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tv   HAR Dtalk  BBC News  February 8, 2019 4:30am-5:01am GMT

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all graphic images of self—harm. the decision follows the prominent case of 14—year—old molly russell who took her own life in 2017. her father said images she viewed on the platform were partly responsible for her death. the president of the european council, donald tusk, has said there has been no breakthrough on the impasse over brexit following meetings with theresa may. the prime minister spent thursday in brussels attempting to get legally binding changes to her withdrawal agreement in an attempt to get it through parliament. amazon founderjeff bezos has accused american media incorporated, owner of controversial celebrity magazine the national enquirer, of extortion and blackmail. the billionaire posted a message online showing what he said were e—mailed threats from the publisher's legal team to publish intimate photographs of him. it is just after half past four in the morning. you are up—to—date on the headlines. now on bbc news — hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk,
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i'm sarah montague. in a matter of weeks, britain will leave the eu, and yet what happens then is still not agreed. the sticking point in negotiations is the irish border. how can the uk be outside the european union and yet there be no change to the border between northern ireland and the republic? but the good friday agreement of 20 years ago brought peace to ireland, in large part, because it made the border invisible. my guest today, bertie ahern, was irish prime minister at the time of the good friday agreement and was one of its signatories. does he really think peace is threatened now? bertie ahern, welcome to hardtalk.
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how great, do you think, is the threat to peace from brexit? well, i've continually said over the last three years that i hope that there's never any return to violence again and that we never go back to the bad old days, but i think we have to be aware that the idea of an infrastructural border again, going back to customs posts, going back to police or army on the border, would really heighten fears and tensions. the border has been controversial for — since the 1920s. the ira campaign of 1956 to 62 was just a border campaign, it was centred around the border, and of course, the more recent troubles, more recent in terms of that it was 1968,
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69 onto the 1998 agreement, that was in large part on the border too. and we know that there's grave tensions at the moment around the border, so i still want to believe that we would not return to violence, but i think the tensions, the animosity, the emnity, you know, the bitterness, the hatred, that bringing back any kind of an infrastructure border, can not be ignored. but neither side, no—one in these negotiations wants there to be any police or army, as you're talking about, on the border, and most people are saying they don't really want customs checks either, at least not at — on the border itself. well, i agree with that, sarah, and the difficulty is, and, you know, it's a pity that 587 pages of the withdrawal agreement is coming down to talking about one issue. i don't for a moment think that it's the only issue but people are saying that the backstop is really the only issue, and that's what the vote in westminster was indicating as well. the backstop is merely
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a safety net to avoid, in the event of there being no trading between the eu and the uk, that there can't be a hard border. and i suppose also, that there can be no tariffs, there can be no customs, that there be no rules of origins, or no customs procedures that could create a hard border or create terms between the eu and uk that would create difficulties on the border, and the.... but can i ask you though, before we — i mean we'll get into the, sort of the various details of what's going on and the options, but how is it that you could see — let's assume there are police or army on the border = how could violence re—emerge? what are the provocative things, or the things that could be seen as provocative, that
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would allow it to happen? i think the old way was that there were customs checks, before it really got violent, and continually, any kind of physical infrastructure on the border was always a source of attack. it was always a source of identifying a division on the island of ireland. and of course, then we had, later on, we had the huge watchtowers, the security watchtowers that were seen as essential by the british army, then you had the police barracks, and all these of things were removed. part of the agreement that i did with tony blair was, it wasn't actually part of the good friday agreement, but in the subsequent discussions that went from 1998 to 2007, they're all removed. so now when you hit the border, there is nothing, it is an invisible line. people know where it is, the local people know where it is, but there is nothing to indicate that we can't drive from dublin
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to belfast, and we can drive to derry, we can drive all over the place and there's no infrastructure. pascal lamy, who is the expert i suppose on trade issues — head of the wto, once european commissioner on trade — he indicates that it is impossible in the event of the uk and eu deal, that you have to have a physical border if there is no agreement on the withdrawal terms, and i think he's a person who, you know, is eminently placed to be able to indicate some of this... there are others, though, who say there are other ways of doing the checks, and we know that both the british government and the irish government have said they do not want to put back any form of physical checks. are you suggesting that even if there were a camera on a road, bya road, that that could see a re—emergence of violence? yeah, well, ithink, you know, rather than think of violence as we did in the past, sarah, i think you could take it that if there was any kind of physical customs checks put along the border, that you wouldn't have to be waiting for paramilitary groups to remove them, the local people in the border area just wouldn't allow it,
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and you know where that leads, then security people are dragged into it. the view of people in the island of ireland, most people, i think everybody in the island of ireland, i think of all traditions they do not want to see any kind of a physical infrastructure imposed, and this is the difficulty. nobody wants it, you don't want it, the british government don't want it, the irish government don't want it, i think that none of the political parties want it, but the very essence of having a trade agreement, where you have to have checks and balances, where you have to look at the rules of irish entry, where you have to look at customs procedures, where you have to have tariffs, then you're almost forced to put
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the border somewhere and, you know, i... indeed, so then you're left with the question — how can the uk ever leave the eu? well, you know, i honestly believe and i hope that in the days to come that there can be an agreement found around some of these issues. i don't honestly believe that it's not possible to find an understanding in negotiations. i spent 20 years of my life involved in all kinds of negotiations, from budget arrangements to eu treaty changes, to the enlargement process that i did during the irish presidency, you know, really enormous issues, and it really is not clear to me why we can't try and find a solution to this. it has beaten every to date, but i still think it's necessary. indeed, and that's partly because of the point you were just making, that any form of trade agreement would necessitate increased checks, and that, as you suggest, is a problem. now, any checks are going to be needed.
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the free trade agreement, it perhaps suggests why there is such a problem with the backstop, because nobody could see how you could ever leave it, how you could ever leave a customs union between the uk and the eu. yeah, well, i, i... i very much understand the british government's point that if you have an arrangement of the backstop, that you can never get out of it, but the way out of it is that in the future relationship, that an alternative is found. and i think that's the challenge. i mean, i think for people who are looking at this day in and day out, and i know that in brussels and in london and dublin, they're doing this, there must be a way in the future relationship and because we — remember, there will no backstop necessary if there's a trade deal, a satisfactory trade deal worked out between the eu and the uk.
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my honest belief is that because the trade is so important to both eu countries and to the the uk, that in the future relationship, they will work out a trade deal. i mean, it is, it is really nonsensical to believe that over the next few years — i know these things can drag on, i accept that point — but it must be possible for the interests of the european union and the uk in the future relationship to find a better relationship. ok, but can ijust establish, can you see a way that the uk can leave a customs union with the eu? well, look, i mean, to my personal point of view, i would rather see the uk stay in the customs union. yes, i'm just wondering if it's possible, because free—trade agreements rely on some form of checks? they do, but if there's a no deal — let's not... there's two parts in this. if they leave the eu with a no deal,
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you straightaway apply to wto rules, and i go back to what pascal lamy said on this, and i think everybody else has too, that if wto rules applied, then you have to have a hard border. that seems clear and i don't think people are disagreeing with that. i've sat through many sessions on brexit in universities and elsewhere, with various experts, and it seems very clear that if you go to wto rules, that you have a hard border. then, leave that one aside, if there is an eu uk trade deal, then it is imperative that you have to find a new, a different relationship than the bsckstop. and that is, that is the challenge. but i find it, listen, i've seen compromises in all kinds of things, including the compromises in the good friday agreement, and i know the withdrawal agreement has already compromisess, but it does not see in beyond the width of men and women to be able to find a solution in the future relationship that will prevent the backstop staying forever. it's one of the reasons that the dup leader, arlene foster, the former
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irish first minister, said "through the intransigence of the european union and the republic of ireland in their attitude, they're actually more likely to bring about the very thing that they want to avoid." ie, they're not compromising and therefore a no deal is more likely. do you agree with her? well, you know, the clock is running down and we're rolling down the hill. you know, there's only six or seven weeks now to the end of march. i still think that there is — i may be wrong in this, but i still think there's a large majority of people in the house of commons that do not want a no deal. there are various options to look at then, do they push the article 50 out further? and do some — is there a coalition
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of people from both labour and from the tories? but i certainly, let me be very clear about arlene foster's point, i get on very well with arlene foster, as i do with most unionists and loyalists, there is nobody i know in the republic of ireland, or northern ireland for that matter, that wants a no deal brexit. it is not in our interest, it is not in anybody‘s interest, it's not in the uk's interests, but it would cause enormous economic difficulties and problems in the island of ireland, so we do not want to no deal, we want to try and find a fair compromise. the withdrawal agreement, remember, was negotiated over a 21 month period, and it's full of compromises. can i ask you, should the irish government avoid a no deal all cost is? yes, i think they should. i think they — and i'm sure that the meeting that's coming up between the taoiseach and the british prime minister will be looking at that. it is — to try and find a compromise is far better than a no deal brexit, but unfortunately, that compromise
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can't be unravelling the withdrawal agreement because that is already full of compromises, so you know, normally in negotiations you're coming to the end line and you're well, let's find a compromise. in this case, the end line was reached last november. the withdrawal agreement, with all its compromises, was concluded and what the british government are asking now, that it be... but the reason that the british government are asking is because parliament has voted, a majority of the british parliament have voted to replace the backstop in the withdrawal agreement. well, i... so she has no choice. no, i accept that and i accept that the situation changed on that front, but therefore you have to look at some arrangements that doesn't undo the withdrawal agreement. i mean, both the parties
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to the withdrawal agreement are the uk and the eu. the eu say they are not going to open it up again, the uk are saying they need some alternative arrangements. therefore, you have to — remember a year ago, sarah, people said you can't put anything about the future relationships into a withdrawal agreement, now there's a political declaration in the withdrawal agreement, so things can alter and change, and i honestly... is the simple solution to add a time limit to the backstop? no, i don't think the time limit is the way to go. if you put a time limit into it, you are saying that on some future days, say the end of ‘21 or ‘22, you are going to have a border so that is only kicking the can down the road, to use that terrible phrase, and that is the wrong thing to do. you know about negotiations, you know about the importance
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of deadlines. and the former brexit secretary david davis has made the point, there is no case for an article 50 extension, which is what you have just suggested should possibly happen. he says the eu has a history of making deals at the 11th hour and that is exaclty what happened with the good friday agreement. is the prime minister, is prime minister theresa may making the right point when she is not considering any other option because she wants concentrate minds to get something done in the next few weeks? i think she is, because 587 pages of a 20—months negotiation is an enormous amount of work, and there is a lot of good things in the withdrawal agreement, a lot of positive things in it and i think to move down to suspend on article 50, to the end of the year, only drags it out. having a general election is not a possibility. having another vote doesn't
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seem a possibility. so i think the focusing of the minds over this period is to look at what can be done, not changing the withdrawal agreement but maybe in the future relationship something that is legally binding which is what i think the house of commons is saying, to see if there is a way of doing that. just to be clear, no extension, you would say no extension or delay to brexit? not yet anyway. i think the delay might be necessary because it is not possible to get the measures through. putting it down to the end of the year doesn't really get you anywhere. now, you, of course, you talk about the deal that you struck with tony blair. and you'll know the importance of personalities, the relationship
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between people who are in negotiations. we had the situation where donald tusk, the president of the eu council, who talked about a special place in hell for the people who promoted brexit without a sketch of a plan to carry it out safely. that criticism has gone down very badly in the uk. was he mistaken to say it? well, rather than commenting on one issue, i think in recent weeks, particularly the christmas and new year period, the rhetoric on both sides is getting stronger and stronger, and that's never helpful in negotiations and one of the problems that i think, sarah, and i've been involved in negotiations of european agreements but also the good friday agreement and lots of other things with unions and employers, all of this in the full gleam of the media makes it very difficult and it seems to me with time
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narrowing down, key people on all sides need to sit down together and to try and knock heads and do it out of the everyday globe, that every time there is a meeting for 50 minutes, there seems to be a 50—minute press conference, and that is recipe for people making inflammatory statements on both sides, and both in the european parliament and the eu commission and the council, the british government and the parliament, in ireland too, so i think it's not the way to conclude negotiations. i really think you need cool heads. there was another very interesting moment at a press conference when the irish prime minister, leo varadkar, handed a thank you card to jean—claude juncker, the president of the european commission and it subsequently came out the text of what the thank you card from someone in dublin was, it apparently said, thanking jean—claude juncker
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for the first time ever, ireland is stronger than britain. would you also thank jean—claude juncker and thanking —— thank brussels for strengthening ireland's hand ? i think they have been extremely helpful to us and extremely loyal in backing the good friday agreement, so i welcome the solidarity that we've had, but i equally don't want to see — like, the interests of the uk and ireland in all of this are enormous. i have no interest in us going back to the days of the past when we have a critical match and a slagging match, as we'd say in dublin, with each other. that would get none of us anywhere. both our economies are too important, the jobs of our people, the trade we do with each other, the relationship of agricultural community and to the british consumers for food, all these things
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are hugely important to the island of ireland. and the amount of goods that go every day between north and south, back and forwards, sometimes the same items go back and forward a few times for various processing reasons, so the last thing i want to see, and 20 years ago, i got a lot of credit for improving the relationship between ireland and the uk, and i do not want to go back to the bad old days where we criticised each other and ridiculed each other, so i think that's why the language needs to be stopped and tempered down. we need to be more considered. and the key people need to sit down and try and negotiate a conclusion. but there are many things that have changed in that time, not least the demographics in northern ireland, where there are an increasing number of catholics. and northern ireland of course voted to remain in the eu, which is why there are increasing calls for another vote, a vote on the reunification of ireland. we have sinn fein‘s deputy leader michelle 0'neill saying a new generation is already questioning partition,
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particularly in the context of brexit, and calling on the irish government to prepare a realistic plan for reunification. what do you say to those who say, look, this is maybe what the people of the island of ireland want? well, i certainly don't think this is the time to why the talk about it or have such a poll, the border poll, as it's called. it is correct to say, and i was responsible for putting a provision into the good friday agreement, that there can be a border poll from time to time with the say—so of the secretary of state, based on change in circumstances, but the key issue is that we don't have institutions up in northern ireland, we don't have the executive, the assembly, the north—south bodies, the east—west bodies, and the absence of those for the last few years i think gas been detrimental to the progress that we would have made in all these discussions if they had have been running. and i think the irish government
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or the british government can't be blamed for that. i think the idea of not getting them up and running, and not seeing them working, for several years, maybe then you consider a border poll, but to have a border poll now in the middle of this would be an act of insanity in my view. ok, but ultimately, in the next 20 years perhaps, perhaps longer, do you think a united ireland will be inevitable? i wouldn't say inevitable but i do think there will be a border poll and if the uk, which seems almost positive now to pull out of the eu, the issue then will notjust be about whether there should be a united ireland, people will also be reflecting, do northern ireland want to be in the european union or not? scotland might have a similar position in years to come but i do see that being a factor that people who want to be in europe will say, a united ireland is more attractive. but i would really only want to even talk about that discussion when i see the institutions in northern ireland working properly for a prolonged period,
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proving that they are capable of handling issues. sojust briefly, given where we are with the brexit negotiations, how fearful are you that all you achieved 20 years ago could come unstuck? i am worried about that, sarah. the difficulty, the slippery slope sometimes is something you can't stop on, and ijust fear that if we end up with any kind of a hard border, we would be on a slippery slope. ‘di hate to think it, but i worry about it. bertie ahern, thank you very much. hello there.
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the weather has taken a bit of a turn to something a lot more unsettled to end the week. something we haven't seen in quite a while, pretty deep areas of low pressure bringing gales and spells of heavy rain. and friday is looking very unsettled with a deep area of low pressure to bring widespread gales and quite heavy rain. now, this is actually a deep low that's been named storm erik by met eireann because it will likely bring disruptive winds to the northern half of the country including parts of scotland and northern england as we head from friday night into saturday. but early this morning, the winds will be picking up from the south—west as this storm gets closer. it'll be pushing in some pretty heavy rains in northern and western areas, maybe some snow
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over the scottish hills. it's going to be a very mild start to friday, particularly across the south—west. temperatures there in plymouth around 10 degrees. so it's going to be a very blustery morning. outbreaks of showery rain ahead of the main band of rain which will spread its way eastwards, bringing some pretty torrential in fact across some central and eastern areas into the afternoon. the rain remains heavy across much of scotland and northern ireland, those winds a real feature, as—ssmph across many areas. 60—70 across some northern and western coasts, particularly over hills as well. 0n the plus side, it'll be pretty mild because of those south—westerlies but 10—12 degrees might not feel so mild because of the wind and rain. now, storm erik is very slow—moving towards the north of the uk through friday and saturday, and on its southern flank we could see a swathe with strong winds across parts of northern ireland into central and southern scotland and northern england. so a very blustery start to the day, perhaps even disruptive to start on saturday morning.
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a very windy day for all but further south, we should see some sunshine around, although much of the northern scotland will remain very wet with further snow on the hills. rainfall totals really mounting here with a chance of localised flooding in places. again, another mild day in the south. there will be some more rain arriving in the south—west later on. so through friday and into saturday, we are likely to see some disruption from these very strong winds, so keep tuned to your weather forecast and to your bbc local radio. now, this feature may bring a spell of wet, maybe windy weather across the very far south of england, saturday night into sunday, but it should slowly clear away into the near continent as sunday wears on, so an improving picture here, with winds turning to a north—westerly direction. so that will be a cooler direction, but at least brightening up. and we will see a band of showery rain moving south across northern areas with some cool air there, so some snow on the hills. so it will be turning cooler from sunday onwards. hello.
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this is the briefing. i'm victoria fritz. our top stories today: jeff bezos, owner of amazon and the washington post, says the parent company of the national enquirer tried to blackmail him with "intimate photos". the body recovered from the wreckage of the plane that went down in the sea between france and britain is identified as footballer emiliano sala. and the pipeline and the president. a new plan to deliver russian gas to europe proves too much for donald trump. and robots to the rescue. the new deliverr service for supermarket shopping to thousands of busy brits. coming up in the business briefing: the world's biggest oil reserves, but not enough to eat. venezuela faces financial collapse, as the political standoff continues.
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