tv [untitled] May 3, 2019 5:35am-6:01am BST
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none of them have been on tonight. just a take on where you are now? as hasjust been just a take on where you are now? as has just been said, just a take on where you are now? as hasjust been said, we are only a third of the way through the counting we may see the picture changing as the day progresses. but clearly, there have been local issues at play where there have been independents, for example. and those would have been played out on local issues. we were pleased to have taken issues. we were pleased to have ta ken trafford, a issues. we were pleased to have taken trafford, a highly contested council. and we are doing well in plymouth, where again, it was a difficult situation over the last few years. but at this stage, we are nowhere near the end, but a significant chunk of votes have been recorded. does this honestly look to you like a set of results that could seejeremy you like a set of results that could see jeremy corbyn you like a set of results that could seejeremy corbyn on the march to number ten? well, in some seats,
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like swindon south and thurrock, these are seats that on what we have seen tonight, would be gains in a parliamentary election. but it's difficult to compare what happens locally, where people are looking very much at local issues, and what would happen in a general election, we re clearly, would happen in a general election, were clearly, it is more likely that they will vote for a bigger party because of the electoral system. whereas in a local election, it can bea whereas in a local election, it can be a strong personality. there can be a strong personality. there can be all sorts of reasons why people might choose to do things differently. year round hard work. john curtice was looking earlier at the overall changes in vote share. that might be one way to try and even out what is going on here with the different councils. tojust even out what is going on here with the different councils. to just say
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it is nuanced because of local issues doesn't make a lot of sense. for example, the conservatives on the ground, i do not see them being, sorry, young and active and knocking on doors. you should come to my constituency. i have been to a lot of places where we are challenging sitting conservative councillors, and they are not doing that work. i think there is a genuine problem with the conservatives on the ground, and that would show up if you were to look at overall vote share across the country. the other thing is that we are all excited about getting more seats in trafford, but when you showed the vote share in chaff and earlier, we should be getting 15 councillors in trafford if you were looking at genuine representation. we should be holding the balance of power on a lot more councils. when you ran the council, it was a shambles in
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brighton. thanks for bringing that | brighton. thanks for bringing that up! when we had a minority control of brighton council, we won awards for our transport work, for our work oi'i for our transport work, for our work on sorting out the town centre. what about the bins? the bins were a problem trying to sort out an equalities issue that the labour council had left on the shelf for years. this was equal pay between men and women. they waited and waited to sort it out and they handed it over to the greens and made an enormous thing about it, but so made an enormous thing about it, but so much went right under the greens. it will be interesting to see what happens in brighton tomorrow. the other one that is interesting is solihull, where the greens are the official opposition. we have been going and going on that council for years now. we have a lovely big group of councillors and we could be doing very well in the next election and this election. solihull is an
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interesting place to look at because it is the conservatives versus the greens and it will be interesting to see how that works out. greens and it will be interesting to see how that works outlj greens and it will be interesting to see how that works out. i do think the focus on climate change over the la st the focus on climate change over the last fortnight has given a boost to the greens. it has boosted overall vote share, but the places where we go across the line through first past the post, which is incredibly hard, that is only done through local work. we can't take any votes for granted, the way so many labour and conservative mps do. but you can promise the earth, because you know you will never have to make the difficult decisions. we would love to be able to do those, because we have confidence in our policies. when we sit in councils, even when there are just two or three of us, we can make a difference to the way councils do things. we put forward ideas that nobody else is. we can bring a fresh —— breath of fresh
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air. can i have a look at hinckley and bosworth? this is interesting, because this is where the lib dems may well be on course for taking over. the change will tell us the story. hinckley and bosworth is looking very good for the lib dems. on that lib dem theme, let's ask reeta to ta ke lib dem theme, let's ask reeta to take us through the main lib dem gains so far. here they are. bath and north east somerset has just come in as a big lib dem gain.
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earlier, we had cotswold and winchester, all three councils taken from the conservatives by the liberal democrats. and just north norfolk, which had been in no overall control, now liberal democrat. let me show you the details of the results in bath and north east somerset. this had been a conservative council. the conservatives had a majority of seven. look how that has changed. liberal democrat majority of 15, with the lib dems taking 37 seats compared to the conservatives' nine. let me show you how the seat change has worked. almost a complete straight swap, so a striking result for the liberal democrats in bath and north east somerset.
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reeta, thank you. laura, if you're sitting in downing street, ready to have breakfast, may be at six o'clock or 6.30, and looking ahead to the rest of the day because is lots more to come, you could end up ina lots more to come, you could end up in a position which is noticeably worse than losing 330. how does that change the dynamics of the way that mrs may is trying to manage what is already a fractious party? well, if it ends up being a lot worse than it appears now, as we have already seen from priti patel, it may stir up again in another sense that people might try to oust her in short order. our expectation is that that probably won't happen until after the european elections, but if things change very much in the next 12 hours, you could see another
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stoking of the fire. and with any set of results, just because elections create a moment, i certainly expect that we were here over the next day more articulation of unhappiness with her. the more interesting thing for me is whether both party leadership ‘s, they might not want to admit it publicly, but look at this two fingers up to both of them from the electorate, and say, we have to try harder to make this work in terms of them being able to find a cross—party compromise on brexit. that is hugely risky for both of them inside their own parties, and also maybe with some voters. i don't think we can ta ke some voters. i don't think we can take tonight whether or not the message of support going to the lib dems and the greens is either stop brexit or get on with brexit or, we have had enough of both of you. let me bring gunning on this as well. one of the issues is that you start looking at these figures and then
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the natural thing in terms is to look at predictions in terms of westminster seats. that again is a tricky area to be in, but it's one of the areas that is of interest to us. john, i know you have been looking at this. what can you tell us looking at this. what can you tell us about the results so far and the possible impact on westminster patterns? well, one of the things we have been doing throughout the night is collecting the detailed ward by ward results across 40 council areas. that means for some parliamentary constituencies, we can now tell you which party was ahead and whether or not, therefore, the party that was ahead on thursday, yesterday, is different from the party that won in 2017. laura earlier in the programme quoted from labour sources some examples of where the labour party was ahead and some of the constituencies they didn't win in 2017. i'm afraid i
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have a list of constituencies where the conservatives were ahead on thursday, but labour were behind, bolton north east, derby north and wirral west. so given that the labour party still has to make quite a substantial advance to have any prospect of winning an overall majority, it is not the kind of result to suggest the labour party are heading in that direction. but before the conservatives get too cocky and to confirm that indeed, we have been seeing evidence of the liberal democrats reviving in some of the places where they had strength but recently fell back, i have another list of four seats where the liberal democrats came first which the conservatives had been holding hitherto, cheadle, stockport, hazel grove, portsmouth south, all of them constituencies that the liberal democrats held either until 2015 or in the case of stockport until 2017. yes, the liberal democrats always do better in local elections than general elections, but it's an indication that in these places, perhaps there
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isa that in these places, perhaps there is a prospect of a liberal democrat revival that might mean that some of these constituencies might be taken back by the party in a forthcoming general election. that's an interesting prospect. any of those surprising you? not to be honest. the labour party has been making ground especially in the south of england, yes, that list i gave you was not particularly southern. bolton, bury and the wirral are all in the north of england and that fits the wider pattern. and sure, given we've been discovering the lib dems have been tending to do better in those places where they already had a degree of strength, these are the kind of places you would expect liberal democrats to come back first. but remember, one of the crucial patterns of tonight has been conservative loss, labour loss of the councils as well as seats. very
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little in the way of conservative gains and labourgains. little in the way of conservative gains and labour gains. while insofar as the liberal democrats might in an early general election be able to win more seats, given the evidence from scotland and we have to rely on the opinion polls that the snp aren't going anywhere outside of westminster any time soon, i think everyone who keeps on arguing, may be the way out of the brexit impasse is to have another general election, they should remember that perhaps there is a nontrivial probability that we would end up with another hung parliament and frankly whether it's a hung parliament in which we either have a labour or conservative prime minister, it might prove to be a parliament that is incapable of reaching a decision about brexit as the current one. that's a cheerful conclusion at 5:47am! once i said cheerful, he started laughing! i'm
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wondering, because we are off there in ten minutes or so, but of course we will be back on later with more results later in the morning. for those of you just tuning in now if they are getting up early and just seeing these figures, what is your ta keaway seeing these figures, what is your takeaway thought at the end of this set of results for us? these are a set of results for us? these are a set of results in which the conservative party has fallen back. it's fallen back quite clearly both as compared with the seat being fought in 2015 and as compared with the position 12 months ago. though it hasn't fallen back to the extent you might have imagined from some opinion polls, not least perhaps because the brexit party was not there to challenge. we've also learned that the opinion polls have been somewhat different. they are all saying no party had lost ground in recent months but they were all suggesting no party had lost ground
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as much as conservative. if you compare this year's results with la st compare this year's results with last year's it looks as though the labour party more or less has lost just as much ground as the conservatives. and therefore, the big broad message has been that this has not been a set of local elections in which we say leave vote rs elections in which we say leave voters punished the conservatives or remain voters punish labour, it has beena remain voters punish labour, it has been a message that voters punish both parties and particularly seem to have done so in parts of the country and in local areas where they are particularly strong. who i beneficiaries? in part the lib dems, as we have talked about, although it isa as we have talked about, although it is a modest improvement, not a dramatic improvement. the lib dems are still not as strong as they were before 2010, they went into coalition. the real surprise perhaps above all is the surprising results that a above all is the surprising results thata number above all is the surprising results that a number independents have achieved and we are looking at over 100 independent gains of councillors in some places like bolsover and
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ashfield were independents are now in control. but also a good night for the greens. in double figures in terms of their average vote share, clearly up from last year about five or six points. they have also made significant gains of councils. that leaves us with the big question that, although in 2017 we were looking at a situation where it looked as though conservative and labour had restored their dominance to british electoral politics, after this evening, even without the challenge of either the brexit party or change uk, the two new kids on the block, the electoral hold of the conservative and labour parties on the british electorate is frankly looking now as weak as it has done at any point in post—war british politics. john, thank you, and we we re politics. john, thank you, and we were looking there at the keyboard statistics backing up what you are saying. we will talk later, john. thank you. why don't we ask reeta at
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this point, within minutes of the end of this part of our broadcast, to bring us up—to—date with the key results. one of the main themes of the night has been the loss of seats by the two main parties. the conservatives and labour. and the liberal democrats making gains largely at the expense of the conservatives. the screen here gives you a good impression of what has happened overnight. councils like bath and north east somerset, hinckley and bosworth, the liberal democrats are taking those from the conservatives. let me show you what happened here in bath and north east somerset. this was a labour gain with a majority of 15, and look at that. 37 lib dems... lib dems, i beg your pardon. a liberal democrat gain. 37 lib dems councillors elected there with just nine conservatives. i will show you the seat change there. there you go. 23
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liberal democrat councillors gained and 24 lost by the conservatives. almost straight swap. let's go back to the main screen. other stories emerging overnight either conservatives in certain places falling behind. they lost folkestone and hythe, for example. that is now in no overall control. better news for them in walsall and in north east lincolnshire, where they gained both these councils. for labour, as well, a very mixed picture. they lost control of bolsover, that has now become an independent counsel. a group of independents have won there. and in wirral, this is also a labour loss. let me go in and show you what happened there. labour short by two, although they were the largest party. let me just show
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you... the labour losses there. they lost four seats. perhaps even more interestingly is the share change. this is, you can see in terms of the share of the vote, labour losing 13% of the share and the greens being clear beneficiaries of gaining 12% of the share. just back to that main screen again. better news for labour in trafford. they had been in a minority administration there and they are now in overall control of trafford. greeter, thanks very much. to my dearfriends trafford. greeter, thanks very much. to my dear friends on the panel, with thanks for being with us, you get a sentence each to tell us where you think you are. of course there is much more to come and maybe we will be in a rather different place at the end of friday, we don't know. there is a trend already. we can kind of see which way we are travelling. sian, festival,
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concluding thought. we've made a lot of gains and we've hardly reached in terms of accounting any of our existing seats. the gains we have been making here, the councils we have broken through into, i think is really significant. at the last count, 33 games out of 39 seats that we won. if you compare that proportion to the other parties, we really are just surging ahead. when we start to get through to places where we already have councillors, we will be able to see whether there is any to that but generally it's a very positive vote for us today and i'm looking forward to european elections. thank you. not many people saying that in the other parties! laughter nia, your thoughts on where you are? clearly these elections will never be easy and there are many more results to come. we are pleased to have ta ken control of results to come. we are pleased to have taken control of trafford and maintained control in plymouth. it is notable that tories have lost seats in areas you wouldn't expect
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them like basildon, tonbridge, st albans, southend. ithink them like basildon, tonbridge, st albans, southend. i think that's a pattern we are seeing. clearly there have been at play and it will be interesting to analyse in more detail but it's obviously very important for us to make sure we are listening to what people are saying and take on board their messages. 0k, and take on board their messages. ok, marcus. there is still a long wait to go in there is clearly we expected to lose probably around 1000 seats. clearly we are not anywhere near there yet but there is anywhere near there yet but there is a long way to go. i think the positive for us tonight is that we have made some very good inroads in the midlands and the north, particularly into the heartlands of labour territory and the situation for labour is very, very challenging and difficult in the midlands and north because of the way in which they haven't had clarity in terms of brexit. we can't take anything other from these results other than people
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are frustrated and people, whether they are leave or remain, and we saw this from the results in sunderland, i think people want their politicians to get on with it, they wa nt politicians to get on with it, they want their politicians to deliver brexit and they want to get something over the line and that brings me back to members of parliament, perhaps reflecting over the weekend and just thinking, what is the easiest way to achieve that? clearly there is already a package on the table and a part two to that which would then require debate and discussion, but that is there and i think members of parliament need to look at that over the weekend. thank you very much. a quick look at the scoreboard. very quick look to know where we are at the end this broadcast. the tories currently down 358, labour down 74 and the lib dems up 358, labour down 74 and the lib dems up 239. big gains for the greens, as
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we've mentioned, and for the independents, two and ukip making losses. that's it. laura, in a sentence... what are we looking forward to for the rest of the day in terms of notable things? concept is waking up will feel relieved but they may not feel like that by the end of the day. will the scale of their losses increase? will labour be able to turn that around and start seeing the kind of games they have to be making at this stage? thank you as ever for being company through the whole journey. pleasure. bbc coverage continues on the bbc news channel and on bbc breakfast. from us, goodbye.
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good morning, welcome to breakfast with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. results have been coming in throughout the night in this year's local elections. it's bad news for both the conservatives and labour, as voters turn away from the two main parties. there are gains for the lib dems and the greens — and it's been a good night for a number of independent candidates. lots of counting still to come throughout the day, but this morning the kvists and labour already licking their wounds and plenty are blaming brexit.
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