hello. it has been a mixed picture this is bbc news, i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12. to start the day today. many of us three cabinet ministers demand david, you first, but before you had a bright start. earlier, we saw brexit is delayed if parliament a nswer fails to approve a deal david, you first, but before you answer the question, did we make beautiful sunrise in argyll and in the coming days — anything new last week or did we bute, the rising sun illuminating some in the party just break things? i was enjoying the cloud. to the west, a weak say they should go. weather front has been working the rules on collective the idea of french people listening, across northern ireland into western responsibility are very clear and if saying it was 50 days to go till b scotland. in the south, dense ministers or cabinet ministers can't support the government's position day, thinking they might think it patches of fog causing a few then they have to resign. was appropriate. it is difficult to problems on the road. some tell whether something gigantic or cancellations for flights at london nigerians go to the polls to choose new has happened as a result of the their president and parliament — city airport. the milky weather is independent group. a lot of people in the biggest election taking the time to clear and lift in african history. thought it felt different. there are across south—eastern england. the sun comes up across south—eastern england. the the singer r kelly is due incredible hurdles for any new party sun comes up for most of us. the to appear in court in chicago to face before it can be politically weather clearing in northern ireland, but a bit of rain for after being charged with ten counts of sexual abuse, some successful, but i think the feeling scotland. for most of us, dry and involving underage girls. was that the manner in which it first—time buyers return in greater happened, the way in which those bright day, with sunshine, and one numbers to the property market — despite the soaring people did it, their savviness in for the time of year. temperatures cost of deposits. could reach 18 celsius in the south. in rugby — can wales make it not coming up with a whole set of to put it in context, that is around a record 12 wins in a row? policies immediately meant it they take on england nine or 10 degrees above normalfor in the six nations in allowed the possibility of other the time of year. it is the kind of things to happen. the other thing i cardiff this afternoon. temperatures we would normally expect in late may, not late february. the six nations rugby is think it has done is it has put

significant pressure on one part of on, france hosting scotland in the political establishment — the france, and while hosting england in leader of the labour party, who as cardiff. the weather looks similar for both matches. dry with sunshine, we know has probably been in favour of britain all his life not being temperatures around 14 celsius at pa rt of britain all his life not being part of the eu, and was very kick—off. overnight, though it may lu kewa rm part of the eu, and was very lukewarm about the referendum. it has probably put a lot of pressure start cold, we will see cloud moving on him to trim to the remain side and put pressure then on theresa m, start cold, we will see cloud moving in, sub—mistand start cold, we will see cloud moving in, sub—mist and fog patches as may, or not give support to theresa well. 2—5dc in towns and cities, may, or not give support to theresa may ina may, or not give support to theresa may in a deal or no deal situation. colder in this countryside, a few white before we get to all of that, patches of dan mike frost. though looking forward, they talked, all of sunday starts off on a cold note, them, on leaving with a big slam of them, on leaving with a big slam of the wins —— a few patches of frost. the door, they talked about the far left taking over labour, and on the tory side, the far right taking over plenty of sunshine for scotland, the conservative party. is that england and wales, and clear blue people who have to exaggerate to skies for many through the escape velocity or is it true? afternoon. northern ireland may hold onto more cloud top temperatures still mild, 11—16dc. they certainly feel that corbyn‘s onto more cloud top temperatures still mild, 11-16dc. a onto more cloud top temperatures still mild, 11—16dc. a shade down on what we will have this afternoon. on ta keover of they certainly feel that corbyn‘s takeover of the labour party would

monday, high pressure stays in place have been unimaginable at any time for most of the uk, a weak weather front bringing rain across parts of in the last 50 years. the the hebrides, highland scotland, orkney and shetland. away from the anti—semitism row has been a symptom far north, and sunny day. it stays of that, a very malign symptom of on the mild side, though it. i likewise think that the temperatures are drifting down a little. conservative leave supporters, who we re conservative leave supporters, who were passionate about what they thought was happening to the party, i think they envisaged a situation whereby if and when theresa may goes, given the proclivities of the current membership of the conservative party, that it is pretty likely that that party would also be taken over by somebody from what we might once have regarded as the fringes. what is your take on all of this? does the party structure look more fragmented, more european? i think it reflects what is happening across the world. old structures, all party structures,

are no longer working. specifically, i think, are no longer working. specifically, ithink, in are no longer working. specifically, i think, in relation to britain, i think we've got two parties with two leaders that are not charismatic, that are basically, certainly with theresa may, when she first got elected, amongst all of the candidates who were running for leadership, she was the one who had most experience, being minister, and she was known for being detail oriented. it reminded me ofjimmy carter, because the president of the united states right before ronald reagan came in, and jimmy carter also was very detail oriented, but once he took over, he could not really command that attention of his owfi really command that attention of his own constituents. and at the end of the day, what brought him down was that the democratic party was not standing behind him. and withjeremy corbyn as well, i think you see this thing of extremism within all of the

politics taking over. it's interesting. in 2014, when four members of the all parliamentary group, led by jack members of the all parliamentary group, led byjack straw, visited iran, when they came back, i was looking for interviews with all of them and none of them gave us an interview except jeremy corbyn. why? because he thought, . .. interview except jeremy corbyn. why? because he thought,... he has been paid by press tv, and he has that shadow over him. the labour party has a long way to go. jeffrey, do you see this as being about individuals, or is this about a kind of broken system? i am clear that the system is broken. it doesn't represent the mainstream of britain on the left of the right, and certainly not in the centre. the independent group, i agree with david, it was smart of them to create a group without policies and

an agenda, because they need time. on newsnight, they were being beaten up on newsnight, they were being beaten up because they didn't know one day one what they stood for. i think this represents a complete dysfunction and disintegration of the traditional system. where it takes us, history would suggest that it is hard for a romp like the independent group to make it in the first past the post system, which does not make it easy for a third or fourth or fifth party to actually win against all the others when the votes are divided. all the old rules don't apply. if you look at bernie sanders in the last us election, these kind of insurgencies, particularly in social media, and fuelled by the anger and disaffection of tories under theresa may, and the labour party under corbyn, i think anything is possible. what we can all agree is

that predictions are dangerous at this point. but that is what i will ask everyone to do. i started by saying, what are we going to break this coming week? we have seen three cabinet ministers this weekend saying that a no—deal brexit needs to be avoided, and if necessary, there must be delay, a warning that they may vote against their own government. what do you think will happen? it will be a significant phase in british politics. defections in mature democracies are rare, so what has happened does not happen everyday. i remember very well what happened in the 1980s when the gang four left the labour party and form the sdp. it didn't go too farand had to and form the sdp. it didn't go too far and had to merge with the liberals become the liberal democrats, and they have progressed a great deal. there is an opportunity, depending on which inclinations ultimately prevail, for the independent group, because they

are talking about occupying the middle ground. joining up with the liberal party. if that happens, and there is a consolidation in the middle ground, that could take them forward. how much forward, we will have to wait and see, because there seems to be a common ground, not only in occupying the middle ground, but also in —most of them being remainers. all of them, if i am not mistaken, r. joining up with the liberal party, which is 100% remain, would i think pose an interesting proposition. we are definitely into new ground as far as well politics is concerned. i do believe that if there is a failed brexit process, i think more people could join this group, and there could be a bigger rump than their race. we will leave that group for the time being, because we need to get through the next few weeks before we even get to a future. you have neatly

sidestepped my question. i will make david answer it. what will happen in the next week? yes. we have these three cabinet ministers putting a letter in the newspaper this weekend, and they are signalling they are not going to have a no—deal brexit. there are significant numbers of conservatives, including cabinet members, who have let it know that it known overtly that if the conservative party suggests a no—deal brexit, they will resign the party altogether, depriving theresa may of her majority, and presumably allowing a majority to form in parliament quite easily for a rejection of no deal, and our request, which i think the government will —— my and a request, which the government will be forced to ask for and which the eu would be likely to give for an extension, and we could come back in a few months

and have this conversation again. we could come back in a few months and have this conversation againm you have to predict, i agree. i think the model continues, and god help us, we are sitting at this table three months from now when things have not progressed much. the question of sharm el sheikh this weekend, when the cabinet ministers wrote the letter, they said, if there is no deal in the next few days, she is talking in sharm el sheikh. .. days, she is talking in sharm el sheikh... grate she won't get any more out of them. how many more times do you have to go to brussels to get kicked ? times do you have to go to brussels to get kicked? they are not moving. pa rt to get kicked? they are not moving. part of the reason is that they know that whatever they agree to with her, she can't necessarily deliver it. why would they? it won't happen. her strategy of brinksmanship and playing out the clock, which plays into the brexit eras, the 60 members of the european research group, is not working, because what we see instead is the remainers, as the clock ticks down, are saying, wait a minute, now it's getting serious. we can no longer sit and wait for her

to solve this. she is not going to solve this. my better angels round this table over the last few years, think maybe we all underestimated her and she is really going to do it, but it is over. it is not going to happen. maybe i will eat my words, but i am saying on television, i cannot imagine history being kind to her. let us leave the brexit discussion for this week at this point. to india and pakistan now. it was the deadliest attack in a 30—year insurgency. on 14th february a young man who grew up in the indian—administered part of kashmir rammed a car full of explosives into a military convoy, killing 46 troops. india was quick to accuse pakistan of helping the bomber. what options are there for revenge? ashis, you have just

ashis, you havejust come back from india. what is the mood? pretty jingoistic in india at the moment. the ruling dispensation has not discouraged such feelings. this stems from the fact that this has been a festering problem for more than 70 years, and what we know for a fa ct than 70 years, and what we know for a fact is that the situation in the kashmir valley, which is controlled by india, is pretty bad — alienation and disaffection are widespread. that said, i think it's also true that an organisation headquartered in pakistan that is known, claimed responsibility for stop that has complicated the problem and given it an international dimension. why don't the pakistanis get rid of this organisation? they have taken action in the last couple of days, banning the organisation. they had taken charge of their properties, but

whether they continue from here to a logical conclusion of prosecuting the people who are the leaders of this organisation, convicting them, is something that remains to be seen. is something that remains to be seen. in the present circumstances, there is a mood in india which suggests that people want retaliation, and that is where the tension comes from. obviously, there are superpowers trying to avoid and de—escalate the situation if possible, and efforts will continue. the mood very much is a demand for retaliation. and of course, we are in an electoral cycle in india, there are elections taking place in april and may. does this play into the politics? it certainly aggravates the situation, because in this election season, there is a temptation on the part of political parties to hype up the situation, hyped up further —— hype up fervour

and use it for electoral purposes. pakistan has big regional supporters. it's not on its own. the attack happened in iran as well. within two days, there were two attacks. i think the biggest loser... and it coincided with the visit of muhammad bin salman, the king of saudi arabia, to both countries. i think the biggest loser is imran khan. six months into his premiership, and with his announcement that he wanted better ties with iran, it had been actually a run, it was the first time since 1979 that we had a prime minister in pakistan who had that kind of

relationship, who was that charismatic, and wanted to improve relations. before the revolution, the shah of iran was the first foreign dignitary to visit pakistan. prime minister bhutto, who was prime minister from 1971 to 1979, had an iranian wife. the first lady of pakistan when pakistan became a republic was also iranian, so there was a lot of, you know... if imran khan is the loser, are you saying he is not in control or that he misjudged? we also have to take a look at internal pakistani politics, with other groups, what they want to achieve. who is the biggest winner? imran khan has been weakened by this, certainly. as faras imran khan has been weakened by this, certainly. as far as iran and pakistan are concerned, they are talking about building a wall in the

900 kilometres, so the islamic republic is emulating mr trump. jeffrey. two things emerge from me. one is that the politics of division that india is now seeing really echo what we see here in the uk and in the us. this is the overriding geopolitical theme of our time, that if we pit people against each other, we can, specific factions can come out victoriously. the other ironic historical note about india and pakistan that has a straight line to what we were just talking about in brexit is, the mess in kashmir is a direct legacy of 1947 and partition, and india's, the independence of india after the war, done by bureaucrats and technocrats in westminster, and you can see the

legacy of previous so—called brexits, in india, in ireland in the 19205. the uk has a terrible record of dividing and leaving, so there is this kind of ironic theme that recurs in contemporary british history that leaves a terrible mess when countries are divided in divisions happen. it may be a salutary tale. it sounds like a stretch, but i don't think it is. so history is never over. david, the thing is, that might be the case, but these aren't nuclear armed neighbours. you talked about how superpowers will be involved at the highest level to avoid conflict, arguably this is the most terrifying nuclear stand—off there can be anywhere in the world, because these countries have regarded each other as each other‘s biggest enemies almost since the inception, and they both have nuclear weapons. this matters to britain for another reason, which is a significant

number of british citizens have links to pakistan, especially to kashmir, actually, and to india. if things got difficult over there, it also might get quite bad over here. ashis, where do you think this is going? will it quieten down after the election? it is roll right now because it has just happened and because it has just happened and because of the politics, but will it go away? i think diplomacy is the best way forward, rather than military options. ifeel best way forward, rather than military options. i feel military options are limited. diplomacy can hurt pakistan. for instance, india has taken the step of withdrawing the most—favoured—nation status that it extended to pakistan back in 1996. tariffs have been imposed on pakistani exports to india. such moves, may be economic sanctions if the international community agrees, are the international community agrees,

a re steps the international community agrees, are steps that can be taken to pressurise pakistan into taking concrete steps against terrorist outfits which operate out of pakistan. this is notjust an indian concern but an international one, because it has hurt afghanistan and other countries, and even incidents in britain have emanated from that region. as i keep saying, diplomacy is the option, and i think india can achieve results. you are right in saying that perhaps after the election season the tension will die away, but what happens between now and the election period is the question. pakistan, let's not forget, does not subscribe to a no first strike doctrine when it comes to nuclear weapons. on that sombre thought, we will leave that discussion. nazenin was talking

about iran. sticks or carrots? last week the us vice president mike pence asked european allies to follow its example and abandon the nuclear deal with iran. the german chancellor angela merkel said no. where does this standoff go next? that, nazenin, is a question first for you. last week was the week that the myth of the islamic republic started to crack internationally, certainly everyone thought before the warsaw conference that it would bea the warsaw conference that it would be a failure, but still, over 70 countries... i should mention that the warsaw conference was organised by the us as a kind of middle east — iran conference. yes. over 70 countries were represented, and then you saw the munich conference, security conference, where the foreign minister of the islamic republic really cracked. least a set

of the bbc asked him one question, and there you had him showing off how the islamic republic had been able to go on someone, diverting the issue, whereas since 2017, they have had protests every day. according to amnesty international, 7000 people have been arrested. a television station operating from london and which is the second most watched in iran, 500,000 people responded to a survey using their app, and they gave the islamic republic in the past 40 years a report card with a great between zero and 20 of 0.85. the myth has been shattered. and the spring is india. that is domestic,

but internationally, you have the us and the eu on completely different tracks. not at all. the eu as well is very concerned about the missile programme in iran. more importantly, the eu has had islamic republic inspired or directed terrorism against their national is in holland, in france. and elsewhere. they are pretty concerned. with respect, they are singing from different song books. mr trump wants to break up the nuclear deal than the weapons deal, and europe does not. that's very good. there is a significant division, and i think it reflects the enmity that trump has inspired and his shoot from the hip foreign policy, and his mocking and

derision of european leaders, dismissal of nato. there is no reason for the european leaders, angela merkel and others, to side with trump and support his views, evenif with trump and support his views, even if they agree. if you listen to the statements they are making, the reason they are staying in the nuclear deal is for security reasons. it is not for any reasons beyond that. we are all agreed that the analysis is that iran is a problem. the islamic republic, not iran. mike david, they have —— david, they have different tracks. there is the problem of the islamic republic, then the problem of donald trump's relationship with his allies. the problem is that trump has become such an erratic force, and so likely to dump on his allies that essentially they feel they cannot rely on american foreign policy. in the case of syria, we

have the unilateral us pull—out, and the syrian unilateral us pull—back in the course of the last week. effectively, it will be very difficult for anybody to decide what to do asa difficult for anybody to decide what to do as a consequence of anything that donald trump says. all we can really do is wait until he is gone and hope that that is going to allow us and hope that that is going to allow us to get back to business.“ and hope that that is going to allow us to get back to business. if i may, the change inside iran is coming from inside iran. we hear you, nazenin. ashis. regional stability is of paramount importance. there is no better alternative. therefore, engagement with iran rather than hostility is a better way forward. we have to recognise the fact that what has turned out to be, shall we say, the ultimate or perhaps near ultimate result in iraq and syria are victories for the shia and victories

for non—sunny— mac in victories for the shia and victories for non—sunny—mac in iran. —— non—sunnis. this deal is the only one likely to keep a lid on iran's nuclear programme. it goes right up to india, because india would not wa nt to india, because india would not want the region destabilised by war, by an attack by the united states of america, which is actually triggered by israel. i agree. does america, which is actually triggered by israel. iagree. does anyone disagree with the european position? it sounds as if no one really feels... i suppose israel is the country getting behind the us position. the us position right now is not to attack iran. i don't know about the israeli position, but certainly not the american position. and what they want is change from within. everyone wants change from within. everyone wants change from within rather than an attack. that is where we will have to leave it. change from within proposed for

iran. thanks for joining change from within proposed for iran. thanks forjoining me today. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye.