a warm welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. my name is mike embley. our top stories: the most alarming warning yet on climate change. scientists say the world's on the verge of a tipping point, with hotter temperatures triggering unprecedented extremes of weather. after sweeping gains against the so—called is militants in syria and iraq. donald trump claims total defeat is just days away. it should be formally announced some time, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate. the taliban claim to the bbc they don't want to take afghanistan by force, but won't give up their weapons until foreign troops leave. and, victims of venezuela's collapsing health service. we meet the patients hardest hit by the economic and political crisis. for the first time, global warming may be about to hit

a tipping point, a level of temperature rise that could bring rapid and far—reaching changes for our planet, creating conditions we have never experienced before. nasa scientists have already confirmed that the warmest years on record are the past 5 years. now analysts from the uk's met office say there's a risk global temperatures could, temporarily, exceed 1.5 degrees celsius above pre—industrial levels. even if it happens briefly, it's likely to mean unprecedented extremes of weather, sea level rise, flooding, storms, drought, heatwaves, wildfires. our science correspondent rebecca morelle reports. from the devastating flooding that's inundating australia, forcing thousands from their homes, to the deadly forest fires that raged across the united states last year,

and the record—breaking temperatures seen here and across europe over the summer, it's been a year of extremes, and now scientists warn there could be more to come. the long—term climate projections say... at the met office, researchers have been tracking global temperatures, and their new forecast suggests we could be in the middle of the warmest decade since records began. this is worrying because this is a new level of temperature extreme, and the regional impacts of that are likely to be unprecedented in some regions. so we are likely to see things that we have not seen in over the 100 years of observational records. a temperature rise of 1.5 celsius above pre—industrial levels is set as a threshold by un scientists. anything more could lead to dangerous global impacts. have a look at this graph. the red area shows the predictions the met office has made over the years, and the black lines show the actual temperatures they recorded. there's a close match.

the last four years were the hottest on record. this blue area is their forecast for the next five years. it suggests the warming trend will continue, with a small chance temperatures could temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees. the main driver for all this is the greenhouse—gas emissions we're producing. we're still too reliant on fossil fuels like coal, and globally, levels of carbon dioxide are at a record high. we've got to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, we've got to reduce concentrations, because if we don't, we are looking at really big changes in the climate. we're going into territory that we have never been in before. we haven't experienced this, so we don't know precisely what's going to happen. all eyes will now be watching to see if this forecast plays out. scientists warn that the time to act is running out fast. rebecca morelle, bbc news. nasa climate scientist, gavin schmidt, joins us from new york.

you have already confirmed that the past five years by the warmest on record. what is significant from the uk met office? what they are doing is predictions setting up models with everything going on right now and are running it forward to see how the greenhouse gas forcing an perhaps some of the internal variability is going to work out. even without that complicated procedure, we can predict that the trends we have seen over the last a0 yea rs trends we have seen over the last a0 years will continue and, when we get the next el nino event, which is a phenomena in the pacific that tends

to bring warmer climate than on average, we will see high records being broken. 2016 was the warmest year, and el nino event and the next el nino will have a record set. we are in uncharted territory and we are in uncharted territory and we are pushing the system out of the zonein are pushing the system out of the zone in which all of human civilisation has existed and that means the assumptions that we are made about the stability of the climate become boruc and more problematic —— morant more. the things that we see in the future will become more surprising stop that figure talked about by the environmental panel is a level we did not want to go above if we wa nted did not want to go above if we wanted to avoid a chance of avoiding the most catastrophic man—made

catastrophe. is there a chance of that happening in the next five yea rs 7 that happening in the next five years? would not say it is a very good chance. is conceivable. our estimates suggest we will not go past the 1.5 level for another decade or so, even temporarily but it is important to know that nothing particularly special happens if you go through that point, the consequences of a long—term 1.5, three, five degrees over preindustrial are in the long—term change. it is what happens when the temperature has been there for decades the ec the changes in the sea decades the ec the changes in the sea ice. —— that you see the changes. it is not because something will go through this level for a year old mac a short period lots of

those impacts will occur. it is more ofa those impacts will occur. it is more of a long—term issue. i would not use the word tipping point for the 1.5 but the right impact and damages increasing as it gets warmer. as we go closer to two degrees and hopefully we do not get to three degrees, then the impacts will be increasing and increasingly increasing and increasingly increasing as we go through those thresholds. thank you very much indeed for talking to us. ok, thank you. if you want to find out more about climate change and the latest predictions about global temperatures, just go to our website bbc.com/news, or download the bbc news app. president trump has predicted so—called islamic state will be defeated by next week, and territory held by the group in syria and iraq could be 100% liberated. the claim is at odds

with the analysis of us military and intelligence officials who say is could stage a comeback in the absence of sustained counter—terrorism pressure. our north america correspondent peter bowes reports. once againa once again a prediction from donald trump that the islamic state is on the verge of defeat. this time he was addressing the coalition fighting is. the united states military, our coalition partners and the syrian democratic forces have liberated virtually all of the territory previously held by isis in syria and iraq. you should be formally announced some time, probably next week, that we will have 100% of the caliphate. probably next week, that we will

have 10096 of the caliphate. under a note of caution, the president said he will wait for the official word before declaring victory over the islamic group and expected to hear soon islamic group and expected to hear soon from generals in iraq. they will be informing us very soon officially that it is 100%. isis can no longer claim ownership over local governments in syria and iraq. in december, mr trump shot senior officials and coalition partners when he first said i had been defeated and that the withdrawal of us forces was imminent. —— shocked. it prompted this reaction from james mattis. us military and intelligence officials have said they remain a threat and could stage a comeback without sustained counter terrorism pressure. the us secretary of state mike pompeo assured partners that

the withdrawal of troops from syria was not the end of america's fight. it isa was not the end of america's fight. it is a tactical change, not a change in the mission. it is not change in the mission. it is not change the structure, design, authority on which the campaign has been made. it simply represents a new stage in an old fight. it is unclear what form that fight will ta ke unclear what form that fight will take in the months ahead, with a details on how the us. i swell it and is from forming a comeback. the leader of the taliban's peace negotiations with the us has told the bbc his group isn't interested in taking the country by force, but he did warn that they wouldn't agree to a ceasefire until all foreign forces were withdrawn from afghanistan. the comments came after a second day of talks in moscow between the taliban and opposition afghan officials. secunder kermani reports. more than four years after british combat troops left afghanistan,

levels of violence in the country continue to rise. there's been wave on wave of taliban attacks. tens of thousands of government troops killed, along with countless civilians. after 17 years of war, following the 9/11 attacks, the taliban now control or contest nearly half of the country. but with afghan government forces still backed by the united states, the insurgents have been unable to capture any major city. the conflict is a bloody stalemate. we are very hopeful. yes, it was good... so the taliban are talking peace with america. and the man who's been leading the negotiations told me they accept there is no military solution to the conflict. occupying the whole country, taking the whole country by power will not help, because it will not bring peace in afghanistan. we don't want to have a victory completely militarily. so we wanted to solve these

things on the table, in a peaceful manner, so that after the withdrawal of the foreign forces, there should be no fighting among afghans. there should be peace forever. parts of afghanistan have changed drastically since the taliban ran the country in the 1990s, when the ultraconservative group banned girls from education, along with music and television. some feared progress could be sacrificed in a deal. the taliban say they want a more islamic constitution, but would respect women's rights. all those rights which are according to the islamic rule, and also the afghan culture, afg hani culture, this will be granted to them. and this is their right. that is, they can go to school, they can go to universities, they can work. america is tired of its longest war, still costing billions of dollars. donald trump is promising finally to bring it to an end. the taliban sense an opportunity to become part of the political mainstream.

but there are still major obstacles, not least the insurgents's refusal to meet the afghan government, who they dismiss as illegitimate. as one taliban official put it, peace can be harder than war. secunder kermani, bbc news. raising the temperature in what are already overheated, high—sta kes negotiations, the president of the european council has said there will be a special place in hell for those who promoted brexit without any plan to deliver it safely. donald tusk‘s remarks have drawn an outraged response from some in the uk. by the way, i've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like for all those who promoted brexit without even a sketch of a plan for how to carry it. stay with us on bbc news.

still to come: trying to find answers — the father of the british teenager who took her own life calls on social media companies to give him access to his daugther‘s accounts. this is the moment that millions in iran had been waiting for. after his long years in exile, the first hesitant steps of ayatollah khomeini on iranian soil. south africa's white government has offered its black opponents concessions unparalleled in the history of apartheid. and the anc leader, nelson mandela, is to be set free unconditionally. four, three, two, one... a countdown to a critical moment. the world's most powerful rocket ignited all 27 of its engines at once. and apart from its power, it's this recycling of the rocket, slashing the cost of a launch, that makes this a breakthrough in the business of space travel. two americans have become the first humans to walk in space without any lifeline

to their spaceship. one of them called it a piece of cake. thousands of people have given the yachtswoman ellen macarthur a spectacular homecoming in the cornish port of falmouth, after she smashed the world record for sailing solo around the world non—stop. this is bbc world news. the latest headlines: scientists have issued the starkest warning yet on climate change — they say the world's set for the hottest decade ever recorded. the director of the queen biopic bohemian rhapsody, bryan singer, has had his name suspended from the film's nomination for a bafta award following allegations he abused underaged boys. he's denied the claims and described them as a homophobic slur. kim gittleson has more. this is supposed to be a victory lap

for the actor whose turn as freddie mercury in the movie bohemian rhapsody has earned him a series of nominations for some of the film ‘s biggest awards. but his success as channelling the front man of the band queen is in danger of being overshadowed by allegations published by the atlantic magazine that the movie ‘s director ram sena had pitched —— abused underaged boys. now the awards committee had suspended his name from the him in rhapsody ‘s nomination for outstanding british on. —— british film. ina outstanding british on. —— british film. in a statement, bafta considers the behaviour completely unacceptable and incompatible with its values. the singer had been fired from the production three weeks before filming ended but was still credited with directing the

movie. he hasn't commented on the suspension in response to the allegations made against him, he told the bbc that the story was a homophobic smear. he claims from bogus lawsuits filed by individuals willing to buy for money or attention. bohemian rhapsody has also been removed from consideration foran also been removed from consideration for an award from the lg ichi rights group. there are concerns that the chalet hut behind the scenes could hinder the film ‘s success under pressure. the united nations has warned venezuela's political leaders against using humanitarian aid as a pawn in the country's deepening crisis. government soldiers have been accused of blocking a bridge on the border with colombia, to prevent the delivery of humanitarian aid — much of it sent by the united states. our international correspondent, orla guerin, has gained rare access to a hospital in the capital, caracas. it's not easy to get inside venezuela's ailing health system.

the government tries hard to keep the cameras out. but doctors brought us into one of the main public hospitals in caracas, determined that we should see the truth. and this is the reality behind the dream of free treatment for all. an empty promise, staff say, because of government neglect. you get a real insight here into the state of venezuela's health service. these should be refrigerated, and it should be full of insulin. it broke down five years ago, and it's never been fixed. and just here at my feet there's a dead cockroach. the health service in this country is in a state of collapse. nearby, we found medical waste, including used needles, strewn around. this is one of the showers.

sometimes there's no running water, so relatives have to bring in bottles. marea shows us where her nephew luis cooks his food, in the bathroom. luis is gravely ill with a brain tumour. his family been keeping him alive by spending all their savings, but he needs more help. "i still have to rent the surgical equipment they need for my operation," he says, "and buy all the supplies, even the gauze." every day that passes, he loses a little more of his sight. the hospital can't give the sick much more than a bed. under president nicolas maduro, this is the picture of health. well, take a look atjust how bad things are here. there's mould growing all the way down the wall. we're in the internal

medicine department. this is the isolation area. this patient here has lymphoma, the patient here has tb, and we've been told he's receiving absolutely no treatment. so, david, who's 20, can only rest and hope. his mother is grateful he's been admitted. another hospital turned him away because of lack of funds. "i'm feeling a little better now," he tells me, "i feel relieved." but then he admits he does have some pain. in the bed next door, 21—year—old carlos, a cancer patient and much—loved only son. his mother, diana, had just been told he needs a biopsy that she must pay for. it would take her nearly two years to earn the money,

if she had a job. for dedicated doctors here, like carlos prosperi, anguish, frustration and anger at the government. "i blame president maduro," he says. "we doctors have to tell the truth, we have to do our best to save our patients, but nowadays we can't. we feel blocked because of the government." doctor, you've been speaking very bravely, very openly. isn't there a risk that something that could happen to you now because of what you've been telling us? "anyone can be afraid," he says. "of course i am worried, but i'd prefer to live in a free country rather than live in oppression and let my patients have nothing." just outside the door, slabs of raw meat on sale. a discarded scanning machine now serves as somewhere for staff to sit. doctors in venezuela say sometimes all they can do

is help their patients die, not help them live. olga guerin, bbc news, caracas. the father of molly russell, the 1a—year—old who took her own life in 2017 after viewing images of self—harm on instagram, is calling on social media companies to give him access to his daughter's accounts. ian russell says he wants to know more about why she killed herself, but he can't access either her social media or her phone. as the law stands, all the data belongs to the tech companies, not the family. angus crawford reports. when a child dies, what happens to their online life, their messages, posts and pictures, their most personal data 7 that's an agonising question for molly russell's dad, ian. there's data on her electronic devices that we can't access. it won't do any good in molly's case, but of course, we might learn lessons that

might help other people. i'm sure there's something on her instagram account... the family know she had at least one account on instagram, but there may be others. she used pinterest too. a month after her death, automated emails were still suggesting more accounts to follow. in law, that data belongs to the tech companies, not the family. but we now believe that the coroner is writing to instagram, pinterest, youtube and apple, demanding that they hand over anything they know about what molly did online. so why youtube? here's why. within a couple of clicks, we find videos about self—harm. many are meant to be positive, posted by people trying to help. but some of the images are graphic and disturbing. and look — the same kind of bleak cartoons we know molly liked on instagram.

then there's her phone. ian wants to know what's in it, but it's locked. apple says it would help, but their encryption means it's impossible to open. if you were to look in molly's phone, there may be key evidence. the only thing that provided that last final straw must have come through her phone or her ipod touch. we need to find out what it was that drove her to make that final decision that encouraged her to take her life at the end. it seems to me that the data on molly's phone should have become her parents' property. she died without a will. she was 1a. and everything else quite naturally returns to us as her parents, and so should her data. in germany, it's different. in 2012, a 15—year—old girl fell in front of an underground train at the station. it wasn't clear whether she had taken her own life.

her parents wanted answers and had to take facebook to court to get access to her account. i think it's very important that there are laws orjudgements, anything that would help families, in this case, to get hold of the data, to retrieve the data, because it's personal. it's not data which belongs to facebook or instagram or google, for instance. molly's family are left with videos, pictures, memories. what they need are answers, and for now, those remain out of reach. angus crawford, bbc news. and you can get in touch with me and most of the team on twitter. i'm @bbcmikeembley. good morning.

to sum up today simply, we'd probably call it a day of sunshine and showers. but first thing this morning we do have a spell a very strong winds to contend with across the southern half of the uk. they will ease by the time the rush hour's over, but nonetheless some challenging conditions out there currently. the worst of the winds over i think for the south—west of england and wales by the time we get to 8am. but still a core of strong winds across the south—east, particularly the midlands and east anglia, through the morning rush—hour. those figures in the black circles indicate the gust strengths, notice they're lighter further north, but there will be some snow to contend with across parts of scotland. also, as the rain pulls away from northern england on the tail—end of this area of low pressure, there could be some snow for a time across the pennines — a couple of centimetres here. but, come the afternoon, the picture looks much clearer, the winds have become much lighter, it's pretty mild in the south, there's a lot of sunshine around, but there will be some showers packing into the far north—west. through the evening,

a largely fine affair, aside from those showers in the north—west. turns quite chilly across the north—east of scotland. elsewhere, though, as we go into the small hours of friday, the cloud piles in, accompanied by rain and again the wind starts to lift. so, most areas off to a frost—free start to friday. for the north—east of scotland, there could be some ice around, there could also be some snow, too, as this frontal system just starts to bump into that colder air. but this is friday's weather in a nutshell, this area of low pressure. tightly packed isoba rs, windy once again, particularly from the middle part of the day. and those winds could be disruptive and they will remain strong on into saturday. the rain is also going to be quite problematic in some spots as well. not so much across england and wales, where this front continues to push through, but across a good portion of scotland, where basically one area of rain moves out of the way and then the low hooks another batch in, if you like, so the totals are going to really start to add up. a mild enough day on friday, but a very windy one, with gusts of 50—60mph. the band of rain clears england and wales friday night

into saturday, but the low hooks another area of heavy rain across northern ireland, into central scotland. could be wintry for a time as well, the winds certainly still remain strong through saturday, although they will gradually start to ease off a little later in the day. some sunshine around as we get into the afternoon, a little cooler than on friday, particularly in the north as we pick up a north—westerly wind. and then all eyes to the south for sunday, because it looks like we could see a spell of heavy rain pushing into england and wales to bring the weekend to a close. next week, though, high—pressure returns. it's looking quieter once again. this is bbc news, the headlines: scientists have warned that global warming may be about to hit a tipping point, a level of temperature rise that could bring rapid and far—reaching changes for our planet. they say that without immediate and drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the world faces unprecedented extremes of weather, including floods, drought and wildfires. president trump says he expects to be able to announce within days

that all of the territory once held by the islamic state group in iraq and syria has been retaken. us military and intelligence officials say is could stage a comeback if the campaign against them isn't sustained. the leader of the taliban's peace negotiations with the us has told the bbc his group isn't interested in taking the country by force. but he's warned that they wouldn't agree to a ceasefire until all foreign forces were withdrawn from afghanistan. and now here on bbc news, it's time for hardtalk.