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tv   HAR Dtalk  BBC News  May 16, 2019 4:30am-5:01am BST

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this is bbc news, the headlines: president trump's declared a national emergency to protect communication networks from what he calls ‘foreign adversaries,‘ in effect barring american companies from using overseas telecoms firms thought to be a security risk. it's most likely aimed at the chinese company huawei, which has also been placed on a special list by the us commerce department. the governor of alabama has signed into law a bill which outlaws almost all abortions. the only exemption: when the mother's life is judged to be at serious risk. an increasing number of republican—led states are pushing to get abortion rights reconsidered at the highest level — by the supreme court. at a summit in france, five tech giants have announced an action plan they say will combat violent extremist content online. amazon, google, microsoft, twitter and facebook are responding in part to the mass killings live—streamed by a far—right gunman as he
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attacked mosques in new zealand. now on bbc news it's hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. by the time vladimir putin's current presidential term ends, you will have dominated russian politics for a quarter of a century and already there is talk of manoeuvres to ensure his grip on power is maintained beyond 202a. here is the world's greatest ——he is the world's greatest exponent of strongman rule. my greatest exponent of strongman rule. my guest today has spent the putin yea rs my guest today has spent the putin years and thankless, fruitless opposition. grigory yavlinsky‘s brand of liberal economics and political reform has failed to take route. is it because, unlike putin,
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he doesn't speak to russia's heart? grigory yavlinsky, welcome to hardtalk. thank you for your invitation. you have had many years, i guess you could say too many yea rs, to i guess you could say too many years, to consider why vladimir putin has succeeded and you, in politics in russia, have consistently failed. what is the key to understanding that? history of russia is a very long story and tradition in russia, as you know, is
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not very liberal. and i am fighting for new era in russia, for liberal reforms, for human rights, for justice, for divisions of powers. that never happens in russia but i'm doing that only for 30 years. it's not enough. is it your conclusion that the russian people simply aren't interested in some of the concepts that you've outlined? justice, human rights. is that not appealing to the russian public?|j think appealing to the russian public?” think russian people is not very different from the other people in europe or north america. but there is no tradition, no experience and no fruitful results of the economic reforms in 90s. just opposite. the economic reforms in
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russia, with the support of the world, created putin's system itself. the system, where is the merger. government, property and business altogether. in the same. and yet when we look at russian politics today and your role in it, we can't but look at the evidence of elections and opinion polls. you, as long ago as 1996, ran for the presidency of russia and you scored a respectable 7% or so. the last time you ran in the last election in 2018, you scored the rather pathetic outcome of 1%. vladimir putin of course, consistently scores over 60%. yes, but from 96 until 2018, the
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procedural actions deteriorated extremely. it's nothing having common with the presidential elections anymore. it's a kind of plebiscite about putin. that may be so plebiscite about putin. that may be so and the plebiscite says, the russian people like what they see. right. no, it's saying they'd don't see alternative. there is no alternative on the screens of russian media. russian media is com pletely russian media. russian media is completely one thing all the other thing. we have economic growth when the oil prices were more than $120 a barrel so this combination of these two things, of course, made a special vision of the people. the
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main thing is, in putin's system, there is no political competition andi there is no political competition and i was taking part in the elections, to have an opportunity to speak to the people, to say to them, in russian of course, the same things that i'm telling to you. but iam things that i'm telling to you. but i am looking at the arc of history, not just i am looking at the arc of history, notjust in i am looking at the arc of history, not just in russia i am looking at the arc of history, notjust in russia but around the world, in recent years and surely one can conclude that vladimir putin saw much earlier than many politicians the power of marrying a very strong authoritarian tone to a nationalist and populist message. he wove nationalism into his political offer. now you and the liberals in russia, as i said at the very beginning of this programme, have com pletely beginning of this programme, have completely failed, it seems to me, to connect on an emotional and maybe even nationalistic level with your own people. to some extent, you're right but i want to
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say what happens with putin and his ideas in the world is not his advantage. it's a disadvantage over the world politics. but russia today looks stronger than it has for many, many yea rs, stronger than it has for many, many years, both to russians inside your comfort tree and indeed to many observers outside russia who see vladimir putin in the middle east, for example, even in recent chaotic situations like venezuela, projecting russian power. it's not about russian power. it's about influence which can rush i'd just put in the world politics in this situation, with the impetus of the world politics. simply, world leaders are absolutely not prepared to do anything with the
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complicated blooms, as you know. i'm not going to speakjust blooms, as you know. i'm not going to speak just about blooms, as you know. i'm not going to speakjust about mr trump, with north korea or great britain with brexit, or france with the yellow jackets or poland with the nationalism or hungary with the same thing. it's spreading everywhere and it's a problem... but vladimir putin has tapped into something extremely powerful in your country and if we start with ukraine, close to home on the border, a country which russia is always seen as part of its wider sphere of influence, in 2014, when vladimir putin decisively decided to send troops into crimea and indeed send troops into crimea and indeed send some troops into eastern ukraine as well, the russian public absolutely loved it and the annexation of crimea has kept his popularity high ever since.
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first of all, not everybody in russia liked that. not everybody, but look at the poles, be realistic. a big number of people but not everybody. secondly, what happens at least i would say in the eastern ukraine, it's a crime. dozens of people, dozens of thousands of people is killed there. you have said that. you said quite clearly, the annexation of crimea itself is an unlawful act. crimea is not ours. annexation of crimea is unlawful act, there is no doubt of that. but it's necessary to clarify that. but it's necessary to clarify that to the world and our people.” admire, ifi that to the world and our people.” admire, if i may say so, your determination to speak out when you are swimming against a very strong tide but nonetheless, if you look at the impact of what your position has
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had on politics, you are portrayed by putin's people and many others in russia as somebody who is fundamentally unpatriotic, who is betraying the interests of russians. this is not true, and they known —— they know that, because i'm trying to look for the future of russia. not only for today. strategically, strategically, what happens in crimea, in donbass and mostly in syria, is a trap of the future of russia. this is the point, the key point. we are losing with that kind of politics, russia is losing its future. well, you say that in the economist magazine which is not given to hyperbole in these matters, says that as a result of russia's policies in syria —— syria and
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particularly, there is a new swagger about the world. it says moscow has turned into a centre of significant middle east diplomacy. economist magazine sees vladimir putin exercising a real authority, turning russia into a credible player in strategic politics in the middle east. there are two things to say. first, it's just a very short review. it's not for a long time. we tune in, it was about ten years in afghanistan, and lost 15,000 lives and what happens in the end? all that collapsed ? but and what happens in the end? all that collapsed? but you can say in the middle of this ten years, in the middle, everywhere, he was strong, he was fighting, sometimes it happens with americans
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in via an arm, with the russians, the soviets in afghanistan. today the soviets, the russians are in syria, but it's a very, very difficult situation from the point of view of consequences. i from the point of view of consequences. | see from the point of view of consequences. i see what you're saying, and pessimism is sometimes very well justified but you are saying, and pessimism is sometimes very welljustified but you are in the unfortunate position, with your views, you are sort of suggesting the russian people have in idiots because i've been looking at the opinion poll evidence and dug into ita opinion poll evidence and dug into it a little bit the most recent surveys of opinion show that russian people have a +34 approval rating for people have a +34 approval rating foeradimir people have a +34 approval rating for vladimir putin strengthening russian military or —— material. a +29 rating for vladimir improving russian's standing internationally. first, russia have no opinion polls, forget about that. don't use that.
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an authoritarian system, opinion polls by the state agency is not possible. but russia isn't north korea. when you go home, you can speak to newspapers, there are certain radio stations that will put you on air. it's not north korea.” can speak to one newspaper into one radio station. i can't make that kind of interview on russian television. it's not possible at all. attire was taking part in the so—called presidential elections, to be able to say something to the people. now, secondly, whati be able to say something to the people. now, secondly, what i want to say, not only problem with opinion polls but also sometimes it happens that for a long time, you are, looks like a
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complete failure in politics. mr churchill was in that position sometime. you are saying to me, your time is yet to come, despite the fact you've been in politics for the last 30 years. what i want to say, my time, i'm not sure, but the time for my ideas will come. let's think about russia's status one more time, let's think about what we see and again, use say surveys aren't important. they can sometimes be telling. 70% of russians now say they believe josef stalin played a positive role in the country's history. there is something going on here about russia's attraction to stability, strong man rule, if i can put it that way. authoritarianism. actually, for russian people, when they look back at history, it
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is delivering. yes, russians are taking this stance and this view because the current putin system is based on some principles which were created by stalin. principles like ends justify the means. the people are not important. the life or death is not important. the life or death is not important. the life or death is not important any more. so many things... rights, there is no rights, there is no system of justice, there is no system of laws. it is only like a declaration. yes, we have a declaration which looks like western countries but in substance it is still the power of one personality. but you said yourself that russians have very strong and clear memories of the chaos of the 1990s. they remember the absolute poverty, the
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destitution that came with the colla pse destitution that came with the collapse of the soviet union and the crony capitalism and the anarchy that we saw in the mid— 90s. you we re that we saw in the mid— 90s. you were a reformer at the time, you wa nted were a reformer at the time, you wanted a market—based system. maybe you didn't want the chaos, but you're associated with those failures. and what we see with vladimir putin today is... maybe it's a stagnant economy but it's a sta ble it's a stagnant economy but it's a stable economy. it has low debt, low deficits. indeed, the imf praises russia for its responsible management of the public finances. yes, you're absolutely right. the wave of reforms which were completed, accomplished in the 90s, was wrong. now a lot of people understand that. they created, as i told you before, this system, the system of mafia state. russia today isa system of mafia state. russia today
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is a kind of a mafia state. right, but in the mid— 90s 30% of russians lived in poverty, now it's down to 1296 lived in poverty, now it's down to 12% or 13%. russia's people measure the reality of putin pass russia today against what they remember of that chaotic. and frankly they still stick with putin today. yes, this is right, but it doesn't mean that this is their choice forever. it is interesting to compare along the strong propaganda. it is the understandable outcome of that. but you can recall what happens in europe in the 1930s with italy, with mousseline e, for example. i'm not thinking about germany. it's a very special case. but let's speak about italy, let speak about mussolini, everybody was so happy with him, everybody was so happy with him, everybody was so happy with him, everybody was voting for him,
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everybody was voting for him, everybody was voting for him, everybody was supporting him. western countries were so happy because there was no unemployment, economic growth. but that is the way to nowhere. now it is clear.” economic growth. but that is the way to nowhere. now it is clear. ijust wonder, again i'm thinking about how the russian opposition changes the dynamic because you'd be the first to agree that frankly right now you're not gaining traction. your opinion poll standings, if you care about them, are incredibly low and there is no sign of momentum growing on the streets or anywhere else. maybe it's time for you to come up with a different economic message which is less pro—western, less addicted to sort of neoliberal western economic arguments and is more intrinsically russian in its character. i'm not trying to implement western recipe or western model. when i'm talking i'm speaking about the model necessary for
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russia. whether it is like western or not like western at the moment, it is not so important. it is in the minds of many russians. it is in the minds of many russians. it is in the minds of many russians. it is in the minds of many russians because putin pass system is trying to penetrate in the brains. look, you know, eve ryo ne in the brains. look, you know, everyone is saying in the world that putin is trying to influence american elections and americans are almost crazy about that. so you can imagine what he can do in russia. how he can influence these opinion polls, how he can influence all the other things in the elections, in the results of the elections. so it's not about what is he doing. my point is what is necessary for my country. i understand that and i'm
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trying to get my head around where you go from here because with respect, you and i have talked before years ago and frankly you haven't really made political headway in the years since. 0ver haven't really made political headway in the years since. over the yea rs headway in the years since. over the years i've spoken to people like gary kasparov, the late rs nemtsov, who i interviewed a couple of times, and of course we know what happened to him, gunned downjust outside the kremlin. strong country, strong putin. my point was all of you, powerful, charismatic individuals who have failed to connect it seems to me with russia's electorate. 1—mani to me with russia's electorate. 1—man i did interview who did seem to strike a real connection was alexei navalny because his message is it seems to me more nationalistic, it has a more russian component to it. novelli wasn't allowed to run in the presidential election last time, you were. should you be learning some lessons from noveu you be learning some lessons from novell knee? no. because?
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nationalism for russia means war. sooner or later, that's it. that's the point. do you think then, if you see an unacceptable nationalism alongside authoritarianism in the putin regime that russia is ultimately on a track to war? that's what i want to underline. it's a real threat. that's what i want to underline. it's a realthreat. in that's what i want to underline. it's a real threat. in the that's what i want to underline. it's a realthreat. in the ukraine or where? it can happen anywhere. in iran, for example, where 100,000 military would come from the united states as they're discussing at the moment, in syria or in ukraine, easily, or somewhere else, this is the nature of that kind of system and this is a question of time. sooner or later it comes to that point and if you just make a record of mr putin and what he's saying on this issue, you will see clearly
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that he is prepared for that and he's looking for the opportunity for that. i'm just he's looking for the opportunity for that. i'mjust thinking he's looking for the opportunity for that. i'm just thinking to myself, perhaps vladimir putin has bbc world news in the kremlin, perhaps he's watching this interview right now, perhaps he's heard you making a comparison with winston churchill and let's not forget, winston churchill spent decades in the political wilderness before he came to power... when he came. do you think when vladimir putin listens to you say that and you say my politics, my ideas will have their time in russia and they will come, do you think he takes you seriously or do you think he laughs at you?” think he knows that, he agrees with that but he don't know what to do. he's in the corner. he put himself in the corner, in the dead end. he absolutely knows that i'm right. not about myself that that idea is the only future for russia. he knows that. so here is the question for
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you, if you are to have credibility, you, if you are to have credibility, you explain to me how you think it is that the system, because your focus not just on is that the system, because your focus notjust on putin as an individual but the system, how is the system going to be fundamentally challenged and dismantled by the opposition in russia? this is the main and key question, what would happen after putin, this is the key question. because if the system would stay in place then would come another person after putin but nothing would be changed. even worse, would be even worse than now. running the same machine. absolutely. my question is to would bring this down, street action, popular resistance? it's not going to be the ballot box because you say elections are rigged and false. the main issue for today
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and the main question for today is to create the big, large, political, civil, democratic opposition party. that's what i'm doing. you're at 1% in the polls. gentleman, don't believe russian polls. it doesn't matter, may be half % in the polls, it doesn't matter. you're asking me what is necessary to do, i'm telling you what is necessary to do. it is necessary for the first time in the history of russia to create the civil political democratic force. that kind of a force, maybe this is not for the first time, second time, which started and completed successful and peaceful reforms 30 yea rs successful and peaceful reforms 30 years ago. 30 years ago. 00:24:54,1000 --> 00:24:55,995 it happens only once. it's not about me. we're out of time but how can
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where talking about ideas, maybe some people will come but that is what is needed today. grigory yavlinsky, we have to do end it there but we thank you very much for being on hardtalk.” there but we thank you very much for being on hardtalk. i appreciate it. hello there. the temperatures peaked atjust shy of 26 degrees celsius yesterday in highland scotland. it was warm for all, but the 26 will be the highest in this current warm spell because temperatures and the heat are gradually going to ebb away. it'll still be warm through the day ahead and feel pleasant enough, but the high pressure that's been ruling the roost is drifting a little further north across scandinavia, so it allows more of an easterly breeze to pick up and it will drag in more
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cloud as well. the combination will lower our temperatures. still through the night under the starry skies it has been chilly in some areas. could be a little bit of early morning mist and fog — that will clear — and sea fret and sea haar in the north and a few showers potentially for the western side of scotland but perhaps later for northern ireland. for most, another dry, bright, warm day with hazy sunshine. we pick up a little more cloud filtering west across england and wales and a bit more of a breeze, and those two together will knock the temperatures down a little but still looking to reach 20 degrees in the warmth in the north and west but we will notice the keen breeze of the north sea coast. the sun is just as strong, be it 14 or 24. thursday and friday we started to pick up some rain. through the evening and overnight. initially quite light and patchy but through the day on friday it could turn heavier and it will blanket falling temperatures in the central and eastern areas.
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chilliest weather further north under clear skies. friday looks like a cloudier day, as you can see. there will be rain, thicker cloud, enough to give showery rain. making its way westwards and eventually to the eastern side of scotland, so we will hold onto some sunshine in the western of scotland and northern ireland, but temperatures again down another two or three degrees, because not only were we have rain but the winds will be stronger still on friday. very keen for the north sea coast. we lose those winds in the south as we go into the weekend but we do keep the cloud by then, with showers around and light winds that will be slow—moving. the devil's in the detail this weekend. the weather front will bring more persistent rain to the northern half of the country, particularly scotland and northern england, perhaps not reaching northern ireland, and then further south we lose the wind but we pick up slow—moving heavy showers. they're close to a centre of low pressure. by sunday, that's almost gone and we're just into this very slack wind regime that means we will not see much whether generally
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slow—moving heavy showers moving out mostly in the north as temperatures start to bounce back in the south. as always, more regional detail on our website.
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this is the briefing. i'm sally bundock. our top story: president trump declares a national emergency to stop us companies using any telecoms equipment from foreign companies seen as a threat. dozens are arrested in russia following ongoing protests over the building of a new cathedral. ahead of next week's european elections, leading candidates take part in a televised debate. profits under pressure at walmart as
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the world's just retailer battles the world's just retailer battles the rise of amazon as well as soaring tariffs on chinese goods. —— world's biggest retailer. and i will be speaking to rebecca harding, security expert but, about huawei and the latest news on a national emergency declared in the us. a warm welcome to the programme, briefing you on all you need to know in global news, business and sport. and you can be part of the conversation. tell us what you think.

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