question that the economists are feeling, if there is enough money to fund these schemes, because already india doesn't have revenue collection or tax collection, and the government market was spending more. a look at the markets, a bit ofa more. a look at the markets, a bit of a mixed picture. the nicky —— nikkei losing some of its gains was more on the market soon. and samira hussain has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. it's the first friday of a new month, which means we will be getting the latest unemployment figures. after a massive jump of 312,000 jobs added in december, economists are expecting a more modest gain of 165,000

jobs for the month. now, the unemployment rate will likely remain at 3.9%. wage growth has been of particular concern. but with the labour market tightening, we are seeing hourly wages steadily increasing. now, if hourly earnings increase by 0.3%, as predicted, well, it will mean that the average annual increase will remain at 3.2%. now, jobs numbers are not the only thing happening on friday. there are companies reporting earnings, including the drugmaker merck, health insurer cigna and honeywell. joining us is james bevan, chief investment officer at ccla investment management. how are you? really well. marvellous. let's find out what you make of the banking industry. we've had not so great results out? tsp in the uk, announcing the first full year loss after the it for ——

fiasco. and deutsche bank, it doesn't look great for them? absolutely right. 0ne doesn't look great for them? absolutely right. one can discern it is the global climate coming home to roost. a lot of people said it is perfectly 0k, central banks will put up perfectly 0k, central banks will put up interest rates, the global economy will heal, capitalisation will be ok, we will be off to the races. in practice, this is going to bea races. in practice, this is going to be a really difficult year for the global economy, the german economy is spluttering and that is one of theissues is spluttering and that is one of the issues for deutsche bank. the other issue is within the european central bank, the germany central bank, it is putting 1 trillion euros into the system, borrowed from a combination of italy, spain and france. there are negative interest rates. deutsche bank needs to lend the money to the bundesbank and is then fined for negative interest rates. so deutsche bank doesn't only face a really difficult domestic economy, but an intractable challenge from the european central

bank. you deliver such bad news with such grace and eloquence. let's talk about mining stocks, very much in focus because of that awful tragedy in brazil. but also one big mining company has seen its share price falling by 20%, what is going on? the reality is that many mining companies have written fast and loose over local communities, they have poor standards. i think they are now in the back foot, because people are saying, you know what, we don't want accidents, we don't want trouble, we don't want standards. james wilby back to talk —— james, you will be back talking about your pet gripes. as long as it doesn't include me in victoria. perish the thought! —— me and victoria.

still to come, the us—china trade war, china's economic slowdown, questions over european growth, brexit. how far could the global economy take a hit in 2019? we'll put it all in context with our economics correspondent dharshini david. broadband operator talktalk has said its full—year core income will fall short of expectations. a spokesman for talktalk said it is due to changes in how the firm reports revenue from connection fees as well as investment in its network. matthew howett is from industry analysts assembly. first of all, i have seen talktalk‘s share price, it is down about 8%. pretty disappointing. explain exactly what they mean when they talk about revenue from connection fees? yes, it does seem like the share price has slipped this morning, despite the fact that talktalk have actually added more

customers to theirfibre talktalk have actually added more customers to their fibre network in the last quarter. i think the reason for that is probably because the, the sales and marketing effort, has gone up. recruit customers to the network of stock crucially, as well, the amount of money that those customers are paying on a monthly basis has fallen. that is the key point they make. is not to be unexpected, given that talktalk is a low—cost brand, sitting at the lower end of the market. customers are typically more cost conscious and they are looking for a better saving. you gotta remember these customers are the ones that are taking they are getting a faster connection each month. for a long

time, they were struggling to define exactly what they meant for their customers. where they all about bundling everything together, including tv and operating at a premium end of the market, where you would expect somebody like bt? 0r we re would expect somebody like bt? 0r were they about focusing on the more cost conscious customer? we have seen some reorganisation in the last year, and they seem to have found the sweet spot at the lower end of the sweet spot at the lower end of the market. that said, they are still pushing to try to upgrade more customers to faster speeds. ultimately, they want to get everybody connected to the home network, which is a more expensive proposition. that is something we expected to hear more about in these results, but unfortunately they were quiet on that. 20 more on the live page, including analysis on the tsb situation. —— plenty. your‘re watching business live, our top story —

amazon has forecast lower—than—expected sales for the first three months of the year, sparking investor fears over slowing growth. it's been a big week for economic news — with everything from slowing economies in europe and china — to the latest announcement from the us federal reserve making the headlines. here to make sense of it all is dharshini david, our economics correspondent. the us and china moved closer to settling their trade dispute this week, or did they? all eyes are on that very tense relationship between the two. they have called a 90 day truce in the trade war, and that expires on the 1st of march. at that point, we could see tariffs being raised once again. has there been any signs of any progress? well, they have been meeting and i have said that they wa nt to meeting and i have said that they want to meet again. now, of course, women like us know all about the dating scene. it was a while ago. of

us. but we all know that one date and suggesting meeting up again doesn't necessarily mean you are going to live happily ever after. there is a long way to go. it depends if they keep texting you after that first date. do you think that happens? president trump seemed quite attached to his phone. they have thrown the rule book out of the window, they might have done the same with the dating rule book. they are saying, we want to talk further and we want to explore the relationship. it is all about having common goals on the same kind of beliefs, the same kind of values. these are two very different countries with very different visions for what they want. that goes to the heart of it, they have fundamentally different systems and different strategies for getting there. that is right. china's been quite explicit saying, we know what we think are the strategic industries. they have made their money out of churning out bits and bobs you pick up in the supermarket,

in various shops and put in your trolley. now they have their eye on the more sophisticated industry, becoming the high—tech giant. that is something that america is going, well, the world trading system is not set up for this. this is going to interfere with us and perhaps security issues as well. of course this has repercussions for companies around the globe, notjust the two of them. lets talk about brexit. a big week for brexit. today we have had some news from the institute of directors. talking about the number of companies making plans to leave the uk. interesting stats? this is a survey of their members, a significant portion said they might think about putting their money elsewhere. we have got to bear in mind this is a business lobby group, there to put the pressure on government and make sure members get what they want. this is everybody getting very anxious, we are due to leave the eu next month. there have

been all sorts of predictions in the past. a pinch of salt. what we know from looking at investment figures over the last couple of years is that they have been flat. businesses do not know what to do. this has all sorts of repercussions for the uk's competitiveness, employment, productivity growth. and, ultimately, profitability. very tense times indeed. a reminder of what is at stake. lets talk about what is at stake. lets talk about what is at stake. lets talk about what is going on more widely. sometimes our head is so focused on brexit it is hard to see what is going on in the wider world. we found out that italy is in recession, germany is slowing. we have been here before. at the time, the ecb had tools at their disposal. they did, that they wanted to use. now it is all about timing. the third time in a decade we have seen italy going into recession, actually shrinking overall. the italian economy is 5% smaller than it was in

2008. it is a very fragile backdrop and it is one of the uk was not counting on. it is saying to brussels, talk to us about the future. russell is a saying, there isa future. russell is a saying, there is a lot more going on elsewhere. it means that the stakes are high for all countries in europe if we talk about a no—deal scenario. it is a reminder as well it is notjust the us and china, it is europe as well. when you're talking about the big trading blocs around the world, the picture is looking pretty shaky, as we have been warning over recent weeks. have a lovely weekend. in a moment we'll take a look through the business pages but first here's aaron's latest million dollar idea. 0h, hey! it's vaseline. for nearly 150 years, people used this for cuts, for grazes, for burns, and dry skin. urgh! but where did it come from? i'll tell you, an oil rig.

in 1859, this bloke here, chemist robert chesebrough went to an oilfield in pennsylvania. he saw a substance on the drilling pipes which he noticed the rig workers were smearing on their skin injuries. it was crude oil in a jelly form. he learned how to make a refined version of it, and then travelled all around the state of new york, demonstrating it by burning himself and putting it on the burn. nowadays, a70 million tubs of this stuff is sold every year. chesebrough died at the ripe old age of 96, having even a spoonful of this stuff everyday. urgh. don't try this at home. i bet you he ate it as well, knowing aaron. let's talk about the papers, particularly the wall street journal. there is a viral advert,

someone complaining about pet gripes. we asked what you would complain about if you had a chance. the advert complains about things like the lettuce being too thin in hamburgers, not enough hand sanitiser is at petrol stations. we asked you to send tweets. 0ne says, don't shout at people, just talk, be polite, smile more, say thank you and everybody‘s day will be calmer and everybody‘s day will be calmer and less stressful. mine is people moaning about pet gripes. minus people that burp in the studio. moaning about pet gripes. minus people that burp in the studiolj don't know what my personal ones of by think this casts an interesting spotlight on how companies are computing to get more business and they are not listening to consumer feedback. people are going up blind alleys. this issue was outed in the

wall street journal article about if you fly on an aeroplane, how you now have to pay for everything. can we not go back to the days of simple pricing where what you pay is what you have to pay and there are no added extras? trust james to make it added extras? trust james to make it a higher level discussion than burps and whatever else is going on. there is nothing about personal behaviour, it is all about engagement with customers. one other story that we thought was quite interesting, the unlikely stars of the high street. tell us more? it is about museum shops that have been building foot ball shops that have been building football and sale. —— foot fall and sales. people are more interested in what might be described as experiences rather than having more

things. the subtext is that they have gone out and sourced and produced products that are individual and original. that is another big theme emerging and retail. also, museums, doing really well. that is entirely today with experience. i do love a museum shop. if you look at who were successful in the travel business, pile them up and sell them cheap players are having a much more difficult time than those that are saying, if you wa nt than those that are saying, if you want to go to the amazon rainforest and paddle your canoe, we will help you. can we go to the rainforest and paddle a canoe? purana known day one. that is an outside broadcast for business live. send us out there, you know it will work. good morning. we had a lot of snow

across southern parts of england and south wales. widely three to eight centimetres across southern england, up centimetres across southern england, up to about ten or 15 centimetres in places. today, with all of that lying snow and ice, travel disruption is likely under the snow is still falling. there is a met 0ffice amber warning and force around parts of 0xfordshire, berkshire and north hampshire, in that area and additional five centimetres of snow is expected through the rush—hour. that is going to cause additional problems. the snow is coming from this little weather front across southern areas. it will gradually weaken through today, just some flurries continuing into the afternoon across southern areas. around the coasts of kent, essex, norfolk and suffolk, mainly rain as it moves its way in. still flurries elsewhere, and we have snow

showers moving into the pennines. north—eastern parts of england as well. snow showers in the far north of scotland. elsewhere, across scotla nd of scotland. elsewhere, across scotland and northern ireland there is going to be some sunshine. widely below freezing, —15 degrees in rural parts of scotland, the coldest morning of the winter so far. temperature wise, barely above freezing in northern areas of scotland. elsewhere, three or 5 degrees. 0vernight, we continue with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow across the far south—east of eglin. snow showers coming across the pennines, northern parts of scotland. a cold night wherever you are, temperatures widely below freezing. —10 minus four degrees in major towns and cities. in the countryside, lower than that. that ta kes countryside, lower than that. that takes us the weekend. 0n countryside, lower than that. that takes us the weekend. on saturday, a ridge of high pressure establishing itself across the uk. a cold, potentially icy start to the day. largely dry and bright. we will still have that mixture of rain,

sleet and snow in the far south—east of england. for most of us, crisp winter sunshine as we go into saturday. not a bad day at all, temperatures four 7 degrees. sunday, again, pretty chilly with frost in the morning. sunshine across eastern areas. cloud moving in, outbreaks of rain, turning readily into snow across the higher ground. temperatures once again four, six or seven degrees. today, the main focuses wintry flurries across southern areas, particularly a problem this morning, causing some disruption. this is bbc news. i'm ben brown, live in wiltshire. i'm by the m4 motorway at chippenham in wiltshire, where heavy snow is still falling. snow has swept across south wales and southern england, leaving motorists stranded and causing travel disruption. more than a hundred people sought

refuge for the night at a pub on bodmin moor in cornwall after their cars got stuck on the a30. around 400 students were also stranded at callywith college in bodmin where they were forced to spend the night. we slid into the back of someone on the way back and deemed it too dangerous to travel home, so we