hello, i'm ros atkins, this is outside source live from london, paris and first israel. i'm lyse doucet injerusalem bringing you all the latest on a very closely fought israeli election. exit polls suggest the result will be tight but that benjamin netanyahu's likud party has been beaten into second place. i'm christian frasier in paris where theresa may has been meeting the french president to try to rent his support for another brexit extension. we'll also be in brussels to look through the eu's draft conclusions for wednesday's summit. one thing is missing — and that's how long this brexit delay will be.

brexit in a few minutes. let's start with israel. the election was closely fought. the example it has been released and though these are predictions, it suggests that everyone‘s inclination was cracked. production is that the right—wing likud party led by benjamin netanyahu likud party led by benjamin neta nyahu has 36 likud party led by benjamin netanyahu has 36 and knesset. and the blue and white alliance led by the former military chief benny gantz won 37 seats. if the poll is correct neither of the major parties will have enough seats to form a government and will have to rely on smaller parties to form a coalition.

note as well labour projected just to pick up eight seats. benny gantz has responded, i'll translate this tweet, ‘we won! in these elections there is a clear winner and a clear loser. bibi promised a0 mandates and lost big'. it may not surprise you to the stomach now, but benjamin netanyahu is claiming victory as well. he tweeted. .. "the right bloc in the likud led won a definite victory. i thank the citizens of israel for the trust. i will start by assembling a right government with our natural partners tonight." lyse doucet is our chief international correspondent and she's injerusalem tonight. we have a situation where both of them are saying they have done very well, how do you read a?” them are saying they have done very well, how do you read a? i have never covered an election anywhere in the world where you have two people, the two main contenders both saying within the first half hour of

the polls closing, we have one. benny gantz is the first off the mark and contract, congratulating the voters and thanking them for confidence expressed in him and benjamin netanyahu confidence expressed in him and benjamin neta nyahu followed confidence expressed in him and benjamin netanyahu followed not long after. there is a crucial difference. benny gantz, and yair lapid said we one, benjamin netanyahu said lapid said we one, benjamin neta nyahu said that lapid said we one, benjamin netanyahu said that was the right block that one. a fundamental point of israeli politics, no one party has gotten through on its own and got the 61 seats of the parliament, it is all about the coalition building. in some ways there is another voting day or another election day which is already started, or effectively began before the polls and that is taking these boats, once they are counted and translating that into a government. let's get some quick analysis from

oui’ let's get some quick analysis from our two expert panelists here. a former member of knesset for the labour party and a co—author of the word return about palestinians and a prominent commentator and academic. and a journalist who is beavering away and cannot believe some of the magic numbers they are telling us about israeli par that my politics. what are you distilling in the last hour? benjamin netanyahu made some bets that seem to have worked out and some that seemed not to. his campaign of excitement and really openly racist accusation seems to have backfired and seems to have turn people off from voting. including what my colleagues said the soft right, people who would vote right but not personally fanatic. and on the other hand he took a big risk when he brokered a deal between three extremist right—wing parties who never had a

chance to make it to knesset and that seems to have paid off. they have made it and they have already called for a law that would grant him immunity from the indictments that are coming up injuly or august. it is a mixed bag for him tonight and that is interesting for a man who normally and israel is considered dominant in the political arena. some of the analysts already saying thank you for your service benjamin netanyahu, sale and other weights although you may have run some of the seats tonight, it is time for you to move on, is it too early to say that? well, it is too early to say that? well, it is too early to say it definitively but it is important to say it generally, but tonight's results as we see them right now do not give benjamin netanyahu right now do not give benjamin neta nyahu the sort right now do not give benjamin netanyahu the sort of unmistakable victory he hoped to get tonight and

thatis victory he hoped to get tonight and that is an important statement. and you would agree? absolutely, and many ways it does under certain areas depending on the exact numbers and we will know tomorrow morning, it opens the path for the israeli president to give the mandate to try to put together a coalition government and certain parties that leads to call as belonging to the right, such a party is really a centrist party fell under certain conditions it could go with benny gantz and not netanyahu path. people have been doing the numbers that generally the balance of opinion seems to be that benjamin netanyahu looks like he stands a better chance of finding the government or they could switch if benny gantz is the person tasked with it. it is also psychological, there are five, ten, even 15 seats that if they get a sense that the time is changing,

they might switch sides. right now they might switch sides. right now they are called belonging to the right but they have been in the past and left—wing governments are going to go to left—wing governments and they might want to maximise their negotiating power so it is not really clear that benjamin netanyahu has the block as he speaks. it is not really a block and is more flimsy than that. we will keep looking at these magic numbers and of course it is more than the arithmetic. they tell us about trends and israeli politics, a country that has been shifting to the right and less expected to shift even more to the right and the selections and it is all about the new israeli parliament. let's look at what is up for grabs there. 120 seats are up for grabs and the parties that win the highest numbers will get the chance to try and form a new government. if most predictions are correct,

it would either be benjamin netanyahu's it would either be benjamin neta nyahu's likud it would either be benjamin netanyahu's likud or at the blue and white party of benny gantz and yair lapid who will be given the opportunity and the chance to for government. they are accounting now for about half the seats. the remainder of that seats will go to some of the 41 other parties taking pa rt some of the 41 other parties taking part in the selection. this is a record number of parties at an israeli election, reflecting the ideological, ethnic and religious diversity of israeli society. in some mindset actually reflects the divisions. as we have been saying forming a government is no easy task. no party in israel has ever won enough knesset seats to govern alone. no party has gotten 61 seats in the

knesset to form a government on its own. and has to be coalition building and that started even before the israelis went to the polls today. that was starting with party readers talking to parties right along the ideological spectrum saying if i give you this i will give you that and tonight that process is intensifying. mitchell isjoining us, and the former member of knesset and you know what the stats are like and you have the smile of a pollster. you know the numbers game with fell.|j didn't remember this happening in a very long and remember with us but what seems to be deep to the two top priorities, blue and likud have enough seats to form a government in themselves and i did not remember that happening for many decades. they do not have the 61...

that happening for many decades. they do not have the 61. .. but the stomach together they could have a very strong government and that is the old days of labour and likud when they would get enough seats and could actually do it so it is a significant shift and part of that is the third—largest party of what they are predicting is seven seats. which is the religious party. they are always six or seven. and labour. has been discussed and a little bit more discussion as polls were closing and in private there has been discussion about what would be called a national unity government and no one discussed that openly perhaps they saw it as it would ruin their chances at the polls, is it possible that benny gantz and benjamin netanyahu, benny gantz was the army chief during his time as prime minister said they have words together. it is only possible if

netanyahu is reading the government andl netanyahu is reading the government and i did not see benny gantz or not know who going into a government led by benny gantz. and benjamin netanyahu, by benny gantz. and benjamin neta nyahu, when we by benny gantz. and benjamin netanyahu, when we talk about momentum and i have to see if the tide is changing, he does not look like a winner right now. i do not wa nt like a winner right now. i do not want to say he looks like a loser because you have got a lot of seats, 33, 34, 35 is a lot and it is very significant and very impressive but it looks like he is gasping for air and when that happens and benny gantz looks like he is full of air and full of vigour, and kind of has the wind in his back, a lot of parties will see that and that is really significant. the question will be as we discussed before, if benjamin netanyahu does not get the mandate and it is not clear that you will be around heading the likud for a long time and that certainly reads an opportunity for at the likud to stomach together, either leaderless

or you can have to party sit down without all the nellie's and horse training and say the country needs us training and say the country needs us out especially if we do not have the leader we have had for the past decade. we need to do this together and anything is possible here. those numbers are really important because they can close it. do you think when they can close it. do you think when the numbers of the coalition become clear it will still be a shift to the right, the labour party, the merits, they still seem to be an deep knesset, smaller number of seats but they are still there, what they want to join a government? they we nt very they want to join a government? they went very much like to join a government with benny gantz but there is always the desire to tell there is always the desire to tell the story of israel shifting to the right where as literally every election for decades now has seen israel evenly split between left and right and it is really about the margins of how coalitions are created and the same thing is happening now. blue and right doug

white is channeling the old labour party and together with the old labour party and others, they have over 45 seats and that was always the case, it is a very significant block but it isjust know that people saw and blue and white a real chance to have a different prime ministerand even chance to have a different prime minister and even voters of merits and labour flocked to blue and white to have a chance at unseating benjamin netanyahu. stay with us, we are going for the moment to pause and think about what the people who didn't vote in these elections but whose fate very much depends on the selections, palestinians, we will be watching these results coming in, we can watching these results coming in, we ca n ci’oss watching these results coming in, we can cross to the west bank to speak to the veteran politician. we have been emphasising the us are just projections and we do not know for sure who will be asked to find the

next government and israel, but what are your initial reactions? we are not surprised actually and i do not think this has been elections with a competition between left and right, on the contrary, i think big parties, we are both right. this is a competition between right and right wing. if there is something important to mention about these elections, it is probably indicating the death of the so—called camp and israel. if you count the number of people who were elected he would support a two state solution, the number would not exceed 18, members out of 120, there are palestinian arabs who are israeli citizens so it isa arabs who are israeli citizens so it is a citizen shift —— significant shift to the right but also to racism and all these parties want to

keep occupation and none of them is ready to accept a two state solution