thinking about how brexit would welcome to bbc news — affect northern ireland was an i'm christian fraser in westminster. afterthought. we had not invested enough time thinking through that injust an hour's time, theresa may faces the prospect today at 5: and coming up with the solution. the theresa may is facing of another parliamentary defeat. the prospect of another backstop is there for good reason. i parliamentary defeat within a few back in the commons after late—night hours on her brexit deal. talks in strasbourg, never accepted the narrative that the prime minister claimed she'd making her way to the commons has grown on this side of the house achieved the assurances mps had asked for. after late—night talks recently and on some of the benches in strasbourg, the prime the danger for those of us minister claimed she'd now opposite that the backstop is some who want to deliver, achieved the assurances to have faith with the british mps had asked for. kind of entrapment mechanism. i public and deliver on their vote the danger for those of us who want to deliver, for brexit, is that if this vote to have faith with the british regard that as a conspiracy theory. is not passed tonight, public and deliver on their vote if this deal is not passed, for brexit, is that if this vote i have tested this you with ministers in europe when i visited then brexit could be lost. is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed, as part of the select committee, i but the mood of the day has been set then brexit could be lost. by the attorney general who believes the risk of the uk being tied to eu the prime minister has, made individual visits as well and rules after brexit is still there. despite a very extensive delays, talk to trade and legal experts in achieved not a single change the uk who also reject this let me make it clear. conspiracy theory that the backstop to the withdrawal agreement. has been cooked up as an entrapment not one single word has changed. the legal risk as i set it out mechanism between the irish government and the eu commission to in my letter of the 13th the mood was set earlier in the day when the attorney—general said somehow lock the uk long—term into the risk of the uk being tied an arrangement we do not want. i'm to eu rules after brexit had been reduced, but was still there. most grateful to the right

honourable member. i would just like as a result, mrs may's parliamentary partners, the dup of northern ireland, said the right honourable gentleman to they would be opposing the deal. ta ke the right honourable gentleman to take a moment to reflect upon the advice given by the chief constable and members of the erg — the group of conservative brexit supporters — of the police service of northern have said they too will refuse ireland who has asked and quite to support the deal. rightly, the government has conceded we'll have the latest to his request of over 300 from westminster additional police officers... as the prime minister faces the prospect of another defeat in a couple of hours' time. exchange are still going on in the the other main story on bbc news at 5: commons. many speakers challenging the uk in suspending all boeing 737 borisjohnson earlier. max passenger planes from its airspace after commons. many speakers challenging boris johnson earlier. but commons. many speakers challenging borisjohnson earlier. but here i'm sunday's crash in ethiopia. boeing says it has full confidence joined byjerryjones, the former in the plane's safety. adviser to theresa may. what is your reading of where this vote is going? no good for the prime minister, it is going to be bleak and the idea that expectation management is trying to frame it as though 100 would not be so bad, that is a mountain that would still be left for her decline. the eu has said it's 5'clock. this is it, no more, we are not

we're live at westminster where right now things are not negotiating any further, take it or looking good for the prime minister leave it. and they are going to after she presented her brexit deal leave it. and they are going to leave it. and they are going to to the house of commons for a significant vote leave it. let's say it is a big defeat, what then? i think the within a couple of hours. following late—night talks with eu strategy if you can call it that, leaders in strasbourg, the way in which theresa may at the prime minister urged mps to back what she said was least has managed the past few an "improved deal". months, just to keep grinding on, will have come to the end of the road. the idea that incrementally you can get people over to your site but the attorney general — in his legal opinion — and particularly with the use of the told mps that while the risk of staying in the irish cliff edge just beggars belief. the backstop had been reduced, only power she had is the idea of it was still a risk. a key group of conservative mps — the jeopardy of no deal and the and the dup of northern ireland — cliff edge and now people are saying have both rejected the deal. they say the legal assurances just take ownership of the fact that secured by mrs may are not enough to prevent the uk being tied you are getting rid of that cliff permanently to the eu if a long—term edge. i do not get that. the idea trade agreement can't be reached. that she could keep on with that we'll be talking to key strategy is not going to work. but parliamentarians and we'll be at the moment it is not all one—way getting the latest signals from within the palace traffic, one labour mp jim of westminster on what's likely fitzpatrick this afternoon had to happen later this evening. indicated he would support the prime

minister and now has said he would vote against. if she keeps having the campaigners here are in full voice. we start with our political meaningful vote number three, four correspondent alex forsyth. orfive, meaningful vote number three, four or five, that would meaningful vote number three, four orfive, that would do nothing other this morning, westminster was braced than harden that kernel of for another big moment. a day that will decide the fate resista nce of the prime minister's brexit plan. than harden that kernel of resistance against her. that notion that she could herself take the prime minister. ownership of the extension of theresa may, not for the first article 50, but that could get her time losing her voice, just when she wants to be heard. some time, does that make sense? she you may say that, but you should hearjean—claude juncker‘s voice has taken ownership of a lot of as a result of our conversations... things that were other peoples ideas trying to persuade mps to get the brady amendment, the malthouse behind her deal tonight. the danger for those of us compromise, she has been backed into who want to deliver, a corner and she has proceeded with to have faith with the british a corner and she has proceeded with public and deliver on their vote a course of action that she said in for brexit, is that if this vote is not passed tonight, the past she would never go down. if this deal does not pass, but it is a pretty pitiful spectacle then brexit could be lost. of the moment, she was in the she insisted, after meeting eu leaders yesterday, chamber this afternoon, someone in that she had secured legal changes her own corner it would have thrown to the deal, addressing concern about plans for the irish border. in the towel if that was a boxing match. i think that's practical for i fought hard and explored every idea and avenue her, and all of us i'm sure have to address these concerns, great sympathy seeing her really at including a time limit, a unilateral exit mechanism, the end of her tether physically and

or the replacement of the backstop with alternative arrangements. i would imagine emotionally as well. but the spectacle that we as a the house knows how country are presenting to the rest complex negotiations work. of the eu and the world is really ultimately, you have to practice the art of the possible. damaging stuff. it needs to come to an end and find some way out of i am certain that we have secured the very best changes which were available. that. pretty unstoppable pressure to so what has changed? the backstop, the plan to avoid replace theresa may? that would be a checks on the irish border, has not been removed. there is a new legal document, step in any direction, not plus a declaration by the uk, necessarily in the right direction but at least it would be some kind emphasising it is meant to be of forward momentum i think more temporary and in the uk could challenge the eu likely that if we are genuinely if it was deliberately blocking a way out. stuck and paralysed as we find both sides have committed ourselves, then we'll have to look to finding an alternative at of the other bigger measures, a to the backstop by december 2020. members of the government general election, second referendum, rallied round this morning, or whatever, that will come right urging mps to back this deal. it is the only way we can really back under the table when this vote is done and dusted this evening. guarantee to deliver brexit. i hope they all support it, they have to be options on the it is good news for britain. table, i suspect that theresa may it really has now achieved everything that we hoped will try to eke out another few days we could achieve, in very,

very difficult negotiations. heading up towards the european will you be changing council, one last push and all the your legal advice? rest, but the numbers are not there. this man's view was key, geoffrey cox, the attorney general. in terms of peoples perception of this place, what would be the plus he issued his legal advice this morning. pressure muck in terms of our he said that the risk of the uk politics it is damaging but one being tied to the backstop thing worries me even more, if we indefinitely has been reduced, but crucially, it has have eu elections in the next few not been eliminated. weeks or months because it might be sirjeremy corbyn. that legally, we're still in the eu, in parliament this afternoon, some tories lent their support to the prime minister and her deal, and all citizens of the eu, we are but many mps were far from convinced. entitled to be represented in brussels and strasbourg. the problem the withdrawal agreement with that is they would be joke is unchanged and the political declaration is unchanged. elections, perceived by the vast majority of the electorate as a the joint statement is a legal interpretation of what is in com plete majority of the electorate as a complete farce and sherrard pulled the withdrawal agreement. up complete farce and sherrard pulled up and think of the people that we the unilateral statement would send back to brussels, does is the uk government trying not bear thinking about. you would to fool its own backbenchers because the eu has not getjoke candidates even signed up to it. not bear thinking about. you would get joke candidates and not bear thinking about. you would getjoke candidates and candidates we would never want to represent us crucially, the dup has said ina way we would never want to represent us they will not back the deal in a way that could be utterly and several senior brexiteers have corrosive not just to in a way that could be utterly corrosive notjust to british politics but to the whole european signalled the same. the backstop is unacceptable

in its present form, politics but to the whole european politics more broadly. and that is why that has to be a big worry here and we are profoundly determined to vote against this withdrawal and in the rest of the eu as well. agreement for those reasons alone. it isa and in the rest of the eu as well. it is a blind as your previous guest so, as westminster watches said, that is putting it mildly. joe and waits, it seems the prime minister has another uphill struggle to get the support she needs. jones there. our thanks to him for many minds already turning joining us. here at westminster we to what might happen next. are still keeping an eye on events in the commons. stephen crabb the former cabinet minister is still on indeed, not long to go, less than a his feet. let's just talk to the couple of hours until the vote is called by the speaker in the house labourmp his feet. let's just talk to the labour mp andy mcdonald, the shadow transport secretary. what is your of commons. joining me now is the education secretary — damian hinds. secretary of state, thank you for reading of things now? as we speak, joining us. how do you read things? the prime minister, her strategy is we are made to debate at the moment, we will have the vote at the end of the debate, it has been a passionate in tatters and were heading towards the boat at seven o'clock and no debate, as it has for a couple of reason to believe anything other yea rs debate, as it has for a couple of years or more now. debate, as it has for a couple of years oi’ more now. we are debate, as it has for a couple of years or more now. we are getting than she will suffer a heavy defeat. closer to this vote, it is important then it is a question of where we go we get this through. it is a good, balanced deal. if it doesn't go tomorrow, obviously on the no deal

vote and then thereafter for any through, mps cannot assume that their own preferred solution happens inside. things will then become extension. she could not have made a unpredictable, various people think greater mass of this as she had they could make no deal happen, or they could make no deal happen, or they could make brexit not happen at all. you cannot be absolute sure, and this deal should be voted tried. they are sadly in this through. yesterday, lots of talk that the prime minister was heading position now and this is a complete for a heavy defeat. and then, mess. at times like this people suddenly, there was a slight change clearly wa nt of temperature and this morning, mess. at times like this people clearly want clarity, they want another change, after the attorney people to show leadership. what will labour be saying in terms of the general‘s advice came out. how significant was the attorney options that it thinks that people general‘s advice in terms of the should consider, if this vote goes minds ofa general‘s advice in terms of the minds of a lot of your colleagues? are a lot of people were keen to see against the prime minister tonight, what geoffrey cox came back with in what will you be saying? if it goes his legal opinion as the attorney against the prime minister and we general. he gave a very straightforward opinion, which was cannot guarantee that, but we have said consistently there is a way that if the eu were in breach of its through this and we have set out obligations under the withdrawal clearly what our plan is in terms of agreement, then you can exit the backstop, and that is exactly the customs union and close alignment sort of reassurance that most collea g u es sort of reassurance that most colleagues were looking for, that it with the single market and was not possible for the eu to seek

protection of workers' rights for to trap us into this backstop the eu have said that that is the arrangement indefinitely. why do so many of your colleagues seem not to basis for discussion and potential be satisfied with that? as you know, agreement. clearly they will not wa nt to agreement. clearly they will not there are and always have been a want to reopen this withdrawal agreement again but if it is heavily whole range of views, and people debated this evening as we expect, ta ke and we head towards the rejection of whole range of views, and people take an extremely purist view. others, i have been the next couple no deal, i would employ the prime of hours, i hope they will come minister to look again at the proposal that we have made, around to supporting this deal. something that could unite enough because you don't have to necessarily love every single line people in this place but more of the deal, you just have to prefer importantly, leave us seeing a way it to some actually available alternative. and there is no majority in parliament for any one forward for our country. at the of the seven or eight different moment i'm very worried, nissan have alternative models that people are advocating. there is no majority for announced that they will no longer any of those. this is a good and produce a certain model at balanced deal, it is compromised, sunderland and that is terrifying but it should work for both people for the nasty —— the north—east of who voted leave and remain, and i hope we will get that through england. these are the consequences of this chaotic brexit that theresa tonight. you are saying you think may has foisted upon us and we have this deal still has a chance of got to bring this to an end and getting through. a lot of your

collea g u es getting through. a lot of your colleagues think it is dead the hopefully the start of that process water. we are still made debate, we will be this evening. if the vote haven't yet had the vote. this is has gone against the prime minister what we do, and the sequence we do and she responds by saying she things in. we have the debate, we proposes an extension of article 50, have the discussions. during the course of the day, a number of collea g u es would labour back that?” course of the day, a number of colleagues have been coming forward and saying i will support this deal proposes an extension of article 50, would labour back that? i think the extension is inevitable but it is even though i did before, because the length of that because if it goes beyond the date of the european these assurances work. i think that isa these assurances work. i think that is a very positive thing. but we need more of them to do that in the elections we probably will have to next couple of hours, that is what have meps back in brussels in the we are working towards. the prime minister spelt out what would happen summerand have meps back in brussels in the summer and beyond. so that is very if the deal didn't go through tonight. a vote tomorrow on the no difficult, and we need to have a purpose for that extension and i deal option, and then another vote would employ the prime minister to on extending article 50. what do you look again at our proposal and see think that would do for people's if we can secure consent and view of the political process?m agreement across the house. that is think that would do for people's view of the political process? it is the way that we can make some worth saying, motions in parliament progress and it is still not too are amendable, so people can put late for her to do that. when people down amendments to these motions on the speaker will then decide which are starting to talk now, we spoke amendments are going to be selected. although it is true that no deal is tojoejones are starting to talk now, we spoke to joe jones a few are starting to talk now, we spoke tojoejones a few minutes ago about there as the default option in the inevitability of the general legislation, there are some people election or second referendum option in parliament who believe it is coming back on the table in a much possible to stop that happening. if

we we re bigger way, do think that that is possible to stop that happening. if we were to apply for an extension to realistic? when senior conservative article 50, we can only apply, members of parliament like charles request, we cannot guarantee that walker say that really theresa may will happen, and it would require if it goes the way we expect, we'll the unanimous agreement of all 27 see her mandate in ruins, and that a fresh mandate is going to be needed states will stop so we cannot for a government and a general guarantee what would happen. whereas if we get the vote through today, we election is inevitable, i think we do know what that is, it is a good, have to sit up and take notice. i balanced deal that gets us out of think that he is right about that, the eu, and is free movement of this parliament has just run into people, stocks are sending large the sand and we need to have a sums of money indefinitely, but does so which is good for people's jobs refreshment of parliament. and not and livelihoods. but you accept this just the issue of brexit, there is a asa and livelihoods. but you accept this as a massive challenge? you have the wider social economic problem and erg, who have made their minds up, they are not being addressed at the de dup, they have made their minds moment. so i see that as a logical up de dup, they have made their minds up already. the arithmetic looks extremely challenging for the prime consequence of the position in today. in terms of a public vote, minister. the erg is a group, it is not a single group with a single opinion, many esteemed colleagues in there will be a growing cry for that group have a whole range of opinions. some of them are probably are coming round to thinking this is whatever can approach an agreement the way to go. not least because of

the way to go. not least because of in this place, and i think that the risks of what will happen if we do not pass this deal, and things argument will go stronger and may well go in a direction that stronger and if the prime minister members of the erg would like less than they do with this current deal. wa nts to stronger and if the prime minister wants to not contemplate that issue we are not voting yet, the debate is than she has got to do an awful lot of compromising to secure a deal. still going on, there are more discussions to be had. thank you for and she hasjust joining us. the education secretary, of compromising to secure a deal. and she has just shown no appetite for that so far. but hopefully she may get a sense of reality tonight thanks to him forjoining us on what at around may get a sense of reality tonight ataround 7:30pm. may get a sense of reality tonight at around 7:30pm. thank you for is clearly a hugely significant day joining us. here outside the palace in this long brexit process. in a moment we'll speak of westminster and ten minutes to go to our brusells correspondent, adam fleming who is in strasbourg until the vote. i'm joined by the for us this evening, but first to the central lobby of the houses of parliament — head of eu trade and competition law and our chief political correspondent, vicki young. the education secretary they're ata head of eu trade and competition law at a london law firm. what is your still saying, vote comes up after reading of what the attorney general the debate, still suggesting there isa the debate, still suggesting there is a possibility that the prime minister will get this through. what was able to pronounce upon today? not surprising. there's a sense of is your sense of the numbers at this point? i would say there are not many people around here who think thatis groundhog day, we have not moved

many people around here who think that is the case. of course, there forward from november and so we have are some who are changing their an instrument, trying to explain minds, although, one labour mp who was going to back the deal has decided not to, because he feels, what good faith and bad faith would look like. a statement from the what is the point? if conservative mps are not willing to back it, then government which is not frankly why should labour mps? so it is legally binding, it is just what the looking bleak for the prime uk would like to see happen and then minister, particularly because the dup had said they will vote against thisjoint statement. so hopefully and they are, for many people, crucial in all of this, notjust people will start to look at the detail of what is on the table but tonight, but if they are not on side, then theresa may will find it beyond that it has not moved forward. the attorney general looked ha rd to side, then theresa may will find it hard to govern at all, because they at the backstop and said the risk of are propped up her government. the remaining were trapped as some would erg are meeting right now, the group say within it was reduced but that of conservative pro—brexit mps. they the risk was still there. correct, are not likely to stay as one, they have done up until now, but it is it depends on how far you see the eu certainly not the case that they will carry on doing so. i spoke to acting in bad faith but we have all been distracted by the legal text one senior member of that group and they said they were worried about but at the end of the day it is a brexit not happening. that is the practical question for that you get thing that is focusing the minds of rid of the backstop by negotiating a some of them, because they know that comprehensive trade agreement, the uncertainty that follows a

replacing a free border and customs defeat tonight means that they are not in control of the situation, the union with a trade agreement for the prime minister wouldn't necessarily be in control of the so they cannot difficulty with the trade agreement is we will go in the opposite be in control of the so they cannot be sure where it will end up. it direction and try to move regulations away from rather than that which is persuading some closer together as you normally do. conservatives, around 20, to change their mind. i spoke to one of them so it could take years for that the earlier. i didn't support the prime alternative is to find some minister deal when it was first technological solutions and again presented and i have change my mind very difficult, a 300 mile porous today. the reason i have changed my mind is that there are a number of politicians in the house of commons border, 200 for more crossings, 200 i don't want us to leave the eu at all full stop my view is that i do informal crossings across back guidance for the purpose of the real wa nt all full stop my view is that i do want to leave and i think this questions as opposed to the finesse doesn't do it. i don't want to wake of legal arguments. it could take up doesn't do it. i don't want to wake up in 48 hours' time and find we are still in the single market and yea rs of legal arguments. it could take years to find that replacement and customs union. is one of a few thatis years to find that replacement and that is why people were so exercised conservatives who will get behind about the longevity of the backstop. the prime minister. it comes down to whether they think this is their last chance. with brexitjust i7 absolutely, people were saying let's crack on with negotiating but days away, many conservative mps have campaigned for this for nonetheless the very nature of the task and difficulty of trying to decades. the question is whether they think this is the moment or push a square peg into the round whether they will have another chance to get a better kind of deal

and all eyes will be on the prime hole, that does not add up and hence minister this evening. we understand the difficulty. when we talk about that if she is defeated, she will get up and say something to the the difficulty. when we talk about commons, the question is, what will the unilateral declaration, someone said earlier today that was the uk that be? could she herself try to kind of talking to itself. have any seize the initiative? maybe herself potentially equal force or not? no, ask for an extension of article 50? nobody knows for sure, and i think it is an expression of what the uk thatis would like to do at some stage in nobody knows for sure, and i think that is what is so compelling about the future but no more than that. this evening, but also what is meaning that a son in downing street the eu, some people would say it are despairing. just a thought on would be prepared to turn a blind eye to some parts of it, to allow that, which is to do with a focus on the uk to say it if you like in the the prime minister's own position. she was clearly extremely tired absence of opposition to it, that after that late night session in strasbourg and her voice was clearly was kind of condoning it in effect? giving her problems today. is there a sense that if this defeat tonight that is how people are spending it. isa a sense that if this defeat tonight is a very heavy one, if it is, that good luck with that! but ultimately, there will be inevitably a bigger it does not work. that has chorus of voices questioning her characterised parts of the debate because on both sides we've had a future? as you say, the point about her voice going, thatjust shows how lot of wishful thinking. in many ways it is a false debate because ha rd her voice going, thatjust shows how hard she has been battling, trying business is desperate for clarity to get the changes to the withdrawal

and their spending so much time agreement. but i think it doesn't planning for no deal. they're help. she is in the commons trying desperate to know what is going to happen, they're planning for no deal to inspire the troops, trying to make it clear to them, she said this instead of getting on with is the moment when we have to come investment so it is very difficult for business. if the prime minister together and deliver on that referendum. it is just not as tonight or on thursday if mps vote powerful when her voice is croaking. at times, you could barely hear what on this, if there is an extension to she was saying. yes, there are lots article 50 of some kind, what are of questions, this has caught up theissues article 50 of some kind, what are the issues around that that you with theresa may's own leadership. think would be worthy of last week, i had three conservative consideration, things that would really align some people?m mps from different wings of the conservative party saying it was time for her to go, they didn't see consideration, things that would really align some people? it is any long—term future for her. and if interesting, in a letter accompanying the joint statement, tonight, the main plank of her policy, the deal she has been the commission hung out the fact working on, very much associated that you would need to have with her for so working on, very much associated with herfor so long, if it working on, very much associated with her for so long, if it goes elections if you go past the month down to another huge defeat, she is of may. let's take two years, it has forced to take no deal of the table, forced to take no deal of the table, forced to take no deal of the table, taken of may. let's take two years, it has ta ke n two of may. let's take two years, it has forced to ask for an extension, it ta ken two years not to of may. let's take two years, it has taken two years not to get anywhere. is hard to see where her authority is hard to see where her authority is going to come from. we will be so the political declaration is full back with you, thank you, vicki young. of ambivalence. so take those full let's go to strasbourg now and our brussels correspondent two years but what the eu will look adam fleming is there.

for in terms of any extension beyond a small period, as some form of we were following clearly the progress or lack of progress of those talks earlier. what is your sense of the view there today and democracy, a general election, a second referendum. it is going to the kind of interest there is now on this outcome in 90 minutes' time?l look for something decisive in terms ofa look for something decisive in terms of a democratic act to give us that huge amount of interest, obviously. extra time that we need. we shall people will be glued to their see what happens in an hour. thank screens to see the results tonight, you very much. a quick look back to but if it is a defeat, it will not come as a surprise. a lot of people said yesterday on the eu side, we just do not think theresa may has got the numbers to get this deal through. they were happy to help her see what is going on at the debate. as far as they could without contradicting their own position and own red lines, their own parameters, one thing is clear, you cannot talk the deal they had done with the uk of these benches about gaining last night. but it will not come as control, taking back control, only a surprise if the deal goes down tonight. i think we will get some immediately to cede control to the bland tweets from people on the eu house of commons and lose any further control we have to shape the side tonight, but the real information will come out tomorrow kind of brexit we would like. if morning. michel barnier, the chief honourable members on these benches negotiator, has a meeting pencilled do not like the deal as currently in with senior meps here in

constituted, let them spend the next strasbourg. at the same time in few months discussing and voting on brussels, the ambassadors from the eu 27 countries, the engine room for and then being outvoted on whether they like norway where we become and decision—making in brussels, they will have a meeting to think about will take, whether they want a the next steps. however, the eu is permanent customs union, not a also waiting for a settled position from the uk. is there a defeat? is temporary one as we would find in the backstop, a permanent one. nick no deal taken off the table? and then on thursday, is their own herbert, the mp there, making his contribution to the debate which parameters, the deal they had done with the uk last night. but it will not come as a surprise if the deal will continue for another hour. full coverage of that on bbc news as the goes down tonight. i think we will get some bland tweets from people on the eu side tonight, but the real information will come out tomorrow morning. michel barnier, the chief debate unfolds. george is here with negotiator, has a meeting pencilled in with senior meps here in strasbourg. at the same time in brussels, the ambassadors from the eu 27 countries, the engine room for decision—making in brussels, they bbc news at six in a few minutes but will have a meeting to think about the next steps. however, the eu is in the meantime let's join also waiting for a settled position from the uk. is there a defeat? is no deal taken off the table? and a big day in politics and the big then on thursday, is there approval from the house of commons for an date with the weather, we have a extension? at what point witt theresa may, and request that extension? the eu are saying it storm approaching that has already brought some wet and windy weather would be up to theresa may to talk about a time frame and time limit and more to come. we can expect for the extension. there are two reasons for that, the eu does not wa nt to reasons for that, the eu does not want to be seen to be dictating how severe gales and further heavy rain

long the eu could stay in the eu. imagine how that would go down back through tonight and tomorrow. this home. that would make no'sjob even harder. i don't think the eu has a is the culprit, storm gareth. you settled position yet about how long the extension period would be. it seems we are talking about this now can see this big swell of cloud and and getting ahead of ourselves. as you said, a lot of drama to unfold cold air tucking away from it. the in the next 90 minutes. on the possible extension, there are rumours again flying around in the last 10—15 minutes at westminster. main body of the storm is the prime minister may be prepared, when she speaks tonight, if she approaching but before that we had loses the vote, she may be prepared some heavy rain earlier on. some to say that she will be requesting some kind of extension at that point. what would be the response to that? it isn't just point. what would be the response to that? it isn'tjust a matter of time snow mixing in with that. scale, it is a matter of principle, really, and what they think the prime minister would be proposing as pa rt prime minister would be proposing as part of that extension. the first temperatures through the first part thing to say if the practicalities of the evening around six, seven, 8 and logistics, which always play a big role in this brexit process. this would be such a big decision about granting an extension and it degrees for them turning increasingly windy. the area of low has to be taken by all 27 countries. the assumption is it would have to be done by all 27 leaders. the next pressure, the storm system, starts time they meet is next thursday in to squeeze its way south. all the brussels, where brexit has already isobars squashing together and so been put on the agenda is the first the wind will be picking up this session at the summit next thursday. so it would be for them to make the

decision, but the ground would have evening. gusts of around 50, 60,70 to be laid, with meetings of ambassadors, the prime minister's miles an hour. very windy for parts advisors, documents being drafted, making sure it was all legal, so the of the midlands and north wales, but no one really mean for those strong discussion would start happening. then the eu would wonder what the winds. —— immune from those strong extension is for. the phrase you keep hearing is that there is no point prolonging the agony. so would winds. —— immune from those strong it bea point prolonging the agony. so would it be a technical extension to get a winds. a pretty rough night ahead deal voted on, get a deal through and temperatures between four and 7 and then get the legislation degrees for the soul are really implemented? or is it an extension blessed we start to tomorrow for a big political event in the uk morning. there could be some travel like another referendum or general problems, some bridges and election? or would be something even high—level routes could struggle a longer, because the situation in the little. some sunny spells and heavy uk was so bad and chaotic from an eu showers. the showers using a little point of view, they needed quite a as the day goes on for the highs of long time to get itself sorted out. or, could an extension be used in a nine, 12 degrees. and another tactical way? you hear some people saying, maybe it should be 21 months weather system pushing into the along, as long as the proposed picture, this one not so intense but brexit transition period. then still bringing some heavy bias of theresa may could use that as a rain and some strong wind. that tactic to present to mps for another

vote in a couple of weeks saying, ashes in a very unsettled and the well, do you want to stay in the eu week. we expect heavy downpours. for another two years? or do you wa nt for another two years? or do you want another third go at voting for my deal? thank you, adam. weather warnings are in force for let's have a look in the house of the next few days and you can check those on the bbc weather website. commons. boris johnson has just started speaking... as the attorney general has confirmed in his admirably honest advice, this backstop doesn't just admirably honest advice, this backstop doesn'tjust divide our country in fundamental ways, it ties our hands for the future and it sets us on our hands for the future and it sets usona our hands for the future and it sets us on a path to a subordinate relationship with the eu, which is still, despite what we were told yesterday, clearly based on the customs union and on large parts of the single market. i give way, with pleasure. i am grateful to the right honourable gentleman for allowing me to intervene. it gives me an opportunity to remind him of the many opportunities that he took during the eu referendum campaign to

assert that this country was going to take back control of its border, its borders. may i ask the right honourable gentleman, has he ever visited south armagh? how does the right honourable gentleman, with the greatest respect, think he is going to take back control of the border without the backstop arrangement?” am most grateful... i have certainly visited the places that she mentions and at the times of the troubles, and at the times of the troubles, andi and at the times of the troubles, and i can tell you that nobody wants those types of border controls to come back, least of all the government of dublin or of london, or indeed in brussels. by the way, nobody thinks it is necessary, under any circumstances, for a hard border control to return in northern ireland. what i think her constituents will want is for this country to have the unilateral right of exit from the backstop. and that

is not what the british people are getting. if she will allow me, i will make some progress. i want to stress this point. i cannot really accept the repeated assertion of the attorney general. in his very powerful speech this afternoon, that there is a minimum at legal risk of us there is a minimum at legal risk of us being trapped in the prison of the backstop. it is now more than one year since i stood in downing street and was told there was a minimal legal risk that we would even have to enter the backstop. that is not a view that i believe could be plausibly now defended by the government. i give way. of course there is a risk with the backstop, it would be infantile to suggest there isn't a risk. but does he not agree with me that there is also a very great, if not much larger risk, in respect of a no deal outcome, would he recognise that?”

will come to that, but i am grateful to him for conceding that it was a lwa ys to him for conceding that it was always infantile to pretend that there was no risk of getting into there was no risk of getting into the backstop, because that was for a long time the contention of those who proposed the backstop should be. iam afraid who proposed the backstop should be. i am afraid that this deal has now reached the end of the road. and if it is rejected tonight, i hope that it is rejected tonight, i hope that it will be put to bed, and we can all face up to the reality of the position and the opportunity that we have. what we need to do then, now, is to behave not to morosely, but as a great country does. and we have two options. we can either decide that if the eu is unwilling to accept the minor changes we proposed that we will leave without a deal, and yes, i accept that that is in

the short—term the more difficult road, but in the end, it is the only safe route out of the abyss, and the only safe path to self—respect. or, we can decide to take a route that will end in humiliation, accepting arrangements with the eu which seem to limit disruption in the short—term, but will leave us as an eu protectorate with many important rules set elsewhere. just to take two exa m ples rules set elsewhere. just to take two examples of what could happen, what is the worst that could happen. any number of rules and regulations, the financial services industry is set by its leading competitors, emphatically not what the city once. another example, the commission has already made clear that it wants to use the clause of the treaty to bring in the existing treaty, to bring in the existing treaty, to bring in the existing treaty, to bring ina bring in the existing treaty, to bring in a majority voting on

taxation. and we would be subject to that vote in which we, in this country, would not participate. borisjohnson, the country, would not participate. boris johnson, the former country, would not participate. borisjohnson, the former foreign secretary. he is setting out some of the reasons why he is deeply dissatisfied with the deal that mrs may has brought. of course, we heard this from him before, but he is making his case in the house of commons. the vote will take place at 7pm this evening, but borisjohnson just one of the latest of the big parliamentary figures to be making his case known in the commons this evening. let's go straight into the palace of westminster. let's get the thoughts now from the labour mp and chair of the exiting the eu committee — hilary benn — whojoins me now from the central lobby in the houses of parliament. what is your thought on where we are now? i think the speech we have just been listening to probably explains in pa rt listening to probably explains in part why it is like the prime minister's deal will be defeated again this evening. after the flurry of publication of papers last night,

and the attempts on the part of the government to talk up what they had bought back from their negotiations, the truth is the attorney general‘s latest letter to the prime minister makes it quite clear that as long as the eu continues to negotiate in good faith, there is no unilateral way of getting out of the backstop for the uk. i should say, i don't have a problem with the backstop, because it is a guarantee, above all, to the good friday agreement, the piece that that has brought to the piece that that has brought to the people of northern ireland. but, if as many conservatives as i —— as i have heard in the chamber today, are assured by those assurances, thenit are assured by those assurances, then it looks as if the prime minister will be defeated again tonight. the one thing i would agree with boris johnson on, tonight. the one thing i would agree with borisjohnson on, if nothing else, is that if the prime minister loses again to a large margin, i think her deal is dead. tomorrow, we will be asked to vote on whether we are prepared to leave the eu with no

deal, that would be a disaster. for the british economy, and i would expect the house to reject that, too. therefore, we will, on thursday, get to the point of having to apply for an extension of time, more time, to the eu. do you think that the eu will look favourably on that the eu will look favourably on that if it is just what they call it technical extension? what will that mean in the longer term for us?l technical extension would be if the deal is to pass tonight, because i think it is recognised with 17 days left, there is no time to pass the necessary legislation. but i don't think as things stand, that is what will happen. so it would be more time, isaid will happen. so it would be more time, i said just now in my speech, it has to be for a purpose. i think the first purpose should be for mps to see whether there is any other kind of agreement that could command a majority in the house of commons, thatis a majority in the house of commons, that is why they select committee after the defeat of the prime minister's deal last time said they should hold a series of indicative

votes, asking if you want a free trade agreement, a customs union, a deal like norway. and see whether we can find deal like norway. and see whether we canfind a deal like norway. and see whether we can find a proposition which would command the majority's support. the second thing to vote on, this is the other recommendation we made, is should be go back to the british people, if we can reach an agreement ona people, if we can reach an agreement on a deal, to see whether this is the kind of brexit that they felt they voted for originally? i think they voted for originally? i think the question on that is simply this, do the british people have a right to change their mind? do people also have the right to stick to the decision they reached last time? but if parliament is deadlocked, and thatis if parliament is deadlocked, and that is the other possibility, and if we cannot get a further extension, we cannot fall over a cliff at the end ofjune, if parliament is going to say tomorrow, we are not going to fall off a cliff at the end of march, the only way to resolve this is to go back to the british people and ask them to make the final decision. how much closer

will be true that if the prime minister's deal is defeated tonight? i think will be taking an important step, because i think it is clear her deal will not get a majority in the house of commons. then we have to deal with the most important threat, the threat of a no—deal brexit, it will be interesting to see how the prime minister votes on that. she said for two years that no deal is better than a bad deal, and she accepted that there isn't a bad deal on the table, she calls it a good deal even though i think it is bad. therefore, no deal must be worse than her deal, logically, the prime minister should vote against a no—deal brexit on the 29th of march tomorrow. gradually, as each of the alternatives is voted down, you get to the point where other parliament can agree on something that will get through and then you can put that to the people in a referendum, or we get a deadlock, in which case, you one would have to go back to the british people and say, this is the only deal that has been negotiated,

but parliament thinks it is a bad dealfor the but parliament thinks it is a bad deal for the country, if you want that, vote for it, there isn't another leave deal. if you don't wa nt another leave deal. if you don't want that, then the inevitable consequences of that is that we will remain in the eu, and that would be a democratic decision for the british people to take in their circumstances. we were talking about the influence of the dup in terms of the influence of the dup in terms of the parliamentary arithmetic and today they have said they have seen the deal and they do not like it and will vote against it. our northern ireland economics and business editor, john campbell is in belfast for us. your reading of the way the political landscape is paired today? essentially the dup focused on that last line from the attorney general that we could be in a situation where everyone tries their hardest

but we still cannot get something to replace the backstop and in that scenario northern ireland would be stuck in the backstop and that is something they cannot accept. essentially for the dup the question of the backstop is existential, you could get into a situation where if the uk would be stuck in the backstop it would mean northern ireland being cut off from the rest of the uk and basically put on a conveyor belt to a united ireland. of course many see that differently but that is the reading from the dup and that is what is important tonight for that parliamentary arithmetic. just in terms of the way did you peak could move after this vote, let's say the prime minister does not get her way and we move into the no deal and then the extension vote, how the dup than conduct themselves? the dup have

been consistent and they say but no deal would be better than the deal to me currently has on the table and that puts them at odds with many people in the northern ireland business community. so i can easily see them saying we would rather have no deal than less bad deal and in terms of extension, i'm a bit less clear whether they would pull on that but any conversation i had recently with the dup has been that this negotiation is not over until the last minute, that downing street should not blink and we should negotiate with the eu up until the last minute when the uk is still within the eu because they still think there is a possibility however remote that the eu could crack at the last minute and make a big confession. that is the message that they will be giving to downing street. many thanks. let's look ahead to the prospects of the vote

and the options afterwards. let's get the thoughts of anne mcelvoy — senior editor at the economist and steven swinford — deputy political editor for the telegraph. we chatted yesterday and today is turning out to be even more surprising than we thought. what is the significance of that letter from the significance of that letter from the attorney general?” the significance of that letter from the attorney general? i think it pulled the rug from under it theresa may just at the point when there was a chink of light, she came back from strasbourg and i think that she was tentatively helpful. the way that it was phrased, but his strongly held legal conviction is that there not much room on a particular paragraph and that has caused ructions and changed the weather down here from theresa may being able to say, one more push and wear their tattoo is a fighting again for her deal. and really fighting also for her

political life. and what is your reading of the parliamentary arithmetic right now? it looks pretty grim, the question asked by cabinet ministers is how much she will be defeated by. they really are worried about this and the mood at cabinet this morning was also grim and sombre and if she is defeated, what would she do next is the question. let's say it is getting on for 200 very hefty loss again, how do you read her options then? there are rumours abound tonight but one of the things we've heard is the idea that she could take ownership of extending article 50 and stand up and say i'm going to request a short extension of article 50, i do not wa nt extension of article 50, i do not want to but that is where we are going up if she does not do that she has the prospect of mps voiced and

had to do that anyway. that might by hertime had to do that anyway. that might by her time but another cabinet minister said that that would backfire and be seen as a betrayal of brexit. if she loses the vote massively she will be in a bind anyway? she clearly is in a bind but the question is whether she will be at the door. many people have said she cannot hang on but she has got to run out of road at some point and i think there is an argument for her taking control of the extension of article 50 herself. she mooted technically also that this might be necessary. it might look like a desperate throw that everything pretty much is at the moment. but advice from geoffrey cox took at least three cabinet ministers i spoke to by surprise, they thought it was going to go better. i think eve ryo ne it was going to go better. i think everyone is feeling a bit surprised.

most did not expect him to do this. so if she cannot work in round what does she then do, she relies on the ha rd does she then do, she relies on the hard line brexiteers in the erg splitting. there are some signs of that happening. but the dup have come out against it so she has got to start from scratch and either go back and do a different deal entirely or the noises around her and whether she can continue are going to get louder. so the question is at what point does that momentum become unstoppable, because many people will be watching and thinking if she loses major parliamentary votes on this policy, twice, that would not be survivable.” votes on this policy, twice, that would not be survivable. i think it is survivable until someone else comes along and says i'm prepared to lead a group of people. i look around cabinet to see who is sitting behind her. but do you want to do

this, riding in on a slightly muddy charger at the moment. there has been a challenge? there is another option to extend article 50 and then she says she does not want to do it but is doing it in the national interest. and that she will go when the deal gets through. there is a head of steam building behind that. ican head of steam building behind that. i can see that perhaps proving a bit closer this week. the sense of people being ta ken closer this week. the sense of people being taken by surprise within cabinet on an issue of this importance again, what are your thoughts on the kind of pressure on the prime ministerfrom colleagues in terms of her leadership? pressure is building but talking to senior eurosceptics today, arch critics of the deal, they wanted to support the

deal, but when they saw the advice from geoffrey cox theyjust thought they could not swallow that. in black and white, that the backstop could endure indefinitely still. but there was still that goodwill from senior eurosceptics,