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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  May 26, 2019 2:30am-3:01am BST

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this is bbc news, the headlines: president trump's state visit to japan continues with a round of golf with prime minister shinzo abe.
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the two leaders are also due to tackle the issue of trade imbalances. but the japanese economy minister says he doesn't expect talks to lead to an agreement. ukraine's new president, volodymyr zelensky, has called on russia to comply with an order by an international tribunal to release naval personnel and vessels seized last year off the coast of crimea. russia said the court in germany had no jurisdiction in the case. with nearly all the results now in, voters in a referendum in ireland have backed liberalising the country's divorce laws. it would give politicians the power to reduce the time that couples must spend apart before they can divorce. now on bbc news, dateline london.
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this week... extraordinary scenes from two great democracies. india's narendra modi showered in rose petals after winning the mandate of millions. and britain's theresa may anguished and alone in downing street as she made herfarewell speech. the fickleness of power. my guests this week... ashis ray of ray media, janet daley of the sunday telegraph, french algerian writer nabila ramdani and stryker mcguire of bloomberg markets. thank you india, said narendra modi last week. he'd just won an increased parliamentary majority in the world's largest democracy. so how did he manage this miracle and what will he do with his mandate? you havejust come back from india, tell us how he managed it. it is a remarkable result because conventional wisdom had it that has
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party would emerge as the largest single party but not with a majority on its own but it is not only won a majority for the second time but actually increased its majority. what is quite intriguing is the fact that five years of modi we are at best a mixed result and more failures than successes. on the economy today unemployment in india agrarian distress is unprecedented. the insecurity of people is very worrying. relations with pakistan are difficult. tension with china, the special relationship with nepal has been
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blown to smithereens. there is tension because of modi hugging donald trump because russia and china do not like it. everything put together it has not been exactly his finest hour. and it doesn't explain a growing majority. majoritarianism, an imposition of hinduism on the nation and this was coming and this is the second term and it will be reinforced during this second term of five years, india was founded as a secular republic so it is significant departure from the path its founders and constitution had laid out. is there any talk about changing the constitution or is this more
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of a cultural majoritarianism? in terms of changing it is not in the bjp‘s manifesto, but this has been their proclaimed object all along. what do you think? this development of ethnic religious identity is interesting and we are seeing it enough a lot of established democracies and it is conceivable this is not a coincidence that india has been emerging economy into the world economy and the globalisation of the economy, particularly the globalisation of labour seems seems to have created a sense of threat that causes people perhaps justifiably to cling to adhere to our advert to a strong sense of ethnic or cultural identity. the sense you are being homogenised into a global economy seems to be threatening an awful lot of what we thought
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of as stable democracies. does that resonate with you that explanation for this otherwise an excitable result? the scale of the victory for modi gives a chance to push through radical reforms but it also might suggest that his poor record has actually been sanctioned and he will go back to looking after his own interest groups and he has tried to project himself as the underdog fighting the status quo but he is clearly principally in the hands of big business and the reality is india remains a scandalously unequal society. whilst elite groups benefit from the economy and millions remain excluded. the exercise of democracy is a massive subject in britain at the moment but in terms of voting nothing compares to an indian election, 600 million people took part in the poll which saw modi re—elected with a landslide but it is built on a particularly disturbing populism rather than success and he has cultivated the american—style success story
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of april by from a railway station. the elites were rejected because dent gandhi represented this anglophone westernised elite. it would be fair to say the liberals reject modi but what has happened successfully for the bjp is the consolidation of the hindu vote, which was previously splintered, and this consolidation is aimed against minorities, particularly muslims. that is the form it takes the about the point as declining populism is all well and good but you have to understand why this is happening, why is there so much
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alienation and the satisfaction, is that a feeling that that there is a cosmopolitan liberal elite effectively running the world? your cultural identity is retreating too. to a certain extent it is a vote against the congress party is a people were fed up with them and have not quite moved away from that as yet although the congress did offer social justice in their manifesto much more than the other party dead. it is a baffling result but it is a reality of democracy. back to the points we have been hearing about an elite, as the hinduism an opportunity to push the elites together with the dispossessed and a way that defeats the message?
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hindu big business have backed modi but the middle classes have also rallied behind the party, the poor are divided and in a first past the post system you get a majority and it happened last time but in a multi—cornered contest where 30% is good enough to win. it seemed as tone was something many people liked but now there has to be economic progress and fiscal and financial reform. he has said he will deliver some of that. is it fair to say five years is not long enough for me to deliver my programme? his big radical reform
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was the currency which backfired the idea that de—monetisation he won his first term on the promise of a development he failed to deliver so at this campaign he went for hardcore hinduism and that was the message and then there was this conflict with pakistan which played out favourably and though it otherwise failed in terms of reforms his efforts i think in the end this emphasis on ultra nationalism has paid off. let's look at the international dimension, the prime minister of pakistan, imran khan, has congratulated modi and says they hope to work together for peace and prosperity, is that realistic?
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first of all imran khan's position is not as secure as made out to be. the army is always the boss in pakistan and therefore has powers are limited. having said that i think the two countries are poles apart in terms of agreeing on contentious issues like kashmir. that being the case a deal is not easy and you have two extremist forces ranged against each other, one as the hindu right represented by modi and the army on the other side so to hardliners but it would be easy to come together but i think there could be movement, the last five years have been catastrophic failure in terms of relations between the two countries, gone from bad to worse. from bad to worse. it can be rescued but i think confidence building measures can take place and that could make a difference but i do not see a sea change in the relationship.
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i think the new exciting india that has been promised has not emerged, instead unemployment remains sky—high, no singapore style smart cities and pollution remains scandalous. meanwhile he has been pushing for hindu supremacy in a terrifying manner. he has been viewed as an international pariah because he has been stirring up anti—muslim riots which led to the massacre of muslims. the 2002 massacre people felt he did not do enough... minister of gujarat... those pogroms were condemned earlier but he played on the notoriety and it was straight out of the trump handbook where he played on people's prejudices rather than decency. i absolutely loathe donald trump but he has delivered on some
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of the things he said he was going to, tax and so that has and that has benefited the wealthy more than middle classes. but it is an interesting parallel because the rhetoric is aimed at what we would call respectable working class and what america cosy calls the middle class, but in fact most of the advantages have gone to the wealthiest but any very hard line capitalist society that actually does the wealthy invest more, of businesses allowed to be less regulated and more profitable that does help the population. it is bizarre to have a leader who is so successful in an election when he is delivered so little, that must mean the ethnic identity, cultural identity is overwhelming every other consideration. one last question on india's role globally because you heard from some of the voters during the election
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campaign, that modi has enabled us to hold our head high and be a world power, in terms of where india fits on the map now, given what we have heard about the kind of unimpressive performance economically, when will the next five years see india under modi? it feels like india like many countries attending enron at a time —— inward at a time when globalisation has supposedly spread but is now retrenching and that is all this reaction against glabalisation and it seems that he has so much work to do at home that. i think he is tied down at home and unable to do much on the world stage.
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the whole project of democracy is being undermined any bids to turn india into a hindu nation. the indian electorate generally give government a second term and every and if he fails this time i think it will be difficult to get re—elected. can you not have term limits? no limits. we leave on october 31st, deal or no deal. so said borisjohnson within hours of theresa may's departure speech in downing st. but we've heard promises about delivering brexit before. and borisjohnson can only deliver his if he wins the conservative party leadership contest in which favourites risk falling victim to the circularfiring squad. the frontrunner almost never wins any tory leadership campaign but the issue about no deal, there is misunderstanding, no deal isn't a threat, it's what happens if you get to the end of the deadline and haven't got ideal. you cannot take it off the table, it is like trying to take running out of petrol off the table, if you forget to fill the car you run out of petrol.
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you are stymied and we got to the deadline and didn't come out with no deal because we got an extension. macron is adamant there will be no further extension so by default become out with no deal. running out of petrol is bad. the inevitability a few 20—something this is what happens. whether the heads of the european states are prepared to risk that because it will be very disruptive to economies of many european states particularly germany and the consequence of that as they would have to go back to their populations and explain why they were not prepared to make the concessions that would have prevented no deal. are they going to be prepared to do that? if they think they have a leader who is not a british leader
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who is not going to concede everything they want which is what theresa may did, they mightjust panic and say we do not really want no deal, we don't really want to follow the cliff even though i personally think that the people who have been so effective at preventing this from happening at all would also be the business interests that did you particle interest would find a way around the no deal problem without really any significant article to within six months. everybody would have to do business and this would be sorted. nonetheless european heads of state would have to go back to the population and explain why they allowed no deal to happen. the only way to get a good us to prepare for no deal says boris johnson. did you buy that argument?
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that's my argument! this country and by default europe are really suffering because of what is going on, everybody is. the uk economy is suffering, of course it is. you think? some of these questions we have been a few times so do you think it is a good strategy for the conservative party candidate to take this line at this point? in order to get a good deal that you have to go back to the game of chicken. i think. you have to, you have to be prepared and say that. otherwise you have to accept whatever you offer.
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do you think the eu will blink or will boris johnson or one of the other candidates who ends up being prime minister or do you agree a deal will be done on those terms if you disable the stealing and hold your eyes open? i wish i knew. these things are applicable, europe could blink but could also say we have had it and just go. the not conciliatory boris johnson would be close to the dreaded no deal but even no deal as a deceit because it will mean is that britain will create the illusion of an eu free year dot from which it will start renegotiating its deal with europe. the whole thing is a farce and mrs may simply the latest fall guy and the whole farce and there will be many more. i think borisjohnson‘s statement
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that britain will quit the eu on 31st of october deal or no deal is predictable because the rank—and—file of the conservative party would like to hear that and he has to appeal to them in order to win. he could be more pragmatic if he becomes prime minister, on the other hand it's still an uphill climb and has been for three years and there has been no solution. parliament is divided so therefore it is not going to be an easy ride, i personally feel that i no deal be disruptive. in the end people will come to terms with it but it could be ten years from now, i don't think it will be six months, i think be a far longer period of disruption and uncertainty and something that businesses do not want. janet, so far we have not discussed the other candidates, so are these decisions going to be fun borisjohnson to take
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in your view or are we going to see the circle firing squad inoculation? the party has, too close to the cliff to do that and this plethora of candidates as mythical, a lot of the people putting themselves forward as the leadership candidates are just laying down a marker because they want for the future and also because they want to be included in the cabinet. there are three or four really serious people running for the leadership and it is going to be a combination of two of them, here, a dream ticket with a prime minister and a chancellor and that will be the interesting thing, the combination. what will be the combination? i am not going to say. once the leadership race is over one of the things that will happen is pragmatism will have to set in, the new leader, the new prime minister will come under the same pressures that theresa may was under but probably even more so from the business establishment, they are going
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to come down so hard on the next prime minister and that is going to be an interesting... we already know i think what boris thought about business which we cannot repeat. what he meant was, i think, i have known him for 20 years, is stop allowing business to run the show because there are other concerns and interests. what is mystifying in this is why labour should be because so content to allow business to run the show and they are not, they are divided. but the idea that labour should be in favour of the moment our people, freedom and people means importing unemployed people from poor countries to provide cheap labour any rich countries. how can a party that says it is socialist approve of such a thing? labour are very confused and that's an advantage
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for the tories. i think theresa may pots emotional says everything about british politics, he was a successor of winston churchill bursting with a display of un—british emotion because brexit was not working and i thought she was going to slam the door of number 10 behind her like a petulant teenager and in fact this is a self—styled public servant to three years ago claimed she could take britain out of the eu in an orderly and smooth fashion and she spent all her time sense proving that she could not and this will be her legacy and i am afraid the situation will get even less smooth and orderly and mrs may has come to personify the terrifying stalemate which will grow far more extreme and will drive even more nominally refined public servants to... to tears. if they may make a couple
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of points. it is a great pity that the civil war of the conservative party has been imposed on the country. it is true that theresa may was dealt an unkind hand but the mistake that she made was to treat this as a negotiation between the conservative party and the european union, she should have treated it as a negotiation between britain and the eu. in other words, from day one it should have been an all—party committee negotiating the exit as mandated by the people. with a marxist labour party who has divided itself. let's not back to the battles of the past look to the future, she did say on her parting words on friday that compromise would be necessary, others have said the problem was she like the political skill, is it a difficult hand that somebody else can play successfully? or a difficult hand set forfailure?
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janet. it is not set for failure. she did huge amounts of compromise but only and one direction, she compromised enormously to eu demands repeatedly and the eu could very accustomed to that and were very happy to accept our compromises and no effort is to be compromise it has to go to ways effort is to mean anything at all. she was also looking over her shoulder at the fundamentalists in her own party. she wasn't even talking to her own party or cabinet, she was running this with a clique of people who are entirely europeanised in the foreign office and treasury. is this a hand that can be applied to victory? what is a win? what is the way out for the next leader of the conservative party?
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well, i'm really not sure. personality can make a big difference, yes, but i'm not sure it can make a big enough difference. i think, barring a general election we're headed for a no deal, i do not see any other way. we all disagree about whether no deal is a good deal about deal and that will be arguing about that in october and maybe six months after our maybe ten years. does anyone disagree with that? whoever comes next has to acknowledge the britain simply cannot cut all ties with the eu and concentrate on trade deals thousands of miles away. nobody wants to cut... barring a general election we're headed for a no deal? theresa may was put in the upper
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position of a she had to play along with a ridiculour deceit... and we headed for a no deal? i think it would be a seamless and fiction was transitioned to a training admin. the eu once to punish us, they want to make an example and any country that left with a good deal would set a model for always other european countries that may think that is a good idea. i do not think the eu can give britain an easy ride then the eu project breaks up. and after this weekend there will be proceedings towards a new eu in some respects we will be able to discuss that in future. thank you all for coming in today. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye.
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hello. if you had some sunshine on saturday you are likely to see some rain on the sunday. turning was showery as it does. the persistent rain continuing across northern scotland, but starting to ease from the central belt in southern scotland. sunshine behind any rain. one or two showers. a brisk westerly wind. gusty across northern scotland, combine that with the rain, temperatures 9— 10 celsius. elsewhere 14— i9 celsius. maybe 21 across elsewhere 14— 19 celsius. maybe 21 across east anglia and south—east england. any patchy rain will clear through the evening. we will keep rain going across scotland. more showery in nature. elsewhere mainly dry stop simply clear spells. cooler than the night just dry stop simply clear spells. cooler than the nightjust gone. lowe's 7—
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11 celsius stop bank holiday monday, ran across northern scotland starting to think further southwards. elsewhere it is a day of sunny spells and showers. showers more frequently further north and west you are. try the further south and east you are. —— dry up.
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this is bbc news, i'm reged ahmad. our top stories: teeing off before tackling trade — president trump takes in a round of golf with prime minister abe on his state visit to japan. with most ballots counted, people in ireland have voted overwhelmingly in favour of making it easier to get a divorce. president trump is beginning the first full day of his visit to japan. mr trump is currently playing golf with the japanese prime minister, shinzo abe. he'll also be the first world leader to meet the new emperor.

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