a very warm welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to our viewers in north america and around the globe. my name's mike embley. our top stories: the most alarming warning yet on climate change. scientists say the world is on the verge of a tipping point, with hotter temperatures triggering unprecedented extremes of weather. after sweeping gains against the so—called is militants in syria and iraq, donald trump claims total defeat is just days away. it should be formally announced some time, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate. the taliban claim to the bbc they don't want to take afghanistan by force, but they won't give up their weapons until foreign troops leave. and victims of venezuela's collapsing health service. we meet the patients hardest hit by the economic and political crisis. hello.

for the first time, global warming may be about to hit a tipping point — a level of temperature rise that could bring rapid and far—reaching changes for our planet, creating conditions we have never experienced before. nasa scientists have already confirmed the warmest years on record are the past five years. now analysts from the uk's met office say there's a risk global temperatures could, temporarily, exceed 1.5 degrees celsius above pre—industrial levels. even if it happens briefly, it is likely to mean unprecedented extremes of weather — sea level rise, flooding, storms, drought, heatwaves, wildfires. our science correspondent rebecca morelle reports. from the devastating flooding that's inundating australia, forcing thousands from their homes, to the deadly forest fires that raged across the united states last year, and the record—breaking temperatures seen here and across europe over the summer, it's been a year of extremes, and now scientists warn

there could be more to come. the long—term climate projections say... at the met office, researchers have been tracking global temperatures, and their new forecast suggests we could be in the middle of the warmest decade since records began. this is worrying because this is a new level of temperature extreme, and the regional impacts of that are likely to be unprecedented in some regions. so we are likely to see things that we have not seen in over the 100 years of observational records. a temperature rise of 1.5 celsius above pre—industrial levels is set as a threshold by un scientists. anything more could lead to dangerous global impacts. have a look at this graph. the red area shows the predictions the met office has made over the years, and the black lines show the actual temperatures they recorded. there's a close match.

the last four years were the hottest on record. this blue area is their forecast for the next five years. it suggests the warming trend will continue, with a small chance temperatures could temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees. the main driver for all this is the greenhouse—gas emissions we're producing. we're still too reliant on fossil fuels like coal, and globally, levels of carbon dioxide are at a record high. we've got to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, we've got to reduce concentrations, because if we don't, we are looking at really big changes in the climate. we're going into territory that we have never been in before. we haven't experienced this, so we don't know precisely what's going to happen. all eyes will now be watching to see if this forecast plays out. scientists warn that the time to act is running out fast. rebecca morelle, bbc news. will get more on this in just a few

moments from a climate analyst, and if you want more on climate change in the latest predictions, go to the bbc news website. —— we will. or download the bbc news app. president trump has claimed that within days, the extremist group, the so—called islamic state, is, or isis, will collapse in the middle east. at an international conference in washington, the president said the us would keep fighting the militants, but that he expects them very soon to lose all the territory they still control. the united states military, our coalition partners, and the syrian democratic forces have liberated virtually all of the territory previously held by isis in syria and iraq. it should be formally announced some time, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate. our correspondent peter bowes says the president's predictions are at odds with some of the officials in his administration. and some american allies.

donald's trump's position, his attitude, his assessment regarding so—called islamic state over recent weeks has been shifting. it was back in december when he first said that the group was indeed defeated, there were reports around at the time that he wanted to pull us troops out of syria he is taking a little bit more of a cautious tone and although he is still predicting essentially defeat. this seems to fly in the face of what his intelligence officials are telling him, in detailing the world, telling him, in detailing the world, telling the senate just about a week ago that they have concerns that

isis is indeed in a position to regroup, the takeover perhaps territory that they once had in syria and indeed elsewhere, west africa is a particular concern. so what the president is predicting does seem to be still at odds with what his intelligence officials are telling him. let's get some of the day's other news for you. a body has been recovered from the wreckage of the plane that crashed into the english channel, with the cardiff city footballer emiliano sala and pilot david ibbotson on board. the air accidents investigation branch says it was done in as dignified a way as possible. president trump has — as expected — nominated loyalist david malpass, an outspoken critic of the world bank, to be its new chief. malpass is a senior us treasury department official and served as an economic adviser during donald trump's election campaign. he's promised pro—growth reforms. the appointment does have to be approved by the world bank's executive board.

former brazilian president, luiz inacio lula da silva, has been sentenced to a further 12 years in jail on corruption charges. he's 73, he's already serving 12 years in a separate corruption case. he denies all the charges, he says they are politcally motivated. —— politically motivated. the leader of the taliban's peace negotiations with the us has told the bbc his group is not interested in taking the country by force, but he did warn that they wouldn't agree to a ceasefire until all foreign forces were withdrawn from afghanistan. this after a second day of talks in moscow between the taliban and opposition afghan officials. more than four years after british combat troops left afghanistan, levels of violence in the country continue to rise. explosion there's been wave on wave of taliban attacks. tens of thousands of government troops killed, along with countless civilians. after 17 years of war, following the 9/11 attacks,

the taliban now control or contest nearly half of the country. but with afghan government forces still backed by the united states, the insurgents have been unable to capture any major city. the conflict is a bloody stalemate. we are hopeful. yes, it was good... so the taliban are talking peace with america. and the man who's been leading the negotiations told me they accept there is no military solution to the conflict. occupying the whole country, taking the whole country by power will not help, because it will not bring peace in afghanistan. we don't want to have a victory completely militarily. so we wanted to solve these things on the table, in a peaceful manner, so that after the withdrawal of the foreign forces, there should be no fighting among afghans. there should be peace forever. parts of afghanistan have changed drastically since the taliban ran the country in the 1990s, when the ultraconservative group banned girls from education,

along with music and television. some feared progress could be sacrificed in a deal. the taliban say they want a more islamic constitution, but would respect women's rights. all those rights which are according to the islamic rule, and also the afghan culture, afg hani culture, this will be granted to them. and this is their right. that is, they can go to school, they can go to universities, they can work. america is tired of its longest war, still costing billions of dollars. donald trump is promising finally to bring it to an end. the taliban sense an opportunity to become part of the political mainstream. but there are still major obstacles, not least the insurgents‘s refusal to meet the afghan government, who they dismiss as illegitimate. as one taliban official put it, peace can be harder than war. secunder kermani, bbc news.

raising the temperature in what are already overheated, high—sta kes negotiations, the president of the european council has said there will be a special place in hell for those who promoted brexit without any plan to deliver it safely. donald tusk‘s remarks have drawn an outraged response from some in the uk. by the way, i've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like for all those who promoted brexit without even a sketch of a plan for how to carry it. donald tusk there. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: we look at attempts to shake up the look of the oscars. this is the moment that millions in iran had been waiting for.

after his long years in exile, the first hesitant steps of ayatollah khomeini on iranian soil. south africa's white government has offered its black opponents concessions unparalleled in the history of apartheid. and the anc leader, nelson mandela, is to be set free unconditionally. four, three, two, one... a countdown to a critical moment. the world's most powerful rocket ignited all 27 of its engines at once. and apart from its power, it's this recycling of the rocket, slashing the cost of a launch, that makes this a breakthrough in the business of space travel. two americans have become the first humans to walk in space without any lifeline to their spaceship. one of them called it a piece of cake. thousands of people have given the yachtswoman ellen macarthur a spectacular homecoming in the cornish port of falmouth, after she smashed the world record for sailing solo around the world non—stop. this is bbc news.

the latest headlines for you: scientists have issued the starkest warning yet on climate change. they say the world is set for the hottest decade ever recorded. after sweeping gains against the so—called is militants in syria and iraq, donald trump has claimed total defeat is just days away. let's get more on our top story now. from the world resources institute, andrew light, a climate policy expert, joins us now from washington. good to talk to you. we have been told by many people that we have haps 12 years to avoid the most catastrophic effects of man—made climate change. the new figures coming from the met office in the uk and from the nasa scientist seem to be very specific about a much shorter period. what is significant about that? well, what they predict dink is that the areas are not

insignificant chants that within the next five years or so, we are going to see a year we see an increase in global average temperatures of 1.5 celsius over the preindustrial level, and that is very significant because the paris agreement on climate change says that we should try to limit increases in temperature at that level, so we may have already exceeded at least one of the initial targets on paris.|j suppose we might try and take some cover from the fact that it might be just one year that we exceed that, is there any comfort in that? some comfort in that it might be an increase, it is a projection, there is arson probability errors around this. we are not exactly sure that this. we are not exactly sure that this is going to happen, there is some uncertainty, there is a chance that it some uncertainty, there is a chance thatitis some uncertainty, there is a chance that it is going to slip back a lot, but there is a worrying sign in

terms of trying to achieve the targets of the international community are trying to achieve your. how bad could this be? could be very bad. in my country, the united states, which is released an official climate assessment, it is in the white house, this november, and if you look at that report, for example, it says in the united states that we are looking at achieving our key militant targets under powers, are looking at a future where tens of thousands of lives could be lost in the united states by the end of the century every year in the united states and to the economy, hundreds of billions of dollars every year, again and we do not do something quickly about this problem. what are the chances of doing something about the problem? the most powerful man in the world, donald trump, does not believe in climate change, he says it isa believe in climate change, he says it is a conspiracy between i think scientist in china, the man who has just taken over brazil with huge rainforests, just taken over brazil with huge ra i nforests, of just taken over brazil with huge

rainforests, of course, also says he does not believe in climate change. what are the chances? so the good news is those of the outliers, the rest of the world as one voice on this. if you look at the last two state m e nts this. if you look at the last two statements on the g20 leaders, which even brazil signed on to, it says that the paris agreement is irreversible, unassailable, it is rock solid, they are all committed to it. donald trump is an outlier at least on the policy consensus for now, what we do see is a lot of action happening around the world but it is not fast enough. a lot more needs to be done, prices around the world, efforts to increase adaptation at increasing around the world but we just need to be more urgent on this and it certainly does not help that you are seeing some scepticism on some of the margins. what is your gut feeling, what are the chances that we avoid the very worst effects? look, ithink the chances that we avoid the very worst effects? look, i think we are going to avoid the very worst effects but the question is how much pain to be experienced before we really turned to that effort in earnest on how much does it cost? is

i think that once we start seeing really, especially parts of developed countries, facing massive losses, the mendis hit to the economy because of annual extreme weather events that we are seeing on a regular basis, once we start seeing things like the wildfires we've just seen in california happen across the rest of the united states and parts of the world that normally do not see the wildfire season like that, we will turn to it in earnest andi that, we will turn to it in earnest and i do think we will avert the worst projections we can see in the future but again, it is like how much will we have between now and then and how much of it cost to make up then and how much of it cost to make up the time we have lost in the could have been doing more? specifically, what impacts you expect most immediately? we're already seeing the effects like now, we are increases again in wildfires, we are increases again in wildfires, we have seen increases in extreme main events around the world, we have seen massive crop losses because of that. again, we are

seeing an increase in intensity of lots of tropical storms and increases in the unpredictability of them, that they sort of rapidly increase and becoming stronger overtime and it is hard to know, to get people out of harm's weighed. so all this stuff is happening right now, again i do not mean tojust focus on the us on this butjust again, takea focus on the us on this butjust again, take a look lastly, you had testimony in the us senate by the head of the cia, the head of all the major intelligence agencies in the united states. —— way. they presented to the congress global threat assessment and squarely within that, they argue that climate change is one of the biggest global threats to international security right now, not in a far—off distant future because we're already climate change contribute to people having to move from different parts of the world, from people having to move from one part of the country to another part of the country because of sea level rise that is causing internal instability in countries

that already fragile, so we are seeing it right now. thank you very much. thank you. the united nations has warned venezuela's political leaders against using humanitarian aid as a pawn in the country's deepening crisis. government soldiers have been accused of blocking a bridge on the border with colombia, to prevent the delivery of humanitarian aid, much of it sent by the united states. our international correspondent orla guerin has gained rare access to a hospital in the capital, caracas. she sent us this report. it's not easy to get inside venezuela's ailing health system. the government tries hard to keep the cameras out. but doctors brought us into one of the main public hospitals in caracas, determined that we should see the truth. and this is the reality behind the dream of free treatment for all. an empty promise, staff say, because of government neglect. you get a real insight here into the state

of venezuela's health service. these should be refrigerated, and it should be full of insulin. it broke down five years ago, and it's never been fixed. and just here at my feet there's a dead cockroach. the health service in this country is in a state of collapse. nearby, we found medical waste, including used needles, strewn around. this is one of the showers. sometimes there's no running water, so relatives have to bring in bottles. marea shows us where her nephew luis cooks his food, in the bathroom. luis is gravely ill with a brain tumour. his family been keeping him alive by sending all their savings, but he needs more help. "i still have to rent the surgical equipment they need for my operation," he says, "and buy all the supplies, even the gauze."

every day that passes, he loses a little more of his sight. the hospital can't give the sick much more than a bed. under president nicolas maduro, this is the picture of health. well, take a look atjust how bad things are here. there's mould growing all the way down the wall. we're in the internal medicine department. this is the isolation area. this patient here has lymphoma, the patient here has tb, and we've been told he's receiving absolutely no treatment. so, david, who's 20, can only rest and hope. his mother is grateful he's been admitted. another hospital turned him away because of lack of funds. "i'm feeling a little better now," he tells me, "i feel relieved." but then he admits he

does have some pain. in the bed next door, 21—year—old carlos, a cancer patient and much—loved only son. his mother, diana, had just been told he needs a biopsy that she must pay for. it would take her nearly two years to earn the money, if she had a job. for dedicated doctors here, like carlos prosperi, anguish, frustration and anger at the government. "i blame president maduro," he says. "we doctors have to tell the truth, we have to do our best to save our patients, but nowadays we can't. we feel blocked because of the government." doctor, you've been speaking very bravely, very openly. isn't there a risk that something that could happen to you now because of what you've been telling us?

"anyone can be afraid," he says. "of course i am worried, but i'd prefer to live in a free country rather than live in oppression and let my patients have nothing." just outside the door, slabs of raw meat on sale. a discarded scanning machine now serves as somewhere for staff to sit. doctors in venezuela say sometimes all they can do is help their patients die, not help them live. olga guerin, bbc news, caracas. desperate times in venezuela. and in what seems like an entirely different universe, the academy awards are a few weeks away. previous oscars ceremonies have been marred by rows about diversity. so how will this year's measure up? our entertainment correspondent lizo mzimba has been investigating. the superhero film black panther was one of 2018's biggest

movies and much was made of its predominantly black cast. aside from breaking the box office, it's also done something that no other comic book film has ever managed. best picture nomination the oscars. another black led film, blachklansman, also got one. race has become a major talking point at the oscars in recent years. remember the hashtag #oscarssowhite? it started being used in 2015 and 2016, when there were no ethnic minority acting nominees for two years in a row. in response, the oscars organising body took steps to become more inclusive in its membership. at first glance, it seems that there has been a more diverse range of best picture nominees, movies like lion, hidden figures, get out and moonlight. but it impossible to know for sure if this is because of changes made in 2016. however, the oscars can be an easy target, especially if film studios aren't making enough diverse

movies to begin with. all this, of course, applies to gender as well. over the last ten years, when you look at the gender balance of films nominated for best picture, an overriding pattern emerges. movies recognised at the oscars usually feature prominent male characters. the best director category is even starker. in 90 years, only one woman has ever won, and just five in total have ever been nominated. there are now multiple initiatives to address this, to ensure awards bodies have more choice. as year after year only a tiny percentage of all films made have a female director. and while looking at representation, the media advocacy body glaad has welcomed this year's record number of lgbtq inclusive films. among the best picture nominees, five of the eight. but whether all this is down to the changing make—up of the academy,

hollywood's recognition of and need to make more inclusive films, or is simply a one—off anomaly, it's impossible to know. and this brings us to the main issue. oscar nominations still aren't representative. at least partly because of the kind of films being widely produced. a problem that can only be really overcome when studios and independents start consistently making which truly reflect the audiences who pay to see them. much more on all of the news any time on the bbc news website. and you can get in touch with me and most of the team on twitter. i'm @bbcmikeembley. thank you for watching. good morning.

to sum up today simply, we'd probably call it a day of sunshine and showers. but first thing this morning we do have a spell a very strong winds to contend with across the southern half of the uk. they will ease by the time the rush hour's over, but nonetheless some challenging conditions out there currently. the worst of the winds over i think for the south—west of england and wales by the time we get to 8am. but still a core of strong winds across the south—east, particularly the midlands and east anglia, through the morning rush—hour. those figures in the black circles indicate the gust strengths, notice they're lighter further north, but there will be some snow to contend with across parts of scotland. also, as the rain pulls away from northern england on the tail—end of this area of low pressure, there could be some snow for a time across the pennines — a couple of centimetres here. but, come the afternoon, the picture looks much clearer, the winds have become much lighter, it's pretty mild in the south, there's a lot of sunshine around, but there will be some showers packing into the far north—west. through the evening, a largely fine affair, aside from those showers in the north—west. turns quite chilly across

the north—east of scotland. elsewhere, though, as we go into the small hours of friday, the cloud piles in, accompanied by rain and again the wind starts to lift. so, most areas off to a frost—free start to friday. for the north—east of scotland, there could be some ice around, there could also be some snow, too, as this frontal system just starts to bump into that colder air. but this is friday's weather in a nutshell, this area of low pressure. tightly packed isoba rs, windy once again, particularly from the middle part of the day. and those winds could be disruptive and they will remain strong on into saturday. the rain is also going to be quite problematic in some spots as well. not so much across england and wales, where this front continues to push through, but across a good portion of scotland, where basically one area of rain moves out of the way and then the low hooks another batch in, if you like, so the totals are going to really start to add up. a mild enough day on friday, but a very windy one, with gusts of 50—60mph.

the band of rain clears england and wales friday night into saturday, but the low hooks another area of heavy rain across northern ireland, into central scotland. could be wintry for a time as well, the winds certainly still remain strong through saturday, although they will gradually start to ease off a little later in the day. some sunshine around as we get into the afternoon, a little cooler than on friday, particularly in the north as you pick up a north—westerly wind. and then all eyes to the south for sunday, because it looks like we could see a spell of heavy rain pushing into england and wales to bring the weekend to a close. next week, though, high—pressure returns. it's looking quieter once again. this is bbc news, the headlines: scientists have warned that global warming may be about to hit a tipping point, a level of temperature rise that could bring rapid and far—reaching changes for our planet. they say that, without immediate and drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the world faces unprecedented extremes of weather, including floods, drought and wildfires. president trump says he expects to be able to announce within days that all of the territory once held by the islamic state group in iraq and syria has been retaken.

us military and intelligence officials say is could stage a comeback if the campaign against them isn't sustained. the leader of the taliban's peace negotiations with the us has told the bbc his group isn't interested in taking the country by force. but he's warned that they wouldn't agree to a ceasefire until all foreign forces were withdrawn from afghanistan. now on bbc news, it's time for click.