tv Dateline London BBC News March 24, 2019 11:30am-12:01pm GMT
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this is bbc news. i'm martine croxall. do that task. the headlines at midday. of ambition to want to do that task. i have absolute aberration for the senior conservatives tell theresa may her brexit deal way she is going about it. with the is more likely to pass, if she stands down as prime minister. deal have more of a chance if she but a former leader says their behaviour‘s appalling. stepped down? the deal needs to be there will be real disgust at the behaviour of some of our cabinet ministers, who are not looked at on its merits. —— would fit for their positions if they behave like this. the deal? people need to recognise they should be apologising and they should shut the deal? people need to recognise the enormous amount of work the up, for god's sake. prime minister has put into this. i one of those suggested as caretaker prime minister, have seen a woman motivated by the if theresa may were to step down, is her deputy, david lidington. national interests, getting the best he says he's not interested. dealfor this country, national interests, getting the best deal for this country, nothing national interests, getting the best i don't think i have any wish dealfor this country, nothing else. to take over from the pm. will there be indicative votes next i think she is doing a fantasticjob. week? there will be a nation on the one thing that working closely with the prime minister does is cure monday. a number of amendments have been tabled and we will have to see you completely of any lingering shred of ambition to want to do that task. which amendments the speaker selects and what the house come to our nose. rescuers are airlifting time for the weather. —— on those. hundreds of passengers lots of spring sunshine around today but further north and west is a
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different story, 40—50 mph winds and a rash of shells across scotland are falling as snow across the mountains. the showers will drift through northern ireland across the borders into north—west england later on this afternoon but elsewhere we keep the sunshine and it will be a beautiful afternoon with light winds, highest values of 14 degrees. cooler further north, 8-iodc. 14 degrees. cooler further north, 8—iodc. moving overnight, the week weather front will continue to slip south and by then a band of cloud and the odd spot of rain and behind it quite a clearance and with wind direction from the north—west, a cool start to monday morning. temperatures down to low single figures. it does look like the week ahead will be dry, settled and sunny, cool first thing in the morning but a lot of sunshine around for most of us. take care. now on bbc news, it's time for dateline london with shaun ley.
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hello and welcome to dateline london, the programme which brings together some of the uk's leading commentators with the foreign correspondents who file their stories for the folks back home under the dateline london. this week, theresa may puts herself on the people's side against parliament, but where does that leave brexit? and 52 years after israel occupied two thirds of syria's golan heights, does it matter that donald trump thinks it's time to recognise those facts on the ground? our dateline panel this week: the broadcaster brian o'connell, who reported the london beat for ireland's rte for more than 20 years. agnes poirier, who writes for the french news magazine marianne, has published a book about art and passion on the left bank of the seine. ned temko was editor of the jewish chronicle, and now writes regularly
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for the uk's observer newspaper. john fisher burns is a pulitzer prize—winning foreign correspondent, and former london bureau chief for the new york times. theresa may has experienced two gruelling years negotiating the uk's exit from the european union, and endured two humiliating parliamentary defeats on her brexit deal. on wednesday, something snapped. during prime minister's questions she accused mp5 of indulging in naval gazing rather than getting on with thejob. later that evening, she declared herself on the people's side in what she framed as a conflict between people and parliament. but hang on a minute. it was mrs may who fired the starting gun, laid down red lines for the negotiations. her first brexit secretary complained he was sidelined, her second was ignored, and the present one voted against her policy. brian, did it succeed, if the objective was to galvanise her troops, get them out of their torpor and get
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them ready for one last heave for brexit to push it over the line, did it achieve that objective? spreading the blame, in terms of leadership, if you compare what she did on wednesday night when she made that broadcast from downing street to jacinda ardern and what she said after the attacks in christchurch, i think that tells you all you need to know about real political leadership. i think theresa may, her time is measured in days if not weeks in terms of remaining in downing street, that is for sure. i do not think there is any realistic chance after those remarks that any mp5 who might have been wavering might come down on her side rather than the other. i think her deal has had two goes and is dead in the water.
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you come to indicative votes, hands up who wants a norway style option, i do not see any chance of any of those getting a majority. that is the baffling thing, they are going to have these indicative votes, we are told they are going to have which somehow involves government putting the motion on the order paper or a collection of mps doing it and the government standing back? that is talking about stage two, the trading arrangement. we have not even completed stage one, the actual leaving. i wonder first before we get to that, what brian had to say about mrs may and the counter—productive remarks she made about parliament. it seems to me, as a schoolboy we used to talk about piling on. there has been a good deal of piling on in respect to mrs may.
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goodness me, could be not allow her some frustration after weeks, months, even years of suffering slings and arrows of the intolerant extremists in almost all parties and the insults they slung at each other, can we not allow her the indulgence of saying something which is basically true? she, like david cameron, has put party before national interest. she is the architect of her own downfall. i take a very different view of that, i think she came to the office in the most vexed circumstances possible. she was a remainer charged by the referendum with finding a way out of europe but she has been boxed in from the beginning. by the contending wings of her own party and by the intransigence of the european union.
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if i may, this is an indicative vote middle way attempt here. go for it! one of mrs may's strength is not collegiality and alliance building and i think that has been the failure. i agree, she had an untenable position. it did not help that she unnecessarily called a general election and ended up with a minority government but all that having been said, this is a backwards process. there is an argument and i think it was made at the time by some, that rather than burnish your leave credentials which was the point she was trying to make, by saying we will do article 5012 seconds after i get into power then figure out what i will do, there is a common—sense argument that you should have done some of the spadework. she simply would have run into the same intransigence both
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in brussels and here at home. i think we will have plenty of time. let us not smash any windows. we might smash a few out arguments but never windows. that is the good thing about this programme. is it right for parliament to be taking control of this process if that is what they do next week as they are threatening? yes, it is. clearly it is a system not to have a government doing it? the eu is doing that, throwing a lifeline to british democracy. what is going to happen is theresa may stays as pm. i don't think she will be next saturday. the house of commons needs to take
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over because if she is, ifjohn bercow allows her to put for the third time her deal, it is most probably going to be rejected. so now, you know, either they will revoke article 50, to reset the whole thing and another referendum or perhaps what british democracy was, or used to be admired throughout the world for doing, having a debate, not thinking about politics, the wayjeremy corbyn is doing. it is terrible what he is doing to the country. the opposition leader is not thinking about the country first — he is thinking the tories have collapsed and disintegrated so he can go to power. you think that would be a victory? well, it would and why doesn't the house of commons discuss what they want? perhaps it is norway, perhaps it is canada, perhaps it is remaining, and think about what is best for the country.
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i think the eu has been incredibly intelligent and creative and sorry, john, generous actually, because britain is our friend. jean—claude juncker said, i do not know i had so much patience. no one else knew that either! that is not the european union i have been watching for some time and i am old enough to belong to a generation where our fathers and grandfathers left the shores of this country to fight for liberation. for which we will be eternally grateful. there's not been a sign of that and there is a certain individuals, the former prime minister of belgium, who has been as intransigent and as unpleasant
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as any of the principle european leaders in all of this. i find myself unfashionable in thinking is that no legacy of understanding and gratitude for this country, which more than once in its history has stood alone and has embattled, and come and found despite its instincts to steer its own course, has always found destiny with europe? where is the resonance for all of this in the way europe had treated mrs may? whether or not you believe the eu has been intransigent, to go back to what is going to happen in the next couple of weeks, the one thing that is not going to change is the withdrawal agreement as it stands now. there are not going to reopen that. so it is that or it no deal? it is basically you take this withdrawal agreement or there is no deal, or you go for a longer extension to either have a general election or a second referendum,
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and if you do that, you have to have a party in the european elections and that would be a disaster. have we not now got to the point, and i wonder if there is any consensus, where actually a no—deal brexit, a process of departing from the european union, since we have already agreed we are leaving and the eu has planned for us leaving, accelerate the no—deal planning, agreeable sides there will be no additional tariffs and taxes on imports and exports, and to try and get to the second stage of the process of agreeing a future trading relationships? would that not be the sensible option rather than collectively banging our heads? it would be the least bad option but it would be still incredibly disruptive. haven't the last two years been incredibly disruptive? it would be worse economically,
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a disaster for this country. checking opinion polls, over 50% of leavers favour a no deal over other options, and 25% or 26%, depending on which poll you look at, about a quarter of the entire electorate, are also in favour. isn't that picking up the point, the most interesting thing about all of this is this process has so corroded trust and the relation? it is kind of like, to hell with it? the british media, some of the best selling newspapers, have undermined that. there's not a lot of intelligent comment in a lot of papers about that now. media people do thrive on sensation, confrontation. i think everybody
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needs to calm down. i am reminded of something my father said, a south african who used to fly aeroplanes, he used to say this during apartheid, it will be settled peacefully because it has to be, because the alternative is too ghastly to contemplate. there seems to be a solution here, there will be after a lot of blood has been spilt. after everyone is totally exhausted, there will be a settlement and it is likely to be something close to what mrs may has put to parliament. i'd like to say another thing at the risk of being deemed as a reconstructed imperialist, this country has faced crises much greater than this, even in my lifetime, and in the greatest of those crises, 1940, we had a conservative prime minister
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who was held in contempt by much of his own party, who could not win support of his own party for his place in parliament and had to rely on the labour party to come to his rescue, and we know what became of the history of that man — winston churchill. i am not suggesting mrs may is churchill, but i think she will prove to be a lot more appealing in hindsight than everybody is prepared... i do not think it makes any difference who is the next leader of the conservative party, it will not change the next couple of weeks. it is still going to be the same problem. for more than half a century, since the six—day war in 1967, the western two thirds of the golan heights has been occupied and administered by israel. despite its annexation by israel four years later, many countries see the israelis as illegal occupiers. yet on thursday, donald trump announced on twitter that, "after 52 years, it is time for the united states to fully recognize israel's sovereignty
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over the golan heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the state of israel and regional stability." the language used about the territories may have changed, but the state department says the policy on the status of those territories has not. do you think there is substance behind the semantics? is it just words? there is politics behind it and both domestically and in the united states, where there is a huge reliance on christian evangelical support in the republican party and for trump personally, they like this, and there is the small fact, although trump amazingly said he was not aware that there is an election in israel when he made this. that is possibly true! there is a french term that anyway... he is aware. this bromance between donald trump
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and netanyahu is what is behind it. it is nothing to do with the golan heights, really. it won't change things in the short term. golan heights is the lowest priority for any arab states, but on the other hand, it means for instance that whatever efforts we are putting in ukraine, and crimea, it is fine for putin to annex crimea. and what about the west bank? palestinians will think, are we next? the us has already moved its embassy tojerusalem and now golan heights, and the international community was quite happy to leave that ambiguity about the golan heights, it would not recognise it,
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but israel was doing its thing because it was about security, about syria and iran and hezbollah. is mostly an unpopulated area. suddenly it is brought on the plate and it is not going to change anything except making the us look even less of an important player in the region. on the basis of that, john, that it will not change anything in material terms and there is no belief israel would willingly give up this territory because of what it sees as protecting its flankers. if i may, not now it won't, but one of the great ironies is that none other succession of israeli prime ministers, including a young netanyahu, not only would have done but are involved in secret talks. in other words, this was part of a deal, and that is the point i wanted to raise, whether what we are seeing
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is a little elements, first the embassy, now this, of what will eventually be some kind of proposal or plan from the trump administration, long promised, supposedly designed by the first son—in—law, jared kushner, that these might be elements of that and something is coming. references made to the israeli election which mr trump may indeed be unaware of, i do not think it is votes in tel aviv orjerusalem he is concerned about, i think it is his own political situation, which is going to become a lot more complicated with the publication of elements of the mueller report some time this week, and that is what he has got his eye on. americanjewish american jewish votes? which americanjewish votes? which are of some significance. the attitude he took towards the murder of jamal khashoggi, what was that all about? i suspect it has a great deal to do with jared kushner,
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because much of what trump has done in foreign and domestic affairs does not make much sense on its face. to begin to deconstruct so much of the security architecture that has been built up with the united states at the centre over the last 50 or 60 years makes no sense at all unless you think of trump's vexed political situation at home. france was very clear, very explicit in saying it does not recognise the golan heights as israel territory and we respect what the security council has said and the eu resolution going back two or three decades. the jordanian foreign minister said that there is no possibility, unless israel withdraws from all arab territories it occupies, for there to be any final settlement of the israel—palestine dispute. this is why it is not going to go anywhere. on that basis, does it even matter? exactly!
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in that sense, there is these tweets and it unnerves everyone, but it is not going to go anywhere. we really do not want to open the golan heights canon debate at the un because it isjust going to heighten tension and, again, will be completely futile and sterile. i think the state department would like this to remain a tweet and just move on, and as brian says, strategically, this is about iran, hezbollah... and the upcoming elections in israel. and because this is about iran which worries trump, there is not going to be any pushback over the west bank, particular from the saudis. i am not sure that we can assume this is just
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a tweet because we might have thought that when we started talking during the election campaign, and moving the embassy to jerusalem, and more often than not, he has astonished us, not so much by promising he is going to do this or that, but by actually doing it. i think he might actually do this and the consequences could be very severe indeed, and not alone in terms of dealing with putin over crimea, sanctioning that. we might run into similar problems if the russians became aggressive in the baltic states and claimed sovereignty. considering the large russian populations in estonia, latvia and lithuania, where would we be if we had, in the meantime, sanctioned occupations in israel and the golan heights? the un is not going to take any action, but it does not mean to say it agrees with it. it is donald trump ignoring the rules—based world order.
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he is not the only one. putin has done it, the answer is he has done it and nobody has done very much about it. that is the reality. it is all very well saying we should not legitimise what has happened in crimea, but in a sense, we have, it has happened and nothing has been done about it. but it is important. these structures, like the inadmissibility of acquisition of territory by force are crucial, and john is absolutely right. there is an entire post—war architecture of european diplomacy, of diplomatic usage that can be undermined by a tweet. that architecture will survive trump, putin and many others. one hopes. much depends on the surviving of trump himself and we have to reassess that this week. indeed, the mueller report was handed over to the attorney general in washington on friday.
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we may learn more about it. just in terms of the mueller report, though, the white house must be breathing a little easier over this weekend as it was made clear that there were no other criminal charges. we are a long way from washington dc, and i could be wrong about this, but when i read last night he had no more criminal indictments, the more important thing was we knew that mueller has often given the opinion to the previous attorney general that under the constitution he doesn't think the president can be criminally indicted, so to say there 5 nothing in the report suggests he should be, is only to confirm his constitutional reservations, but i am sure you will find material in that that is profoundly shocking and profoundly destabilising to the republican majority in the senate, which in the end, is going to have to make up its mind about impeachment.
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is that a good thing about laying down that clarity, because there has been ambiguity over this, that the president cannot face criminal charges? which, by the way, is not constitutional. it is an opinion from the legal office of the justice department. it could be tested, it will not be. mueller made it clear from the start. is that a good thing in some senses because a lot of this is political and with it, but would it not be better it was dealt with? that is what i was going to say. the other investigation is probably more damning so we are pining to seek the results, really, and to read the evidence because the facts and evidence is now important. there is so much politics going on, it is like brexit. not quite brexit, because it may go on a bit longer. brexit with tweets, which is even more fun. the final tweet story,
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which is fascinating, is, in a single day last week, the treasury secretary announced new sanctions related to north korea and alleged chinese violations, and that evening, the president himself tweeted and said, "april fools! i am reversing the sanction!" and the white house spokesman, when asked why this happened, and i quote, said, "the president likes kim and he thinks the sanctions are unnecessary." we could be facing a situation with brexit and what is going on in washington, of having two countries at the heart of the western alliance being ungoverned for the next year and a half. what would be the consequences of that? bad — economically bad, bad in terms
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of social cohesion and bad, and i say this as a brit, it is very distressing to see that the great respect in which this country has been held for its democracy, for its civilised behaviour in world affairs is being seriously damaged, as, by the way, is the reputation of the united states by the current presidency. thank you all very much, and it is worth reflecting there that it was donald trumer, the eldest son of the president of the united states, who wrote an opinion piece in a british newspaper this week where he suggested british democracy as a result of brexit was all but dead. some people raised that challenge back at the united states. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back at the same time next week.
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a beautiful springlike day across much of england and wales, not much cloud and a lot of spring sunshine but further north and west a different store to —— story, gusts of wind 40—50 mph and a rash of showers falling across snow in the scottish mountains. the showers will drift through northern ireland across the borders into north—west england later on this afternoon but elsewhere we keep the sunshine and it will be a beautiful afternoon with light winds, highest values of 11! degrees. cooler further north, 8—iodc. moving overnight, the weak weather front will continue to slip south and by then a band of cloud and the odd spot of rain and behind it quite a clearance and with wind direction from the north—west, a cool start to monday morning. temperatures down to low single figures. it does look like the week ahead
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