have been thing but i know you have been keeping a close eye on the uk political situation, and a difficult time for the labour party yesterday. seven members quitting the party. pressure now on the labour leader jeremy corbyn. some people saying this will change everything. others say it doesn't mean much. there is a lot of analysis on happens next. there is an awful lot that could happen. there are comparisons on the 19805, that happen. there are comparisons on the 1980s, that was something they didn't want to draw against. they said they were not too many comparisons. acting for now, a lot of this literature is about brexit. does it change their strategy for brexit? there will be a by—election in wales. we have the death of paul flynn. what happens if labour loses? it could have implications to the brecon strategy. it particular report is saying that if the strategy does alter, as a result of

the split, the result of the by—election, that could alter is position on brexit. there could be changes afoot, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty out there, it is very difficult to see which way it will fall. one of the key aspect isi it will fall. one of the key aspect is i guess to watch here is whether there will be more mps quit the labour party, whether the calls for tory mps to join independence is actually going to make a difference. that's right. not only that, but willie draw votes into the tory party or will it not? some analysis says actually although the labour party is now smaller and less likely to win the next election, some a nalysts to win the next election, some analysts say, no, people are disgruntled, voters who may have voted tory, mabel they will vote independence as well. there is a huge amount of uncertainty. what do people make uk politicians right now? i think they would agree with some of the statements that uk

politics is broken. there is the far left, the hardened far right and the tory party, and the centrists are perhaps waiting for some sort of... is that the space the lib dems have already? they did not do very well in the last election, and many of the lid dems voters thought they sold their sole when they went to the previous election. perhaps there is an empty space in the middle ground that it will be very interesting to see whether these new mps, this new party has the capacity to fill out. let's talk about honda. we are expecting an announcement today. difficult time for the 3500 workers at the swindon factory, but also important to talk about the fa ct also important to talk about the fact it is notjust about the swindon factory workers. for every worker that works there, there are thousands of people involved in the supply chain and other businesses that directly depend on the honda

factory, and it is going to be a devastating blow for all of them. devastating indeed, but in some respect not perhaps particularly shocking. it is one aspect that many people say this is to do with brexit. for instance, we have had g7, sorry, we had fought cutting thousands of jobs, general motors, rather, shattering —— shutting seven applies globally. there is overca pacity applies globally. there is overcapacity in the industry without a doubt. and in europe we had the shop about diesel which has accelerated this as well. certainly accelerated this as well. certainly accelerated the change. and also, the fact that the europe and japan had a freed trade deal, japan can make their cars at home and bring them in libya the idea of tariffs, and that has changed the dynamic as well. even so, many levers will suggest in the uk that this potentially or the brexit uncertainty could have been the

straw that broke the donkey's that and facilitated that. no doubt the uncertainty over brexit is not something carmakers want, because obviously they rely on that trade, they want certainty. however as you mentioned eu japan trade deal only came into force that you days ago and means there will be no tariffs eventually by 2027 on japanese and means there will be no tariffs eventually by 2027 onjapanese cars being sold to the eu. i suppose they we re being sold to the eu. i suppose they were looking at the cost effectiveness of running a factory in europe. precisely. iseem effectiveness of running a factory in europe. precisely. i seem to remember when i studied economics, one of the reasons the car manufacturers came to europe in the first place was because of the quota system because they needed to be able to manufacture in europe in order to sell their cars in europe ina order to sell their cars in europe in a cheaper state. it gets removed, they can manufacture their cars at home. too much capacity in the car industry globally, maybe it makes a more sensible option. they pointed out they are closing, moving production from somewhere in turkey

as well, though it is notjust a uk thing. talking about the prison system. they want to end short prison sentences, sentences under six months because what he is arguing if they don't work and they make things worse and he wants more community sentences, more technology and better alternatives to jail. that goes there very much against what the tories have been about, which is prison is what it is all about. it does go against it, but what he says is nearly two thirds of people that go into short custodial sentences in the reoffending. this newspaper report talks about women, and it does suggest that it is effective. maybe women who are in prison because of sharply being, maybe to provide for their children, and it means they cannot work any

more so and it means they cannot work any more so it makes things worse for the children. then the children are more likely to be offenders. what he argues it you need to look at the root causes as to why people are offending. it looks particularly about people with alcohol problems, they might be better doing programmes that helps deal with that issue. there is effectiveness from those sorts of programmes. there is also talk here about the alternatives. we have heard of tagging for a long time, but those methods are improving, banning travel, banning people from driving. those sorts of unity of measures instead. there is a pushback against it, not everybody agrees with it. they mp said it is idiotic. clearly this is an enormous consensus for this, but it is interesting. let's move on to currencies. this is your thing. tell me. if you are going on holiday this summer, and are issuing you are going somewhere, would you change your currency now or wait it

out and see what happens?” change your currency now or wait it out and see what happens? i might do some now at some later. whether you make that decision, it depends on whether you think there is going to the aid rigs that deal, because if there will be a deal, if we go for a ha rd there will be a deal, if we go for a hard brexit and there is no deal, so it depends which way you think it will go, what ultimately —— this story, britons have been stockpiling euros. have you been stockpiling? i am not allowed to. i will say that my teenage son has kept a few euros in his drawerjust in case. the amounts they are talking about people buying travel money has gone up people buying travel money has gone up about 3%. that is an interesting figure, not enough to really move the pound much on the global exchanges given that trillions go through those exchanges. exchanges given that trillions go through those exchangesm exchanges given that trillions go through those exchanges. it is beyond the eurozone, visitors to turkey, iceland at getting more bang for their buck. yes, but last year

turkey was one of the week is performing currencies in the world and that was related to domestic crisis is. that was not really a sterling story. that is as turkey story. they are looking, this research shows people look at the value of the pound and choose their holiday destinations according to where they can get more value. that is important in terms of decision—making. in terms of the value of the pound, there have been a massive barometer of how the market feels about the brexit situation. it is, and the fact that sterling is relatively sterling —— steady right now, irrespective of the political uncertainty tells the one thing, that the market consensus has always been that we get a deal, and that suggest that if we don't get the deal, the market is in that vulnerable position. this story in the sun, have you ever kissed a sailor? sadly, i have never kissed a sailor. have you ever been kissed like that? i don't think so. reading

the story, what i didn't know about this picture is that the woman he goes on to marry is not the woman he is kissing, who we know is a stranger. the woman who he married in that photo as well. she is smiling. she didn't mind. perhaps it is the heat of the moment. it was an exceptional day, japan surrendered in the second world war. she is looking over his shoulder and smiling. he is married to have a 70 year. such an iconic photo, isn't it? george mendonsa, the new city has died in the paper is carrying the photo, such an iconic photo that so the photo, such an iconic photo that so much. it does indeed. lovely to have you on the programme. thank you so have you on the programme. thank you so much. do stay with us here on bbc news because there is so much more to come. from me and the team, goodbye. hello there. there's a trend for our weather to turn, really, very mild towards the end of this week. what's happening on the big picture

is we're seeing southerly winds develop over the next few days, and those winds will be dragging up all this warm air from the tenerife, 2,000 miles to our south, and pushing it northwards across the uk. there's a question mark how much cloud there's going to be. it certainly looks pretty cloudy for the next few days. but towards the end of the week, as pressure begins to rise, that's where we're most likely to see the cloud break, and given some decent cloud breaks towards the end of the week, where we could see temperatures lift as high as 17 or 18 degrees celsius for a few of us. so, some very warm weather, really, for late february on the way. now, back to today's weather. we do have relatively clear skies at the moment across england and wales. the breeze, though, keeping temperatures up for most of us. a few showers across northern and western areas of the uk, but where we have lighter winds across the south, with those clear skies, we also have some patches of frost out in the countryside, even one or two fog patches as well first thing tuesday morning. so, for the early risers, yes, there will be some fairly chilly weather out there, but a bright start to the day for many of us with some sunshine. those showers across the north—west will probably tend to ease as cloud

builds in later in the day, and we'll start to see some wet weather pushing in across northern ireland during tuesday afternoon. the rain eventually reaching western parts of england, wales and western scotland as well later in the day. it should stay largely dry and bright for east anglia, south—east england and also across the north—east of scotland with temperatures into double figures. it will be a mild day. through tuesday night, the rain continues to push its way northwards and eastwards. it's going to be a milder night with temperatures between say around 7 and 10 degrees celsius, but rain quite persistent, really, and quite heavy at times across the north—west. might take us on into wednesday's forecast, and we do have low pressure with us. notice the winds are coming up from a south—westerly direction, so it will be mild, but we'll have rain at times. the wettest of the weather always likely across north—western areas of the country. as the rain tries to move eastwards, it will tend to weaken as it bumps into that building area of high pressure. so there won't be much rain in the forecast for this week across east anglia and south—east england. that's probably where we'll have the best of any brightness around. there are signs that thursday should

start to brighten up with the best of any sunshine most likely to the east of high ground. so, perhaps the midlands. eastern areas of england not doing too badly, and eastern areas of scotland. but in the north—west, still quite a bit of cloud, still the threat of a little bit of rain across the western isles, but those temperatures are beginning to rise, and by friday, with a bit more sunshine around, it's then that we could see temperatures go as high as 18 degrees. that's your weather. good morning, welcome to breakfast, with louise minchin and dan walker. our headlines today. fears for the future of the uk car industry, as honda is expected to confirm this morning it's to close its factory in swindon. after seven labour backbenchers quit to set up a new independent group, two conservatives are considering joining them. soaring above the skies of wales. could golden eagles be about to return 200 years after they were hunted to extinction? manchester united dump holders chelsea out of the fa cup. the 2—0 win boosting

ole gunnar solskjaer‘s hopes of making hisjob permanent. good morning, a chilly start than yesterday, but a