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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  February 2, 2019 11:30am-12:01pm GMT

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hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week, questions for the united states in venezuela and in yemen. and the british prime minister wins parliamentary backing for something?sort of. my guests today: eunice goes, the portugese writer american broadcaster michael goldfarb alex deane, who's a conservative commentator and the french algerian journalist nabila ramdani. welcome to you all. alternative arrangements, sounds innocuous enough but with less than two months to go till b—day, what alternative can the british prime ministerfind to the troubled irish backstop that gets her an eu withdrawal agreement with brussels that she can also push through her own parliament? i think that this has been real progress, because the challenge from our friends progress, because the challenge from ourfriends in progress, because the challenge from our friends in brussels, progress, because the challenge from ourfriends in brussels, from the time we voted to leave the european union over two years ago has been at not unreasonably, what do you want
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britain? and for the first time, this is our parliament sort of exposing a majority view in favour of something. which is, very significant process since the prime minister failed significant process since the prime ministerfailed the deal significant process since the prime minister failed the deal on the so—called meaningful votes which as we ta ke so—called meaningful votes which as we take all of the withdrawal agreement is negotiated with brussels, except we need that backstop brussels, except we need that ba cksto p to brussels, except we need that backstop to be changed or rearranged ina certain backstop to be changed or rearranged in a certain way that would be agreeable to the parties. that is more easily said than done. but the significant thing as rather than focusing on that stumbling block which is easy to focus on, focus on everything that has been agreed by our parliament, because these things have to go through both sets of political authorities. the european anti—british. the british parliament have just expressed approval for the withdrawal agreement in its entirety, for the expression of the backstop, that is process progress. essentially, what was agreed was agreement on unicorns, because those alternative arrangements do not exist yet and we don't know when they will exist. the reality is the
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backstop has been a pretext to stall at the whole brexit project, because the people are raising objections to the people are raising objections to the backstop, they do not want to deal with european union. they want to leave the european union without a deal. if it wouldn't be for the irish backstop, it would be something else. so you don't believe any good faith? i do not believe in any good faith? i do not believe in a good... no. it is really shocking the scenes in parliament this week we re really the scenes in parliament this week were really shocking to see. a parliament pretty much giving up on its power, and its ability to influence such an important decision that it influence such an important decision thatitis influence such an important decision that it is going to affect the lives of britons for decades to come. this is really, really serious. we are seeing britain being the victim of a political class that has abandoned any sense of responsibility towards the people that it's supposed to represent. essentially, what
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everyone is playing at as for how long can i hang onto power, for how long can i hang onto power, for how long can i play on to power to get to power and so on. and who suffers with this? are what british voters. the irish backstop is a pretext, the irish backstop is there. let's have the others have a view on that. first, you we've had two very different analysis of the week we have seen in westminster. which i do with? i have to say, at the moment, nobody really knows what those alternative arrangements are and i suspect the eu will be willing to engage in renegotiations if those alternative arrangements are fleshed out. but this can take a great deal of time and after two years of waiting, time is really in short supply and i think that hammering out renegotiating deal, in record time is highly responsible and could have grave consequences but i think it is highly significant and the whole brexit process is finally
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boiling down to the northern ireland issue. if you issues in recent history has been divisive, have been more divisive than the future of the six counties and now it has been combined with another issue that leads tojustice much combined with another issue that leads to justice much angry disagreement. and i've been to northern ireland, recently and i'm particularly disturbed to see a senior british politicians discussing its future in such a cavalier fashion. discussing its future in such a cavalierfashion. conservatives especially, the most extreme brexiteers are guilty of this, because it seems that they are prepared to accept any deal, voiced by mrs me as long as the backstop is recast. yes, yes or no on whether you think it's recast double, and that she can get something passed europe. i think the primary role of the backstop is to avoid a hard border on the islands of ireland and i think this is particularly important. i spent time in belfast
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re ce ntly important. i spent time in belfast recently and i've seen in the wall separating irish nationalist and loyalist communities, curfews are still in place and there is every possibility of hostilities resuming of ha rd possibility of hostilities resuming of hard resuming if hardboard is returned. michael, we have had two pessimists about the week we've just seenin pessimists about the week we've just seen in westminster, one relative optimised, where do you set? essentially, i know we don't remember anything anymore. part of tweet we sent out, two weeks ago, i was done in parliament on the night of the big float when theresa may got defeated. a historic defeat. more than any kind of parliamentary form of democracy, that is a ready resignation moment. she's got to go. here we are, two weeks later and everything is fine. she came into parliament, she said with the irish backstop as negotiated in the withdrawal agreement, this is the best i can do, this is the agreement
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was that he or she is two weeks later, we can reopen it. what i have learned in these last two weeks is that something that i think the europeans who are negotiating know is that in fact, in this country, the drg, the hardback sitting tail of the conservative party wags the entire dog. the entire country, not just england but scotland and northern ireland and i think the european view is, they shouldn't be wagging the rest of europe either. many of the suggestions about how to avoid the hard border were explored over the last two years, david davis had his idea, borisjohnson had his ideas about a camera on the border, you don't need to look inside. it's been gone over, is not that we have arrived at this point and suddenly said we can have some flexibility. this is a way i think of pushing...
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it isa this is a way i think of pushing... it is a european negotiation. you push things to the last minute and at 11:59pm on march 29, suddenly everything happens. it's like speed chess and i think that is what they are doing what is didn't make its a dangerous game. these things always tend to go late but i don't agree that people have forgotten the lessons of the last two years, we should have been prepping before that because we fail to prepare for one side of the binary outcome that we had. i don't think we have failed to learn lessons. nor do i think people are being cavalier about the future of our country. i'm certainly not, but the point about the cycle backstop is nobody wants it. libby actually wants to have to call it into b. all of the party say they don't want it and act. no insurance policy has an infinite period, you have to renew your policy from time to time. i imagine that one of the ways we will see the so—called backstop become acceptable to parties around the eu as it has a time deadline set on it. if i
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couldn't say, that time there could bea couldn't say, that time there could be a very long one, ten or 20 years if invoked after the transition period has been completed. so we see the irish leader go to brussels this week and that despite the kind of absolute know we have seen to renegotiating any of this, that actually, behind closed doors, he is going to come under pressure. there will be a conversation about the irish getting a deal as a whole over the line which had been not having a deal, and the europeans getting the 39 billion but on the timing point, i agree with michael, it goes late. it will go, we won't see a final situation yet, it won't be this week, next week. theresa may has promised votes around valentine's day. i imagine those votes will be basically... it's interesting to say i went down to parliament for my pod cast a couple of weeks ago for that big vote and i ran into a couple of old colleagues who covered... did
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you think 25 years ago we would be in the situation today having the same arguments? nobody could believe it. one of them said, i have no idea what is going on. reporters after two years of covering a story are commenting on a story, you sort of know what is going to happen. nobody knows what is going to happen, yet. there we are going to have to leave this one and we will come back to it next week and the week after and the week after that, probably. you will get a chance. let me want a story we don't cover often enough. venezuela should be rich but instead it is desperate, despite vast energy reserves millions of venezuelans are fleeing hyperinflation, shortages and crime. the man who presided over this crisis clings to power while a challenger calls protestors onto the streets. where is this haddad?” where is this haddad? i think it probably is dangerous, but one of the things from almost a different
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hemisphere on the side of the ocean as we don't really have a sense of what is happening on the streets there. i had reporting trip to venezuela about a decade ago and i listen to the programme made out of that and i think the critical thing that and i think the critical thing that has changed is that it was a similar kind of crisis. people were out of the streets protesting against hugo chavez but when i went, there were quite a few people that still supported chalmers. madero seems to be losing the chavez supporters. that climb up the hillsides around caracas. 3 million people have fled the country but there is also another element. there is the almost two centuries of involvement of the united states of america. notjust in latin america but in the caribbean region and... if there's going to be a real
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solution, it's going to have to come from inside venezuela itself, what's this particular administration, the trump administration has done so far doesn't make me terribly hopeful, because the person they have put on this is a guy called elliott abrams. we are going to come back to the us involvement in a moment but ijust wa nt to involvement in a moment but ijust want to focus on the inside characters, i don't think we know enough. a lot of us don't know enough. a lot of us don't know enough about them. it's an interesting dictatorship. there is an opposition. hundreds of thousands of people marched in caracas. there isa of people marched in caracas. there is a brutal police repression but it isn't a kind of totalitarian... is a brutal police repression but it isn't a kind of totalitarian. .. he tweeted over the last week he is indestructible. the president? he is destructible. he can take the easy way out, we keep seeing a picture of a russian plane on the tarmac
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outside caracas. he can be in cuba in an hour. he could be at a number of places. one sem if he is halfway decent at hisjob, of places. one sem if he is halfway decent at his job, he of places. one sem if he is halfway decent at hisjob, he has of places. one sem if he is halfway decent at his job, he has a of places. one sem if he is halfway decent at hisjob, he has a swiss bank accounts full of enough money to see him through the rest of his life. he can be got rid of. he is not chavez. who is guaido? no one knows. relatively unknown, what else? i think he has the benefit of being a fresh face of venezuelan politics, completely untainted by the past, so no association to the completely corrupt political party that used to govern venezuela before chavez and this is not an approval of the regime of travers, but he appeared and was elected and re—elected because of what was before was very far from perfect. so why do is completely untainted by the past. —— guaido. he is
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charismatic and he managed to assemble the support of almost overwhelming support of the international community, russia, china, iran and other countries are not ready to recognise him as the interim and very soon to be president. the problem for him, the risk for him now is managing at the support of the us. because, if the us decides to become very muscular and tries to organise a military intervention in venezuela, this can undermine his legitimacy in the eyes of the venezuelan people, he will be seen as a puppet of the united states and in venezuela, in the whole of american region, the united states and united states government has a terrible reputation. i think he has to navigate his line very clearly, he had an interview with al—jazeera last night where he did not rule out the possibility of a military intervention. i think he has to be very careful, because at
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the moment, he has a lot of popular backing in venezuela, a lot of international backing, he should not throw away all of that capital that easily. we are talking on what a saturday morning, venezuelan time and it is a big weekend with the protests called, with the deadlines that the eu powers have set on maduro calling new elections. what do you think would make the military chain side at this moment is? do you think, big crowds on venezuelan cities will do it? it has to be said that the absolute tragedy of venezuelan puzzlement situation as it has been trying for years. it has been trying to impose an ideology rather than pragmatically dealing with an endemic, social and economic problems. it's almost been six years since maduro has been in power taking over from his mantle, chavez. in elections that were widely viewed
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as fraudulent and he has pledged that the chavez style, socialist project were to remain in place and effectively, met a war against capitalism, rather than trying to sort out the problem in an effective manner. things have got worse ever since and now you've got constant rioting, rampant inflation, refugee crisis and extreme poverty. while the country is descending an absolute horror for the venezuelan citizens, the prospect of a looming presence of trump as mike america is not helping. america has participated in the overthrow of dozens of latin american governments, openly or covertly and there are even claims now that trump america is trying to assassinate maduro. do you think america should stay right away and not because it involved at allmake this kind of meddling often involves america appointing its own strongman and thatis appointing its own strongman and that is exacting what trump is doing with juan guaido and that is exacting what trump is doing withjuan guaido and regime change
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by america is of great concern indeed. it's easy to forget that venezuela has the greatest oil reserves in the world, by far, more than saudi america has already imposed sanctions on venezuelan state oil firm and crippled its shipments which amounts to almost all of venezuela puzzlement export. given america's legacy in its involvement in oil wars, it wouldn't be surprising if america got sucked and... people would say... i wouldn't ever focus on oil, the social crisis is what's important. america has very bad history. as one other aspect you have to remember is venezuela as very close ties to america. when i was on this trip a ago, i met a woman, solid chavez supporter, her son was in america playing baseball. there is constant
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interchange, this is the dynamic that people up here don't realise about american relations into latin america. it's like a... gets familial except that your big brother is also a belief. it makes for a very difficult dynamic. a lot gets put at the doorstep of america but it's notjust the americans gets put at the doorstep of america but it's not just the americans that have a responsibility to take a position on these questions will be its proximity and history means they may be more urged to empower, more is to do so than others. we are two and the british governmentposition recognise... has been under discussion as of late. the trouble i think for our country taking a unified position on something which could be something we could rally around and have a specific position on is that there is a very small portion of our left which are still in love with the idea of the socialist south american country which was completely accurately described, the possession of an
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ideology, running a country into the ground. it is that part of the 19705 obsessive leftism ground. it is that part of the 19705 ob5e55ive lefti5m that is now running the labour party and jeremy corbyn remains one of these people who are in love the idea of a sociali5t republic... who are in love the idea of a socialist republic... if he was here, he wouldn't say he was in love with it but obviously he has said outside interferences are unhelpful and other senior labour figures outside interferences are unhelpful and other senior labourfigures have said regime shame, remember iraq, libya which is a their points? the other points to be made along those line5 other points to be made along those lines but hi5tory other points to be made along those lines but history will look back and 5ay theresa may had an easier run over the brexit period, because labour wa5 over the brexit period, because labour was led by corbyn a5 over the brexit period, because labour was led by corbyn as that of anyone else. we're not going back to brexit. think the thing is i haven't read or been in touch with anyone who thinks that regime change is imminent. what i worry about, what i was saying earlier is that the points people, the trump administration has on theirs make me very nervous. and men who like to
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swag it around but i think there is reality and there is any appetite for any kind of military intervention i don't think, and i don't think... respecting calendars and expecting a new free and fair elections, organised very soon. i think next maduro doe5 elections, organised very soon. i think next maduro does not re5ign, what are the next steps? it has to be cautious. letting the venezuelan also try to find their own domestic solution. 20 seconds. i agree with that but what you said was why are we talking about corbyn? from my position, and our country, he is the closest we get to an apologist for that regime which explains... he is the leader of the opposition, ha5 that regime which explains... he is the leader of the opposition, has no power in this particular. we are not
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going to get... descend into a discussion at this point about uk policy on venezuela, because we actually need to move on to another country which i suppose is a cautionary tale on what can happen when outside powers line up behind competing presidents, because last year.. last year the world s worst year.. was yemen and this year it's still yemen. according to a new us intelligence assessment, the war there has lefti million people with cholera and 16 million with no reliable access to drinking water and food. the us congress is increasingly uneasy about supporting a saudi led bombing campaign which costs civilian lives. but who will do what to end yemen's misery? i'm going to let you start on this one. referring to brexit as a catastrophe is accurate, some people describe it as a catastrophe, venezuelan is of course an absolute disaster but the horror that are still going on in yemen really is
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something else. this has been highlighted in a recent documentary by your correspondent effectively some 90% of the country puzzlement population are now an urgent need of humanitarian aid. this savage war is still ongoing alongside famine and disease, at least 10,000 still ongoing alongside famine and disease, at least 10 , 000 civilians have died since the conflict started in 2015 and as you said, a million people have cholera in the country and despite all this, you have countries like britain who have been pouring arms into the area for years and they are quite content to see a coalition led by their allies, saudi arabia tearing yemen apart, trump america is also supporting this saudi led coalition, despite attem pts saudi led coalition, despite atte m pts by saudi led coalition, despite attempts by opposition senator to change american policy, but is an example of how much cynicism is involved under thousands of mines that are killing and maiming of
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children around the seaport and a major issue in britain a few years ago. i'm going to... the uk and the us should be trying to help but instead they are making things worse. we have a responsibility as a briti5h protectorate and one might argue that attempts to solve the conflict are admirable but we have learned the hard way in recent year5, learned the hard way in recent years, you generally can't bomb your way to peace. that is the way the saudis who i imagine they are trying to end this conflict and reinstate the government which was being challenged by the rebels who after all, hold the capital. that'5 challenged by the rebels who after all, hold the capital. that's how theyju5tify their all, hold the capital. that's how they justify their actions. all, hold the capital. that's how theyju5tify theiraction5. but all, hold the capital. that's how theyju5tify their actions. but my point would be, there is no real good guy, here. until hi5 overthrow, he wanted to be president for life, try to have the constitution suspended. the deputy for many years, then basically led to the
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same kind of regime that he had been in before and now, wants to break up the region come into far more autonomous arrangements so that effectively, he can control your money a great deal better. there is no good guy. you could argue, from raw politics perspective, put all your forces behind one side in that and try to finish the conflict. that's as good as it can get for defending the current actions. just one quick one on the us, it's interesting to see another move in congress to call out president trump on his support of the saudi bombing and that coalition which he could argue he has picked a side. where do you see that going? i'm not sure i see it going anywhere, because in the end, it gets completely pegged down by domestic politics. republicans in the senate, we saw this throughout the whole syria thing. yes, they want to either go
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in and be the good guys or they want to pull back and be whatever but when there is a republican president or republican dominated senate, majority will not contradict donald trump. he has a whole range of different relationships with which we don't have time to go into in terms of saudi arabia in terms of his nice things and we will see what happens there. i do think when i was listening to nobilo, there is something she said, the focus seems to be on if the uk and the us... we have seen germany has said that we are not going to sell any more weapons into that region. two days later, the leading arms exporter in germany said, hold on a second, it's business, don't go there but what i really think we need to focus on is saudi arabia and what it's playing out in dismembering this country which sitsjust on out in dismembering this country which sits just on its southern border and we haven't mentioned the runny dynamic which has been
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alleged. last words, we are running out of time. we have 20 seconds i'm afraid. this is essentially yemen is yet another proxy war. as michael said, conflict between war for domination of the middle is between saudi arabia and iran and then the outside players who are subsidising those two are the big players. in the end it is the people who are the real victims, the raw sufferers and there is no end in sight, because there is no end in sight, because the un is trying to do its best to keepa very the un is trying to do its best to keep a very fragile ceasefire but no one, no one seems to be interested in doing something to make it a reality to make sure that at the very least humanitarian aid starts to flow into the country much needed humanitarian aid. i'm afraid, we are going to have to leave it. that's all we have time for this week. do join us again next week same time same place. but for now thank you for watching, and goodbye. hello, it's been a very
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wintry start to february, in fact some central and southern parts of england have seen much more snow than we are used to, 10—15 centimetres. but there is lying snow in many parts of the uk. therefore, the ice risk remains pretty high. in fact, not just through saturday but through saturday night and into sunday morning as well. so, the snow showers through the rest of the day are most likely to continue to fall across eastern england, coming quite far inland on the breeze across east anglia, the south—east but it's mostly north—eastern parts of england. there will also be a few wintry showers across cornwall, pembrokeshire, perhaps into north wales but they are tending to ease into the afternoon across the western side of the uk and they will hopefully ease for eastern scotland, but continue for the north. the reason for that is a little ridge of high pressure coming in, so most of the snow fall will be
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through the early part of the day and then it's going to be about 4—6dc for mid afternoon which is a little higher than it has been, but given that there is some sunshine, lighter winds, not as many showers around. i don't think it will feel quite as raw as it has done recently. but, it will turn very cold overnight. the coldest night, we think, of the winter so far. starry skies for many except perhaps northern ireland. temperatures even in london and cardiff, birmingham expected to get to “4 or minus five celsius, very unusual. so, —12 potentially over the snowfields of scotland, —10 over the snowfields in the south, that is very cold indeed. but it doesn't last, because from tomorrow, we are getting this succession of low pressure systems and atlantic weather fronts coming in. so, a change. yes, it's very cold to start with and icy, clearly but then we have a bout of sleet and snow for the hills of northern ireland, scotland, northern england, so a very different day. should stay mostly dry across central and southern areas of england and wales until after dark but, clearly it is a day of change and it's not going to be particularly warm.
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we've still got all that cold air sitting on the ground, so it's going to turn quite foggy, particularly over the hills. then through the evening and night, that first weather front fizzles out ahead of our next weather system coming in. so, some snow even at lower levels, potentially with this system as we head towards monday morning. still, that frost, so, still the potential for some more snowfall, possibly destructive but again we've got those weather fronts, that milder air pushing in and that's really the theme for next week. much milder compared with this week, but with heavy rain and some windy weather too, goodbye. this is bbc news. i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12. freezing temperatures are continuing into the weekend after snow causes more travel chaos overnight. russian president vladimir putin has said that russia is withdrawing from the cold war—era intermediate—range nuclear forces treaty after a similar move by the united states. england's minister for schools says pupils should be banned from taking smartphones into school. floods in the north—east australian
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state of queensland have reached catastrophic levels. a french fumble and a welsh fightback last night — and there's more six nations action to come today. and in half an hour, click will take a look at how technology could play a role in donald trump's controversial border wall plans.
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