hello, you're watching afternoon live, i'm simon mccoy. today at 2pm. a fall in factory output and car production are blamed — as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. the chancellor, though, is upbeat. the important thing is that the economy is coming ahead of the opr forecast for 2018 and that is in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. don't bet on the races — as four more cases of equine flu are identified, authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume. a stark warning about the fate of the world's insects — they‘ re under threat — and there's a warning that that will affect all of us coming up on afternoon live all the sport — 0lly another one of manchester united's

class of 92 has gone into management. the new boss of the club that he had supported as a boy. after a wet and very windy entity last week's whether it is more settled as we head through the coming week and with double digit temperatures for many it will feel more springlike. from the russian islands which have declared an emergency — after mass invasion of polar bears hello everyone, this is afternoon live, i'm simon mccoy. a fall in factory output and car production are being blamed for the slowest growth in the uk economy for six years. growth in 2018 was 1.4%, down from 1.8% the previous year — and the lowest since 2012.

and according to the estimates, december was a particularly bad month. the chancellor remains upbeat saying the economy is "fundamentally strong", as andy verity explains. this telford manufacturer takes metal parts for everything from gateposts to lorries to streetlights and to zinc. in 2018, as for many british companies, business was slower than we liked. 0rders started dropping in the spring and for the rest of the year, that got worse. as it became obvious the economy was slowing down, the pound dropped in value, meaning we needed more pounds to buy raw materials in dollars or euros. cost pressures for us in 2018 were mostly due to rising zinc costs. zinc is our largest raw material used within a factory and it used to coats all of our components. as a double whammy for our customers, with rising steel prices, this proved very difficult for us in 2018. we also experienced a high turnover of staff which has had a negative impact on our efficiency.

manufacturing has often struggled when other sectors have done well. for most of the year, the services part of the economy, everything from warehousing to shops to haircuts was keeping the economy going. the important thing is the economy is coming ahead of the 0br's forecast for 2018. that's in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. so, a robust performance for the uk economy in 2018 which is all the more remarkable given the uncertainty around around the brexit process. while the economy was still growing at the end of 2018, even the service is part of it wasn't growing by much. this chart shows how much lower the economy is growing by now compared to the past. in the last three months of 2018, it was up byjust 0.2%, slower growth than most economists expected. these official figures show that the economy shrank in december by not 0.4% and it was down in construction, in production

and in the crucial services sector that makes up most of the economy. they have to treat these numbers with a degree of caution, but according to these official estimates, that's the first time that's happened since 2012. the figures have led some economists to fare that is why the rest of the world economy is slowing down, in the uk it's hitting the brakes harder and the bank of england has said brexit‘s related uncertainty is likely to be one reason that's happening. the bank of england made a big point about uncertainty really affecting business sentiment and consumer confidence. so, the longer that uncertainty lasts, the potential, the greater the potential for damaging investment and consumer spending. what households can buy with their money has been growing recently but that's only sustainable if the economy grows, too. before the financial crash,

the average economic growth was more than twice what these figures show. let's get more from our business correspondent, susannah streeter. brexit uncertainty, a fashionable phrase but you can't use it in china where they are also having similar problems. yes, there is a global slowdown and there are plenty of things about this. for example, exported into china are finding it difficult, however, it does have to be said that there is theirs as well, brexit uncertainty which are adding to the problems. the chancellor said the underlining economy is robust and his comments we re economy is robust and his comments were accurate. however, it does certainly seem in some sectors, construction for example, there is a real slowdown. so, if construction for example, there is a realslowdown. so, if all construction for example, there is a real slowdown. so, if all between the third and fourth quarters of last year, around 3%. that is according to the federation of master builders and that is the uncertainty. so for example, people

are not planning to extend their house. they might want to but they are not actually getting the builders in to do so. 0r booking a loft extension. those are adding up. yet, you look at italy already in recession, germany having problems, could be looking at serious problems. can be in any way quantify what the problem is if we take brexit out of this? is the chancellor was saying, robust is still a word that works. yes. as you we re still a word that works. yes. as you were saying, other economies are still experiencing problems. but there seems to be an extra layer here in the uk. a global slowdown, is affected the price of oil. many countries around the world are experiencing this. a slowdown in demand from china, also the ongoing trade war between the us and china, there are hopes today that there will be a breakthrough in and talks

are taking place over the weekend. but feet in that as well to what is happening here in the uk and you've got a bit of a storm. there is hope that perhaps this will be temporary here in the uk and their confidence will pick up and turn things around. not a huge surprise that we have been hearing about problems from the car industry and other industries here first. yes. car production was one of the sectors hit pretty hard and what you have been reflected in these recent growth figures. as you say, it is notjust brexit uncertainty, there are other factors coming into play, such as so many people don't want to buy diesel cars because of various different reasons, because of all the different environmental pressures that are being put on to motorists. so diesel car sales have fallen off a cliff and production has to catch up a cliff and production has to catch up with that. that'll be reflected in the figures of car production as well for 2018. you very much. the prime minister and the labour leaderjeremy corbyn look set to hold further talks over brexit.

but theresa may has rejected one ofjeremy corbyn's five demands for backing a brexit deal — keeping the uk in a permanent customs union. mrs may is trying to find a way out of the political impasse over brexit, with the uk's departure date of march 29th just over six weeks away. she's due to make a statment to mps tomorrow. here's our political correspondent nick eardley. the painstaking process of trying to deliver brexit continuous. searching for compromise in brussels and trying to build support at home. has the prime minister met your demands, mr corbyn...? for a long timejeremy corbyn has had little to agree with the government on. he set out his conditions for backing a deal and now the prime minister wants to talk. in a letter to mr corbyn, she says, she wants to discuss changes to the brexit deal to avoid a hard border in ireland. she pledges not to sacrifice workers rights or environmental protections, hints at funding for lending behind communities but a significant sticking point remains — whether to join a customs union. number ten says it cannot

agree and ministers are dismissive of labour's idea. it is very clear from the european union that non—eu members do not have a say in eu trade policy journal to pretend that you could do so is a dangerous delusion. much of what jeremy corbyn has put forward has a tinge of unrealism about it, i think the prime minister's letter in a sense will flush him out on some of those issues. labour says there is a basis for discussion but wants the government to move further. it looks like there could be some progress, but also, you know, she has to guarantee a permanent customs union, and it is not obvious that she is prepared to go down that line yet. but let's see how things progress. there is not a sudden outbreak of agreement yet. there are still real differences, not least on the idea ofjoining a customs union. jeremy corbyn isn't about to sign on the dotted line and back the prime minister's planet.

but theresa may needs as many votes as she can get and this might provide some cover for labour mps to get onside. we estimate it is some by between 40—60 who are actively looking for ways to support this at the moment. and obviously, if the labour party were to whip for that, then she would find the majority that she needs. so the work to find consensus continues but remember, there isn't long left. 0ur political correspondent, alex forsyth is in westminster. in this valentines week, it is all about will being and she needs labour mps all on her side. yes, and much of his breaking out the flowers and chocolates just yet but this is and chocolates just yet but this is an attempt by the prime minister to appear at least conciliatory that she is willing to compromise to find the common ground where she can, because to put it absolutely blu ntly, because to put it absolutely bluntly, the chances are she is going to need some labour mps to get

this deal through parliament if and when she bring something back from brussels, because she knows there are some people in a party that quite frankly will not support it because the chances are she won't get enough to bring them on side which is why we are seeing theirs. the dangerfor which is why we are seeing theirs. the danger for theresa may as if she ta kes too the danger for theresa may as if she takes too far, too many steps towards labour she risks alienating people in her own party and the real issueis people in her own party and the real issue is that issue of the customs union. the problem for conservative mps, for brexiteers in particular as this. if you are in a customs union with the eu, they say it will preclude you from having a trade policy which they see as the real highlight of brexit, the opportunity of leaving the eu, to forge trade deals with other countries. jeremy corbyn says we think we can get in a customs union that was allow us to have a say in future trade deals with the eu but that is yet to be bottled out, which is why we are hearing winning from the senior ministers saying we are aware that whatjeremy corbyn is offering, we

cannot sign up to enforce, because the backdrop is brexit is warning against it. this morning, the former foreign secretary, boris johnson, against it. this morning, the former foreign secretary, borisjohnson, a big player in the brexit campaign, issued a warning of his own about jeremy corbyn? 0ffer issued a warning of his own about jeremy corbyn? offer of compromise. i don't think there's any mileage for the prime minister of the government in trying to do a deal with labour. because, they will try to trap theresa may. they will try to trap theresa may. they will try to do to trap theresa may. they will try todoa to trap theresa may. they will try to do a deal that is toxic and has disastrous effects for the conservative party and worse still, corbyn's proposal will keep us locked in the customs union, looked in much of the supermarket forever and therefore, brexit, the promise made to the british people, of coming out of the eu institutions would be broken. so while theresa may is clearly seeking support, she

is conscious that if she doesn't lea n is conscious that if she doesn't lean too far towards labour, she will infuriate some of her own backbenchers, so it is a constant balancing act between the two. having saying that, there are other things about the guarantee unlike workers' rights, environmental regulations, where she hopes she can pick up some labour support. the panel as all too aware of the scale of the challenge he faces, and she is willing to tech support wherever she is willing to get it. thank you very much. the british horseracing authority is to confirm this evening whether racing will resume later this week — after the sport was put on hold because of an outbreak of equine flu. four more cases have been identified at a second yard in newmarket. six horses were found to be infected in cheshire last week. 0ur sport correspondent, richard conway has been at a stable in berkshire for us. here at seven barrows, the home of champion trainer nicky henderson, it's been business as usual this morning. the horses out but i'm joined by nicky now. this equine flu, no racing over the weekend, a decision pending on when or whether it can get back under way. the right decision was taken, where do you stand on this? i think at the time,

something had to be done very quickly, as you know there was an outbreak on wednesday. and we raced on wednesday and we were in contact with horses from the yard that had an outbreak. so, it was quite a distant line, but even so it had to be investigated and i think to buy time, that was probably the sensible thing to do. but, i think we have all then had come up all our horses have been swapped and tested. it looked as if it was coming up 100% negative, there were four cases found in newmarket last night which has clouded the water a little bit, because i think there a genuine hope that we might be able to resume this week and we await announcement tonight. but, your national hunt horses certainly apart from donald mccain, so unfortunately had the positives in the original instance on wednesday. i seriously think and hope we can get going.

and a month now until cheltenham. you've got your string of leading horses here ready. the feeling is perhaps racing can sacrifice a few fixtures as long as the big win goes ahead at cheltenham ? well we lost a big weekend last weekend, there was no doubt about that, but i think along with decision—making going on as we speak today, they are making decision the bha on whether we can resume. we've lost some important races and i'm hoping... i know they are, considering rescheduling some of those races that we rather importantly it needs as a part of our build—up to cheltenham. will that's the view from nicky henderson here at seven barrows and the bha saying they are taking stock of the samples they have gathered and the idea is that by this evening they can make a decision on whether racing can get back under way. to talk more about the equine flu outbreak we have been joined by drjanet daly, an associate professor in emergent viruses at the university of nottingham.

thank you very much forjoining us this afternoon. there is a fair out there that this outbreak will get worse before it gets any better. yes, i think unfortunately that is unlike, quite likely. there are venn outbreaks occurring in france, germany and ireland, so it is quite widespread. we are talking here about vaccinated horses. so, we are talking about a strain of flu, how quickly can a vaccination be made that will counter this? it is going to ta ke that will counter this? it is going to take quite a while to get a new strain into the vaccine, because it all has to be tested and so on. however, despite the fact that the vaccine isn't giving 100% protection at the moment, if horses get boosters, it's will afford some protection. how far can this virus travel? it has been generally

positive could travel up to a mile if they went is on the right direction. so presumably there will be fares about unvaccinated and horses that are not in any way perhaps linked to racing, but are equally vulnerable. absolutely. there was a case over the weekend of an un—vaccinated horse that despite ca re an un—vaccinated horse that despite care treatment had to be euthanised. and that underlies the danger of... we talk about flu in that rather flippant way, but this is something that can be seriously, that can kill. yes. most animals will recover within a couple of weeks, however there are certain susceptible individuals just like with human influenza that can get very sick. how has this happened because my can we ta ke how has this happened because my can we take our eye off the ball in terms of watching what happens with the movement of forces and when you get many horses together, there is a lwa ys get many horses together, there is always that risk, isn't there? cross contamination. yes. there is always that risk. there is a good

surveillance system, but u nfortu nately, surveillance system, but unfortunately, the human influenza surveillance system is really quite remarkable, hundreds of laboratories around the world contribute data and the surveillance for equine influenza is a bit more spice. the horse racing authorities are meeting this afternoon, they will want to know what the risks are. you will tell them presumably, until there is a vaccination, the risks are large. i think, if the owners can give booster vaccinations, they can help reduce the impact of the outbreak, but i think it's been a sensible decision to try and limit the spread by shutting down racing for the time being. for the time being, you feel it should continue. i think it's going to be up to the horse racing authorities, it's one of those catch—22 situations, that if they do shut it down, and nothing happens, they will get complaints and if they continue with racing, then they may get complaints. damned if they do

and damned if they don't. thank you very much. you're watching aftern.on live, these are our headlines a fall in factory output and car production are blamed — as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume as four more cases of equine flu are identified. and in sports, the final test in st lucia is back under way, england have already lost eight wickets. they still lead by over 150 runs on day three. first managerialjob for the manchester united format midfielder is the lead... apologies to the chelsea fans after a 6—0

defeat. hisjob is always to the chelsea fans after a 6—0 defeat. his job is always at risk. i'll be back in the next 15 minutes. a 2a —year—old man has appeared at hull magistrates‘ court on charges of voyeurism, outraging public decency and three counts of burglary. he was remanded in custody. pawel relowicz is the man arrested in relation to the search for libby squires — the student who went missing 11 days ago. the charges aren't connected to her disappearance, but he remains a person of interest. let's speak now to alison freeman who's in hull. what happened in court? he appeared in court very briefly this morning to face five charges. as you say, he is the man who has been questioned by police over the disappearance of missing student, libby squire. she has been missing for 11 days now. after a night out with friends, she

got a taxi home to her student accommodation but failed to go inside. she was then seen in streets nearby her home hasn't been seen since. the charges faced by pawel relowicz are completely unrelated to her disappearance. and speaking through an interpreter, he gave not guilty pleas to all five charges and those charges were one of voyeurism, what about raging public decency and one of burglary. they all relate to offences which are alleged to have taken place offences which are alleged to have ta ken place between offences which are alleged to have taken place between december 2017 and january of this year, and as i say, those charges are unrelated to the disappearance of libby squire. he denies all the charges and will next appear at hull crown court on the 11th of march. thank you very much. insects first appeared on earth hundreds of millions of years ago, and have evolved into the most numerous species on the planet. but a major new scientific study has found that more than 40% of those

species are vanishing fast, with an extinction rate eight times that of mammals, birds or reptiles. the use of pesticides and fertilisers, and the conversion of land to urban areas, are partly to blame. the study warns the consequences for the planets ecosystems could be catastrophic. 0ur environment analyst roger harrabin reports. how the countryside used to look. wild flower meadows buzzing with insects. but feels like these have virtually disappeared because intensive farming produces more food at less financial cost. pesticides may keep food prices down but they are a disaster for insects. the report says intensive farming is number one culprit for insect decline, followed by pollution, invasive species and climate change. in the last 50 years we have been losing insects to insecticides. it must leave an impact on the environment. it is a very bad system.

butterflies and mothss are hardest hit. the number of widespread butterfly species fell by 58% on farmland in england between 2000 and 2009. so many things depend on insects. in this country we have things like birds, amphibians, mammals, all eat insects. if we lost insects we would also lose those. in addition to our own food resources. a catastrophic impact. the threat to bees is well—established, although some species are more resilient than others. environmentalists want action. governments have given way to pressure from farmers. they have failed to take the action they needed to take to reduce the use of pesticides. insects have been poorly studied, so the authors of this report have made some assumptions. but their findings fit

a pattern of human impact on the natural world, a world in which one species of insect will almost certainly outlive humans. roger harradine, bbc news. let's speak to simon leather who's professor of entomology at harper adams university, to find out more about the study. as roger was explaining, we have known about problems facing bees for some time but this study takes a much broader look at what is going on and it's very worrying. yes, it is certainly painting a very dramatic picture and as somebody who can remember lots of insects in the past, flying into windscreens and things, i do agree that yes, insects do seem to be less common than when i was do seem to be less common than when iwasa do seem to be less common than when i was a lad. i think it would be unfairto point at

i was a lad. i think it would be unfair to point at all at pesticides and farmers. we need to point the decline towards all humans. 0ur population growth, the way we have fragmented habitats, just the way we live. a study came out three or four yea rs live. a study came out three or four years ago suggesting that motor traffic was killing hundreds of billions of moths and butterflies and bees in the united states every year. so that is a very big impact. we have talked many times about the impact of climate change, presumably thatis impact of climate change, presumably that is part of this as well. yes. climate change is also going to affect distributions, it is going to affect distributions, it is going to affect success of those insects that, it is going to make a lot of them a shift of their ranges as moisture and temperature conditions become unsuitable for them in their current locations. if they haven't got anywhere to move, if their habitats have been changed, they are

going to be in big trouble. those will say a world without mosquitoes and cockroaches is not a bad thing, but there are consequences which is wea k but there are consequences which is weak as we are hearing are catastrophic to all of those. yes. it is all interlinked. 0ne catastrophic to all of those. yes. it is all interlinked. one of the big problems is why people sort of thing, it's ok not to have mosquitoes. we don't really have enough training, in schools or universities, people don't really realise how important insects are to the world, for example, just to give an example on how poor training could be, we are the only university in the uk that actually teaches entomology. we have a masters in sustainable crop protection to help people understand how to work with insects when producing food. there are too few of that course around.

in terms of the next stage, animals that feed on insects themselves, you are looking at a potential wipe—out of other species. element yes. that again is one of the problem is that conservation issues, ecological issues are all sorts of coming from the top down. looking at things like pandas and the large charismatic mammals, rather than actually looking at what is underpinning the whole thing, the foundations of the world, the soil levels, the insects that live in the soil and above the soil and the plants that provide food stuff for those large charismatic birds and mammals. should our approach be nature has a way of sorting these things out or do we need to do something now? we need to do something now. we need to be thinking about ways to live much more alongside those insects and those other important organisms. the

soil microbes, for example. it's too easy to think we can solve it with, for example robotic pollinators, we need to actually be thinking how do we manage to live in a sustainable way and still produce food and still have somewhere to live without those insects, without the microbes supporting the insects, we are not going to have a very nice existence. very good of you to join us, thank you. a remote russian region has declared a state of emergency over what's been described as a "massive invasion" of polar bears. there have been reports of the animals entering buildings and attacking residents. caroline rigby reports. imagine opening your front door to this. polar bears are not uncommon in these parts but the frequency and sheer number of these visitors is unprecedented. entering homes and offices, the animals are also reported to have attacked people. local officials have described

the situation as a massive invasion and as the world's largest land predators, that has led him predators, that has led them to declare a state of emergency. the remote archipelago in the russian arctic is home to around 3000 people and since december, more than 50 bears have been reported in the region's settlement. officials say about six to ten can regularly be seen in and around the local military garrison. climate change has caused arctic sea ice to melt and that has driven polar bears to spend more time on land in an effort to find food. but this change in behaviour from hunters to scavengers has seen them increasingly come in to contact and conflict with humans. and with the bears ever more present, some residents are now scared to walk down the streets or even leave their homes. polar bears are recognised as an endangered species in russia, so hunting them is banned.

police have tried to scare them off with signals and patrols. even local dogs have had a go. but so far, these efforts have proved largely ineffective. now the federal authorities have promised to send a commission to investigate and a cull to control these beautiful, but unwelcome visitors hasn't been ruled out. caroline rigby, bbc news. time for a look at the weather. this is china. it's not unusual to see snow at this time of the year. they have just seen quite a lot of it and it is when it fell. it fell either side of chinese new year celebrations, it did cause some travel disruption. people are not managing to get where they needed to be and if they did, because they saw quite a lot of snow, they then couldn't get back. that has caused

quite a bit of disruption but it is not in unusual. we've also had snow injapan. not in unusual. we've also had snow in japan. look at not in unusual. we've also had snow injapan. look at this. this is taken ina injapan. look at this. this is taken in a zoo. not unusual for japan to see snow. but could this polar bear enjoy the snow anymore? we did wonder if it reminded a fault of anyone, we decided that wasn't the case at all. a very different story for us. feeling more like spring. we've got some glorious sunshine around. down the east coast, we have a little bit more of a breeze. did you say the words bring? yes. we are going to draw up this milder air and so through the day today, we are starting to see some good spells of sunshine. quite cold out there. thursday, you might wa nt to cold out there. thursday, you might want to get out your... bikini. i haven't seen any blossom yet. basically, we arejust haven't seen any blossom yet. basically, we are just showing a lovely weather watcher pictures.

this one looks glorious. and then our final one, this one looks glorious. and then ourfinal one, just this one looks glorious. and then our final one, just makes you want to get out and go for a walk. lots of sunshine around. there will be some variations and our weather as we had to do this week. we have got high pressure in charge. building down towards the south and the west. really going to influence our weather through the coming days. northerly air flow at the moment, quizzical direction to be coming from, it does feel quite fresh down that north sea coast. as the beat goes on, we begin to draw in this milderair goes on, we begin to draw in this milder air from goes on, we begin to draw in this milder airfrom the south goes on, we begin to draw in this milder air from the south and the west. some good spells of sunshine around, through this afternoon. a bit more cloud lacking into northern ireland and creeping in. lighter winds, a little bit easierfor the western isles and as we go through the day today, six celsius for aberdeen. 0n certain nights, and that's rain, these weatherfronts producing the clouds in northern ireland and scotland, gradually make further inward overnight. some of that rain may turn a bit more

persistent for north—west scotland and that clouds may bill down into northern england and into the midlands will be hang on to clearer skies across east anglia, down to the far south and east. we could have patchy first and maybe some mist and fog, everyone is by thing tomorrow morning, quite a cause that any day. just noticed, our area of high pressure, drifting slightly out towards the south and the east. that is where we start to draw in less south westerly airflow. quite a lot of cloud associated with it. brazier up of cloud associated with it. brazier up towards the north and west of scotland, will be deeply cloud, breadth of patchy rain but as high pressure, we can. rain makes its way down into north—west england, but notice aberdeen tomorrow, widely backed up into double figures. very different feel to our weather as we had through tuesday. that theme continues as we head into wednesday. still drawing up this milder air, as our area of still drawing up this milder air, as ourarea of high still drawing up this milder air, as our area of high pressurejust dress a little bit further eastwards as we had through the day on wednesday, we start to draw up drier airfrom the

south. what that will do is the goes on, more through the southern half of the uk will start to see more in the way of sunshine. still breezy across parts of northern ireland and western scotland, but it is going to feel pleasant. most places seeing temperatures in double digits, and those temperatures are above average for the time of the year. southerly flow, continues as we head into thursday, more of us getting in to see drier at work at way and, more of us getting to see sunshine as we had through the day on thursday. with the sunshine, and with temperatures like this. i think by thursday, february will start to feel a bit more springlike. this is bbc news — our latest headlines. a fall in factory output and car production are blamed — as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012.

theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. and horse racing is on hold until at least wednesday with four new positive tests for equine flu. sport now on afternoon live with 0lly foster one. england are in control against the west indies, but they've got off to the worst possible start? adds a bit late as well. they were in control, they had a very good day yesterday, with ben stokes and jos buttler, but very first ball of the day, rory burns added. rory burns out first ball of the day, it was 19 without loss. they are knocking at 170, 180 now. a bit of a

lost cause, but very important in many ways, this test, simon. the latest, 15—1. joe denly now at the crease with keatonjennings. it is very important that they get and good opening partnership. do they know what their opening partnership will be going into the ashes in august or september. after this test, they have got the one—off ore day test against ireland, simon, and thenit day test against ireland, simon, and then it is the ashes, so england might feel a little undercooked going into the ashes, but it is important that they sign off from this test series, with a win at least, if not a series win. we talked about saying how it was going to be england's year cricket wise but not rugby —wise, but look at us now. also, paul scholes. it could be

a little bit awkward. the punditry has been very cutting. remember that sort of class of 92, the golden generation of manchester united players. ryan giggs, he is the wales manager, nicky butt, a very well—regarded youth team coach. phil neville, england women's manager. gary neville not so good. but, paul scholes, nell 0ld ham athletic manager, the club that he supported asa manager, the club that he supported as a boy. now, the english football league had to ratify this, gave him the all clear late last week, because he's got a stake in city. salford city —— salford city. salford city —— salford city. salford city —— salford city.

salford city could go up at the moment. they are only nine points of the play—offs, so it is a big ask, but paul scholes will be seeing if you can get them up into league1 straightaway. he has been given an 18 month deal there at 0ldham athletic. we will see how he gets on asa athletic. we will see how he gets on as a manager. maurizio sarri said sorry to the chelsea supporters after what he saw as a unacceptable performance. they lost 6—0 to manchester city. when asked about the future, he said that his job is a lwa ys the future, he said that his job is always at risk. no handshake there between the two managers, but he put that right, maurizio sarri saying that right, maurizio sarri saying that he did not intend that, he just mist it. there's a potential six nations title decider in just under a fortnight. england head coach eddiejones has already started playing some mind—games, saying that they will face the "greatest wales side ever" england thrashed france ali points to 8 yesterday. jonny may went over for a hattrick of tries inside 30 minutes at twickenham.

the win earned england another bonus point win and takes them two points clear of the unbeaten welsh, who made 10 changes for their victory against italy. they played obviously a squad team, i suppose that is the modern term for the team now, in the second game, but they are the greatest welsh team ever. most wins in a row, so it is a great challenge for us. more injury news for scotland — ryan wilson will miss the remainder of the six nations. the glasgow forward suffered knee ligament damage in saturday's loss to ireland at murrayfield. we'll find out this evening whether or not horse racing will resume on wednesday. four more cases of equine flu have been identified at a second yard. six horses were found to be infected in cheshire last week. the new outbreak is in newmarket. national hunts showpiece meeting the cheltenham festival is a month away. here's leading trainer nicky henderson. the next step is the crucial one.

you know, we knew it was out. we are in contact with horses that had been in contact with horses that had been in contact with horses that had been in contact with a horse that was infected, so there was a very tenuous line to it. but 0k, infected, so there was a very tenuous line to it. but ok, i think by not waiting over the weekend, was a good enough decision to buy time to decide what to do. i think we need to get on, personally. 0bviously everybody hopes we can. purely because, if you don't start now? when can you? the same thing is going to be stopping us in weak‘s time. if we can't go now, i don't see what else can change. a big decision for horse racing, as to when racing can get going. thank you very much. the senior police officer in charge of preparing for a no—deal brexit has said there's a risk such an outcome

would leave britain less safe. deputy assistant commissioner richard martin said some suspects could evade arrest if the uk lost access to the european arrest warrant and europol. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford reports. brought together in one office in central london at the cost of £5.6 million, some of the uk's experts on working with overseas police forces. the unit has been set up to prepare for the possibility of the uk leaving the eu without a deal in less than seven weeks. if that happens, then in an instant, uk forces will lose access to all the joint european policing tools that have taken decades to develop. they say they will have to go back to using much of the processes. —— much older processes. policing is not going to stop overnight. you know, we will still be there using all the tools available to us to keep our communities safe, but it goes without saying that these processes

are slower, they are clunky. and there is obviously a chance that we are not as efficient as we are now. police point to the example of the former stephen lawrence suspect, jamie acourt, arrested in spain and brought back to britain a month later, using the european arrest warrant. compare that with jack shepherd, who was convicted of manslaughter after a speedboat accident. he was detained in georgia, from where it could take months to bring him back to the uk. if the eu policing tools are lost, the fall—back options are agreements from the 1950s. instead of using the european arrest warrant, they will use the 1957 european convention on extradition. and the new european criminal records information system will be replaced by the 1959 convention on mutual assistance in criminal matters.

this international crime coordination centre has been set up to deal with the worst case scenario, in which uk policing loses access to key european policing tools. it is designed to make the best of the alternative arrangements, to make them run as smoothly and as quickly as possible. but senior officers can see that in some cases the system will work too slowly, and wanted criminals will have time to simply disappear. the defence secretary gavin williamson has announced plans to modernise the armed forces so britain can redefine its role in the world after brexit. he said a bolder and stronger military was needed, ready to use its power — or risk being seen as a paper tiger. 0ur defence correspondent jonathan beale says that mr williamson sees leaving the european union as a potentially positive move. he thinks it's the greatest opportunity facing the country to redefine its role in the world. that he says will require bolder, stronger, more lethal armed forces, which he said britain must be ready to use. this is what he said. global britain needs to be much more than a pithy phrase. it has to be about action,

and our armed forces represent the best of global britain in action. taking action alongside our friends and allies, action to strengthen the hand of fragile nations, and support those who face natural disaster, action to oppose those who flout international law. now, as part of that, he said he is sending britain's new aircraft carrier to the pacific to challenge china's territorial claims to some waters. he also announced that he is going to invest extra money in cyber operations, but also to buy swarms of drones, new ships that could mount attacks on the land, i mean, how realistic is this? well, at the moment, the mod can't really afford the equipment it has already ordered, that said, the mod also claims that they have costed this. i think they will be plenty of doubts about that. there is a black hole in the mod‘s budget of up to £15 billion. and then, you could ask about scale.

can britain be everywhere in the world? armed forces much smaller than they were a decade ago. we depend on america largely for intervention, and the signs are from this current administration in the us, is that they want a lesser role in the world, not a bigger role the world. up to 86,000 women aged between 35 and 39 with a family history of breast cancer should receive annual mammograms, according to new research. a trial by the charity breast cancer now found that screening a younger age group detected small tumours early in comparison to the current nhs screening age of a0. here's our health correspondent dominic hughes. at present, breast cancer screening is offered to women from the age of a0 who are thought to be at a moderate or higher risk because of a significant family history of the illness but a new research project that extended screening to at risk women from the age of 35 found there could be real benefits. more tumours were detected when they were significantly smaller in size and before

they reached the lymphatic system which can spread the disease around the body. the earlier breast cancer is found, the more treatable it is. screening finds breast cancer at a really early stage, before it can be seen or felt and at that stage, treatment is less invasive and the cancer is more likely to be survivable. more people are surviving breast cancer than ever before, but it remains the biggest killer of women under 50 in england and wales. more than 920 under 50s lost their lives to the disease in 2017 and it's the uk's most common cancer with around 55,000 women and 350 men being diagnosed each year in the uk. the authors of the study warn that more analysis is needed on the risks, costs and benefits associated with extending the screening programme. if it is made more widely available, as many as 86,000 women in the uk could be eligible but that's likely to still be some yea rs away.

dominic hughes, bbc news. in a moment we will be hearing us what's hot and what's not in the business news. first a look at the headlines on afternoon live: a fall in factory output and car production are blamed as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume as four more cases of equine flu are identified. here's your business headlines on afternoon live: the uk economy grew at its slowest annual rate in six years in 2018 — after a sharp fall in output in december. growth for the year was 1.4%, that's down from 1.8% in 2017. philip hammond must commit to billions in extra

spending to end austerity — according to a warning from think tank the institute for fiscal studies. it says an extra £5 billion a year is needed by 2023 to keep current spending commitments. mike ashley has withdrawn a bid to by the beleagured coffee and cake chain patisserie valerie out of administration. sports direct offered £15 million but was told by administrators that it wasn't enough. other companies including costa coffee are thought to be interested in the chain. that obviously has an impact not just the china and the us, but for the global economy, partly because of this ongoing trade row where we have seen tariffs placed on billions of dollars worth of goods, and that is filtering through to other companies do our countries, for example, here in the uk, how growth

has slowed markedly, and that is partly due to the global slowdown, as well as brexit uncertainty. these talks are taking place in beijing, and actually, there has been a conciliatory tone at the beginning, so markets have risen a little bit. there is a feeling of deja vu. we have been here before. exactly, and we have got a looming deadline in march, otherwise there will be billions of dollars more times slammed on lots of other goods which could worsen the global outlook. so let's find out what those remarks were? why do you think there is some optimism, even though we have seen it before? the markets are reacting positively to the positive remarks coming out of chinese officials at the start of this week's talks. i

think it is too soon to tell, because the mood music does seem to go back and forth on this one. dust lastly, we had from one of the white house economic advisers, saying that there was a sizeable distance remaining. we said that donald trump “ we remaining. we said that donald trump —— we had donald trump saying that a face—to—face meeting was unlikely to happen, and you have now got us warships in south china sea bill, again showing a sign of strength and welcomed by chinese. it is hard to tell whether progress can be made, at the moment, you have got your special tear of assistance meeting this week. later this week, another meeting... whether or not a breakthrough will eventually happen, we will have to wait and see, but what is clear is that donald trump would like to declare a winner and the chinese would like to move past this. and it is a political issue,

donald trump declaring a win, because he is also dealing with another deadline, the fact that ds could shut down again, or at least a partial government shutdown? well, groundhog day, it certainly feels like that. we were hearing last week, talks to avert a government shutdown, they appear to be going well, and then suddenly over the this breakdown. 0ne well, and then suddenly over the this breakdown. one where she —— one issue is the wall, and another one issue is the wall, and another one is about the number of people who can be detained. this led to a collapse over the weekend. whether or not they can get back on track, we will have to see, but time is running out. they will have to try and craft legislation by the end of

tomorrow, if they are to get it done in time to avoid shutdown this week. any indication of how much the previous shutdown cost the us economy? side beyond the us shows, probably not too much. a lot of the damage was referring specifically to government workers and the debts they had to incurjust to get by, while they were waiting for pay. of course you had people who never got back pay. any broader sense of the economy, people were too worried. but if there is another shutdown, an official thinks it could have more damaging impact on the economy. many thanks. and finally! — there's a tinder for cows — is there really susannah? if you own cows and require the services of a bull — we'll there's now an app for that. called tudder, it allows farmers to fidnthe perfect match for their cattle — they swipe through a selection

of cows and bulls, giving information about their breed, location and type. interestingly, there is a disclaimer. it also says, this is also just disclaimer. it also says, this is alsojust forfun. disclaimer. it also says, this is also just for fun. it is linked to an online marketplace that already existed to match cows and bulls. if you are in that part of the business, you have got to get the right match. there is currently a pedigree breeding bull and ethics, if you are interested. the app with an udder icon — has been designed by farming technology firm hectare and links to its livestock marketplace — sellmylivestock. there is an icon with an udder.

the pound, the main indicator of britain's economic health, fell against the euro and dollar in reaction to that growth data i was telling you about — showing a sharp slowdown in the economy, especialy during the final three months of last year. also, people are pointing out that other economies are growing much more slowly than uk. germany, france and italy are slower than ours. but, it is obviously what would have happened but also you have for example the construction industry. they have not seen a full between the second and third quarter for seven yea rs, the second and third quarter for seven years, and they said that is to do with the uncertainty and high cost of materials and people leaving the uk and heading back to the eu. i'm just showing the other side, and we have to show both sides. and we have. the baftas last night proved a golden success for the historical

romp ‘the favourite', which swept up seven awards including best actress for its british star 0livia colman as queen anne. the best film award went to the black and white mexican movie roma, the first time a production by the video streaming service netflix has won. 0ur entertainment correspondent lizo mzimba reports. joining the duke and duchess of cambridge at the annual film awards, representatives of cinema royalty. and it was a royal—themed film that won the most awards — the favourite. go back to your rooms. british star rachel weisz won best supporting actress and the historical comedy drama took home seven awards in all, including outstanding british film, best costume design, and best actress for 0livia colman. did you? look at me. look at me! how dare you! close your eyes! she paid tribute to her two co—stars, rachel weisz and emma stone. emma and rachel — must keep it together.

um, not just for your performances, but for what you did after the cameras stopped rolling. and we've never talked about this, and i find it very emotional. but you were the best and classiest and coolest honour guard any woman could ever have, and i love you. # so you think you can stone me and spit in my eye... the best actor prize went to rami malek for his portrayal of freddie mercury in the queen biopic bohemian rhapsody. thank you so very much to queen, to brian may, to roger taylor, to the entire queen family. wouldn't be here without you. and to the greatest outsider of them all, thank you freddie mercury again. best film went to black and white mexican drama roma. the first time a netflix film has won the night's most prestigious award. lizo mzimba, bbc news. time for a look at the weather... here's mel coles. after a turbulent end to our weather la st after a turbulent end to our weather last week, it is much more settled

for the coming week. most places will see a lot of fine and dry weather. and those temperatures will be quite complimentary. by thursday, many places will feel more springlike. it is down to an area of low pressure that is —— high pressure that is building. that will give us a different feel to our weather. at the moment, we are drawing in northerly whence. having said that, we are seeing quite a lot of crisp sunshine around. as the big draws on, we draw this milder air. 0utbreaks draws on, we draw this milder air. outbreaks of draws on, we draw this milder air. 0utbrea ks of patchy draws on, we draw this milder air. outbreaks of patchy rain, but a bit more breezy. a good deal of sunshine, and temperatures back up into double figures. the further south and west uk. some of that rain turning more persistent across parts of western scotland. away from that in east anglia, and down towards the far south east, where we hang on to clearer skies for longer, we could see a patchy frost in some spots,

and perhaps a mist and fog around first thing. here is our area of high pressure drifting out towards the south and east. we begin to draw ourairfrom the the south and east. we begin to draw our air from the south—west. that is a milder direction. there will be generally a bit more cloud around through the day on tuesday. breezy, too, with our weather frontjust making its way through parts of northern ireland in western scotland, perhaps into northern england, too, but it will tend to fizzle out. temperatures widely in double figures, a very different feel across aberdeenshire, with those temperatures back up to around 12 celsius. as we had three wednesday and into thursday, we start to see a subtle change, drawing up ourairfrom start to see a subtle change, drawing up our airfrom the south, which is a drier direction. we will tend to see big lad break up a bit, and allow for a bit more more sunshine. some more cloud through northern ireland and western scotland, but once again mild, there temperatures are above average for the time of the year. that dryer and

makes further inroads as we head into thursday, more of us getting to see some sunshine, and it will feel more springlike than many of us. —— for many of us. hello, you're watching afternoon live. i'm simon mccoy. today at 3: a fall in factory output and car production are blamed as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. the chancellor, though, is upbeat. the important thing is that the economy is coming ahead of the ibr's forecast for 2018 and that's in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. don't bet on the races — as four more cases of equine flu

are identified, authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume. a stark warning about the fate of the world's insects — they‘ re under threat — and there's a warning that that will affect all of us coming up on afternoon live all the sport. paul scholes is the latest from manchester united's class of 92 to make it into maangement, he's the new boss at 0ldham athletic thanks 0lly, and we'll bejoining you for a full update just after half—past. mel has all the weather. so far february has thrown its now severe gales and torrential rain away. this week it is much quieter to stop a ridge of high pressure coming in and temperatures up to double digits in many spots it will feel springlike. thanks mel. also coming up — we'll have the latest from the russian islands which have declared an emergency — after mass invasion of polar bears.

hello everyone — this is afternoon live. a fall in factory output and car production are being blamed for the slowest growth in the uk economy for six years. growth in 2018 was 1.4%, down from 1.8% the previous year — and the lowest since 2012. and according to the estimates, december was a particularly bad month. the chancellor remains upbeat saying the economy is "fundamentally strong", as andy verity explains. this telford manufacturer takes metal parts for everything from gateposts to lorries to streetlights and coats them in zinc. in 2018, as for many british companies, business was slower than we liked. 0rders started dropping in the spring and for the rest of the year, that got worse. as it became obvious the economy was slowing down,

the pound dropped in value, meaning we needed more pounds to buy raw materials in dollars or euros. cost pressures for us in 2018 were mostly due to rising zinc costs. zinc is our largest raw material used within a factory and it used to coat all of our components. as a double whammy for our customers, with rising steel prices, this proved very difficult for us in 2018. we also experienced a high turnover of staff which has had a negative impact on our efficiency. manufacturing has often struggled when other sectors have done well. for most of the year, the services part of the economy, everything from warehousing to shops to haircuts was keeping the economy going. the important thing is the economy is coming ahead of the 0br's forecast for 2018. that's in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. so, a robust performance for the uk economy in 2018 which is all the more remarkable given the uncertainty around the brexit process.

while the economy was still growing at the end of 2018, even the services part of it wasn't growing by much. this chart shows how much slower the economy is growing by now compared to the past. in the last three months of 2018, it was up byjust 0.2%, slower growth than most economists expected. these official figures show that the economy shrank in december by 0.4% and it was down in construction, in production and in the crucial services sector that makes up most of the economy. they have to treat these numbers with a degree of caution, but according to these official estimates, that's the first time that's happened since 2012. the figures have led some economists to fare that is why the rest of the world economy is slowing down, in the uk it's hitting the brakes harder and the bank of england has said brexit‘s related uncertainty is likely to be one reason that's happening. the bank of england made a big point about uncertainty really affecting business sentiment

and consumer confidence. so, the longer that uncertainty lasts, the potential, the greater the potential for damaging investment and consumer spending. what households can buy with their money has been growing recently but that's only sustainable if the economy grows, too. before the financial crash, the average economic growth was more than twice what these figures show. the prime minister and the labour leaderjeremy corbyn look set to hold further talks over brexit. but theresa may has rejected one ofjeremy corbyn's five demands for backing a brexit deal — keeping the uk in a permanent customs union. mrs may is trying to find a way out of the political impasse over brexit, with the uk's departure date of march 29th just over six weeks away. she's due to make a statment to mps tomorrow. here's our political correspondent nick eardley. the painstaking process of trying to

deliver brexit continues. searching for compromise in brussels, trying to build support at home. at the pma demands com? for a long time mr corbin has had time to... after he set out his conditions were backing a deal, the prime minister wants to talk. in a letter theresa may says she wants to discuss changes to the brexit deal. she promises not to sacrifice workers' rights and hints at funding for community is left behind. a sticking point remains, whether to join behind. a sticking point remains, whether tojoin a behind. a sticking point remains, whether to join a customs union. number 10 says it can't agree. it's very clear from the european union that non—eu members do not have a say in the eu trade policy, so to pretend that we could do so is a dangerous delusion. much of what

jeremy corbyn has put forward has a tinge of un—realism about it and i think the prime minister's letter will flushing out on some of those issues. labour says there is a basis for discussion and wants the government to move further.m for discussion and wants the government to move further. it looks like there could be some progress, but also she has to guarantee a permanent customs union and it's not obvious that she is not prepared to go down that line. let's see how things progress. that dozen to sudden outbreak of agreement on brexit, there are so real differences, not least on that idea of joining differences, not least on that idea ofjoining a customs union. jeremy corbyn is not about to sign on the dotted line and back the prime ministers plan. theresa may needs as many ministers plan. theresa may needs as ma ny votes ministers plan. theresa may needs as many votes she can. we estimate it is somewhere between a0 and 60 who are actively looking for ways to support this at the moment and, if the labour party were looking to weapon that she would find majority

that she needs. is a work to find consensus and compromise continues, but remember that there is not long left. the position for theresa may is best. she is going to look for support from forever she can get it. she knows that the chances are that if she brings us to back the house of commons that she is going to need some support from labour to try to get it through, because the chances are some in her own party will not be upforgiving are some in her own party will not be up for giving her their support no matter what, unless you can get something really significant from brussels. it is right to say there are still significant differences between the parties. the signal getting from number 10 so far is that they are not prepared to go far enough to meetjeremy corbyn's demand for the permanent customs union. the conversations are

happening but there has been no outbreak of peace. i'm joined by the labourmp. outbreak of peace. i'm joined by the labour mp. what is going to take the backs of your colleagues on board? the current mood is very positive in my view. the prime minister's response is very positive. she has ticked off three and a half of jeremy's demands and that leads 1.5 to start if there is any agreement there. the harder ones to sort. you're quite right about the question of the customs union, it is the most complex. and with the prime minister will come back to jeremy corbyn and say what you mean, what you mean in terms of free movement of labour? what you mean in terms of trade deals and whether we can do trade deals and whether we can do trade deals? both of which labour has had a clear position on in the past. that is complex and will need more work, that is i think the two

will have to meet. they will have to try and hammer this through and see some consensus can be reached. it is moving in that direction in my view. the labour colleague has estimated that a0 to 60 mp5 the labour colleague has estimated that a0 to 60 mps want to be convinced to get behind the prime minister's deal, do you think that is right? those figures seem right and is probably more who are against and is probably more who are against a second referendum and will vote against the second referendum. there isa against the second referendum. there is a bit of consolidation about what is a bit of consolidation about what is the world is going to be like in april if we've left? will it be a new deal brexit and all the short—term disasters that will occur from that, or will it be the smoothness of a deal? the real complexities are the transitional period and these trade negotiations. this is all a precursor to the most difficult part. which is why i think

some kind of agreement ought to be possible. i don't think there's that much separating thejeremy corbyn position and the theresa may position. what happens at those negotiations in the future is perhaps what is being argued about now. what i'm urging both sides, and have urged the payments to directly, is to ensure that employers and trade unions are in the mix. they represent workers, workforces, industry and their view is pivotal in ensuring you have a good negotiation and a good brexit. the problem is thatjeremy corbyn has issued this demand for a permanent customs union and the theresa may goes that way it will alienate a lot on the conservative benches. as the labour leader being genuine for this offer or is he trying to back payments into a corner? its his negotiating stance. everyone has said, including jeremy, not everyone

gets what they want to lessen the need to be some compromise. defining what a permanent custom define what a permanent customs union means it is important. can we do trade deals to less developed countries are developing nations in africa for example. i think a labour government would be keen to do that. if your hands are tied on that it will be the best kind of brexit. i think there is quite a lot in common or no possession, even in relation to our relations on trade and the trade deal. trying to match the two together is the keno. the more they speak and that. i hope mr corbin will be in there. as things stand we don't know for any firm date for them to continue discussions. both sides are clean to appear to be

consolatory. the dilemma for theresa may is that if she does reach out to labour, she risks alienating some in her own parter. the british horseracing authority is to confirm this evening whether racing will resume later this week — after the sport was put on hold because of an outbreak of equine flu. four more cases have been identified at a second yard in newmarket. six horses were found to be infected in cheshire last week. 0ur sport correspondent, richard conway has been at a stable in berkshire for us. here are seven barrows the it has been business as usual. we are joined by nicky now. no racing over the weekend, a decision pending on when it can get back under way. the rate decision was taken, we do stand on this? we knew the time that something had to be done very quickly, because you know is that there was an outbreak on wednesday.

we raced on wednesday. we were in contact with horses from the yard that had had an outbreak, so it was quite a distant line, but even so it had to be investigated. to buy time, that was properly the sensible thing to do. we've all then had our horses swabbed and tested. 0ne looked as if it was coming 100% negative. there we re it was coming 100% negative. there were four cases found in newmarket last night, which has clouded the water is a little bit. there is a genuine hope that we might be able to resume this week and we await an announcement tonight. the national hunt horses, apart from donald mccain's and had the original incidents on wednesday, i seriously think and hope we can get going. month now until cheltenham. you have your leading horses here ready, the

feeling is perhaps that racing can sacrifice a few fixtures as long as the big one goes ahead at chelsea and? we lost a big weekend last weekend. along with decision—making going on as we speak today, there be making decisions on whether we can resume. we've lost some important races and i'm hoping and i know they are, considering the scheduling some of those races that we rather importantly need as part of a build up importantly need as part of a build up cheltenham. that is the view from nicky henderson say that they are taking stock of the examples that they've gathered and the idea is that by this evening they'll be able to make a decision on whether rethinking a back under way. to talk about the business consequences let's speak to our correspondent, susannah streeter. the bill of nervous people around. yes it is estimated to be around

billions of pounds to the uk economy. not just through billions of pounds to the uk economy. notjust through training but also to catering and media coverage and betting. betting is key. it is not that the betting industry could be losing around £200 million per day and that matters. they pay a levy which goes into the prize money and health for the horses and many other different things. getting that money is absolutely exceptional for the sport. that's why you said mr henderson saying that he was really hoping that some of these meats will be rescheduled. that's what the british horseracing authority will be looking at doing. at the moment we don't know when the suspension will stop, but i know that the british horseracing authority is working very hard to try and establish whether it's safe to resume. on the horizon the cheltenham festival seems 0k?

resume. on the horizon the cheltenham festival seems ok? with questions over something as big as that this goes into higher gear, doesn't it? yes if it affects a huge event like that, a lot of people could be seriously out of pocket. it will mean that racing can resumption sooner will mean that racing can resumption sooner rather than later these measures are put in place. let's speak to dr rob van pelt, the director of the sussex equine hospital. we seem to be looking at the start ofan we seem to be looking at the start of an outbreak which would suggest that racing are not going to happen any time soon? they have invested money long into an equine influenza programme held by the animal health trust. the animal health trust has been

plotting where this virus is and trying to establish when it came from. certainly donald mccain's courses have been followed into every other yard and those trainers have been on lockdown. now they have related samples which the animal health trust are now processing. networking is really hard to try and get racing resumed. we certainly could have done without these four foot positive tests that came up yesterday. they seem to be unrelated to the original six horses that tested positive and people will be working very hard to try and establish a link. be it through non—thoroughbreds or unvaccinated horses in the environment. we talking about horses that had been vaccinated here, but horses that inevitably travel together, arise at meets is together. the chance of

contamination is there. are very much so and the british horseracing authority did vary the debate thing in my view. horses will not be able to tell you whether they are hundred percent or not. they are fine tuned athletes and they can damage themselves are it appeared ugly. they travel far and wide and sa horse they can spread very easily to the four corners of the country. the correct thing to do, but now we have a handle on it and the meeting tonight will discuss the future. a handle on it and the meeting tonight will discuss the futurem said to have a handle on it, only a0% of the horses in this country are actually vaccinated. there has to be concern about horses that aren't part of the racing world and that this is a virus that can be spread a mile by the wind alone.

yes, very easily. there is estimated to be about 1 yes, very easily. there is estimated to be about1 million horses in this country. 0nly to be about1 million horses in this country. only about a0% vaccinated. it's been mounted totally to vaccinate fun thoroughbreds since 1981, since we had a really big outbreak which halted racing for some six weeks. the virus is certainly going to establish itself well in the non—thoroughbred population and it's all very well if we put these control measures into place, but other stakeholders in the equine industry also need to look at themselves and consider vaccinating and increasing by a security within the stables. vaccination is fine, but it's the particular strain they're looking to identify and how quickly can a specific vaccine be made? two questions there, the festival. they are genetically

typing a virus as we speak. flu was first invent identified in about 1963 and showed genetic drift into two different variants. the one is basically established in the usa, posed to the second which is endemic within europe. this outbreak seems to be associated with the one, so it's slightly more virulent of the two. we vaccinate in this country against both strains. we have very good vaccines out there already and you will get car rust protection between one and two anyway. thank you forjoining us. a 2a —year—old man has appeared at hull magistrates‘ court

on charges of voyeurism, outraging public decency and three counts of burglary. he was remanded in custody. pawel relowicz is the man arrested in relation to the search for libby squires — the student who went missing 11 days ago. the charges aren't connected to her disappearance, but he remains a person of interest. 0ur correspondent alison freeman has more from hull. he appeared in court very briefly this morning to face five charges. as you say, pawel relowicz is the man who has been questioned by police over the disappearance of missing student libby squire. she has been missing for around 11 days now after a night out in the city with friends. she got a taxi home to her student accommodation, but failed to go inside. she was then seen on the streets nearby her home, but hasn't been seen since. now, the charges faced by pawel relowicz are completely unrelated to libby squire's disappearance. speaking to an interpreter, he gave not guilty pleas to all five charges those charges are one of voyeurism, one of

outraging public decency and three of burglary. all of those charges are said to relate to offences which are alleged to have taken place between december 2017 and january of this year. as i say, those charges are unrelated to the disappearance of libby squire. he denies all the charges and he will next appear at hull crown court on the 11th of march. insects first appeared on earth hundreds of millions of years ago, and have evolved into the most numerous species on the planet. but a major new scientific study has found that more than a0% of those species are vanishing fast, with an extinction rate eight times that of mammals, birds or reptiles. the use of pesticides and fertilisers, and the conversion of land to urban areas, are partly to blame. the study warns the consequences for the planets ecosystems could be catastrophic. 0ur environment analyst roger harrabin reports. how the countryside used to look.

wild flower meadows abuzz with insects, but fields like these have virtually disappeared because intensive farming produces more food at less financial cost. pesticides may keep food prices down, but there are a disaster for insects. the report says intensive farming is the number one culprit for insect decline, followed by pollution, invasive species and climate change. in the last 50 years, we have been losing insects to pesticides and that has had a large impact on the environment. because insecticides are very persistent. they kill all the grass and soil. butterflies and moths are hardest hit. the number of widespread butterfly species are falling by 58% on farm the england between 2000 and 2009. so many things depend on insects.

in this country we have things like birds, amphibians, mammals, they all eat insects. so if we lost insects, we'd also lose those, in addition to our own food sources. so, yes, absolutely catastrophic impact. the threat to bees is well established. although some species are more resilient than others. environmentalists want action. governments have given way to pressure from farmers and business sell sail these toxic chemicals and they failed to take the action we need to take to reduce the use of pesticides. insects have been thoroughly studied, so the authors of this report have made some assumptions. their findings set a pattern of human impact on the natural world. a world in which one species of insect will almost certainly outlive us humans. a remote russian region has declared a state of emergency over what's been described as a "massive invasion" of polar bears.

there have been reports of the animals entering buildings and attacking residents. caroline rigby reports. imagine opening your front door to this. polar bears aren't uncommon in these parts, but the frequency and these parts, but the frequency and the sheer number of these visitors is unprecedented. entering homes and offices, the animals are also reported to have attacked people. local officials have described the situation as a massive invasion and as the worlds largest land predators, that led them to declare a state of emergency. the remote archipelago in the russian arctic is home to around 300,000 people. 0fficials home to around 300,000 people. officials say around six to ten can regularly be seen in and around a local military garrison. climate change has caused arctic sea ice to

melt and that has driven polybius to spend more time on land in an effort to find food. this change in behaviour has seen an increasing contact and conflict with humans. with the beer is ever more present, some residents are now scared to walk down the street or even leave their homes. polar bears are recognised as an endangered species in russia. hunting is banned. police have tried to scare them off with signals and patrols. even local dogs have had a go. so far, these efforts have had a go. so far, these efforts have proved largely ineffective. now, the federal authorities have promised to send the commission to investigate to control these beautiful but unwelcome visitors a cull has not been ruled out. more on this from rod downey. hejoins me

via webcam full stop it's a remarkable thing to see, how unusual is this? as a result of climate change, the arctic is warming at about twice as fast as the global average. what that means is that not only are there is no less sea ice, but the sea ice is feeding earlier in the yearand but the sea ice is feeding earlier in the year and sewing later. polar bears are spending increasing less time out on the sea ice and less more time on land. they are coming more time on land. they are coming more and more into contact with villages and communities. that's been bad news for people and for polar bears. polar bears are not frightened by humans anymore, but they need to beabsolutely. what we've been doing in the arctic for a number of years is set up polar bear patrols. we are setup helping local

communities to set them up with the tools to drive at these polar bears without using lethal methods. things like vehicles, crackers, alarms, anything to drive the polar bears away without killing them. is a compromise that people can perhaps cohabit with polar bears safely for both? not side by side within the same community, no. pull the bears are extremely dangerous predators. they may look cute and cuddly on tv screens, but they are top predators. they pose a risk to human beings, and to property. the reaction with any community if a polar bear is coming into your home, school or guarding is to ship the polar bear. we need to find a solution and what is becoming increasingly serious issue across the arctic. that's

quite a sentence, isn't in this area of climate change we need to find a solution? there nothing that springs to mind, as there? tackling climate change and stabilising the arctic has to be the first and foremost solution to this. on the ground, increasing the amount of these polar bear patrols we set up and ensuring that children in arctic communities can go to school safely. it's a critical time, both for polar bears and for people in the arctic. as their advice to children if they see a polar bear. do you ignore it, do you stand and stare? you should be able to drive them away before they commence the community. early will detection systems. these infrared thermal cameras and sensors that can identify animals to species level

just by the shape of it. they can tell the direction of travel of that animal by combining that with the mobile phone technology, we can send real—time alerts to the trolls who can go out and find the polar bears and drive them away before the gwent communities. keeping both people and be safe. it's hard to ignore a polar bear. these are both magnificent and very dangerous predators. now let's catch up with the weather forecast for many areas february is entering area of high pressure forecast pressure that is building them towards the south and debate. the position of this will be important for the coming week.

today we are going in not only airflow. it is quite equal direction for it to be coming from but there is a good deal of sunshine around away from northern ireland and western scotland where we are seeing increasing amounts of cloud and outbreaks of patchy rain. temperatures back up to double figures don't towards the five south weather fronts continue to make inroads. some persistent rain for western scotland but down towards east anglia and the five south—east particularly rural spots, we can see patchy frost and some list and fast foot frost. the area of high pressure hasjust drifted outwards the south and the east so our air is drawn up from the south—west. a mild the direction to be coming from. it will be quite a cloudy day without breaks of patchy rain moving into parts of north—west england. we found that a good deal of dry weather and double—digit temperatures. our latest headlines. because of the

uk economy grew at its lowest rate since 2012. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about brexit talks as she says she wants further talks with jeremy corbett. she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbett. horse racing is on hold until wednesday with four new positive test of equine flu. a man arrested in connection with the disappearance of libby squire has appeared in court on unrelated offences. the world is losing insects at an alarming rate. that is according to a global review. sport now on afternoon live with 0lly foster.

england are in control against the west indies, but they've got off to the worst possible start? as a pundit paul scholes has often been very critical of football managers, now he's going to be one? the scheme quite unlucky with the dismissal but one wonders if people get innovative of play for england again. he made it in the first innings and went for 23 in the last five minutes or so. safe to say he has really ta ken five minutes or so. safe to say he has really taken his last chance of being involved in the ashes. that is

why this test is so important. it is elite of 208 at the crease. they are in control but a little bit of a wobble. it is one of four gay tests against ireland in july wobble. it is one of four gay tests against ireland injuly at lord's and then it is the ashes in australia on home soil. so it is an important one. they have already lost a couple of wickets today though. let's talk about manchester united because paul scholes has a newjob. yet he has become a manager. he said he had the opportunity to take the old job as he supported the club as a boy. he said he didn't feel ready to become manager but she does know. he sang an18

manager but she does know. he sang an 18 month deal with all ten stop phil neville, england women's manager didn't do too well and has gone back to being a pundit. david beckham is the only one of that class of 90 to get to be tempted by the dugout. the english football league had to give paul scholes the clear because he has estate in salford city. he said there is no conflict of interest bill. the former england midfielder has signed a deal until the end of next season. so he hasn't said chance of getting into league1 so he hasn't said chance of getting into league 1 and make an instant impact there. there is a potential six nations title decider in just over a fortnight. england looked to

be facing the greatest wales side ever. jonny me had a hat—trick of tries yesterday at twickenham against france. that errant england in other bonus point taking the two points clear of the unbeaten welsh. they made a lot of changes against italy. be played asus quad team that is the modern term, they are the greatest wales team ever. the most wins ina greatest wales team ever. the most wins in a row so it is a great challenge for us. bit of a blow for the scots. rainn wilson will miss the scots. rainn wilson will miss the rest of the tournament after some ligament damage against ireland at murrayfield. you'll find that this evening when a horse racing will resume on wednesday as planned.

for more cases of equine flu have been identified. six horses were found to be infected in cheshire the new outbreak is a new market at the cheltenham festival. just a month away the next step is the crucial one. we were in contact with horses that had been in contact with a horse that had been infected so there was a very tenuous claim to it. i think i not racing over the weekend is a good enough decision to buy time to decide what to do. i think we need to get on. everybody hopes we can because if we don't stack no, when can you? the same thing will be supping it in a week's time so!

thing will be supping it in a week's time so i don't see what else can change. the welsh 0pen snooker is underway in cardiff. john higgins is the defending champion and he's looking in good form. he beat fellow scot graham dott by a fromas to nil in the first round. higgins became the first player to win the welsh 0pen five times last year england still to down on the vite the innings. england still to down on the vite the innings. that's all the sport for now. deputy assistant commissioner richard martin says some suspects could evade arrest if the uk lost access to the european arrest warrant and europol. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford reports. put together in central london, some

of the uk is experts on working with overseas police officers. it has been set up to deal with the possibility that the uk leaves a pathetic deal. in that instance uk forces will lose access to all eu tools that are taking decades to develop advanced use of the method. it goes without saying that these processes a re it goes without saying that these processes are slow and clunky and does not allow this to be as effective and efficient as we are now. please point to the former stephen lawrence suspect who was arrested in spain and brought back using the european arrest warrant. compare that with jack shepherd who was convicted of fitted in georgia.

it could take months to bring him back to the uk. the full—back options are agreements from the 19505. options are agreements from the 1950s. instead of using the european arrest warrant. the new criminal information records system will be replaced by the 1959 convention on mutual assistance in criminal matters. this international claim coordination centre has been set up to deal with the wet kiss in which uk policing loses access to key european tools. it is designed to make the best of the alternative arrangements, them run as smoothly and quickly as possible. but senior officers can see that the system will work to slowly. just over to the commons. about chris grayling is handling of the freight deal. the commons. about chris grayling is handling of the freight dealm

december following a collective government decision and a procurement process we contracted with three shipping companies to provide additional ferry capacity for contingency planning for an ordeal. let me start by saying that in the event of an ordeal brexit the government priority is to ensure a smooth operation between dover and the channel tunnel. the applet putting in place measures to deal with this. that is why we agreed a contract worth around £100 million with it in a million going to dfes and brittany ferries across seven separate writs built into those plans were options to add on other companies should they be required. this was to guarantee the smooth flow of some key goods into the uk. it is what remained in the house

that in the event of an ordeal this capacity would be sold on to hauliers carrying capacity or priority goods. the department for transport entered into contact with seaborne freight to provide ferry services between ramsgate and 0stend. at the time of the award we knew the about a start—up business. however the shorter distance between the two ports meant that the rich could provide us with shortjourney times at lower cost of making it a potentially attractive part of the package. see point part of this was backed by ireland's biggest shipping company. for commercial reasons i am not able to mention involvement to the support for the proposition from the support for the proposition from the outset pervaded confidence in the outset pervaded confidence in the availability of this deal. the company told me the intended delay

or confirm that the seaborne plans where both viable and deliverable. these assurances include it clear evidence about the formal steps that seaborne had ta ken evidence about the formal steps that seaborne had taken to secure that is however releasing this information could have it turn up the cost of the vessels and even resulted in them being removed from the market. i therefore had to refrain from saying anything publicly about this to date. my department monitored the progress of seaborne in meeting its commitments. they had secured firm options for ships however late last week despite previous assurances article shipping with two they're backing from seaborne. in later this i took the decision to terminate

this contract. may decided to put too many issues to resolve in the time needed to bend the ferries and put into operation. as i have made clear, not a penny of taxpayers money has gone to seaborne. the contract money has gone to seaborne. the co ntra ct we money has gone to seaborne. the contract we agreed are essentially a commitment to block book tickets on additional ceilings after the uk leaves the european union. so we had taken a responsible decision to make sure that taxpayers money is properly protected. i can confirm that the contract with the fds and brittany ferries remain on track. we also have contractual options to replace the seaborne capacity with which on the nazi and this is an option we will be discussing in the coming days. the of this government

is to secure deal with the eu but we will continue to make additional contingency plans. that is the right thing to do. what began as a tobacco has descended into a white hole part. this minister is rewriting the textbooks for ministerial incompetence. i repeatedly warned that this was the wrong decision at the time yet he chose to ignore these warnings. he told the house la st these warnings. he told the house last month that this procurement was done properly. it has emerged that the took short cuts on the seaborne freight procurement. the deal was signed off by a subgroup of a subgroup the procurement assurance board never looked at it. he points the finger at arklow but isn't this

a distraction from this decision? he has produced a letter a month after it was saint that doesn't prove anything about due diligence. he said the seaborne contact was about responsible stewardship of public money. sadly the opposite is true, yet again. his decision to award the contract to seaborne. his personal intervention to hold the vote last thursday has compounded those losses. two days later he pulls the plug on seaborne leaving the council i jay with mounting plug on seaborne leaving the council ijay with mounting losses. tax payers face a legal bill so can she

say how much cancelling the contract will cost the taxpayer and specifically the costs incurred in his own department? he simply cannot keep blaming others for his own mistakes stop this decision sits squarely with him. this transport secretaries approach to transport and contingency planning is off the richter scale of incompetence. and for the good of the nation and for the sake of some semblance of faith being restored to this shambolic government, shouldn't he know do the decent thing and go? the honourable gentleman brings a new meaning to the word hogwash. he clearly wasn't

listening when i said we have spent no money on this contract. my department is doing a lot of work on your deal preparations, that is the prudent thing to do but we have not spent any money on this contract. the contract was assured by my officials and officials in the treasury. from the managing director of arklow shipping, which has operations in rotterdam and ireland. article shipping has been working with seaborne to develop new freight services between uk and continental europe arklow shipping is therefore familiar with seaborne agreements with the government to provide additional capacity in the event of

an ordeal basis. in support of the current proposals to develop the shipping between ramsgate and 0stend they tend to provide equity finance and an equity state seaborne which will be the operating entity of the project. seaborne is a firm that brings together capable shipping professionals. i consider seaborne supplies to facilitate trade following the uk is department from the eu both viable and deliverable. i will be working with the team at seaborne to ensure they have appropriate support from arklow shipping. enough said that is chris grayling defending his decision and his opposite saying that it was a whitehall farce. it was off the

richter scale of incompetence the choice of seaborne with no ships or trading history. so that is chris grayling the fizzing in question in the house of commons. it is one of the driest places on earth — and the most recent drought saw the community of turkana in northern kenya reach crisis point — with wells and rivers too dry or salty to provide drinkable water. the animal welfare charity spana stepped in — and has just completed work on a solar—powered borehole — it now serves more than four thousand people from four villages.. and also 15,000 animals — may of which the locals depend on for their livelihoods. the problem here was that lives were at risk? yes they had no rain for

three years and 500,000 animals had died asa three years and 500,000 animals had died as a result. what we did was to build a solar powered borehole to provide fresh water one. it provides water for provide fresh water one. it provides waterfor animals provide fresh water one. it provides water for animals and people and to reduce his workload of collecting water which has particularly helped local women and children who were heavily involved in that. three. it is improved the water quality. there has been a massive improvement in health ins people and animals. and fourthly we set up a veterinary clinic. and finally this is really good, they can hand it to the local community and so there is no water

management committee who collect monthly payments from all villages from internet. stop. traditionally fairly late diesel engines had been used in this and the uc solar power in an area with concerts and sent why is this anything? spana got involved in this and said, these diesel ones don't work. why don't they work? the carrot afford the diesel to make them run. i saw a number of the diesel power that don't work. it is totally the locals who look after this themselves and i think this is what international development is all about. spana this

is one of the projects of working with the animals. 0nce is one of the projects of working with the animals. once the animals are fitter and healthier at the local economy picks up. yes a quarter of a billion people rely on animals for their live with it the next livelihood. one of the most important bit is community training, teaching owners of animals had to better look after their animals. we operate in 25 countries around the world, and i have seen it operate successfully. the issues in some countries are no minuscule. what criteria do you have when you pick the country for a project like this? physically we are expanding at the moment and we are looking at more countries. we run emergency projects as well and this is one of the

emergency projects. a local department told us about a number of animals that had died and the people that have been affected by it. the ice if i could get involved. it is a fantastic, successful, long—term project. how long does a solar power borehole work? for a long time. the committee that has been set up is fantastic and they are collecting small sums of money to make sure they can maintain this for years to come. and they won't need this input from us any more. talking about animal health, equine flu, notjust the uk, but it a problem. one of the countries we work in, morocco, we

had around a thousand animals affected by this. did the same as people are doing in this country. 0ut people are doing in this country. out of those peasant animals one died. it is highly contagious and didn't get animals isolated which is what we're doing in the thank you very much indeed after a turbulent end to a weather last week it is much more settled for the coming week. most places will see a lot of famej weather. it would be quite as windy. temperatures will be complimentary. by temperatures will be complimentary. by thursday many places will feel springlike. dissent an area of high pressure and the position of this high pressure will give a different

feel to the better. we are joining in orderly winds but having said that we are seeing seeing crisp sunshine but as the week goes on we do up my other airfrom the south—west. but more cloud in northern ireland and scotland and a little breezy here but away from that a good deal of sunshine with temperatures back into double figures in the south and west. 0ur weather fronts continue to make inroads and away from that and into east anglia and the south—east it is clear, we the a patchy frost in some rural spots is a misty fog in the morning. drifting towards the south—east during a air from the south—west and the amount of direction to be coming from. there will be more cloak around on tuesday, and breezy, a weatherfront

moving into western scotland and sinking into northern england. it will fizzle out but madly across the board temperatures in double figures. across aberdeen temperatures are up to around 12 celsius. heading into thursday we see a subtle change. if coming from the south which is drier, as we head through wednesday see the cloud break—up towards the south and east more in the bay of sunshine. workload through western scotland and once again mild with temperatures above average for the time of year. the drier air moving into thursday more of us getting to see sunshine and feeling more springlike. hello, you're watching afternoon live.

today at a. falls in factory output and car production are blamed as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. the chancellor, though, is upbeat. the important thing is that the economy is coming ahead of the 0br's forecast for 2018 and that's in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. don't bet on the races — as four more cases of equine flu are identified, authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume. a stark warning about the fate of the world's insects — they‘ re under threat — and there's a warning that that will affect all of us. the transport secretary defends his handling of a cancelled contract awarded to a ferry company to add extra capacity after brexit.

coming up on afternoon live all the sport. england have lost a couple of wickets in st lucia, but they are still on top. and paul scholes has his first managerialjob, he's the new boss at 0ldham athletic. thanks. and for the weather. were in very more settled spell of weather coming in this week and i can promise you sunshine every day, but temperatures are recovering. by thursday it will feel more springlike for everyone are the details r. thanks, mel. also coming up — we'll have the latest from the russian islands which have declared an emergency — after a mass invasion of polar bears hello everyone — this is afternoon live. a fall in factory output and car production are being blamed for the slowest growth in the uk

economy for six years. growth in 2018 was 1.a%, down from 1.8% the previous year — and the lowest since 2012. and according to the estimates, december was a particularly bad month. the chancellor remains upbeat saying the economy is "fundamentally strong", as andy verity explains. this telford manufacturer takes metal parts for everything from gateposts to lorries to streetlights and coats them in zinc. in 2018, as for many british companies, business was slower than we liked. 0rders started dropping in the spring and for the rest of the year, that got worse. as it became obvious the economy was slowing down, the pound dropped in value, meaning we needed more pounds to buy raw materials in dollars or euros. cost pressures for us in 2018 were mostly due to rising zinc costs. zinc is our largest raw material used within a factory and it used to coat all of our components. as a double whammy for our customers, with rising steel prices, this proved very difficult for us in 2018. we also experienced a high turnover

of staff which has had a negative impact on our efficiency. manufacturing has often struggled when other sectors have done well. for most of the year, the services part of the economy, everything from warehousing to shops to haircuts was keeping the economy going. the important thing is the economy is coming ahead of the 0br's forecast for 2018. that's in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. so, a robust performance for the uk economy in 2018 which is all the more remarkable given the uncertainty around the brexit process. while the economy was still growing at the end of 2018, even the services part of it wasn't growing by much. this chart shows how much slower the economy is growing by now compared to the past. in the last three months of 2018, it was up byjust 0.2%, slower growth than most economists

expected. these official figures show that the economy shrank in december by 0.a% and it was down in construction, in production and in the crucial services sector that makes up most of the economy. they have to treat these numbers with a degree of caution, but according to these official estimates, that's the first time that's happened since 2012. the figures have led some economists to fare that is why the rest of the world economy is slowing down, in the uk it's hitting the brakes harder and the bank of england has said brexit‘s related uncertainty is likely to be one reason that's happening. the bank of england made a big point about uncertainty really affecting business sentiment and consumer confidence. so, the longer that uncertainty lasts, the potential, the greater the potential for damaging investment and consumer spending. what households can buy with their money has been growing recently but that's only sustainable if the economy grows, too. before the financial crash, the average economic growth was more

than twice what these figures show. the prime minister and the labour leaderjeremy corbyn look set to hold further talks over brexit. but theresa may has rejected one ofjeremy corbyn's five demands for backing a brexit deal — keeping the uk in a permanent customs union. mrs may is trying to find a way out of the political impasse over brexit, with the uk's departure date of march 29th just over six weeks away. she's due to make a statment to mps tomorrow. here's our political correspondent nick eardley. the painstaking process of trying to deliver brexit continues. searching for compromise in brussels and trying to build support at home. for a long time jeremy trying to build support at home. for a long timejeremy corbyn has had little to agree with the government on. after he set out his conditions we re on. after he set out his conditions were backing a deal, the prime

minister wants to talk. in a letter to mr corbyn, theresa may says she wa nts to to mr corbyn, theresa may says she wants to discuss changes to the brexit deal to avoid a hard border in ireland. she pledges not to sacrifice workers' rights or environmental protections and hence that funding for community is left behind. the sticking point is whether to join behind. the sticking point is whether tojoin a behind. the sticking point is whether to join a customs union. number 10 says it can't agree and ministers are dismissive of labours idea. it's very clear from the eu that non—eu members do not have a say in eu trade policy, so to pretend that we could do so is a dangerous delusion. much of what jeremy corbyn has put forward has a tinge of un—realism about it. i think the prime minister's letter will flush him out on some of those issues. labour says there is a basis for discussion but once the government to move further. now it looks like they could be some progress, but also she has to

guarantee a permanent customs union and is not obvious she is prepared to go down that line yet. there isn't a sudden outbreak of agreement on brexit, there are still real differences, not least on that idea of joining differences, not least on that idea ofjoining a customs union. jeremy corbyn is not about to sign on the dotted line and back at the prime minister's plans. theresa may needs as many votes as she can get. this membrane provide some cover for labour mps to get onside. we estimated somewhere between a0 to 60 who are actively looking to support this at the moment. at the labour party were then too wet for that, she would find the majority that she would need. work to find consensus and compromise continues, but there isa and compromise continues, but there is a long life remember. the transport secretary chris grayling has defended his departments decision to axe its no—deal brexit contract with seaborne freight — a ferry company which had no ships, after the irish company backing the deal pulled out. in the last half an hour, mr grayling has been

taking questions from mps in the house of commons on the subject. 0ur political correspondent, alex forsyth is at westminster. there has been questioning since the beginning of this contract. this was pa rt beginning of this contract. this was part of the government is planning for a new deal brexit set that comes to pass it could mean there is a real congestion on the dover to calais shipping rate. the government have been looking to provide some extra capacity and provided sadism contracts, one of them to this company seaborne. this will provide extra ships to run from ramsgate to 0stend. it later emerged that this company had no ships, the government said that it knew that and that it was a start—up business and it had the backing of a very large and established irish company. for that reason the government felt confident that it could get up and running in time. very recently play the irish

company has withdrawn the backing to seaborne and the contract between the government and seaborne, which was worth £13.a million has been terminated. chris grayling was summoned to the house to answer questions. this is what he said. despite previous assurances the irish company withdrew the backing from company mac. in light of their to terminate his contract. my department concluded there were no too many to major commercial issues. any time needed to bring and put into operation. as i have repeatedly made clear, not a penny of taxpayer's money has gone or will go to seaborne. the contracts we agreed with the three ferry companies are essentially commitment to block book tickets on additional ceilings after the uk leaves the european union. we

are taking a responsible decision to make sure taxpayer money is protected. various thing that none of this money has gone to see bit. it does not stop questions about his handling of this affair. today it was labour's shadow cancer transport secretary who was saying that chris grayling should resign. what began asa grayling should resign. what began as a tobacco has now descended into as a tobacco has now descended into a whitehall farce. this minister is rewriting the textbook for ministerial incompetence in office. i repeatedly warned the secretary of state that this was the wrong decision at the time, as that industry. he chose to ignore those warnings. he told the house last month that this procurement was done properly. it has since emerged that the dft took short cuts on the

seaborne procurement. the deal was signed off by a subgroup. the procurement assurers bird never looked at it. he points the finger at the irish company for the contract consolation. is it really a good time to further insult the irish. they said that their decision to pull out was sudden. and the due diligence had been done on seaborne before this contract was awarded. ensuring there is enough extra freight capacity in the event of a new deal brexit, despite this contract with seaborne having been cancelled. as yet of the word? to put it bluntly, no. if you cast your mind back to the introduction of rail timetables which cause an awful lot of passenger disruption and delay, he was the man who was in

charge and oversaw that introduction at the time. he said there were problems with the network companies and network rail that he was taking control of the stop that compounded with this, there are some critics and political opponents smell an opportunity to put chris grayling on the back. that's why we've seen him summoned to the commons today. number 10 was asked about the seller and we were told that the prime minister has full confidence in the transport secretary. that normally means only one thing.|j transport secretary. that normally means only one thing. i let her be thejudge of that. means only one thing. i let her be the judge of that. you're watching afternoon light. a 2a year old man has appeared at hull magistrates court on charges of voyeurism, outraging public decency and three counts of burglary. he was remanded in custody. pawel relowicz is the man arrested in relation to the search for libby squires — the student who went missing 11 days ago.

the charges aren't connected to her disappearance, but he remains a person of interest. 0ur correspondent alison freeman has more from hull. he appeared in court very briefly this morning to face five charges. as you say, pawel relowicz is the man who has been questioned by police over the disappearance of missing student libby squire. she has been missing for around 11 days now after a night out in the city with friends. she got a taxi home to her student accommodation, but failed to go inside. she was then seen on the streets nearby her home, but hasn't been seen since. now, the charges faced by pawel relowicz are completely unrelated to libby squire's disappearance. speaking through an interpreter, he gave not guilty pleas to all five charges those charges are one of voyeurism, one of outraging public decency and three of burglary. all of those charges are said to relate to offences which are alleged to have taken place between december 2017 and january of this year. as i say, those charges

are unrelated to the disappearance of libby squire. he denies all the charges and he will next appear at hull crown court on the 11th of march. you're watching afternoon live, these are our headlines: a fall in factory output and car production are blamed — as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. the transport secretary defends his handling of the cancelled no—deal brexit contract with a ferry company which had no ships. england have a lead of insulation. the closing and a half century. england on 100 8a2. paul scholes has his first managerial job,

england on 100 8a2. paul scholes has his first managerialjob, the former manchester and england boss is now at 0ldham manchester and england boss is now at old ham athletic. manchester and england boss is now at 0ldham athletic. john higgins is through to the second round of the welsh open. winning four frames to zero. insects first appeared on earth hundreds of millions of years ago, and have evolved into the most numerous species on the planet. but a major new scientific study has found that more than a0% of those species are vanishing fast, with an extinction rate eight times that of mammals, birds or reptiles. the use of pesticides and fertilisers, and the conversion of land to urban areas, are partly to blame. the study warns the consequences for the planets ecosystems could be catastrophic. 0ur environment analyst roger harrabin reports. fields how many of us would like

them to look. wild flower meadows abuzz with insects. scenes like these have virtually disappeared because intensive farming produces more food at less financial cost. pesticides may keep food prices down, but they are a disaster for insects. the report says intensive farming is the number one culprit for insect decline. followed by pollution, invasive species and climate change. in the last 50 years we have been using pesticides and insecticides and this has a large impact on the environment. these pesticides are the killer grass and the soil. moths and butterflies are hit the hardest. are so many things depend on insects, so in this country we have things like birds, amphibians, mammals all of these eat

insects. if we lose and sex, we also lose these. as well as our food sources. an absolutely catastrophic impact. is threat to peace is well—established. some species more resilient to others. environmentalists want action. governments have given away pressure and failed to take action they need to take to reduce the use of pesticides. insects have been thoroughly studied so the authors of this report had made some assumptions. their findings are still fit a pattern of human effects on the natural world. earlier we spoke to simon leather who's professor of entomology at harper adams university. he explained why we need to make immediate changes to the ways we live and eat in order to solve the issue. it certainly painting a very

dramatic picture. as someone who can remember lots of insects in the past, flying into windscreens and things, i do agree that insects do seem things, i do agree that insects do seem to be a lot less common than they were when i was a lad. i think it would be unfair to point at all at pesticides and farmers, i think we need to point to the decline towards all humans really. 0ur population growth and the will be fragmented, the habitats and just the way be lives. study three or four years ago suggested that motor traffic was killing billions of moths and butterflies and bees in the united states every year. that's a pretty big impact. we've talked many times about the impact of climate change, presumably that is pa rt climate change, presumably that is part of that as well? yes, climate

change is going to affect distributions. it's going to affect success of those insects that require cold periods. it's going to make other insects have to shift their ranges, the moisture and temperature conditions become unsuitable for them and their current locations. if they have nowhere to move, if the habitats have been fragmented, they're going to be really big trouble. some will say that a world without mosquitoes, flies and cockroaches is necessarily a bad thing, but there are consequences that have been described as cas dystrophic? yes it's all interlinked. some people think it's ok not have mosquitoes, etc. we don't have enough entomological training at schools or universities and people don't really realise how important insects are to the world. for example, to give you

an example of how per training could be. we are the only university in the uk that teaches entomology as a subject at undergraduate level and we have a masters course in sustainable crop protection to help people to understand how to work with insects when producing food. there are too few of that type of course around. and in the next stage, those animals that feed on insects, that come your way pet of other species? that again is one of the problem is that conservation issues and ecological issues are all coming from the top down. looking at things like pandas, the large charismatic mammals. rather than looking at what's underpinning everything, the foundations of the world, the soil level, the insects that live above and below the soil and interact with clients and provide food stuff for there was a large charismatic birds and mammals.

should approach be, nature has a weird of sorting these things out, or do we need to do something now? no, we definitely need to be doing something though. we need to be thinking of ways to live much more alongside those insects and those other important organisms. the soil microbes for example. i think it's too easy to think that we can solve it with robotic pollinators. we need to be thinking, how manage to live any sustainable way and still produce food and still have so to live without those insects, without the microbes are supporting insects we re the microbes are supporting insects were not going to have a very nice existence. the british horseracing authority is to confirm this evening whether racing will resume later this week — after the sport was put on hold because of an outbreak of equine flu. four more cases have been identified at a second yard in newmarket. six horses were found to be infected

in cheshire last week. we have beenjoined by the bbc‘s racing correspondent cornelius lysaght. the announcement which isn't going to come until possibly 11 o'clock tonight is eagerly anticipated. as of the talk of the time since last thursday. no racing since last thursday. no racing since last thursday. for the jump racing community that is a important part of the year at the cheltenham festival is due to start one month tomorrow. donna became's team had the original positives and no in newmarket. the sport and the industry at as a whole is crossing its fingers that racing could resume on wednesday. nothing to link those two yards specifically as one is

flat and one isjumping. this is an endemic disease. the chatter on twitter is that the more your tears, the more you're going to find positives? that's certainly one theory. it's important though, your initial point. there is no connection, no obvious connection, between the two different locations. that is reasonably comforting news. the other bit of comforting news is that one of the tunnel became's horses which tested positive went to the races and race last week. those connected to them had been tested and there aren't any positive results on that front. i think the sport is quietly optimistic that things may get back to normal on wednesday. we are talking about a

sport that has a lot of money out there and a lot of money at stake out there on this? the horse racing industry is one of the biggest industries in the country. 18,000 people are said to any living within the sport or very close to it. there are 1a,000 racehorses, clearly racehorse trainers have clients and jockeys and staff. there are various other peripheral industries. racecourses are businesses. they have their peripheral industries as well on the side of them. and of course, the betting industry. this isa course, the betting industry. this is a very important product for it. there are a lot of people holding their breath to an extent. at the moment we are looking at six days off. six days off in february is something that the sport has been able to deal with is often the weather can be very bad at this time of year, snow and frost can cause

cancellations. 0n of year, snow and frost can cause cancellations. on this occasion it something quite different, forfive or six days people are coping, but if it continues much longer the headaches will get much greater. were talking about horses that have all been vaccinated in these cases. the fear is presumably that once a get out into unvaccinated horses and spread in another way... you need to look at the importance of ireland and all of this, if the stars to be concerned they are, we really have a problem? interesting that you mention ireland. news from the ireland horse racing regulation authority stating and a few minutes ago that the british horses will be able to race in ireland. that news adjuster from ireland. that's able to race in ireland. that news adjusterfrom ireland. that's a plus point perhaps. the british race —— the british horseracing authority which has been testing over the last few days has said that its decision, taken few days has said that its decision, ta ken swiftly on few days has said that its decision, taken swiftly on wednesday night to

shut down the industry, shut in the sport for time was exactly what was needed to contain it. the evidence so far is that apart from the donald mccain and the new market positives and there aren't any other positives. critics will be claiming its overreacted, but they are claiming they've done the right thing. an announcement event 11pm tonight. time for a look at the weather. rear pillar lights. it looks like something out of et, but they're actually a rare phenomenon this was taken in canada. they are created, they are an optical illusion and created when tiny ice crystals are suspended in the air near to the ground and they reflect light such

as sunlight, or streetlight. the flat edges of these tiny ice c rysta ls flat edges of these tiny ice crystals act like matters. that's how we get this beam —like effect. quite petty. nothing quite so read is that, but it does feel as if it's been a long time since we've seen anything a little bit warmer. it seems like spring already. this time last year it was very different. we abigail's on friday so it has felt very cold. this week is turning a little more settled. by thursday, even you will notice a difference. some lovely scenes out there, we have blue sky in many areas. we are seeing some blossom as well, it feels very different. calmer conditions around. even western scotla nd conditions around. even western scotland has some sunshine spells. turning a little more hazy this afternoon. and he was cumbia, beautiful sunshine spells here. will it be all right in westminster? i

will pass that on. he better gives a forecast. it settled. we have this area of high pressure that is building down towards the south and the west. the possession of this high pressure will dictate how our weather feels as we head through the coming week. a northerly wind coming on today so it still felt quite cold milled airdrying up on today so it still felt quite cold milled air drying up in the south—west. that cloud increasing a little bit, turning sunshine hazy for north—west scotland and north—west ireland. we make this some outbreaks of patchy rain as we head onwards this evening. temperatures not too bad for the southern half of the uk. aberdeen we re southern half of the uk. aberdeen were still looking at mid—to single figures. there will be a big difference there as we head to chelsea. tonight the benefit bring outbreaks of rain for northern ireland and scotland and make further roads eastward. patchy rain. clear skies moving down towards anglia and the far east. rural spots in particular will have a touch of frost. he is a area of high pressure

drifted out a little to the south—east. that is allowing this south—westerly flow. an elder heir to work its way. there will be quite a lot of cloud associated with it. we will see further outbreaks of patchy rain to the north—east of scotland. the high pressure with intent to out. making its way down into north—west england. look at the difference in temperatures. aberdeen seen difference in temperatures. aberdeen seen highs tomorrow of around 12 celsius. into wednesday were still drawing up that south—westerly air, it's still mild. 0ur area dressed slightly out toward the east, were drawing upa slightly out toward the east, were drawing up a southerly flow. through wednesday afternoon, protecting the southern half of the the uk will see little more sunshine. 0utbreaks southern half of the the uk will see little more sunshine. outbreaks of late patchy rain and temperatures well above average for this time of

the year. that rain continues as the through thursday. join up that southerly air, still a mild direction to be coming from. more of us direction to be coming from. more of us will get to see some sunshine as we head through the day on thursday. temperatures like this and many of us temperatures like this and many of us will start to feel like february is turning a little bit more springlike. i'm not promising multiple sunshine but there will be some spells of brightness around from time to time and it will feel very different to this time last week. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. the transport secretary defends his handling of the cancelled no—deal brexit contract with a ferry

company which had no ships. and horse racing is on hold until at least wednesday with four new positive tests for equine flu . a man who was arrested in connection with the disappearance of the university student, libby squire, has appeared in court in hull accused of unrelated offences. the world is losing insect populations at an alarming rate according to a global review this licensees after the barbados and antigua. they started the day 19 fat loss and the 108 a2 at lunch so thatis fat loss and the 108 a2 at lunch so that is the elite of 231, so pretty healthy. jennings was onlyjust

recall to the team but hasn't really taken his recall to the team but hasn't really ta ken his chance recall to the team but hasn't really taken his chance it in his first innings. 23 today. hasn't put much ofa claim innings. 23 today. hasn't put much of a claim for getting into the ashes. it's pretty important for england to sign off with a win from this series. so yes. they're on top but as long as it doesn't rain for two days they should be ok. their supposed goals has been a good pundit. didn't speak at all but an incredible player. has said some

very cutting things about the game, very cutting things about the game, very insightful, but he has turned to management. it supported all done it was always going to bore them, they have approached him he said he wasn't quite ready but he does know. so high she has been signed up for a season and a half. he was a member of the class of 92 at manchester united, ryan giggs and nicky but phil neville the england women's manager, gary neville was chastened by his experience at valencia. but david beckham still doing nicely. the english football league had to rubber—stamp schools getting this job because he is a co—owner in

non—league salford city. because it is only 10% and purely for investment, there is no conflict of interest and she has the go—ahead to be the all—time manager. 0ldham manager. ireland is lifting the ban on british runners and we will see if they will allow racing to resume on wednesday but former cases have emerged of equine flu, with six horses in cheshire last week. the cheltenham festival is just a month away. the next step is the crucial one. is that we were in contact with

horses that had been in contact with the horse that was infected. there was a very tenuous the horse that was infected. there was a very tenuous claim to it but i not racing it was good decision to buy time to decide what to do. i think we need to get on. everybody hopes we can purely because if we don't start now, when can you? the same thing is going to be stopping it in same thing is going to be stopping itina same thing is going to be stopping it in a week's time. if we can't go noi it in a week's time. if we can't go no i don't see what else can change. he won the most recent of his 5a ireland caps in his 60s nations win over scotla nd ireland caps in his 60s nations win over scotland at the weekend. he will link up again with the xl

director of rugby who give him his first ireland cap back in 2009. scotla nd first ireland cap back in 2009. scotland picked up an injury in the buchanan scheme ryan wilson will miss the next game with ligament damage. john higgins is the defending champion higgins became the first player to end by championship five times last year. that is of this portfolio. four further cases of equine flu have been confirmed at the newmarket stables of trainer simon crisford. that takes the total number

of cases of the highly contagious virus to ten. stewart white is in norwich to tell us more about that. rogerjohnson is in salford — he'll be telling us about a visit to liverpool from the family of nelson mandela who is campaigning for a memorial of the former south african president to be built in the city. stewart, four new cases of equine flu have been confirmed all at the stables of trainers simon crisford. how has the home of british horseracing reacted to the news? they have been taking precautions. they have been taking precautions. they are trying to keep horses away from each other so there is no chance of them spreading, so if you've ever been to newmarket where the great sights is to go and see them of training. we did hearfrom simon chris fit stables, all —— chris ford that horses may be mixing

with horses that had been vaccinated. he also says that none of the four horses that had positive tests displayed any clinical signs of respiratory illness. it is interesting. they presumably looked fit for racing. around the tank you have about 3000 horses and about 60 sta bles, have about 3000 horses and about 60 stables, and lots of people involved in the racing industry. there are people in the betting shops, all of those people just waiting for racing to get started again. but, all of them believe that you have to make sure the horses are safe because a newmarket we have some of the best horses in the world. some have been

racing in dubai recently, and the cheltenham festival coming soon also. derek thompson saidlj cheltenham festival coming soon also. derek thompson said i hope we have nip this in the bud. but we don't need to find any more positives. full marks to the animal health trust who have been working za health trust who have been working 24 hours a day and found ten positives but only ten out of about eight or 9000 tests. i hope we are back on the road. newmarket hunting lodges cluster of trainers in the country. it will be waiting to hear if racing is back on but in the meantime be wondering what can be do? the horses are trained to be ready for racing. studs fees are

also very important to the racing industry, the breeding is important and stables are locked and because you cannot take the horses at sta bles for you cannot take the horses at stables for breeding. so everything is on hold to people in newmarket see that everything will be given the go—ahead later this evening. if you get any more positives from the tested it on sunday that we don't know what will happen. we had all keeping ourfingers know what will happen. we had all keeping our fingers crossed. know what will happen. we had all keeping ourfingers crossed. thank you very much roger, nelson's mandela daughter and granddaughter have visited liverpool today to put their support behind plans to build a memorial to honour their late father in the city? there there is an anniversary today

when she was finally released from prison which i wasn't aware of which was back in 1990 on the 11th of february. his daughter and granddaughter were in the back at the site of the memorial to give their blessing to the site and the plans are now under way. it will be a bit to an island. the cylinders represent the oil drums that were used as a garden when he was in prison. in lot of symbolism of this memorial. the community is

passionate about nelson mandela and the palaces did four. five years after his passing away, liverpool once again is remembering this great son of africa. nelson mandela had a special bond with the city yes he did. he was a liverpool supporter. backin did. he was a liverpool supporter. back in 199a when he was elected president of south africa after his release from prison, liverpool were on tour in south africa, and john barnes was one of the pioneer black footballers and she was part of that team, in199a footballers and she was part of that team, in 199a when mandela was elected and liverpool were on tour.

he paused the liverpool players wearing a liverpool top. he was then known as a liverpool fan and john buys over spoke with great reverence about nelson mandela and the impact she had on him. . it is so important that we remember the past so that we can educate those in the future. and that underpins the reason for this memorial. thank you roger — more on that this tonight on bbc north west tonight at 18:30. a sixteen year old boy has gone on trial for the rape

and murder of alesha macphail on the isle of bute last summer. the six year old's body was found in the grounds of a disused hotel injuly. the boy denies this and claims a woman committed the crimes. he also denies attempting to conceal and destroy evidence. a remote russian region has declared a state of emergency over what's been described as a "massive invasion" of polar bears. there have been reports of the animals entering buildings and attacking residents. earlier i spoke to rod downie, who's the chief polar adviser at wwf — i started by asking him how unusual all of this is. as a result of climate change, the arctic is warming at about twice as fast as the global average. what that means is that not only is there less of the ice, but also that the sea ice is freezing earlier in the

year and thawing later. so, polar bears are spending increasingly less time out on the sea ice and more time online. and more time onland. that means they are coming more and more into contact with villages and communities and that spells bad news for both people and polar bears. bad news for polar bears, because they are not frightened by humans anymore and they need be? yes, absolutely. what we've been doing in the arctic for a number of years, we set up polar bear patrols, so were helping to equip local people and communities with the tools that they need to try to drive out the polar bears from these communities using non—lethal methods. alarm is anything we can use to drive them away from the communities without having to kill them. can people cohabit with polar bears? not

side by side in the same community. they are extremely dangerous predators. they may look cute and cuddly that they are top predators and they pose a risk to human beings and they pose a risk to human beings and property, and the reaction within a community of a polar bear coming into your skill, is you pretend to shoot the polar bear. in the light of climate change to address what is becoming an increasingly serious issue across the arctic. we need to paint a solution in the era of climate change. there is nothing that springs to mind? tackling climate change and stabilising the arctic has to be the biggest solution to this, but also underground, increasing the amount of polar bear patrols we have set up ensuring that children in communities can get to

school. is there advice to children what, what is the best thing to do? the best thing to do is to have patrols in place so that they can drive the polar bears away before the coming to the community. but england faces the same problem. they have an early warning detection system have an early warning detection syste m — — have an early warning detection system —— or iceland has an early warning detection system. you can tell the direction of travel of the animaland by tell the direction of travel of the animal and by combining that with mobile phone technology we can have real time alerts to the polar bear little, and drive them away before they reach the community is keeping people safe.

ijust had a tweet saying that if you going to polar bear country make us and if you cannot run as fast as you can. a fall in factory output and car production are blamed — as figures show the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. the transport secretary defends his handling of the cancelled no—deal brexit contract with a ferry company which had no ships. here's your business headlines on afternoon live us china trade talks aimed at resolving the standoff over tariffs are resuming in beijing. there's hope of a breakthrough after chinese officials hinted at purchasing more american products. china's slowing economy has already spilled over into the rest of the world — the uk's lower growth is thought to be partly due

to the global slowdown. philip hammond must commit to billions in extra spending to end austerity , according to a warning from think tank the institute for fiscal studies. it says an extra £5bn a year is needed by 2023 to keep current spending commitments. mike ashley has withdrawn a bid to by the beleagured coffee and cake chain patisserie valerie out of administration. sports direct offered £15m but was told by administrators that it wasn't enough. other companies including costa coffee are thought to be interested in the chain. before we look at the financial markets susannah — you've news of an airline suing a passenger who didn't take one leg of their flight? yes this is apparently a widely used hack for cheaper flights. the german national airline, lufthansa, is pursuing payment the present strategy for lots of

airlines are actually set up so that it costs less for more flights you take. but if people are routinely opting for one flight and taken the first leg and second, and that ruins their pricing strategy. if they have put the money for the tickets then put the money for the tickets then put a difference does it make? they would not be able to offer those cheaper flights to the people who do wa nt to cheaper flights to the people who do want to go those extra legs, and to those people who will actually pay more for the convenience of going

directly. that is their pricing strategy. i spoke to simon calder who explained it earlier. this sense might better take it from atobtoc this sense might better take it from a to b to c costs less and a ticket from a to b, and if you take advantage of it you are breaking the rules. and in this case the airline may suit you. but if you look at the airlines point of view, it does make sense. 0n airlines point of view, it does make sense. on a flight from london to new york with 300 seats, the airline knows that maybe 200 seats will be taken by knows that maybe 200 seats will be ta ken by people knows that maybe 200 seats will be taken by people who want to go from london to new york. to fill the rest it has to add extra legs and it can only do that that if it cut the fear below those prices offered by aer

lingus and klm. so it does make sense to the airlines that some passengers realise what's going on and try to explain the differences and try to explain the differences and fears. in the airlines are getting fed up with it. it is there costing. but people who do tight can get caught out by only taking the second leg and then the entire ticket is vital because it did not turn up for the first leg, so you can get caught out. but it goes for the economy where bleaker than expected. they had seen

a slowdown in growth in the global economy but let's have a look at an a nalyst economy but let's have a look at an analyst at hargreaves lansdown. is this going to brexit uncertainty, global slowdown or a bit of both?l bit of both. is particular when you look at the decline in business investment. there not as much investment. there not as much investment as it is to be because they are not certain what the uk economy is going to look like in six months or a year time full stop the global growth picture is not quite as rosy as it was and it has led to grim reading for the economy across all sectors, especially concerning is the decline in december. we

shouldn't count our chickens just yet because it isjust one month but if that trend continues it could spell a bleak 2019. last week we had the bank of england say they will downgrade their forecast. there have been downgrade for other european economies because of the global slowdown, the backdrop to all of this we have the us china trade talks. is there much talk about possible breakthroughs coming through from the talks in beijing?” think the us china trade is one of the key themes alongside brexit which has been dominating markets over the last year or so. no we saw at the back end of last year, if you

look at the negotiations, they are also up against a deadline, the 1st of march. 0n the 1st of march about 200 billion dollars export, under tires. so they are up against a deadline to. you expect markets to rally because such a negative factors are already factored in. see 100s is higher that is offered in the gtp projections. that's it from your afternoon live team for today, next the bbc news at 5 with huw edwards.

time for a look at the weather. here's mel coles. for many areas it will start to feel more springlike due to this area of pressure. we are drying in a northerly flow with a good deal of sunshine around. away from the ground in scotland where we are seeing outbreaks of rain and cloud. overnight over the fens continue to make inroads and persistent rain for scotland and down towards angry and then what rural spot we will see a patchy frost and mist and fog first thing tomorrow morning. our area of high pressure has drifted out towards the east and air is drawn up from the east, e—mailed a direction to come from. it cloudy day with patches of rain. away from that good

deal of cave weather and double digit today at 5pm, the uk economy grew last year at its slowest rate for 6 years. official figures show it grew by 1.a% last year and there's more bad news forecast. but the chancellor remains upbeat. the important thing is that the economy is coming ahead of the opr forecast for 2018 and that is in the midst of increasing trade tensions around the world. will have the latest detail in reaction for you. the other main stories on bbc news at 5pm... as theresa may and jeremy corbyn exchange views on brexit, sernior conservatives say labour's plans for a customs union with the eu aren't workable. decision time on whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume in the uk after four more cases of equine flu were identified at the weekend.