wejoin and we join and you know for it this week special covering the new port west by election. —— new port west by election. we have lower hues from the financial times, just winning an award. in stephen bush from the new statesman. we will bring you the result of a life as it happens in newport along with analysis and insight. we understand the turnout of the report suggesting it would be very low. we are told the turnout is

about 37%. which is low but not low by many by elections standards. probably above par what's. probably above par this by many by elections standards. probably above par this is not been the case in newport west. a lot better then the record for the lowest turnout in a by election which was meant central in 2012. only 18.2% which was meant central in 2012. 0nly18.2% of the people turned out. that may bring some comfort to labour which was worried that a very low turnout may skew the results. labour has held the seat since 1987.

usually pretty comfortably as well. for labour to lose this tonight, that would be a major political upset. astonishing and a sign, suggesting national polls were very wrong and suggesting that something was going wrong. it might be a wider sort of apathy towards the mps at the moment and the selecting of anybody for parliament. for some of the reports in the local press suggesting it wasn't about brexit. local issues were important and national issues that were not to do with brexit. it will be a mixture of everything. clearly people will be talking about a range of things on the doorstep. i'm sure it's been quite difficult for people to come out to vote in many circumstances.

the source of issues that i suddenly we re the source of issues that i suddenly were picking up on the doorstep that include a range of things. they included worry about crime rate going up in the cuts that have been to police in the general dissatisfaction with the nine years of austerity we fast. and the way it seems that the rich seem to be rewarded, the ordinary working person who sees rising prices and stagnating wages. people are i think very concerned and very concerned about cuts to services which again have been sent down the line from the uk conservative government. there will be a mixture of things but i do think that it is quite a difficult time because i do think there is a generalfeeling of being a bit fed up with politics at the moment. they have seen a lot. it rained for most of that day i understand today which makes the voting 70% turnout a bit more respectable. the conservatives have

a mountain to climb. you won the seat on the gear it came into creation. in 1983. but only by three figure majority. less than 1000. then they will win convincingly and 97 and held it ever since until his death at the age of 8a. 13 points behind a labour in 2017. it is quite a mountain. absolutely. it would be a mountain. absolutely. it would be a seismic shock tonight if we were to win this seat. especially on the backdrop we have now been in government for now nine years. most political stories in history, they do not turn to the governing party at this stage, they tend to go the other way. i would expect the party which took 50% of the vote, what actually work well. what is interesting about this is that

labour and put a lot of resources into this seat. this is a party which says it is running through an election to government that is a huge amount of resource going to see which has been a labour pretty much an entire life. not a huge amount going again. it's been a respectable campaign because it's been a run at a local level of focus on those local issues. a substantial resource into... this is a leaf seat. they voted we believe on calculation. you can't always tell exactly by the constituency but calculation suggests voted 5a to 46 to constituency but calculation suggests voted 54 to 46 to lee. a little bit more than the country. as a whole. why didn't you? it has had the level she would expect to a seat you don't expect to win. rather than a seat which you would be targeting very hard. it's not like you have given up. it is giving the local... —— sounds like you have given up. he

has been the mayor for a while. still the leader of the conservatives. matthew evans. ruth jones, is a local to. working on the nhs. two local candidates. it was very much based on local issues. i would agree with near that the when we went. i went down for a weekend. there was a lot of talk about that. which is the big local issue. welsh assembly... the chancellor has given the washer assembly £300 million which is being set on at the moment. some internal labour wrangling within the welsh assembly to what to do with this project. i think that actually come as an outsider going to the seat, it was something that was brought up on the doorstep as well as pushing in the campaign. the leg labour and conservatives have supported the bypass trust that the money is there is nothing has

happened yet. there is frustration. to be fair, a report has been produced in the first minister i just received that report. he said that he would be making the decision ina timely that he would be making the decision in a timely manner in a matter of weeks. there is resistance. he said he will make the decision and the first minister is very much a man of his word. let's have a look at what the result was in 2017. that is the what we had. at what the result was in 2017. actually, what you had up there was the result on the referendum. but let's look first of all at the parliamentary result in 2017. so there you see it. paul flynn holding on comfortably. did he increase the size of his majority, his share of the vote quite substantially. he got 4196 the vote quite substantially. he got 41% share of the vote in 2015. but that shot up to 52% in the 2017 general election. 13 points ahead of

the conservatives. as you see there, everybody else, and also ran, way down. ukip‘s vote slumped in 2017. it had been 15% of the vote in 2015, but of course, then with the referendum and when the general election came, i guess a lot of ukip voters thought the matter had been resolved. little did they know that in 2019, it would still be a very live issue, and one of the issues is that we will see whether the ukip vote is now rising back up again as a result of brexit being unresolved. but that's a healthy position that paul flynn left behind there. on brexit, and on the referendum itself, let's just have a look at that and see how the constituency voted in the referendum in 2016. as i say, these are calculations. they're not necessarily entirely accurate but give a pretty good impression. remember, the country, asa impression. remember, the country, as a whole, voted 52% to 48% to

leave. newport west being just a little bit more leave by 2 percentage points than the country asa percentage points than the country as a whole. in many way, newport west, it is a kind of average constituency. it's a little bit poorer than the country as a whole. house prices a little bit down. the demographics are really quite similar. it was a little bit more leave than the country as a whole. will the result tell us anything about the national mood if this is a typical constituency?” about the national mood if this is a typical constituency? i think it will tell us a couple of things. firstly, it will give us a good idea of how tired voters are of brexit, we suspect. and it will tell us a little bit about where the two parties are, whether or not that seepage to the smaller parties we're seeing in the polls is real. but because the labour party has always done a little bit better in wales, even when you control for

demographics than the rest of the country, you would assume that it would tell us slightly less because it isa would tell us slightly less because it is a welsh constituency. all right, let's go to this welsh constituency. going to felicity eva ns, constituency. going to felicity evans, the bbc‘s editor in wales. at the local velodrome. no longer do they have the counts in the town halls. they're in the velodrome of newport. where are we now? how is the count coming on? well, as you know, of‘ just been discussing, we do have the turnout figure now, which is 37%. and the discussion of whether or not that's low or not... i've got a contribution from an expert. roger 0wen scully has september me a message on —— sent me a message and he said what they normally do to work out if turnout is low, they assume it will be about two third of what the general election turnout was, and that was 67.5% in 2017. so he said he would have been expecting something in the mid—40s, so he does regard 37% as

low. but given the weather and given the fact of the brexit chaos at westminster, he suggest that is what this shows, actually, is that far from voters being fired up to go out and take part in this election because of what's been happening in westminster, it's actually switched them off. certainly, the parties are surprised. they definitely thought it was going to be lower than that. some smiles appearing on labour faces now that they have that turnout figure, and one labour source said to me, "well, that is good news for us." the latest thing that's just happened is that all the agents have been recalled to see the returning officer. they're all going through the spoiled ballots now and just checking that they're happy with those. was this a brexit by—election? did brexit come up a lot? 0rdid by—election? did brexit come up a lot? or did local issues and other national issues play a bigger role? it's a really interesting question, that. i think when it all got

started, there was a nervousness among all the parties, really, that this would be dominated by brexit, and the newport west by—election would become a 3—ring circus. but as we know, the circus stayed in westminster and although there were some parties trying to make this a brexit by—election, ukip is the obvious example there, what the parties were telling us is that actually, a lot of local issues, and wales—wide issues, were dominating. there is one particular issue here in this constituency, which is the question of whether or not an m4 relief road should be built. that is a devolved issue. it's the decision of the welsh government, the welsh labour government and they will be making that decision imminently. in fa ct, making that decision imminently. in fact, it was delayed to let the by—election take place before that decision was announced. and when the m4 gets clogged up near this constituency, it results in all the roads in newport west getting clogged up as well as people look

for alternative routes. so all the candidate, the main candidates, obviously, not the greens, were throwing their weight behind the relief road for the m4, and other things, too. austerity, policing, that sort of thing. it seemed to get a lot of purchase on the doorstep, i'm being told. and when brexit was mentioned, it was pretty much in the form of exasperation from a lot of people, to be honest, and certainly, i got that sense when i went out to talk to voters. they were telling me they were pretty sick of it. what is they were pretty sick of it. what is the mood in newport at the moment? the unemployment rate is a bit higher than the national average, but it's under 5%. average incomes area bit but it's under 5%. average incomes are a bit lower than the national average, but not hugely so. there's been a lot of investment in the town centre, the friar‘s walk, the big new shopping area and arts area. there's going to be a new university campus, i understand, there's going to be a new university campus, iunderstand, is

there's going to be a new university campus, i understand, is on the way, too. a lot of investment. is the town more up—beat than it was before? it's a really interesting constituency, newport west in the respect of prosperity and the economy, really, because it's very mixed, actually. you can look at newport west and concentrate on the deprived areas, of which there are many. the city centre itself, which is one of the reasons that it was targeted for the regeneration that you went to, areas like bettis and pill, where we are now, are some of the most deprived. there are some of the most deprived. there are some of the most deprived. there are some of the most prosperous in wales with some of the highest incomes. so this genuinely is a constituency that spans some of the most privileged areas and some of the most deprived

andi areas and some of the most deprived and i guess, depending on the agenda, you can pick something to suit you in we will get some indications there. this by—election took place and they went to the polls as talk of cross party consensus 0n brexit was gearing up. the prime minister's record on being flexible, on being a negotiator, doesn't actually leave me with a lot of hope. so although we're certainly putting forward our ideas and you've heard that repeated many, many times, i know, andrew, we're going

to suggest a way forward. whether the prime minister will take us up on that, i don't know. and even if she does, whether she will be able to get enough members of her own party to support it, for it to have parliamentary support, is yet another question. what would happen if mrs may accepted labour's idea of a customs union on top of the deal she's already agreed? well, i'm not going to get into hypotheticals? she's already agreed? well, i'm not going to get into hypotheticals7m is not hypothetical. it is what the reality is is that every indicative vote so far has been voted down, what the prime minister made clear about the conversations taking place is that there are several areas for local conservatives in one of those common areas that we can bring out of that, obviously picking on the customs union is highly controversial and the premise of the question is we

have exceptional difficulty still going through the house. the biggest difficulty of all going through the conservative party. there are some blunt truth. the deal was the best way it has been. the withdrawal agreement was voted down as well, all 12 indicative votes were voted down. we have reached an impasse and we have had four and a half hours of negotiations today, all we can say from those is that they have been constructive, apparently and they are going to carry on and we have got to see what comes out of that. there will always be that big dollop of realism, you make it out so well and he put this in and if it is so controversial it will not go through the house either. you want mrs may to be flexible. where is labour being flexible. if we look at what mrs may has done up until now, three

times as you say, she has brought a vote that has been exactly the same back to the house of commons and what she has not been able to do is show any degree of flexibility. we should not be having these talks now at the last minute, we should have been having these at least as far back as last november. we are where we are, rightly or wrongly and since eve ryo ne we are, rightly or wrongly and since everyone talks about the other side being flexible, i am not yet sure if is going to be flexible enough to move to the customs union or whether she could carry her party if she did, buti she could carry her party if she did, but i am wondering where labour could show flexibility in these talks. we are participating in good faith and we are certainly putting options on the table and as i understand, talks have been constructive today. we cannot comment on exactly what the outcome is going to be and that is what negotiations are about. it is about talking and seeing where things may end up. i certainly have absolute faith in my team that they will want

to deliver what is best for the people of britain. john curtice — professor of politics at strathclyde university — and our resident expert at elections is in the newsroom for us. this by—election is taking place against the backdrop of brexit. 0ne of the problems for the government, for any tory hopes, i would suggest, a lwa ys for any tory hopes, i would suggest, always quite long hopes that they could take the seat in the current climate is, as i understand it, the country does not think this government has handled these brexit talks at all well. no, indeed and u nfortu nately, particularly talks at all well. no, indeed and unfortunately, particularly for the conservatives, leave voters are now as critical of the government ‘s handling of brexit as remain voters and given that conservatives, that is not good news. when i did this polling back injanuary or february, we had 80% of people saying that the

government had handled brexit badly whereas in the beginning of the brexit process, leave voters were inclined to give the government the benefit of the doubt, remain voters have long been critical, perhaps unsurprisingly by the time we got to the end of the process, leave voters we re the end of the process, leave voters were as critical as remain voters. indeed you gather in the last couple of days have added further spice to the story, managing to show that now we are getting 80 —— 88% of people saying the government is handling brexit badly and it seems to have sunk further during the course of the past three or four weeks. for any government, competence is important and particularly the perception of competence among those whose wishes you are trying to deliver. unfortunately for the government and for mrs may, the leave voters for whom she is supposed to be batting are indeed none to happy with the outcome they have seen so far. what do you make

of the turnout at 37%? it is a little bit on the low side. if we look at the fall in turnout in the last parliament it was around 22 points on average. this one is a drop more, it is somewhat greater, not as great as it was in lewisham east, the only other by—election we have had since the last general election. a little on the low side but frankly probably, not dramatically so. roughly what we would expect. but we should be looking for in this by—election and it is not about who will win or lose, the interesting thing about newport east is that it is a constituency that demonstrates how the electorate flocked back to either conservative or labour in the 2017 general election. we had over 90% of the vote going to either conservative or labour. the thing

that has been going on in the opinion polls and beyond those dramatic numbers are about people ‘s lack of faith in the government's handling a brexit is that both conservative and labour have been losing ground amongst the electorate. they have lost ground ever since the deal was first unveiled in mid november but if you compare the situation in the polls now to where the polls were at and where the parties were out injune 2017, they are both down by around six or seven percentage points. i think we should be looking at this by—election to see if there is any evidence that the apparent re—fragmentation of the electorate and of the party system at the polls have been pointing towards, is there any evidence of this happening in this by—election in a place where above all both parties have been dominant? there are a couple of crucial actors could not quite taking place and that may be why we do not get as much fragmentation as we may have got. 0ne do not get as much fragmentation as we may have got. one is the so—called independent group, now

called change your cake, now pro—remain and of course nigel farage ‘s brexit party, promising to fight the european elections if we end up having them, i have got my eyes on ukip and if they get around 8% of the vote in this by—election, that will be consistent with the evidence of the opinion polls, which is that ukip support is now pretty much back to where it was before the 2017 general election, before it got squeezed because many voters decided that the conservatives were the best bet for delivering brexit. if we get that count of number will be confirmation that the conservatives in particular are indeed now at risk of losing support amongst leave voters for ukip because as we said at the beginning, leave voters are none too happy with the way the conservatives have been handling brexit. stay tuned, we are going to go back to newport and we are going

to talk to the ukip candidate, leader in wales, neil hamilton. we understand that counting has stopped and we may get the result in the next 15 minutes or so. john kerr ties saying that 80% in the latest polls getting on almost to 90% think the government has made a bit of a mess of these negotiations. you must be expecting to do pretty well tonight. i think we are realistic from a position of 3% or less which is what we got in the last general election, 2017. whilst i am hoping we will have a substantial increase on that, it clearly was impossible for us to where michael deceit. i was hoping that the conservative vote would collapse and given the expense of the last few months it is amazing that anyone will want to continue voting conservative if they we re continue voting conservative if they were pro—brexit, but you know that established voting patterns are difficult to shift, especially in the first past the post electoral

system. your party got 1596 of the vote on the 2015 general election. that slumped to 3% 2017, what would bea that slumped to 3% 2017, what would be a good result tonight? well, as john said a moment ago, if we get seven or 8% in newport west, it will show that ukip is back on the rails. ukip has had a pretty disastrous time of it in the last couple of yea rs. time of it in the last couple of years. and we have steadied the ship and we are now moving forward, membership is up on what it was one year ago. we had very limited resources in this campaign that we spent probably no more than £7,000 and goodness knows how much they had spent. the money behind them, and but i do think the money does talk to an extent and i will be very satisfied if he travelled to our percentage on where we were last time. seven or

eight would hardly be a break through what it? it would not be a com plete through what it? it would not be a complete breakthrough by these things do take times and we repaired a good deal of the damage it did to itself in the years after the referendum. and we are confident going forward. as far as the welsh assembly elections are concerned and a few months‘ time, with the modified pr system, we elect five members out of 16 in the assembly so i see this as part of the railing programme of elections to get up to the elections and a few years‘ time. can you expect to do that much better if there is an increasing perception that the party is in the grip of the hard right now and even nigel farage... he does not want to be part of ukip any more. that is because he... you are the mainstream right of the british political

spectrum now. these are propaganda terms which i am not going to is. the trouble with nigel as he does not want a political party but you wa nt not want a political party but you want a personality cult which is a different thing. we did get 20% and 2015 in the run—up to the referendum, ukip was doing extremely well and we have done a lot of damage to ourselves since the campaign but that is a year or more ago. we have recovered half of what we lost in 12 months than i am satisfied with that. are you not still doing damage to yourself, you area still doing damage to yourself, you are a leader in the parliament and he could hardly beat mainstream in british politics as it did not to be a cause for concern about the direction in which ukip is going?

ukip is not going anywhere in terms of its place on the political spectrum. can i quote you on that? in terms of the political spectrum i mean, we are not changing our party policy and any particular direction and we are going up in the polls as we‘ll demonstrate tonight but we are not going further to the right or further to the left, we are seeing exactly where we always been. tommy robinson is a red herring. he is a com plete robinson is a red herring. he is a complete red herring. why? because he cannotjoin ukip, because of his previous connections, because ukip is the only mainstream political party that prescribes those who have been members of certain organisations like the bnp and so on. and that is not going to change anytime soon in my opinion. so why

is mr batten playing footsie with them? because he is very concerned about islamism and we are all concerned about that. i do think that tony robinson has been demonised by the media and it is very difficult to talk sensibly about these issues without creating hysteria. but he did have a million plus follow us on facebook before they close this account. he is not just talking on his own and what he says it resonates with a large number of people and it is wrong to dismiss him. does it resonate with you? i am certainly as concerned as he is with the developments that have taken place in britain and recent yea rs have taken place in britain and recent years like the rape kings and it is all over the place. political correctness has made it difficult to talk about in the past and enable

them to happen because they feel prohibited from investigating sufficiently. it sounds like he would be comfortable in your party? we agree on some things and i am no expert on tommy robinson and i did not want to get into a discussion about him because he is not a member of ukip. when will we get the results ? of ukip. when will we get the results? thank you very much. i said when will we get the result?” results? thank you very much. i said when will we get the result? i think inafew when will we get the result? i think in a few minutes. excellent, we better let you go because they will need you when the results are read out, thank you forjoining us from newport west. inc. you for having me. like you make of ukip now because nigel farage... more mainstream, and the party is going to the extreme, do you think that will work? you are right in

mentioning in a sense that it was based on the personality of nigel farage and i do not feel like they can write about ukip at all any more, it is not really on the spectrum of political discussions or perhaps if nigel farage was to move, people might follow him but it has felt irrelevant and it is interesting to see how ukip will do tonight and whether or not people have disassociated themselves with the party and the same way that nigel farage has. is that the reason why they might not vote for ukip any more, or will they use it as a protest vote because they are upset a bout brexit? will tories be worried again like david cameron was worried again like david cameron was worried about ukip which causes them to fit into the manifesto of the referendum? if you can't doesn't finish second which is highly plausible tonight. they could be second tonight, because they were a

poor third in the last time, in 2017, tories at 39% of the boat and ukip got three. that would be almost as big of an upset if labour was see was as did the tories, and third. as big of an upset if labour was see was as did the tories, and thirdm was as did the tories, and thirdm was successful in getting people elected in wells and off the party list and having a family that number of second places and it would not be wholly surprising if they could pull off some kind of regeneration of the management in richmond. they do it if they have ukip one and ukip two. he has this veneer of respectability andl he has this veneer of respectability and i have ukip read by otherfar right... that is kind of a meme is an eight? eight meme of anti-semitic nature and far right circles. we

know ukip had a very strong quasi—respectable brand and they are doing quite a good job of dragging that brand through the mud. 0ne interesting test case here is if they have enough loyalty to the old ukip and nigel farage and they noticed something very different about you can't know and they turned out it has not noticed and it will notjust the out it has not noticed and it will not just the conservatives out it has not noticed and it will notjust the conservatives but particularly through the conservative party. a lot of tories, your own people think that what theresa may has agreed is not a proper brexit. isn‘t that an entry for ukip to start threatening?” proper brexit. isn‘t that an entry for ukip to start threatening? i do think if you keep telling people that something is terrible they will think it is terrible and if you go to the opening part of where the withdrawal agreement came out and jeremy corbyn condemned it without reading it, you have that and you have tories and piecing similar things and if you tell people

something is rubbish they will think it is. i think there is the fragmentation of the ukip to the new brexit party and i think that could be something which actually does break that down and actually i am quite frankly sat with my mouth open, some of the things i havejust heard, from what purports to be a mainstream politician, dropping an phrase is about islam and slightly anti—semitic comics as well. this is the problem. i am literally aghast at what has happened. he was challenged and a reminder in the direction ukip is going and and i was asking you about the conservatives, you are a vice chair of your own party and say you are aware that the grassroots of the tory party is in an uproar over the decision to call and jeremy corbyn to help her and brexit. we have not

found a majority on anything, the withdrawal agreement, the 12 motions that were put down and we have to somehow as the prime minister said, we have to break the impasse, break the logjam. you did not place back on the description of it being an an uproar. we have to find a way through it and if we had a well delivered brexit, we move beyond this point. we know already it will not be smooth. we are not there yet. that is my point. you will have to delay it again. but that the premise that made made the decision she made and we have to try other things of the group so far i‘ve come to a dead end. she is calling in a man she previously said is unfit to be prime minister. and that is a perfectly reasonable point to make but you can‘t get away from the fact she is

the leaders. it is not about saving her skin, he is the leader of a loyal opposition and that is why he isa loyal opposition and that is why he is a member of the privy council and has the second number of mps in parliament and they have not been able to introduce a decision so it is right that you say there is common ground between the parties and how do we find that and get it through. how do we get away from the fa ct after all through. how do we get away from the fact after all these months, everything has been voted down let‘s wait let‘s go back to newport, they finish the town and we respect the —— expect the result in a moment. we‘rejoined by william powell, party president for the welsh lib dems and by delythjewell an assembly member for plaid cymru. are you going to do any better tonight? i think it is fair to say that we were squeezed and the strong and stable election of 2017 and we

are optimistic and improving are showing this evening and we will see what the voters are going to say. understand the new candidate, what is the candidate doing? our candidate has a long—standing commitment that he has got to honour this evening unfortunately but he rana this evening unfortunately but he ran a strong and vigorous campaign and he has been very well received on the doorstep and the... he has a long—standing commitment at 1:10 a.m.? that that he had a long—standing commitment of the people he wants to represent? he is a well—respected local businessman and he is a very popular local candidate for the local party and he has been running a strong and vigorous campaign. he is not

sticking up a house at ten past 1am is he? i will take that as a no. is your candidate there? he is and he is here tonight. i am glad to hear it. this is no hope for you, is it? we are very 0pel to the result from my sign and if you see that across wells, we will be happy indeed and considering the context of the chaotic brexit mess that everything has been happening in westminster and squeezed out of so many things, we have been in the debate, we are proud of the campaign we ran and we are very hopeful for a really strong result for us that we can build on across wells. if you doubled the

performance in 2017, that takes two to 4% tonight, not exactly a breakthrough. at this rate it will ta ke breakthrough. at this rate it will take you to... 2115 to win the seat. lam sure take you to... 2115 to win the seat. i am sure you are very take you to... 2115 to win the seat. i am sure you are very aware take you to... 2115 to win the seat. i am sure you are very aware that this is not exactly an area where plaid cymru has historically been very strong. you may not be aware as lam how very strong. you may not be aware as i am how plaid cymru has been doing and we do make recent opinion polls and we do make recent opinion polls and we do make recent opinion polls and we know if we are able to double our results in an area like newport, where we have not been strong in the past, then we are really hopeful for what that will mean for us across wells. let's go back to the lead dams, both plaid cymru and lead dams are staunch remain parties and you both want a second referendum to try and get the result to go your way, and get the result to go your way, and yet it would suggest newport

west, none of that cuts any ice because both of you are going nowhere? i certainly would not agree with that. absolutely not, and that isa with that. absolutely not, and that is a point we can agree on because so many people live the stomach met in newport west are sick to death of the chaos that brexit has brought over the last three years. why are they not voting for you? we are absolutely committed to a public vote to a conformant tory referendum on any deal that is done because anything that is going to be done in terms of brexit is going to be so far removed from the false hopes that we were sold to the electric back and 2016, this is the only thing we can do to honour the principle of democracy and to save

newport and the rest of wells from the chaos. to add to that, there is a real lesson that can be learned from everything that happens here tonight, i from everything that happens here tonight, lam from everything that happens here tonight, i am sorry to say that before the collection that they read the dems went into with the conservatives, they had been pulling around 20% here and they are looking to do around 20% here and they are looking todoa around 20% here and they are looking to do a lot worse than that tonight and at the labour party does go into and at the labour party does go into a coalition deal with the conservatives on brexit, the people of wells will not forget them. conservatives on brexit, the people of wells will not forget themm conservatives on brexit, the people of wells will not forget them. it is a coalition now, all right. 0ne missing candidate and a labour — tory coalition. things are happening in newport last and we need to go there more often. i know you want to get into pole position to hear that, so thank you forjoining us for the bbc by election special. should jeremy corbyn, if he can come to some agreement with theresa may on the way forward, shall he also insists that that way forward is

that to a second referendum? we have been very clear about this in our policy. i can assure you, you have not. the answer to that question is this if we feel it if the situation ofa this if we feel it if the situation of a no—deal brexit or a part tory deal brexit, then we would play... that is not what i asked. that is what mr corbyn told the prime minister, because parliament is effectively ruling out no deal and if he agrees to some kind of deal, shady and the circumstances insist ona shady and the circumstances insist on a second referendum? obviously we have heard the negotiations have been constructed today but what we do not know is what those negotiations would be. if the outcome is something that mr corbin can agree to and if theresa may it moves and not in his direction, he saidi moves and not in his direction, he said i think i can help you get this

over the line in the comments, shady also insist that you also have to get it back through the british people? i think in the current situation where we do not have a clear majority and the comments for a particular deal at the moment and given the fact that you‘re talking about a compromise deal, you are talking about having to compromise on what we would consider to be an ideal labour possession and sale if there is a compromise position, then it should be a second referendum. there is a compromise position, then it should be a second referendumm that labour policy? we were very clear that if it is not our ideal agreed for, that we are talking about some sort of compromise, and went to get into compromise territory than we do not have really been a mandate to go forward with that. with prominent seeming to be atan that. with prominent seeming to be at an impasse and with those issues, i think we let... under this scenario parliament would not be at an impasse, with jeremy scenario parliament would not be at an impasse, withjeremy corbyn‘s

support, the deal if it is ever done will get to the comments. but it would be a compromise. so is it labour policy orjust your policy that there should then be a referendum on it? what i am saying is if it is a compromise, and we would feel that we would need to have a referendum in order to have people to see what the deal actually said and... we said if it is a case to avoid a new deal scenario, and if it is the case of the tory deal, what we are talking about now is a hypothetical situation where we did not actually know what ideal would bea not actually know what ideal would be a fight the deal thatjeremy corbyn would have agreed to... if it isa corbyn would have agreed to... if it is a deal where we had to make a considerable amount of compromise, it would be difficult for us to deal we have a strong mandate to push for without without going back... help

me here steve and clay split the interesting question here is that i am not convinced that a deal could pass if it does not have a referendum. we have seen a reasonable pro leave and people are seen as constructive and not had bangers and standing up and using strong language about the idea of even sitting down with jeremy corbyn and there are a number of labour and peace want a second referendum and i am not sure if a deal could pass the commons? i do not think it will happen at all. i understand, the consensus here seems that the deal would not go through, but indulge me for the moment that if it does, are you clear what his position on the referendum as? it would be hard to get through because it would divide the labour party... 25 labour mps

wrote to him. the customs union as pa rt wrote to him. the customs union as part of the compromise and you would split the conservative party and the prime minister knows that very well. you would have splits on either side and you would have with mps and they say it is feeling. all over. all over and everywhere so it is not clear, even cabinet a split on whether or not there should be a second referendum. we got to the prime minister and leader of the 0pposition who are united in the country‘s view of them which is the unpopular view of them. their personal ratings, we understand the results a couple minutes ago, this is theresa may, 65% dissatisfied with 29% satisfied. a big negative rating there. let‘s look atjeremy corbyn, the leader of the

0pposition. can we show that chart coming up as well, there we go. he has 50 percentage point negative rating and he is normally, leaders of the opposition do better and can do what they want to do. 70% dissatisfied and 20% satisfied and it is clear that the british public is not too enamoured ofjeremy corbyn or of theresa may in the current climate. why doesjeremy corbyn have a 50% dissatisfaction ratio? i think of that past few yea rs ratio? i think of that past few years when it happened is that there has been a very determined way of trying to vilify leaders and i have been on the doorstep and in 20 yea rs, been on the doorstep and in 20 years, knocking on doors and a tray to vilify our leaders. and has happened time and time and time

again. the campaigners on the other political side and let‘s be blunt, the conservatives have tried to do this time and time again. is working according to that graphic. and that is very much their paycheque but they tried before with previous leaders. if you look at that chart, he has a lot more... if you think of the language that the prime minister herself has used and conservative mps have been throwing back at her, again and again and again we have seen that it has been a very personal attack and a lot of vilification. if you think why, i will tell you why. when we talk about policies, people like labour policies and they did not like a lot of conservative policies that they fall back on trying to do anything they can to vilify our leaders. money be part of this, because i‘m not sure which is the 50% gap, and

the city of newport, and the west constituency, you see people on the platform there and it looks like we are about ready to get a result and they are not all up there, the candidates there so we may need a few minutes away from that, more coming up now, time honoured british political convention as the candidates come on stage and wearing the race that still. let‘s go live to newport less now. we are very close to the result. good morning ladies and gentlemen, we are now going to make the declaration of the result of whole for the by election for the member of parliament for the newport west constituency.

speaking welsh. jonathan thomas clark, davies renew, advance, conservative party candidate, neil hamilton, you can‘t. ruthjones, welsh labour. ryanjones, liberal democrat. ian mclean, social democratic party. nicklin for britain movement. richard suchorzewski, abolish the wells as chamblee party. philip taylor, democrats and veterans. amelia will

green party. being the returning officerfor green party. being the returning officer for the newport west constituency held on thursday the 4th of april 2019, hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate of the said election are as follows. jonathan thomas clark, plaid cymru the party of wales, 1185. june davies, renew, 879. matthew advance, was conservative party candidate, 7357.

neil hamilton, you can‘t, make brexit happen, 2023. ruthjones, welsh labour, at 9308. —— neil hamilton, ukip. ryanjones, ryan jones, liberal democrat, ryanjones, liberal democrat, 1088. in mclean, social democratic party, 202. hugh nicklin, for britain movement, 159. richard suchorzewski,

abolish the welsh assembly party 205. philip taylor, democrats and vetera ns 205. philip taylor, democrats and veterans party, 185. amelia womack, green party, 924. i hereby declare that ruth jones green party, 924. i hereby declare that ruthjones is duly elected as member of parliament for newport west. applause the number of ballot papers rejected was 100 and i will now invite the

top three candidates to make statements. thank you. my name is aretha jones and i am the next labour memberof aretha jones and i am the next labour member of parliament for newport west. —— my name is bruce bell ruthjones. i newport west. —— my name is bruce bell ruth jones. i would newport west. —— my name is bruce bell ruthjones. i would like to ensure doug thank everyone for the writing of this election and for the candidates running this election often with good humour and courtesy. be by election has taking place because of the fight for sad passing of paul flynn, our friend. there have been many tributes to him of the week but one thing set out to me, everyone the week but one thing set out to me , everyone knew the week but one thing set out to me, everyone knew someone who is helped by hand. they had been an inspiration for me throughout the campaign and that is what we are here for, to do our utmost to help others and i am deeply honoured to stand here and have the support of

newport west. many will note my story by now, i live here with my husband and raise our kids here. i spent 30 years and the nhs and i fought on behalf of the people treated poorly at work. now that you elected me to go to parliament, i will do what i have promised on every doorstep, i will stand up to the people, the jobs and of newport west. who knows what the next three days, weeks and months will bring. but what i know for certain is that people who had a nap after a decade of austerity, they had enough of cuts that took place up our streets and being made feel with this by universal credit and be better in class. it is with newport in my heart and people in my mind i go to parliament. i will get around to the wall eventually but i would like to say a few here and now. thank you to

my husband david. thank you to my husband, david. applause. yes. he has put up with a lot, yes, and my children, aled and eleanor. if you think i have been an embarrassing mother up until now, you ain't seen nothing yet. thank you ain't seen nothing yet. thank you to my agent and the entire welsh labour team of staff and volunteers. cheering and applause. many of you have put your lives on hold to come and fight the cause we'll believe it. you are all wonderful and have been the best support i could have asked for. equally i am grateful for the support i have received from the first minister and jeremy corbyn who have both been here multiple times throughout the campaign. two jane bryant, nick thomas simmons and jess morden, thank you for everything. i am looking forward to working with

our fantastic am is a dynamic duo standing up for newport west together. sam flynn who is here tonight has been so supportive in what has been a truly difficult time. applause. thank you for your quiet dignity and strength and your help to me. to my labour family, thank you for putting your faith labour family, thank you for putting yourfaith in me labour family, thank you for putting your faith in me to represent our movement. the last few weeks have been hard work but we did it. finally a most important, to the people of newport west, as your mp, i will represent you to the best of my abilities, i will seek to build trust with you at a time when trust in politics... no great political upsetin in politics... no great political upset in the early hours of this morning in newport west, labour hold the seat on a reduced majority but also on a lower turnout. labour getting 9308 faults, the

conservatives take second place with 7357 and ukip come third with 2000 23, which even on a reduced turnout is almost double the vote that they had on the 2017 election on a much bigger turnout. labour holds onto the seat they have held since 1987 with paul flynn. ruthjones is a new mpfor with paul flynn. ruthjones is a new mp for newport west, she is an nhs physiotherapist and she has done that for 30 years. she has become a trade union representative as well. paul flynn‘s majority was just under 6000. in some could see that newport west is a marginal seat but that it is

marginal, but the turnout was only 37%. labour will be relieved that they‘ve held on to that, though there was rarely any chance of them losing. it wasn‘t expected to be an upset. the conservative result is respectable, if not in any way a breakthrough and we‘ll look a bit more at how ukip may have done. they‘ve not done nearly as well as 2015. but they‘ve done better than they did in 2017. what‘s your reaction to that. we‘ll getjohn curtis to give us that. with that very important caveat, without knowing exactly what the percentages that, that feels broadly like what we would expect given the lower turnout, fairly comfortable labour hold. given the turnout. the smaller parties there. and the slight unwinding of the polarisation of 2017, which suggests that the national polls are broadly correct, which is interesting, given that the

national polls often have not been correct in recent... which national polls are we talking about? there was a recent one which mr corbyn had? what we would expect give en that the average polls them neck and neck, but on a lower share of the vote, that is what we would expect ina vote, that is what we would expect in a national seat, if they are neck and neck, but with the smaller parties doing better. the big question is that plaid cymy do have that. this will take the wind out of their sails a little bit, but if they can improve their share of the vote a little bit. that would be a shape shift and one worth looking at. before we get any more commentary from the guest, we‘ll go tojohn curtis who will break down the election result and put it in context. 0ver the election result and put it in context. over to you? i think that

there are two sides to the by—election result. but i think that the by—election result, does, at least, suggest that the potential risk to labour and the conservatives from brexit, while this result certainly do anything to assuage those. the conservative vote is down and the ukip vote is up by around 6%. neil hamilton has managed to meet the target. he‘s got about 8.6% of the vote. almost undoubtedly, one of the vote. almost undoubtedly, one of the vote. almost undoubtedly, one of the reasons why the conservatives lost ground in this by—election is because of losses to ukip. but for labour, however, this is, ithink rather more disappointing than they might have anticipated. the party‘s vote, the share of vote is down by almost 13 points. the share of vote is less than it was, at any stage when paul flynn managed to win the constituency all the way back in 1987. and what you can see, there‘s no spectacular increase for anyone of those trying to reverse brexit.

but the renew party and the liberal democrats and the greens have seen the share of the vote up by 11 points. and certainly, you know, the opinion polls are suggesting, not that the labour party are losing votes dramatically, to any one particular party, but rather that they are, according to the opinions polls, losing a bit of ground to the greens. losing a bit of ground to the liberal democrats. and i think this by—election result indicates that certainly, those messages cannot be ignored and that in particular, despite all the concerns that we‘d expressed earlier today, about how labour might lose out if it was to back a second referendum, i think there‘s some thought here as to why the labour party might also

have reason for concern if it doesn‘t back a second refer, because the parties that did back a second referendum, collectively at least, did gain rather a lot of ground this evening. well, thank you for that, john. that‘s very interesting and doesn‘t sound like great news for either of the two major parties. for labour or conservative. let‘s look now at the figures as they come up on the screen there. that‘s the number that they have there. ruth jones over 9%. matthew evans just over 7%. played cymry and the greens just under 1,000. but let‘s look at a share of the vote, because the turnout was so much lower than 2017 is what really matters. so there, you see, labour‘s share of the vote was 40%. that compares to 52% in 2017. so that‘s down 12 points. conservative share 31%. that‘s also down. ukip, though, its share of the vote is almost three times higher

thanit vote is almost three times higher than it was last time and plaid cym ry than it was last time and plaid cymry and the lib dems, and even the greens even though they got less than 1,000 there, the share of the vote has all risen. asjohn said, these are the three parties that are explicit in wanting a second referendum. so let‘s have a look at the change in the share of the vote compared to the 2017 general election. and there you can see what i meant when i began this by saying that this result was not great news for labour or conservative. labour will be relieved that its won. conservative will be relieved that they‘re still second and that ukip hasn‘t replaced them there. but if you look at that, the labour share of the vote down 13%. and the three smaller parties, the remain parties up. from a low base and they‘re

still very low, but the share is up. so that is the take away. this is not a great result for you tonight, is it? i think first and foremost, reece jones will is it? i think first and foremost, reecejones will make an excellent result there for newport west. just to interrupt you. i missed one chart. we‘ve got the swing which is from labour to conservative. it‘s interesting. although labour held it, there‘s a 2.4% swing from labour to conservative. so that kind of adds to it not being a great result. you won. always better to win, but it is not a great result. there are two factors here. first and foremost and mps across the house would agree that paul flynn was exceptional and there were many people in newport

west who voted for him, even though they would not necessarily have classify themselves as natural labour voters. he had a personal following. he he did... ithink secondly, you‘re comparing with 2017 when the smaller parties across the country were very definitely squeezed. indeed. and we saw a very different pattern there. the previous elections are more comparable to the result in terms of where we were percentage wise with our vote in newport west which, as we‘ve said, is not an easy territory for labour. it was taken by paul flynn there. although we clearly would have liked to have more votes and great if we had a bigger majority. what we are seeing here, is that we are seeing that labour is, at least, getting some messages

through, in spite of the whole cocophony of brexit sound. there is some messaging getting through that people are very concerned about the policies of the conservative government and they do, genuinely, wa nt government and they do, genuinely, want a change from that. for the conservatives, you‘re back to ukip biting at your heels again. your share of the vote is gone down and ukip is gone way up. three times higher than last time. and you‘re down by a substantial amount. yes. i mean, the facts speak for themselves, but the other fact that speaks for itself is that after nine years of conservative—led government, there's a swing from labour to conservative. and you know, the conservatives have lost votes to ukip. that's clear by the figures. you can't argue with that. that's clear. but what i am surprised about is what's happened to the labour vote. it's gone down to the labour vote. it's gone down to 40%. i mean, iwas to the labour vote. it's gone down to 40%. i mean, i was quite surprised when i saw the swing if i'm honest with you. drop 13%, we dropped 9%. you come up with the figures but to actually have a swing

from labour to conservative — i because labour has lost some to the progressive parties, that skews your figure. labour is not a progressive party. i am saying that there is competition, particularly in a by—election, you know as well as i do that in by—elections people often do that in by—elections people often do something different than they might ina do something different than they might in a general election where they feel much more driven to support a major party. what do you make of this result? the more you look at it, it is not good for either labour or conservative but it must because labour are more worry? it is interesting that labour lost votes to the smaller parties advocating for another referendum. that tells you something and that will put pressure on a labour party thatis

will put pressure on a labour party that is very divided on this issue and we know the labour membership also wants a second referendum and thatis also wants a second referendum and that is the most interesting thing. it puts more pressure onjeremy corbyn who has seemed reluctant to be enthusiastic about a second referendum. he has supported it in certain circumstances. it has not been clear and tonight tells us it has not been clear. the other three smaller parties are clear that they wa nt smaller parties are clear that they want a second referendum. they have got those votes potentially for that reason and those voters are making a point, labour has not been clear to anyone and it has not been clear. what do you make of this? that is said, the interesting thing here is what we were not sure was whether that was an unusual election because it was close after the referendum or are we entering another era of two party politics and very little transfer between both. 0ne swallow does not make a summer and we may well look back and say it was a

weird moment. the interesting trend here, ithink weird moment. the interesting trend here, i think it's partly labour remainers finding somewhere else to go, and conservative labour is finding somewhere else to go. that result looks more normal than newport west did in 2017 and it may be that that election result which gave so much hope for the labour leadership which has transformed the internal position of labour might turn out to be a fluke, it might not and this might be the fluke. turn out to be a fluke, it might not and this might be the flukefi turn out to be a fluke, it might not and this might be the fluke. it is one for the geeks like us. and probably the people watching at home. it is quarter to two in the morning and they fall into our category at this time. one of the remarkable results of the 2017 election was that suddenly it was the return of two party politics, that labour and conservatives between them, in england they got about 84% of the vote and you have to go back to the 1970 election with ted heath and harold wilson and even

before to get that high a percentage. perhaps the significance of this by—election is that the 2017 election may have been an aberration on the return of two party politics. the public will have seen conservative and labour mps leave their own parties to go and do something different. the independent group are not running in that by—election. there is a general sense that people are feeling like they want something else but we have seen very divided parliament. it has not been as simple as conservative labour mps all voting opposing me, we have these different splits and that vote almost reflects the votes going on in parliament, there is no consensus, the whip system has broken down, in these complex times, it is not as binary as conservative votes, labour votes on a certain amendment in the house of commons or on this issue, everyone has different views and that is hard for

the parties now and for the public to know where to put their vote. what lesson do you take from this? it isa what lesson do you take from this? it is a lesson that we need to be listening to people and been very aware of the issues that concern them and i do think that we have had brexit on the political scene and it‘s high time we got back to talking about the real issues that matter to people. had hoped to speak to the winner tonight, ruth jones, had hoped to speak to the winner tonight, ruthjones, who will be in the house of commons, i think in time for the indecktive vote. you came in right away, don‘t you? time for the indecktive vote. you came in right away, don't you? come in straightaway there. so not installed. what happens... sworn in. you‘re sworn in. and there will be two labour people will go with it. and then she‘s... she‘ll be ready for the indicative vote. she'll be able to vote. so that's one of the reasons, other than, of course, we a lwa ys reasons, other than, of course, we always like to speak to winners but

we also wanted to find out if there was any idea on how to vote on the indicative votes but for some reason, labour is not giving us an inter view looking at it, which is just mental arithmetic, that the same percentage rise for ukip and the same for that to want a second referendum, and how is that split across the two parties. we can make an assumption that the second ones we re an assumption that the second ones were there and an assumption there. but it is 50-50. and we're assuming that it was also all brexit. and that it was also all brexit. and that maybe brexit wasn‘t quite the big issue that we think it is in newport west. the good people there and there have been many other issues which could have determined how it went. let‘s go back tojohn curtis. nevertheless, from where we

sit, it does seem interesting that the tories could well be slipping votes away, going to ukip as was happening in 2014 and 15. and that labour‘s slipping votes to parties that are more explicitly second referendum. would that be fair? 0r are we reading too much into it?” think it‘s fair to say that this result is consistent with the evidence of the opinion polls that some of that‘s been going on. it‘s much clearer, by the way, on the conservative side of the fence. if you take the period literally since mid—november, the conservative vote among remainders has held up. it‘s fallen by six points among leave voters. 0n labor‘s side, the evidence isn‘t quite so clear, but then the truth is that back in 2017, labourdid gain ground then the truth is that back in 2017, labour did gain ground amongst both remainder and leavers. but again, there is some suggestion in polls that the labour party has been

losing more ground amongst remainders rather than leavers and the result of the by—election is consistent with that. one more statistic to throw at you which to to say, the extent to which the fragmentation of the result of the constituency is certainly noticeable. 0nly constituency is certainly noticeable. only 70% of the votes cast were for conservative and labour. the figure has never previously been as low as that in this constituency, ever since it was first created in 1983. in part, yes, by—elections and as neil griffiths pointed out, people don‘t else inily do the same thing in by—elections — they‘re more willing to experiment. but still, it‘s noticeable that in a constituency, which historically has been one of the biggest redoubts of traditional two—party politics, the emergence has been at that that great. but i think that a second point to make is that perhaps, here, also, there is a warning to the independent group, the remain party that decided not to come to this particular party, that yes, there‘s been a noticeable increase in

support for combine for all of the parties who are in favour of remain. but the truth is that it won‘t make headlines tomorrow morning because it is fragmented across four different party and this will be a republic miner to the independent —— reminder to the independent group that they‘re potentially going to wa nt to that they‘re potentially going to want to compete, in a contested... a rather heavily contested field. and to that extent, at least, the need for them to think about, in particular, talking to the liberal democrats and coming to some accommodation, is probably going to be necessary sooner rather than later, certainly if we get precipitation in a general election, because otherwise, they may discover that the efforts along with the effo rts that the efforts along with the efforts of all of the other remain could be scattered across the other four or five party that is might wa nt to four or five party that is might want to win the remain vote. let's go back and look at the numbers again, because we love figures and numbers, particularly shares of the vote. asjohn was say thering, on the share of the vote this time, labour and conservative, between

them, if we can go to the share of them, if we can go to the share of the vote, which is the significant rather than the absolute figures, which are skewed because of the lower turnout, so you look there and the share of vote. labour and conservative, between them, got 71%. whereas in 2017, labour and conservative, got 91%. now, as has been argued here, i think rightly, that 2017 was a particularly bonus yearfor that 2017 was a particularly bonus year for the two that 2017 was a particularly bonus yearfor the two big parties. even so, that is quite a remarkable fall from 91% to 71%. and suggests that there are things happening in the undercurrents of british politics at the moment, aren‘t there? undercurrents of british politics at the moment, aren't there? yes, and i mean, this is a really interesting by—election result for precisely that reason. that interesting

revival and because this isjust that reason. that interesting revival and because this is just one constituency, there are lots of big questions this raises. there are very few constituencies where, for example, there‘s only... there was only one party, the greens, opposing the bypass, which is supported by most people. but there‘s an area of scientific level that would have a bypass through it. so maybe the lib dems can do better there. plaid cym ry dems can do better there. plaid cymry aren‘t a party that onlifies there, so maybe the lib dems could be there. in some places, a ukip rerival would be there. that‘s why balls lost his seat in 2015. there is so much going on there with that result. who said by-elections were boring! even when the result is not surprising. when you dig down into the results, there are interesting things to see here. i'm really fascinated by the kip vote, because -- ukip fascinated by the kip vote, because —— ukip vote, because in my, naive westminster bubble, people might

have thought that they'd transformed. that the brand was not the brand that we've known, but perhaps that hasn't cut through to a lot of people. neil hamilton is quite a well known figure in wales, too? yes, and even without nigel farage, people see that brand, they see the logo and they know what it stands for. they think that they know what it stands for. but actually, it surprised me that it hasn't cut through actually to people. i just hasn't cut through actually to people. ijust wonder hasn't cut through actually to people. i just wonder what it would be like if there was the nigel farage brexit candidate there. and i think we said earlier on that ukip is known for something, and if the new alternative isn't there, then that's going to take that share of the vote, so it makes you wonder when you talk about the message sinking through, whether that's there. i'm delighted to say that we have the winner who has joined us. we‘re going back to newport west and we‘re speaking to ruthjones, the new member of parliament for newport west. she‘s a local lass, if i‘m allowed to call you that, in these days. you‘ve been brought up in the area of you‘ve worked in the area

most of your life. in the nhs. you we re most of your life. in the nhs. you were a full time trade union official in there and you‘re now an mpfor official in there and you‘re now an mp for newport west. you‘ll be relieved that you‘ve won. but are you disappointed that you didn‘t win by more? no, not really. ithink paul flynn had a massive personal vote in newport west. everybody knew him. he was here for 32 years, so no, i have no worries in that respect. it was a respectable majority. no recounts — that‘s fine. the no recounts, indeed. your majority was almost 2,000, which given the turnout, is not a bad result for you. but one of the surprising things, as john result for you. but one of the surprising things, asjohn curtis was going through there, is that there was actually a swing from labour to conservative. that must have surprised you? labour to conservative. that must have surprised you ?” labour to conservative. that must have surprised you? i mean, to be honest, i haven‘t actually had a look at the figures yet. the first timei look at the figures yet. the first time i heard them is when they were read out on the platform! 2.396 swing from labour to conservative. but

also, the smaller parties who are strongly for a second referendum, they did, from a very small base, they did, from a very small base, they did, from a very small base, they did pretty well. is that a cause for concern for you? no. i think i‘ve always said that as a labourmp, iwant think i‘ve always said that as a labour mp, i want to play my own furrow and make sure that i make a judgement on the issues as and when they arise. can you help us here, because obviously, you‘re in the thick of this campaign. how big a pa rt thick of this campaign. how big a part did brexit play in it? was it "the" important national issue, or was it just a "the" important national issue, or was itjust a number of local and national issues in the campaign?m was one of a number of issues. 0bviously was one of a number of issues. obviously it was important because of the cloud that brexit is casting over everything else. so in terms of people being worried about universal credit, homelessness. they feel all of this is getting lost at the moment because of the incapacity of

anything else to function, apart from the brexit talks. people are sick to death of seeing brexit day and night on their tvs. and in that way, that‘s turned them off politics. right - they may have been turned off. but i have to tell you, ratings for programmes like this are pretty high when we talk about brexit. they may be turned off but they‘re kind of addicted to it at they‘re kind of addicted to it at the same time. you will get into parliament, i was saying to what is going to be one of your colleagues now in the house of commons, labour colleague nia griffiths who is here in the studio. i was saying that you‘ll be in parliament in time to ta ke you‘ll be in parliament in time to take part on monday‘s indicative vote, which we‘re expecting. do you have a particular form vote, which we‘re expecting. do you have a particularform of vote, which we‘re expecting. do you have a particular form of brexit that you would be prepared to vote for? which you‘ll now have the chance to do in the commons? no. i think at the moment, i‘ve just been elected, so you know, it‘s been within the last hour, i‘ve found the news out. you haven't got long until monday! it's important that i spend

time now to think about things. but i‘m sure that i can spend time there andi i‘m sure that i can spend time there and i have some good colleagues to advise me, too. i'm sure you do. i think i‘m right in saying that you area bit think i‘m right in saying that you are a bit of a people‘s vote supporter, are you not? it's no secret. i‘ve campaigned in 2016 to remain. and i have been out on door steps and things campaigning for that in the past. yes. so, i'm sure mr corbyn, who will be delighted with the result in that you‘ve held the seat for his party. he‘s almost certainly still watching tonight, probably sipping a carrotjuice or something exotic! would you like him to demand from the government, whatever he may agree on the form of the brexit deal, would you like him to insist on a referendum on whatever the deal is?” to insist on a referendum on whatever the deal is? i think, let's be honest — theresa may has spent two and a half years kicking the can down the road. it‘s only now that

she‘s gotjeremy corbyn involved. let‘s see what the talks produce before we decide which way to go on these things. i don‘t know at the moment because obviously jeremy corbyn and theresa may haven‘t got through the talks yet. i‘m waiting and obviously i‘ll wait to see what‘s happening with the talks. you‘re learning already. you managed to dodge the question there. you‘re already getting into the westminster habit. let me put something... i don‘t want to frighten you, but the way that things are in westminster, you may be fighting that seat again before spring is out. how do you fa ncy before spring is out. how do you fancy that! yes, that has been... that idea has been passed through my mind several times throughout this campaign. it is a bit of an issue, but 0k, we‘ve done it once, we‘ll do it again. ok, ruth jones, thank you for joining it again. ok, ruth jones, thank you forjoining us from newport west. we‘ll let you go and celebrate with your supporters and all the people who fought hard in the campaign for

you. that‘s ruthjones live from newport west — the new member of parliament for that constituency. so there we are. labour has held the seat on a reduced majority. small swing to the conservatives. but it‘s still safely in labour hands. the conservatives look like they‘re losing votes to ukip. labour has lost some to the smaller parties. it's lost some to the smaller parties. it‘s a complicated result. it‘s not a surprise. it‘s not an upset. but it‘s a very interesting result nevertheless. thank you forjoining us on nevertheless. thank you forjoining us on this by—election special. until the next one — goodnight or good morning!

welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. i‘m duncan golestani. our top stories: the man accused of the mass killings at two mosques in new zealand has appeared in court. he has been ordered to undergo psychiatric test. boeing says it will take all necessary steps to make its aircraft safe after a preliminary investigation into the ethiopian airlines crash. the leaders of ireland and germany so they are determined to avoid a no—deal brexit and ilan‘s prime minister says the uk needs a credible plan. as anti—government protests continue in sudan, we meet some of the women at the forefront, who are fighting for a different future. and