that is domestic, but internationally, hello there. welcome to bbc news, you have the us and the eu broadcasting to viewers is taking place in north america at the dolby theatre in la. some frost and fold to start off and around the globe. queen opened the show on completely different tracks. this monday morning in some parts of i'm reged ahmad. and the first award of the night our top stories: was best supporting actress, the uk but as the day wears on we which went to regina king he will rock you — will see more warm sunshine. frosty rami malek is named best actor for her part in if beale street could talk. not at all. nights and foggy mornings will as this year's roma has won best foreign film. the eu as well is very concerned continue over the next few days. by mahershala ali about the missile programme in iran. the end of this week the weather more importantly, the eu has had will start to change, it will turn a oscars ceremony draws to a close. won best supporting actor. islamic republic inspired pope francis has condemned priests or directed terrorism against their bit more unsettled. as i mentioned, guilty of child sexual abuse, nationals in holland, in france. starting monday on a chilly note, and i'm tom brook, reporting live calling them ‘tools of satan‘ and elsewhere. at the dolby theatre in hollywood. and promised to do more particularly down towards the south. not as cold across north—west to protect children. olivia colman has won for best speaking at the end scotland, extra cloud and patchy of the roman catholic conference actress at the academy awards. on paedophilia within the clergy, rain here. also a futile patches, they are pretty concerned. he said victims chiefly across yorkshire, up into also in the news, victims of clerical sexual abuse have said would now be the priority. north—east england. some of the pope francis's promise to protect venezuelan soldiers who defected fault could be slow to clear. there children from paedophile priests is a stunning letdown. to colombia on saturday say could be a few misty patches through colombia says more than 100 they fear for the safety the first heart of the morning but venezuelan soldiers have deserted of their families under with respect, they are singing as political pressure builds president from different song books. as we go through the day the vast nicolas maduro‘s government. mr trump wants to break up majority are seeing blue skies and on president maduro. one officer told the bbc that forces the nuclear deal sunshine away from the far north of and the weapons deal, the big freeze — why the search loyal to mr maduro could lash out scott —— scotland where there will for the world's oldest ice at his family because he had heeded be outbreaks of rain. temperature and europe does not. the opposition‘s call to defect. wise, 14—18 quite widely. one to places could get to 19. fine through that's very good. tuesday and wednesday. swirly there is a significant division, and i think it reflects turning more unsettled and cool by the enmity that trump has inspired the end of the week. —— slowly.

it's 3:30am. now on bbc news, dateline london. and his shoot from the hip foreign policy, and his mocking and derision of european leaders, dismissal of nato. there is no reason for the european leaders, angela merkel and others, to side with trump and support his views, even if they agree. if you listen to the statements they are making, the reason they are staying in the nuclear deal is for security reasons. it is not for any hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. reasons beyond that. this week, five weeks to go till b day. some things fall apart, we are all agreed that the analysis but can the centre hold? is that iran is a problem. the islamic republic, not iran. india looks to punish pakistan david, they have different tracks. for the deadliest attack in a 30—year kashmir insurgency. and iran diagnoses "pathological obsession" as it shrugs off the latest broadside from the united states. with me today, ashis ray of ray media, there is the problem of the islamic republic, david aaronovitch, and then the problem columnist for the london times, of donald trump's relationship with his allies. nazenin ansari, managing editor of kayhan life, and american writer and broadcaster jeffrey kofman. welcome to you all.

now, last week, brexit broke the mould again when 12 mps abandoned their parties, the problem is that trump has become such an erratic force, and so likely to dump on his allies that is a life—changing thing to do that essentially among the tribes of westminster. they feel they cannot rely so, what will get broken on american foreign policy. in the case of syria, we have the in british politics this week? syrian unilateral us pull—out, david, you first, but before and the syrian unilateral us pull—back in the course of the last week. you answer the question, tell me, did we make anything new last week, effectively, it will be very or did we just break things? difficult for anybody to decide what to do as a consequence well, first, i was enjoying the idea of anything that donald trump says. of french people listening, all we can really do is wait saying it was 50 days until he is gone to go till b day, and thinking that they might and hope that that is going to allow us to get back to business. if i may, the change inside iran think it was appropriate. is coming from inside iran. we hear you, nazenin... ashis. it's extraordinarily difficult regional stability is of to tell whether something gigantic paramount importance. or new has happened as a result there is no better alternative. therefore, engagement with iran of the independent group. rather than hostility is a better way forward. a lot of people thought that it did feel different. there are incredible hurdles for any new party to face before it can be in any way politically successful, we have to recognise the fact that what has turned out to be, but i think the feeling was that the manner in which it shall we say, the ultimate or perhaps near ultimate result in iraq and syria are victories happened, the way in which those for the shia and victories people did it, their savviness for non—sunnis in iran. in not coming up with a whole set

of policies immediately meant that it allowed the possibility of other things to happen. this deal is the only one likely to keep a lid on iran's nuclear programme. it goes right up to india, the other thing i think it has done because india would not want the region destabilised by war, is, it has put significant pressure by an attack by the united states on one part of the of america, which is actually political establishment — triggered by israel. it's put a lot of pressure i agree. on the leader of the labour party, who, as we know, has probably been in favour of britain all his life does anyone disagree not being part of the european union and so on, with the european position? and was very lukewarm about it at the referendum. it has probably put a lot of pressure on him to trim it sounds as if no—one to the remain side and put pressure then on theresa may, or not give support to theresa may in her deal or no—deal situation. really feels... just before we get to all of that, looking forward, they talked, all of them, on leaving with a big i suppose israel is the country getting behind the us position. the us position right now slam of the door, they talked is not to attack iran. i don't know about the israeli position, but certainly not the american position. about the far left taking over and what they want labour, those leavers, is change from within. and on the tory side, everyone wants change the far right taking over from within rather than an attack. the conservative party. that is where we will is that people who have have to leave it. change from within

to kind of exaggerate proposed for iran. to escape velocity, or is it true? thanks forjoining me today. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. 00:04:06,104 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 goodbye. they certainly feel that corbyn‘s complete takeover of the labour party and the structure of the labour party would have been unimaginable at any time in the last 50 years. the anti—semitism row has been a symptom of that, a very malign symptom of it. i likewise think that the conservative leavers, who were actually passionate about what they thought was happening to the party, i think they envisaged a situation whereby if and when theresa may goes, given the proclivities of the current membership of the conservative party, that it's pretty likely that that party would also be taken over by somebody from out of what one might once have regarded as the fringes. nazenin, what is your take on all of this? at this point, does the party

structure in the uk look more fragmented, ironically, a bit more european? i think it reflects what is happening across the world. certainly, old structures, old party structures, are no longer working. specifically, i think, in relation to britain, i think we've got two parties with two leaders that are not charismatic, that are basically, certainly with theresa may, when she first got elected, amongst all of the candidates who were running for leadership, she was the one who had most experience being minister, and she was known for being detail—oriented. it reminded me actually of jimmy carter, who was the president of the united states right before ronald reagan came in, andjimmy carteralso was very detail—oriented, but once he took over, he could not really command that attention

of his own constituents. and at the end of the day, what brought jimmy carter down was that the democratic party was not standing behind him. and with jeremy corbyn as well, i think you see this thing of extremism within all of the politics taking over. it's interesting. like, in 2014, when four members of the all parliamentary group, led byjack straw, visited iran, when they came back, i was looking for interviews with all of them, and none of them gave us an interview except jeremy corbyn. why? because he thought we are the kayhan of iran. as we know, he has been paid by press tv, and he has got that shadow over him as well. so, the labour party itself has a long way to go. so, jeffrey, do you see this as being about individuals, or is this about a kind of broken system?

oh, i am very clear that the system is broken. it doesn't represent the mainstream of britain on the left of the right, and certainly not in the centre. i think the independent group, i agree with david, it was very smart of them to create a group without policies and an agenda, because they need time. i thought it was interesting on newsnight, they were being beaten up because they didn't know on day one what they stood for. i think this represents a complete dysfunction and, really, disintegration of the traditional system. where it takes us, history would suggest that it is very hard for a romp like the independent group to make inroads, in the first—past—the—post system, which does not make it easy for a third or fourth or fifth party to actually win against all the other — when the votes are divided. but i think all the old rules don't apply. if you look at bernie sanders in the last us election,

these kind of insurgencies, particularly in the world of social media, and fuelled by the anger and disaffection of tories, of the conservatives under theresa may, and the labour party under corbyn, i think anything is possible. what we can all agree is that predictions are dangerous at this point. but that is what i will ask everyone to do. i started by saying, what are we going to break this coming week? already this weekend, we have seen three cabinet ministers this weekend saying that a no—deal brexit needs to be avoided, and if necessary, there must be delay, a warning that they may vote against their own government. what do you think will happen? so, the next week will be a significant phase in british politics. having said that, defections in mature democracies are rare, and, therefore, what has happened does not happen every day. i do remember very well what happened in the 1980s when the gang of four left the labour party and formed the sdp.

it didn't go too far, ultimately, had to merge with the liberals to become the liberal democrats, and they too haven't progressed a great deal. there is an opportunity, though, depending on which inclinations ultimately prevail, for the independent group, because they are talking about occupying the middle ground. joining up with the liberal party. if that happens, then there is a consolidation in the middle ground, and that could take them forward. how much forward, we will have to wait and see, because there seems to be a common ground, not only in occupying the middle ground, but also in most of them being remainers. in fact, all of them, if i am not mistaken, are remainers. joining up with the liberal party, which is 100% remainers, would i think pose an interesting proposition. we are certainly into new ground as far as world politics is concerned. where i do believe that if there is a failed brexit process, i think more people

could join this group, and there could be a bigger rump than what there is today. we will leave that group for the time being, because we need to get through the next few weeks before we even get to a future. you have neatly sidestepped my question. i will make david answer it. what will happen in the next week? yes! i think it is time we moved on to india now, don't you think?! we have these three cabinet ministers putting this letter in the newspaper this weekend, they are clearly signalling they are not going to have a no—deal brexit. there are significant numbers of conservatives, including cabinet members, who have let it be known overtly that if the conservative party emerges suggesting that we should have a no—deal brexit, they will resign the party altogether, depriving theresa may of her majority, and presumably allowing a majority to form in parliament quite easily for a rejection of any no—deal,

and a request, which i think the government would be forced to back for an extention, and which the eu would be likely to give, for an extension, and we could come back in a few months and have this conversation again. i think that is the most likely scenario, if you have to predict, i agree. i think the muddle continues, and god help us, we are sitting at this table three months from now and things have not progressed much. let's dispatch the question of sharm el sheikh this weekend, when the cabinet ministers wrote the letter, they said, if there is no deal in the next few days, she is talking in sharm el sheikh. she's not going to get any more out of them. how many more times do you have to go to brussels to get kicked? they're not moving. part of the reason they're not moving is that they know that whatever they agree to with her, she can't necessarily deliver it. why would they more? it's just not going to happen. her strategy of brinksmanship and playing out the clock,

which plays into the brexiteers, the 60 members of the european research group, is not working, because what we're seeing instead is the remainers, as the clock ticks down, are saying, wait a minute, now it's getting serious. we can no longer sit and wait for her to solve this. she is not going to solve this. i think that my better angels, as i've sat around this table over the last few years, wonder if she will surprise us all. we think maybe we all underestimated her and she is really going to do it, but it is over. it is not going to happen. i am saying it on television. maybe i will eat my words. but i cannot imagine history being kind to her. let us leave the brexit discussion for this week at this point. we'll come back to it next week. now, to india and pakistan. it was the deadliest attack in a 30—year insurgency. on 14th february, a young man who grew up in the indian—administered part of kashmir rammed a car full of explosives into a military convoy, killing 46 troops.

india was quick to accuse pakistan of helping the bomber. so, what options does it have for revenge? ashis, you have just come back from india. you were there when this attack happened. what is the mood? what are the government going to do? prettyjingoistic in india at the moment. the ruling dispensation has not discouraged such feelings. this stems from the fact that this has been a festering problem for more than 70 years, and what we know for a fact is that, a, the situation in the kashmir valley, which is controlled by india, is pretty bad — alienation, disaffection is widespread. that said, i think it's also true that an organisation headquartered in pakistan claimed responsibility for the incident. so, that really has complicated the problem and given it an international dimension. why don't the pakistanis

get rid of this organisation? pakistan have taken action in the last couple of days, they have banned the organisation. they have taken charge of their properties, and the rest of it. but whether they continue from here to a logical conclusion of prosecuting the people who are the leaders of this organisation, convicting them, is something that remains to be seen. so, in the present circumstances, there is a mood in india which suggests that people want retaliation, and that is where the tension comes from. obviously, there are superpowers trying to avoid and to de—escalate the situation in india and pakistan if possible, and efforts will continue. as i said, the mood very much is a demand for retaliation. and, of course, we are in an electoral cycle in india, there are elections taking place in april and may. does this play into the politics? it certainly aggravates the situation, because in this election season,

there is a temptation on the part of political parties to hype up the situation, hype up fervour and use it for electoral purposes. pakistan has big regional supporters. it's not on its own. the attack happened in iran as well. within two days, there were two attacks. i think the biggest loser... and it coincided with the visit of mohammed bin salman, the king of saudi arabia, to both countries. i think the biggest loser is imran khan. six months into his premiership, and with his announcement that he wanted better ties

with iran, it had been actually iran, it was the first time since 1979 that we had a prime minister in pakistan who had that kind of relationship, who was that charismatic, and wanted to improve relations. before the revolution, the shah of iran was the first foreign dignitary to visit pakistan. prime minister bhutto, who was prime minister from 1971 to 1979, had an iranian wife. the first lady of pakistan when pakistan became a republic was also iranian, so there was a lot of, you know... if imran khan is the loser, are you saying he is not in control or that he misjudged? we also have to take a look at internal pakistani politics, with other groups, what they want to achieve. who is the biggest winner? imran khan has been weakened

by this, certainly. as far as iran and pakistan are concerned, they are talking about building a wall in the 900 kilometres, so the islamic republic is emulating mr trump. jeffrey. two things emerge from me. one is that the politics of division that india is now seeing really echo what we see here in the uk and in the us. this is the overriding geopolitical theme of our time, that if we pit people against each other, we can, specific factions can come out victoriously. the other ironic historical note about india and pakistan that has a straight line to what we were just talking about in brexit is, the mess in kashmir is a direct legacy of 1947 and partition, and india's, the independence of india after the war, done by bureaucrats and technocrats in westminster, and you can see the legacy of previous so—called brexits, in india, in ireland in the 1920s.

the uk has a terrible record of dividing and leaving, so there is this kind of ironic theme that recurs in contemporary british history that leaves a terrible mess when countries are divided and divisions happen. it may be a salutary tale. it sounds like a stretch, but i don't think it is. so history is never over. david, the thing is, that might be the case, but these are nuclear armed neighbours... you talked about how superpowers will be involved at the highest level to avoid conflict, arguably this is the most terrifying nuclear stand—off there can be anywhere in the world, because these countries have regarded each other as each other‘s biggest enemies

almost since their inception, and they both have nuclear weapons. this matters to britain for another reason, which is a significant number of british citizens have links to pakistan, especially to kashmir, actually, and to india. if things got difficult over there, it also might get quite bad over here. ashis, where do you think this is going? will it quieten down after the election? it is raw right now, because it has just happened and because of the politics, but will it go away? i think diplomacy is the best way forward, rather than military options. i feel military options are limited. diplomacy can hurt pakistan. for instance, india has taken the step of withdrawing the most—favoured—nation status

that it extended to pakistan back in 1996. tariffs have been imposed on pakistani exports to india. such moves, maybe economic sanctions if the international community agrees, are steps that can be taken to pressurise pakistan into taking concrete steps against terrorist outfits which operate out of pakistan. this is notjust an indian concern but an international one, because it has hurt afghanistan and other countries, and even incidents in britain have emanated from that region. as i keep saying, diplomacy is the option, and i think india can achieve results. you are right in saying that perhaps after the election season the tension will die away, but what happens between now and the election period is the question. pakistan, let's not forget, does not subscribe to a no first strike doctrine when it comes to nuclear weapons.

on that sombre thought, we will leave that discussion. nazenin was talking about iran. sticks or carrots? last week the us vice president mike pence asked european allies to follow its example and abandon the nuclear deal with iran. german chancellor angela merkel said no. where does this stand—off go next? that, nazenin, is a question first for you. last week was the week that the myth of the islamic republic started to crack internationally, certainly everyone thought before the warsaw conference that it would be a failure, but still, over 70 countries... i should mention that the warsaw conference was organised by the us as a kind of middle east—iran conference. yes. over 70 countries were represented,

and then you saw the munich conference, security conference, where the foreign minister of the islamic republic really cracked. lyse doucet of the bbc asked him one question, and there you had him showing off how the islamic republic had been able to go on so long by diverting the issue, whereas since 2017, they have had protests every day. according to amnesty international, 7000 people have been arrested. a television station operating from london, and which is the second most watched in iran, 500,000 people responded to a survey using their app, and they gave the islamic republic in the past a0 years a report card with a grade between zero and 20 of 0.85. the myth has been shattered. 00:22:34,175 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 and the spring is in the air.