welcome to bbc news. i'm reged ahmad. our top stories: clashes on the venezuelan border, as the opposition tries move aid into the country. security forces open fire on protestors, and at least hello and welcome two are dead. to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: five weeks to go till b day. the votes are being counted some things fall apart, in nigeria, after millions of people cast their ballots in the biggest but can the centre hold? election in african history. india looks to punish pakistan a court in chicago sets a $1 million bail bond for the deadliest attack in a for the singer r kelly, 30—year kashmir insurgency. who's been charged with ten counts of aggravated criminal sexual abuse. and hitting the right note — and iran diagnoses pathological obsession, as it shrugs off india's first and only professional the latest broadside orchestra makes its uk from the united states. debut this week. with me today: ashis ray of ray media, david aaronovitch, columnist for the london times, nazenin ansari, managing editor of kayhan life, and broadcaster, jeffrey kofman. welcome to you all. last week, brexit broke the mould again, when 12 mps

abandoned their parties, that is a lifechanging thing to do among the tribes of westminster. so what will get broken in british politics this week? david, you first, but before you answer the question, did we make anything new last week or did we just break things? first, i was enjoying the idea of french people listening to that, saying it was 50 days to go till b day, thinking they might think it was appropriate. it's difficult to tell whether something gigantic or new has happened as a result of the independent group. a lot of people thought it felt different. there are incredible hurdles for any new party to face before it can be in any way politically successful, but i think the feeling was that the manner in which it happened, the way in which those people did it, their savviness

in not immediately saddling themselves with name and a whole set of policies and so on immediately meant it allowed the possibility of other things to happen. the other thing i think it has done is it has put significant pressure on one part of the political establishment, the leader of the labour party, who as we know has probably been in favour of britain all his life not being part of the eu, and was very lukewarm about it in the referendum. it has probably put a lot of pressure on him to trim to the remain side and put pressure then on theresa may, or not give support to theresa may in a deal or no deal situation. and just before we get to all of that, looking forward, they talked, all of them, on leaving with a big slam of the door, they talked about the far left taking over labour, and on the tory side, they talked about far right taking over the conservative party. is that people who have to exaggerate to escape velocity or is it true?

they certainly, the labour leaders certainly feel that corbyn‘s com plete ta keover of the labour party would have been unimaginable at any time in the last 50 years and has constituted a huge change in what labour is. and the anti—semitism row has been a symptom of that, a very malign symptom of it. i likewise think that the conservative leave supporters, who were passionate about what they thought was happening to the party, i think they envisaged a situation whereby if and when theresa may goes, given the proclivities that it's pretty likely that that party would also be taken over by somebody from what we might once have regarded as the fringes. what is your take on all of this? at this point, does the party structure look more fragmented,

ironically, a bit more european? i think it reflects what's happening across the world. old structures, old party structures, are no longer working. specifically, i think, in relation to britain, i think we've got two parties with two leaders that are not charismatic, that are basically, certainly with theresa may, when she first got elected, amongst all of the candidates who were running for leadership, she was the one who had most experience, being minister, and she was known for being detail oriented. and it reminded me actually ofjimmy carter, of the united states right before ronald reagan came, andjimmy carteralso was very detail oriented, but once he took over, he could not really command that attention of his own constituents. and at the end of the day,

what brought jimmy carter down was that the democratic party was not standing behind him. and with jeremy corbyn as well, i think you see this thing of extremism within all of the politics taking over. it's interesting. like in 2014, when the four members of the iran all parliamentary group, led byjack straw, visited iran, when they came back, i was looking for interviews with all of them and none of them gave us an interview, except jeremy corbyn. why? because he thought, . .. he has been paid by press tv, and he has over him as well. so the labour party itself has a long way to go. sojeffrey, do you see this as being about individuals, a kind of cometh the hour cometh

the woman, or is this about a kind of broken system? i am clear that the system is broken. it doesn't represent the mainstream of britain on the left of the right, and certainly not in the centre. the independent group, i agree with david, it was smart of them to create a group without policies and an agenda, because they need time. on newsnight, they were being beaten up because they didn't know one day one what they stood for. i think this represents a complete dysfunction and disintegration of the traditional system. where it takes us, history would suggest that it is hard for a rump like the independent group to make it in a first past the post system, which does not make it easy for a third or fourth or fifth party to actually win against all the others, when the votes are divided. but i think all the old rules don't apply anymore. if you look at bernie sanders in the last us election, these kind of insurgencies can get, particularly in social media, and fuelled by the anger and the disaffection of tories under theresa may, and the labour party under corbyn, i think

anything is possible. i think the one thing we can all agree is that predictions are dangerous at this point. but that is what i will ask everyone to do. i started by saying, what are we going to break this coming week? we have seen three cabinet ministers this week saying that a no—deal brexit needs to be avoided, and if necessary, there must be delay, a warning that they may vote against their own government. what do you think is going to happen? so it will be a significant phase in british politics. having said that, i think defections in mature democracies are rare, so what has happened doesn't happen everyday. i remember very well what happened in the 1980s when the gang of four left the labour party and formed the sdp.

it didn't go too far and they had to merge with the liberals to become the liberal democrats, and they have progressed a great deal. there is an opportunity, depending on which inclinations ultimately prevail, for the independent group, because they are talking about occupying the middle ground, joining up with the liberal party. if that happens, and there is a consolidation in the middle ground, that could take them forward. how much forward we will have to wait and see, because there seems to be a common ground, not only in occupying the middle ground, but also in most of them being remainers. all of them, if i am not mistaken, arejoining up with the liberal party, which is 100% remain, would i think pose an interesting proposition. we are definitely into new ground as far as well politics is concerned. i do believe that if there is a failed brexit process, i think more people could join this group, and there could be a bigger rump than what there is today.

0k, we will leave that group for the time being, because we need to get through the next few weeks before we even get to a future. you have neatly sidestepped my question. i will make david answer it. what will happen in the next week? yes. we have these three cabinet ministers putting a letter in the newspaper this weekend, and they are signalling they are not going to have a no—deal brexit. there are significant numbers of conservatives, including cabinet members, who have let it be know, some of them overtly, that if the conservative party suggests a no—deal brexit, they will resign the party altogether, depriving theresa may of her majority, and presumably allowing a majority to form in parliament quite easily for a rejection of no deal, and a request, which i think

the government will be forced to ask for and which the eu would be likely to give for an extension, and we could come back in a few months and have this conversation again. that's the most likely scenario, if you have to predict, iagree. i think the model continues, and god help us, we are sitting at this table three months from now when things have not progressed much. the question of sharm el sheikh this weekend, when the cabinet ministers wrote the letter, they said, if there is no deal in the next few days, she is talking in sharm el sheikh... she won't get any more out of them. how many more times do you have to go to brussels to get kicked? they're not moving. part of the reason they're not moving is they know that whatever they agree to with her, she can't necessarily deliver. why would they? it won't happen. her strategy of brinksmanship and playing out the clock, which plays into the brexit eras, the 60 members of the european research group, is

not working, because what we see instead is the remainers, as the clock ticks down, are saying, wait a minute, now it's getting serious. we can no longer sit and wait for her to solve this. she is not going to solve this. i think my better angels have sat around this table over the last few years, i think maybe we all underestimated her and she is really going to do it, but it is over. it is not going to happen. maybe i will eat my words, but i am saying on television, i cannot imagine history being kind to her. let us leave the brexit discussion for this week at this point. now, to india and pakistan, because it was the deadliest attack in a 30—year insurgency. on 14th february, a young man who grew up in the indian—administered part of kashmir rammed a carfull of explosives into a military convoy, killing 46 troops. india was quick to accuse pakistan of helping the bomber. so what options does

it have for revenge? ashis, you'vejust come back from india, you were there when this attack happened. what is the mood and there what is the government going to do? the mood is prettyjingoistic in india at the moment. the ruling dispensation has not discouraged such feelings. this stems from the fact that this has been a festering problem for more than 70 years, and what we know for a fact is that the situation in the kashmir valley, which is controlled by india, is pretty bad — alienation and disaffection are widespread. that said, i think it's also true that an organisation headquartered in pakistan, that is known as the jaish—e—mohammed, claimed responsibility. so that really has complicated the problem and given it an international dimension.

why don't the pakistanis get rid of this organisation and take some action? they have taken action in the last couple of days, banning the organisation. they have taken charge of their properties, but whether they continue from here to a logical conclusion of prosecuting the people who are the leaders of this organisation, convicting them, is something that remains to be seen. so in the present circumstances, there is a mood in india which suggests that people want retaliation, and that is where the tension comes from. and obviously, there are superpowers trying to avoid and to de—escalate the situation in india and pakistan if possible, and efforts will continue. but as i said, the mood in india is very much a demand for retaliation. and of course, we are in an electoral cycle in india, there are elections taking place in april and may. does this play into the politics? yes, it certainly aggravates the situation, because in this election season, there's

a temptation on the part of political parties to hype up the situation, hype up fervour and use it for electoral purposes. how do you see this? because, of cousre, pakistan has big regional supporters, it's not on its own. the attack happened in iran as well. within two days, there were two attacks. i think the biggest loser is prime minister imran khan. and it coincided with the visit of muhammad bin salman,

tahir the crown prince of saudi arabia, to both countries. i think the biggest loser is imran khan. six months into his premiership, and with his announcement that he wanted better ties with iran, it had been actually iran, it was the first time since 1979 that we had a prime minister in pakistan who had that kind of relationship, who was that charismatic, and wanted to improve relations. before the revolution, the shah of iran was the first foreign dignitary to visit pakistan. prime minister bhutto, who was the prime minister from 1971 to 1979, had an iranian wife. the first lady of pakistan, when pakistan became a republic, was also iranian, so there was a lot of, you know... if imran khan is the loser, are you saying he is not in control or that he misjudged? we also have to take a look at internal pakistani politics, isi, with other groups, what do they want to achieve? who is the biggest winner? imran khan has been weakened by this, certainly. as far as iran and pakistan

are concerned, they are talking about building a wall, within 900 kilometres, so the islamic republic is emulating mr trump. jeffrey? two themes emerge from me. one is that the politics of division that india is now seeing really echo what we see here in the uk and in the us. this is the overriding geopolitical theme of our time, that if we pit people against each other, we can, specific factions can come out victoriously. the other ironic historical note about india and pakistan that has a straight line to what we were just talking about in brexit is, the mess in kashmir is a direct legacy of 1947 and partition, and india's, the independence of india after the war, done by bureaucrats and technocrats in westminster, and you can see

the legacy of previous so—called brexits, in india, in ireland in the 19205. the uk has a terrible record of dividing and leaving, so there is this kind of ironic theme that recurs in contemporary british history that leaves a terrible mess when countries are divided and divisions happen. it may be a salutary tale. i know it sounds like a stretch, but i don't think it is. so history is never over. david, the thing is, that might be the case, but these aren't nuclear armed neighbours? you talked about how superpowers will be involved at the highest level to avoid conflict, arguably this is the most terrifying nuclear stand—off there can be anywhere in the world, because these countries have regarded each other as each other‘s biggest enemies almost since the inception, and they both have nuclear weapons. this matters to britain for another

reason, which is a significant number of british citizens have links to pakistan, especially to kashmir, actually, and to india. if things got difficult over there, it also might get quite bad over here. ashis, where do you think this is going? will it quieten down after the election? obviously it is raw right now because it has just happened and because of the politics, but will it go away? i think diplomacy is the best way forward, rather than military options. i feel military options are limited. diplomacy can hurt pakistan. for instance, india has taken the step of withdrawing the most—favoured—nation status that it extended to pakistan back in 1996. tariffs have been imposed on pakistani exports to india.

such moves, maybe economic sanctions if the international community agrees, are steps that can be taken to pressurise pakistan into taking concrete steps against terrorist outfits which operate out of pakistan. this is notjust an indian concern but an international one, because it has hurt afghanistan and other countries, and even incidents in britain have emanated from that region. as i keep saying, diplomacy is the option, and i think india can achieve results. you are right in saying that perhaps after the election season the tension will die away, but what happens between now and the election period is the question. pakistan, let's not forget, does not subscribe to a no first strike doctrine when it comes to nuclear weapons. on that sombre thought, we will leave that discussion. nazenin was talking about iran. sticks or carrots? last week the us vice president

mike pence asked european allies to follow its example and abandon the nuclear deal with iran. the german chancellor angela merkel said no. where does this standoff go next? that, nazenin, is a question first for you. last week was the week that the myth of the islamic republic started to crack internationally, certainly everyone thought before the warsaw conference that it would be a failure, but still, over 70 countries... i should mention that the warsaw conference was organised by the us as a kind of middle east — iran conference. yes. over 70 countries were represented, and then you saw the munich

conference, security conference, where the foreign minister of the islamic republic really cracked. least a set of the bbc asked him one question, and there you had him showing off how the islamic republic had been able to go on someone, diverting the issue, whereas since 2017, they have had protests every day. according to amnesty international, 7000 people have been arrested. a television station operating from london and which is the second most watched in iran, 500,000 people responded to a survey using their app, and they gave the islamic republic in the past a0 years a report card with a great between zero and 20 of 0.85. the myth has been shattered. and the spring is india. that is domestic, but internationally, you have the us and the eu

on completely different tracks. not at all. the eu as well is very concerned about the missile programme in iran. more importantly, the eu has had islamic republic inspired or directed terrorism against their national is in holland, in france. and elsewhere. they are pretty concerned. with respect, they are singing from different song books. mr trump wants to break up the nuclear deal than the weapons deal, and europe does not. that's very good. there is a significant division, and i think it reflects the enmity

that trump has inspired and his shoot from the hip foreign policy, and his mocking and derision of european leaders, dismissal of nato. there is no reason for the european leaders, angela merkel and others, to side with trump and support his views, even if they agree. if you listen to the statements they are making, the reason they are staying in the nuclear deal is for security reasons. it is not for any reasons beyond that. we are all agreed that the analysis is that iran is a problem. the islamic republic, not iran. david, they have different tracks. it isa it is a tactics question and they just don't want to get in behind donald trump and his administration. there is the problem of the islamic republic, then the problem of donald trump's relationship with his allies. the problem is that trump has become such an erratic force, and so likely to dump on his allies

that essentially they feel they cannot rely on american foreign policy. in the case of syria, we have the unilateral us pull—out, and the syrian unilateral us pull— back in the course of the last week. effectively, it will be very difficult for anybody to decide what to do as a consequence of anything that donald trump says. all we can really do is wait until he is gone and hope that that is going to allow us to get back to business. if i may, the change inside iran is coming from inside iran. we hear you, nazenin. ashis. regional stability is of paramount importance. there is no better alternative. therefore, engagement with iran rather than hostility is a better way forward. we have to recognise the fact that what has turned out to be, shall we say, the ultimate or perhaps near ultimate result

in iraq and syria are victories for the shia and victories for non—sunnis in syria, and therefore a victory for iran. this deal is the only one likely to keep a lid on iran's nuclear programme. this is the sentiment in the region, it goes right up to india, because india would not want the region destabilised by war, by an attack by the united states of america, which is actually triggered by israel. i agree. does anyone disagree with the european position? it sounds as if no—one really feels... i suppose israel is the country getting behind the us position. the us position right now is not to attack iran. i don't know about the israeli position, but certainly not the american position. and what they want is change from within. everyone wants change

from within rather than an attack. that is where we will have to leave it. change from within proposed for iran. thanks forjoining me today. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. hello. hello there. part one of the weekend was a little bit disappointing with regards to the cloud amounts for the north and the west of the uk. the best of the sunshine was across eastern england, where it was pretty warm, a top temperature of 18 celsius. now, for sunday, it looks like it's going to be another chilly start, but i'm hopeful we should see more widespread sunshine across the country, so i think part two of the weekend is looking better for most of us. now, this is saturday's weather front. no more than a bit of broken cloud first thing on sunday, with some clear spells for the north and the west of it.

most of the clear spells though will be across the midlands, southern, and eastern england. it will be quite chilly here to start this morning. same across the north—east of scotland, with again some mist and fog patches. some of which, again, could be quite dense in places. now, there will be off mist and fog patch across the south and south—east of england, but i think the main risk will be a bit further north for this morning, across the midlands and in towards the east and north—east of england. not to mention some of the fog could, like saturday morning, be problematic and cause some travel issues. now, most of it should clear away, it could linger though close to the east coast. if it does, it will quite grey and cool through the day, but for many, it's a fine one with widespread sunshine, again, turning very mild after that cool start, with hghs of 11; or 15 degrees, so that's a few degrees down from what we've had the last couple of days. as we head on into sunday night, it looks like we'll import something a bit cooler and drier off the near continent, so it means it could be quite cold for a portion of england and perhaps into eastern wales, as can you see from the blue hue there. so don't be surprised early monday, if you see a bit more of a widespread frost here.

further north and west, not quite as cold, so a little bit more breeze and cloud around. so for monday, again, it's a chilly start with some mist and fog, but that chilly start should tend to burn away. a weather front will bring some rain to the far north of scotland, becoming confined to the northern isles. the rest of the country, a glorious afternoon with widespread sunshine, light winds and temperatures 15 or 16 celsius, so still well above the seasonal average. high—pressure still in the driving seat as we head on into tuesday, another weak weather front just pushing into the north—west corner of the country may introduce more cloud into the hebrides and the north and west mainland of scotland. but elsewhere, after a chhilly start with a little bit of mist and fog, it should be another glorious afternoon, with widespread sunshine, light winds and temperatures well above the seasonal average. in fact, a bit warmer on tuesday, could see 17 or 18 celsius. now, as we head deeper on into the week, it looks like it's going to stay fine with cool nights and sunny days. but there are signs of it cooling down as we end the week and head on into the weekend, with it turning a bit more unsettled as well.