welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to viewers in north america in malaysia, murder charges and around the globe. against one of the defendants my name is lewis vaughanjones. have been dropped. siti aisyah from indonesia has been our top stories: two years after the killing discharged from court. of kim jong—un‘s half—brother she and a vietnamese woman in malaysia — murder were accused of killing kim jong—nam charges against one of the defendants are dropped. by smearing nerve agent on his face at kuala lumpur airport. families and fighters leave the islamic state group's last stronghold in syria — as the final assault by western—backed forces begins. we have a special report. syrian forces backed by the us have ethiopia declares a national begun their assault on the last day of mourning — after the plane crash outside enclave held by so—called islamic state. addis ababa that killed all 157 thousands of women and children have people on board. left the area in recent days — with many is supporters surrendering to kurdish forces. a day of mourning has been declared in ethiopia after a plane crash killed all 157 people on board. the boeing 737, owned by ethiopian airlines, yelling. was carrying passengers from more and, thousands protest in moscow than thirty countries. against plans to cut off russia's it came down shortly after taking internet from the rest of the world. off from the capital addis ababa. it's the second air crash in five months involving this type of plane. now on bbc news dateline london.

hello, and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. it's a decisive week coming up in the british parliament. will theresa may get her brexit deal through, or meet her waterloo? and, across the channel — a letter to all the citizens of europe. in 22 languages and 28 newspapers — the french president appeals for a european renaissance. but, with the far—right mobilising for eu—wide elections — is it the moment to dream of ever closer union? my guests today: political commentator, steve richards. nesrine malik, columnist for the guardian. michael goldfarb, host of the frdh podcast. marc roche of french

news magazine, le point. i don't need to tell you that it's less than three weeks till brexit day. two months ago, theresa may's withdrawal agreement suffered the biggest defeat in british parliamentary history. and on tuesday, the prime minister faces parliament again. has enough changed to get her deal through? steve 7 almost certainly not. there is little evidence of much change at all. she will get a rewording of a somewhat limited significance, in relation to the issue of the so—called backstop, this is the insurance policy which if the uk leaves the eu, it remains committed to a soft border in ireland. with that soft border, i'm told there is a solution to it, no one knows what it is, the uk would stay

in the customs union. theresa may's hardline brexiteers don't like it, they still don't like it, and they are unlikely to like it next tuesday. but, it is extraordinary it is less than three weeks to go until britain, theoretically, leaves the eu. i remember being on this programme a year ago, and the panel all agreed it was astonishing no one knew then what form brexit would take. with less than three weeks to go, still, nobody knows for sure what form it will take, and when. an extraordinary position. does anybody disagree with steve? does anybody think we will withdraw on tuesday? um, no. do we think the current talking from brussels and grimsby, in fact, on friday, the prime minister was speaking to brussells saying just one more push. michel barnier was tweeting

back his responses. marc, do you feel at this point its using public pressure and the public may to negotiate, to leverage? or, is it pre—empting a blame game? it's to no avail because on friday, the french minister for europe was in london. she spoke to us, saying that she is exasperated. she just can't understand what the british want. the deal is the deal and won't be changed. maybe a little wording. but, she went even further and that is the great danger of it all. she said, i don't see the need to extend article 50 by several weeks to delay brexit. for what? the british don't have a plan. and so where we are heading from the european point of view, no extension, because i think the french will oppose it.

and a hard brexit, i can't see any other solution. nesrine, do you see an extension? no, but i also don't see any willpower from —— no, but i also don't see any willpower from theresa may's conservative government to do anything, for when the worst case scenario does happen, theyjust don't have someone to blame. that's why i agree with you... theresa may's speeches in general, notjust the latest one in grimsby, have changed and calcified recently. they have become less about compromise and letting people come round the table and try to understand and explain what's going on. they have been more about, i think, below the belt hitting at the labour party and the eu and her tory enemies. and i think that is her positioning for when things don't go to plan, for her to say, it was the labour party for not having the willpower

to talk to me about it, it is the eu being intransigent, and it is those members of the tory party who were not being realistic. and i think that is a very shameful abdication on the part of theresa may, for herjust to cover her bases and make sure that when it all hits the fan, she's all the things lined up and she can point the finger somewhere else. last—ditch negotiation going on this weekend, or pre—emptive blame game? in a sense, there is a unifying principle about brexit in the first place. it's been about, at least in the conservative party, blaming europe for about 30—35 years for all the shortcomings in domestic policy. going back to the time of margaret thatcher, and restructuring the british economy and creating social fermenting of chaos...

saying oh, look, we could have been successful, but the conservatives blame european regulations. they were out of power for about 11 years, but they came back into power and still wear blaming regulations. the instituted austerity. to me, the most extraordinary thing is how about a politician she is, and she's risen to the top of the political tree. the naked bribery, the {1.6 billion... for all of those labour, leave tiles. — — leave towns. where was it 8—10 years ago when they took power? she wouldn't describe the stronger towns fund as naked bribery. but do you think any of that will work? we have also heard the chancellor talking about getting the deal through on tuesday would release funds which are currently tied up? the infamous £50 million a week

that we give to the eu in dues and whatever first. plus, it doesn't take into account that the european structural funds which do come back. and the towns fund is spread over ten years, i think stephen will note the numbers better than any of us, this is essentially what we might have expected back in european structural funds anyway. it's naked and it is crude, but it's all about blame game. brexit has been about blaming the eu for everything not going right, particularly when it is a conservative government. and it is a fiction. to no avail because the eu, for once, has been absolutely united with this plan. the british have tried everything, going above michel barnier, going directly to the allies. the eu stuck to the plan, the british signed that plan. they come back saying, we want changes, that is not possible. steve, on weather anybody‘s mind is going to be changed by tuesday

by either the stronger towns fund, or philip allen saying we will get it through now that we have about money? —— hammond. no, she will get the support of some labour mps as she did last time, but not as many as she had hoped for. butjust to go back to may the politician, she is extraordinary, in that her strategy, as far as you could call it a strategy, is just to keep going. i think that she thinks that her biggest success in her political life, for her, was her time at the home office when she was home secretary for a long time, six years. broke records. her method then was, if she faced opposition in the cabinet to something she wanted do, she just kept going. this is what she had applied to this. up until the vote on how deal that she lost in january, she was adamant that the backstop

had to be part of the overall settlement, because of the irish question. now, she is adamant, it's up for renegotiation. something happens, she steps aside and then moves on. she is not the only actor on stage though. if she doesn't get it through on tuesday, can she continue? you would imagine in normal political circumstances, if you have been charged for two or three years of the process, facing two major defeats, if she does go down to defeat on tuesday, they would think, is it time to hand over? when she lost the vote injanuary by a record amount, over 200, under normal circumstances, if i mess —— a prime minister would resign. she carried on. i have no doubt at all

that she would carry on if she loses the vote again on tuesday. what do you see the game plan as? as far as there is a longer term strategy, it is to keep on going. i think she will stand up if she is defeated again. i suspect there will be an extension voted for by the house of commons this week, questionable weather the eu will accept it. i expect she will say, i would use this time, i wanted to leave at the end of march, to continue the negotiation over the so—called backstop. that's what i expect, things moving so fast, it's very hard to predict. but, i don't think she will stand up and say, i have lost again, i will either renegotiate a much softer brexit to get through this house of commons, i don't think she will do that, i don't think she will stand down. the way you phrase the question, that is may, may, may,

may, may. the best lack all conviction. the ones who really wanted to replace her are keeping their light under a bushel, weather it's boris johnson getting a new haircut, the most dramatic thing he has done in two months. a leadership haircut? yes, a leadership haircut. then you have jeremy corbyn in the labour party, just to lead it to the cliff edge, possibly over the cliff edge... i think there is a reason it is all about theresa may. every time talk about it on this programme, it always comes down to her. and she gets away with it! it is the ultimate irony, she is the most fragile prime minister since 1945, and she is pulling all the levers. i think lever is a pun, because she is a leaver, isn't she? what brexit has also done, it has

degraded the conservative party in a way that has made it inevitable that brexit will be a disaster. because what it has done is that it has broken out into two halves, one is this really ideological, old school, almost uber—thatcherite faction that no one wants to see in power. then there is the other part, which is the sort of dead behind the eyes, managerial, david cameron leaders who got his year in first place. brexit has broken the conservative party wide open. we can see there really is nothing there. and because brexit requires such a vision and such imagination and such conviction, people have not been forthcoming because they are just not there. so the bigger problem, i think, for the politics of the uk is that brexit has bankrupted the leading party and it has created a shadow

of the opposition party, because they're always cast now — i feel very sorry forjeremy corbyn actually because he came to power to talk about the nhs and of things affecting peoples lives. but he became shanghai'd by brexit. we have a sort of radiation sickness that has affected both parties, we are in an even more impossible place. it is a very difficult brexit question which needed robust... but to the system is so blocked. let's move on to macron. while british politics is consumed by backstop clauses — a french president is thinking big. in a letter to the more than 500 million citizens of the european union, emmanuel macron talks of a renaissance. he even suggests the uk will find a place in a reformed europe. but, with many centre parties in a battle for survival against the rise of the far right across the continent — who willjoin his chorus

for the ode ofjoy? marc? macron, this time, has not taken a general view and general principle. he goes to into a very detailed proposition which goes towards changing the schengen free movement, new policy. helping citizens of europe facing the effects of globalisation, all the very interesting separate accounts. the problem is that, at the moment, europe is completely divided between the macron type and the pro—europe, moderate, or the rest. eastern europe, italians, who want to return to one nation state. so macron is now putting himself as the head of this new coalition

that could save europe from the bad situation it is in, against populism, knowing that there are european elections and the polls show that he is ahead in france, compared to madame le pen, who is retrograding. so it's working but the problem is, macron also thinks that he has to make a stand, otherwise, germany will dominate europe. i do think that even as we get ready to leave brexit it hasn't stopped the filters through the british press being a little inaccurate in some quarters. i do think that we overplay this right—wing populism, i prefer to call it neo—fascism because that is what it really is. take the last french election, i think there is a segment of french

political analysis that says the scale of macron's victory was actually against marine le pen. i think if you look at the some of the reporting, obviously, you see the five star movement, right—wing populist giving the middle finger to the establishment, there were genuine left—wing people who felt that the socialist party was a right wing technocratic party. it is fragmenting. when that government inevitably falls, it is italy, they follow every 18 months, we will see what the new alignment is. most importantly, the evp, the right—wing group in the european parliament. it's considering suspending 0rban's party from their grouping because they find that he is gone too far. it took them a while, didn't it?

three years ago, the christian democrats thought 0rban was an ally, now they say he is chasing out universities, completely controlling the press. he is perhaps at the centre of a certain amount of corruption. this is what politics are about. people in this country always forget, the eu is not an economic thing, it is a political thing. but, within that politics is an economic reality. people realise you get a better economy by being united in the single market, so the politicians have to learn out. you say you cannot fast forward reality, but the kinds of reforms that marc was describing in the letter from macron, the efforts to actually think how europe might work and function better. david cameron tried to go to europe before the referendum and said, would like to think about reform?

one of the critical things in the letter, is that the vast numbers of migrants coming from sub—saharan africa and got in these terrible boats and all ended up in italy, what he is saying about the schengen is, if you're in it, then you all have an obligation to take. if the port of entry is cicely, fine. —— sicily. but everybody in schengen has to take their share of these migrants. is that realistic to be talking about that? i think, immigration was what set of this conflagration. austerity, yes. but, it was immigration that really set it off. it wasn'tjust immigration though. i'm no fan of macron, but i do think someone needs to do this, to create a vision, to talk about the stuff without playing handmaiden to populism. that is where the centre and the left have fallen down in the past two decades. when they see that immigration is something that the bout have used to get votes, they have tried to outflank them or keep quiet.

that is where immigration becomes toxic, not because it is happening, but because people do not lead on the narrative on immigration. when merkel did it was too late, and she was alone. i admire macron or any centrist or leftist figure standing up saying, we have a problem with immigration, the only way to resolve it is to go through. we need to have solidarity, we share this common economic agreement, we share borders, we need to resolve it together. as opposed to saying, we understand people have legitimate concerns about immigration, we must listen to them. that is a copout and what we are in this situation. do you think it was wise to put so many issues in that letter to the climate bank, to the security agency. we have seen grand visions from marketing before, european army, eurozone reform, it'll happen.

—— little happened. there is a risk that macron is the ideas guy. he comes out, wants to talk, wants to debate and have these conversations. it's not the usual. it's not necessarily pie in the sky. i think is because the tenant of it, it is cooperative and visionary. the success of populism, i do agree that the pendulum has slightly swung, i think the success of populism has created a vision. weather it is nostalgic, or their establishment of hierarchy. where the centre and the left the failed is creating that vision. first of all, cameron's renegotiation was just unrealistic. he was trying to get something on free movement, something that is not going to happen. the irony is that if the uk does leave the eu, it will probably

reform in some of the ways that macron has outlined and the uk might have wanted to, but they will be out. the other thing is, in terms of the uk, brexit has caused the schism in the deceptive party. this schism led to brexit. the conservative party in the uk and europe has had a crisis for at least 20—38 years. this is brought down three conservative prime minister is and will bring down a four. that is relevant to populism in the eu. only the uk has a mainstream party, so hung up about the eu, in the end, a substantial number wanting to leave from that mainstream party. most of the rest of the eu has fringe parties, fringe candidates campaigning to leave, but not the mainstream parties. but, when these populist parties

surge in the polls and did quite well, instead of establishing momentum, the worry and leaders resign at the moment they get anywhere. there are some predictions that european elections in may, the big blocks, the epp will sting about, the fringe parties with the populist, xenophobic agendas will grow and ultimately have a kind of antiaging or paralysing minority. do you buy that? now, i don't. there are three parties. there is also the liberal party. there are the socialist and there are conservatives. together, they will hold the balance of power, they will of the divide jobs between themselves. the populists will still be on the fringe of the european parliament. the european parliament is very important now, much more important in terms of policy—making than it was in the past.

they won't let them. i think it's fine that we have parties that are eurosceptic and populist, that will try and agitate their bases on resentment against the eu. the important thing is to have a bullock when it comes to these parties. where the uk failed, piggybacked these other issues onto it which are not related to the eu at all, the mainstream parties caved. there is an integral issue within the conservative party with the eu in the first place. if you have a political body in the eu which has a sensible mainstream centre that can counter the rhetoric of populist parties and give them representation,

then that's absolutely fine. presumably, they must be scalable at the european level. questions about macron's letter, do you think the response of other european leaders suggest that the vision thing can be coalesced into something bigger? it is notjust may on the stage like the uk, we have a europe with more than 500 million citizens and lots of different governments, you need a bargain. i think that is one of the unfair questions about the eu. either you are all on board or not on board and it is all falling apart. it is a work in progress, it is about making sure that at least the conversation is had. i think when people make necessary noises, there is a sense that there's a common vision, even if not everybody is on board, the people, say they don't agree with the letter — that's also fine. it is not the death knell of the eu, it doesn't need to be.

i really think, at the end of the day, the eu hopes britain won't leave. macron is clear — go, sort your stuff out, then come back. i think that is the essential thing from most european capitals. could be a long wait. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. good morning. if you got significant

travel plans or outdoor events this week it is probably a good idea to stay abreast of the weather forecast. a stormy week ahead, severe gales at times, some of the rain really quite heavy. fingers crossed they will be drier and brighter interludes in between. in fa ct, brighter interludes in between. in fact, we should see the first of those dry interludes today with this ridge of high pressure building from the west. it will not last very long. already an area of low pressure starting to push in from the atlantic. that will set on tuesday into wednesday. a few wintry showers further north and west of thing. they will ease, it is going to bea thing. they will ease, it is going to be a breezy day throughout the day, they will be clear skies and sunshine coming through, and temperatures will peak at 8— 11 degrees. lighter winds than yesterday and for many it will feel warmer. the cloud, rain and winds will start to strengthen by the end of the day of this area of low pressure pushes in from the atlantic. plenty of isobars around that lota note that we are likely to see gales, in fact, severe gales, later on. some of that rain is quite

heavy. on west facing coasts we are likely to see a couple of inches as it drifts steadily east. gusts of winds 40—50 miles an hour, maybe 60 miles an hour plus unexposed coast. the wrangle a youth through the south—east and behind that we will see a trail of showers, some of them heavy with some hail, sleet and snow mixed in. top temperatures on tuesday of 7— 10 degrees. the strong list of the winds look likely to be through tuesday night at the moment. on the southern flank of this low pressure system as it drifts across scotla nd pressure system as it drifts across scotland overnight. we could see gusts of winds in excess of 70 miles an houron gusts of winds in excess of 70 miles an hour on exposed coastlines, which is certainly worth bearing in mind if you have travel plans overnight on tuesday. so stay abreast to your local bbc radio station for any travel disruption., northern local bbc radio station for any travel disruption. , northern ireland northern england. —— travel disruption for scotland, northern ireland and northern england. the winds will slowly start to abate as we go through the day, the strongest

of the winds on wednesday morning a particularly on exposed coasts. as we go into the afternoon those winds should begin to ease. the highest values are likely to be 8—11. take care.