hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: the beast is here — and i'm not talking about anyone on the panel. no, the beast is the nickname for the armoured limousine of the president of the united states and it's in london this week because so is he. protocol says state visitors avoid expressing a view on the internal politics of their host, but donald trump has already waded in on the tory leadership contenders and we shall follow him. my guests today, ian martin of the times, thomas kielinger, author and longtime correspondent of die welt, stephanie baker of bloomberg news and marc roche of le point.

welcome to you all. thousands of police officers on call up, londoners bracing for traffic gridlock, protestors blowing up their trump baby blimp and protocol officers reminding themselves to breathe. the 45th president of the united states is coming to see the queen on monday. and while the planners have gamed out every other conceivable risk, there is nothing much they can do to plan against the protocol risks presented by the man himself. stephanie, starters. what are the risks? in addition to his interview in the sun where he was critical of theresa may and her handling of brexit, there will be another intervention of some sort, some other protocol problem with the queen. he's coming here to push his america first agenda but really for him i think the focus is about basking in the glory of the royal family. the optics of this are great back

in the us where the royal family is extremely popular. he positioned himself as an anglophile, his mother is from scotland and i think he thinks of himself as building a political dynasties of his own. i think he views it as having parallels with the royal family which is why he is bringing his grown—up children to have a meeting with the next generation of royals. i think he will be kept out of the public eye as much as possible because of the security risks and the likelihood of protests but whether or not he meets with borisjohnson or nigel farage, that will certainly cause a furore. last time it was the anniversary of d—day, historical context, now it is a political crisis with a vulnerable prime minister. with an open field for successes.

it's a delicate moment for donald. the timing is a sub optimal in diplomatic terms but the british get themselves into a terrible tizz about this and about trump and there will undoubtedly be very large demonstrations which i think i am right in saying there won't be in france. i think the french take a more grown—up attitude to this. i'm not a trump fan, he is highly unpredictable, in the last 24, 48 hours he has started another run on markets because of while tweeting about mexico and trade so he is a crazy personality but the british seem to take it on themselves that they've got to demonstrate on behalf of the world. i think we should be a bit more relaxed about it and i suspect the queen will be very relaxed about it. she's seen all manner of things in her long and successful reign. thomas, what do you think?

we have seen in the past, donald trump holding theresa may's hand and giving her instruction on how she should be handling brexit. do you expect more of that or do you expect holding of borisjohnson or nigel farage‘s hand and "i told you so" on brexit? well, metaphorically speaking, he's already holding borisjohnson's hand because he endorsed him so heavily. one thing i must say is that a source of embarrassment a year ago was the military parade at windsor castle which is now going not to be taking place with the queen because last year his mighty big figure eclipsed the queen behind him who is looking anywhere but where she wanted to go. this parade will be attended between trump and prince charles which is a very wise decision not to allow a likely gaffe to happen. the country at large, britain is a great host for ceremonial occasions, its traditional, and trump's image is changing.

i read about a recent poll here in britain which says a lot of people are now more relaxed about trump and there seems to be a majority of people who welcome this visit or have nothing against it and i think that's good because we have to get away from this sort of bad—mouthing of other foreign leaders and have to establish reasonable relationships. it may be for the good. marc, not everybody is in that headspace. jeremy corbyn has denied an invitation to the state banquet and calling double standards because he went to the state banquet when president xijinping was here.

similarly, the speakerjohn bercow, xijinping got an invitation to speak in westminster and donald trump hasn't. we are not seeing everybody rushing out the welcome mat. no and this is a bit strange because america and britain are so close. culturally it's so important, this link between the two countries and also the royal family now has a american member, meghan, and so i think trump should have got the same reception as any other. in general, the reception is not so controversial. the only controversial one was the emperor of japan because of the treatment of prisoners of war in world war ii. the real problem of trump's visit will be china because the british in a post—brexit world, china will be at the centre and have to cut any ties with 56 and britain and at the centre of chinese money in europe and the recycling

of chinese money via hong kong. chinese students are very important, tourism. china and nuclear, there is not another country or neuter which has sold nuclear to china so it's important for britain that trump does not threaten the chinese relationship —— another country in europe which has sold nuclear. it has already caused problems, the problem of how deeply or whether at all to build huawei into uk's sg infrastructure. i assume he will argue against this again, saying it will impact intelligence sharing.

broadly speaking, stepping back, it highlights the awkward situation the uk is in internationally with brexit on the horizon. it's even more dependent on the us for the prospect of a free trade deal, which is why despite trump being very unpopular, they need to keep him on sight so they can dangle the hope that they will get a free trade deal with the us even though trump is in the middle of a trade war with china, is picking trade fights with mexico, in reality, uk, us trade is tiny compared to the eu so i think it will be empty words and if we do get to the stage of negotiating a uk, us trade deal, it will be very much in the us advantage, just as he said and criticised theresa may for her negotiations with the eu, saying she gave away all the advantage to the eu, well, when it comes to the us, the advantage in a trade deal will definitely be in washington, dc. it's difficult for the british political establishment

because post—financial crisis when britain's banks were far too the political establishment made a long—term bet on china and on ties with china. the cameron and osborne golden era was huge. cameron and osborne even in opposition had made that calculation and london would become — and is — a global financial hub but that it was going to be a place that could suck in as much chinese and asian investment as possible

and that this would give britain an advantage in the future and the problem for britain now is, having made all those ties and being so closely embedded with the chinese regime or with chinese companies, is that trump is now saying, you can't have it both ways, you have to choose between your links with america which are incredibly close on things like intelligence relationships, you have to choose between that or china and the british are trying at the moment to avoid answering that question. all these questions that trump puts to the british cannot be answered at the moment because the country has a lack of leadership. we don't know who's going to lead the country and nobody can tell trump, that's what we're going to advocate in the next few weeks and months. that's why this is the one question which hands over his visit, the china trade in the iran issue where britain is on the camp of the europeans and holding on to the deal we have with iran with us trump isn't so now these questions can be solved while he is here and so the ceremonial aspects i'm afraid will outweigh anything in the substantive field.

there will be very little substance emerging other than the continuing good vibes between americans and english culture. because brexit is the overriding concern. and america is not concerned with that. it is not solved and america is not concerned even if trump is giving his advice on brexit. we will come back to that in the second half of the programme. on the visit, thomas says it will be ceremonial rather than substantive but what we haven't talked about is protests and trump is somebody who excites quite a lot of strong feelings on both sides and as he moves around in the beast that i mentioned, complete with the fridge full of his own blood and other accoutrements, will the protesters get close to him?

in france you have protests all the time but not for foreign visitors and so there is a lot of protest in france with the yellow vests. here there is no protest, except for trump, and ifind that very interesting that he's such hit figure here when in france, he's just the american president. stephanie, you made an interesting point about the dynasty building and the sense of building a relationship with the next generation of royals but it was noticeable at the time when prince harry and meghan had their baby that the obamas were swift to send congratulations but trump was much slower and although he will be meeting the prince of wales, organic farming and climate change aren't his favourite topics. is there any common ground?

i think there is a huge gulf between that and issues that prince charles cares about. there is a common love of scotland but do they wade into those issues where they know there are differences? trump's said he had no idea that meghan markle had said nasty things about him which is hard to believe that he would not be aware of something like that. i think this is all about the photo op, it's inviting the british royal family into his reality tv show and projecting those images back home and i think that's what he wants to get out of this and he will get it. barring some sort of protocol gaffe with the queen, that will be a net positive for him back home.

trump has also spoken about the next leader of this country. mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the excellentest of them all? donald trump has weighed in to say boris johnson would make an excellent choice for tory leader. it's time for us to inspect the field and the obstacles in their race. where do you think we've got to? the race hasn't even properly started yet. it formally starts on june the 10th and the way it works is that you will have a list of people which will be like the grand national or kensington derby, you'll have this line up of anything from a dozen to 20 people and they will put themselves forward and be whittled down by tory mps in parliament, about 300 of them, then the winning two, personally i think it is likely to be boris johnson versus michael gove, the environment secretary, and that is then chosen in the month ofjuly by the tory membership.

do you think the endorsement from president trump helps boris? i don't think it really makes that much difference. i think it is factored in and the reason it looks as though the tories, unless boris self—destructs which is possible in the next five or six weeks, but if he does win, he will win because the tories are facing an existential crisis with the rise of the brexit party which threatens to eliminate the tory party, which is technically almost bust financially and either has to win back those brexit party votes or it is dead. the reason you might press the emergency button and send for a candidate like boris is that in that existential crisis, you then need the biggest, most popular, most celebrity style politician to try and bust through that so if boris does win, it will be for that reason.

are we agreed it is an existential crisis? it's an existential crisis all right but i'm not quite happy with ian 's analysis. imagine the tory leadership might go for boris because he has the charisma to match nigel farage. they are poised to go for him because he might contest nigel farage more successfully than anyone else but there is nothing in his candidacy which gives me confidence to think that people are convinced he is the best leader of the country and so they are splitting theirjudgment. for the upcoming fight, there's no definitive judgment on the quality and talent of boris johnson for being the leader.

but there is a second component to the question. the tory mps and members have to answer the first question about, can this person effectively put the brexit party out of business and get the tories back in business? the second question is, can they then win a general election and see offjeremy corbyn? jeremy corbyn is in real trouble whoever succeeds him as labour party leader. on the money subject, we've seen the cbi, the confederation of british industry, 190,000 members, organisations saying, prove, please, tories, that you are the party of business, don't vote no deal. does the money matter they are? pre—referendum, the tory party was the party of business and you saw a wide range of donors. since the referendum,

those cbi members went elsewhere anyway so that's propping another crisis we are facing. the challenge on the funding front may be from the brexit party than the likes of the cbi because the remaining faction dominates there. but for sure there are facing a crisis. if there is a general election in autumn, they will be facing a disadvantage. they are so ignoring... the main tory leaders that seem to be in the running are so intent on ignoring the views of business. it was once that they were considered very close. this is not about whether you are close to business on issues of lowering their tax rate, this is aboutjobs and living standards so where do those voters go? some of those voters are peeling off

and supporting the liberal democrats and the lib dems may suck up some of those donors as well. i think at the end, when it comes to jeremy corbyn, money will come back to the tories because if the tories' leader is the only one to beat jeremy corbyn, there is a real threat perceived with nationalisation, with higher tax and all that sort of thing, business will flock back to the tories. do you agree, ian? in which case it's not the existential crisis? i think it is a confusion about the cbi. the cbi is an important organisation but it doesn't speak for all of business, it speaks for big business and big corporate britain. they say that they have many small to medium enterprises. sure, but where the tories have drawn their money from, they rely, unlike the labour party which gets most of its money from the trade unions, the tory party has relied principally on extremely wealthy individuals who are unlikely to be members of the cbi.

these are people who run hedge funds or have grown a family business and they are on strike at the moment because they have had enough of theresa may. theyjust want in some vague, unspecified way, brexit sorted and i think it's likely that in a hurry, if the tories get a new leader, it should be relatively straightforward for that person to turn around to those wealthy individuals and say, the threat is an imminent general election. i think there will be an election soon, "start funding the tories again." europeans are fed up with the british... while this is going on, you'd have had elections to —— europe have had elections too. do you think another leader of the government here should wish

to call for another extension to article 50 and would they get it? emmanuel macron who is the main opponent to an extension of article 50 has done very well in the european election. he has reinforced compared to the mess in germany at the moment and so there will be a lot of support because the europeans are fed up. they have more important issues than brexit, the budget, rebalancing the structural funds, the foreign policy, defence. brexit has taken all their time. new commission, new design for europe, britain out and i don't think they will get an extension especially if boris johnson is the leader. do you think anyone in the tory leadership cares about whether they get

an extension or not? they cared about it a lot. the problem with the extension argument and this is why people are being too complacent, once you get a new british prime minister, there won't really be anyone to negotiate with the because you are awaiting the new commission. jean—claude juncker and michel barnier will still technically be there but have both technically said they are not moving so i knew prime minister will have very little scope to talk to europe to get anything back. the problem with the extension is they will have to give a guarantee to tory party members there won't be an extension and i think it is the existential crisis for the tories are so serious that if they don't get britain out of the european union by christmas, the tory party is potentially finished so unless an extension

was in very specific circumstances to prepare for a no deal on both sides or because angela merkel gave an indication that there could be movement, if the first indication is to turn to the british in autumn and say, i heard what happened with the brexit party, i don't have any donors, i think i'm going to delay brexit by another three or six months, it doesn't really work. the centre against an extension is there is still the belief in brussels and berlin and france, there is still thing is to solve before we have a voice. we have no certainty if a no—deal brexit will succeed or not because if boris insists on a no—deal brexit there will be a revolt in parliament

and parliament won't go for it. how do you solve that conundrum? if parliament refuses it, it's a vote of no confidence. the likelihood on election, we are likely in limbo. what about the other parties? we got an opposition with their own existential issues. stephanie, how do they play into those complex scenarios we are facing? given that labour's position on brexit is such a mess, they got other challenges of anti—semitic investigations going on that until they clean up their position on brexit, they will continue to bleed votes to the greens and liberal democrats. the resurgence behind the liberal democrats will continue as long as the labour crisis is still in full swing. the liberal democrats have their own leadership

campaign going on. exactly, so i'm not sure that will change the lib dem dynamic but i think voting patterns have changed so much, as long as there is brexit uncertainty, people are no longer voting along traditional lines of high taxes, low spending, low spending, high taxes, it has changed the whole political dynamic. the party system in the uk is potentially disintegrating, it's not just the tories who have problems. in the most recent poll this week, the lib dems are on top on 24, brexit party second on 22, labour and the tories are tied for third on 19. i think it's more likely there may not be a general election because of both labour and the conservatives looked like they were going to lose that

badly, why would they vote for no confidence? it would be like turkeys voting for christmas. an election by accident is where we are going to have to leave the various scenarios. thank you all so much. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. the first half of the weekend and the first day ofjune brought a burst of heat and sunshine for some of us. scenes like this were repeated across many southern and eastern parts of the uk with a feed of warm airfrom iberia lifting temperatures to the west of london, close to 28 degrees, the warmest day of the year so far. towards the north—west it was not as warm as that because we had more

cloud and outbreaks of rain and that cooler weather is heading in everyone‘s direction over the next 24—48 hours. low pressure taking charge of the scene in this cold front here bringing outbreaks of rain. behind that we have cooler rabbit ahead of the cold front for most of us we're getting off to very mild and muggy start to sunday. we will see heavy rain continuing to drift across scotland and then here is a cool front, a band of cold and showers drifting eastwards. as we see the showers moving further they will squash the heat increasingly into eastern parts of england. parts of the south—east and east anglia could again reach 26, 27, 28 degrees through the afternoon but further west cooler and fresher. carterfrom burning him 19 or 20 degrees at best with a band of cloud and showers that could temporarily bring thunder and lightning. for northern ireland, bright skies for much of the day but showers return later on.

for scotland we see a band of cloud and showers continue to drift eastwards and for all of us it will be breezy. as we had deep into sunday evening we see a swell here, an area of low pressure turning windy across northern ireland scotland with hefty showers as well. all of us into cooler air though, by monday morning, so temperatures as we start the day between nine and 12 degrees. there is the cold front, all of us behind that front on monday. so a cooler, fresher feel but with low pressure in charge and some fairly tightly squeezed isobars on that chart, it is going to be windy, particularly across the northern half of the uk where we will also see quite a few showers, further south not as many showers, there will be one or two but most places will be dry with some spells of sunshine. however, no more mid— high 20s. most places in the mid—to—high teens. through the coming week it will feel much cooler with rain at times but also some sunshine.

welcome to bbc news. i'm reged ahmad. our top stories: jubilation for liverpool — crowned winners of the european champions league after beating tottenham 2—0. huge celebrations in the spanish capital. it's the sixth time liverpool have won europe's premier football contest. brillant! awesome! a0 years i have been following them. a0 years. and they love them! in other news: an explosion at a weapons factory in russia — the day after its director is fired for violating