as she made herfarewell speech. the fickleness of power. my guests this week... ashis ray of ray media, janet daley of the sunday telegraph, french algerian writer nabila ramdani and stryker mcguire of bloomberg markets. thank you india, said narendra modi last week. he'd just won an increased parliamentary majority in the world's largest democracy. so how did he manage this miracle and what will he do with his mandate? you have just come you havejust come back you have just come back from you havejust come back from india, tell us how he managed it. it is a remarkable result because conventional wisdom had it that has party would emerge as the largest single party but not with a majority on its own but it is not only won a majority for the second time but actually increased its majority. what is quite intriguing is the fact

that five years of modi we are at best a mixed result and more failures than successes. on the economy today unemployment in india is ata economy today unemployment in india is at a record level, i canadian distress is unprecedented. the insecurity of people is very worrying. —— i canadian distress. tension with china, the special relationship with nepal has been blown to smithereens. there is tension because of modi hugging donald trump because russia and china do not like it. everything put together it has not been exactly his finest hour. and it doesn't explain a growing majority. and yet he has one because i think this is a much

to watch majority it is an imposition of hinduism on the nation and this was coming and this is the second term and it will be reinforced during this second term of five years, india was founded as a secular republic so it is significant departure from the path its founders and constitution had laid out. is that any talk about changing the constitution is this more of a cultural majority? in terms of changing it is not only ma nifesto terms of changing it is not only manifesto but this has been there proclaimed object of all along. what do you think? this development of ethnic religious identity is interesting and we are seeing it enougha interesting and we are seeing it enough a lot of established democracies and it is conceivable

this is not a coincidence that india has been emerging economy into the world economy and the globalisation of the economy particularly the globalisation of labour seems to have created a sense of threat that causes people perhaps justifiably have created a sense of threat that causes people perhapsjustifiably to cling to adhere to our advert to a strong sense of ethnic or cultural identity. the sense you had been homogenised into a global economy seems to be threatening and off a lot of what we thought of a stable democracy. does that resonate with you that explanation for this otherwise an excitable result? the scale of the victory for modi gives a chance to push through a radical reform but it also might suggest that his poor record has actually been sanctioned and he will go back to looking after his own interest groups and he has tried to project himself as the underdog fighting the

status quo but he is clearly principally in the hands of big business and the reality is india remains a scandalously unequal society. whilst elite groups benefit from the economy and millions remain excluded. the exercise of democracy isa excluded. the exercise of democracy is a massive subject in britain at the moment but in terms of voting nothing compares to an indian election, 600 million people took pa rt election, 600 million people took part in the poll which saw modi re—elected with a landslide but it is built on a particularly disturbing populism rather than success disturbing populism rather than success and he has cultivated the american—style success story of april by from a railway station. the elites were rejected because dent gandhi represented this anglophone

westernised elite. it would be fair to say the liberals reject modi but what has happened successfully for the party as a consolidation of the hindu vote which was previously splintered and this consolidation is aimed against minorities particularly muslims. that is the form it takes the about the point as declining populism is all well and good but you have to understand why this is happening, why is there so much alienation and the satisfaction, is that a feeling that thatis satisfaction, is that a feeling that that is a cosmopolitan liberal elite effectively running the world. you cultural identity is regulatory too. toa certain cultural identity is regulatory too. to a certain extent it is a vote against the congress party is a people were fed up with them and have not quite moved away from that as yet although the congress did

offer socialjustice in their manifesto much more than the other party dead. it is a baffling result but it is a reality of democracy. back to the points we have been hearing about a elite, as the hinduism and opportunity to push the elites together with the dispossessed and a way that defeats the message? hindu big business have backed modi but the middle classes have also rallied behind the party, the poor are divided and in a first past the post system you get a majority and it happened last time as well, the vote has gone up but

not usually but any contest where 30% is good enough to win. not usually but any contest where 30% is good enough to winm 3096 is good enough to win. it seemed as tone was something many people like but now that has to be economic progress and fiscal and financial reform. is it fair to say five years is not long enough for me to deliver my programme? his big radical reform was the currency which backfired the idea that the monetisation he won his first term on the promise of a development he failed to deliver so at this campaign he went for ha rd core at this campaign he went for hardcore hinduism and that was the

message and then there was this conflict with pakistan which played out favourably and though it otherwise a field in terms of reforms his efforts i think in the end this emphasis on ultra nationalism has paid off. let's look at the international dimension, the prime minister of pakistan has congratulated modi and says they hope to work together for peace and perspective, is that realistic? first of all imran khan pots on situation is not as secure as made out to be. the army is always the bossin out to be. the army is always the boss in pakistan and therefore has powers are limited. having said that i think the two countries are poles apart in terms of agreeing on contentious issues like kashmir. that being the case a deal is not easy and you have two extremist forces ranged against each other,

one as the hindu right represented by modi and the army on the other side so to hardliners but it would be easy to come together but i think there could be movement, the last five years have been catastrophic failure in terms of relations between the two countries, gone from bad to worse. it can be rescued but i think confidence building measures can tick place and that could make a difference but i do not see a sea change in the deletion shut. —— relationship. i think the new exciting india that has been promised has not emerged, instead an appointment remains sky—high, no singapore style smart cities and pollution remains scandalous. meanwhile he has been pushing for

hindu supremacy is in a terrifying manner. he has been viewed as an international pariah because he has been stirring up anti—muslim riots which led to the massacre of muslims. the 2002 massacre people felt he did not do enough... those programmes were condemned earlier but he played on the notoriety and it was straight out of the trump handbook where he played on people's prejudices rather than decency. handbook where he played on people's prejudices rather than decencylj absolutely prejudices rather than decency.” absolutely loathe donald trump but he has delivered on some of the things he said he was going to, tax and so that has benefited the wealthy more than middle classes. but it is an interesting parallel because the rhetoric is aimed at what we would call respectable working class and what america cosy middle—class but in fact most of the advantages have gone to the wealthiest but any very hard line

capitalist society that actually does the wealthy invest more, of businesses allowed to be less regulated and more profitable that does help the population. it is bizarre to have a leader who is so successful in an election when he is delivered so little, that must mean the ethnic identity, cultural identity is overwhelming every other consideration. one last question on india's globally because you heard from some of the voters during the election campaign, modi has enabled us election campaign, modi has enabled us to hold our head high and be able power, in terms of where india fits on the map now, given what we have heard about the kind of unimpressive performance economically, when will the next five years see india under modi? it feels like india like many countries attending enron at a time

when globalisation has supposedly spread but is now retrenching and thatis spread but is now retrenching and that is all this reaction against robles asian and it seems that he has so much work to do at home that —— reaction against globalisation. eithne think he is tied down at home and unable to do much on the world stage. the whole project of democracy is being undermined any bids to turn india into a hindu nation. the indian electorate generally give government a second term and every fails this time i think it will be difficult to get re—elected. think it will be difficult to get re-elected. can you not have term limits? no limits. we leave on october

31st, deal or no deal. so said borisjohnson within hours of theresa may's departure speech in downing st. but we've heard promises about delivering brexit before. and borisjohnson can only deliver his if he wins the conservative party leadership contest in which favourites risk falling victim to the circular firing squad. the frontrunner almost never wins any tory leadership campaign but the issue about no deal, there is misunderstanding, no deal isn't a threat, it's what happens if you get to the end of the deadline and haven't got ideal. you cannot take it off the table, it is like trying to ta ke it off the table, it is like trying to take running out of petrol off the table, if you forget to fill the car you run out of petrol. you are stymied and we got to the deadline and didn't come out with no deal because we got an extension. macron is adamant there will be no further extension so by default become out with no deal. running out of petrol

is bad. the inevitability a few 20—something this is what happens. whether the heads of the european states are prepared to risk that because it will be very disruptive to economies of many european states particularly germany and the consequence of that as they would have to go back to their populations and explain why they were not prepared to make the concessions that would have prevented no deal. allah going to be prepared to do that? if they think they have a leader who is not a british leader who is not going to concede everything they want which is what theresa may did, they mightjust panic and say we do not really want no deal, we don't really want to follow the cliff even though i personally think that the people who have been so effective at preventing

this from happening at all would also be the business interests that did you particle interest would find a way around the no deal problem without really any significant article to within six months. everybody would have to do business and this would be sorted. nonetheless european heads of state would have to go back to the population and explain why they allowed no deal to happen. the only way to get a good us to prepare for no deal says borisjohnson. did you buy that argument? that is my argument. this country and by default europe are really suffering because of what is going on, everybody is. the uk economy is suffering, of course it is. some of these questions we have been run sites just these questions we have been run sitesjust deal with do these questions we have been run sites just deal with do you think it isa

sites just deal with do you think it is a good strategy for the conservative party candidate to take this line at this point? in order to get a good deal that you have to go back to the game of chicken.” think. you have to, you have to be prepared and say that. otherwise you have to accept whatever you offer. do you think the eu will blink on of the other candidates who ends up being prime minister or do you agree a deal will be done on those terms if you disable the stealing and hold your eyes open? i wish i knew. these things are applicable, you lucky blink but could also say we have had it and just go. the ice conciliatory

borisjohnson would be close it and just go. the ice conciliatory boris johnson would be close to the dreaded no deal but even no deal as a deceit because it will mean is that britain will create the illusion of an eu free year at dot from which it. renegotiating its deal with europe. the whole thing is a farce and mrs may simply the latest fall guy and the whole farce and there will be many more.” latest fall guy and the whole farce and there will be many more. i think boris johnson's statement that britain will quit the eu on 31st of october deal are a audio is predictable because the rank—and—file of the conservative party would like to hear that and he has to appeal to them in order to win. he could be more pragmatic if he becomes prime minister, on the other hand is still an uphill climb and has been for three years and

that has been no solution. parliament is divided so therefore it is not going to be an easy ride, i personally feel that i no deal be disruptive. in the end people will come to terms with it but it could be ten years from now, i don't thick it will be six months, i think be a far longer period of disruption and uncertainty and something that businesses do not want. so far we have not discussed the other candidates, so are these decisions going to be fun borisjohnson to ta ke going to be fun borisjohnson to take on and we going to see the circle firing squad inoculation? the party has, too close to the cliff to do that and this plethora of candidates as mythical, not of the people putting themselves forward as the ship candidates are just laying down a marker because they want for the future and also because they wa nt the future and also because they want to be included and a cabinet. there are three or four really serious people running for the

leadership and it is going to be a combination of two of them, it method here, a dream ticket with a prime ministerand a method here, a dream ticket with a prime minister and a chancellor and that will be the interesting thing, the combination. what will be the combination? i am not going to say. once the leadership race is over one of the things that will happen is pragmatism will have to sit n, the new leader, the new prime minister will come under the same pressures that theresa may was under but probably even more so from the business establishment, they are going to come down so hard on the next prime minister and that is going to be an interesting... we are ready know i think what boris thought about business which we cannot repeat. what he meant was i

think is stop allowing business to run the show because there are other concerns and interests. what is mystifying in this is why labour should be because so content to allow business to run the show and they are not, they are divided. but they are not, they are divided. but the idea that labour should be in favour of the moment our people, freedom and people means importing unemployed people from poor countries to provide cheap labour any rich countries. how can a party that says it is socialist approve of such a thing? labour are very confused and that is a bad advantage for the tories. i think theresa may pots emotional says everything about british politics, he was a successor of winston churchill bursting with a display of un—british emotion because brexit was not working and i thought she was going to slam the door of number ten behind to like a petula nt door of number ten behind to like a petulant teenager and in fact this

isa petulant teenager and in fact this is a self—styled public servant to three years ago claimed she could ta ke three years ago claimed she could take britain out of the eu in an orderly and smooth fashion and she spent all her time sense proving that she could not and this will be her legacy and i am afraid the situation will get even less smooth and orderly and mrs may has come to personify the terrifying stalemate which will grow far more extreme and will drive even more nominally refined public servants to...m will drive even more nominally refined public servants to... it is a great pity that the civil war of the conservative party has been imposed on the country. it is true that theresa may was dealt an unkind hand but the mistake that she made was to treat this as a negotiation between the conservative party and

the european union, she should have treated it as a negotiation between britain and the eu. from day one it should have been an all—party committee negotiating the exit mandated by the people. let's not back to the battles of the past look to the future, she did say on her parting once on friday that compromise would be necessary, others have said the problem was she like the particle skill, is it a difficult hand that somebody else can play successfully? or a difficult hand set for failure? she did huge amounts of compromise but only and one direction, she compromised enormously to eu demands repeatedly and the eu could very accustomed to that and were very happy to accept our compromises and no effort is to be compromise it has to go to ways effort is to mean anything at all. she was also

looking over her shoulder at the fundamentalist and her own party. she wasn't even talking to our own party or cabinet, she was running this with a clique of people who are entirely european eyes and the foreign office and treasury. is this a hand that can be applied to victory? what is a win? what is the way out for the next leader of the conservative party? i am not sure. personality can make a big difference, yes, but i am much can make a big enough difference. i think banning a general election we are headed for a no deal, i do not see any other way. we all disagree about whether no deal is a good deal about whether no deal is a good deal

about deal and that will be arguing about deal and that will be arguing about that in october and maybe six months after our maybe ten years. does anyone disagree with that? whoever comes next has to acknowledge the britain simply cannot cut all ties with the eu and concentrate on trade deals thousands of miles away. barring a general election ahead for a no deal? theresa may was put in the upper position of a she had to play along with a direct us estate guy and we headed for a no deal?” with a direct us estate guy and we headed for a no deal? i think infected it would be a seamless and fiction was transitioned to a training admin. the eu once to

punish us, they want to make an example and any country that left with a good deal would set a model for always other european countries that may think that is a good idea. ido that may think that is a good idea. i do not think the eu can give britain an easy ride then the project picks up. and after this weekend there will be proceeding towards a new eu in some respects we will be able to discuss that in future. thank you all stop. thank you all stop. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. hello. in some respects it is a bank holiday weekend that is going to suit all because there will be some sunshine around but also rain as well which will keep the gardeners and the growers happy.

the rain most persistent across the north and west but not exclusively, however that will just turn a little cooler and i am not sure that is going to please too many. the reason being these fronts sitting out in the atlantic, on their way and we are just starting to see the first signs of rain brushing in to western fringes of scotland and northern ireland and that is going to gradually drift east through the afternoon. here a little cooler, and more disappointing. but further south we have certainly more cloud and eventually showery outbreaks into north wales and north west england. the best of the sunshine in sheltered eastern areas to the east of the pennines. the sunshine will turn increasingly hazy into the afternoon but still pleasant enough with highest values of 23. similar to the last couple of days but cooler and fresher further north. that's because the rain continues and if anything it will turn heavier and more persistent into scotland overnight. we keep quite a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain into northern ireland and north west england, it stays largely dry and mild elsewhere.

but for sunday a change to come, the cold front gradually drifting steadily south and east through the day and it is going to weaken, to a band of cloud and showers across the midlands and the south—east corner but there will be some rain for the south—east but behind it drier and brighter and sunnier conditions with the exception the far north of scotland. what you start with on sunday you are not likely to finish with. still highest values of 21, not expected to last as the fronts move out of the way, plenty of isobars on the charts for monday coming from a north—westerly direction. so a cooler source that wind and that is going to continue to drive and cloud and rain through scotland, northern ireland and north and west facing coasts of england and wales. sheltered eastern areas still seeing the best of the drier and brighter weather but noticeably fresher for all, particularly in scotland where it stays cool and disappointing, highest values in the south between 16 and 18. it is half term for many and it

looks like that is set to continue, temperatures just a little below weather should be for the time of year with further outbreaks of rain.

good afternoon. the race is on to find the next prime minister, after theresa may resigned yesterday. mrs may said she will stand down onjune 7th but continue as prime minister while the leadership contest takes place. five conservatives have already announced they will stand but others may also put their names forward. party bosses expect a new leader to be chosen by the end ofjuly.