a very warm welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to our viewers in north america and around the globe. my name's mike embley. our top stories: the most alarming warning yet on climate change. scientists believe the world is set for the hottest years ever recorded. after sweeping gains against the so—called is militants in syria and iraq, donald trump claims total defeat is just days away. it should be formally announced some time, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate. the taliban claim to the bbc they don't want to take afghanistan by force, but won't give up their weapons until foreign troops leave. victims of venezuela's collapsing health service. we meet the patients hardest hit by the economic and political crisis. hello.

for the first time, global warming may be about to hit a tipping point, a level of temperature rise that could bring rapid and far—reaching changes for our planet, creating conditions we've never experienced before. nasa scientists have already confirmed that the warmest years on record are the past five years. now analysts from the uk's met office say there's a risk global temperatures could, temporarily, exceed 1.5 degrees celsius above pre—industrial levels. even if it happens briefly, it's likely to mean unprecedented extremes of weather — sea level rise, flooding, storms, drought, heatwaves, wildfires. our science correspondent rebecca morelle reports. from the devastating flooding that's inundating australia, forcing thousands from their homes, to the deadly forest fires that raged across the united states last year, and the record—breaking temperatures seen here and across europe over the summer, it's been a year of extremes, and now scientists warn

there could be more to come. the long—term climate projections say... at the met office, researchers have been tracking global temperatures, and their new forecast suggests we could be in the middle of the warmest decade since records began. this is worrying because this is a new level of temperature extreme, and the regional impacts of that are likely to be unprecedented in some regions. so we are likely to see things that we have not seen in over the 100 years of observational records. a temperature rise of 1.5 celsius above pre—industrial levels is set as a threshold by un scientists. anything more could lead to dangerous global impacts. have a look at this graph. the red area shows the predictions the met office has made over the years, and the black lines show the actual temperatures they recorded. there's a close match. the last four years were the hottest on record. this blue area is their forecast for the next five years.

it suggests the warming trend will continue, with a small chance temperatures could temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees. the main driver for all this is the greenhouse—gas emissions we're producing. we're still too reliant on fossil fuels like coal, and globally, levels of carbon dioxide are at a record high. we've got to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, we've got to reduce concentrations, because if we don't, we are looking at really big changes in the climate. we're going into territory that we have never been in before. we haven't experienced this, so we don't know precisely what's going to happen. all eyes will now be watching to see if this forecast plays out. scientists warn that the time to act is running out fast. rebecca morelle, bbc news. more on that to come a little later. donald trump has claimed that within days, the extremist group

the so—called islamic state, is, or isis, will collapse in the middle east. at an international conference in washington, the president said the us would keep fighting the militants, but that he expects them very soon to lose all the territory they still control. the united states military, our coalition partners, and the syrian democratic forces have liberated virtually all of the territory previously held by isis in syria and iraq. it should be formally announced some time, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate. our correspondent peter bowes is in los angeles. we know that territory matters to the so—called islamic state, they talked all the time, of course, about the caliphate. president trump made this claim is well in the state of union address. when he says that, it does seem to make his military

advisers and his allies pretty nervous, why? well, donald trump's position, his assessment of so—called islamic state has been shifting over recent weeks. remember backin shifting over recent weeks. remember back in december, when he said we have one, he said isis was essentially defeated, that prompted the immediate resignation ofjim matters, his defence secretary, and it shocked his closest advisers and coalition partners around the world. fast forward to the present day and indeed over the last week for hours, the state of the union speech, where he is taking a little more of a cautious tone, although as we have just heard, he is still predict dink essentially defeated. he says he will wait for official word, but he still says it will happen by next week. this seems to fly in the face of what his intelligence officials are telling him, indeed telling the world, telling the senate just about a week ago that they have concerns that isis is indeed in a position to

regroup, the takeover perhaps territory that they once had in syria and indeed, elsewhere. west africa is of particular concern. so what the president is predicting does seem to be still at odds with what his intelligence officials are telling him. thank you very much for that. let's get some of the day's other news. a body has been recovered from the wreckage of the plane that crashed into the english channel, with the cardiff city footballer emiliano sala and pilot david ibbotson on board. the air accidents investigation branch says it was done in as dignified a way as possible. president trump has — as expected — nominated loyalist david malpass, an outspoken critic of the world bank, to be its new chief. the senior us treasury department official served as an economic adviser during donald trump's election campaign. he has promised pro—growth reforms. the appointment does have to be approved by the world bank's executive board. former brazilian president, luiz inacio lula da silva, has been sentenced

to a further 12 years in jail on corruption charges. he's 73, he is already serving 12 years in a separate corruption case. he denies all the charges, he says they are politcally motivated. the leader of the taliban's peace negotiations with the us has told the bbc his group isn't interested in taking the country by force, but he did warn that they wouldn't agree to a ceasefire until all foreign forces were withdrawn from afghanistan. this after a second day of talks in moscow between the taliban and opposition afghan officials. from washington, we can now speak to laurel miller, who is a seniorforeign policy expert at the rand corporation. untiljune 2017, she was the acting special representative for afghanistan and pakistan at the us state department. thank you very much for your time. what do you make of this statement and the talks in general? well, i think the talks in moscow of both ——

are both good news story on the bad news story the same time. on the one hand, those talks have helped to break one of the many logjams in the afghanistan peace talks process by bringing together one group of senior afghan notables, on the other hand, this is a development that has seriously agitated the afghan government, which was excluded from the talks. and it raises some questions about where the talks will go from here. yes, it is significant, isn't it, that the afg ha n significant, isn't it, that the afghan government is not there, also the talks are happening in moscow? yes, the talks are happening in moscow, which is i think a sign that, one of a series of signs that have emerged in recent years of the russians trying to flex their muscles in the region and to show themselves to be an important player. they do have a role to play

potentially in being supportive of the peace process, it is much better to have their support for a process than their opposition, but ultimately, they are not going to be easy host of peace talks and indeed, the conclusion of these talks, the concluding statement out of the individuals who work there, indicated that a further round of format would be in doha rather than in moscow. —— who were there. format would be in doha rather than in moscow. -- who were there. of course, the taliban control or are present, openly present in a large chunk of the country. what you think their intentions are here?” chunk of the country. what you think their intentions are here? i think their intentions are here? i think their intentions are here? i think their intentions in the talks in moscow certainly add to elevate their stature and at the same time, to diminish the stature of the afg ha n to diminish the stature of the afghan government, which they reject as being illegitimate. i also think that they do see interest for

themselves in trying to reach a negotiated settlement, obviously on terms preferable to their side, as opposed to continuing to fight the conflict indefinitely, because through a negotiated settlement, if they get terms that they like, they are hoping to win continued support from the international community, financial support. they say they wa nt financial support. they say they wantan islamic financial support. they say they want an islamic government of course, that raises warning flags in various areas, particularly i know about women's rights. yes, it does, i have been doing some work at the rand corporation, i should say i am 110w rand corporation, i should say i am now the international crisis group director in the asia programme there as ofa director in the asia programme there as of a few weeks ago, when i was with the rand corporation, a undertook a project to try to develop a version of what a peace agreement for afghanistan might look like. they undertook a lot of interviews and research trying to

find out the details of what all sides, including the taliban, actually think about what a future state could look like, what is an islamic system that would satisfy them mean? i found islamic system that would satisfy them mean? ifound that islamic system that would satisfy them mean? i found that those details are still lacking. they say this in general terms they have not expressed a very clear and detailed vision of what this would mean not only for women in afghanistan, but for other afghans who have enjoyed a style of life and rights and opportunities that are quite different than during the taliban period. very interesting to talk to you, thank you very much. my pleasure. raising the temperature in what are already overheated, high—sta kes negotiations, the president of the european council has said there will be a special place in hell for those who promoted brexit without any plan to deliver it safely. donald tusk‘s remarks have drawn an outraged response from some in the uk.

by the way, i've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like for all those who promoted brexit without even a sketch of a plan for how to carry it safely. donald tusk speaking as it happened for theresa may troubled to brussels to try to win more concessions from the eu on brexit. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: trying to find answers — the father of the british teenager who took her own life calls on social media companies to give him access to his daughter's accounts. this is the moment that millions in iran had been waiting for. after his long years in exile, the first hesitant steps of ayatollah khomeini on iranian soil. south africa's white government has offered its black opponents concessions unparalleled in the history of apartheid. and the anc leader, nelson mandela, is to be set free unconditionally. four, three, two, one... a countdown to a critical moment. the world's most powerful

rocket ignited all 27 of its engines at once. and apart from its power, it's this recycling of the rocket, slashing the cost of a launch, that makes this a breakthrough in the business of space travel. two americans have become the first humans to walk in space without any lifeline to their spaceship. one of them called it a piece of cake. thousands of people have given the yachtswoman ellen macarthur a spectacular homecoming in the cornish port of falmouth, after she smashed the world record for sailing solo around the world non—stop. the latest headlines for you now from bbc news: scientists have issued the starkest warning yet on climate change. they say the world's set for the hottest decade ever recorded. let's stay with that story now.

kristina dahl is a senior climate scientist from the union of concerned scientists. she's in california. good to talk to you. of course we are in the middle of the hottest period i think on record already, but this suggest that the next five yea rs could but this suggest that the next five years could be very bad news indeed. that's right. just today noah and nasa, two agencies in the us, confirmed what european agencies have already set, which is that the past four years have been the hottest on record. each of those yea rs has hottest on record. each of those years has hovered right around one celsius above the preindustrial average. so things have been very hot, and with this latest report from the met office, it looks that we will continue that warming trend. and 1.5 degrees celsius was the lowest level at which it was hoped that humankind could avoid catastrophic climate change. the suggestion is that there is a very

good chance that will be breached now, and quite soon. we know that temperatures on a global average basis are warming at about a 10th of a degree every five to six years. so we would be looking at potentially crossing that threshold of 1.5 degrees sometime in the next 20 to 25 years. but this report from the met office suggest that we could temporarily, and there is a possibility of it, temporarily if the that threshold within the next five years. and if it is only temporary, how bad could that be? well, we know that every 10th of a degree that we experience matters. we are already living in the world or we have warmed by about one celsius above preindustrial levels. and that translates to a number of things, it is translated to hire —— higher sea levels allowing storm surge is to head further inland. it allows greater risk of wildfires and

allows greater risk of wildfires and a greater frequency of extreme heat, great intensity of extreme heat. so as we approach that 1.5 degrees c threshold we can expect to see much more of that and much more severe events. we are all wondering of course, is there anything really we can do about this? well, a recent report by the intergovermental panel on climate change, which is an international body, suggested that in order to stay below that 1.5 degrees threshold we need to drastically and quickly reduce our carbon emissions. we are looking at the next ten to 12 years as being really critical for seeing those decreases. if we don't reduce our emissions during that time period we will continue to see the damage mount. realistically, do you think we will? i think it is important that we not take our eye off the ball. we need to be working, every state, every country and internationally to make sure that

those emissions start to go down. it is discouraging that we have seen emissions increases over the last year or $0. emissions increases over the last year or so. but again we can't lose hope. we need to continue to try. kristina dahl, thank you for talking to us. thank you so much for having me. the united nations has warned venezuela's political leaders against using humanitarian aid as a pawn in the country's deepening crisis. government soldiers have been accused of blocking a bridge on the border with colombia to prevent the delivery of humanitarian aid, much of it sent by the united states. the shipment is being arranged by the opposition leader, juan guadio, who is now recognised by many western countries as venezulea's interim head of state. our international correspondent orla guerin has gained rare access to a hospital in the capital, caracas. it's not easy to get inside venezuela's ailing health system — the government tries hard to keep the cameras out. but doctors brought us into one of the main public hospitals in caracas, determined that we should see the truth. and this is the reality behind

the dream of free treatment for all. and empty promise. you get a real insight here into the state of venezuela's health service. these should be refrigerated, and it should be full of insulin. it broke down five years ago, and it's never been fixed. and just here at my feet there is a dead cockroach. the health service in this country is in a state of collapse. nearby, we found medical waste, including used needles, strewn around. this is one of the showers. sometimes there's no running water, so relatives have to bring in bottles. marea shows us where his nephew louise cooks his food — in the bathroom. luis is gravely ill with a brain tumour.

his family have already spent all their savings trying to keep him alive, but he needs more help. "i still have to rent the surgical equipment they need for my operation," he says, "and buy all the supplies, even the gauze." every day that passes, he loses a little more of his sight. the hospital can't give the sick much more than a bed. under president nicolas maduro, this is the picture of health. well, take a look atjust how bad things are here. there's mould growing all the way down the wall. we're in the internal medicine department. this is the isolation area. this patient here has lymphoma, the patient here has tb, and we've been told he's receiving absolutely no treatment. so, david can only rest and hope. his mother is grateful

he's been admitted, from another hospital turned him away because of lack of funds. "i'm feeling a little better now," he tells me, "i feel relieved." but then he admits he does have some pain. in the bed next door, 21—year—old carlos, a cancer patient and much—loved only son. his mother, diana, had just been told he needs a biopsy and she will have to pay for it. it would take nearly two years to earn the money — if she had a job. for dedicated doctors here, like carlos prosperi, anguish, frustration and anger at the government. "i blame president maduro," he says. "we doctors have to tell the truth, we have to do our best to save our patients, but nowadays we can't, we feel blocked because of

a negligent government." doctor, you been speaking very bravely, very openly — isn't there a risk that something that could happen to you now because of what you've been telling us? "anyone can be afraid," he says. "of course i am worried, but i'd prefer to live in a free country rather than live in oppression and let my patients have nothing." just outside the front door, raw meat for sale and a discarded scanning machine, now somewhere for staff to sit. doctors in venezuela say sometimes all they can do is help their patients die, not help them live. olga guerin, bbc news, caracas. desperate times and brave people in venezuela. the father of molly russell, the 14—year—old who took her own

life in 2017 after viewing images of self—harm on instagram, is calling on social media companies to give him access to his daughter's accounts. ian russell says he wants to know more about why she killed herself, but he can't access either her social media or her phone. as the law stands, all the data belongs to the tech companies, not the family. angus crawford reports. when a child dies, what happens to their online life, their messages, posts and pictures, their most personal data ? that's an agonising question for molly russell's dad, ian. there's data on her electronic devices that we can't access. it won't do any good in molly's case, but of course, we might learn lessons that might help other people. i'm sure there's something on her instagram account... the family know she had at least one account on instagram, but there may be others. she used pinterest too. a month after her death, automated e—mails were still suggesting more accounts to follow. in law, that data belongs

to the tech companies, not the family. but we now believe that the coroner is writing to instagram, pinterest, youtube and apple, demanding that they hand over anything they know about what molly did online. so why youtube? here's why. within a couple of clicks, we find videos about self—harm. many are meant to be positive, posted by people trying to help. but some of the images are graphic and disturbing. and look — the same kind of bleak cartoons we know molly liked on instagram. then there's her phone. ian wants to know what's in it, but it's locked. apple says it would help, but their encryption means it's impossible to open. if you were to look in molly's phone, there may be key evidence. the only thing that provided that last final straw must have come through her phone or her ipod touch. we need to find out what it was that drove her to make that final decision that encouraged her to take

her life at the end. it seems to me that the data on molly's phone should have become her parents' property. she died without a will. she was 1a. and everything else quite naturally returns to us as her parents, and so should her data. in germany, it's different. in 2012, a 15—year—old girl fell in front of an underground train at the station. it wasn't clear whether she had ta ken her own life. her parents wanted answers, and had to take facebook to court to get access to her account. i think it's very important that there are laws orjudgments, anything that would help families, in this case, to get hold of the data, to retrieve the data, because it's personal. it's not data which belongs to facebook or instagram or google, for instance. molly's family are left with videos,

pictures, memories. what they need are answers and for now, those remain out of reach. angus crawford, bbc news. just to say on our top story, if you want to find out more about climate change and the latest predictions about global temperatures, just go to our website bbc.com/news or download the bbc news app. for the first time, global warming may be about it a tipping point, which could bring rapid and far reaching changes the planet. that's it. thank you for watching. good morning.

to sum up today simply, we'd probably call it a day of sunshine and showers. but first thing this morning we do have a spell a very strong winds to contend with across the southern half of the uk. they will ease by the time the rush hour's over, but nonetheless some challenging conditions out there currently. the worst of the winds over i think for the south—west of england and wales by the time we get to 8am. but still a core of strong winds across the south—east, particularly the midlands and east anglia, through the morning rush—hour. those figures in the black circles indicate the gust strengths, notice they're lighter further north, but there will be some snow to contend with across parts of scotland. also, as the rain pulls away from northern england on the tail—end of this area of low pressure, there could be some snow for a time across the pennines — a couple of centimetres here. but, come the afternoon, the picture looks much clearer, the winds have become much lighter, it's pretty mild in the south, there's a lot of sunshine around, but there will be some showers packing into the far north—west. through the evening, a largely fine affair,

aside from those showers in the north—west. turns quite chilly across the north—east of scotland. elsewhere, though, as we go into the small hours of friday, the cloud piles in, accompanied by rain and again the wind starts to lift. so, most areas off to a frost—free start to friday. for the north—east of scotland, there could be some ice around, there could also be some snow, too, as this frontal system just starts to bump into that colder air. but this is friday's weather in a nutshell, this area of low pressure. tightly packed isoba rs, windy once again, particularly from the middle part of the day. and those winds could be disruptive and they will remain strong on into saturday. the rain is also going to be quite problematic in some spots as well. not so much across england and wales, where this front continues to push through, but across a good portion of scotland, where basically one area of rain moves out of the way and then the low hooks another batch in, if you like, so the totals are going to really start to add up. a mild enough day on friday, but a very windy one, with gusts of 50—60mph. the band of rain clears england and wales friday night into saturday, but the low hooks another area of heavy rain

across northern ireland, into central scotland. could be wintry for a time as well, the winds certainly still remain strong through saturday, although they will gradually start to ease off a little later in the day. some sunshine around as we get into the afternoon, a little cooler than on friday, particularly in the north as you pick up a north—westerly wind. and then all eyes to the south for sunday, because it looks like we could see a spell of heavy rain pushing into england and wales to bring the weekend to a close. next week, though, high—pressure returns, it's looking quieter once again. this is bbc news. the latest headlines: scientists are warning that global warming may be about to hit a tipping point — a level of temperature rise that could bring rapid and far—reaching changes for our planet. they say without immediate and drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the world faces unprecedented extremes of weather, including floods, drought and wildfires. president trump has claimed he expects to be able to announce within days that all of the territory once held by the so—called islamic state

extremist group in iraq and syria has been reta ken. us military and intelligence officials say is could stage a comeback, though, if the campaign against them isn't sustained. the leader of the taliban's peace negotiations with the us has told the bbc his group is not interested in taking the country by force, but he's warned they won't agree to a ceasefire until all foreign forces are withdrawn from afghanistan. it's about 2:30am.